Preseason Archives - Page 10 of 59

Trade Priorities | Round 8

Read Time:7 Minute, 25 Second

We’re a third of the way through the season; it’s time to discuss the trade priorities as we head into another round of football.

Embed from Getty Images

Done the job?

One of the better midprice players this season has been new Essendon recruit Will Setterfield. The former Carlton & GWS Giants midfielder has thrived with the opportunity and continuity provided to him at Essendon. Over the first few rounds of the year, he was putting up premium scores and was understandably someone that people traded into. However, off the back of a score in the 50’s last weekend, the question of the format needs to be asked, is it time to trade him?

You can hold him, but it’ll likely come with some immediate cash drop probability. We saw a slide in his price last week. Barring a return to the 120+ scores, he’ll fall again. He’s got a breakeven of 126 in AFLFantasy + DreamTeam and 117 in SuperCoach. He’s shown history this year that he’s got the capability of scoring this and more. But on the recent trend, the probability of having him kickstart his cash generation again. Therefore, the options are either tap out now while he’s arguably at his pricing peak or hold onto him until the round fourteen bye.

There are still plenty of other midprice options that can continue to stick around in our teams. James Worpel, Finn Callagahan and Darcy Macpherson still have some cash to make. So there’s no need to consider moving any of these players on.

Embed from Getty Images

Ripe for the picking

At the start of the season, most coaches would say that their ideal completed team would include Jack Steele and Jack Sinclair. For various reasons, both have yet to be at their previous peak. But after last weekend, they reminded coaches of all formats of their potential. The benefit of some early season challenges means we can pick up both at some value based on proven performances. They might not be bargains, but they are under compared to what you could have paid for entering the season.

I’ve been a big fan of Andrew Brayshaw, but his start to the season has been underwhelming. Thankfully, there’s a legitimate reason for it. He’s come out and shared that he’d been battling a knee issue during the preseason and early in the year. Thankfully, he’s now pain-free & believes he’s turned the corner. Last year he averaged over 110 across the formats, and if you believe his injury was the primary reason for a lower-scoring start to the season, then he’s a genuine option to be a buy low.

On the latest strategy roundtable, we discussed Jayden Short. If he had DEF status now, he’d be more highly discussed. But while he is only a MID, only he’s getting slept on. In the past two weeks, he’s scored 117 & 123 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam plus 130 & 94 in SuperCoach. Barring a disaster, he’s certain to get DEF status heading into round 12, but even if he doesn’t, he’s got a plumb fixture and role that makes him a strong option now that, at worst, is moved off at his bye round. At best, he could match it with the scoring of Jordan Dawson, Tom Stewart, Nick Daicos, James Sicily and Jack Sinclair.

It’s an AFLFantasy play with high risk but has a huge potential reward. Does Aaron Hall have the potential to average 120+ from now until his round 15 byes? The answer should be yes! Equally, if I asked you who has the historical narrative of going down injured in the first five minutes of a game and cost you, he’d also make a list. Considering him as an option isn’t for a team with a strong rank position; rather, it’s a team looking to make up some ground and go unique. He’s got the capacity to be the #1 scorer in the game. Additionally, he’s about $50,000 more expensive than Will Day but has potential 30+ points on him every week. It’s not for everyone, but he’s ripe for the picking for the right coach.

Don’t lose focus

Have you ever heard the saying of short-term pain for long-term gain? Essentially, it’s absorbing the pain of now so that the long-term benefit is greater. It’s so easy to sacrifice our future for the immediate hit of an upgrade-heavy cadence that’s not thought out. Yes, we need to be aggressive, and yes, we need to maximise opportunities at present, but not be careless. Successful coaches across the formats do it by trading with a short, medium and long-term planning view.

Don’t make trades this week in the hope you’ll be able to do moves the following week. Each trade you make should support the next. The moves you make should also create a pathway for the following weeks. Know what you’re doing, the what, then when, the how and the why.

Making an upgrade and doing many quickly is one of the greater sensations for fantasy footy, but doing them carelessly, without planning or narrative, could end up being the thing that stalls the longer-term growth of your team.

For example. Two weeks ago, many thought Kade Chandler was a trade-out consideration. They did this by looking at the price point and breakeven and decided to move him on. Yes, they got a premium ‘early’, but they still need to hold onto a guy with proven 100-scoring potential, a remarkable fixture and the perfect parachute plan with where his bye-round sits. He should never have been a consideration to trade, but rather be the perfect runner to the bye. It’s not a hindsight commentary; it was evident then (and articulated by us on a podcast), but nobody should’ve considered moving him on then. However, in people’s eagerness to upgrade, they took immediate gratification and lost sight of the long-term best interests of their team.

The rank isn’t real

You might be looking at your ranking and not be thrilled with what you see. But the reality of where you’re placed (for better or worse) could be the net result of only 5-10 variables and decisions over the past seven weeks.

If you play AFLFantasy, heading into round one, plenty of coaches were tossing up one defensive spot between either Nick Daicos or Hayden Young. There was less than $10,000 between them, and yet now there are 232 points and over $150k the difference. For SuperCoach, some opted to start Sean Darcy instead of Tim English because they thought the $20k price gap would be negligible. However, after eight weeks, both have been good picks, averaging over 110. However, English averages 20 points more per game and outscored him by over 135 points.

It can also come through your captaincy selections. Last week alone, there was over a 55-point differential between placing the captaincy on either Rowan Marshall or Nick Daicos. Getting on the right side of this call weekly can accumulate a significant difference. Think back to round one; Kade Chandler scores a 104 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 93 in SuperCoach. If you had him, let alone on the field, it significantly changed the outcome of your scores and possible cash generation.

And lastly, there is the element of luck. Or should I say bad luck? Two weeks ago, trading into Touk Miller was a strong play. But unfortunately, he got injured, forcing coaches to make an additional trade and find themselves not just with a poor score but a forced change to their upgrade cadence.

The point is your ranked where you are only off the back of a few decisions. Good coaches with good strategies, cash generation and clear thinking will excel over the coming weeks as we head into the multi-bye rounds. It will only be after the byes that we’ll get a true picture of where coaches are ranked and how well they’ve played the game.

Have you got a bad rank? Be encouraged; you might be closer to a good outcome post byes. Flying and ranked high? That’s excellent, but don’t get smug; you’ve got a pack of good coaches behind you planning and creating an all-mighty push.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

What to do with Touk Miller?

Read Time:7 Minute, 15 Second

Monday afternoon, the bad news hit. Touk Miller will miss significant amounts of the 2023 season scans that revealed a lateral meniscus tear in his left knee. The result is a forced trade for owners, but which player comes into their side? First, let’s take a look at some of the best prospects.

Embed from Getty Images

The Trade In was a Good Play

If you didn’t believe that luck was a significant factor in success in fantasy footy, this weekend of scoring is the ultimate reminder. Many indicators highlighted the fact that Touk Miller was a strong upgrade target. While not posting multiple monster scores, he’d shown plenty of moments that his scoring power was still present. He’d reached close to his basement price and had a fixture of matchups against North Melbourne, Richmond, Melbourne & West Coast. These are four of the better matchups for midfielders to score in.

Sadly for owners, an injury happened. But be encouraged. You read the narrative correctly. You created a plan and executed it. You saw a strong play; sadly, it was just bad luck in an injury that meant the plan had failed. It’s important to note because sometimes, when your trading plans fail, you can believe you, as the coach, screwed up. However, in this instance, it’s not a coaches error. Saying so would be using hindsight. The reality is, It’s just bad luck.

Now, you can shake the dust off, pick yourself up and use this moment to work in the net positive for you. Injuries create opportunities, so get up and enjoy the opportunities. As you’ll see, you’ve got a bounty to choose from about what you should do with Touk.

Captaincy Option

In 2023 Touk Miller has yet to hit his historical dominance, but that was the attraction. Over the past few seasons, he’s shown the potential to score with the competition’s elite. Landing Touk was also seen as adding another weekly VC/C to your arsenal. It’s why his injury creates the opportunity to trade up with some of the best scorers in the game.

Across the formats, Rory Laird is approximately $30,000-$40,000 more than Touk. The premium Crow midfielder has had some rollercoaster moments in 2023. But he’s coming off a 118 & 120 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. In SuperCoach, he hasn’t dropped under 97 in his last five and is averaging 123 over that stretch of games. He’s $70k cheaper than round one, and Touk offers an easy ticket to someone you’ll want to own sooner than later.

Clayton Oliver is the highest-priced player in AFLFantasy, and second for DreamTeam and SuperCoach. His start to the season has been amazing, and while he’s gone up in AFLFantasy & DreamTeam, he’s still $30k cheaper than his starting price in SuperCoach. Over the next month, Melbourne has the Kangaroos, Suns, Hawks & Port. It’s not a ‘value’ play, but that’s not the point. If you’ve hated watching him play the past six weeks, this presents a ticket to get your hands on him finally.

The highest-scoring player of the season across all formats is Tim English. He’s also gone up over $100k in all formats making him one of the most expensive players. But it’s with good reason. He has yet to drop his scoring all year under 130 in SuperCoach or beneath 110 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. It might not be an easy play for non-owners to obtain him. The reason being neither Sean Darcy nor Rowan Marshall is worth moving on. Unless you own Brodie Grundy or Jarrod Witts as much as you’d love him I’m not sure moving Miller – English will be the best play for you despite his scoring dominance.A player rarely hits premium territories in their second season.

Nat Fyfe, Clayton Oliver & Jackson Macrae are just some of the limited few who’ve not just avoided the second-year blues but become a genuine premium. However, Nick Daicos hasn’t just placed himself as a genuine premium; you could argue that he’s now scoring strongly enough to be a consideration as a VC/C most weeks. His average of 122 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 135 in SuperCoach is elite. While the laws of probability suggest this isn’t maintainable for the season, much like Oliver above, he’s probably created a high sense of frustration watching him as a non-owner. Yes, you’re paying top price for him, but sometimes you need to bite the bullet.

The Bye Rounds

One of the major attractions was trading into Touk for how this would assist your team through the multip bye rounds. In round thirteen, it’s just Gold Coast and Geelong missing. The upside is further heightened in SuperCoach & DreamTeam, where it’s a ‘best 18’ in these formats. Getting 18+ players in this round should be basic, but the Suns and Cats players like Miller would allow you greater consistency and structure for the byes. If this was (or in hindsight now is) of aid to you, the good news is we’ve got multiple options from both sides to help maintain the same bye-round structural narrative.

Last week on our podcast, fellow panellist Rids threw out Noah Anderson’s name as someone who could match Touk in AFLFantasy & DreamTeam. After failing to ton up in the opening three rounds, he’s returned to form with three in a row. If you believe he is the open stepping up with the absence of Miller, then it’s certainly a potential option.

It feels like now or never for Tom Stewart. His injury-impacted score from round one is no longer impacting his price, which means; as a result, the trend is he’ll head back towards his premium price tag. On his day, he’s got the best ceiling of all defenders available to us. With a run of games at GMHBA coming up, he’s still a play, given that I’m confident he’s a topline defender across the formats.

It’s more of a SuperCoach play, but there’s certainly some merit in the other formats. Patrick Dangerfield is coming off the back of four consecutive tons. Unfortunately, he’s not the beast he was in the late 2010s. He’s one of only ten players averaging over 120 in the past three weeks. To boot, he’s in only 3% of teams.

None of these guys I like as a trade for Touk, but what they could be is alternate upgrades you consider to ensure you have the same theory of having some play through rounds 12, 14 & 15 available to you.

Chasing Uniques

Sam Walsh has wasted no time reminding the fantasy football community of his scoring pedigree. A 102 & 131 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam + 104 & 130 in SuperCoach has him scoring as well as any other premium. Due to such limited time playing, he’s owned by 3% or less of teams across all formats. If he can be 110 midfielder by average from now til seasons end, then he’s certainly a consideration for you.

Flying under the radar this season is Christian Petracca. The former Norm Smith medalist is having a solid 2023 season. Averaging 105 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam consists of four tons and nothing under 90. In these formats, he’s owned by less than 10%. While for SuperCoach, his average of 105 is built of two scores of 97, and he’s currently on a run of four consecutive tons. He’s got the same great matchups as Oliver, and he’s right in the mix for DPP MID/FWD coming into the byes.

The only thing that’s interrupted Zac Merrett‘s season was his suspension. Beyond that, he’s been flying along beautifully under the radar. He’s averaging 107 and has shown for multiple years that he can go with the best premium midfielders. With ownership of 4%, he’s someone to consider seriously.

This might be my favourite of all the options. I’m known for my admiration of Josh Kelly as a fantasy prospect, but this isn’t just confirmation bias. He’s shown this year that his 110+ scoring is right within his capacity, and he’s done this on numerous occasions. He’s already got two scores of 139 or higher in SuperCoach and two above 125 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Throw in the fact that he’s owned by fewer than 5% in AFLFantasy & DreamTeam, and it’s an open play. It may be the one I make.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

What to do with Sam Docherty?

Read Time:7 Minute, 22 Second

Tuesday afternoon, the bad news hit. Sam Docherty will miss the next 4-6 weeks after undergoing surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee. The result is a forced trade for owners, but which player comes into their side? Let’s take a look at some of the best prospects.

Embed from Getty Images

It’s a potentially painful time for any fantasy coach when an injury forces your trading timelines and requires you to adapt your weekly plans. As frustrating as it can be, we must see every obstacle as an opportunity. With a player as highly owned as Doc, it creates incredible possibilities for you if you treat this situation right. Before looking at some specific players or scenarios, here is some broader advice that can help point you to the right trading avenue for you and your team. But don’t forget, with Carlton playing in the first game of the round you need to make your decisions before seeing any other side play or have the full Sunday teams revealed.

Look at the Big Picture

It’s going to happen. Too many coaches will panic this week. They’ll see the injury to Docherty, hear of the impending rest to Reuben Ginbey and question the scoring capacity of cows like Dary Wilmot, Lachie Cowan or Miller Bergman. As a result, they’ll make the most obvious sideways trade possible. The obvious is alright; it’s the right play in some situations, but great fantasy coaches don’t just accept the obvious. They look at all possibilities.

For example, do you have Harry Sheezel or Jack Ziebell in your forward line? In just days, both will be awarded DPP and get defender status (see who else I think gets it here.) Does their inclusion on your side as defenders next mean you can now look at moving Docherty onto a premium in another line? Whatever trade you make, think about something other than the side for one week. The impact of the trade will be felt for the rest of the year, so think about what your side looks like in the bigger story beyond just round five.

For example, you can build a case that Touk Miller, Josh Kelly and, depending on the format you play, even Noah Anderson, are all ripe for the picking. Does copping a lower cows defender score on the field like Cowan for the week (who remember he could get a scoring bump with no Doc) in combination with a Kelly make your team longer-term stronger than adding a defensive premium and a midfield cow? If it does, and structurally, you’ve got the cavalry coming into the backline, it might be worth a play.

Another illustration could be that your team still has some frustrating failed picks. That could be from dead cash cows like Charlie Constable and Campbell Chesser to Andrew McGrath and Hayden Young. The combined cash allocation could mean you’ve got the opportunity to think vertically and potentially laterally. Can this injury to Docherty create a combination approach where you can find yourself in a stronger overall position? I’ll look at some possible names later on.

Become a Patron!

Know Yourself

How risk averse are you? How aggressive do you like to be with your trades? Knowing who you are and how you play the game will give insight into how you should approach this. For the more conservative coach, a simple sideways trade to the best defensive premium you can afford might be the right play for you. Other more adventurous coaches may force the needle and move Docherty onto a midprice player or go heavy on a uniquely owned option. Of course, neither approach is ‘wrong’ right now; only hindsight will confirm that. But you need to know who you are, how you play & the compounding moves you will or won’t make due to the trade with Docherty.

Embed from Getty Images

The Obvious Move

Only so many premium defenders across the formats have had a strong first four weeks. You could narrow it down to two. Jordan Dawson and Nick Daicos. Both have been superb, and a move to either, if unowned, is warranted. With everything we’ve seen and know, both look destined to be among the top few defenders in 2023. Ideally, we’d all love to own both at some stage during the season and Doc to either is certainly a strong play.

Already Own Them, but want a premium.

It might be format dependent, but in SuperCoach, Tom Stewart has shown for years he’s one of the safest 100+ defenders in the game. Just cast your mind back to his Gold Coast Suns match, where he went at 167, and you are reminded of his scoring pedigree. After dropping $31,200 last week and breakeven of 69, it’s a good time to jump on. He’s a play for DT/AF, but history shows that SC is certainly where he’s a premier pick.

James Sicily has had two bumper and two OK weeks to start the season. The challenge is that in a fortnight, he’ll arguably bottom out in the price. That said, if money isn’t a factor and you want to get the best premium defender you are missing, then James needs to be considered.

The Probables

What more does Dan Rioli need to do before the fantasy community starts to acknowledge him? He’s averaging 99 for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 98.2 in SuperCoach. On the current trend, there’s every chance he’s a top-ten defender in 2023. Speaking of top defenders, Jack Sinclair was among the best defenders last year. While down approximately ten points per game from last year’s average, he’s still ranked ninth in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and eleventh in SuperCoach for total points among all defenders this year.

Luke Ryan has started the season white hot, with only Nick Daicos as the only defender to score more than him this year. Historically, he’s been close to cracking the top-tier defenders but never quite made it. If the Dockers keep playing a heavy kick/mark game, then not only is he a great unique, but he’ll be the one that very quickly will get his price point to a range that’ll see him get away from many.

The Uniques

As good as Daicos and Dawson have been, they aren’t the only defenders that have started the season well. So if you want to separate from the pack and bring in something unique, you have options.

Mason Redman is averaging 102 in SuperCoach and 99 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. With just 2.2% ownership in AFLFantasy, 3% in SuperCoach & 1% in DreamTeam, he’s unique. So too, is Adam Saad. He’s averaging 115 in SuperCoach and is in just 5% of sides. That’s coming off the back of averaging over 100 last year. While for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, Lachie Weller is currently averaging 95 in his last three and is priced well below that.

I’m never a huge fan of trading into someone at this stage of the season based solely on ownership percentage, but if you want a unique one, there are plenty of considerations.

The Combinations

Are you viewing this injury as an opportunity to maximise the cash he has left available and, with two trades, look to improve your team? This can be an opportunistic way to correct your structure or fix up some missed opportunities.

In the backline alone, we’ve got many options delivering considerably stronger points return than their price point. For example, all Trent Rivers, Darcy Macpherson, Jayden Hunt, Connor McKenna, Liam Stocker, and even the cow many missed in Max Michaelanney deliver above their price tag. Could a double-trade combination of names like this help your structure and put your team in better points-scoring and cash-generation space in the long run?

While I’ve listed a combination of defenders, the strategy needs to be looked at broader than that. For example, can you use the injury to get James Worpel, Jacob Hopper, or Finn Callaghan moved on if you no longer wish to employ their services? Take a moment to look at your team and see if there is a combination of moves that can help get it back to where you want it to be.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

Possible DPP’s | Round Six

Read Time:9 Minute, 36 Second

Before rounds 6, 12 and 18, the gang at Champion Data add some new DPP into the game. After the round, the first list of names and positions will be released. Historically, players need at least 35% to be considered for a new position allocation and at least four games. So let’s see which players are locked, close or have no chance of getting DPP.

Embed from Getty Images

ADD DEFENDER

Harry Sheezel

He’s the #1 forward in the game and is one of the easiest positional gains ever. Harry Sheeezel has had one of the greatest starts we’ve ever seen from a first-year player. The more interesting conversation is when we should start viewing him as a ‘premium’ in our teams for the season. The beauty of this move is it now releases the pressure for coaches at D6.

Jack Ziebell

Jack Ziebell played exclusively as a defender like his teammate above in 2023. This role is identical to the one he held back in 2021, where he is taking kick in’s, controlling the play, and he became an important player in fantasy coaches’ success. Much like that year, he’s started as a midprice option delivering enough to be considered a premium on the current trends. A great early-season riser that’s about to become a DEF/FWD.

Lachie Whitfield

In the offseason, Adam Kingsley telegraphed multiple role moves for the Giants established stars; one was for Lachie Whitfield to get back to his distributing role across halfback. We’ve seen him play in this role for the entirety of the season.

He is ripe for the picking! Not just because he’s getting DEF status allocated alongside his midfield eligibility, but against the Bombers, he started to get his old scoring game going and began to look like his former premium self. With many chasing the value of Tom Stewart or looking to get up and into Jordan Dawson, James Sicily or Nick Daicos, some astute owners might be getting a bargain should Whitfield be able to return to his 100+ averaging scoring in this role.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera

I love what NVM is doing at St Kilda and can see him becoming one of my favourite players. He rarely makes a poor decision and has the skills to back up his elite footy IQ. So it’s no surprise to see Ross Lyon move him into the back six and allow his skillset to propel his side forward out of the defensive half. His relevance is mostly in drafts, but for current owners, he’ll become a helpful boost in your backline stocks. If he’s sitting in the player pool, he’ll be well worth picking up if you can ahead of his likely DPP addition.

Become a Patron!

Cam Guthrie

Flying under the radar in the DPP conversation is Geelong premiership player Cam Guthrie. The absence of Mitch Duncan and Tom Stewart has meant that the Cats coaching staff have flipped the magnets around and made some structural moves. One of those has been with Cam joining his brother Zach across halfback.

The return of Duncan & Stewart might tip him back into the midfield unit, but if he’s done enough to jag DEF status, this could be a brilliant addition. Last week against the Hawks, he saw a move back towards the midfield tile. He’s got multiple years of averaging over 100, and given his price point, he might be someone to grab immediately.

Lachie Ash

Another Giants ‘Lachie’ finds himself in the DPP discourse. Lachie Ash has the speed for days, and alongside Whitfield, he’s part of the revamped rebounding core of GWS under Adam Kingsley. He’s had a few good weeks recently and would be a handy gain in draft leagues. I’d be surprised if he’s not awarded DEF/MID status.

Kane Farrell

This one is more draft and daily fantasy relevant, but Kane Farrell should pick up defender status. Late in 2022 and throughout this preseason, we saw the pear happily using him across halfback. This role has resulted through the season proper as Port have looked to shake up their back six. Depending on the depth of your draft league, he could become a helpful onfield option while, at worst, providing some bench depth.

Embed from Getty Images

ADD MIDFIELD

Will Day

So far, one of the season’s picks has been with Will Day as a midprice option in our backlines. The former halfback flanker has displayed his skills, competitiveness & workrate as he’s moved into an inside midfield role under the new-look Hawthorn midfield. He’s trending towards scoring enough to be someone we could consider holding for the season. Still, regardless of that discussion, the addition of midfield status and transition to a DEF/MID is a certainty. Lock it in!

Josh Rachele

One of the most exciting young players in the league is Josh Rachele. The Crows star is spending an increasing number of attendances at centre bounces, where he’s regularly at 30%-50% across the match. The club are trying to maximise his impact to win clerances. He then slides forward and creates chaos alongside Izak Rankine for opposition defenders. Like Will Day above and any other midfield gains we do pick up, it’s more squad versatility than anything else that’s gained. He’s not highly owned in classic, but he’s had a monster four weeks for owners in the draft and daily fantasy.

Darcy Wilmot

The young Lion is listed as a defender but has been playing most of the season across Brisbane’s wings. So throw him the DEF/MID status. It’ll be handy having the likes of Wilmot, Day, Ginbey & to a lesser extent, the Chesser and Constable all being eligible to be flipped through the midfield or backlines as necessary.

Jordan Dawson

He has spent the past two weeks playing a heavy centre-bounce midfield role. But even with another week in the role, it’s too small of a sample size for him to gain midfield status. He’s moire likely to get it heading into round 12.

Embed from Getty Images

ADD RUCK

Charlie Comben

I’m not sold that this DPP falls his way, but Charlie Comben has been the secondary ruck option behind Todd Goldstein. In addition, he spent a good chunk of round one as the lead ruck after Tristan Xerri went down injured. He’s got a few owners in SuperCoach, and the RUC/FWD DPP could be handy for them. However, he might be worth a look in deeper draft leagues or category leagues, especially with the volume of ruck injuries we’ve already seen this year.

Embed from Getty Images

ADD FORWARD

Christian Petracca

There’s been some hope in the community that CP5 would get MID/FWD status during the season. I was hoping for it too, but the data doesn’t indicate it’s coming. Despite spending sometime forward this week against West Coast and kicking multiple goals, he’d still attended an average of 71% of centre bounces over the first three games. There will need more than a full game inside forward 50 to move the DPP needle. Sorry!

Bailey Smith

Take this one to the bank. This time next week, we’ll have Bailey Smith eligible as a MID/FWD. He was a fraction away from having it in the preseason, but his MID/FWD split has been over 50% in the forward half. The resulting heavy forward time has seen a dint to his scoring, with one ton in AFLFantasy and an average of 88, while in SuperCoach, he’s going at 83 and has posted just one ton. In a few weeks, he’ll likely hit his basement and will rightly be someone many will target as part of upgrade season.

Jackson Macrae

A few weeks ago, I thought Jackson Macrae was a real shot at getting forward status added. He regularly attended only 40% of CBA’s, and the rest of the time was playing as a high half-forward for the Dogs. However, I wonder if he will gain forward status after last week. It’ll take a significant change from Luke Beveridge and potentially an exclusive forward role this week against Port Adelaide for him to get MID/FWD status. It’s still a chance, but it’s unlikely.

Taylor Adams

Since Taylor Adams was traded to Collingwood, he’s been a staple part of the Magpies midfield when he’s been available for selection. However, in 2023 the vice-captain is yet to attend 50% of centre bounces in a single game. The move out of the midfield core has been largely due to the arrival of Tom Mitchell as he’s moved to the fifth rotation spot. As a result, he’s splitting his time between the midfield and the Pies forward half. The lack of midfield time has hurt his scoring, so even with a DPP addition, he’s not someone you’d be considering in classic. Although, in draft leagues, it’s a different discussion, I suspect he’ll move from coaches benches to become a fieldable forward and likely strengthen your overall scoring power.

Cam Mackenzie

After attending sixteen centre bounces in round one, Cam Mackenzie has yet to attend a combined sixteen between rounds 2-4. The young Hawk has shown moments of brilliance in his first month of AFL. But he has started to play more as a half-forward as Day, Nash & Ward have increased their midfield presence. He’s one of the most highly owned cash cow midfielders, and the potential DPP would add some further forwardline depth & possibly add some increased life on our sides.

Zaine Cordy

I’ll be clear. This isn’t draft-relevant, daily fantasy relevant or classic-relevant. But Zaine should get FWD status added. So much has been made of the Saints lack of talls in the forward line, resulting in Cordy being moved forward. He’s not worth considering, but the DPP addition is warranted.

Ben Keays

Late last year, we saw Matthew Nicks deploy Ben Keays as part of the Crows forward line. The thought process was that Ben could use his endurance running to get up and down the ground and become an extra midfielder around the ground. While also using his defensive ability to hold the opposition’s best rebounder to account. The probable addition of MID/FWD means he moves from an ‘underperforming’ midfielder to likely a team’s second-best forward. A worthy DPP gain should the gang at Champion Data see fit.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

Top 10 Scores of 2023 | Round Two

Read Time:14 Second

There are not many better feelings than having the top-scoring players of a round. But what is better is owning the players with the best season scores. So throughout 2023, we’ll keep you updated with who has delivered the top 10 scores for AFLFantasy & SuperCoach.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

What Should I do with Rory Laird?

Read Time:7 Minute, 11 Second

One of the most talked about players of the preseason was Rory Laird. The Adelaide Crow was the most expensive player in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam. However, after one of his lowest career scores, the fantasy community is asking, what should I do with Rory Laird?

Embed from Getty Images

It was a less-than-ideal start, I’m not going to lie. A 57 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 50 in SuperCoach was between 50-80 points less than what owners would’ve loved to experience. But it’s what it is; great fantasy coaches adapt and react to situations, and, for a third of the competition, the opportunity is now about what happens from round two onwards. So before deciding whether they should be holding or trading Laird, you need to ask yourself a few questions.

Was that a once-off?

Regardless of the format, it’ll be hard to consider moving him off if you believe it was an isolated game. One bad score doesn’t dictate your season. For example, in 2021, Touk Miller scored 68 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 80 in SuperCoach in round one. However, by the time the season was over, he’d boast an average north of 120 across all formats. The biggest fantasy lament you could have had is ‘jumping off’ after one poor score.

I’ve played all salary cap formats for over a decade, and every year, the season’s opening round always throws up some odd games and scores. However, the overwhelming evidence, in my opinion, would lend itself to suggesting that this would be an isolated match.

Rory Laird and GWS’ Toby Greene stated that the extreme heat was like nothing they’d ever experienced. Laird told SEN SA,’ I found it very difficult on the day.’ Across the last quarter, both teams had multiple players suffering from severe cramps. Does this, in isolation, explain the poor score? Of course not. But it does give important information.

In that same interview, he went on further by saying ‘GWS didn’t put a hard tag on me, but they had an emphasis around stoppage (for us) not to get any connection, not only with me but we found it pretty hard throughout the whole midfield to connect. Watch that game back, not just the fantasy scores, and what do you see? Complete dominance from the entire GWS midfield. Tom Green, Callan Ward, Stephen Coniglio, Finn Callaghan and Josh Kelly beat up the Crows midfield.

Where is the Adelaide midfield strongest? Contest & pressure work in tight, but the Giants midfield got to work and denied them of this game style. It’s not a surprise that this, alongside the extreme heat combined with Laird having a dog of a day.

If you think Sunday’s game was an isolated incident, you cannot trade him. You built your starting squad with him in mind and created the space with your salary cap to include Laird. So don’t exaggerate the pain of a poor score by trading him. One poor score will not define the season for you.

Was it a mistake for your team and style?

Nobody likes admitting a mistake, but was starting Laird a mistake for you? This question shouldn’t factor in Rory’s scoring but rather be more about your overall squad structure. One of the reasons to trade Rory that I could empathise with is it enables you to ‘fix’ your team and it’s structure. After seeing the week of data, you realised you made some significant mistakes. But Rory, while the most financially valued piece, I’d encourage you to investigate all other options in your squad before making him the ticket to ‘freedom.’

This week, your greatest trading priorities should be one of the following. Dealing with the injuries like Tristan Xerri or Tom Stewart and getting the right cash cows you failed to start with, like Kade Chandler, these are the #1 priorities.

If you’ve got no injuries and nailed the cows, then attention should start heading to any ‘miss’ of your midprice picks. Players like Jacob Hopper or Dom Sheed should be in the trading gun ahead of Rory.

If Laird is the worst pick in your starting squad, then your set! Your team is in exceptional shape. Do you have to hold Laird? Ofhe’drse not, but trading him shouldn’t be done because he’s the problem. Rather by trading him, he becomes the ‘solution’ to fix up your other issues. So trading Laird isn’t about him’ but a necessary sacrifice to fix other problems.

Do you plan to trade him back?

Let’s run the thought gauntlet. If you were to trade Rory out of your side this week, what are you hoping to achieve? Trading him now does not remove that score in the 50s. While in AFLFantasy, it does not regenerate that loss of almost $50k. Trading him now further accentuates the loss and sets you a step back. On any given week, Laird can be the top-scoring player of the round; it’s the primary driver behind why you started with him.

Yes, Laird has lost cash in this format and will let’s do so in DreamTeam & SuperCoach. But ‘value’ was never, nor should it ever have the driver behind selecting him. Rory was never a one-week play. You started him because you wanted to maximise his scoring capacity for as many weeks of the season. Don’t throw that away now just because you copped his basement score of the year.

There wasn’t one ‘hardcore’ coach that wasn’t planning on having Laird in their squad at some point in 2023. The slow start has made it marginally easier for him, but they still have the challenge of trading into him and his lowest price. So in 3-4 weeks, will you, current owners or non-owners, be able to capitalise on getting him at this basement price?

The financial value isn’t the only variable you need to consider; it’s the value of a trade. How many trades will it take to return to Rory at this ‘lower’ price? It’ll be the one to move him out and a bare minimum of two to get back into him. So arguably, it could take as many as four or five total trades to move him out and ultimately back in? Is that worth it for you? If you prioritise trading him back in, which other premiums at their basement price are you missing out on?

I didn’t start him. Am I a genius?

For non-owners, the luck of the dice has fallen your way. But remind yourself that it’s the luck factor that’s played out. At quarter time, Laird was 29 in SuperCoach and 27 in AFLFantasy. It could have been even higher if he’d converted his two shots on goal. Every person going against Rory was looking at yet another 120 score down the barrel, and the question of ‘how will I get this beast into my team’ was already oozing.

Thankfully, non-owners, the path to Rory has become significantly cheaper for you. In AFLFantasy, he’s already had $48,000 clipped off his starting price, and with a breakeven of 174, he’s likely to slip a minimum of $20k even with a good 120 score. If he averages 100 over the next three rounds, his price will drop to approximately $887,000. That’s a decent slice of his starting price, but the challenge will still be making sure you can afford him at his possible lowest price.’

For SuperCoach & DreamTeam, while you’ll happily take the poor score, it’s not the preferred round for it to have happened. Furthermore, these formats operate off a three-week price cycle, so while it’s a helpful start, this poor score will only be a variable in just one week.

Was starting Rory a mistake? Too early to say! Was going against him the right call? Also, to early to say. Only at the season’s end will hindsight give us the clarity we need to know what was the right approach.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

Top 10 Scores of 2023 | Round One

Read Time:26 Second

Embed from Getty Images

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

I Hate Fantasy Footy

Read Time:4 Minute, 55 Second

‘It’s like you’re always stuck in second gear. When it hasn’t been your day, your week, your month, or even your year. ‘In 1995 the band The Rembrandts sang the song “I’ll Be There for You.” It’s best known as the theme song for the 90’s sitcom FRIENDS, but it could also be adequately used to describe some coaches fantasy footy round one.

Embed from Getty Images

After playing all game formats for over a decade, I can tell you that round one always throws coaches some curveballs. Unfortunately, those curveballs can come as a result of injuries. Just ask Tom Stewart owners. 33% of SuperCoach, 24% of AFLDreamTeam & 14% of AFLFantasy coaches have already earmarked one trade after this premium copped an injury-impacted vest and could not do anything over 20 across the formats.

After a blistering third term, a concussion to Josh Kelly in the last quarter prevented him from pumping out a 120+ score and will also see him miss this week. It might only be a small percentage of coaches, but those who went for the midprice ruckmen of Tristian Xerri are now staring down a restructure with him going down with a potentially long-term ankle injury.

Other curveballs can be when your premiums, for seemingly no reason, deliver some of their worst scores for over 12 months or more. FOMO caused plenty to pay up for Rory Laird, and he delivered one of his worst scores since moving into the midfield. A score in the ’50s was never on the bingo cards for 2023. Josh Dunkley struggled in the second half of the game against Port and Rowan Marshall struggled to Mark the ball.

Finally, the next curveball that determined coaches’ weekends was rookie roulette. It’s a factor always in the opening few rounds when we have the most cash cows on the ground. Some weeks you’ll nail it. Lachie Cowan was flying before a cookie ruined his game, resulting in a red vest; if he plays out the game, he probably goes north of 60 & becomes a phenomenal on-field call. Liam Jones was another injury that impacted the cash cow scores of the week.

It wasn’t all doom and gloom this weekend. Nick Daicos was at his prolific best in defence and thrilled owners that ‘kept the faith’ after fears tagged games, or the second-year blues would hurt him. Of course, that still might happen, but it’s a satisfying feeling being an owner. Popular MID/FWD Tim Taranto gave us a tasty ton on his club debut. As did Jason Horne-Francis, who, especially in SuperCoach, was electric!

Fremantle defenders of Hayden Young, Brennan Cox and Luke Ryan marked their way to some monsters. Alongside the good scoring backs was James Sicily, who has continued to fly under the ownership radar. Jarrod Witts rewarded those who jumped on his friendly matchup, while other rucks Max Gawn and Tim English, weren’t far off the mark.

Tom Green and Luke Davies-Uniacke were popular ‘value’ premiums and certainly scored well above their price point. While some of our midprice guys certainly popped. Will Setterfield, James Worpel and Finn Callgahan all did their job and will make plenty of cash for their owners if they keep scoring like that.

And from a scoring cows perspective, we had some ripper scores. Harry Sheezel, Kade Chandler, Cam Mackenzie, Luke Pedlar, Reuben Ginbey and Jye Menzie did more than enough to reward coaches who placed them on the field.

If you have these players, you probably feel like you’ve won the lotto. Enjoy it! If you’ve got a good cow score on the bench but don’t own them, remember you’ll be saving a trade to get them, and you’ll have (In AFLFantasy anyway) banked the cash generation. If you don’t have them, it’s OK to be annoyed, but now it’s time to move on. Make the corrective trade and move forward. The first few trades we make most seasons are all correctional. Make the trade, shake the dust off your feet and move into the new round.

One of the most significant factors to success in this game is luck! Of course, you need skill, research, and intuition to put yourself into contention. But ultimately, luck is the ingredient that determines success or failure. And luck is entirely out of your control.

So, as we enter round two, if things roll your way in round one, enjoy it! It’s nice to be on the right side of the lucky dice roll. But be careful how hard you flex on others. Australians love nothing more than to tear down a tall poppy. After all, next week, luck might turn against you.

If you had a bad week, remember we are just one week into the year, it’s less than 5% of the year. You’ve got time to make amends. The priorities for you this week and next are:

Identify which cash cows you missed and make the corrective trades. Cash generation is king at this time of year.
If you have an injured player that will miss multiple games, trade them out.
In your preseason research, don’t overreact and trade a guy out because of one bad game. Round one always has some unique variables in footy. Weird things happen in week one.

Lastly, as The Rembrandts sang, “I’ll be there for you.” Here at the Coaches Panel, we’ve got you covered for the 2023 season!

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

MJ’s AFLFantasy Team Reveal

Read Time:7 Minute, 17 Second

On Monday, a poll was sent out on Twitter, and the question was asked, of the three formats, which side did you want to see revealed by MJ? You answered AFLFantasy, so here it is. My AFLFantasy Team Reveal for 2023.

Embed from Getty Images

Defenders

40% of AFLFantasy coaches have Sam Docherty at D1; the motivation behind the selection is twofold. Firstly, I rank him clear & supreme as the best defender for us this year. Second, starting him means I no longer need to navigate how to get him in. Every coach will want to own him at some stage, so why endure the pain of navigating the how during the season? I’m locking him in and taking away the potential for pain.

D2 is one of the positions that’s seen the most players. I’ve had Jordan Dawson, Tom Stewart, and Hayden Young sit in the spot over the preseason. I’ve settled on Andrew McGrath. Not just for his price point, but his role & the Essendon game style seem conducive to him pushing an average towards 90.

Elliot Yeo is an undeniable value, given he’s a proven 100 guy in the past. His ownership of 40% now places him in the range where the ‘risk’ of him breaking down and forcing a trade is now less than ‘taking him on’ and going against him and playing the percentages here.

Charlie Constable has made that quarterback role his own in the Gold Coast team and looks to be a valuable money maker while the Suns continue to have others who have played that role recover from injury. Reuben Ginbey should get named for a debut. He looked excellent in the preseason games, and his halfback/midfield rotation means he’s worthy of placing on the field. Lachie Cowan has already been confirmed to debut and has won the race to take the role vacated by an injured Zac Williams.

Lastly, my bench cows are standard across the community. Both Darcy Wilmot and Campbell Chesser will see plenty of footy this year, and based on their preseason, they’ll be right in the mix for round one.

Midfield

The most expensive player in the game is Rory Laird. Since he moved into the midfield midway through 2020, he’s scored forty tons, twenty-one of which have been over 120; in just four of these matches, he’s gone under 90 and averaged 115. He’s been the most reliable premium midfielder of the past 50 games! I know some are concerned about the flagged round-one tag by the Giants, but I’m not just starting Laird because of his round-one matchup in isolation. I’m convinced he’s the clear #1 midfielder this year. Will he likely be cheaper at points in the season? Yes! Even if he drops $100,000, he’s still north of $900k; that’s a ton of cash to get into in the opening handful of rounds. But the key in salary cap games is this. The price only matters if you are trading into or out of a player. So I’m removing the headache of finding a way to get him.

Have you looked at the Fremantle fixture? From round two, they play North Melbourne (home), West Coast (home), Adelaide (away), Gold Coast (home), Western Bulldogs (home), Brisbane (away) & Hawthorn (home). That is as good as a run can get. Andrew Brayshaw has shown he’s got the captaincy potential with big ceilings, and I’m banking on him tearing it up during this stretch.

Jackson Macrae isn’t unique, but having him at M3 probably is. The most overused word in the AFLFantasy community this preseason has been value. Yes, it’s important, but only some important variables to consider. You can have a successful season and invest big chunks of your salary cap on the expensive guys. In 2021, I finished with a top 30 rank & had a very similar philosophy. Of course, investing big cash requires them to score well early. Still, the relative ‘risk’ is comparable to going heavy on stepping stones and ‘value’ premiums and making multiple ‘corrective moves’ early. Remember, AF is a ‘trading game’, and that’s where your success/failure is linked.

Finn Callaghan is an important piece to my structure for multiple reasons. Firstly, because he does present significant value, he’s priced at 45, and from what I’ve seen from his junior days right through to his limited AFL opportunities is that with the right role, he could clear an 80 comfortably. In addition, Adam Kingsley has stated he’ll have the wing/inside midfield rotation, and that’s perfect for his scoring potential to be realised. But it’s not just the upside about Finn; it’s the fact that he’s a perfect parachute option If I need to pivot and fore a restructure on any line.

Post round one; I could easily pivot him down to the cash cow I missed that’s popped and pocket an easy $100,000-$150,000. That money can be instantly used on any of the other mid $700k players I’ve selected and get them to a topline option. Also, suppose some of my basement cows aren’t named like Darcy Wilmot. In that case, he will become the first man to create the necessary salary cap to make the changes I need without sacrificing my premiums.

Every man and his dog should have Will Ashcroft & Cam Mackenzie on the field; while Will Phillips will be popular, I’ve chosen to phase him onto my bench. While I’m convinced he plays loads of footy this year, his exact function is still being determined in that deep midfield mix. So I’d rather watch and learn with him on the bench. Lastly, Alyn Davey Jnr opens up the DPP link between my midfield and forward lines.

Rucks

Rowan Marshall should be in every serious AFLFantasy coach’s team. Last year he averaged 105 when he played without Paddy Ryder as the #1 ruck, and he’ll hold down that spot this year. We’ve even seen in his preseason game that he’ll dominate in this role and isn’t someone I’ll try and take on. Darcy Cameron was a popular pick early in the preseason, but the community has cooled on him for multiple reasons. I’m not bullish on him, but he’s a functional pick for me. At best, he is my stepping stone to a potentially cheaper Tim English, who has a tough early fixture. At worst, I abandon him this time next week & use one of my parachute plans to make it happen.

Forward

Over the preseason, we’ve talked about the fantastic four: Stephen Coniglio, Tim Taranto, Connor Rozee and Josh Dunkley in the forward premiums. But the practice games of Errol Gulden and his subsequent ownership mean it’s now the fantastic five. You’ll need a minimum of three, but I’ve settled on four and faded Stephen Coniglio for my team. If the ‘tagger’ talk insinuated from GWS is true, then at least one of Stephen Coniglio, Josh Kelly & Tom Green must receive a CBA clip for the negating midfielder to squeeze in. For me, Cogs is the most likely, and it’s just one of the reasons I’ve opted out of him.

Harry Sheezel is a popular cash cow on the field & looks like the best-scoring prospect of the forward class. However, I can’t believe Jye Menzie is in just 2% of teams! To me, he’s one of the best cash cow forward prospects we have. I’d be shocked if he isn’t named & he could be one of the most traded-in players in round two. His matchup against Hawthorn in round one as a small/medium forward is one I’m very excited to see unfold.

Fergus Greene will be a gift for us and is worthy of an onfield spot for those needing it at F6 if required. He’ll see plenty of game time this year for the Hawks. Luke Pedlar has been one of the Crows standouts on the track. Talent has never been an issue; it’s been getting atop his body. Under Darren Burgess, he’s fit, firing and ready to deliver on his potential. Finally, Kade Chandler is an interchangeable casement cow based on selection news.

Full Team

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

Rids SuperCoach Team Reveal

Read Time:1 Minute, 33 Second

Round one is just a few days away, so it’s time for me to reveal the SuperCoach side for the upcoming 2023 season. Enjoy it!

Defenders

James Sicily and Sam Docherty are the two premium defenders I am the most comfortable with. Elliot Yeo picks himself. Liam Jones, I struggled with it. I am uncomfortable having him at d4 and feel he is the most likely to burn a few trades early to fix if he fails. At least he is gaining popularity. Reuben Ginbey and Charlie Constable pick themselves if they get named.

Midfield

I decided to go a little thinner in the mids to fit in the big five forwards. I also think there are big questions around many of the top mids. The two that I don’t have questions about are Rory Laird and Clayton Oliver. Tom Green will take the next step in SC this year and end the season as an uber mid. Jacob Hopper is a clearance beast and should thrive in the Richmond setup.

The jungle drums have been beating loudly about Finn Callaghan for a while now. I usually hate starting players around the 250,000 range, but with 36 trades and boosts, it can be rectified easily enough this year. Finally, will Phillips start on the field I have more faith in him than a forward rookie in SuperCoach.

Rucks

Sean Darcy is SC proven to a point. He is the fittest I have ever seen him. Rowan Marshall picks himself.

Forward

I’m starting the fab five forwards. Josh Dunkley, Stephen Coniglio, Connor Rozee, Tim Taranto and the newest member to the five, Errol Gulden. It just feels right to start this year. Having Alwyn Davey Jnr on the mid-bench allows flexibility to swing them into the mids if required. Harry Sheezel rounds out the on-field forwards.

Full Team

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %