Keeper League Ranks | Tier Four | Patreon Exclusive

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We start to enter into the top 20 players of the keeper rankings. Here’s MJ and Kane’s take on the players in tier four.

Marcus Bontempelli

KANE

We’ve classified tier four as dependable and Marcus Bontempelli demonstrates that in every part of his fantasy game.
Firstly, he’s always available. In the past six seasons he’s played every game in five of them and the one season he didn’t in 2018, he missed just three games.
His scoring is ultra-consistent. His lowest score for the season was 75 and he produced tons in 16 games, including eight 120+.
There’s also some role security now. The Bulldogs have strengthened their key position stocks with Aaron Naughton, Tim English, Josh Bruce, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Josh Schache and soon to be father-son Sam Darcy. These additions should allow Bont to play bulk midfield minutes and rest forward, which is the perfect mix.
This makes Bont near-bulletproof as a fantasy option. He’ll likely be a 105-110 midfielder for the next three to five years and will likely finish his career with forward status. A genuine superstar of the AFL and fantasy landscape.

During the 2020 season in AFLFantasy, Marcus Bontempelli posted 3 tons, 2 of these were over 120 in a season high 145 against the Crows. Additionally, he posted eight more scores over 80. In fact, across the whole season, he had just two scores below 80 all year. Don’t forget that 80 was the 100 of 2020. He finished the season on fire as one of the most prolific scorers. He averaged 99 (adjusted average 124) from round 10 to the season’s end.
I highlight his previous year as it reminds us that Bont didn’t just have a strong premium season in 2021. He’s now constantly doing it. This year he averaged 107, scored sixteen tons with half of these triple figure scores over 120. That’s a more than adequate return, given some of the fantasy community believe he boasts no scoring ceiling.
At 26 years of age at the start of next season, you could build a case for Bont being deemed one of the all time great Bulldog players ever.
In 4-5 years, he’ll likely regain MID/FWD status as he wraps up his career. But until then, he’ll be a pure midfielder and should dominate games consistently.

Josh Kelly

KANE

We all know the scoring power of Josh Kelly in the past five seasons he’s averaged between 103 and 115 points.
Clearly the knock on Kelly is his availability but there’s signs to suggest that might be turning around. The troubling years that saw fantasy coaches lose faith in his body were 2018 and 2019. Across those two years he could only muster 29 games but in the previous two seasons he’s played 35 of a possible 39 and two of them he missed were due to a Shane Mumford knee to the head.
Typically Josh Kelly’s role in the Giants side has remained consistent, as CBA midfielder or plays stints on the wing. However, to start the 2021 we saw him deployed as a half-forward and this severely impacted his scoring. In the first six games Kelly averaged 86 points in this role with a high of 91. Thankfully for coaches he was moved back into his CBA heavy role and averaged 111 points in his final 15 games of the season.
At 26 years of age Kelly has plenty of quality seasons ahead of him. While his body still warrants some concern it’s not as much as two years ago. The Giants still don’t seem satisfied with their midfield mix which could see some inconsistent scoring for Kelly but overall he just gets the job done year in year out and has the ceiling of a top 5 player in the game.

One of the most bizarre moves of the season came when for the opening six rounds of the season GWS played Josh Kelly as a high half forward.
While his scoring wasn’t poor, it lacked his historical consistent scoring. However, once the class of Lachie Whitfield returned the Giants from round seven onwards Kelly returned back into his customary role
From this point on he averaged 111, it featured 12 tons in this stretch of games. This scoring mirrors the trend of his recent history. Since 2017 he;s averaged 112, 108, 115, 105 BCV) and this years 103. 26 at start of season
Scoring ability has never been a concern, injuries have. But is that now a thing of the past? He missed just the one game this season, and that was only due to the condensed AFL fixture and a 5 day turn around. The giants confirmed that had it been another 24 hours more and he would’ve played.
Josh Kelly does have an element of risk, both in an extended injury history and a growing trend that is seeing Leon Cameron happy to move almost any player magnet position around.
Amidst the risk, coaches can offset part of that with future draft picks and load up further on the midfield. Finally, there aren’t that many player who have multiple seasons of proven years averaging 110+, Josh Kelly has that. And at 26, he’s still got a few more in him yet.

Lachie Neale

KANE

Lachie Neale is the exact type of guy you want in a keeper league. Outside of 2021 which saw him suffer multiple in-game injuries and miss seven games, Neale had missed just two games in his previous seven home and away seasons. That’s the type of durability you can only dream of from your elite players and Neale’s scoring certainly is elite.
In his three seasons at Brisbane he has played 54 home and away games and in that time has scored 32 tons. It’s particularly impressive when you note that he has demonstrated a ceiling of 140+ scores.
While Neale is certainly in the back half of his career and will turn 29 in the 2022 season there doesn’t seem to be a dramatic fall coming. He’s still one of the most polished players in traffic and covers the ground beautifully. I don’t see why he can’t keep scoring into his mid 30s like Travis Boak, such is his professionalism and dedication to his craft.

Lachie Neale is certainly on the older scale of a keeper league, but he still has so much to offer his owner.
At 28, he’s not exactly falling off the cliff either. So much of this past season’s performance can be put down to multiple injury concerns both in season and during the preseason.In his first season as a Lion he averaged 104, while much has been made of his Brownlow season where he averaged an adjusted 122, or in reality a 98.
Last year everything went wrong in his body and yet he still found a way to play 15 games and average a 95. What should be encouraging in his form towards the back end of the season as he started to regain full health and fitness.
He scored a 120 & 110 in the final two home and away games of the year. While in finals he posted a 140 and a 99.
He’s not on the young side of his career, but in reality what are you paying for? Neale is Mr 105 for the next few seasons. Unlike 12 months ago, you’re paying for what he is over the totality of his career, and not having to form out a first round pick after the 122.

Darcy Parish

KANE

What a season 2021 was for Darcy Parish. A string of injuries to the Bombers midfield unit opened up a regular spot for him and he exploded.
From Round 6 to 16 he averaged 127 across those 10 games and reeled off scores of 160, 150, 144, 143 and 131. That’s a consistency of ceiling that only few players in the league can match.
The downside came after that stretch as opponents began to send ‘taggers’ his way. I hesitate to say taggers as it was Harry Schoenberg, Lachie Ash and Jay Rantall who kept him to scores of 68, 69 and 61 respectively. Clearly taggers were able to reduce Parish’s output but it was also the first time he’s ever reached such attention so you’d think he’d be better equipped to deal with it going forward.
I think the piece of information that makes Parish a difficult player to evaluate is that we haven’t seen him perform with a full strength Essendon midfield (Dylan Shiel, Andy McGrath and Jye Caldwell all missed large chunks of the year). From the eye-test though I loved what Parish did and see him scoring triple figures for the next five years. For me it’s on the lower end of the 100 as opposed to nearing 110+ but the potential is there and I’m sure one coach in a draft will be keen to chase that upside and I can understand why.

Over the opening five weeks of the season, he averaged 86, and his sole ton of the year to date was 117. However, from Anzac Day against the Magpies that he was fully released to play as a midfielder. So from round six onwards, here’s the stat line for Parish.
From the final 17 games of the season, he scored 11 tons, 7 of them over 120 and 2 over the monster mark of 150. He averaged 111.7 and put together a hot streak of 7 consecutive hundreds between round 6-12.
Like anything, you’ve always got to look at the narrative behind the numbers. Firstly, what caused the role change? Simple! A long-term injury to Dylan Shiel was after an almost season-ending injury to Jye Caldwell. So if injury created the opportunity, what happened upon their return?Caldwell didn’t play again in the home and away season. But Shiel did in round 19. So in the 15 games, Parish played without Dylan, he averaged 117.7. However, when Shiel did play (7 games), he averaged 79.1. That’s a differential of 38.6. More specifically, over the final five games, when both played, Dylan averaged a mere 84.4.To be clear, I don’t see a world with him moving out of the midfield role. Instead, my concern is scoring like that, which impacts his scoring ceiling

Andrew Brayshaw

KANE

After breaking out in his third season in 2020 Andrew Brayshaw continued his rise in 2021 elevating his fantasy output to an elite level.
Brayshaw averaged 104 points a game on the back of 28 disposals, five marks and five tackles. MJ and I have spoken at nauseam over the years about score builds and Brayshaw is as well-rounded as you can get for a midfielder. The advantage of scoring in different ways is it increases your floor.
Brayshaw only dipped below 80 on three occasions in 2021 and they were games when he was tagged (63 vs Carlton/Ed Curnow, 54 vs Hawthorn/James Worpel and 64 vs Brisbane/Jarrod Berry).
On the other of the spectrum his ceiling reached new heights. Brayshaw produced five scores 120+ including a monster 156 against Richmond and a 137 against Essendon.
To secure a 22 year old who has already demonstrated an elite scoring season is about as good as it gets in a keeper league and that’s before you factor in his character and leadership skills that will see him stay in this midfield role for the next 10 years.

Andrew Brayshaw has fully emerged as a genuine long term midfield premium.
After flying out of the gate with back to back tons, Andrew quickly experienced a tag for the first time in his AFL career. He delivered a 63 & 54 against the Blues and then the Hawks. It wouldn’t be the only time he received tight attention, but when he was given freedom he delivered big time.
Over the totality of 2021 he scored 13 tons, including a career high 156. He also posted an additional three scores between 90-99. Over the final 12 games of the year he dropped his scoring below 92 in just one game.
So does he have any scoring growth in him? Absolutely, both with the growth of his already evidenced ceiling, but also if he can lift those tagged score up 10-15 points.

If he can do this, as he begins his fifth AFL season he looms as one of the more safe premiums to elevate himself to averaging 110+.

Jarryd Lyons

KANE

It won’t be as long a ride as other players in the 50 but it could be extremely rewarding. Jarryd Lyons has been one of the best midfielders in fantasy across the past two and half seasons since he secured a midfield spot at Brisbane.
2021 was an insane season from Lyons. Not only did he average an absurd 117 points but he played every game and delivered 124 points in his 10 games post bye. It’s no surprise that Lyons’ floor is high and so is his ceiling. His lowest score of the year was 84 and only six times did he score below 100. His highest score for the year was 161 and on eight occasions he scored more than 130 points. That’s just outrageous.
The knock with Lyons is his age. Halfway through next year he’ll turn the dreaded 30 but like Neale he’s showing no signs of falling off a cliff. While I don’t expect him to replicate his 2021 numbers I can see an average of 110 points across the next two seasons. Coupled this with the fact that he’s a solid forward, we could get him as a forward for the final years of his career with some midfield stints.
If you grab Lyons you need to be playing for the now so let your draft strategy reflect that and take on those ready made players even if they only have a few years left.

A great strategy in keeper leagues is to target younger talent. However, sometimes coaches can go ‘too far’ and as a result be uncompetitive for multiple seasons. Kane and I have said this a few times throughout the podcasts, but a premiership in year one or two is still a premiership.
Over the past few seasons Jarryd Lyons has proven to be among one of the most consistent midfield premiums in the game. And by drafting him in your keeper, your mindset does need to be closer towards the premiership window for ‘now’ rather than in ‘2-3 seasons.’
I don’t buy into the narrative that Lyons falls off the cliff when Lachie Neale returns to form. Last year’s scoring of both players is a prime example of this.
Lyons scoring splits from last year aree a thing of beauty. Just over 42% of his points came via kicks, 22% from tackles, 20% from handballs and 12% from tackles. With splits like this, he’s very difficult to slow his scoring rate and with players like Dayne Zorko and Lachie Neale still scoring well, he’ll continue to face zero tagging pressure from opposition midfielders.