Tom Green has become a fantasy football powerhouse in just a few short seasons. We look at the GWS Giants midfielder’s standout 2023 season, his exceptional scoring ability and pivotal role in the midfield. Green is positioned to elevate his scoring to new heights in 2024, but does the early bye create chaos for coaches considering? Let’s discuss that in the 50 most relevant.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

In the bustling and competitive environment of the GWS Giants’ midfield, Tom Green has emerged not just as a participant but as the leading figure at the metaphorical midfield feast. Despite the crowded field of talented midfielders within the Giants, Green’s 2023 performance solidified his position as a premier ball-winner, leading the AFL in contested possessions and disposals per game, showcasing his dominance in the heart of the action.

His presence was also felt across various facets of the game, ranking in the top ten for score involvements, handballs, and effective disposals, reflecting his comprehensive impact on the field.

Green’s balanced game is underscored by his average of 32 possessions per game, striking an almost perfect balance between contested (15) and uncontested (17) possessions. His contribution extended beyond mere ball possession, with averages of 7 score involvements, three marks, five tackles, five inside 50s, and two rebound 50s per game, highlighting his versatility and all-around game influence.

In fantasy football, Green’s 2023 season was nothing short of exceptional. In AFLFantasy, he averaged 110.6 points, with 15 scores over 100, including peaks of 136, 141, and a career-high 170, with only two scores falling below 80. This performance placed him 9th overall for averages and 7th among midfielders, outscoring notable players like Rory Laird, Andrew Brayshaw, and Nick Daicos.

Similarly, in SuperCoach, Green maintained an average of 111.2, with 12 scores reaching or exceeding the century mark and seven above 120, showcasing his ability to deliver high scores consistently. Despite suffering a hamstring injury that sidelined him for a month, Green’s season was largely unblemished by injury concerns, concluding the year on a high note with averages of 122 in AFLFantasy and 129.75 in SuperCoach over the last month.

Tom Green’s 2023 season cements his status as a key figure in the GWS Giants’ midfield and as a valuable asset in fantasy football leagues, offering coaches reliability, high-scoring potential, and the assurance of a player at the peak of his powers. His performance invites fantasy coaches to consider him a vital component of their midfield selections, promising consistency and the potential for match-winning scores.

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MY TAKE

Selecting Tom Green as a starting option in your fantasy side is not just a testament to his established scoring prowess; it’s an investment in the potential for his scoring ceiling to ascend even further. Particularly in SuperCoach, where scoring intricately reflects the quality of a player’s contributions, Green’s room for improvement shines through an aspect of his game that doesn’t necessarily hinge on increasing his already substantial disposal count.

Last year, Green’s statistical profile included being ranked 5th in the AFL for Clangers and 6th for turnovers per game, highlighting areas ripe for refinement. His disposal efficiency, at 67% in 2023, showed a slight dip from the 70% he maintained in 2022 and 2021. This suggests that even marginal improvements in reducing errors and enhancing the precision of his disposals could significantly bolster his SuperCoach scoring, potentially elevating him to the elite status of a midfielder averaging around 120 points per game.

Starting with Tom in the early weeks of the fantasy football season carries the appeal of capitalizing on his potential to post high-scoring, ceiling games, positioning him as a viable captaincy option. However, a closer examination of his historical performance against early fixtures reveals a more nuanced picture that fantasy coaches must consider.

The initial rounds see the GWS Giants facing off against Collingwood, North Melbourne, and West Coast—matchups that, while seemingly favourable on paper, have not historically yielded fruitful scores for Green. Specifically, in encounters with Collingwood last year, including a high-stakes preliminary final and a regular season round nine clash, Green did not manage to reach the century mark in either game. This trend suggests a potential challenge in leveraging him as a captaincy option in these initial rounds, given the Magpies’ ability to limit his scoring impact.

The matchups against North Melbourne and West Coast further complicate the early-season outlook for Green. Despite what would appear advantageous fixtures, Green’s performance last year against these teams indicates potential scoring volatility.

His second-lowest score of the season came against North Melbourne, with Green posting scores in the 70s across formats. At the same time, his performance against West Coast yielded a 90 in AFLFantasy and a more respectable 106 in SuperCoach. These results underscore the importance of considering the theoretical favorability of matchups and acknowledging Green’s actual historical output against these opponents.

The early bye for the GWS Giants introduces a strategic problem for fantasy coaches contemplating starting Tom Green. This bye week, although only requiring the best 18 scoring players on the field, inherently increases the risk profile of fantasy lineups, as it’s likely a lower-scoring cash cow will need to cover for the absence of a premium scorer like Green. This scenario can dilute the overall scoring potential for the week, given the unpredictability and typically lower scores of rookie players compared to established premiums.

However, viewing this from the opposite perspective offers a compelling argument for starting with Green. By securing Green from the outset, coaches can lock in a midfielder they believe to be among the elite, bypassing the challenge of finding a way to trade into him later. The early rounds often see the most volatility among on-field cash cows, a period colloquially known as ‘rookie roulette.’ Opting to bench Green during the bye and relying on a cash cow who may score upwards of 80 points could, in totality over rounds 1-3, result in a net positive outcome, offsetting the disadvantage of his bye-week absence.

Starting with Green and trading him out during the bye presents itself as another option. While technically viable, this approach has its drawbacks. Planning for an early trade, especially involving a high-calibre player like Green, can be restrictive and may not be the most efficient use of trades, a precious resource throughout the season. Instead, embracing Green’s early contributions might be more advantageous, accepting the potential scoring shortfall during the bye week. This shortfall, potentially ranging from 50 to 80 points, can be mitigated through strategic rookie selection or astute captaincy choices, allowing for recovery in overall scoring across the initial rounds.

Ultimately, the decision to start with Tom Green hinges on a coach’s confidence in his scoring potential and their strategic flexibility to navigate the implications of the early bye. Embracing Green from the start and absorbing the bye week’s impact could be a strategic move that pays dividends, provided coaches are adept at managing the rest of their lineup to compensate for his temporary absence.

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DRAFT DECISION

Tom Green’s esteemed position as an M1 in AFLFantasy and his potential to serve as either an M1 or M2 in SuperCoach underscore his fantasy football value. His consistent high-scoring output, underscored by an impressive ability to gather disposals and contribute significantly to the game, makes him a coveted choice for fantasy coaches aiming to solidify their midfield. Although drafting strategies might cause a slight variation in his SuperCoach ranking, Green’s overall appeal is undeniable.

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