Lachie Whitfield

KANELachie Whitfield’s upside is as good as it gets. Having a defender who can average 120 is unheard of, but that’s the ceiling Whitfield possesses. 
In 2019 he averaged 114 points, but when you remove his two injury impacted scores, that average rises to 122. 
In 2020 he averaged 107 adjusted points, but when you remove his concussion impacted game, that average jumps to 113. 
In 2021 he averaged 95 points, but when you remove his concussion impacted game that average goes to 100. 
I think you catch my drift now. When Whitfield is on the field and healthy, he’s one of the best scorers in the game, let alone as a back or forward. It’s worth noting too that in draft you have a time on ground injury threshold that allows you to avoid a lot of these types of scores and field your emergency. 
Clearly, the other factor you have to acknowledge is that for whatever reason Whitfield does miss games. This year it was a nasty liver injury in the preseason that saw him miss the opening six games of the season. 
There also is some concern about what role he has in the Giants team. Whitfield has been deployed as deep as the Giants kick in taker who attacks from D50 or as high as a half-forward who pushes into the midfield and roams the ground. I don’t see these different roles yielding massively different outputs but it’s not as clear cut as other players like Jake Lloyd. 
I’m always drawn to the upside and Whitfield is the type of guy that any season could be the most valuable player in the game and if you’re chasing premierships that’s exactly what you want. 
MJ12 months ago I would have argued like Taranto Lachie Whitfield is a top tier guy. In fact, a case could’ve been made that he’s the player you should pick with the first pick in a new keeper league.
However, in the eyes of some, the concerns are starting to build. For me, they aren’t significant enough to scare me from picking him. However, it’s probably enough to fade him a tier or two.
When fit he’s a jet, but the games missed and in game injuries are slowly building. From a ‘glass half full’ perspective, none of these injuries really are related and are more on the ‘unlucky’ scale than anything else. 
Over the past three season we’ve seen him as one of the most valuable commodities in the draft as both a defender and forward. In 2019 he averaged 113 from 16 games, which featured 13 tons and a likely career high 190. 11 of his 15 games in 2020 where a BCV adjusted 100+ score, while Kane has already touched on his 2021 season.   
Whitfield is a kick first player, and even when tagged still uses his elite endurance to get into damaging spaces.
With the departures of Callum Mills and Rory Laird from the fantasy backline it opens up the possibility of Lachie being the top defender for 2022. I for one believe he will be. 
There is a risk that he becomes a midfielder only in the future, but given his positional versatility he should have multiple seasons where he’s a top tier defender or forward should that eventuate. 

Christian Petracca

KANEIt’s been an incredible past two seasons for Christian Petracca. He’s played all 39 home and away games and averaged 110 points, which puts him top 10 for total points across that time. 
The incredible part of Petracca’s game at the moment is his consistency. Only once this year did he dip below 80 and 14 times he delivered a ton. One of the main reasons for his consistency to me is his score build. In 2021 he averaged 29 disposals, 14 contested possessions, five marks, four tackles and a goal a game. There’s literally no category he’s deficit in. Additionally, he doesn’t get the tag because there’s no one who can match his power in the contest, movement around the ground and forward craft inside 50. 
The thing I think a lot of people are missing is his scoring power. In the last 12 games of the season, which stretches from Round 15 post bye all the way to the Grand Final, he averaged 117 points. In that span he reeled off 10 tons, five of which were 125+. This indicates to me there’s room for Petracca to improve on that career best average of 111 in the upcoming seasons. 
Throw in the likelihood that he’ll finish his career as a mid-forward and there’s not a lot not to like about Trac!
MJChristian Petracca is one of my favourites to own in a keeper league. The breakout took longer than keeper coaches wanted, but now that it’s happened it’s a thing of beauty.
With the adjusted game time and scores of 2020, it’s always challenging to put too much weight into the breakout. While he delivered an adjusted 108 keeper coaches will feel validated in his scoring potential after his 2021 season. 
In 2021 he averaged 110.8, scored 14 tons including 7 over 120. Oddly, he had a seven games stretch midseason where he had only 2 tons. But the front and back end of the season was fire!  CP5 averaged 115 over the first 6 and again 115 in the last 10. So arguably, he’s still got some more upside in him.
Equally as valuable as his scoring ability is his durability. Petracca has missed only one game in five years. I believe he’s the best player in the game right now, and opposition coaches can attest that night now he’s near impossible to stop. 
As we discussed in the podcast, don’t be shocked to see him regaining MID/FWD DPP in various parts of his career not just in his final few seasons. 

Callum Mills

KANEWe finally saw the role change we’d all been waiting for in 2021 from Callum Mills and he didn’t disappoint. 
Mills averaged 110 from his 18 games, but it jumps to 112 points if you remove Round 23 where he was subbed out with Achilles soreness in the third term. 
Consistency was the key to Mills’ fantasy game. In all 17 of his healthy games he scored 85 or more points and in 13 games he scored triple figures, including a 152 and 142. And again it’s no surprise that Mills has an extremely well-rounded scoring profile (28 disposals, 10 contested possessions, six marks and five tackles.)
The key for Mills going forward is can he start producing more ceiling games. Outside of his aforementioned 152 and 142, his only other 120+ scores were 133 and 121. We can’t expect a better floor but if he can start converting his 110s into 120-130s then a 115 average is within reach. 
Even if Mills is unable to up those ceiling games at 24 years of age he shapes as a top 10 midfielder for the next 5 years and there’s always the possibility for him to regain back status at the end of his career. 
MJThe role and scoring breakout finally happened! Keeper league owners for multiple seasons have been awaiting what we saw in 2021.
Callum Mills is an unassuming fantasy scorer. Those who watch the game (not the fantasty scoring during it) can be fooled into thinking he’s not scoring well. However, as Matt Boyd did for the better part of a decade, Mills just finds a way to get involved in everything and without copping much attention.   His scoring breakdown is well rounded. Consisting of 39% kicks, 24% handballs, 16% marks and 19% tackles.  To average 110 and to only deliver 3 games over 130 highlights his low scoring deviation and consistency. 
Mills will enter the 2022 season as a midfielder and farewell his defensive eligibility. The only thing we haven’t seen Callum encounter or overcome is how he handles a tag. But at 187cm and spending the majority of his AFL career as a defender, I think he’s had a solid apprenticeship to handle whatever comes his way. 
He may never become a player that delivers you a 120+ season, but he should be a highly valuable keeper commodity for the next 8+ seasons. 

Tim Taranto

KANETim Taranto bounced back from an injury-interrupted 2020 in a major way averaging 108 points. While his average wasn’t quite the same as his career best of 113 in 2019, for the majority of the season he was on pace for a career-best year.
From Round 1 to 18 he averaged 114 points, which included 13 tons and a lowest score of 86. However, in Round 19 there was a clear role change from centre bounce midfielder to forward. In the four games he played as a predominant forward he averaged 77 points and had a highest score of 98. 
This is clearly a massive concern for a player you’re drafting in the first two rounds of a keeper and while there’s some risk this role shift could continue I don’t think it’s that likely. 
I tend to think Taranto might have been carrying an injury and thus moved out of the midfield to protect him. Across his first 91 AFL games only once did he fail to lay a tackle and that was a 61% time on ground performance in his first season. In Round 19 and 20 this year he failed to lay a tackle and those were the two games he spent bulk time forward. 
To have a 23-year-old that has already produced averages of 113, 108, 94 and 91 inside his first five seasons at AFL level is insane. At worst you’re getting a top 30 midfielder for the next five years at best you could be getting a top five midfielder for the next 10 with the possibility of picking up dpp along the way. 
MJTim Taranto is the perfect reminder of how a player can move up and down the tiers within a season for keeper leagues. If this were being created mid-season you’d be hard pressed to not put him into one of the top 2 tiers.  So why the slide to tier three? It’s relatively simple. Role! I never in a million years thought that Leon Cameron would use ‘TT’ in a primary role other than as an inside midfielder.
However, in the final 5 weeks is when the role shifting started and he started playing more as a half-forward.   
During the first 17 games of the season, he averaged 113, posted 13 tons and had just one score under 90. In the final five games, he averaged 88. But that’s inflated as his big sole ton (132), was where he played back as a midfielder when Josh Kelly was a late out.  
His scoring ceiling is certainly limited if he plays significant midfield minutes. The potential upside is that if that role holds long enough he’d be a candidate to gain MID/FWD DPP. 
I don’t see any risk of selecting ‘TT’ in this tier, and at this point of a keeper draft, you cannot afford the risk. At best the 23 year old delivers on his proven history as a 110+ midfielder. Worst case scenario is he splits his time between midfield and forward but not enough to gain DPP. Therefore he probably becomes a 95 mid.
Taranto will give his owner another 7-8 seasons of top tier scoring potential.  I for one, see him delivering a ton in every single season during that stretch of time. 

Josh Dunkley

KANEI have to preface this article by saying I may be Josh Dunkley’s biggest fantasy believer. If you’ve listened to me talk about him on any podcast you’d know how highly I regard him and I think it’s warranted.  
So far his fantasy journey has had everything. In his first season he averaged 80 points and was part of the Bulldogs historic premiership. Year two a shoulder injury restricted him to just six games. 
Year three and four is where the fantasy potential started to become obvious to everyone. In 2018 he averaged 96 points, but in his 10 games post bye he went at 109. In 2019 he averaged a career-high 111 points but his season average again doesn’t tell the full story. In the first six games of the season he played forward for an average of 78 points. In Round 7 and for the remaining 16 games of the season he became a pure centre bounce midfielder and exploded, averaging 124 across the stretch. Included in that run were scores of 189, 158, 150 and 145, to showcase his elite ceiling. 
Unfortunately for Dunkley, year five and six have mirrored each other. An injury to his ankle in 2020 limited him to 11 home and away games, while a shoulder injury in 2021 kept him to 11 home and away games also. Despite missing large chunks of both seasons he’s still averaged 90+, which far from kills you. 
A lot of coaches will be scared off by his recent run of injury and inconsistent scoring (I think the two are closely linked) and overlook him inside the first two rounds but I think the upside is so high that he could be the best scorer in fantasy across the next five seasons. 
MJSome might be too turned away to grab Josh Dunkley this high in a keeper league, but his upside has his scoring potential up there with the best.
Unlike others on the list, his scoring forecast isn’t based on an unproven potential. Rather on what he has done. Over the ​​final sixteen matches of his 2019 season, he scored 14 tons, 9 of them were above 120, and 4 over 140 and an average of 123 after the move.
This is a perfect foreshadowing of what he delivered at the stuff of 2021. Before succumbing to a shoulder injury that required a reconstruction he was averaging 115 in the first six weeks of the year. In all of these games, he scored a ton, with a seasonal high including a 151.
Coming back from such a serious injury in season is an incredible effort. Throw in the fact he had to quarantine for 2 weeks after visiting a covid exposure site and it was a slower return to scoring than what he and his owners would’ve liked. Yet, over the last three finals, his tackle count started to return along with his contested possessions. In these games, he scored 95, 101 & 83.
Josh is still just 24, so time is on his side for his owners to continue to reap the benefits of his scoring. Personally, I believe he’ll retain MID/FWD status and be the top scoring forward of 2022. 

Rory Laird

KANEWhat a fantasy player Rory Laird is. Recruited off the rookie list he’s already produced seven premium seasons and none better than 2021. 
Playing as a centre bounce midfielder Laird averaged a career-high 112 points and reeled off 18 tons. Only once did he score sub 90 and that was a 75. 
The standout number for Laird though is clearly how he finished the season. From Round 12 to Round 23 he hit triple figures in every game and averaged 120 points. 
We know Laird is an incredible ball-winner (he averaged 32 disposals this year) but it was his six tackles a game that impressed me as his previous best was four and shows how well he adapted to the role change. 
In addition to his scoring prowess, Laird boasts near-perfect durability and always has the possibility of regaining back status at some point in his career. 
The one concern I see floated is the return of Matt Crouch and what impact that could have. I’m not overly fussed as I don’t see Crouch’s return reducing Laird’s CBA’s, particularly with Sloane likely to be phased out of the midfield as he enters the twilight of his career. 
At 28 years old you still have 3 years at least of strong scoring from a player who has shown to be a premium as a midfielder or defender. Throw in that he’s available every week, you can’t go wrong with Laird. 
MJRory Laird has been one of the best defensive premiums for years.  Between 2016 – 2020 he’s averaged  97, 100, 108, 97 and an adjusted 99 BCV. 
Midway through 2020, he had a role change as a pure midfielder. From then on in he averaged an adjusted 112, a foreshadowing of what was to come this season.
In 2021 this scoring trend continued. He averaged 111, scored 18 tons including 6 over 120. Throw in the fact he dipped his scoring beneath 90 just once and it was a near perfect season. 
Kane’s already highlighted the strong end to the season which would provide coaches with some confidence that perhaps he’s only getting better in the role. 
Over these podcast episodes, you’ve heard us discuss the value of a player having multiple scoring columns. Why does this matter? Simply, it enables a player to have a diversity of scoring options should one be limited either by oppositions game style or other variables.
Last year his scoring split was made up of 37% Kicks, 31% Handballs, 9% marks and 20% tackles. Laird has a near perfect fantasy game. He’s a ball winner, knows how to defend, boasts strong endurance and has the footy IQ to get into space for both offensive and defensive setups.
Not having Matt Crouch play did aid his scoring and midfield development. But Laird is so clever if anything I can only see a 5 ppg regression. Equally as likely is he hits the rare terrority of premium midfielders and backs up his 110 seasonal average. 

Jake Lloyd

KANEIt says a lot about Jake Lloyd that people are disappointed with a 98-point average but that’s the sense I’ve got from the community. 
I think most of that disappointment is rooted in just how well his previous two seasons were. In 2019 he averaged 107 and in 2020 he averaged 114*, which are mind boggling numbers for a defender and place him firmly among the top five most valuable players during that stretch. 
But you’re not here for the past and we want to know how he’ll go in the future. I have Lloyd as 90-100 defender for the next three years and wouldn’t be surprised with his elite durability (missed just one game in the past four seasons), fitness and foot skills that he can’t stretch that scoring for even five years. 
Doesn’t have the upside of some others in this tier but he’s just so safe and gives you a player to build your backline for the medium term at least. 
MJ12 months ago, Jake Lloyd was a genuine first round selection in a keeper league. Lloyd had developed his scoring to such great heights, that he was now seen by many as the undeniable clear best defender. 
While Rory Laird and Callum Mills amongst others went past his scoring last season, Jake still has something that these two no longer possess. Defensive Status!
At 28 years of age, Lloyd still delivered a solid 2021 season. It featured twelve tons and an additional five scores of 90-99. Where his scoring dried up was in his ceiling, last year he failed to deliver anything over 120. 
Regardless of this, he is still one of the most reliable and durable defensive options available. During the past six seasons, he’s missed just two matches.
The departure of Jordan Dawson doesn’t hurt his scoring upside, but it probably doesn’t drastically mean he’ll return to the 110+ seasons. However, over the next 3 seasons, I still see Lloyd as a 95-15 defender and in a keeper league given he’ll hold his status that’s a highly valuable asset.