Kane and MJ continue on their ranking of the keeper leagues. This tier has nearly 1/5 of the entire list in this tier. Check out who we have and why
Embed from Getty ImagesTaylor Adams
| KANE | Oh, Taylor Adams, where do we start? Let’s go with the positives first, such is my nature. Simply put, the guy scores when he plays a full game. In the final nine games of 2021 he averaged 108 points and delivered seven tons. In 2017 he played every game and averaged 115 points and in 2020 he played all 17 games in the shortened format and delivered an adjusted average of 114. Those are uber numbers for any fantasy player. The negative is his availability. Outside of 2017 and 2020 where he didn’t miss a game, Adams other games tallies since 2016 are 14, 19, 10 and 14 respectively. That’s way too much missed time and exactly why he isn’t in the higher tiers. You just can’t guarantee he’ll be as available for 85% of the season. Adams scoring power will always warrant a high pick and can certainly yield high returns but you’d want to support him with some durable premiums and a deep bench to not leave yourself exposed in the midfield. |
| MJ | He has the scoring power of a top two or three tier player, but he’s got the career injury concerns that mean picking Taylor Adams too high in a new keeper could be catastrophic. Since debuting TayTay has just two seasons where he’s played every match possible. Of the other 8 seasons, he’s missed anywhere from 3 to 12 games per year. The thing that you have to love about Adams is his relentless ability to score well. Since 2015 his seasonal averages hasn’t dropped below 90. Last year he averaged 100, but his final 10 games were fire. He scored 8 tons, with four of them over 115. At 28 years old he’s still worth the draft capital in this tier. At best he’ll give you 3-4 years of a certain 100 average. At worst, well it’s injury affected, but my encouragement if picking him or any player with a poor injury history is to support this draft pick with another pick. Select an extra midfielder, create security for yourself as history says you’ll need the cover multiple times. |
Ollie Wines
| KANE | What a season 2021 was for Ollie Wines. A Brownlow Medal and a career-best fantasy year has him in the top 50 keeper prospects for the first time since 2016 for mine. After seven solid years of averaging between 90-100, Wines exploded to average 112 points in 2021 while playing every home and away game for the first time since 2018. It’s no surprise with an 112 average that we saw both Wines’ floor and ceiling rise this year. His lowest score was 70 points but in 20 games he scored more than 90 points and 15 of those were triple figures. His ceiling was on full display in the second half of the season. Pre-bye he averaged 106 points but post-bye he averaged 118 which featured his three highest scores of the year – 154, 151 and 140. I’d never seen Wines display the running power he demonstrated in 2021 so I think we have to declare that he’s a different player to those previous years. However, I can’t see him recreating his numbers of this year going forward. For me he’s a 100-107 option averager and an absolute rock in your midfield for another three to four years. |
| MJ | For years Ollie Wines has been a good, but not great keeper option. From 2014-2020 he’d consistently averaged between 91-100 and provided a level of reliability for his owners. In 2021 the reigning Brownlow Medalist found another gear. He averaged career high possession numbers (32), up to five per game from his previous best year. In addition to this, his uncontested and mark count were personal bests. In short. Ollie developed an outside part to his game, where he no longer become an ‘inside bull’ only, but a rounded midfielder. It’s no surprise he averaged 112, score 15 tons and dropped his scoring beneath 85 just once. At 26, we’ve still got 5-6 years of peak Wines performances. But will they be close to his Brownlow year or the previous 5 seasons? For me, I believe it’s somewhere between the two. |
Caleb Daniel
| KANE | Caleb Daniel and Jayden Short I’m going to couple together because from a fantasy perspective they deliver basically the exact same thing. 25 years of age: comfortably five years of premium output ahead Long term defenders: no concern about losing back statusPremium scorers: they’ve already demonstrated 85+ scoring and are in their prime now High floor, low ceiling: both only hit 120+ once in 2021 but also they rarely scored under 80 (Short did it four times, Daniel six) I’m not going to waste words here. With Daniel and Short you’re getting a year-in year-out top 10 defender for the next five years. |
| MJ | Did you watch the Grand Final? If you did, I probably don’t need to create much more of a compelling case for you to own Caleb Daniel than that game. The bulldogs love to get the ball into his hands to create both rebounds off defensive 50, but also damaging plays heading into their own attacking half. Since making the transition to the backline he’s averaged 93, 88 (BCV), and last season an 86. Daniel does possess a higher range of scoring deviation than I’d like, but like with anyone who can throw up a poor sub 50 score, you need to be able to counter it with some 120+ performances to balance that out. Thankfully for Daniel, he can do that. At 25, he’s still got another 6-7 seasons of playing that core distributor role for the Doggies and for as long as he plays as a defender, he’ll be one of the safest 85+ averaging backs you’ll get in a keeper league. |
Jayden Short
| KANE | Caleb Daniel and Jayden Short I’m going to couple together because from a fantasy perspective they deliver basically the exact same thing. 25 years of age: comfortably five years of premium output ahead Long term defenders: no concern about losing back statusPremium scorers: they’ve already demonstrated 85+ scoring and are in their prime now High floor, low ceiling: both only hit 120+ once in 2021 but also they rarely scored under 80 (Short did it four times, Daniel six) I’m not going to waste words here. With Daniel and Short you’re getting a year-in year-out top 10 defender for the next five years. |
| MJ | As Kane has highlighted, the parallels between Caleb Daniel and Jayden Short are scarily similar. Jayden is rated elite in the league for meters gained, disposals and rebound 50’s. Further to these elite ratings, his kick to handball ratio is 3:1. Which is perfect for us keeper coaches. Since the start of 2020 Short hasn’t missed a game. That year he averaged 90.87 in a BCV equivalent. To further prove it wasn’t a scoring anomaly In 2021 he averaged 93. That consisted of nine tons, and in just two occasions did his scoring dip sub 70. At 26 years of age at the start of next season, not only is in his prime of scoring he’s also got long term defensive positional stability. GUN! |
Max Gawn
| KANE | Max Gawn’s keeper stock obviously isn’t what it was three to four seasons ago but he’s still one of the best rucks in the game and a player that goes a long way to winning now. Despite Gawn hitting 30 years of age prior to the 2022 season commencing there’s no signs of deterioration in his game. Gawn delivered a 109 average in 2021 across all 22 home and away games. Gawn’s floor was remarkable again in 2021 with only three scores sub 90 (72, 73 and 84) to go with 15 tons (four of which were 130+). There’s some concern in the community that Luke Jackson’s continual growth will severely hamper Gawn’s scoring but I don’t see the major dip. We have to remember that 2022 is only season three for Jackson so he’s still a number of years away from taking the burden of a No. 1 ruck role. A positive for Gawn owners may arrive in 2024 in the form of forward status as Jackson continues to see more centre bounce action. It’s probably wishful thinking to expect more than three premium seasons out of Gawn but even if it’s just two I think you can push hard in that time with him to secure a premiership. |
| MJ | Are his best years really behind him? It’s a narrative in the community, but I think it’s false. Check out these seasonal averages 2018: Avg 1112019: Avg 1112020: Avg 123.6 BCV2021: 108 AVG – 3 scores below 90, 15 tons, 5 120+ As Kane has touched on, his average from this season is much more aligned with the ‘normative’ scoring for gawn rather than his exceptional 2020. No doubt there’ll be ruck sharing with Luke Jackson, both as he develops but also as the Demons try to prepare Max for a big few years of premiership defence. A potential positive is he’ll likely end career as RUC/FWD DPP. The question Gawn owners need to ponder is how quickly (if at all) you handcuff him to Luke Jackson? |
Rowan Marshall
| KANE | It’s when not if for Rowan Marshall in a keeper. The fact that he’ll be 26 years of age at the start of 2022 and has already delivered premium numbers in the past three seasons is remarkable. The clear handbrake that every Marshall owner is waiting to be released is Paddy Ryder. While Ryder is in the Saints team he’ll be their primary centre bounce ruckman as that’s the best part of his game. This currently has relegated Marshall to second-fiddle and spending the bulk of his time forward. The positive with Marshall’s current role is that he’s a ruck-forward and yet he can still score. The season that will see Marshall’s stock rise to an all-time high will be the year he’s primary ruck and starts the season with forward status. That one year will be a massive advantage for the coach that owns him but even after that I see him as a 100 averaging ruck and that’s a piece that will hold any side in great stead going forward. |
| MJ | The year is 2024… which rucks are at the top of the tree? Is Brodie Grundy still there? Some might have Sean Darcy or even Reilly O’Brien. All validate candidates. But I propose another option? Rowan Marshall. By then, Rowan might well be the #1 ruck option in the game. Marshall might be sharing ruck duties with Paddy Ryder for now, but I believe in 12 months time this RUC/FWD will be playing as a sole ruck. In 2019 when he was solo ruck he averaged 99 and posted twelve tons. Last year he averaged 89 from 13 games with just five tons. Here’s the interesting split, all of these hundreds were when Ryder wasn’t playing. In fact he averaged just 77 from the seven games they played together. However, in the six games he rucked solo he averaged 103.7 The beauty of Marshall for one lucky owner is you’ll get a Unicorn season from him in the next season or two. Where he’s RUC/FWD eligible but playing as a pure ruck, meaning he’ll likely average 100+. |
Hugh McCluggage
| KANE | It’s rare to see players increase their average each year but through his first five seasons that’s exactly what Hugh McCluggage has done. At 23 years of age and fresh off his first 100 point season McCluggage is already in rarified air. Even if he was just to maintain his current output he’d be a top 25 midfielder for the next seven years, which can’t be understated. I do think there’s a bit more improvement in McCluggage though. Currently, he plays predominantly an outside role but he’s certainly capable of playing on the inside if required and it will only take a couple more CBA’s to push his average to 105 and then he’s inside the top 20. The other factor you have to love about McCluggage is his availability. In the past four seasons he’s played every game bar one! While he might never deliver a 110+ season I think his reliability and availability will make him an excellent keeper for many years to come. |
| MJ | I’m not sold Hugh McCluggage ever gives us the monster 110-115+ season, that’s due to him likely being more outside impacting midfielder. But that said, I don’t see him dropping under 95-105 for the next 8 seasons. Last season he averaged 100, it included thirteen tons, eight of these were over 110, and just twice last season his scoring dipped under 74. This is a breakdown of his scoring spread from last season: 50% from kicks, 16% HB, 15% marks, 14% tackles, 3% goals. That’s a player who’s not dependent on one ‘variable’ to score. An unheralded stat line for Hugh is around his durability. In the past four seasons missed one game. The human suitcase may never become the ‘monster’ elite like others on this list, but he will be a crucial cog in keeper leagues for the better part of a decade. |
Caleb Serong
| KANE | What Caleb Serong has already demonstrated in his first two seasons is phenomenal. Since earning his debut in Round 4 last year Serong hasn’t missed a game, playing 36 straight. In that time he’s already shown a massive ceiling. In Round 6 this year against North Melbourne he scored 143 points on the back of 35 disposals, seven marks and seven tackles. For comparison, fellow Tier 5 midfielder Hugh McCluggage has a career-high of 128 points despite playing another 70 games. It wasn’t just a one-off either with Serong reeling off back to back to back tons to finish the season (118, 117 and 116 in Round 21-23). In addition, to a ton and three 90s in the reduced gametime of the 2020 season. While the departure of Adam Cerra will certainly help Serong I don’t see it as the main reason for his improvement in 2022 and beyond. The real upside for Serong is that his time on ground is extremely low (70% range) and that should continue to increase as he gets more preseasons under his belt. The other thing that will help Serong is his role. This year he was tasked with numerous run-with roles in the early part of the year before being released to hunt the ball in the later part of the year. I believe that was all part of his learning and won’t be something we see often going forward. At 20 years of age there’s a decade of 100+ scoring on the horizon for this Fremantle rising star. |
| MJ | Nailing the picks inside the top 50 of a brand new keeper is critical to immediate and sustained success. Caleb Serong has the forecast potential to be among one of the best players in the years to come. If you want a long term 105 averaging midfield with potential for more you’ve got to jump ahead of where a redraft or seasonal draft league board would rank them. Last year he split his season playing some defensive minded midfield roles before being released in the last month. It was his final three weeks where he scored 18, 117 & 116 that really caught people’s attention. Across the 2021 year he averaged 82, which was made up of five tons including a personal best 143. In a BCV era 2020 we still saw the raw potential of scoring brilliance. That year he took six games before debuting with a BCV ton (aka an 80+) score. But it was back to back 90’s before he scored a pure 101 (aka 120 in BCV world). He’ll get plenty of preseason hype among the AFLFantasy community, so if you want to own him you can’t expect too many to sleep on him. |
Matt Crouch
| KANE | Let’s start with the positives surrounding Matt Crouch. From 2017 to 2020 he averaged between 105-110 points and played 90 percent of games. Throw into the mix that he’s 26 years old and should have 3+ years of elite scoring ahead of him, you’d be fair to ask why he’s not in a higher tier. Well that’s where we do have to address the negatives. When you miss a whole season through injury, alarm bells are rightly going to go off. Particularly, when the injury is a groin and is prone to linger and re-occur. There’s also some concern around how Adelaide will structure their midfield and amount of opportunity Crouch may get with Laird and Keays coming off impressive seasons and the plethora of youth the Crows are trying to develop. I still believe Crouch is one of their top centre bounce midfielders but any dip in attendance would negatively impact his scoring. Hopefully by the time you have to make a decision on drafting/trading Crouch we have an update on how his body is progressing through the preseason. Clearly there’s some massive risk if he’s unable to get on the park but there’s also plenty of upside with his scoring power. |
| MJ | One of the greatest dangers in keepers is that with established players you go ‘too far back’ in their scoring history. By osmosis, you can start to value them at a potentially inflated price and begin paying a draft position based on who they’ve been not what they’ll deliver. In the case of Matt Crouch, I don’t believe that’s a risk you need to worry about. At 26, he’s still right in the prime of his career and should he Looking back at his most recent season, 2020 was a bizarre season for Crouch. Before getting dropped in round four due to poor form, Crouch was averaging 64.3 (80 adjusted) and had a top score of 72. When he returned in round five he scored 4 tons, 4 additional scores over 90, 2 over 80 and had the lowest score of 75. In these final 13 matches, he averaged 93.9 (adjusted 117) The years prior he averaged 106, 104 & 106. Clearly, the risk with Crouch isn’t scoring ability, it’s what level does he return to post a season ruined by injury? That is the big question coaches will need to answer before investing in him. |