For years Stephen Coniglio has shown the ability be to be among one of the best premium midfielders. Is 2020 the season we see Cogs put it all together for 222 games?
PLAYER PROFILE
Name: Stephen Coniglio
Age: 26
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield
2019 Highest Score:
192 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
207 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)
2019 Average:
103.6 (AFLFantasy)
101.2 (SuperCoach)
SuperCoach Price: $549,500
AFLFantasy Price: $769,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $749,400
WHY IS HE RELEVANT?
It was a crazy 2019 season for Stephen Coniglio. After considering his future for a majority of the year ‘Cogs’ officially committed to being a one-club player. Additionally, he had to sit on the sidelines while his side was belted from pillar to post in the Grand Final.
Along with all of this happening throughout the seasons, he missed seven games across the year with multiple injuries. Despite this, he was still able to average 26 possessions, six score involvements, five clearances, four marks four tackles and four inside 50’s a game when fit and firing Cogs is one of the elite midfielders in the AFL.
From 15 games last season in AFLFantasy he had nine scores over the ton including four over 120. That number may look small. However, when you drill into those 120+ scores, he goes on and converts them into monster scores. 126, 146, 161 and 192 was what he delivered when getting over 120.
In SuperCoach he joined the elite company of scoring over 200. He did this in round 11 against the Gold Coast Suns with a 207. Across the season he had nine tons, and four over 130.
His fantasy football numbers look sharp, but due to a knee injury early against the Tigers in round 17, he scored a 0 across all formats. Because of this, he’s been given a natural ‘discount’ to his pricing. I’m generally anti ‘removing’ injury affected games, but given it was within the opening minutes in this instance I’ll make an exception.
His AFLFantasy average of 104 is excellent, but if we remove then injury impacted game, it boosts up seven points to 111. Similarly in SuperCoach his average of 101 is more than respectable, but with the injured game removed then he spikes up to 108.
Before 2019 ‘Cogs’ has shown a continued ability to put up a stable frequency and ceiling of hundreds.
In 2018 he played 21 games and averaged 110 in AFLFantasy which included 15 tons and six scores over 120. In SuperCoach he averaged 108 which was made up of 12 tons, and half of those were 120 or higher.
A closer look at this season reveals to us how strong his value is in the rolling lockout formats of SuperCoach and AFLDreamTeam. Over the opening six weeks of that season, he delivered numbers that make him a captaincy loophole candidate. In SuperCoach he scored: 129, 120, 124, 116, 116 & 93. For AFLDreamTeam he posted 146, 120, 111, 121, 112 & 102.
Embed from Getty ImagesMY TAKE
One of the critical factors for the scoring variation being so drastic for Coniglio this year was he found a way to pick up niggling injuries across the season. First, it was a hand injury, then corkie and a knee concern before finally succumbing to another knee problem that cost him a grand final spot. This stop-start season with injury meant he got no consistency in his game and was also protected in-game with multiple times being used deep forward.
In terms of recovery from his season-ending knee injury, everything is tracking positively. Many within the GWS camp believed that should the Grand Final have been a few days late that Cogs would’ve been able to play. So it’s no surprise to hear that he’s a strong performer on the track. Right across this preseason, he’s been leading from the front both metaphorically and literally. It looks like the captaincy sits well upon his shoulders.
One of the big question marks around Stephen Coniglio isn’t about him, but rather about who he shares the multi bye with. Arguably, round 14 is the most stacked for midfield premiums. Rory Sloane, Matt Crouch, Brad Crouch, Josh Dunkley, Jackson Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli, Josh Kelly, Callan Ward, Tim Taranto and Tom Mitchell are just some of the candidate’s coaches are considering. Where you rank Cogs amongst these names will give you the information you need to know about whether he is someone you should select or not.
I have no concern that he will score well in the Giants midfield. He’s shown across multiple seasons no matter who is missing or playing he scores well. He’s also a dangerous option when resting inside the Giants forward 50.
We rarely get built-in value into premiums, but with Cogs, we have it. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s in my starting squad. He’s shown over two seasons he can go 110, and we are paying for much less than that.
I like him for value in SuperCoach, but is his 108-110 potential enough for you to start him? I don’t have him as a top 8 averaging midfielder in that format, so I’ll instead choose to upgrade to him.
DRAFT DECISION
Given his ‘injury affected’ average, he’s sliding down some draft boards a little further than I rank him. The positive is he could be available late in the second round/early third which given I rate him as a top-eight midfielder is a great value pick up.
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