In this deep dive into Touk Miller’s fantasy football prospects for the upcoming season, we explore the impact of the Gold Coast Suns’ new playing style under coach Damien Hardwick and how it might influence Miller’s scoring potential. With a focus on Miller’s past performance, the Suns’ early fixtures, and strategic considerations for navigating early byes, we unravel whether Miller is a must-have for your fantasy team or a player to watch as the season unfolds.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Touk Miller is known for his exceptional skills and pivotal role in the team. As a heart and soul player for the Suns, Miller brings to the table elite endurance, a key attribute that enhances his performance on the field. His ability to sustain high-intensity efforts throughout the game makes him an invaluable asset to the Suns in gameplay and leadership.

In terms of his fantasy football performance, Miller’s 2023 season was notable, though it marked a dip compared to his previous years. In AFLFantasy, he averaged 96.1 points, which included seven scores over 100 (“tons”), with one exceeding 120. However, he also had two scores under 80, one of which was notably impacted by an injury. This injury, a lateral meniscus tear in his left knee, occurred in a game against the Roos in round 6, leading to a three-month absence from the field.

In SuperCoach, Miller’s average was slightly higher at 97.6, featuring eight tons, with two scores over 120 and one below 80, again affected by the injury game against the Roos. The 2023 season was Miller’s lowest-performing fantasy season since his breakout, contrasting with his performance from 2020 to 2022, where he consistently averaged triple figures. His peak was in 2021, where he recorded a personal best of over 120 points across both formats.

During the 2022 season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 109.8, comprising fifteen tons and nine scores over 120. They include 132, 133, 134, 140 & 147. Alongside this are three additional scores of 90+, and only once last season did he drop his scoring below 80. As a result, he ended the season with the seventh-best average in the entire format. And speaking of ending the season over the final ten games, he went at an average of 112.

For SuperCoach, he scored eighteen tons across the season. Eleven of those were above 120, and nine were above 130. His five highest scores were 153, 153, 157, 160 & 167. He had two additional scores over 90, and his scoring fell below 98 in just two matches. He ended the year with a ten-game average of 123.6 and with the fourth-highest average.

Looking ahead to 2024, Miller’s price point suggests a significant upside compared to his historical performance. His proven ability to deliver top-tier scoring output and his price make him a potentially valuable pick for fantasy managers. Miller’s resilience and capacity to bounce back from setbacks, coupled with his history of high scoring, indicate that he could be a strong contender for a rebound in fantasy scoring, offering great value for those looking for a player with the potential to outperform their price point significantly.

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MY TAKE

As we evaluate Touk Miller’s viability as a fantasy football player for your team, it’s important to contextualize his past performances and consider the evolving dynamics at the Gold Coast Suns. The standout years of 2021 and 2022, where Miller showed exceptional scoring ability, need to be viewed in light of the current changes at the club. From a game style to coach to even the players available has changed.

For example, Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson were in their AFL infancy and nowhere near the staple part of the midfield that they are now. No longer is Touk required to put the midfield unit on his back for a season. Now, he can play his part in a highly skilled and experienced midfield.

With a new coach and system under Damien Hardwick, the Suns are expected to adopt a playing style akin to the Richmond Tigers’ approach during their successful 2017-2022 period. This style emphasizes a ‘surge’ game plan, focusing on keeping the ball moving and minimizing stoppages, which could impact the scoring opportunities for midfielders like Miller who scores well from stoppages through ball winning and tackles.

There’s a common perception that teams coached by Hardwick don’t yield high fantasy scores. While this is partly true, it’s not a blanket rule. For instance, in 2017, Dustin Martin averaged 113 in AFLFantasy and 119 in SuperCoach under this system, although his scores did dip in the following years.

Another Richmond player, Dion Prestia, showed that the system isn’t necessarily a barrier to scoring well, but his injury prevented him from becoming a consistently high scorer across formats. Tim Taranto’s performance in the ten games under Hardwick in 2023 also supports this, averaging 119 in AFLFantasy and 115 in SuperCoach.

However, it’s important to note that not all midfielders in Hardwick’s system will score multi-tons consistently. The role played by each midfielder in this system can vary significantly. A case in point is Trent Cotchin, who often sacrificed his game for the team’s success.

There are parallels between Cotchin and Miller regarding leadership and playing style, raising the question of whether Miller might adopt a similar sacrificial role in the Suns’ midfield. This is something to watch closely in the preseason commentary from the club.

The Gold Coast Suns’ fixture in the opening round against Richmond offers a unique opportunity for fantasy managers. This matchup will provide valuable insights into the Suns’ new system and structure under coach Damien Hardwick before the round one lockout. This “free look” is crucial for assessing how Touk Miller fits into the Suns’ midfield and how the team’s playing style might affect his scoring potential.

Following the opening round, the Suns will face Adelaide and Western Bulldogs before entering an early bye in round three alongside GWS Giants. This early bye presents a strategic consideration for fantasy team structure.

Coaches need to balance their teams across all lines, ensuring they have the right mix of players to navigate through these early byes while maximizing scoring during the best 18 rounds. With popular players like Sam Walsh, Kiddy Coleman, and Zac Williams from Carlton and Brisbane also missing the week before the Suns’ bye, team balance becomes even more critical.

The preseason period is crucial for watching the Suns closely. While it seems unlikely that Miller’s scoring will fall below his high 90s price point, there’s still a question of whether he can return to his 120+ scoring form. This uncertainty makes Miller a key player to monitor.

Touk Miller should be on every fantasy coaches watchlist. Key areas to focus on include the Suns’ game style under Hardwick, the makeup of their midfield, and how Miller’s scores and roles develop from the opening round. Additionally, you should consider how other teams structure their squads to handle the early bye rounds.

This analysis will inform whether starting with Miller is a wise choice or if he should be considered as a potential inclusion as the season progresses. The decision will hinge on a balanced evaluation of Miller’s role in the Suns’ system, his performance in the preseason, and the overall team structure strategy to navigate the bye rounds.

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DRAFT DECISION

In the upcoming fantasy football drafts, Touk Miller is a name that carries considerable weight, especially considering his stellar 2021 season, where he averaged over 120 points. Given this impressive history and his established reputation, it’s reasonable to expect Miller to be highly sought after in drafts, likely going off the board as an M2 (second midfielder) in many leagues. His standout performance in 2021, where he showcased top-tier scoring potential, is a significant factor that will likely influence many drafters to leap for his name early.

However, some considerations might make Miller more ideally suited for an M3 (third midfielder) position in fantasy teams. One such factor is the uncertainty surrounding the midfield mix and playing style of the Gold Coast Suns. Changes in team dynamics, strategy, and Miller’s specific role within the midfield can impact his scoring potential. These unknowns add a layer of risk to selecting him as an M2, where expectations for consistently high performance are typically greater.

Drafting Miller as an M3 would allow fantasy coaches to capitalize on his potential upside while mitigating some risks associated with the Suns’ evolving midfield scenario. However, given Miller’s past performances and name recognition, opting for this strategy might mean missing out on him in many leagues. As other coaches may be willing to take him earlier as an M2, based on his proven ability to deliver high scores, Miller is likely to be picked before reaching the M3 draft rounds.

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