The fixture decides when your players score and when they hit a wall. So I pulled the 2027 draw apart and checked it against last year’s numbers, overall and by position. Here’s what matters.
The Soft Five | One change
I went in thinking Richmond, Port, Essendon, West Coast and GWS were the teams to target. The 2026 data mostly agreed.
Richmond gave up the most SuperCoach points in the league. Essendon were second in both formats. West Coast were third in SuperCoach.
GWS failed the test. Below average in both formats. They’re out. The Western Bulldogs are in. They conceded the most AFL Fantasy points of anyone, about 132 a game above average.
My tough five, Sydney, Fremantle, Brisbane, Hawthorn and Adelaide, held up perfectly. They were the five stingiest SuperCoach defences in the league. The soft five is Richmond, Essendon, West Coast, Port and the Dogs.
Position Matters | Soft for which line?
Overall numbers hide a lot. So I checked who leaks to which position.
- Rucks: West Coast, Geelong and Collingwood leak the most. St Kilda and Gold Coast shut them down.
- Mids: Essendon and Richmond leak the most. Freo and Collingwood shut them down.
- Defenders: The Dogs leak the most. Brisbane and Adelaide shut them down.
- Key forwards: Richmond and West Coast leak the most. So do Brisbane, believe it or not. Sydney shut them down.
Buy Windows | Bring them in
- Collingwood mids and key forwards: in by Round 6. Essendon, West Coast, the Dogs, North, Richmond and Port from Rounds 6 to 11. Five soft games in six weeks. Don’t start them, though. Brisbane, Freo and Sydney from Rounds 2 to 4 is a wall.
- North Melbourne mids: Round 1 starters. Carlton, Gold Coast, Essendon and Richmond from Rounds 2 to 5. One of the better midfield windows of the year using the 2026 data.
- Gold Coast Midfielders: Round 1 starters. They have the perfect start! The Eagles into Richmond and then North Melbourne. A potentially favourable matchup against GWS at round 4 too. Don’t stay on too long, they have the Crows and Hawks straight after in consecutive rounds.
- Fremantle key forwards: in after Round 15. Brisbane, Richmond, Port and West Coast from Rounds 16 to 19. The best positional window in the fixture. But don’t hold on too long, it gets tough again QUICK!
- St Kilda ruck: in for Round 21 Brisbane, West Coast and Collingwood to finish.
Sell Windows | Get out early
- Port Adelaide: sell before Round 8. A solid start, then Adelaide, Hawthorn and Brisbane in three straight weeks.
- North Melbourne defenders: out before Round 15. Adelaide, Carlton, Sydney and Brisbane in four straight.
- Richmond: out before Round 17. Freo, Sydney, Adelaide and Hawthorn heading into finals.
- Gold Coast: out before Round 18. Hawthorn, Sydney, Freo and Brisbane, and no soft run all year.
VC Early & Sunday Loophole
- Thursday and Friday nights: Sydney (9), Brisbane (8), Fremantle (8), Adelaide (7) and Hawthorn (7) lead Rounds 1 to 16. That’s the tough five exactly, so most early VC calls are against tough defences.
- The exception: the five Thursday or Friday games against the Dogs. Freo (Round 1), Collingwood (Round 8), Sydney (Round 11), Melbourne (Round 12) and Geelong (Round 14).
- Sunday cover: St Kilda (11) and Essendon (9) are your loophole safety nets. Maybe they give us a handy R3 option to target.
Over To You
Last season’s numbers aren’t this season’s. Things can change both for the better or worse, but for now, it gives us a small glimpse at some player targets to consider as part of our planning for the upcoming AFL Fantasy & SuperCoach season.
For example, the 2026 says Geelong give up ruck points big time, but with the trade arrival of Rowan Marshall I suspect that matchup not to prove as fruitful.
