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So you’ve decided to start up a keeper league! But not sure where you should rank players, especially early on? Good news, MJ & Kane have ranked the top 50 players into eight different selection tiers! This article accompanies the podcasts to help give you a quick reference guide when wither creating your new keeper ranks. Or if in an existing keeper, to target some potential trade candidates.
If you want to understand more about tiering by ranks, listen to this podcast explaining it all.
TIER EIGHT
Embed from Getty ImagesBen Keays
| KANE | If Ben Keays was a top 10 pick with an 108 average to his name at 24 years of age there would be a lot more hype around his name. However, in many coaches eyes he’s still a guy that was delisted from his first club and not long for AFL level. What I’ve seen from Keays at Adelaide doesn’t support this narrative. He’s already played more games in his two years with the Crows (38 games) than he did with four years at Brisbane (30 games). Only twice at the Lions did Keays have more than 20 disposals in a game, this year at Adelaide he had 20+ in all 22 games, including 10 games where he had 30+ and a career-high 38. I think it’s safe to say Keays is a different player at Adelaide to Brisbane and a lot of that is due to his role as an inside midfielder. While many will be scared that the role could depreciate with the return of Matt Crouch and growth of Harry Schoenberg, I still have faith in Keays to average 95-100 at a minimum. The coaching staff clearly rated his efforts in 2021 as they rewarded him with a runner-up finish in the best and fairest and it would take a massive role change for his scoring to fall away in the prime of his career. |
| MJ | Everything clicked for Ben Keays in 2021. Keays played 22 games, averaged 108, scored 13 tons, with six of them above 120. He had just one score beneath 80 all year and ranked 13th for total points scored. From a fantasy perspective, he does it all. He wins the contested footy, works both ways and is prepared to do the defensive team stuff. And gets involved in the uncontested, running wave of the Crows. Last year he ranked 10th in the AFL for inside ’50s and has developed a clever knack of booting the odd goal. The question for me isn’t can he score well again next year? Clearly, he has the game build for it. Rather, the uncertainty comes not knowing what impact does a healthy Matt Crouch have on his numbers? Along with an increased midfield presence of Harry Schoenberg, Luke Pedlar and Sam Berry? |
Connor Rozee
| KANE | Connor Rozee burst onto the scene in 2019 playing all 22 games and averaging 72.5 points. It only took Rozee three games to post his first career ton, an electric 121-point effort against Brisbane on the back of 21 disposals, seven marks and five goals. Rozee produced another ton before his debut season was out to showcase it was no fluke but since has battled injury and inconsistent form. The beautiful thing with Rozee is that he’s already played 59 AFL games, including four finals, and will be 22 years old when the 2022 season starts. That’s an incredible amount of experience for a player of his age. Rozee is already a solid scorer playing primarily forward, which should mean any sort of midfield uptick, and let’s face it Port need midfield help to support Travis Boak and Ollie Wines, should result in him reaching top 10 forward status comfortably. |
| MJ | A stat that’s very important to me in keeper leagues is the number of games played before converting your first fantasy 100. It took only three games for Connor Rozee. Injuries have frustrated his past two seasons, but it’s clear that Connor is a star footballer when fit, and unlike some others, it does correlate to fantasy scoring. In his debut season, he averaged 72, with five scores over 90. This season from his 19 games, he had five scores over 85, not bad for a guy carrying niggles most of the year. I believe he’s a long term MID/FWD. The most significant value piece is if he retains this long term, he’s a potential 80-85 guy with a small ceiling. If he moves into the midfield, then he’s a 100+ performer. Either way, you can’t lose. |
Noah Anderson
| KANE | In keeper leagues like all fantasy you always have to remember you’re paying for future performance. I know a lot of coaches want to see a player deliver before jumping on board but in keepers in particular you don’t have that luxury. If you want to secure the next generation of stars you have to be prepared to jump earlier than most would feel comfortable and Noah Anderson is certainly that type of player. In his two seasons at AFL level Anderson has played 37 of a possible 39 games and averaged 77.6 across that time. However, it’s the ceiling that is most impressive for me. To already have two 120 scores under your belt and five games with 30+ disposals in your second season is extremely rare. I see Anderson a 100 midfielder for the better part of a decade and if he’s moved into a predominately inside role could have a couple of 110 years mixed in. |
| MJ | Forecasting is an important factor in keeper leagues. You need to ‘jump’ earlier than others might to get the future’ guns’ to secure them. For example, to pick Noah Anderson inside the top 50 for some might be early, but all his trends suggest he’s on the way to be a highly valuable asset. In his debut season, he averaged a more than respectable 73.5. Contrary to some former keeper league stars, Scott Pendlebury averaged 62 in his first year, while Jackson Macrae went at 63. Entering into 2021 he lifted his average up to 81 and importantly posted 4 tons, all of which were over 115. With 5 additional scores 80+. This scoring trajectory is very healthy and will only get better as he enters into the famed ‘3rd-year breakout next season. The Gold Coast midfielder looks destined to become a long term 100+ performer for the next decade. |
Brad Crouch
| KANE | For many coaches, Brad Crouch still has a stink due to the injury issues that plagued the first six years of his career and because of that he’s often undervalued. The past three seasons are as far back as I base my fantasy research as too much changes beyond that. Looking at Brad’s past three seasons he’s played 54 of a possible 61 games and averaged 99.8 (2020 averaged adjusted to full game time by multiplying the average by 1.25). In that three-year window, Brad missed two of the games due to an off-field suspension, so I’m comfortable with his availability. Moreover, my confidence in his scoring has never wavered, he scores when he plays, largely due to the fact he absorbs a prosperous inside midfield role. Clearly Jack Steele is the Saints No. 1 man but that’s perfect for Brad who can just hunt ball and man and deliver 100 point seasons for the next 3-5 years. |
| MJ | Over the last few seasons, Brad’s been a rollercoaster ride to own in drafts. In 2015 & 2018 he played zero footy. However, in 2019 he averaged 107.9 and was ranked 7th for total overall points. Promisingly over the past few seasons he’s only had one minor hamstring setback and finally appears to be over the ‘injury-prone tag’. In his first season as a saint, he averaged 95.2, scored 11 tons and had 4 over 120. Not amazing, but the 27-year-old has shown now across multiple seasons and clubs he has the ability to deliver a strong run of tons. At St Kilda, he’ll never get tagged over Jack Steele. But like his captain, he has an uncanny ability to find himself near the footy. He might not get back to his PB season of a few years back where he was a top 10 scorer, but he’s one of the safest 95+ performers going around. |
Toby Greene
| KANE | Toby Greene is a polarising footballer and that extends to his fantasy game. A lot of the traits we look for in a fantasy prospect Greene lacks: namely availability and consistency. His propensity to get injured or suspended can drive coaches mental. While the nature of his ‘key’ forward role naturally invites volatility in scoring. Yet he still makes the top 50. So he must be doing something right. What Greene does right is maintain forward status year on year, which can’t be understated. Reliable scoring forwards are so hard to come by and when Greene plays he’s near on guaranteed to score 80+ if not 90+. Some coaches will put a line through him because they can’t stand him but he’s the exact type of player that can deliver you a flag if the stars align. |
| MJ | Whether you’ve played the ‘classic’ games of fantasy before or always been a ‘draft coach,’ you’d know that the greatest player positional security line is the forwards. It’s why players like Toby Greene even with his suspension tendencies to miss multiple games a year is a highly desirable asset. Even though the Giants love him occasionally in the midfield, it’s inside forward 50 he’s the most prolific. Since 2014 this is his seasonal averages: 103, 86, 93, 91, an injury impacted 67, 98, 82 (BCV) and last year an 84. It says it all really, at 27 he’s got at least another 4-5 seasons of high performing top end forward scores for his keeper league owners. |
Jy Simpkin
| KANE | Jy Simpkin has so many elements to his game that make him a great keeper. At 23 years of age he’s already got 95 games under his belt at AFL level, which demonstrates not only his durability but adaptability. Simpkin started his career as a small forward and looked every part a good one, but his move to the midfield has catapulted his fantasy stocks. In 2021 he played every game and averaged an impressive 95 points (105 post bye across 11 games). But for me it’s not just the 27 disposals, four marks and four tackles that jump out to me but the eye test. Simpkin provides something different to that Roos midfield. He has a contested game, but his ability to operate cleanly in traffic and spread will make him a mainstay in his current role. |
| MJ | In 2020 we saw the breakout of Jy Simpkin. He elevated himself from a mid 60’s averaging performer into a respectable 88.5 BCV. This year that development continued as he averaged 95. At first glance, a 95 might not feel enough to qualify for this tier, but at 23 years old getting 8 seasons of 95+ averages is something of high value. The good news is the year is slightly deceiving. Over the first 11 games, Simpkin post just 4 tons and averaged 86. However, in the final 11 games post-bye, he scored 8 tons and had just one score below 96. Encouragingly, he’s proving to be quite durable, with him missing just one match over the past 4 seasons. |
Tarryn Thomas
| KANE | I can’t lie I didn’t see Tarryn Thomas’ 2021 breakout coming at all. After his 2020 campaign was struck down six games in due to a left foot injury I thought 2021 would be a gradual step forward. What we got though was a glimpse at a player that could be a genuine star of the competition and exactly what the Roos would have dreamed of when they selected their Next Gen Academy prospect. The tailend of the season is what has Thomas in the 50. First, to average 93 postbye across 11 games and most notably 107 in the final five games, which included the four highest scores of his career – 96, 115, 120 and 126.Those are serious numbers! The major concern I had for Thomas he answered in that postbye stretch.Ball winning: Averaging 21 disposals (high of 26) Ticking that disposal box combined with his ability to take a mark, lay a tackle, and kick a goal demonstrates that he can build his score in many different ways, which is exactly what it takes to be a premium player long term. |
| MJ | It was a breakout season for Tarryn, averaging 81 and playing 21 games. However, looking into his season with more detail, the breakout is still deceiving to his accurate scoring. In the first 14 games, he had just one score over 90 and 5 scores between 50-59. However, it’s his final seven game stretch that should excite coaches. A top score of 126, two additional tons and the lowest score in that run of 78. In this stretch of games, he averaged 101. Like some others on this tier in Rozee and Heeney, Thomas is so valuable and damaging inside forward 50, it would be doing the Kangaroos a disservice to exclude him from big minutes as a forward. That said, I think North Melbourne do need his class and Xfactor through the midfield. |
Isaac Heeney
| KANE | You don’t have to watch much football to know Isaac Heeney is a special player. To be 25 years old and already have three genuine elite forward seasons under your belt is impressive. However, we can’t sugarcoat that the past two years for Heeney have been underwhelming. Injuries restricted him to six games in 2020, while this year saw him play 20 home and away games, injuries again curtailed his output in what was his lowest seasonal average since his first year. The fact remains though that year on year forwards that can score 85+ don’t come around too often and that’s what Heeney is. So don’t be scared off by the past two years, remember we’re selecting him for future performance. To think that Heeney could finish his career without an All-Australian honour just doesn’t sit right with me, the best is definitely still to come. |
| MJ | One of the significant challenges in managing a keeper list is ensuring that you don’t have an annual issue of positional insecurity. By that, I mean a yearly transition of eligible players in either the back or forward lines. While Isaac Heeney might never be a top 5-6 averaging forward, he’s a super consistent performer year on year. Between 2017 and 2019, he averaged 92, 90 & 89. This season, we did see a scoring dip with an average of just 76. However, even with this poor season, he still ranked as a top 30 FWD by averages. What we saw from Isaac was a greater variety of scoring. For example, he gave us multiple scores over 130, but also four scores sub 50. If he can get that scoring basement back towards his consistent 70’s of years gone by, then at 25, he’s one of the most dependable forward stocks to build around. |
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