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Career High SuperCoach Score: 141 Vs Gold Coast (2021)
Career High AFLFantasy Score: 125 Vs Brisbane (2022)
Career High SuperCoach Average: 84.5 (2022)
Career High AFLFantasy Average: 71.3 (2022)
Impact on new club
How does Fremantle plan to use Luke Jackson? It’s one of the big questions coming out of the trade period. One of his strengths is his unbelievable athletic ability. The club pitched hard for the use of his versatility to play in a variety of positions, not just limited to a key position forward or ruck.
There was some speculation that the Dockers could use him similarly to Mark Blicavs at Geelong. However, while he has the skillset, the core difference between the two teams is that the key position stocks at both ends are secured at Geelong, while up forward, that’s not the case for the Dockers.
When you look at the Dockers forward stocks, it’s quite thin in the ‘tall’ department. Fremantle allowed Rory Lobb to depart, in part only once they had secured Jackson. At the same time, Griffin Logue has also moved to North. I’m a big fan of Jye Amiss, but at 19, he’ll take time to develop. So plenty of responsibility will need to land on Matt Taberner to stay healthy. Otherwise, any plans for the Dockers to use Jackson beyond the RUC/FWD role will be damaged.
Impact on the old club
There are short-term and long-term impacts with Luke Jackson moving to the Fremantle Football Club. However, you could build a case that the Demons are in a stronger place in the short term due to losing him. That’s due to the arrival of one of the modern-day great rucks in Brodie Grundy. Without throwing any shade on Jackson, the arrival of Brodie is an immediate improvement on their secondary ruck stocks.
How this combination of Grundy and Gawn working inside the same 22 will continue to see plenty of conjecture in the offseason. Still, the Demons can feel that, at least immediately, they’ll be in a stronger position without Jackson due to the arrival of Brodie.
Melbourne will need to adjust their list strategy in the medium-long term plans. The club made it no secret that Jackson was the protegee to Max Gawn. The intent was that Luke would just be starting to hit his when Gawn’s peak was gone. It’s now back to the drawing board for the club. They’ve been well compensated with draft picks, and given the club’s recent draft hits, fans should be confident that they’ll be OK long-term. However, it’s now ‘hope’ in a system/process rather than any specific player.
Fantasy Summary
Given the changes we’ve seen this off-season, I cannot see how anyone can enter 2023 with confidence that a ‘set & forget’ strategy is the right approach. Let me break that statement down. I believe you can only pursue that strategy if only the top two premiums in that line are clear and supreme. By clear, I mean little to no disagreement about who the best options are. By supreme, there is a significant scoring gap between the top two and the rest of the pack. If there isn’t a clear and supreme pair, I find it very hard to advocate for ‘set and forget.’
The arrival of Luke Jackson to Fremantle shouldn’t impact his scoring trend. At Melbourne, he was the secondary ruck, and with Sean Darcy on the Dockers side, I don’t see him moving out of the lead ruck role.
Jackson’s scoring is moving upwards of ten points per game over the past few years. He’ll be priced at 71 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, and 84 in SuperCoach, and will retain his RUC/FWD DPP. Unless he moves into the ruck as his lead role, I can’t see his scoring ceiling moving much deeper than a further 10 points per game on his current output.
The only way I see Jackson being of serious relevance in salary cap formats is if one of these two things eventuates. For example, a medium-long-term injury to Sean Darcy forces Luke Jackson to move into the #1 ruck spot. Or the forward division is so skinny of options we are forced into picking players at his range.
