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Towards the end of 2021, Adam Cerra started to deliver on his fantasy potential. But does a move to Carlton help or hurt his scoring output?
Career High SuperCoach Score: 138 vs Richmond (2021)
Career High SuperCoach Average: 90.2 (2020)
Career High AFLFantasy Score: 147 vs Richmond (2021)
Career High AFLFantasy Average: 87.3 (2021)
Impact on New Club
The Blues have spent the better part of three seasons trying to get the midfield mix right. However, when fit, Patrick Cripps is still among the most damaging contested ball midfielders in the competition. At the same time, Sam Walsh could be staking a claim to be the midfielder in the AFL in the next two seasons.
Beyond those two, the Blues have always looked out of balance whether it was too slow with Marc Murphy, Ed Curnow & Will Setterfield surrounding them. Or too volatile with Zac Williams, Paddy Dow and Lachie O’Brien surrounding them. The Carlton faithful must be hoping that Adam Cerra (along with George Hewett) can once and for all help settle the midfield down.
I believe Cerra will play more of an outside/wingman role for the Blues. It’s in this portion of the midfield that his skills and the Blues list need perfectly collide.
Impact on Old Club
The departure of Adam Cerra is a significant loss for the Fremantle Dockers. At 22 years of age and after four preseasons, the club would’ve anticipated the investment dividends on him starting to return.
However, they now find themselves needing to replace one of the more versatile options on their side. Cerra provided a combination of poise, class, endurance and speed. Unfortunately, I don’t see any singular player becoming the ‘like for like’ replacement ahead of the AFL draft. So Fremantle will need to look more for a collective replacement approach.
Yet to be sighted, Luke Valente and Nathan O’Driscoll, along with recruit Will Brodie, will all be hoping for the first chance to set into the midfield mix. However, I suspect a greater reliance to come on James Aish, Darcy Tucker and Blake Acres, who is more suited to the outside midfield roles than the others listed above.
Alternatively, Fremantle might look to wind back the clock and let veterans David Mundy or Michael Walters across the more outside roles.
Fantasy Summary
When I think of how best to describe Adam Cerra as a player, the first word that comes to mind is class. ‘Chez’ has this uncanny ability to make the complex look easy and find his teammates lace out from seemingly impossible positions.
The scoring consistency hasn’t yet popped for him. Just last year alone, he delivered just four scores over 100. But what I like about his scoring is the steady build. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 60, 75 (BCV) and now an 87, which includes an injury impacted 15.
If this current scoring trend continues and maintains at his new club, he should average 95 for the next 7-8 seasons. Additionally, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ever cracked a few seasons over the 105 marker.
If he plays more as an outside midfielder, it’s notoriously tricky to put up 100+ averaging seasons consistently. Beyond Andrew Gaff, not many have done so.
At Carlton (his rumoured club of choice), he’ll never get tagged. That will always be Sam Walsh or Patrick Cripps if he can ever get back to his former glory. Having Cerra as potentially the #3 midfielder will be an exciting proposition for Blues fans and fantasy coaches.
