It’s here! For DreamTeam assistant coach subscribers, you can now start picking your initial squad. So on day one of the picker opening, we asked MJ to select his team. As a Patreon, he’s given you exclusive first viewing. Enjoy!
Defenders
If you’ve been a Patreon or follower of the Coaches Panel for some years, then you’d be familiar with my thought process with premiums. First, get the player you believe is the best performer in the starting squad for the season. In the backline, I think that’s Jake Lloyd and Lachie Whitfield. At worst, they might drift to a low 90’s performer. But at best, they can excel weekly past 105 and have proven they are VC/C candidates. Caleb Daniel has some slight value to him, but in reality, he’s shown for the better part of three seasons that he’s a 90+ defender. Of all premiums on my side, he’s the one most likely to be changed early. But for a structure hold, it works fine. Wayne Milera is a stupid good value. The fact he’s cheaper than Jason Horne-Francis means there is zero risk even with a poor injury history. Josh Sinn, I believe, will see tons of footy for Port this season. He’s laser fast, makes good decisions with the ball, and adds a fresh dynamic to the Power. Gould/Worrell/Wilmont should all be pressing for games early, but they’re just placeholders at this stage in the preseason.
Midfielders
With your starting midfield premiums, you need a minimum of two captaincy options for any given matchup. With Jack Steele and Jackson Macrae, I’ve ticked that box. Both are dynamic scoring options and have been among the best games to hundreds conversation rate over the past few seasons. Zach Merrett keeps getting it done. Year on year, he’s shown he’s a 110 performing midfielder. Barring a preseason scoring explosion, he might slide a little under the radar. But in reality, Zach is one of the safest picks. I know Andrew Brayshaw ‘broke out’ to the premium territory last year, but I think he gets into the elite scoring category this year. I believe he’ll match it with the Merrett/Laird/Mills types and be a 110 averaging performer. Lachie Neale is valuable, I don’t think he rebounds back to his ‘BCV’ scores of 2020, but he’s a safe 100-105 guy based on his history. At worst, he’ll drift into becoming a reliable M8 by the close of the season. At the same time, Matt Rowell could be anything. Here are the three scenarios, and all can work. Best Case – It becomes a premo and a season-long hold. Middle Ground – I hold for a period of games can make a quick upgrade via him. Worst Case – His scoring fails, but I move him to the stepping stone that is firing. The reality is there’s not a bad scenario. I’ll start with five rookies in the midfield with this structure. It’ll come as no surprise that Nick Daicos and Josh Ward feature. Both are developing teams that’ll give opportunity, plus they have a scorinåg pedigree as a junior. All of Mead/Goater/Clark is just the placeholders but should push for games in 2022.
Rucks
This line is possibly the most on-field vanilla side, but in reality, the value of Braydon Preuss at R2 is immense. When available, he’s the top ruck option at GWS and will be one of the most relevant players for DT. Brodie Grundy is the premium ruckman I trust the most for scoring, health and role consistency, so he’ll lead my ruck division into battle. While Sam Hayes could see plenty of games with the departure of Peter Ladhams.
Forwards
Before Leon Cameron started playing around with player positions, Tim Taranto averaged 110 last season. Plain and simple, if he gets back to his heavy midfield role, he’d have been in the mix as a top tier midfielder. The fact he’s FWD eligible makes him near impossible to pass up. The same is true for Mitch Duncan. He’s one of the most reliable 95-105 scoring players every match. Yes, he’s got some increasing injury concerns, but those will be mitigated by having him in the starting squad and with what I expect to be a high ownership percentage. It feels like a luxury to have Josh Dunkley at F3. But, in reality, he could well be the top forward in the game. Pre-injury last season, he showed his scoring power. If you believe he’s got a safe role (which I do), then I can’t see a world where he won’t dominate the year. Stephen Coniglio would be on the radar as a MID only, but as a DPP MID/FWD, he’s skyrocketed up my relevance rankings. Historically he’s got the ability to be a 100+averaqging player, and with him being one of the most popular players to own, I can’t see any risk to starting with him. My final four is Luke Pedlar, who should see a significant uptick in games and midfield minutes for the developing Crows. Elijah Hollands should be the most owned player in the game. He’s a basement price and DPP cash cow that’ll play round one. Lock and load. Both Smith and Maginness are just placeholders until the cash cows become clean in Feb/March.
So that’s the team, line by line. It’ll almost certainly change, but hopefully, it gives you the ideas of how I plan to attack the season early on. Here’s what it looks like in full.
It’s here! For SuperCoach gold subscribers, you can now start picking your initial squad. So on day one of the picker opening, we asked MJ to select his team. As a Patreon, he’s given you exclusive first viewing. Enjoy!
DEFENDERS
I’m lighter on premium options in this line, and when you see the rest of the team, you’ll understand why I’ve structured this way. I believe Jake Lloyd and Lachie Whitfield are the best two premium defenders to start. Both are consistently strong scorers and rarely let coaches down when on the field. Wayne Milera is insane value. He’s got multiple seasons over averaging in the high 70’s, and as long as he gets through the pre-season, he’s an easy pick. From there, I hit the cash cows quick. Josh Sinn should be a popular pick and adds speed to the pear. Josh Worrell, I think, gets the first crack at Jake Kelly’s old spot in the Crows backline. At the same time, it wouldn’t be pre-season without Will Gould in your squad. Both Wilmont and Skinner fill needs in their sides best 22 but aren’t walk upon selections. I’ve gone an extra midfield premium heavy in the structure. So if required, I can easily reposition one of them into the backline to beef this area up if more MID cows/value appears.
MIDFIELD
Are you looking for where I’ve spent the salary cap? Well, this is the line, but I’ve also picked four genuine weekly captain candidates. The ‘double Jack’ of Jack Steele and Jackson Macrae helps me start with two of the most reliable and rounded scorers in the game. Against an opponent, you feel confident they can push a 120+ score. I expect both to be in the top five midfielders of the year. Clayton Oliver is coming off two consecutive seasons, averaging over 120. I see little reason that changes into 2022. He’ll get the captaincy armband if the other two fail me. Andrew Brayshaw is potentially unique, but I expect big things from him. Don’t worry, we’ll talk plenty about him in the preseason. Lachie Neale is the no brainer pick that if fit, everyone will have. Neale is my fourth captaincy option in the midfield. Remember, before last year, he was safe as houses for the better part of two years. His teammate Jarrod Berry averaged over 95 just twelve months ago, and like Neale with an uninterrupted preseason, he should be on the radar of all coaches. It’ll come as no surprise to see Jason Horne-Francis and Nick Daicos in starting squads. Both have excellent job security. I’m less sold on the scoring potential of JHF with a crowded midfield, but at worst, I cash him out for a cheaper cow if required. On the bench are Ward, Hately and Wanganeen-Milera. All are under $200k and should get plenty of games.
RUCKS
This line is possibly the most on-field vanilla side, but in reality, the value of Braydon Preuss at R2 is immense. He’s the top ruck option at GWS when available, and with him being cheaper than JHF, you just can’t say no to him. Brodie Grundy is the premium ruckman I trust the most for scoring, health and role consistency, so he’ll lead my ruck division into battle. While Sam Hayes could see plenty of games with the departure of Peter Ladhams.
FORWARD
We’ve been given some forward gifts from Champion Data, and I have zero intent to reject them. Josh Dunkley pre shoulder injury was one of the best scoring players in the game. I believe the role he held that produced his scoring is normative. Therefore I cannot resist starting him. Mitch Duncan comes with many injury history worries, but with players like these, you start them or pass entirely. Between 2017-2020 his lowest seasonal average was 103. He averaged 99 last year, which included an injury impacted 10. I’m going to bank every game I can get out of him and hope that it’s a full 22. FYI, in 2019-2020 he missed just one game, so maybe the injury history might be getting overplayed. If Tim Taranto were a MID only, I’d not consider him, but as a FWD, it’s a whole new story. He’s one of the safest 95-100 MID/FWD’s I’ve seen in recent years. Speaking of safe, starting with Stephen Coniglio is near immovable. He’s got multiple seasons of averaging 100+ at this price point, and his likely ownership numbers mean you can select with confidence. Rounding out the side is Charlie Curnow. I’m not sold on starting him. But he’s a value option if fit. My last forward spot goes to Elijah Hollands. Anytime you get a basement price player who’s DPP and in a team best 22, you pick them. The bench rounds out with a DPP Crow pair who’ll see many games in 2022.
So that’s the team, line by line. It’ll almost certainly change, but hopefully, it gives you the ideas of how I plan to attack the season early on. Here’s what it looks like in full.
The AFL Fixture for the 2022 season is out. Although all 23 rounds have been announced in matchups, it’s only the opening nine rounds that we know dates and times. Here are some of the big takeaways from the fixture and what it means for SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam players.
Upon first glance, the fixture might feel like an irrelevant piece of the puzzle of the preseason planning, but that’s a faulty thought process. The fixture is a core factor in squad selection both in starting teams and upgrades. Fixture alongside price and position become three of the fundamental elements to be across in planning your 2022 season. If you haven’t seen the fixture you can see it in full here.
The early fixture games still maintain a high value, with all formats confirming a rolling lockout in use. While only the opening nine rounds of the year are known, it still provides coaches with some premium layers to consider. The first five rounds of the season all feature Thursday night games, while the opening round boasts the only Wednesday evening fixture to date.
One of the big fixture winners is the Western Bulldogs, and for fantasy coaches, it’s worth noting that they play six of their first nine matches on or before the Friday evening games. Meaning players like Jackson Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli, Josh Dunkley, plus new MID/FWD DPP Adam Treloar are legitimate VC only early in most rounds. The following best teams with games worth considering completed by Friday night are Port Adelaide (three) and Collingwood (three). Carlton plays back-to-back Thursday night games to open the season but is relegated to Saturday & Sunday games for the coming seven weeks.
Equally as important as the first games of the round are those who play the final matchup. For instance, clubs with a high volume of games can hold some value with a DNP option to enable loopholes. West Coast Eagles hold down three of these matchups. While Fremantle and Carlton both have two each.
The dreaded MBR’s are back for the 2022 season. Like last year they’ll feature again in rounds 12, 13 and 14. Each round we’ll be down six teams. Across the formats, a ‘best 18’ scoring and increased trades per week that has been awarded over the years will continue.
Here’s a visual look at the breakdown of which clubs will be missing.
ROUND 12
The early bye round could catch coaches with some early pain if they aren’t paying attention to team structure. The forward line could be a source of pain, with Dustin Martin, Tim Taranto, Zak Butters and Stephen Coniglio likely to be popular names this season. The ruck line shouldn’t be too impacted with Scott Lycett, Toby Nankervis and RowanMarshall likely all draft relevant. Braydon Press should be on every coach’s radar, and while not a disaster to have him rested this week, ideally, he’d have been someone to upgrade mid or pre byes.
Teams and players on the first bye round are often targeted for upgrades during the MBR’s, and thankfully for coaches entering into round 13, we’ll have some strong options. Beyond the forwards already mentioned, you could also consider Jake Stringer, Shai Bolton, Toby Greene and even Connor Rozee. Lachie Whitfield could be the top defender by seasons end and is always someone to consider. Jordan Ridley, Jayden Short, Isaac Cumming and possibly even Zac Williams are all no scrubs and would be options to consider here.
Ultimate the midfield premiums will gain the most attention. If you don’t start with Sam Walsh, you’ll certainly consider him an upgrade at some stage of the season. Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish lead the Essendon midfield brigade of options. Evergreen Travis Boak is always an option at the right price, while Josh Kelly reminded fantasy owners of his pedigree averaging north of 110 from round 7 onwards last year. Lastly, Jack Steele has put two monster seasons together, and if you opt against him in your starting squad, this might be your last chance to snag him. If he ends 2022 the way he ended 2021, you’ll want to be on the right side of owning him.
ROUND 13
One line you won’t have too many issues with options missing is the rucks. Beyond Reilly O’Brien and Nic Naitanui, there’s nothing to worry about. I know the value of Jarrod Witts might tempt some, but rucks coming off the back on an ACL scare me, so unless he’s stupid value in classic, I’ll want no part of owning him.
Defensively we’ve got some names missing, but it’s not a full-blown disaster. Jake Lloyd, Caleb Daniel, Bailey Dale, Tom Stewart, Jordan Dawson and potentially Shannon Hurn will be unavailable. However, all can be top 10 defenders by the close of next year, so keep a keen eye on your balance. The forwards of Josh Dunkley, Mitch Duncan and Adam Treloar are the clear leading candidates to be top of the forward class for the season. If they’ve had good seasons by this point, you’ve either already got them, or they are too expensive and unattainable. If they’ve had poor seasons, then maybe they’ll be worth a low buy option in the hope of a late-season form turnaround.
Jackson Macrae is the clear standout premium midfielder, but future Suns skipper Touk Miller is right behind him. Suppose they replicate recent form but will be worthy of consideration here. However, this MBR batch of midfielders is crucial beyond just these two. We’ve got some strong candidates who can all go 110+ and will likely be unique. That’s uber helpful as potential upgrade targets when needing to create some squad separation in the back half of the season. Callum Mills, Luke Parker, Andrew Gaff, Tim Kelly, Rory Laird, Patrick Dangerfield and Cam Guthrie all know how to deliver the fantasy tons.
Matt Rowell probably deserves his own space here. Is he just a stepping stone midfielder? Does he breakout and deliver on his clear fantasy potential? Do you start him and upgrade at this point? Is he strong enough to hold as an M8 for the year? It’ll be fascinating what he delivers in 2022.
Over the years, it’s been near impossible to get a premium ruck line sorted without having a disaster round to navigate. Unfortunately, that trend looks set to continue with Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn, and Sean Darcy all unavailable this week. So you’ll either be looking to a Reilly O’Brien, Rowan Marshall or your cash cow r3 to get you through with a scoring option in this line, or you’re copping a donut from the rucks.
It’ll be of no surprise, but when you see the club listed, we’ve got some of the best fantasy midfielders missing from this weekend of games. Tom Mitchell, Clayton Oliver, Lachie Neale, Christian Petracca, Jarryd Lyons, Andy Brayshaw, Taylor Adams and even smokie Jy Simpkin could all be top tier midfielders in 2022. Thankfully for salary cap coaches, we’ve got arguably the three best job security cash cow midfielders all in this MBR. Josh Ward, Jason Horne-Francis and Nick Daicos should all get plenty of game time next year. While you might be able to sell them off at a higher price point in the season, holding one or two of them until this weekend could be a valuable strategy.
This week of MBR’s shouldn’t create too many hassles for forward lines. Even with Chad Wingard, Steele Sidebottom, and Tarryn Thomas as MID/FWD’s, I don’t see their ownership being super high pre bye. If anything, they are run home targets to trade into.
If anything, it might be the backline that feels a little stretched for some coaches. Aaron Hall, Christian Salem, Jack Crisp, Luke Ryan, Harris Andrews, Jack Ziebell, Daniel Rich, Steven May, and James Sicily have all been top-tier defenders.
Champion data have announced the new positions for SuperCoach & AFLFantasy for 2022. As usual, we’ve got some significant positional gains and disappearances. MJ’s back to take you through the changes.
Two of the more prominent big name changes into the backlines for 2022 is North Melbourne pair Aaron Hall and Jack Ziebell. If you owned either player at points last season, you had some fantastic scoring success. Both were value picks, but now coaches looking to start them will be paying up to get them. Of the two, Hall is the most intriguing for owners as I believe he can be the top scoring defender this year. As a rookie, Essendon captain Dyson Heppell moves back to the positional status he started with. He is a defender this season. He spent last season as the Bombers quarterback out of defence and should prove a potential top averaging defender after coming off a 95 in AFLFantasy and 99 in SuperCoach.
Bombers teammate Nick Hind moves from the forward line and picks up defensive status. So too does Jarman Impey and Bailey Dale. Both were midprice revelations for owners last year. In addition, popular cash cows from our starting squad the previous season in Braeden Campbell has also moved down back.
Some of the more exciting gains are Sydney’s Justin McInerney and Carlton’s George Hewett. Both are MID/DEF and should see significant time through the midfield next year. While they might not deliver enough to become premium performers, both should make valuable cash in classic formats while in drafts provide strong returns compared to likely ranking. Speaking of value, it was only two seasons ago Brad Hill averaged 88 in AFLFantasy and 84 in SuperCoach. He’s picked up DEF staus and should have between 10-15 points per game of value inbuilt.
We do have significant losses in this line, and we’ll talk about them shortly. But we have retained plenty of talent. Daniel Rich, Tom Stewart, Caleb Daniel, Jordan Dawson, Christian Salem, Jake Lloyd and Isaac Cumming will still be defenders. In addition, we’ve held onto Jack Crisp and Lachie Whitfield, but both will be MID/DEF.
The midfield seldom has any relevant midfield gains. Instead, it’s about those who’ve lost a positional status in another portion of the ground. By name, Patrick Dangerfield is the most significant DPP loss. The previous MID/FWD now has sole midfield status. I was pretty surprised by this. Without visibility of the data, just on the ‘eye test’, he looked sure to have spent significant time up forward to retain his status. Oh well, maybe an in-season DPP gain for AFLFantasy and UltimateFooty coaches.
The most significant loss from the forwards based purely on 2021 data was Dayne Zorko. Last years number one ranked forward by points is now available as a midfielder only. This means that he drops from a likely second-round pick to potential a fifth or sixth round for draft formats. Isaac Smith, Tom Phillips and late season bolter Harry Schoenberg have all lost FWD status and can now be selected solely in the midfield
The backline moving out and into the midfield are both Callum Mills and Rory Laird. Both were superb last year. Both averaged over 110 across the formats. These are significant averages, and based on scoring, they are more than good enough to be considered in this new line. Of additional benefit would be that they’ll likely be drastically shortened in ownership. It might be a brave starting squad selection, but both have shown they can match it with the top 10 midfielders.
From a cash cow perspective, likely popular duo Jason Hore-Francis and Nick Daicos are midfield only options. However, it’s unlikely to drastically hurt either’s ownership percentage as both looks to be highly owned in 2022.
Usually, this line doesn’t provide us with many gains, and in 2022 that trend continues. The matter of the position from this line is who has gained or lost DPP to afford coaches further flexibility. A potentially significant change to preseason plans to coaches is regarding Rowan Marshall. Many (including me) felt he’d down enough to retain RUC/FWD status, but that isn’t the case. He’s a pure ruck. If you played AFLFantasy last year, you’d recall Sean Darcy gained RUC/FWD status, but nobody should be shocked that he’s just a RUCK this year.
From a DPP perspective, some of the more potential viable options to consider with RUC/FWD status are Peter Ladhams, Ben McEvoy and Tim English. All might be draft and daily fantasy relevant options but will be picked in those formats every week.
I’ve already discussed the losses we’ve had to our forward line. And while they are significant, they are more than replaced with some of the gains we’ve picked up. Arguably the biggest is new MID/FWD Geelong star Mitch Duncan. Last year he averaged 99 in SuperCoach, his lowest since 2016. While in AFLFantasy, he averaged 100, which features a single digit score of eight in round 14. He’s a genuine candidate for the top scoring forward candidate.
Duncan isn’t alone as a new forward pedigree of being the top player in the line.GWS Giants inside bull Tim Taranto scored twelve SuperCoach tons last year and 15 in AFLFantasy. While he might be used to cover the absence early in the year of Toby Greene inside forward 50, I’d be shocked not to see him end the year as a top 10 forward. His captain Stephen Coniglio has had multiple seasons averaging over 100 across all formats. If he can get through the preseason unhindered, he’ll be a sensational pick, given he’ll be priced at 60 even before the likely discount hits. Only another injury interrupted season could stop ‘Cogs’ from being one of the most valuable picks this year.
The other big-name gain is Adam Treloar. Injuries robbed him from getting his 8th straight season of averaging over 100. His MID/FWD status is that he spent the final seven games of the season (including finals) playing off the half-forward line. Should he get back into the primary Bulldogs midfield rotation, then he’ll be challenging to ignore.
His teammate Josh Dunkley retained MID/FWD DPP, as did Jordan De Goey, Chad Wingard, Shai Bolton, Tarryn Thomas and Steele Sidebottom. All of whom can be top 10 ranked forwards after the year. In addition, Kangaroos Tom Powell and Will Phillips are both MID/FWD for keeper league players, while fellow 2020 draftee and Adelaide Crow Luke Pedlar are another new MID/FWD.
With the AFL draft completed the fantasy, community starts to turn it’s attention to the coming season. For AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & DreamTeam players, it’s the final step before the 2022 positions get revealed from Champion Data. Before the official announcement drops in the next few days, I thought I’d share some possible 2022 Fantasy Footy position changes.
In 2021 Jack Ziebell was one of the breakout midprice forwards who became one of the season’s best buys. This addition of the Kangaroo skipper into our backlines should come as no surprise. He, along with his teammate listed below, dominated the defensive 50 possessions for North Melbourne. So the only question fantasy coaches will be pondering is will he be worth investing in at peak price in 2022?
Aaron Hall
Like his teammate above, Aaron Hall became one of those core ingredients to success in 2021. If you didn’t have Hall in your forward stocks, chances are you didn’t have a strong season. With his football revival coming as a running half-back, giving hall defensive status will be one of the easiest decisions Champion Data will ever make. But, more importantly, is can he follow the season up? Regardless, Hall looks like a fascinating player to discuss during the preseason.
Nick Hind
The trend of 2021 forward listed players getting defensive status continues with Nick Hind. Numerous superlatives were used last season to the Bombers list management team for identifying him as a bargain price replacement for Adam Saad. Equally, coaches who jumped on Hind early had strong starts to the season. The ‘run and carry’ defender
Jarman Impey
In all honesty, it could’ve been CNTRL-C, CNTRL V from above when it comes to the reason why Jarman Impey will pick up defensive status. Like the names above, he had a clearly defined role change last year. With the absence of James Sicily, he became the primary ball user of the Hawks D50 before his season ending injury. He’s not salary cap format relevant next year, but for drafts, he’ll be someone worth keeping an eye on in the middle of the draft.
Braeden Campbell
Heading into his second season, it’s rare a player becomes fantasy relevant. Where talking about players like Nat Fyfe, Jackson Macrae and Clayton Oliver that became genuine premiums in year #2, for Braeden Campbell, he’ll move from his MID/FWD status of 2021 to a likely pure defender. Last year, he played as a small-medium rebounding defender and should easily allocate status for Champion Data.
Bailey Dale
Luke Beveridge has done it again. Two seasons ago, he reinvented Caleb Daniel as the ‘quarterback defender for the Dogs. Now, Bailey Dale has transitioned from a dynamic forward that struggled to make the best 22 to becoming a dominant rebounding defender. Daniel & Dale’s skills complete each other perfectly and continue to cause headaches for opposition forward coaches. Bailey’s a genuine top 10 defender candidate moving into next season.
Chayce Jones
Of all the players referenced so far, Chayce Jones probably has minor fantasy relevance. However, the positional allocation to defensive status is a warranted one. The former first-round pick has reinvented himself as a hard-nosed pressure defender. In addition to his high endurance capacity and team-first mindset, Jones is also a solid user of the ball by foot. If he can jag some kick in responsibilities off Wayne Milera or Brodie Smith, he might pop a little as a late-round draft pick up.
Others who should gain: James Stewart, Jy Farrar, Miles Bergman, Tom Atkins, Jayden Hunt & Jayden Laverde
The breakout was complete for Callum Mills. He transitioned beautifully into a dyanmic cenntre bounce midfielder. No chance he retain his defensive status.
Rory Laird
Played pure midfield, lock it up. Nothing more to say! Sadly we lose this long term defensive staple to the midfield.
James Harmes
The Melbourne Demon midfield stopper. James Harmes enjoyed his season of fantasy relevance in the sun. But as a midfielder only, it’s back to drafts and daily fantasy.
Jack Crisp
I’m still 50/50 on this, but I think there is sufficient data that Jack Crisp needs to be a midfielder only in 2022. He attended a high volume of centre bounces, and despite increasing his rebound 50 counts, it was coming from a defensive 50 function. Instead, it was him using his endurance weapon to push into the backline become the rebounder. This was seen often when Brayden Maynard was forced to play a highly lockdown focussed d50 role.
Kyle Langford
Last season Essendon’s midfield stocks were smashed with injuries. As a result, Kyle Langford thrived (amongst others) with the additional midfield responsibility. As a result, he should be a MID only option. Sadly, it means beyond draft and daily fantasy formats, he’s not a viable option.
Harry Schoenberg
Maybe a controversial one, and I know for my keeper leagues, I hope I’m wrong. But Harry Schoenberg was electric for the Crows as a midfielder last year. A quick scroll back through the centre bounce attendances over the season shows that ‘Shonnie’ became a core member of the Adelaide midfield. When he wasn’t playing at centre bounce, he was playing as a wingman. So again, I hope I’m wrong, but I think he’s a pure midfielder in 2022.
By name alone, the probable MID/FWD status of Nat Fyfe next season would make many coaches super keen on selecting him in 2022. And depending on the format, you play he could well be one of the more relevant additions for the year. The Dockers skipper spent an ever increasing amount of time forward as his young teammates started to take over the responsibility of the midfield. While not the most damaging set shot at goal, Fyfe is an imposing forward presence and is as challenging to match up against inside forward 50 as at centre stoppage. The departure of Adam Cerra to Cartlon might even see him move back more into the midfield. However, the biggest obstacle to selecting him is getting him back to full fitness after another injury setback in the offseason. We’ll discuss that more in the preseason.
Jack Billings
Over the past few seasons, Jack Billings has gone from draft relevant forward to top 10 forward across formats to an irrelevant midfield only wingman. Despite it not being Jack’s best season, he did start to get back towards showing off his damaging highlights. Billings is an excellent field kick, and when playing across half-forward, the combination of solid footy IQ and skill makes him a very good player. As a potential MID/FWD next year, he might not regain top 10 status among forwards, but he’ll undoubtedly skyrocket up draft format selection boards if he does.
Lachie Hunter
Selecting Bulldogs players always feels like a risk. Luke Beveridge is long known for his ability to chop and change a player’s role weekly and potentially every quarter. In 2021 it was Lachie Hunter’s turn to experience the positional roundabout. For the better part of the year, he played at centre bounces off the half-forward flank and then pushed up onto his preferred wing role. If the proposed MID/FWD status lands and the Bulldogs settle him back onto the wing, he looms as a locked 90+ forward across the formats.
Tim Taranto
Ask any Tim Taranto owner over the final six games. Where did he play to end the season? Freaking forward! And didn’t his scoring show it. Undoubtedly, the percentage of field position time to him gaining or missing will be razor-thin. I think due to such a heavy forward role late, plus some in-season game management, he’s done just enough. But it’ll be tight.
Sam Berry
The rebuilding Crows got plenty of games into Sam Berry in 2021. A staple of his game was his defensive workrate and solid defensive pressure on the opposition ball carrier. As a junior, Berry was a strongly contested midfielder, but with the Crows, he’s developing his game with minimal midfield time and substantial forward presence. It will result in him being a forward in this coming season.
Tim English
For the Western Bulldogs, they changed up the ruck and forward structures this year. Instead of Tim English leading the ruck division, he became the second fiddle to Stefan Marti, Jordan Sweet and former teammate Lewis Young. English should still retain ruck status but also get forward status to go with it.
Ben McEvoy
Don’t forget, this article isn’t about the ‘most relevant positional changes.’ We’ll get to that once the positions get announced. Instead, this is about forecasting changes. For example, Ben McEvoy moved into the #2 ruck position behind Jon Ceglar, and his height and marking presence was maximised inside the Hawks forward 50. As a result, he should retain DPP but will move from DEF/RUC last year into an RUC/FWD.
Josh Daicos
Two seasons ago, Josh Daicos was looming as one of the breakout forward candidates in fantasy footy. However, due to multiple injuries and frequent positional changes, Josh has found himself off plenty of fantasy footy radars. In the games he did play last year, he put his mercurial surname into good use inside forward 50. Regaining forward status should bring him back into view for coaches.
Stephen Coniglio
We might not have enough data on this for champion data to do it. But Stephen Coniglio spent alot of time inside forward 50 option at centre bounces. Historically, champion data that the starting position at centre bounce ‘is a consideration in the allocations. Should he gain forward status, a combination of this and a low starting price due to injury might make ‘Cogs’ one of the most highly owned players in the game.
Tom Powell
Last season he was a strong early season cash cow. For those who play AFLFantasy, you’ll know that he was awarded MID/FWD DPP midseason after spending a large portion of the year playing off the half-forward line. As a result, I believe he’s a prime candidate to commence the 2022 fantasy year with the same MID/FWD status. I do suspect Tom Powell will increase his midfield minutes next year. But with Jason Horne-Francis landing at the club in the draft, I expect him to increase the competition for midfield rotations at North Melbourne.
During last preseason many in the fantasy community were unsure of whether to jump on due to his role volatility in the Dogs side. Pre-injury, Josh Dunkley was the form player, post-injury he was barely playable. Given his heavy Forward time after the return from surgery, I believe Josh Dunkley will retain MID/FWD DPP. As a result, this coming season will be once again filled with the Dunkley dilemma discussions.
Rowan Marshall
With Paddy Ryder missing multiple games last year that Rowan Marshall played, it wouldn’t shock me if he lost DPP. But I think in the totality of the season, Marshall spent enough time starting and then playing inside forward 50 to retain his R/F DPP. So if Ryder misses large chunks of this coming season, too, it could be Marshall that pushes towards that #1 ranking forward by seasons end. His upside is enormous.
Patrick Dangerfield
Pretty simple this one. Patrick Dangerfield played as a centre bounce midfielder and played as a damaging isolated forward. You know what to do champion data. When it comes to allocating positions, you can leave his status unchanged.
Lachie Whitfield
When Lachie Whitfield is on the ground, he’s a damaging top tier outside player in the game. For the Giants, they allowed him to stay deployed across the half-back and push up the wings. He averaged four rebound 50’s a game and should maintain his defensive status. There might even be a chance he’s allocated a MID/DEF and provide us coaches with some early squad versatility.
Dustin Martin
You’ll be hearing alot about Dusty this preseason. The triple Norm Smith medalist plans to be back with a vengeance in 2022. This could make him a bargain buy among the fantasy footy formats, given I believe he’s a lock to retain MID/FWD DPP.
The Blues were one of the busiest movers in the trade period. But does the addition of Lewis Young have much of a fantasy footy impact?
Career High SuperCoach Score: 93 vs GWS (2019)
Career High SuperCoach Average: 65.5 (2018)
Career High AFLFantasy Score: 77 vs Gold Coast (2017)
Career High AFLFantasy Average: 52.2 (2019)
Impact on New Club
Watching Lewis Young play, I can’t help but think that he’s destined to be the ‘almost’ player at whatever AFL club he’s listed. There are moments where his effort and competitive endeavour are to be admired, but then others when he lets himself and his teammates down with poor decision making.
As a Carlton player, I don’t see him cracking into the best 22. In part because I’m not confident where they believe he fits. The forward ‘tall’ stocks should be filled with Harry McKay, Mitch McGovern and Charlie Curnow. Defensively, Jacob Weitering is the general with a supporting cast of talls, including Lachie Plowman, Caleb Marchbank, Tom Williamson, Luke Parks, and even Brodie Kemp.
Even though Lewis played through the ruck this year, I doubt Michael Voss will want to role him through there. The club has been apparent in the selection that Tom De Koning is the futureof their ruck division. The backup is Marc Pittonet, who won’t set the world on fire, but is still a significant improvement on what Lewis offers.
As versatile as Young is, I don’t see him being a best 22 option, and thus poor form or injuries to others will be his only way of AFL games in 2022 and beyond.
Impact on Old Club
The injury woes to ruckman Stefan Martin created a vacancy in the Bulldogs tall stocks. Despite being groomed as an intercepting defender, Lewis Young was deployed as the lead ruckman.
In his seven games this year, he tried valiantly, but in reality, he’s got neither the physical presence nor the experience to compete against the big rucks of the AFL. With Young moving on, the Bulldogs signed Jordan Sweet to a contract extension. Additionally, they’ve virtually replaced Young with the free agency pick up of Tim O’Brien.
The Bulldogs will pick up the best ‘tall’ player in the draft pool for the second year running, with Sam Darcy joining as a father/son. As a result of this and the free agency acquisitions, I see little impact on the club, even if Stefan Martin was injured again.
Fantasy Summary
The last and honestly only time that Lewis Young was fantasy relevant was back in 2017. There as a basement priced cash cow, he played the final seven games for the year. The money he freed up became valuable for coaches attempting to complete their salary cap sides in that season.
Since then, it’s been slim pickings for Young, and given his scoring history to date, he’s only ever been a daily fantasy or deep draft league option. Moving forward to his new club at Carlton, I don’t see a world where he becomes fantasy relevant. That’s even with a raft of injuries to their talls. So it’s a pass from me.
It’s here, MJ and Kane reveal who they believe are the marquee players to own in a keeper league. Here’s why they are the best of the best!
Sam Walsh
KANE
What a player Sam Walsh has been just three years into his career. He’s yet to miss a game and already posted averages of 92, 97 and a brilliant 109. Amazingly Walsh is 13th for total points across the last three years which is mental when you consider he’s just 21 years of age. Clearly, Walsh’s advantage over Steele and Macrae is his age. He’s five and six years younger than them respectively. To get what is likely a 110 average across the next 10 years is just insane and something I couldn’t turn down. His score build is phenomenally well-rounded. He averaged 30 disposals, six marks, 4.5 tackles and 0.5 goals. There’s nothing glaring missing from his game so it’s just going to be a slight increase across the board that takes him to new levels. Don’t overthink it, just pick Walsh and enjoy the spoils for the next decade.
MJ
In the next two seasons will Sam Walsh score the most points? Possibly. But in a keeper league, your not just thinking about the next two seasons. Rather, you should be thinking about the decade ahead. During this edition of the top 50 keepers, you’ve heard Kane & I discuss that it’s often between seasons six to eight for when a player hits their scoring peak. The phenomenal thing about Walsh is over his first three seasons he’s already a top 15 player for most points. The upside for the next 10 seasons is potentially immeasurable. At 21 years of age, he has the most upside in terms of years available, through in his perfect durability over his career and it’s hard to overlook him here. Sam Walsh is one of the best runners in the competition already. He wins the contested and uncontested footy, he applies defensive pressure through tackles and is supreme in his game day preparation. I believe Walsh at one is a clear no brainer, and a case could be made that he deserves to be in a tier all on his own.
Jack Steele
KANE
It was a phenomenal season from Jack Steele that has me convinced that this guy will be the highest scoring player across the next three years and could even reset the record books. In 2021 Steele averaged 121 points across all 22 games but it’s the second half of his season that has me excited. In his final 11 games Steele averaged a monster 134 points thanks to 32 touches, 5.5 marks, 9.4 tackles and 0.5 goals a game. Let’s revisit the record books for a moment. In 2014 Tom Rockliff averaged 134.7 points across 18 games with Brisbane, the highest by any player in fantasy history. In 2018 Tom Mitchell scored the most points in a season by averaging 129.1 across all 22 games. If there’s a player in the league that could challenge these two records it’s Jack Steele. His ball winning exploded in the back half of the year, with six of his 10 best ball winning performances coming in the last 10 games of the season. Looking even deeper, his three best ball winning games came in the last five games of the year, which were 37, 36 and 36 disposals respectively. I can definitely see Steele taking his career-high for disposals into the 40s so if he can do that a couple times in a season he’s a genuine shot at both records. If you’re only worried about the short to medium term Jack Steele is your man and should be your first pick. The long term looks great too for a guy that is about to turn 26 and is the clear star midfielder in his side.
MJ
I’ve long been a fan of Jack Steele. Even before his breakout 2020 season, Steele was a consistent 90’s averaging player. His score build was always heavily reliant on his tackle count, but if he became more of a ball winner he’d elevate himself to a top performing fantasy prospect. We saw this happen in 2020 when he returned 5 tons, 6 additional scores over 90 and just one score below 70. Remembering that ’80 was the new 100′ that’s an incredibly prolific scoring season factoring in the shorter quarters. He ended the season ranked fifth for total scoring and 10th by averages. His 2020 seasonal average of 90.9 is an adjusted average equivalent of 113. The question entering into 2021 was whether or not Steele had fully established himself as a fantasy performer, or if the shortened games suited his playing style. Jack answered these questions emphatically with an average of 121. It consisted of 19 tons, 11 of these were over 120, and nine were over 130 including 162 V Blues. As we discussed on the podcast he got better as the year went on including posting 12 consecutive tons to end the year. Arguably if he can maintain his back half scoring of 2021 for the entirety of a season he could rival the fantasy elite scoring of Tom Mitchell and Tom Rockliff. Along with this strong scoring capacity is his durability. Steele has missed just five games in five seasons as a Saint, but hasn’t missed in past two. When the 2022 season commences, he’ll be 26 years of age. That still leaves plenty more prime scoring seasons from this St Kilda star. Just between us, I think he’ll be the top scoring player next year and probably the year after too.
Jack Macrae
KANE
I’ve spoken at length on the podcast about the three year rolling window I use to evaluate players and Jack Macrae sits well clear on top of all three major metrics – durability, average and total points. The durability is perfect for Macrae. He’s played all 61 home and away games. Only 20 players have done that across the past three year stretch. His average of 115 across the past three years is No.1, and that’s on the back of three incredibly consistent seasons of 116, 113 and 116 seasonal averages. It’s no surprise then that Macrae is No.1 for total points. He’s scored 250 more points than Brodie Grundy (2nd), 1000 more points than Jack Crisp (16th) and 2000 more points than Jy Simpkin (50th). Those numbers are just insane. You can’t be more glowing of what Macrae has already achieved and I think we’ll see those 115 output continue for at least the next two seasons. With his neat kicking skills it’s easy to see him transition into a damaging half-forward in the later years of his career and continue to be a premium scorer going forward.
MJ
Over the past eight seasons, Jackson Macrae has barely put a foot wrong. Since 2014 he’s had seven seasonal averages over 104 including 122 and multiple over 115.
In addition to his scoring consistency, Macrae has missed just two games in the past five years. he hasn’t missed a match since July 22nd 2018. Jackson has just turned 27, and during the past 4 years, he’s averaged 115 or higher. I see nothing in the way he plays or Dogs use him to suggest his scoring dries up anytime soon. For the 2021 AFL season, he ranked first in the league for disposals, 4th for score involvements, 5th inside ’50s, 3rd for Frees for, 10th for meters gained and 12th tackles. This further highlights the scoring splits of Macrae and how near imp[ossible he is to stop. Despite having three scores of 145 or higher this year, the knock-on Macrae is a gradual dip in the conversion of his 100’s into big tons. But with the frequency he has hit and should keep hitting the triple figure mark, it’s a very small ‘knock’ at best.
It’s been a long time since the Crows have secured a high end talent at the trade table. So canthe late-season run of scoring from Jordan Dawson continue for Adelaide.
Career High SuperCoach Score: 158 vs Gold Coast (2021)
Career High SuperCoach Average: 101 (2021)
Career High AFLFantasy Score: 158 vs Gold Coast (2021)
Career High AFLFantasy Average: 88.8 (2021)
Impact on New Club
The loss of Joran Dawson on the Swans midfield mix is quite severe. His damaging left foot has become a staple part of the Sydney inside 50 movements. He ranks elite in the league for inside ’50s, score involvements and one-percenters. The Swans don’t lack depth, but replacing Dawson wasn’t part of their ideal plans.
I can see three potential replacements for his wing role. First, Justin McInerney. He showed plenty across the season, and while his weapons are not the same as Jordan, he provides some more speed around the midfield. Second, Second, Dylan Stephens could finally find his feet at AFL level by winning back this spot. As a junior Stephens showcased some skills that gave many recruiters confidence to contrast his game to Lachie Whitfield. Like Justin, he doesn’t have the same lethal boot, but he does have a high footy IQ. I think in 2022, one of these two are the likely replacements.
Longer term I think it’ll be Braeden Campbell. The first year player has already showcased his strong kicking ability. And was the clear top field kick from the 2020 draft crop. He’ll take time to develop, but the positional ‘seas’ have parted to Campbell to lock down a spot if he’s good enough in his second season.
Impact on Old Club
When taking a look at the Adelaide list build, it’s clear that they still have a few gaps. Ask any Crows fan over the previous 2 seasons as they’ll tell you how much the club has lacked for quality users of the ball delivering inside forward 50. The addition of Jordan Dawson should assist in resolving this. He along with Wayne Milera, Paul Seedsman and developing youngster Lachie Sholl should provide the Crows with the outside poise and skill they need.
Adelaide will want him centre forward and deliver the footy inside 50. It also wouldn’t shock me to see him start across half-forward at times and push higher up similarly to how the Giants used Lachie Whitfield from a few seasons ago.
Fantasy Summary
Going back multiple seasons fantasy output for Jordan Dawson is useless. However, he clearly broke out this year, and as a result, will be someone people consider him. As discussed already, Dawson played two key roles last year for the Swans, one as a wingman late in the season and across half-back early. The move to the wing occurred after the bye, and as you can see his scoring skyrocketed.
SuperCoach
AFLFantasy
Average
101
89
100’s
9
5
Sub 80 Scores
4
7
Pre-Bye Average (13 games)
92
80.8
Post-Bye Average (9 games)
114
100
Differential
+22
+20
Defender Rank (points)
5th
9th
I expect Dawson to retain defensive status (likely a MID/DEF), and if he’d stayed at Sydney, the decision to pick him might be more accessible. However, how does he gel into the Crows side? As a side note, Paul Seedsman averaged 95 across the formats, so there are fantasy points available on the Crows wings.
He’s a preseason watchlist for me. His preseason role & what defenders we have available to select will likely determine how relevant he is in salary cap formats of the game.
Sadly for Blues fans and keeper league coaches, Sam Petrevski-Seton couldn’t fulfil his potential at Carlton. So, could a change of clubs bring the spark back to his fantasy output?
Career High SuperCoach Score: 136 vs Western Bulldogs (2019)
Career High SuperCoach Average:81.6 (2019)
Career High AFLFantasy Score: 106 vs Western Bulldogs (2019)
Career High AFLFantasy Average: 77.7 (2019)
Impact on New Club
The Eagles have gone ‘all in’ on the now of their football list. At the same time, Geelong is widely regarded as the ‘old folks home’; the Eagles are not that far behind them, with the majority of their core into the back portion of their careers.Ever since the premiership of 2018, the Eagles have been relatively disappointing. However, one of the unheralded successes in that season was the defensive run and carry of Lewis Jetta.
Unfortunately, since his retirement, West Coast hasn’t replaced him, and the addition of Sam Petrevski-Seton could cover the list gap.Sam has said on numerous occasions that he’d like to play more as a half-forward that pushes into the midfield. However, I don’t see that role with a forward line filled with talls and the small role covered with Liam Ryan and Jamie Cripps.For ‘SPP’ to be a best 22 regular, he’ll need to be comfortable with a rebounding defensive role. Otherwise, he’ll need injuries to crack into the team.
Impact on Old Club
Beyond the public acknowledgement that selecting him in the early part of the draft is another bust for the Blues recruiting team. But in reality, there’s not much they’ll miss.The blues are stocked with solid running backs with Adam Saad and Zac Williams. The ‘X Factor’ and class midfield/forward role is filled with Jack Martin. And finally, with the addition of Adam Cerra into the midfield mix, there’s just no room for Sam Petrevski-Seton.
Fantasy Summary
Over Sam Petrevski-Seton’s career at Carlton, he’s been used positionally right across the board. As a result, his fantasy output has been quite the rollercoaster ride. In 2019 he had arguably his most regular season where he played as a high half-forward. That season he averaged 78 in AFLFantasy and 82 in SuperCoach.From 22 games, he had 14 scores of 80+ including an AFLFantasy ton. While in SuperCoach, he had just ten scores 80+ but did manage to convert five of those into triple digits.
With him heading to West Coast, a heavy kick/mark team, there is a world where SPP is fantasy relevant player, especially in the draft and daily fantasy formats of the season. It’s a late round pick at best, but he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on.
They are among some of the best fantasy players in the game. You should have no shocks from this point on in MJ and Kane’s keeper league rankings. The time is now for you to jump into reading who makes tier #2.
Clayton Oliver
KANE
Elite is the name of the tier and it’s fitting for Clayton Oliver. Durability: he hasn’t missed a game in the past five seasons. Scoring: averaged 100+ in his past five seasons. Including an adjusted 115 in 2020 and 109 in 2018 and 2021. Total points: Only Jack Macrae and Brodie Grundy have scored more total points across the last three years. Role: as pure a centre bounce midfielder you can get and now he’s able to roll forward too. His time on ground is up to 88% now as a result, which is extremely impressive for a midfielder and five percent higher than any of his previous seasons. Age: 24 years of age so has at least five years of prime ahead. Summary: bulletproof player who only missed out on tier 1 because he doesn’t seem to have 120+ heights on his horizon.
MJ
True story, I found it hard to not put Clayton Oliver in the top tier. He’s had five straight seasons of playing every game and averaged over 100 in all of these. Throw in the fact that he’s still just 24 years of age and we’ve got ourselves a potential hall of fame fantasy player. While he does lack the frequency of ceiling of others inside the top 10 ranks, he boasts a scoring basement that many would be jealous of. Oliver has had just four sub 80 scores in his past 61 games. Not a bad effort!
Last year he ranked 11th for total points, while he was second in 2020 and 10th in 2019. So for all the ‘lack of ceiling’ talk, he still has been one of the best keeper prospects lately. Has he reached the peak of his powers? Unlikely given his age. This means the already bulletproof Mr 105 could easily elevate himself further in the game again.
Zach Merrett
KANE
Yet again Zach Merrett showed why he’s one of the best fantasy players in the game in 2021. The Essendon midfielder played all 22 games and averaged 110 points, with 17 of his scores 100+. Despite only being 26 years old Merrett has already produced seven 90+ seasons, six 100+ seasons and four 110+ seasons, that’s just ridiculous for a player with another five premium years ahead of him. Across the past three seasons he ranks fourth for total points and in the past six seasons he’s missed just the two games, both of which were due to suspension. Outside of a Caleb Serong tag in Round 9 that kept him to 67 points, Merrett was able to work through the attention. With Darcy Parish’s rapid rise the tag didn’t seem to come Merrett’s way at all in the second half of the year, which is massive for his fantasy numbers going forward. Merrett is right in the prime of his career and with the Bombers seemingly on the verge of becoming a regular finals side and building towards a premiership there’s a lot going for Merrett.
MJ
Over the better part of six years, Zach Merrett has been among the best players to own in a keeper league. In this time his lowest seasonal average is 101, while he’s averaged over 110 in more than half of them. Just last season alone he scored 17 tons, 7 of them over 120 including 3 x 140+. When you add into the mix he’s missed only two games (both suspension) since the start of 2016 season and it paints a fairly strong picture. Having just turned 26 years of age Merrett, owners will have plenty of great scoring seasons especially with teammate Darcy Parish now seemingly more impacted by the tag. For the next four seasons I can see a world where he’s a top 10 scoring player each year. Additionally, as he ages into his 30’s I believe he’ll still be a strong scoring option and pick up DPP. His footy IQ and elite foot skills will make him a brilliant half back or half forward in the later career seasons.
Brodie Grundy
KANE
After spending the past three years as the consensus number one pick in a keeper league, Brodie Grundy finds himself outside of tier 1. But it’s far from doom and gloom for the Collingwood ruckman. Based on his lofty heights of 2018-2020 where he played every game and produced seasonal averages of 120, 122 and 114 respectively, 2021 was underwhelming. Grundy averaged 106 points and missed two games due to a neck injury. Let that settle in for a second, an underwhelming season was 106 across 20 games, most other players could only dream of numbers like that. Prior to his injury in Round 11 against Geelong, Grundy was averaging 115 points and had scores of 152 and 142 to his name. He returned from injury in Round 15 and averaged 101 points in his remaining 10 games, with his scoring frankly all over the shop. Three of his scores were sub 80, while his two best were a respectable 129 and 139. Grundy will turn 28 during next season and there’s still plenty in the tank. You’re already getting a discount with his injury impacted scores and the Pies having an extremely poor season as a side. I think the 120 days are gone but there’s a couple 110-115 seasons left. We all know the pain of consistently looking for a reliable ruckman so many will still be happy to take Grundy at the top of the draft and alleviate that concern.
MJ
Twelve months ago you could make a case that Brodie Grundy wasn’t just a top tier selection, but the obvious first selection. But has his slide down a tier had more to do with the rise of others? Arguably not. As good as the tier one guys are, I believe his scoring capacity still reigns in the same scoring realms we’ve seen previously. As discussed on the podcast, he was averaging 115 up til his freak injury mid-season. By mid-2022 Grundy will have turned 28, and while he might be among the elders of this tier he’s still got a lot to offer. I’m of the opinion his 120+ days might be gone, but the 110+ scores still look likely for the next few seasons. Don’t forget ruckmen often only hit their prime in the late ’20s. One of the hardest and most frustrating positions to secure in a keeper league is a long term ruckman. Ideally, you don’t want to spend multiple seasons and multiple draft picks on hoping to lock down this one positional line. The advantage of Grundy is he secures you not only the likely top scoring ruck for the coming few seasons, but additionally, he allows your drafting and list strategy to be freed up.
Tom Mitchell
KANE
Two and half years after his record breaking 2018 campaign that saw him record more fantasy points in a season than any other player (129 average across all 22 games), Tom Mitchell was back to his best in 2021. In his 11 games post bye Mitchell averaged 126 points, scored a ton in every game and went at a ridiculous 35 disposals, five marks, six tackles and also kicked seven goals in that time. Clearly the concern with Mitchell is his age. At 29 years of age you need to be thinking about how to win premiership in 2022 and 2023. That means taking guys that are ready made scorers right now. The positive with Mitchell if you’re not in contention by the trade deadline is that you can sell him to a contender and try and reset your list with some younger players. If you want instant success taking Mitchell early in the first round makes a lot of sense.
MJ
Let’s be honest, if you have a mid range first round draft pick, you’re eyeing off Tom Mitchell and with good reason too. Last year he ranked fifth for total points across the 2021 season and scored 19 tons. The additionally encouraging element is how ‘Titch’ ended the season as it started to emulate his career best seasons. Tom had a post-bye stretch of 11 games, with an average of 126 and the lowest score of 105. He starts the season at 28, meaning that coaches who draft him will be needed to capitalise on his peak scoring and be in keeper league premiership contention immediately. If not, then he’ll provide a high value trade asset if your side is falling beyond the finals. I can see two, maybe three more peak scoring seasons of Tom before the scoring decline hits.
Touk Miller
KANE
I don’t know what odds you would have got for Touk Miller to be the highest averaging player in fantasy in 2021 but you probably could have retired off the back of it. Not only did Miller average 122 points, but from Round 4-21 he averaged 129 and from Round 11-21 he went at 133. Those numbers stack up with some of the best players to ever grace a fantasy format. The question remains though, what can we expect going forward. For mine everything fell Miller’s way this year. Matt Rowell was severely limited due to injury, while Lachie Weller and Hugh Greenwood also missed time. With players returning from injury and more high-quality draftees emerging I think that eats away at Miller a bit. However, you can’t deny that Miller is one of the hardest working players in the AFL, both in the contest and on the outside, which makes him near impossible to stop. I see a regression but I still have him in the 105-115 range, which at 25 years of age is a fantastic return.
MJ
Whenever a player has a season like his 2021, keeper coaches have to ask themselves this question. Is this his new reality or a unicorn season? If you forecast correctly you pay for him at his correct point of value in a draft. If you get it wrong you risk either missing one of the next uber players or overpaying on someone. His 2021 season consisted of 17 scores of 100 or more including a massive 11 of them over 130. On his way to averaging 122 he had just one score beneath 80 all year. So what was the real cause of his growth? It came off the back of his elite endurance and high work rate. As a result, his scoring boost came in uncontested possessions and tackles. You can’t deny his season, but backing up 120 seasons, let alone 115 is rare. Thankfully at 25 times is on his side.
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