Dive into the fantasy prospects of Taylor Adams as he transitions to the Sydney Swans, examining his value and potential role in your fantasy football structures.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Taylor Adams is known in the AFL for his tenacious and hard-nosed style of play, making him a formidable presence in the midfield. His impact on the game comes from his exceptional ability to win contested possessions and his relentless tackling, showcasing his commitment and toughness in every match. Adams excels in clearances, demonstrating strength and skill in extracting the football from tight situations, which is crucial for setting up his team’s offensive plays.

Furthermore, his leadership qualities are invaluable on and off the field, often inspiring his teammates with his work ethic and determination. Adams also possesses a good sense of the game, can read plays effectively and makes decisive moves that can change the course of a game. His style and impact as a player make him a critical asset to his team and a challenge for opponents, highlighting his importance in the midfield battle.

Taylor Adams’ journey from being the vice-captain of Collingwood to his trade with the Sydney Swans underscores how quickly circumstances can change in the world of professional sports. Just six months ago, Adams was a key figure at Collingwood, a team on the cusp of AFL glory as they qualified for the preliminary final. However, fate took a turn when Adams suffered a hamstring injury, sidelining him for what would have been a pivotal moment in his career and causing him to miss the Magpies’ triumphant premiership win.

This setback sparked a significant shift in Adams’ career trajectory. With a strong desire to reclaim a prominent role in the midfield and seek a fresh start, Adams reached out to the Sydney Swans. This move effectively forced Collingwood’s hand, leading to his trade with the Swans.

His fantasy football performance last year paints a picture of inconsistency, with a notable difference from his historical scoring when placed in the midfield in contrast to the half-forward role he was forced into. In AFLFantasy, he averaged 76.5, scoring four tons, including one over 120, with 13 scores falling under 80. Similarly, in SuperCoach, his average was slightly higher at 78.2, with four matches hitting the ton, one scoring over 120, and 11 games scoring under 80. These statistics suggest a challenging season for Adams, marked by volatility in his scoring potential.

However, looking back a few seasons, Adams’ scoring pedigree, particularly when playing in the midfield, is undeniable. In 2021, he averaged 100.8 in AFLFantasy and 94.9 in SuperCoach, showcasing his ability to deliver solid fantasy scores. His performance was even more impressive in 2020, with an average of 109.5 in SuperCoach, the 15th-best average, and an adjusted average of 114.3 in AFLFantasy, where he was the 6th-highest scorer overall and notably played in every game.

These historical performances highlight Adams’ potential for high fantasy scoring, especially when positioned in the midfield. With his move to the Sydney Swans and a desire to return to a midfield role, Adams could recapture this form. Fantasy coaches considering Adams for their team will weigh his recent inconsistent year against his proven ability to deliver significant points when placed in his preferred midfield position. This contrast suggests that, with the right role at Sydney, Adams could offer substantial value and become a key player in fantasy teams once again.

Being priced in the mid-70s, Taylor Adams presents a tempting opportunity for fantasy coaches looking for potential high-reward forward options in their lineup. Given his proven track record and scoring pedigree in previous seasons, especially when playing in the midfield, Adams stands out as one of the rare forwards who could average 100+ in fantasy football. This potential is particularly compelling considering his desire to return to a midfield role with his move to the Sydney Swans. This could see him recapture the form that previously saw him achieving high averages.

In a typical fantasy football season, the upside presented by a player like Taylor Adams, with his proven potential and favourable pricing, is always a valuable consideration. However, this year, his relevance is magnified significantly due to the scarcity of genuine top-line premium forwards in the player pool. The rarity of forwards capable of averaging 100+ points makes Adams an even more critical asset for fantasy coaches looking to gain an edge.

The lack of established premium forwards in the game means that finding a player priced in the mid-70s with the potential to deliver significantly higher averages is akin to striking gold. Adams represents a unique opportunity with his midfield pedigree and the possibility of returning to a role that maximizes his scoring ability. In a year where the forward options are limited, securing a player with the potential to outscore his price point and rival the output of traditionally higher-priced forwards can be a game-changer.

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MY TAKE

In 2021, Taylor Adams had a high involvement in the midfield with a 77% CBA, which translated to a robust AFLFantasy average of 100 and an efficient 1.10 points per minute (PPM), despite a TOG of 76%—this season showcased Adams at his fantasy best, with significant midfield time directly correlating with high fantasy scoring efficiency and a substantial average.

The following season, there was a noticeable decrease in Adams’ CBA to 65%, coinciding with a drop in his PPM to 0.91 and a slightly lower TOG of 73%. This reduction in midfield involvement is linked to a decrease in his scoring efficiency, highlighting the impact of his role within the team on his fantasy output.

During last year, Adams experienced a significant reduction in CBA to 39%, which aligned with further decreases in his fantasy scoring efficiency to 0.80 PPM, although his TOG remained relatively stable at 76%. This sharp decline in CBA indicates a major shift in his role away from the centre bounces, significantly affecting his ability to score fantasy points.

Adams’ fantasy football output directly correlates with his involvement in centre bounces. Higher CBA percentages in 2021 led to his best fantasy performance, demonstrating the critical role of midfield involvement in enhancing fantasy scoring potential.

The data from 2022 and 2023 suggest that any reduction in Adams’ role in the midfield, as indicated by lower CBA percentages, results in decreased fantasy scoring efficiency and overall average. This trend underscores the importance of his midfield presence for optimal fantasy output.

Despite fluctuations in CBA and PPM, Adams’ TOG has remained relatively stable, indicating that while his on-field time didn’t significantly change, his role did, impacting his fantasy relevance.

Given these trends, fantasy coaches should closely monitor Adams’ role within his new team, particularly his CBA percentage, as this will be a key indicator of his potential fantasy performance. Increasing midfield involvement could signal a return to higher fantasy scoring efficiency and make him a valuable asset in fantasy football starting squads.

The Sydney Swans’ midfield mix in 2023, based on Centre Bounce Attendance (CBA) data, reveals a competitive and talent-rich environment. Luke Parker led with 75% CBA, indicating his role as a primary midfielder, followed by James Rowbottom and Chad Warner with 55% and 53%, respectively, showcasing their significant involvement. Callum Mills (37%), Errol Gulden (36%), and Tom Papley (35%) also had notable participation rates, highlighting the Swans’ strategy of rotating multiple players through the midfield to maintain dynamism and versatility.

Integrating Taylor Adams into this mix poses an interesting challenge and opportunity. His historical performance indicates a strong preference for being in the thick of the action, evidenced by his high CBA percentages at Collingwood. Adams’ inclusion could necessitate adjustments in the Swans’ midfield strategy, potentially altering the CBA distribution among the existing midfielders. His proven ability to impact games through contested possessions and clearances could see him taking on a significant role, possibly at the expense of CBAs from other midfielders.

The potential addition of James Jordon to the Swans’ lineup further complicates the midfield dynamics. If Jordon can crack the best 22, it adds another layer of complexity to the distribution of roles within the midfield, with more players vying for time in centre bounces.

The Sydney Swans have demonstrated that their midfielders possess considerable ‘fantasy chops.’ Players like Gulden, Mills, Warner, and Parker have all scored well in past seasons in fantasy football from the midfield. This depth and versatility mean that the Swans have a wealth of options, but it also raises questions about how these resources will be balanced with the arrival of Adams (and potentially Jordon).

Understanding how Adams fits into this equation will be crucial for fantasy coaches. His history suggests he could significantly influence fantasy scores if given a prominent midfield role. Observing the Swans’ preseason and early-round strategies will provide vital insights into how Adams and the rest of the midfield mix will be deployed, impacting fantasy football decisions.

For Taylor Adams to be considered a worthwhile starting selection in fantasy football, the analysis of his performance at Collingwood suggests that he needs a minimum of 50% Centre Bounce Attendances (CBAs). Last year, in games where Adams had 40% or higher CBAs with Collingwood, he averaged 85.6 in AFLFantasy and 87.4 in SuperCoach. While this demonstrates potential upside, for Adams to replicate or exceed the points per minute he achieved during his peak years (2020-2022) at Collingwood, a CBA threshold of at least 50% appears necessary.

The Sydney Swans’ midfield mix and the potential for Luke Parker to spend more time forward has been a topic of speculation for years. However, given Parker’s strong performance levels and durability, which arguably surpass those of Adams, it seems unlikely that Parker will significantly reduce his midfield presence. Furthermore, the Swans’ forward line, featuring Will Hayward, Logan McDonald, Isaac Heeney, and Tom Papley, is robust without needing Parker to shift roles. This composition suggests that Adams’ pathway to securing the requisite CBA percentage might not hinge on displacing Parker but rather on finding his place within the existing dynamic.

Fortunately, speculation on Adams’ role within the Swans’ midfield will soon be clarified, as Sydney is scheduled to play in the season’s opening round. This match will offer valuable insights into the team’s midfield strategy and Adams’ part. If Adams secures less than 50% midfield time, it might be prudent to consider fading him from the starting selection due to the potential impact on his scoring. Conversely, if he is granted substantial midfield time, whether through preference or due to the unavailability of others, it could make starting him a more attractive proposition for fantasy coaches looking to capitalize on his scoring potential in a new team environment.

The unique structure of fantasy football formats incorporating scoring from the opening round in price movements certainly adds an enticing layer of upside for considering Taylor Adams as a starting selection. However, the round five bye introduces a strategic complication that fantasy coaches must navigate carefully, especially concerning early starting squad priorities.

With notable players like Brodie Grundy, Nick Daicos, Errol Gulden, and potentially James Jordan all slated to play in the opening rounds but also sharing the round five bye, fantasy coaches are faced with a dilemma. Including Taylor Adams in this mix further complicates the decision-making process. This situation necessitates a careful game of prioritization and structural balance within fantasy squads. The players you value higher and believe will offer the most significant returns early in the season will ultimately guide your decisions on how many others from this group you can afford to start with.

The key to navigating this challenge lies in understanding the potential impact of the round five bye on your squad’s overall performance and structuring your team to mitigate any negative effects. This might involve selecting a balanced mix of players with different bye rounds to ensure your team remains competitive throughout the early part of the season. Additionally, considering players’ roles, scoring potential, and the likelihood of price movements based on early performances will be crucial in making informed decisions.

The abundance of similarly priced options is the positive aspect of considering Taylor Adams for your fantasy football lineup. If you decide to start Adams and he doesn’t perform as expected, the fantasy format allows for a straightforward sideways trade to another player who is showing better form. Similarly, if you choose not to start with Adams, you can trade him in if he demonstrates strong performance, ensuring you can still capitalize on his scoring potential at the right time.

Ultimately, Adams’ role within the Sydney Swans’ lineup is a critical factor that needs close observation. The opening round’s performance will be pivotal in assessing his position and impact within the team’s midfield mix. This initial showcase will provide valuable insights into his usage, midfield time, and scoring capability in his new club environment. Therefore, fantasy coaches should closely monitor Adams’ performance in the opening round, as it will significantly inform the decision-making process regarding his inclusion in fantasy squads. Whether starting with Adams or considering a trade-in option, his early games for the Swans will be the ultimate decider in determining his value and role in your fantasy football strategy.

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DRAFT DECISION

Taylor Adams enters the draft with a unique positioning based on his 2023 performances—ranked 27th in SuperCoach and 17th in AFLFantasy. His potential as an F1 (first forward selected) in AFLFantasy is evident, reflecting the optimism surrounding his scoring capabilities, especially considering the lack of premium forward options. This upside makes him a compelling choice as an F1 in AFLFantasy formats, where his midfield pedigree and potential role with the Sydney Swans could translate into significant scoring.

In SuperCoach, however, Adams might more realistically fit the profile of an F2 (second forward selected) option. This caution stems from a combination of his previous year’s average and the strategic approach of SuperCoach players who may prioritize forwards with a more consistent scoring history or those positioned in roles with clearer scoring pathways. The variance in SuperCoach scoring, which often rewards contested possessions and impactful plays, might lead coaches to reach for other options before considering Adams as their first forward pick.

My stance is less optimistic than others regarding Adams’ immediate impact in his new role, meaning I’ll likely miss out on drafting him in most leagues. This cautious approach is based on the need for clear evidence of his role within the Swans and the impact of the team’s midfield dynamics on his scoring potential before committing a high draft pick to him.

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