Discover how Brodie Grundy’s move to the Sydney Swans could reignite his fantasy football scoring, making him a key player to own in AFLFantasy and SuperCoach.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Brodie Grundy has the pedigree of being one of the top ruckmen in the AFL! He boasts exceptional athleticism, work rate, and football intelligence. His ability to influence the game, not just in the ruck contests but across the ground, sets him apart. Grundy’s proficiency in clearances, his knack for winning contested possessions, and his capacity to act as an additional midfielder give his team a significant advantage. He’s equally adept defensively, often seen laying crucial tackles and supporting his backline.

However, the past 18 months would be something he’d love to move on fast. The trade from Collingwood to Melbourne, frankly, was a failure. The ‘two-headed ruck’ didn’t work at Melbourne, so he quickly exited.

His move to Sydney, Grundy’s impact on the field will be pivotal as he brings his high endurance, competitive edge, and leadership qualities to a new midfield dynamic, promising to enhance the Swans’ stoppage and clearance work while continuing to be a formidable presence.

2023 with Melbourne was a mixed bag of performances for Brodie. His AFLFantasy average of 75 and SuperCoach average of 86 illustrate a year where Grundy didn’t consistently hit the high marks expected from one of the league’s top ruckmen. With only a handful of tons and a majority of scores falling below the 80-point threshold, it was a year that left many of us fantasy coaches wanting more.

However, Grundy’s potential was displayed in his three games without Max Gawn. During these matches, Grundy’s averages jumped to 102 in AFLFantasy and an impressive 138.3 in SuperCoach, showcasing what he’s capable of when given sole responsibility in the ruck. These performances mirror his output in his last two seasons at Collingwood, where he was a dominant force and should provide us with some confidence that his ‘best scoring days’ might not be too far in the rearview.

In 2022, with an 84% centre bounce attendance and a hitout win rate of 46%, he averaged 93.3 in AFLFantasy and 103 in SuperCoach. The previous year, 2021, was even more prolific for Grundy, posting averages of 106.4 in AFLFantasy and 115 in SuperCoach, alongside an 80% CBA and a hitout win rate of 53%.

With his move to Sydney and the expectation of taking on the main ruck duties, fantasy coaches have reason to anticipate a return to form that aligns more closely with his impressive performances at Collingwood.

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MY TAKE

Anticipating Brodie Grundy to replicate his pre-2020 peak performance might seem ambitious, but aiming for his 2021 averages is more realistic for his debut season with Sydney. His early bye in Round 5 does necessitate a strategic approach to ruck structuring, significantly influencing overall team composition. This bye, shared with pivotal players from Sydney and Collingwood, could compel coaches to navigate without premium assets like Nick Daicos and Errol Gulden, alongside potential value picks such as Taylor Adams and James Jordan, not to mention Grundy himself and key rookies.

While trading around Grundy’s bye is an option, there are better strategies than this, especially early in the season when the focus is maximizing team value and cash generation. Notably, Grundy will play only 10 of the first 12 weeks due to the Round 12 bye, contrasting with competitors like Xerri and Gawn, who play 11 games, and Marshall & English, who are available for all 12.

With ownership rates soaring—51% in AFLFantasy, 62% in DreamTeam, and 66% in SuperCoach—opting against Grundy means potentially missing out on a player with a significant upside and a clear path to outperforming his current price. Considering his widespread ownership, this choice becomes even more critical; if Grundy kicks off the season strongly, non-owners could be disadvantaged.

The initial fixtures present a challenging ruck schedule for Sydney, suggesting that, despite a strong performance, Grundy’s early-season average might linger in the lower 90s. However, electing not to start with Grundy risks overlooking one of 2024’s most valuable selections, given his potential for high returns at a comparatively lower investment.

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DRAFT DECISION

Brodie Grundy will likely be the fourth ruck selected in AFLFantasy drafts, trailing behind Rowan Marshall, Tim English, and Max Gawn. In SuperCoach formats, he might even fall to the fifth position, with Sean Darcy potentially being picked ahead of him due to his scoring potential.

With the ruck position being crucial for draft coaches, making sure coaches land a topline option will see Brodie as a popular choice in the second to third rounds of drafts.

His proven track record and potential in a new system keep him highly regarded among fantasy coaches, making him a strategic pick for those looking to solidify their ruck department early in the drafting phase.

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