Keeper Leagues

Keeper League Ranks | Tier Four | Patreon Exclusive
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We start to enter into the top 20 players of the keeper rankings. Here’s MJ and Kane’s take on the players in tier four.

Marcus Bontempelli

KANEWe’ve classified tier four as dependable and Marcus Bontempelli demonstrates that in every part of his fantasy  game. 
Firstly, he’s always available. In the past six seasons he’s played every game in five of them and the one season he didn’t in 2018, he missed just three games.
His scoring is ultra-consistent. His lowest score for the season was 75 and he produced tons in 16 games, including eight 120+. 
There’s also some role security now. The Bulldogs have strengthened their key position stocks with Aaron Naughton, Tim English, Josh Bruce, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Josh Schache and soon to be father-son Sam Darcy. These additions should allow Bont to play bulk midfield minutes and rest forward, which is the perfect mix. 
This makes Bont near-bulletproof as a fantasy option. He’ll likely be a 105-110 midfielder for the next three to five years and will likely finish his career with forward status. A genuine superstar of the AFL and fantasy landscape. 
MJ
During the 2020 season in AFLFantasy, Marcus Bontempelli posted 3 tons, 2 of these were over 120 in a season high 145 against the Crows. Additionally, he posted eight more scores over 80. In fact, across the whole season, he had just two scores below 80 all year. Don’t forget that 80 was the 100 of 2020.  He finished the season on fire as one of the most prolific scorers. He averaged 99 (adjusted average 124) from round 10 to the season’s end.
I highlight his previous year as it reminds us that Bont didn’t just have a strong premium season in 2021. He’s now constantly doing it. This year he averaged 107, scored sixteen tons with half of these triple figure scores over 120. That’s a more than adequate return, given some of the fantasy community believe he boasts no scoring ceiling. 
At 26 years of age at the start of next season, you could build a case for Bont being deemed one of the all time great Bulldog players ever. 
In 4-5 years, he’ll likely regain MID/FWD status as he wraps up his career. But until then, he’ll be a pure midfielder and should dominate games consistently. 

Josh Kelly

KANEWe all know the scoring power of Josh Kelly in the past five seasons he’s averaged between 103 and 115 points. 
Clearly the knock on Kelly is his availability but there’s signs to suggest that might be turning around. The troubling years that saw fantasy coaches lose faith in his body were 2018 and 2019. Across those two years he could only muster 29 games but in the previous two seasons he’s played 35 of a possible 39 and two of them he missed were due to a Shane Mumford knee to the head.
Typically Josh Kelly’s role in the Giants side has remained consistent, as CBA midfielder or plays stints on the wing. However, to start the 2021 we saw him deployed as a half-forward and this severely impacted his scoring. In the first six games Kelly averaged 86 points in this role with a high of 91. Thankfully for coaches he was moved back into his CBA heavy role and averaged 111 points in his final 15 games of the season. 
At 26 years of age Kelly has plenty of quality seasons ahead of him. While his body still warrants some concern it’s not as much as two years ago. The Giants still don’t seem satisfied with their midfield mix which could see some inconsistent scoring for Kelly but overall he just gets the job done year in year out and has the ceiling of a top 5 player in the game. 
MJOne of the most bizarre moves of the season came when for the opening six rounds of the season GWS played Josh Kelly as a high half forward. 
While his scoring wasn’t poor, it lacked his historical consistent scoring. However, once the class of Lachie Whitfield returned the Giants from round seven onwards Kelly returned back into his customary role
From this point on he averaged 111, it featured 12 tons in this stretch of games.  This scoring mirrors the trend of his recent history. Since 2017 he;s averaged 112, 108, 115, 105 BCV) and this years 103.  26 at start of season
Scoring ability has never been a concern, injuries have. But is that now a thing of the past? He missed just the one game this season, and that was only due to the condensed AFL fixture and a 5 day turn around. The giants confirmed that had it been another 24 hours more and he would’ve played. 
Josh Kelly does have an element of risk, both in an extended injury history and a growing trend that is seeing Leon Cameron happy to move almost any player magnet position around. 
Amidst the risk, coaches can offset part of that with future draft picks and load up further on the midfield. Finally, there aren’t that many player who have multiple seasons of proven years averaging 110+, Josh Kelly has that. And at 26, he’s still got a few more in him yet. 

Lachie Neale

KANELachie Neale is the exact type of guy you want in a keeper league. Outside of 2021 which saw him suffer multiple in-game injuries and miss seven games, Neale had missed just two games in his previous seven home and away seasons. That’s the type of durability you can only dream of from your elite players and Neale’s scoring certainly is elite. 
In his three seasons at Brisbane he has played 54 home and away games and in that time has scored 32 tons. It’s particularly impressive when you note that he has demonstrated a ceiling of 140+ scores. 
While Neale is certainly in the back half of his career and will turn 29 in the 2022 season there doesn’t seem to be a dramatic fall coming. He’s still one of the most polished players in traffic and covers the ground beautifully. I don’t see why he can’t keep scoring into his mid 30s like Travis Boak, such is his professionalism and dedication to his craft. 
MJLachie Neale is certainly on the older scale of a keeper league, but he still has so much to offer his owner.
At 28, he’s not exactly falling off the cliff either. So much of this past season’s performance can be put down to multiple injury concerns both in season and during the preseason.In his first season as a Lion he averaged 104, while much has been made of his Brownlow season where he averaged an adjusted 122, or in reality a 98. 
Last year everything went wrong in his body and yet he still found a way to play 15 games and average a 95. What should be encouraging in his form towards the back end of the season as he started to regain full health and fitness. 
He scored a 120 & 110 in the final two home and away games of the year. While in finals he posted a 140 and a 99. 
He’s not on the young side of his career, but in reality what are you paying for? Neale is Mr 105 for the next few seasons. Unlike 12 months ago, you’re paying for what he is over the totality of his career, and not having to form out a first round pick after the 122.  

Darcy Parish

KANEWhat a season 2021 was for Darcy Parish. A string of injuries to the Bombers midfield unit opened up a regular spot for him and he exploded. 
From Round 6 to 16 he averaged 127 across those 10 games and reeled off scores of 160, 150, 144, 143 and 131. That’s a consistency of ceiling that only few players in the league can match. 
The downside came after that stretch as opponents began to send ‘taggers’ his way. I hesitate to say taggers as it was Harry Schoenberg, Lachie Ash and Jay Rantall who kept him to scores of 68, 69 and 61 respectively. Clearly taggers were able to reduce Parish’s output but it was also the first time he’s ever reached such attention so you’d think he’d be better equipped to deal with it going forward.
I think the piece of information that makes Parish a difficult player to evaluate is that we haven’t seen him perform with a full strength Essendon midfield (Dylan Shiel, Andy McGrath and Jye Caldwell all missed large chunks of the year). From the eye-test though I loved what Parish did and see him scoring triple figures for the next five years. For me it’s on the lower end of the 100 as opposed to nearing 110+ but the potential is there and I’m sure one coach in a draft will be keen to chase that upside and I can understand why. 
MJOver the opening five weeks of the season, he averaged 86, and his sole ton of the year to date was 117. However, from Anzac Day against the Magpies that he was fully released to play as a midfielder. So from round six onwards, here’s the stat line for Parish.
From the final 17 games of the season, he scored 11 tons, 7 of them over 120 and 2 over the monster mark of 150. He averaged 111.7 and put together a hot streak of 7 consecutive hundreds between round 6-12.
Like anything, you’ve always got to look at the narrative behind the numbers. Firstly, what caused the role change? Simple! A long-term injury to Dylan Shiel was after an almost season-ending injury to Jye Caldwell. So if injury created the opportunity, what happened upon their return?Caldwell didn’t play again in the home and away season. But Shiel did in round 19. So in the 15 games, Parish played without Dylan, he averaged 117.7. However, when Shiel did play (7 games), he averaged 79.1. That’s a differential of 38.6. More specifically, over the final five games, when both played, Dylan averaged a mere 84.4.To be clear, I don’t see a world with him moving out of the midfield role. Instead, my concern is scoring like that, which impacts his scoring ceiling

Andrew Brayshaw

KANEAfter breaking out in his third season in 2020 Andrew Brayshaw continued his rise in 2021 elevating his fantasy output to an elite level. 
Brayshaw averaged 104 points a game on the back of 28 disposals, five marks and five tackles. MJ and I have spoken at nauseam over the years about score builds and Brayshaw is as well-rounded as you can get for a midfielder. The advantage of scoring in different ways is it increases your floor. 
Brayshaw only dipped below 80 on three occasions in 2021 and they were games when he was tagged (63 vs Carlton/Ed Curnow, 54 vs Hawthorn/James Worpel and 64 vs Brisbane/Jarrod Berry). 
On the other of the spectrum his ceiling reached new heights. Brayshaw produced five scores 120+ including a monster 156 against Richmond and a 137 against Essendon. 
To secure a 22 year old who has already demonstrated an elite scoring season is about as good as it gets in a keeper league and that’s before you factor in his character and leadership skills that will see him stay in this midfield role for the next 10 years.
MJAndrew Brayshaw has fully emerged as a genuine long term midfield premium.
After flying out of the gate with back to back tons, Andrew quickly experienced a tag for the first time in his AFL career. He delivered a 63 & 54 against the Blues and then the Hawks. It wouldn’t be the only time he received tight attention, but when he was given freedom he delivered big time.
Over the totality of 2021 he scored 13 tons, including a career high 156. He also posted an additional three scores between 90-99. Over the final 12 games of the year he dropped his scoring below 92 in just one game. 
So does he have any scoring growth in him? Absolutely, both with the growth of his already evidenced ceiling, but also if he can lift those tagged score up 10-15 points.

If he can do this, as he begins his fifth AFL season he looms as one of the more safe premiums to elevate himself to averaging 110+. 

Jarryd Lyons

KANEIt won’t be as long a ride as other players in the 50 but it could be extremely rewarding. Jarryd Lyons has been one of the best midfielders in fantasy across the past two and half seasons since he secured a midfield spot at Brisbane. 
2021 was an insane season from Lyons. Not only did he average an absurd 117 points but he played every game and delivered 124 points in his 10 games post bye. It’s no surprise that Lyons’ floor is high and so is his ceiling. His lowest score of the year was 84 and only six times did he score below 100. His highest score for the year was 161 and on eight occasions he scored more than 130 points. That’s just outrageous. 
The knock with Lyons is his age. Halfway through next year he’ll turn the dreaded 30 but like Neale he’s showing no signs of falling off a cliff. While I don’t expect him to replicate his 2021 numbers I can see an average of 110 points across the next two seasons. Coupled this with the fact that he’s a solid forward, we could get him as a forward for the final years of his career with some midfield stints. 
If you grab Lyons you need to be playing for the now so let your draft strategy reflect that and take on those ready made players even if they only have a few years left. 
MJA great strategy in keeper leagues is to target younger talent. However, sometimes coaches can go ‘too far’ and as a result be uncompetitive for multiple seasons.  Kane and I have said this a few times throughout the podcasts, but a premiership in year one or two is still a premiership.
Over the past few seasons Jarryd Lyons has proven to be among one of the most consistent midfield premiums in the game. And by drafting him in your keeper, your mindset does need to be closer towards the premiership window for ‘now’ rather than in ‘2-3 seasons.’
I don’t buy into the narrative that Lyons falls off the cliff when Lachie Neale returns to form. Last year’s scoring of both players is a prime example of this. 
Lyons scoring splits from last year aree a thing of beauty. Just over 42% of his points came via kicks, 22% from tackles, 20% from handballs and 12% from tackles. With splits like this, he’s very difficult to slow his scoring rate and with players like Dayne Zorko and Lachie Neale still scoring well, he’ll continue to face zero tagging pressure from opposition midfielders. 

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Five | Patreon Exclusive
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Read Time:18 Minute, 9 Second

Kane and MJ continue on their ranking of the keeper leagues. This tier has nearly 1/5 of the entire list in this tier. Check out who we have and why

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Taylor Adams

KANEOh, Taylor Adams, where do we start? Let’s go with the positives first, such is my nature. 
Simply put, the guy scores when he plays a full game. In the final nine games of 2021 he averaged 108 points and delivered seven tons. In 2017 he played every game and averaged 115 points and in 2020 he played all 17 games in the shortened format and delivered an adjusted average of 114. Those are uber numbers for any fantasy player.
The negative is his availability. Outside of 2017 and 2020 where he didn’t miss a game, Adams other games tallies since 2016 are 14, 19, 10 and 14 respectively. That’s way too much missed time and exactly why he isn’t in the higher tiers. You just can’t guarantee he’ll be as available for 85% of the season. 
Adams scoring power will always warrant a high pick and can certainly yield high returns but you’d want to support him with some durable premiums and a deep bench to not leave yourself exposed in the midfield. 
MJHe has the scoring power of a top two or three tier player, but he’s got the career injury concerns that mean picking Taylor Adams too high in a new keeper could be catastrophic. 
Since debuting TayTay has just two seasons where he’s played every match possible. Of the other 8 seasons, he’s missed anywhere from 3 to 12 games per year. 
The thing that you have to love about Adams is his relentless ability to score well. Since 2015 his seasonal averages hasn’t dropped below 90. 
Last year he averaged 100, but his final 10 games were fire. He scored 8 tons, with four of them over 115. At 28 years old he’s still worth the draft capital in this tier. At best he’ll give you 3-4 years of a certain 100 average. 
At worst, well it’s injury affected, but my encouragement if picking him or any player with a poor injury history is to support this draft pick with another pick. Select an extra midfielder, create security for yourself as history says you’ll need the cover multiple times. 
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Ollie Wines

KANEWhat a season 2021 was for Ollie Wines. A Brownlow Medal and a career-best fantasy year has him in the top 50 keeper prospects for the first time since 2016 for mine. 
After seven solid years of averaging between 90-100, Wines exploded to average 112 points in 2021 while playing every home and away game for the first time since 2018.
It’s no surprise with an 112 average that we saw both Wines’ floor and ceiling rise this year. His lowest score was 70 points but in 20 games he scored more than 90 points and 15 of those were triple figures. 
His ceiling was on full display in the second half of the season. Pre-bye he averaged 106 points but post-bye he averaged 118 which featured his three highest scores of the year – 154, 151 and 140. 
I’d never seen Wines display the running power he demonstrated in 2021 so I think we have to declare that he’s a different player to those previous years. However, I can’t see him recreating his numbers of this year going forward. For me he’s a 100-107 option averager and an absolute rock in your midfield for another three to four years.  
MJFor years Ollie Wines has been a good, but not great keeper option. From 2014-2020 he’d consistently averaged between 91-100 and provided a level of reliability for his owners.
In 2021 the reigning Brownlow Medalist found another gear. He averaged career high possession numbers (32), up to five per game from his previous best year. In addition to this, his uncontested and mark count were personal bests. In short. Ollie developed an outside part to his game, where he no longer become an ‘inside bull’ only, but a rounded midfielder. 
It’s no surprise he averaged 112, score 15 tons and dropped his scoring beneath 85 just once. 
At 26, we’ve still got 5-6 years of peak Wines performances. But will they be close to his Brownlow year or the previous 5 seasons? For me, I believe it’s somewhere between the two. 
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Caleb Daniel

KANECaleb Daniel and Jayden Short I’m going to couple together because from a fantasy perspective they deliver basically the exact same thing. 
25 years of age: comfortably five years of premium output ahead Long term defenders: no concern about losing back statusPremium scorers: they’ve already demonstrated 85+ scoring and are in their prime now High floor, low ceiling: both only hit 120+ once in 2021 but also they rarely scored under 80 (Short did it four times, Daniel six)
I’m not going to waste words here. With Daniel and Short you’re getting a year-in year-out top 10 defender for the next five years. 
MJDid you watch the Grand Final? If you did, I probably don’t need to create much more of a compelling case for you to own Caleb Daniel than that game. 
The bulldogs love to get the ball into his hands to create both rebounds off defensive 50, but also damaging plays heading into their own attacking half. 
Since making the transition to the backline he’s averaged 93, 88 (BCV), and last season an 86. 
Daniel does possess a higher range of scoring deviation than I’d like, but like with anyone who can throw up a poor sub 50 score, you need to be able to counter it with some 120+ performances to balance that out. Thankfully for Daniel, he can do that.
At 25, he’s still got another 6-7 seasons of playing that core distributor role for the Doggies and for as long as he plays as a defender, he’ll be one of the safest 85+ averaging backs you’ll get in a keeper league. 
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Jayden Short

KANECaleb Daniel and Jayden Short I’m going to couple together because from a fantasy perspective they deliver basically the exact same thing. 
25 years of age: comfortably five years of premium output ahead Long term defenders: no concern about losing back statusPremium scorers: they’ve already demonstrated 85+ scoring and are in their prime now High floor, low ceiling: both only hit 120+ once in 2021 but also they rarely scored under 80 (Short did it four times, Daniel six)
I’m not going to waste words here. With Daniel and Short you’re getting a year-in year-out top 10 defender for the next five years. 
MJAs Kane has highlighted, the parallels between Caleb Daniel and Jayden Short are scarily similar. 
Jayden is rated elite in the league for meters gained, disposals and rebound 50’s. Further to these elite ratings, his kick to handball ratio is 3:1. Which is perfect for us keeper coaches. 

Since the start of 2020 Short hasn’t missed a game. That year he averaged 90.87 in a BCV equivalent.  To further prove it wasn’t a scoring anomaly 
In 2021 he averaged 93. That consisted of nine tons, and in just two occasions did his scoring dip sub 70.
At 26 years of age at the start of next season, not only is in his prime of scoring he’s also got long term defensive positional stability. GUN! 
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Max Gawn

KANEMax Gawn’s keeper stock obviously isn’t what it was three to four seasons ago but he’s still one of the best rucks in the game and a player that goes a long way to winning now. 
Despite Gawn hitting 30 years of age prior to the 2022 season commencing there’s no signs of deterioration in his game. Gawn delivered a 109 average in 2021 across all 22 home and away games. Gawn’s floor was remarkable again in 2021 with only three scores sub 90 (72, 73 and 84) to go with 15 tons (four of which were 130+). 
There’s some concern in the community that Luke Jackson’s continual growth will severely hamper Gawn’s scoring but I don’t see the major dip. We have to remember that 2022 is only season three for Jackson so he’s still a number of years away from taking the burden of a No. 1 ruck role. A positive for Gawn owners may arrive in 2024 in the form of forward status as Jackson continues to see more centre bounce action. 
It’s probably wishful thinking to expect more than three premium seasons out of Gawn but even if it’s just two I think you can push hard in that time with him to secure a premiership. 
MJAre his best years really behind him? It’s a narrative in the community, but I think it’s false.  Check out these seasonal averages  
2018: Avg 1112019: Avg 1112020: Avg 123.6 BCV2021: 108 AVG – 3 scores below 90, 15 tons, 5 120+
As Kane has touched on, his average from this season is much more aligned with the ‘normative’ scoring for gawn rather than his exceptional 2020. 
No doubt there’ll be ruck sharing with Luke Jackson, both as he develops but also as the Demons try to prepare Max for a big few years of premiership defence. 
A potential positive is he’ll likely end career as RUC/FWD DPP. The question Gawn owners need to ponder is how quickly (if at all) you handcuff him to Luke Jackson?
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Rowan Marshall

KANEIt’s when not if for Rowan Marshall in a keeper. The fact that he’ll be 26 years of age at the start of 2022 and has already delivered premium numbers in the past three seasons is remarkable. 
The clear handbrake that every Marshall owner is waiting to be released is Paddy Ryder. While Ryder is in the Saints team he’ll be their primary centre bounce ruckman as that’s the best part of his game. This currently has relegated Marshall to second-fiddle and spending the bulk of his time forward. 
The positive with Marshall’s current role is that he’s a ruck-forward and yet he can still score. The season that will see Marshall’s stock rise to an all-time high will be the year he’s primary ruck and starts the season with forward status. That one year will be a massive advantage for the coach that owns him but even after that I see him as a 100 averaging ruck and that’s a piece that will hold any side in great stead going forward.
MJThe year is 2024… which rucks are at the top of the tree?  Is Brodie Grundy  still there? Some might have Sean Darcy  or even Reilly O’Brien. All validate candidates. But I propose another option? Rowan Marshall. By then, Rowan might well be the #1 ruck option in the game.

Marshall might be sharing ruck duties with Paddy Ryder for now, but I believe in 12 months time this RUC/FWD will be playing as a sole ruck. 
In 2019 when he was solo ruck he averaged 99 and posted twelve tons.  Last year he averaged 89 from 13 games with just five tons. Here’s the interesting split, all of these hundreds were when Ryder wasn’t playing. In fact he averaged just 77 from the seven games they played together. However, in the six games he rucked solo he averaged 103.7 

The beauty of Marshall for one lucky owner is you’ll get a Unicorn season from him in the next season or two. Where he’s RUC/FWD eligible but playing as a pure ruck, meaning he’ll likely average 100+. 

Hugh McCluggage

KANEIt’s rare to see players increase their average each year but through his first five seasons that’s exactly what Hugh McCluggage has done. 
At 23 years of age and fresh off his first 100 point season McCluggage is already in rarified air. Even if he was just to maintain his current output he’d be a top 25 midfielder for the next seven years, which can’t be understated. 
I do think there’s a bit more improvement in McCluggage though. Currently, he plays predominantly an outside role but he’s certainly capable of playing on the inside if required and it will only take a couple more CBA’s to push his average to 105 and then he’s inside the top 20. 
The other factor you have to love about McCluggage is his availability. In the past four seasons he’s played every game bar one! 
While he might never deliver a 110+ season I think his reliability and availability will make him an excellent keeper for many years to come. 
MJI’m not sold Hugh McCluggage ever gives us the monster 110-115+ season, that’s due to him likely being more outside impacting midfielder. But that said, I don’t see him dropping under 95-105 for the next 8 seasons.
Last season he averaged 100, it included thirteen tons, eight of these were over 110, and just twice last season his scoring dipped under 74. 
This is a breakdown of his scoring spread from last season: 50% from kicks, 16% HB, 15% marks, 14% tackles, 3% goals. That’s a player who’s not dependent on one ‘variable’ to score.  An unheralded stat line for Hugh is around his durability. In the past four seasons missed one game. 
The human suitcase may never become the ‘monster’ elite like others on this list, but he will be a crucial cog in keeper leagues for the better part of a decade. 
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Caleb Serong

KANEWhat Caleb Serong has already demonstrated in his first two seasons is phenomenal. Since earning his debut in Round 4 last year Serong hasn’t missed a game, playing 36 straight. 
In that time he’s already shown a massive ceiling. In Round 6 this year against North Melbourne he scored 143 points on the back of 35 disposals, seven marks and seven tackles. For comparison, fellow Tier 5 midfielder Hugh McCluggage has a career-high of 128 points despite playing another 70 games. 
It wasn’t just a one-off either with Serong reeling off back to back to back tons to finish the season (118, 117 and 116 in Round 21-23). In addition, to a ton and three 90s in the reduced gametime of the 2020 season.
While the departure of Adam Cerra will certainly help Serong I don’t see it as the main reason for his improvement in 2022 and beyond. The real upside for Serong is that his time on ground is extremely low (70% range) and that should continue to increase as he gets more preseasons under his belt. The other thing that will help Serong is his role. This year he was tasked with numerous run-with roles in the early part of the year before being released to hunt the ball in the later part of the year. I believe that was all part of his learning and won’t be something we see often going forward. 
At 20 years of age there’s a decade of 100+ scoring on the horizon for this Fremantle rising star. 
MJNailing the picks inside the top 50 of a brand new keeper is critical to immediate and sustained success. Caleb Serong has the forecast potential to be among one of the best players in the years to come. 
If you want a long term 105 averaging midfield with potential for more you’ve got to jump ahead of where a redraft or seasonal draft league board would rank them. 
Last year he split his season playing some defensive minded midfield roles before being released in the last month. It was his final three weeks where he scored 18, 117 & 116 that really caught people’s attention. Across the 2021 year he averaged 82, which was made up of five tons including a personal best 143. 
In a BCV era 2020 we still saw the raw potential of scoring brilliance.  That year he took six games before debuting with a BCV ton (aka an 80+) score. But it was back to back 90’s before he scored a pure 101 (aka 120 in BCV world). 
He’ll get plenty of preseason hype among the AFLFantasy community, so if you want to own him you can’t expect too many to sleep on him. 
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Matt Crouch

KANELet’s start with the positives surrounding Matt Crouch. From 2017 to 2020 he averaged between 105-110 points and played 90 percent of games. Throw into the mix that he’s 26 years old and should have 3+ years of elite scoring ahead of him, you’d be fair to ask why he’s not in a higher tier.
Well that’s where we do have to address the negatives. When you miss a whole season through injury, alarm bells are rightly going to go off. Particularly, when the injury is a groin and is prone to linger and re-occur. 
There’s also some concern around how Adelaide will structure their midfield and amount of opportunity Crouch may get with Laird and Keays coming off impressive seasons and the plethora of youth the Crows are trying to develop. I still believe Crouch is one of their top centre bounce midfielders but any dip in attendance would negatively impact his scoring. 
Hopefully by the time you have to make a decision on drafting/trading Crouch we have an update on how his body is progressing through the preseason. Clearly there’s some massive risk if he’s unable to get on the park but there’s also plenty of upside with his scoring power. 
MJOne of the greatest dangers in keepers is that with established players you go ‘too far back’ in their scoring history. By osmosis, you can start to value them at a potentially inflated price and begin paying a draft position based on who they’ve been not what they’ll deliver. 
In the case of Matt Crouch, I don’t believe that’s a risk you need to worry about. At 26, he’s still right in the prime of his career and should he 
Looking back at his most recent season, 2020 was a bizarre season for Crouch. Before getting dropped in round four due to poor form, Crouch was averaging 64.3 (80 adjusted) and had a top score of 72. When he returned in round five he scored 4 tons, 4 additional scores over 90, 2 over 80 and had the lowest score of 75. In these final 13 matches, he averaged 93.9 (adjusted 117)
The years prior he averaged 106, 104 & 106. Clearly, the risk with Crouch isn’t scoring ability, it’s what level does he return to post a season ruined by injury? That is the big question coaches will need to answer before investing in him.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Six | Patreon Exclusive
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Read Time:14 Minute, 48 Second

MJ & Kane continue their analysis on who they believe are the top 50 players for a brand new UltimateFooty Keeper league.
In tier six, we look at seven more players and unpack their fantasy potential.

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Adam Cerra

KANEA lot of the glow from Adam Cerra’s time at Fremantle has rightly gone to Andy Brayshaw and Nat Fyfe but Cerra is set to boom. 

After playing much of his AFL career across half-back and half-forward I think we’re finally about to see him released as an inside midfielder. 

In 2021 we saw Cerra’s CBA’s increase and as a result we saw some ceiling in the final rounds of the season. In Round 19 Cerra racked up 129 points thanks to 30 disposals, nine marks and two goals and backed it up the next week with 138 points courtesy of 33 disposals, eight marks and six tackles. 

I know it’s only a couple days but that’s the type of well-rounded scoring that the uber premiums have. With the chatter that Cerra will land at Carlton who are screaming out for midfield support I think we get a 95-100 season from him in 2022 and then consistent 100 seasons after that. 
MJWhen I think of how best to describe Adam Cerra as a player the first word that comes to mind is class. ‘Chez’ has this uncanny ability to make the difficult look easy and find his teammates lace out from seemingly impossible positions. 
The scoring consistency hasn’t yet popped for him, just last year alone he delivered just four scores over 100. But what I like about his scoring is the steady build. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 60, 75 (BCV) and now an 87 which includes an injury impacted 15. 
If this current scoring trend both continues and maintains at his new club, he should average 95 for the next 7-8 seasons. Additionally, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ever cracked a few seasons over the 105 marker. 
At Carlton (his rumoured club of choice) he’ll never get tagged. That will always be Sam Walsh or Patrick Cripps if he can ever get back to his former glory. Having Cerra as potentially the #3 midfielder will be an exciting proposition for Blues fans but also for keeper coaches.
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Bailey Smith

KANEThere’s definitely a lot of merit in taking superstar players even if their scoring isn’t quite reflective of their standing in the game, as there’s always a buyer in the league that wants to own them. 

I don’t want the above comment to downplay Smith’s fantasy ability though. In his three seasons he’s already demonstrated that he has elite scoring traits. In 2021 alone he produced scores of 131,127, 125, 118 to go with a 126 in the semi final against Brisbane. That’s incredible scoring for a third year player.

My major concern with Smith as a fantasy prospect is his role. He’s been so damaging as a wingman with his workrate and capacity to hit the scoreboard that I worry he’ll be locked into this role for the bulk of his career. 

It’s extremely difficult to be a wingman that pushes past 105 and with Bontempelli, Liberatore, Macrae, Dunkley and Treloar all having multiple years of elite football ahead of them I don’t see a need to move Smith into a sought after inside midfield role. 

Even if Smith stays out on a wing for the next five years he’s too good of a player to average less than 90 points. I don’t think the fantasy output will match his superstardom but it will be more than good enough for many years to come.
MJI gotta be upfront with you. In keeper leagues, you want players that can score, but you always want to enjoy the player on your list. Thankfully, Bailey Smith ticks both of those boxes for keeper coaches.
Smith is genuinely one of the most watchable players in the AFL right now, and at just 21 years old when the season starts he’ll continue to only get better. 
Since debuting for the club he hasn’t missed a game. And in that debut year, he finished with an average of 69. Many know about my ‘games to first-ton’ metric for keeper values. For Bailey, it took him 14 games before that first ton. However, he had 3 scores over 90 before that. 
In 2020, he delivered a BCV average of 86 which included one pure ton and an additional six over 80. Remember in 2020 ‘80 was the new 100’ due to the shorter game time. 
For the season just gone, he averaged 87, scored six tons which included four over 115. 
The score build is there. He wins the contested ball, also accumulates the uncontested stuff, he tackles, marks and kicks goals. He’s well and truly the total package!
The lack of positional stability is of concern, as that impact both his ceiling and scoring basement. But at just 20 years of age at the time of writing, he has plenty of time to lock down a permanent position. 
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Sean Darcy

KANEIt was the breakout season we’ve all been waiting for from Sean Darcy. The 23-year-old ruckman played 21 games (his previous best was 15 out of 17 in 2020) and demonstrated the scoring power we saw glimpses of in his first season. 

Darcy’s average of 94 points was headlined with scores of 133, 132 and 122 but also brought down with scores of 44 (vs St Kilda, limited by injury and played forward) 59 (vs West Coast & Nic Naitanui) and 64 (vs Collingwood & Grundy). 

There’s clearly two massive challenges for Darcy as he aspires to match the top rucks. Firstly, his body. He needs to string seasons of 20+ games together and missing just three games in the past two seasons is an encouraging sign. Secondly, increase his floor. You can’t have 30-40 dips on your average when you face the best rucks in the competition. 

With a rising list around him and obvious role guarantees, Darcy has all the traits to be a long term ruck option. If you’re picking him in this range I think you have him pegged as a 95-100 player going forward. If you’re higher on him don’t be afraid to make your move earlier, if you lower on him well he’ll be well and truly gone by the time you’re comfortable to take him.
MJEver since Sean Darcy broke onto the football scene back in 2017 it;’s been clear he has the fantasy pedigree. A debut score of 80 was followed up a week later with a 114. The potential has always been there, but the injury issues in his body had previously let him down. Prior to this year, he’d never played more the 15 games in a season.

In 2021 he played 21 games, scored nine tons including three over 120 and an extra eight more scores over 80. And to be honest I thought he was pretty perfect in his year. But can he get better? In theory, yes, but for him to elevate himself to the Brodie Grundy territory of rucks, he’ll need to continue to improve on his endurance and athleticism. 

If he can do that, it’ll provide him with the necessary opportunities to push that average north of 105-110. 
Valuing rucks in any draft is both difficult and divisive. Everyone has differences of opinion. And that’s fine, but from a topline perspective, I’ll say this. Would you be prepared to spend a round 4 round draft pick on a player who’s 23 years old and likely top 3-4 in his line for the next 7+ seasons? For me, the answer is clearly ‘yes,’ which is why he’s in this tier on our list. 
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Matt Rowell

KANEAre you a glass half full or glass half empty kind of coach?

The junior pedigree and first four games of Matt Rowell are historic but injuries and some underwhelming performances since have put a halt to much of the hype. 

For a player like Rowell who has 10+ years ahead of him I think there’s always going to be at least one coach who jumps early so to get him I think you’re going to have to reach inside the top 25 picks. I feel comfortable in the 30s and wouldn’t be expecting 100+ in 2022 but more so high 80s, low 90s. 

No doubt Rowell could be a top 10 prospect as soon as 12 months from now and reward the coach that selects him for a long time. Ideally from now and draft day in Feb/March you’d love to hear that he’s tearing up the track in preseason and is healthy.
MJHow long can we be prepared to hold onto his junior numbers and start of the 2020 season and believe these as normal? 
In 2020 before succumbing to his season ending shoulder injury, he scored 64, 108, 104, & 78 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam resulting in an average of 70.8 or 88.5 adjusted. 
In the NAB League for Oakleigh, Rowell averaged 123 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. From his seven games, he averaged 32 disposals, 17 contested possessions, eight tackles and four marks per game.
This year, 12 games, an average of  55 and he didn’t score over 80 all year. The past 2 seasons of serious injury hits are a little concerning, but not alarming. At 20, he’s got a mountain of time on his side. 
I still think Rowell has the potential to be a 110+ averaging midfielder, and positively for new keeper leagues, he’s probably slipped a round or two in peoples eyes for when they target to draft him.
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Reilly O’Brien

KANEWhen to pick a ruck is always a challenge in a keeper and largely it depends on the setup of your league. Clearly the deeper the league the more valuable they become, particularly if you have the utility position activated. 

For this list, we’ve gone with 10 teams and one ruck on the field so the value is lesser but there’s always a need for a good one. 

The hard thing with ROB is what is his value? The upside looks to be near the best in the league as he’s demonstrated stretches of 110 scoring, however, in 2020 he had some scores that were shockers from a fantasy perspective and as a result his average fell into the 80s. 

With the reports ROB was carrying injury throughout much of the season I see him averaging near 100 for the next 3-5 years. The Riley Thilthorpe addition is a massive positive for ROB in my opinion as it means the Crows won’t play a second traditional ruck and instead have a talented ruck-forward in Thilthorpe to share the ruck duties with. 
MJWhich is the real Reilly O’Brien? Is it what he delivered in 2021? Or is it closer to his previous efforts when holding the #1 ruck mantle? 
From 20 games last year he averaged 86, scoring 5 tons and just an additional seven scores 80 or higher. Pleasingly for owners looking for ‘upside’, his 6 lowest scores came in the opening 10 rounds. But in the last 10 games of the year, he dropped his scores under 87 just twice. 

In 2020 he averaged 86.7 Avg (108 adjusted average) and scored 6 tons and 5 additional scores 80+.  While in 2019 he averaged 95 from 18 games. 
The club has confirmed that for major portions of the season that he was carrying some injury concerns of his lower back. So for me, there’s enough data for me to have greater confidence to think he’s closer to 2019/2020 scoring than 2021.  
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Zak Butters

KANEZak Butters is on his list largely for the eye test. The way he plays the game and the skill set he has projects as an elite player for mine. 

Now that’s not to say he hasn’t demonstrated some scoring power already. 

In the shortened games of 2020 Butters delivered scores of 114, 97 and 85 and in 2021 he produced scores of 119, 91, 90 and 88 in the full length games. 

This more than enough scoring for a player who has only played three seasons and hasn’t seized a prosperous midfield role. 

The best case for someone like Butters is that he becomes what Robbie Gray was in his prime. From 2014-2016 Gray averaged 96, 97 and 98 points while maintaining forward status and could always be relied upon for a big game.    
MJThe balance of keeper leagues is paying for a player at what they will be, and not just what they have. The risk to do this is you can pay for a layer ‘earlier than others’ as your forecasting potential.
At 21 years old the signs are there that Zak Butters knows how to deliver fantasy points, just looks at some of the signs from 2021.
R5, 119 |  36 touches, 6 tackles and a goalR20, 88 | 22 touches, 6 marks, 1 goalR21, 90 | 19 touches, 2 goalsR22, 91 |  25 touches 
I see another 8+ seasons of 85+ seasonal averages from Butters. There is a ‘small risk’ he moves into a predominate midfield role and loses that forward eligibility. However, the upside is that if he’s around the ball that much to lose FWD status, he’s probably averaging 95+ anyway. So in reality it’s probably not much of a loss. 
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Jordan De Goey

KANEJordan De Goey might be the most complicated player in the 50!

At 25 years of age he should be in the prime of his career and based off his second half of the season his scoring is certainly good enough (106 from Round 11-23).

Where it gets tricky to project De Goey going forward is the new coach – Craig McRae. How does he envisage De Goey in his Collingwood side in 2022 and beyond? What is the split between midfield and forward? 

I can’t see De Goey’s average falling below 80 and that would be with playing the majority of his time forward. Sole midfield his average should be edging towards triple figures as he has all the tools in his fantasy game to do so. 

The ideal mix is clearly just enough forward time to remain forward eligible with the rest in the midfield hunting the ball. If this happens I can see De Goey as a 90-100 player and constant top forward.
MJMr Upside is what I want to call Jordan De Goey. Much has been made about both his notorious start to 2021 scoring and a stunning ending. 
2021 was a tale of two scoring halves from his seasonal average of 84. Between rounds 1-10 he averaged 57 including an injury affected 3. However, from rounds 11-23 he averaged 106 with a high of 125 and a low of just 93. 
I don’t have any concerns about him losing forward status both in the immediate and long term. De Goey is far too imposing a forward 50 option, and no coach would want to lose him from there permanently. 
The greatest unknown for him is what’s the game style of the Magpies under McRae? Will it be high ball retention like last year? Or will they be looking for more impact per possession? I still rate him as a career 80+ FWD from now till retirement.  

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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Seven | Patreon Exclusive
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Read Time:7 Minute, 46 Second

So you’ve decided to start up a keeper league! But not sure where you should rank players, especially early on? Good news, MJ & Kane have ranked the top 50 players into eight different selection tiers! This article accompanies the podcasts to help give you a quick reference guide when wither creating your new keeper ranks. Or if in an existing keeper, to target some potential trade candidates.

Welcome to Tier Seven!

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Christian Salem

KANEChristian Salem’s appearance on this list might surprise a few but it’s certainly warranted. To have a defender reliably producing high 80s averages at the age of 26 is hard to find. 

He’s now a key cog in the Melbourne defence from not only a transition from back 50 to forward 50 perspective but also his ability to defend on small forwards. 

While Salem might have a lower floor than someone like Tom Stewart he has the ceiling to offset the lows and I believe hasn’t had his career-best year.
MJIt’s not a flashy pick, and for some, ranking him inside the top 40 odd picks might be high, but the numbers and his positional security indicate he’s worth it. 
Since 2017 he’s averaged 85, 79, 89, 88 and this year coming off the back of a personal best 93. This year he had 9 tons and an additional 5 scores 80+. In addition to his relative consistency is he holds some ceiling with scores of 141, 126 & 119. 
In the past four seasons, he’s missed five games and has no chance of losing DEF position. At 26 years old he got another 5+ seasons of being a reliable backman for your keeper side. 
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Tom Stewart

KANETom Stewart has been the dream mature age recruit. In his debut season in 2017 he played 21 games and the following four seasons have yielded three All-Australian honours.

As good as his football is, it’s fantasy prospects that have him on this list. In the past three years Stewart has been one of the best defenders with averages of 95, 96 and 97 points. 

He doesn’t boast the ceiling of others but his consistency is remarkable and he rarely dips below 80 points. At 28 years of age you can bank on elite scoring for the next three seasons.
MJMr Consistent. It’s plain and simple. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 95, 96 (BCV) & 97. In 2021 he scored 11 tons and just one score below 79.  
Ceiling scores can win you draft matchups, but equally, low basement scores can bury you. Tom Stewart is 10 point deviation on either side of a 90 most weeks. 
At 28 years old, this is arguably the only major ‘risk’ with Stewart, but I can’t see a world where unless injuries strike he doesn’t continue on his scoring trend for a few more seasons to come. 
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Jordan Ridley

KANEJordan Ridley has been phenomenal since he established himself in the Bombers best side in 2020. Not only did Ridley deliver an adjusted average of 89, he won the Crichton Medal as the Bombers best and fairest winner. 
2021 started with a bang! In the first four games he was averaging 108 points before concussion ended his day in Round 5 on just 15 points. After he served his concussion protocol missing Round 6, Ridley could only manage 77 points across the final 16 games. 
As disappointing as that average was I think the lack of lockdown defenders the Bombers had was the reason for Ridley not scoring as well. With Jake Kelly joining the club I think this will allow Ridley to return to his fruitful intercepting role. 
A year-in year-out defender who can average 80+ at the age of 23 is extremely hard to find. While 2021 was a regression I think it will be viewed as merely a hiccup in the career of Ridley. 
MJPositional security in keeper league sides is huge, especially in the back and forward lines. If you can secure a long term prospect that won’t lose these positions it can help your list profile drastically.
Jordan Ridley might not ever end up being a top tier defender, but what he will be is a reliable long term option.
Since his breakout in 2020 where he averaged a BCV 89, he followed it up this year with an 80. Note this did include an injury impacted score of 15. Over the season he had 4 tons and an additional 6 scores of 80+. 
At 22 years old, if he can lift his scoring floor a little more he looks like he’s a safe 85 back for the next 8+ seasons.

The other factor to consider is the impending arrival of Jake Kelly. Jake’s a more than handy lockdown defender capable of playing or either small or tall types. The inclusion could further free up Ridley to play purely as an attacking interceptor. 
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Jack Crisp

KANEDurability. Availability. Here-if-you-need-ability. Simply Jack Crisp doesn’t miss games, in fact, he’s played 163 in a row.
As good as reliability is in keepers though it’s nothing if you can’t score and in Crisp’s seven seasons with Collingwood, he’s averaged 84+ in all of them. 
While Crisp’s back status may be under threat going into next season there’s every chance he regains through the year. Even if he remains a pure midfielder we saw Crisp deliver 100+ scores, which is still extremely valuable.  
MJSo much of his ranking does depend on whether he retains back status in 2022. Regardless, with the Pies bringing in a new coach we always need to show some level of caution. 
That being said, Jack Crisp delivers on all the key metrics we want. Arguably his best asset is that he’s had seven consecutive seasons where he hasn’t missed a game of AFL. In that time he’s averaged 84 or higher including a personal best 101.7 last year.

If he stays playing as a midfielder, I expect he stays as a safe 100 averaging centre. Conversely, if he returns to the backline he’ll still score enough to be a D1 or D2. Honestly, you can’t lose. 
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Patrick Dangerfield

KANEWhile not the dominant force he was in a keeper five years ago when he averaged 117.9 (2016) and 120.5 (2017), Patrick Dangerfield’s durability and fantasy output is nothing short of remarkable. Across nine home and away seasons Dangerfield played 187 of a possible 193 games and averaged 106 points. Let that wash over you for a moment. 
I’ve been preaching future performance in keepers so I do have to put those numbers largely to the side. The important thing going forward is clearly his forward status. Dangerfield will retain forward status for the remainder of his career and only injury will stop him being one of the games best forwards for the next three years. 
If you pick Dangerfield you need to be thinking premiership from the jump so don’t be afraid to grab some elder statesmen who are still scoring well.  
MJThe former Brownlow Medalist is one of only two players ranked inside our top 50 that are aged 30+. Why? Because in new keepers it’s important to pay a draft position with what they are/will be, not what they have been.
That said, Danger still will provide strong value for owners as he should retain MID/FWD DPP. 
Last seasons average of 86 is his lowest tally since 2011. Equally important, his 13 games is the smallest since his debut season of 2008. That said he still managed four tons including a monster 149. Write him off at your peril, as he is still at 31 has the potential of 2-3 more years as a top tier forward. 

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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Eight | Patreon Exclusive
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Read Time:14 Minute, 48 Second

So you’ve decided to start up a keeper league! But not sure where you should rank players, especially early on? Good news, MJ & Kane have ranked the top 50 players into eight different selection tiers! This article accompanies the podcasts to help give you a quick reference guide when wither creating your new keeper ranks. Or if in an existing keeper, to target some potential trade candidates.

If you want to understand more about tiering by ranks, listen to this podcast explaining it all.

TIER EIGHT

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Ben Keays

KANEIf Ben Keays was a top 10 pick with an 108 average to his name at 24 years of age there would be a lot more hype around his name. However, in many coaches eyes he’s still a guy that was delisted from his first club and not long for AFL level.

What I’ve seen from Keays at Adelaide doesn’t support this narrative. He’s already played more games in his two years with the Crows (38 games) than he did with four years at Brisbane (30 games). Only twice at the Lions did Keays have more than 20 disposals in a game, this year at Adelaide he had 20+ in all 22 games, including 10 games where he had 30+ and a career-high 38. 

I think it’s safe to say Keays is a different player at Adelaide to Brisbane and a lot of that is due to his role as an inside midfielder. While many will be scared that the role could depreciate with the return of Matt Crouch and growth of Harry Schoenberg, I still have faith in Keays to average 95-100 at a minimum.

The coaching staff clearly rated his efforts in 2021 as they rewarded him with a runner-up finish in the best and fairest and it would take a massive role change for his scoring to fall away in the prime of his career.
MJEverything clicked for Ben Keays in 2021. Keays played 22 games, averaged 108, scored 13 tons, with six of them above 120. He had just one score beneath 80 all year and ranked 13th for total points scored. 
From a fantasy perspective, he does it all. He wins the contested footy, works both ways and is prepared to do the defensive team stuff. And gets involved in the uncontested, running wave of the Crows. Last year he ranked 10th in the AFL for inside ’50s and has developed a clever knack of booting the odd goal.
The question for me isn’t can he score well again next year? Clearly, he has the game build for it. Rather, the uncertainty comes not knowing what impact does a healthy Matt Crouch have on his numbers? Along with an increased midfield presence of Harry Schoenberg, Luke Pedlar and Sam Berry? 
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Connor Rozee

KANEConnor Rozee burst onto the scene in 2019 playing all 22 games and averaging 72.5 points. It only took Rozee three games to post his first career ton, an electric 121-point effort against Brisbane on the back of  21 disposals, seven marks and five goals.

Rozee produced another ton before his debut season was out to showcase it was no fluke but since has battled injury and inconsistent form. 

The beautiful thing with Rozee is that he’s already played 59 AFL games, including four finals, and will be 22 years old when the 2022 season starts. That’s an incredible amount of experience for a player of his age. 

Rozee is already a solid scorer playing primarily forward, which should mean any sort of midfield uptick, and let’s face it Port need midfield help to support Travis Boak and Ollie Wines, should result in him reaching top 10 forward status comfortably. 
MJA stat that’s very important to me in keeper leagues is the number of games played before converting your first fantasy 100. It took only three games for Connor Rozee. Injuries have frustrated his past two seasons, but it’s clear that Connor is a star footballer when fit, and unlike some others, it does correlate to fantasy scoring. 
In his debut season, he averaged 72, with five scores over 90. This season from his 19 games, he had five scores over 85, not bad for a guy carrying niggles most of the year. I believe he’s a long term MID/FWD.  The most significant value piece is if he retains this long term, he’s a potential 80-85 guy with a small ceiling. If he moves into the midfield, then he’s a 100+ performer. Either way, you can’t lose. 
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Noah Anderson

KANEIn keeper leagues like all fantasy you always have to remember you’re paying for future performance. 
I know a lot of coaches want to see a player deliver before jumping on board but in keepers in particular you don’t have that luxury. If you want to secure the next generation of stars you have to be prepared to jump earlier than most would feel comfortable and Noah Anderson is certainly that type of player.
In his two seasons at AFL level Anderson has played 37 of a possible 39 games and averaged 77.6 across that time. However, it’s the ceiling that is most impressive for me. To already have two 120 scores under your belt and five games with 30+ disposals in your second season is extremely rare. 
I see Anderson a 100 midfielder for the better part of a decade and if he’s moved into a predominately inside role could have a couple of 110 years mixed in. 
MJForecasting is an important factor in keeper leagues. You need to ‘jump’ earlier than others might to get the future’ guns’ to secure them. For example, to pick Noah Anderson inside the top 50 for some might be early, but all his trends suggest he’s on the way to be a highly valuable asset. 
In his debut season, he averaged a more than respectable 73.5. Contrary to some former keeper league stars, Scott Pendlebury averaged 62 in his first year, while Jackson Macrae went at 63. 
Entering into 2021 he lifted his average up to 81 and importantly posted 4 tons, all of which were over 115. With 5 additional scores 80+. This scoring trajectory is very healthy and will only get better as he enters into the famed ‘3rd-year breakout next season. The Gold Coast midfielder looks destined to become a long term 100+ performer for the next decade. 
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Brad Crouch

KANEFor many coaches, Brad Crouch still has a stink due to the injury issues that plagued the first six years of his career and because of that he’s often undervalued.  
The past three seasons are as far back as I base my fantasy research as too much changes beyond that. Looking at Brad’s past three seasons he’s played 54 of a possible 61 games and averaged 99.8 (2020 averaged adjusted to full game time by multiplying the average by 1.25). 
In that three-year window, Brad missed two of the games due to an off-field suspension, so I’m comfortable with his availability. Moreover, my confidence in his scoring has never wavered, he scores when he plays, largely due to the fact he absorbs a prosperous inside midfield role. 
Clearly Jack Steele is the Saints No. 1 man but that’s perfect for Brad who can just hunt ball and man and deliver 100 point seasons for the next 3-5 years. 
MJOver the last few seasons, Brad’s been a rollercoaster ride to own in drafts. In 2015 & 2018 he played zero footy. However, in 2019 he averaged 107.9 and was ranked 7th for total overall points.
Promisingly over the past few seasons he’s only had one minor hamstring setback and finally appears to be over the ‘injury-prone tag’.
In his first season as a saint, he averaged 95.2, scored 11 tons and had 4 over 120. Not amazing, but the 27-year-old has shown now across multiple seasons and clubs he has the ability to deliver a strong run of tons.
At St Kilda, he’ll never get tagged over Jack Steele. But like his captain, he has an uncanny ability to find himself near the footy. He might not get back to his PB season of a few years back where he was a top 10 scorer, but he’s one of the safest 95+ performers going around. 
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Toby Greene

KANEToby Greene is a polarising footballer and that extends to his fantasy game. A lot of the traits we look for in a fantasy prospect Greene lacks: namely availability and consistency. 
His propensity to get injured or suspended can drive coaches mental. While the nature of his ‘key’ forward role naturally invites volatility in scoring.
Yet he still makes the top 50. So he must be doing something right. 
What Greene does right is maintain forward status year on year, which can’t be understated. Reliable scoring forwards are so hard to come by and when Greene plays he’s near on guaranteed to score 80+ if not 90+. Some coaches will put a line through him because they can’t stand him but he’s the exact type of player that can deliver you a flag if the stars align. 
MJWhether you’ve played the ‘classic’ games of fantasy before or always been a ‘draft coach,’ you’d know that the greatest player positional security line is the forwards. 
It’s why players like Toby Greene even with his suspension tendencies to miss multiple games a year is a highly desirable asset. Even though the Giants love him occasionally in the midfield, it’s inside forward 50 he’s the most prolific.
Since 2014 this is his seasonal averages: 103, 86, 93, 91, an injury impacted 67, 98, 82 (BCV) and last year an 84. 
It says it all really, at 27 he’s got at least another 4-5 seasons of high performing top end forward scores for his keeper league owners. 
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Jy Simpkin

KANEJy Simpkin has so many elements to his game that make him a great keeper. At 23 years of age he’s already got 95 games under his belt at AFL level, which demonstrates not only his durability but adaptability. 
Simpkin started his career as a small forward and looked every part a good one, but his move to the midfield has catapulted his fantasy stocks.
In 2021 he played every game and averaged an impressive 95 points (105 post bye across 11 games). But for me it’s not just the 27 disposals, four marks and four tackles that jump out to me but the eye test. 
Simpkin provides something different to that Roos midfield. He has a contested game, but his ability to operate cleanly in traffic and spread will make him a mainstay in his current role.
MJIn 2020 we saw the breakout of Jy Simpkin. He elevated himself from a mid 60’s averaging performer into a respectable 88.5 BCV. This year that development continued as he averaged 95. 
At first glance, a 95 might not feel enough to qualify for this tier, but at 23 years old getting 8 seasons of 95+ averages is something of high value. The good news is the year is slightly deceiving. Over the first 11 games, Simpkin post just 4 tons and averaged 86. However, in the final 11 games post-bye, he scored 8 tons and had just one score below 96.
Encouragingly, he’s proving to be quite durable, with him missing just one match over the past 4 seasons. 
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Tarryn Thomas

KANEI can’t lie I didn’t see Tarryn Thomas’ 2021 breakout coming at all. After his 2020 campaign was struck down six games in due to a left foot injury I thought 2021 would be a gradual step forward. What we got though was a glimpse at a player that could be a genuine star of the competition and exactly what the Roos would have dreamed of when they selected their Next Gen Academy prospect. 
The tailend of the season is what has Thomas in the 50. First, to average 93 postbye across 11 games and most notably 107 in the final five games, which included the four highest scores of his career – 96, 115, 120 and 126.Those are serious numbers!
The major concern I had for Thomas he answered in that postbye stretch.Ball winning: Averaging 21 disposals (high of 26)
Ticking that disposal box combined with his ability to take a mark, lay a tackle, and kick a goal demonstrates that he can build his score in many different ways, which is exactly what it takes to be a premium player long term. 
MJIt was a breakout season for Tarryn, averaging 81 and playing 21 games. However, looking into his season with more detail, the breakout is still deceiving to his accurate scoring. In the first 14 games, he had just one score over 90 and 5 scores between 50-59. However, it’s his final seven game stretch that should excite coaches. A top score of 126, two additional tons and the lowest score in that run of 78. In this stretch of games, he averaged 101.
Like some others on this tier in Rozee and Heeney, Thomas is so valuable and damaging inside forward 50, it would be doing the Kangaroos a disservice to exclude him from big minutes as a forward. That said, I think North Melbourne do need his class and Xfactor through the midfield. 
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Isaac Heeney

KANEYou don’t have to watch much football to know Isaac Heeney is a special player. To be 25 years old and already have three genuine elite forward seasons under your belt is impressive. 
However, we can’t sugarcoat that the past two years for Heeney have been underwhelming. Injuries restricted him to six games in 2020, while this year saw him play 20 home and away games, injuries again curtailed his output in what was his lowest seasonal average since his first year.
The fact remains though that year on year forwards that can score 85+ don’t come around too often and that’s what Heeney is. So don’t be scared off by the past two years, remember we’re selecting him for future performance. To think that Heeney could finish his career without an All-Australian honour just doesn’t sit right with me, the best is definitely still to come.
MJOne of the significant challenges in managing a keeper list is ensuring that you don’t have an annual issue of positional insecurity. By that, I mean a yearly transition of eligible players in either the back or forward lines. 
While Isaac Heeney might never be a top 5-6 averaging forward, he’s a super consistent performer year on year. Between 2017 and 2019, he averaged 92, 90 & 89. This season, we did see a scoring dip with an average of just 76. However, even with this poor season, he still ranked as a top 30 FWD by averages. 
What we saw from Isaac was a greater variety of scoring. For example, he gave us multiple scores over 130, but also four scores sub 50. 
If he can get that scoring basement back towards his consistent 70’s of years gone by, then at 25, he’s one of the most dependable forward stocks to build around. 

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How do you rank Darcy Parish in a keeper?
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Read Time:2 Minute, 37 Second

Without a doubt, one of the breakout players in fantasy footy this season was Darcy Parish. The recently crowned All Australian midfielder moved from being on the fringe of squad selection to be an M1 potentially. The big question for new keeper leagues or those considering trading for him is how you should rank Darcy Parish in a keeper?

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In 2021, DP5 was one of the players of the season. He concluded the season with an average of 105.5, ranking him 21st and 16th for total points. That alone is a promising position, but coaches will know that it wasn’t a smooth trajectory for the totality of the season. 

Over the opening five weeks of the season, he averaged 86, and his sole ton of the year to date was 117. However, from Anzac Day against the Magpies that he was fully released to play as a midfielder. So from round six onwards, here’s the stat line for Parish. 

From the final 17 games of the season, he scored 11 tons, 7 of them over 120 and 2 over the monster mark of 150. He averaged 111.7 and put together a hot streak of 7 consecutive hundreds between round 6-12. 

With numbers like that over the final three-quarters of the season, keeper league coaches would think they’ve landed themselves a new franchise player. And it’s not a horrible call.

Like anything, you’ve always got to look at the narrative behind the numbers. Firstly, what caused the role change? Simple! A long-term injury to Dylan Shiel was after an almost season-ending injury to Jye Caldwell. So if injury created the opportunity, what happened upon their return?

Caldwell didn’t play again in the home and away season. But Shiel did in round 19. So in the 15 games, Parish played without Dylan, he averaged 117.7. However, when Shiel did play (7 games), he averaged 79.1. That’s a differential of 38.6. More specifically, over the final five games, when both played, Dylan averaged a mere 84.4. 

To be clear, I don’t see a world with him moving out of the midfield role. Instead, my concern is scoring like that, which impact his scoring ceiling. 

When allowed to be the midfield leader along with Zach Merrett, he’s a 110 averaging midfielder. However, when the Bombers have a few more mouths to feed, the small sample size says he’s not a Topline performer. 

So, how do you rank Darcy Parish? I don’t have him ranked inside the top 15 players in a keeper league. But he has the potential to become one quickly. If you want to own him, you’ll probably have to use a late first – second round selection on him.

Where do you have DP5 ranked?

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MJ’s Top 10 Keeper Ranks from the 2020 Draft Class
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Read Time:8 Minute, 5 Second

As we head towards the end of an AFL season, every year, keeper league coaches out of contention start to look towards the coming season. To help with list management, MJ ranks his top 10 keeper league prospects from the 2020 AFL draft class.

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ONE | Tom Powell

Heading into this season, he was my #1 ranked player from this draft class, and he leaves it holding onto the same possession. He does everything we want from a future premium midfielder. He wins plenty of contested ball, does the defensive stuff and knows how to find space and get the uncontested pill too. Additionally, he’s not so damaging with the football by foot that you must tag him. Between rounds 4-7, we saw glimpses of his potential. During this month, he scored 91, 73, 102 & 104. Not a bad effort to deliver two tons in your first seven games, not many current premiums can boast that pedigree. There is also a chance that he’ll have MID/FWD DPP in 2022. But, even if he doesn’t, he’s a future fantasy gun and someone I’d love to own!

TWO | Errol Gulden

One of the key metrics I track with projecting potential fantasy stars is how many games it takes to register a ton. For Errol, it didn’t take long as he did this in his first game. While it took another 12 games before he delivered another, his start as a player has been outstanding. 2 tons, a 98, a 93 + an 88. Not a bad top 5 scores from your first 13 games. What I also like is his positional security. He looks far too damaging and crafty to depart the Sydney forward line. If you can’t get your hands on Powell, then Gulden is the next best target.

THREE | Braeden Campbell

Maybe a little high for some, but Campbell boasts all the weapons you want from a fantasy player. Damaging skills, high footy IQ and, in my opinion, is the heir apparent Jake Lloyd in a few seasons. Rewind the tape to round 2 against the Crows. He racked up 25 touches across half-back, took 6 marks, had 2 tackles and delivered a 96. If you could get a decade of scores like that on your keeper side, you’d be stoked!

FOUR | Finlay Macrae

Several things are safe predictions in fantasy football. Rucks scoring well against Gold Coast, Mason Cox performing against Richmond and a player with the surname Macrae being a ball magnet. Across his junior days, Finaly showed a high possession count that mirrored the brilliance of his brother. While he’s had minimal opportunities to play through the midfield at AFL level, he’s shown the same traits to be a fantasy jet in the moments he’s had. Go back at his first half against his last quarter against West Coast and his first half last week against Port. This is a ball magnet who just needs to build his tank over the next few seasons before he can explode and be a future star comparable to his brother.

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FIVE | Caleb Poulter

When you watch them play, certain players can see their fantasy footy pedigree on display. And with Caleb Poulter, it was obvious from game one. ‘CP’ just knows where to find the footy and is your perfect wingman. Not only does he get into space to become an outlet. But he also looks composed in traffic. In his fourth AFL game, he tonned up and a fortnightly later followed it up with a second. I see him as a future Andrew Gaff style performer. So grab him if you can! The kid can go.

SIX | Will Phillips

Depending on the calibre of coaches in your keeper leagues, there is a chance that Will Phillips was the first midfielder taken on draft night that he was the #1 draftee taken in your keeper league this year. Regardless of where you get drafted, players can develop at different rates. Not everyone is going to have debut seasons like Sam Walsh. I believe Phillips has the clear potential to be a long term 90+ midfielder for coaches, but I’m not convinced he’ll ever become a ‘franchise’ style fantasy player. Why? Look at the other midfielders north have. Jed Anderson, Jy Simpkin, Luke Davies Uniacke, Trent Dumont, Tarryn Thomas, Jaidyn Stephenson, and Tom Powell. That’s a lot of midfielders that are at their best as ball winners. You can only have so many of that type with a pure midfield role. And this isn’t even factoring in Ben Cunnington, who is only 30. He’s yet to crack a score over 70, but he’s also yet to get a good run at holding down serious midfield minutes. He might be a slower burn than owners might like, but I still rate him as a prospect.

SEVEN | Nik Cox

The Bombers nailed this selection at the draft last year with Cox, the leader for the rising star with many bookmakers. For his height, he does so many things exceptionally well. Nik covers the ground with a good turn of speed. He has clean hands below his knees and then has the elite foot skills and intercept marking to make him a handful for anyone. It took him 12 games before he registered his first fantasy ton, but given he’s played various positions for Essendon this year, his scores fluctuation doesn’t surprise me. I won’t be shocked if he becomes the next Marcus Bontempelli. And just like Bont, he could break out as early as his second season.

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EIGHT | Luke Pedlar

Of all players in this list, I think Luke could be the one that is either still in the player pool, or if owned, is the one that’d cost you the least to trade for. The Crows do take their time with developing midfielders. Look at how they are using Berry and, to a lesser extent Pedlar. Giving them high midfield minutes at SANFL level, but building their craft at the elite level more as a forward who then slots into the middle. Pedlar is exactly the type of midfielder the Crows have been crying out for and is perfect for fantasy. He’s a contested bull, but he has a turn of speed over the first 5 seconds that makes him pull away from opposition quickly at a stoppage. He’s also a goal kicker. With guys like Crouch, Sloane & Laird in that midfield to speed up that development, I think we could see a future fantasy jet in the making.

NINE | Archie Perkins

He’s a hard one to place, but the upside with Perkins is certainly there. If he stays as a primary forward, he’ll probably drop out of relevance for keeper leagues. Not because he’s not talented, but rather he’s such a high impact & low volume ball winner. Think of your favourite crafty half forward over the past decade. Not many become consistent 80+ averaging players. Equally, I don’t think Essendon want to lose him from that forward line, and so his midfield minutes may be minimised, especially if the Bombers go after Josh Dunkley again. With low midfield minutes, his scoring will have a ceiling. 5 of his 16 games have been over 60, it’s not great, but it’s also not horrible. There’s room for him on your keeper list for sure, given the possibilities.

TEN | Elijah Hollands

For many seeing a kid who’s yet to debut inside the top 10 is too much of a reach. And in most scenarios, I’d be right there with you. If you ask any draft watchers of this crop, they’d all tell you that Elijah has the potential to be the clear best player from this group. And had an ACL injury not ruin his season, he might’ve been selected #1. Instead, Hollands is a classy ball user, boasts footy smarts and is damaging inside forward 50 and through the midfielder. He reminds me a lot of Christian Petracca for what it’s worth.

A Final Thought

Every year a few players are unlucky to miss this list, none more so than Lachie Bramble. However, given he wasn’t drafted (rather was an SPP addition), he doesn’t make the 10 on a technicality. However, his speed and class have been so important to the Hawks over the last month. His three round average of 84 is just the beginnings of his potential. He should also pick up defensive eligibility for 2022 based on his current role. The other is Lachie Jones. Injuries have created a frustrating start/stop season for him. But he’s an important part of the Power backline when he’s fit. Getting players in the defensive or forward lines that hold that position across their careers is challenging in keepers. But he looks like a player that will hold it. So he misses my top 10, but still worth having.  
Do you agree or disagree? Who’d be in your top 10? Comment below and let me know.

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Ultimate Footy | Free Agency Pick Ups | Round 19
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Read Time:3 Minute, 27 Second

This week’s list looks at a couple of hard nuts from the Crows, plus a son of a gun Swan whose recent role change could make him a late season breakout candidate.

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BACKS:

Jake Kelly – Adelaide
% owned – 63%
2021 average – 66.4

In his 6 years at AFL level, Kelly’s best fantasy average has been 67, making him an unlikely selection for a fantasy squad. Despite that, Kelly has actually had a decent year thanks in part to Adelaide’s desire to possess the footy in the back half and, of course, the ball being down that end of the ground often.


Kelly’s best scoring asset is his marking, averaging 5 a game this year and taking an equal career high 12 a couple of weeks ago against Essendon. Also in his favour, is his kick to handball ratio as he has opted to kick the ball over twice as many times as he has handballed.


It’s certainly not an exciting pick, but Kelly is averaging 99 from his last two games, and has only scored under 60 four times this year (if you exclude round 1 when he was knocked out in an infamous clash with Patrick Dangerfield).

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FORWARD:

Nick Blakey – Sydney
% owned – 63%
2021 average – 56.5

Some astute fantasy coaches would have had Blakey on their watchlist for season 2021 as the highly touted young Swan had a taste of the midfield in 2020 and was a 3rd year breakout candidate. With the likes of Gulden, Warner and Campbell emerging and starring for Sydney in the early rounds, Blakey struggled to impact as a midfielder and eventually lost his place in the side.


After various stints in the VFL and as the medical sub, Blakey was brought back into the senior 22 a few weeks ago and given a new role, playing off half back. The role change had an instant impact as Blakey recorded season high numbers for disposals and marks (19 and 6) and the Swans had a massive win over the Eagles.


Blakey continued in the same role the next week in another impressive victory over the Bulldogs, recording similar numbers and then again on the weekend in the come from behind win over the Giants.
Sydney are 3 from 3 with Blakey in this role and he is averaging 74 in that time, making him an appealing option for the run home.

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Harry Schoenberg – Adelaide
% owned – 69%
2021 average – 65.2

Since debuting in round 10 last season, Schoenberg has played every game available for the Crows which shows he has taken to the big time well, albeit, playing for a bottom side. Playing forward of the ball with stints in the midfield, his fantasy scores have been reasonable for a second year player averaging 17 disposals but not good enough to be in our sides.

The last two weeks have made me take notice, however, as the future star has added tagging to his skill set. Two weeks ago, Essendon’s Darcy Parish was doing as he pleased against the Crows collecting the footy 16 times in the first half.  Schoenberg was moved onto Parish for the second half and completely shut him down restricting him to just 3 touches in the second half whilst collecting 8 himself.


This role didn’t necessarily mean more midfield time for Schoenberg but was a likely confidence booster as he went on to post his career best score the next week against West Coast scoring 113 thanks to 24 touches and 6 tackles. He is averaging 98 in his last two games and looks set for a big finish to the year.

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Ultimate Footy | Free Agency Pick Ups | Round 17
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Read Time:3 Minute, 47 Second

This week’s list looks at a forgotten Adelaide veteran and a much maligned young Blue for your forward lines plus a couple of Saints, including a disappointing midfielder that has plenty of upside for the run home.

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BACKS:

Jimmy Webster – St.Kilda
% owned – 26%
2021 average – 61.4

Webster has been around for a while now and has at times looked like becoming a fantasy relevant defender but in recent times, injuries have halted his momentum. After a career best season in 2018 where he averaged 79, he sustained a back injury in 2019 that saw him miss half of that year and the entire 2020 season.
He returned in round 1 this year and after being in and out of the side earlier in the year, has now played the last 9 games for an average of 66. His last two games in particular have been solid averaging 86 and with Nick Coffield on the sidelines for a few more weeks, the role looks good for Webster to continue his recent scoring.

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MIDFIELD:

Brad Hill
% owned – 71% (squeezed him in despite being over 70%)
2021 average – 69.3

It has been a challenging second season at St.Kilda for Hill who, much like the club itself, has performed well below expectations. When in full flight, Hill is great to watch and can accumulate possessions quickly and effectively. He does, unfortunately, go missing for long patches in games too often and is vulnerable to a lock down tag.
Delisted by many a fantasy coach, he has looked much better since the abysmal 6 possession game against North Melbourne in round 11. He racked up 30 touches on the weekend in the win against Collingwood and in the last 4 games, is averaging 80 thanks to 24 touches a game making him worth a look as a depth player for your midfield for the run home.

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FORWARD:

Tom Lynch – Adelaide
% owned – 36%
2021 average – 59

Lynch has not been seen at AFL level since the infamous medical sub fiasco against Hawthorn in round 6 when he was named as the sub despite clearly carrying an injury himself. The toe injury that hampered his early season form and made him an odd choice as the sub that day was then operated on and saw Lynch miss the next 9 games.


Known as the link man due to his ability over many years to link the Crows midfield to it’s forward line, Lynch returned in the SANFL on the weekend kicking 3 goals and looking fit. The Crows are crying out for another experienced head up forward at the moment to help out Taylor Walker (who may miss this week with a neck injury) and Lynch is likely to return. At his very best, Lynch is a solid 90 guy and could be a late season masterstroke for your squad.

Paddy Dow
% owned – 35%
2021 average – 47.6

Paddy Dow or Paddy Wow (cringe); that has been the question many have wondered since Carlton drafted him with pick 3 in the 2017 draft. His journey has been covered ad nauseum and he has been unfairly criticised so let’s just focus on recent times. Last week against the Crows, Dow played on ball and probably for the first time, didn’t look out of his depth collecting 20 disposals for the first time this season.

He backed it up on the weekend with another 22 disposals against Fremantle and whilst his fantasy scores of 77 and 67 aren’t huge, it does appear that Dow has found his place in the side. Carlton simply must persevere with Dow in this position because he really does look like a star of the future. With DPP status as a midfielder also, Dow is one to look at it particularly for keeper leagues.

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UltimateFooty | Free Agency Pick Ups | Round 16
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A short and sharp one this week as we approach the home stretch. This week’s list includes a developing side’s new recruit who hasn’t been able to get a regular game plus a Kangaroo veteran back after 3 months on the sidelines.

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BACKS:

Jackson Hately – Adelaide
% oned – 49%
2021 average – 64.5

After joining last year’s wooden spooners in the off season, we had expected to see a lot more of Hately to this point of the season. After leaving GWS for more senior opportunities, Hately has only featured in two AFL games for Adelaide this season as he continues to ply his trade in the SANFL. He laid an impressive 11 tackles across those two games but it wasn’t enough for him to keep his spot in the developing side.

He is averaging 23 disposals and 7 tackles from his 8 matches in the SANFL this season which included an impressive 31 disposal, 8 tackle performance against Sturt a couple of weeks ago. Although he was quiet on the weekend, the injury to Rory Sloane opens the door for Hately’s return to the AFL side and I expect him to make the most of his chance this time.

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MIDFIELD:

Jared Polec – North Melbourne
% owned – 51%
2021 average – 58.3

Polec has been a somewhat polarising figure since his high profile move from Port Adelaide at the end of the 2018 season. He played every game in his first season at North Melbourne (averaging a neat 88.2) but found himself omitted on multiple occasion last year despite regularly being amongst the team’s highest ball-winners. He still managed to average 71.2 (89 adjusted) from 13 matches.

A new coach for season 2021 suggested Polec would be given every chance to recapture his best form this year but he was struck down by a serious hamstring injury in round 3 which also skewed his average (he was averaging 74.5 from his first two games). After 3 months on the sidelines, Polec returned in the VFL on the weekend with 28 disposals and should return to the senior line up this week.

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FORWARD:

Sam Flanders – Gold Coast
% owned – 36%
2021 average – 62.3

In just his second season, Flanders has more than held his own at AFL level well, quietly putting together a solid season playing as a small forward with spurts in the midfield. He isn’t accumulating big disposal numbers just yet with the 20 against North Melbourne the highest he has tallied in a game but in every game he has avoided being a sub, he has laid 2 or more tackles (including 5 tackles three times). One for the future, but with his DPP status, is certainly worth keeping an eye on for the run home.

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