Dive into the fantasy football world of Lachie Neale, the Brisbane Lions’ midfield maestro, as we unpack his fluctuating AFLFantasy and SuperCoach scores amidst team dynamics changes and an emerging youth bias for our teams in 2024.
WHY IS HE RELEVANT?
Lachie Neale, from the Brisbane Lions, is a skilled footballer and a master of clearances, making him one of the best in the game. His ability to win the ball in tight situations is second to none, and his knack for beating almost any player in the AFL to the punch underscores his exceptional talent.
Though some of his statistical records in previous seasons may have outshone 2023, his performance last year remained dominant. Leading the league in clearances per game and ranking in the top five for both centre and stoppage clearances, Neale also made his mark within the top 20 for contested possessions, handballs, and contested possessions.
In AFLFantasy, Neale had a solid average of 97, notching up 13 scores over 100, with three surpassing 120, including a season-high of 127. However, he also recorded six scores below 80, indicating some variability in his performance.
In contrast, his SuperCoach season was even more impressive. Neale averaged 110.3, with 15 scores over 100 and eight above 120, peaking at a season-high 176. This placed him 19th in terms of the highest average for the year, ranking higher than notable players like Connor Rozee, Andrew Brayshaw, and Tim Taranto.
The season prior for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored thirteen tons, four of them over 120, all of which were between 133 and 145. He had five additional scores of 90+ and only had his scoring dip below 80 in just three games. He ended the season ranked eighth for total points, and his average of 107 places him with the tenth-best average from 2022.
For SuperCoach, he scored a ton in 86% of matches last year. He registered a triple-digit score in 19 of his 22 games. Eleven tons were above 120, six over 130, and three monsters over 160 – a 164, 187 & his career-high 198. From the three games in which he failed to score a ton, he had just one below 80. Last year, he was ranked first for total points and third by averages. His 122.8 was one of four players who went over 120 last season.
Ever since joining Brisbane, Lachie Neale has established himself as one of the most reliable players in fantasy football, particularly in SuperCoach. His consistent ability to score over 100 points makes him a valuable asset for any fantasy team. His on-field prowess, particularly in clearances, and his fantasy scoring capacity, especially in SuperCoach, underscores his value as a top-tier player in the AFL and the fantasy football arena.
Embed from Getty ImagesMY TAKE
Lachie Neale’s scoring in 2023, particularly in AFLFantasy, showed greater volatility than in previous years. While the familiar challenge of the tag impacted his performance, changes in the Brisbane Lions’ midfield dynamics played a significant role, too. Adding players like Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft significantly changed the midfield composition.
The early absence of Will Ashcroft in 2024, as he recovers from an ACL injury, is set to alter the midfield dynamic again. Neale averaged 99.4 in AFLFantasy with Ashcroft in the team for 18 games, but his average dropped to 87.5 in the six games without Ashcroft – a notable change of 11.9 points per game. This drop was also evident in SuperCoach, with averages of 113.3 with Ashcroft and 97.7 without him. Although this is based on a small sample size, it’s important to consider.
The tag risk for Neale is still a significant factor, as seen in multiple games last year where he was notably limited, like the round 20 clash against the Gold Coast Suns, scoring only 60 in AFLFantasy and 87 in SuperCoach. This was also evident in the AFL finals series against Port Adelaide, where he failed to score over 75 in any format. As the key midfielder in Brisbane’s lineup, Neale will likely attract the tag in 2024 against certain opponents.
Despite a regression in fantasy scoring last year compared to 2022 and other seasons, Neale still can score big. In the eight rounds from 9-17, he averaged 111.5 in AFLFantasy and 125.5 in SuperCoach. Owning him during this period would have been highly beneficial for fantasy managers.
The Lions’ participation in the opening round means they will miss one match in the first six rounds. While it’s a benefit to see them play a real match before the lockout, the downside is their early bye in round 2, arguably the worst due to both the Lions and Carlton missing out. Despite this, the Lions’ early fixture is favourable for inside midfielders. Another concern is the round 12 bye and a potential encounter with the league’s most restrictive tagger, Finn Maginness, in round 11. Are you okay with having a premium miss two matchups before some have missed a game? I’m not a huge fan.
Given the potential for the tag and the Lions not playing in round 2, it’s challenging to advocate for starting with Neale in your fantasy team. However, his historical scoring pedigree remains excellent. Neale monitors closely as an in-season upgrade target, where his price and scoring potential could align to make him a valuable addition to fantasy rosters.
Embed from Getty ImagesDRAFT DECISION
In AFLFantasy drafts, Lachie Neale is likely to be picked as an M3, primarily due to his enduring name recognition and reputation. Despite the volatility in his recent performances, many fantasy managers still value his proven track record and potential for high scoring. His name currency in the fantasy community holds significant weight, influencing his draft position.
In SuperCoach, Neale’s legacy and achievements position him more as an M2. However, there’s a growing trend where fantasy coaches might prioritize other lines or opt for emerging talent, potentially pushing Neale to an M3 spot in some drafts. This shift is indicative of a broader trend in the way people are viewing other lines.
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