It was on the cards the moment Josh Dunkley was subbed out last week against Richmond. But on Tuesday afternoon, the Lions confirmed that their star recruit would miss the battle against the Eagles due to a calf injury. The issue is the club haven’t ruled out him missing multiple weeks, which has left coaches in the fantasy community wondering what to do with Josh Dunkley.
Whenever someone asks me about their AFLFantasy, SuperCoach or AFL DreamTeam side, I ask them, ‘What’s your focus?’ No point in me shelling out advice when I don’t understand the coach and their objective. So, before you decide on how you’re handling the absence of Josh, you need to clarify for yourself the focus of your fantasy side. Is it overall rankings, or is it league? The answer tells me everything I need to know.
If your focus is on the league finals, safely in finals contention, and have some relatively kind fixtures, then fielding the likes of Ryan Maric for 1-2 weeks will do little to dent your season. After all, you’ll want Dunkley on your side come finals. So in this scenario, holding Josh is favourable and likely the right play. Conversely, if you’re battling to scrape into finals and have to win over the next two weeks, trading out of Dunkley to maximise scoring on the field is more optimal and might get you back into your league finals.
Coaches playing for ultimately the highest ranking possible are much more inclined to prioritise trading out of Josh than those with a league focus. Within a rankings focus, are you in contention to win it all? Do you need to minimise the damage of a certain premium against you? Or are you needing to create squad separation? It doesn’t mean rankings focus = trade, but rather it helps provide the decision framework.
Nobody wants to see a player injured, but what it does do is create opportunity. Dunkley is among the highest-owned players in the formats, and we see similar teams amongst a big portion of the top 100-1000. As a result, the opportunity to create some differentiation through how people navigate the Dunkley dilemma can only be a good thing for the fantasy community. That differentiation can come through many pathways that we’ll unpack in this article.
So before you read further, what’s your focus? Leagues or Ranks? Where are you placed, and how can you maximise this opportunity for your benefit?
What’s your format?
The focus isn’t the only variable. The format you play is another key component. The Coaches Panel gives insights for SuperCoach, AFLFantasy, DreamTeam & drafts, so giving universal ‘advice’ is dangerous and largely unhelpful. In AFLFantasy, where you have two trades a week, use or lose, it’s a higher percentage play to trade him than hold him. While in SuperCoach and DreamTeam, valuing the limited few trades you have remaining starts to add another layer of strategy to the game.
Choosing to hold Dunkley in these formats is much more warranted universally as a play, given that each trade has an increasingly higher value to your team the deeper the season goes. While a good play, some coaches have been burnt badly in 2023 with holding a premium. They are different players and different injuries, but those who have held Clayton Oliver will have an understandable scepticism that Dunkley will play next week. If you’ve held Oliver this long and rankings are your focus, it’s safe to assume your dream of winning it all has had its tires slashed.
You may own Dunkley in multiple formats. You’ll need to apply multiple different tactics and approaches. The beauty of these games is that they all require a different level of strategy.
Do you have cover?
It will be common for coaches to have little to no bench depth in the forward lines or the ability to utilise DPP and flip Dunkley into the midfield. Plenty of fantasy sides are running benches that feature a combination of these red dots in the midfield and forward lines. Kai Lohmann, Matt Roberts, Alwyn Davey Jnr, Sam Sturt, Harry Sharp, Charlie Constable, Jake Buller, Josh Fahey and Blake Drury. If you have squad depth, trading Dunkley becomes a forced move except for coaches playing for leagues who can afford to drop the results over the next 1-2 weeks.
Can you loop Dunkley?
The Thursday evening clash this week is the Swans taking on the Tigers. For a high volume of coaches, they own Angus Sheldrick, with many having the luxury of having him as a bench option banking late-season coin. Over the last three weeks, he’s been averaging 95 in all formats. The matchup is a positive matchup for inside midfielders and general forwards, so it’s certainly within the realms of probability that Angus can get within that scoring range again.
The benefit of playing a loophole is it gives you a look at banking some scoring while being able to stash an asset that you’ll want to have in your team. Additionally, it enables you to move ahead with your preferred trading cadence and create the moves you want. So while Angus might not score comparable to Dunkley’s sideways trade option, playing the loop effectively means the trading moves in totality alongside looping him on the field does have you in an overall comparable if not stronger position.
Key in this strategy, whether it is Angus or another loop option, is to define the cut-off for scoring for your team. Additionally, when at the weekend, you need to make that trade. Take all emotion and pressure out of choice by making the marker decisions now. It’s amazing how you can see the game when you give yourself time and space.
Securing a topliner?
As the season has passed, there’s a high chance that at least one premium has given you a headache not owning them. The opportunity is now presented for you to be able to secure them. Whether that has been Tim English, Marcus Bontempelli, Jordan Dawson or any top-tier scorers, you can easily remove the headache and see Josh as the ticket to pain relief. Nobody likes injuries, but sometimes they create an opportunity for you to do something you’d previously been struggling to figure out how to do.
Creating Separation
You will only win your league or the overall rankings with some form of separation from the pack. With Josh Dunkley, one of the most highly owned players, you could turn him into the unique player that separates your side from the pack.
In SuperCoach, Adam Cerra has averaged 122 over the past five weeks and is in just 3.1% of teams. My boy Josh Kelly also averaged north of 120 in the previous five weeks and at 121.6. Even more unique is Luke Parker at 1%. He’s going at 119 in the previous five games and 127 in the last three.
If it’s a forward replacement you need, Caleb Daniel is in 6.6% of sides and has scored five tons in his last six outings. In addition, less than one per cent own him in the top 1% of teams. Ben Keays is in 6.3% of teams overall but is in 16% of the top 1% despite him averaging more than Zak Butters over the past month.
For AFLFantasy, I know Brad Crouch looks appealing averaging 112 in the last five and is owned at 13%. But he’s owned by 71% of the top 100. That’s not going to create separation. So regardless of what he does, if separation is the focus, he won’t do it. Sam Walsh is in just 3% of teams in the top 100 and 8.2% overall. He’s far from his best at the moment, but from round 19 onwards, he has an amazing run with matches against West Coast, Collingwood, St Kilda and Melbourne—all favourable matchups. Tom Mitchell is also in just 4% of teams in the top 100, and one coach owns Josh Kelly.
Jack Macrae is a play if it’s a forward that you need. While owned by 13% overall, nobody in the top 100 YET has him. That’ll change this week. Likely too for Caleb Daniel; he also is lowly owned in the top 1,000.
Use the resources created by DFS Australia to help you find the right option for your side and price point.
Improving the squad overall
Much has been made about the challenges of cash generation in 2023. As we’ve discussed on the podcast multiple times, the issue isn’t cash generation but rather that coaches must ‘pay up’ for better money-makers. The absence of Dunkley this week means coaches can look at creative ways of opening up their salary capacity to make a second trade alongside this and improve their teams’ performance.
For example, sake in AFLFantasy. Let’s assume you have 0 dollars in the bank. Let’s say Hayden Young is your worst on-field prospect. By moving Josh Dunkley down to Ben Keays or Harry Sheezel, you make $200,000+. That’s more than enough to get Hayden up to Sam Docherty. You could also through that $200k on top of Matt Johnson and turn him into Callum Mills.
It’s similar in SuperCoach; you make almost $200,000 dropping all the way down to Stephen Coniglio or Ben Keays, and over $300k if you need the cash by getting Liam Henry, who has a three-week average of 95. That extra $ can help you grab any of Harry Himmelberg, Callum Mills, Christian Salem, Patrick Dangerfield and Jacke Steele of any dead cow you have on a specific line.
Before rounds 6, 12 and 18, the gang at Champion Data add some new DPP into the game. After the round, the first list of names and positions will be released. Historically, players need at least 35% to be considered for a new position allocation and at least four games played. So let’s see which players are locked, close or have no chance of getting DPP.
Have no fear. Jayden Short’s DPP is here! Heading into the Friday night clash against Brisbane, he was tracking at 50% of the time in defence, according to Champion Data. His night ended early in the second quarter with a hamstring injury. He’ll likely miss the following three weeks as a minimum. The injury does have a silver lining. Given he’s already played enough games to be eligible for DPP, it means he can’t see a data change, so lock Jayden in as a backline buy.
Even though you can’t buy him when injured, he’s a genuine play upon his return. I mentioned the Tigers upcoming fixture last week when looking at some upgrade targets. Assuming he’s back in round 19, he’d come up against Hawthorn, Melbourne & Western Bulldogs. That’s a nice run of opponents, and Jayden is likely to have the highest three-round average of all defenders during this stretch.
Luke Shuey
Even if Luke Shuey gets DPP, trading into him will only be for some. It may not be for anyone, but the possible positional allocation could be in play. Despite the challenges of the Eagles availability, when Shuey has been playing, he’s spent more time playing off the ball and across the backline. This has been primarily to provide some support, experience and leadership to what, at times, has been an incredibly young and inexperienced defensive group.
Having to be injected back into the centre bounces last week to cover the absence of Tim Kelly might mean that the Eagles premiership hero might see a dint in his defensive half %. But to the naked eye, he’s a consideration to get a change of status. The only reason you are jumping on him should the DEF status arrive is that you believe he and the Eagles will try to stay in games longer by denying the opposition the ball by playing a more possession-heavy football game. If that happens, then there’s a world I could see some coaches chasing the pack of leaders and trading into him. It’s an AFLFantasy style trade where he’s priced under $700k but is coming off the back of two consecutive 100s.
Traditionally, players gaining MID status are some of the least relevant gains because they need to create a pathway to a higher scoring avenue within your 22. However, what the addition of midfield status does is create versatility and flexibility across your classic and draft sides. Over the past six weeks, we’ve used Jack in various roles, and it is linked to two key variables. First, the opposition matchup. Second, Jack Steele’s capacity to get around the ground and impact.
Over the past five weeks, we’ve seen Sinclair go from 0% attendance at a centre bounce and play exclusively half back to 70% CBA’s and everything in between. It will come down to his role and time in the position this week against Melbourne. Plenty will log in Sunday on DFS to see the Saints CBA data.
Nick Daicos
I’ll get to the DPP stuff in a second, but over a week ago, I attended the MCG to watch my Crows play the Magpies. Putting the result aside (sigh), I walked away from that game amazed at what Nick Daicos does, not just with the ball, but without. Have you ever wondered, ‘How does he get that much space?’ Or dared to utter that he’s just an ‘outside junk ball user.’ Then you have to get to a game to watch him play. His workrate off the ball, combined with his elite footy IQ and his teammates desire to include their best ball user, combines for the reasons why he gets so much footy the way and where he does.
Since round eleven, there’s been a clear shift to play Nick higher up the ground. In the ten games prior, he’d only attended two games over 40%; since then, he hasn’t attended under 40% and has a season-high 81% against the Crows at the G. Like all players in the mix gaining MID, it shouldn’t add to your scoring profile. Still, it might save you a trade-in classic or a player delisting in your draft squad later in the year.
Dan Houston
How good was that kick after the siren?! Amazing. OK, not that I have officially annoyed the entire Essendon fan base; let’s discuss Dan Houston. The Port Adelaide halfback flanker and his drive and daring use of the ball are one of the keys behind their season form. Dan’s still seeing plenty of time across the back half, but Port and trying to get his elite ball use higher up the ground.
Looking at CBA data will tell you nothing, as Houston is being used more along the wing than at centre bounces. Between 2021-2022 Dan averaged just three inside ’50s, but in 2023 it’s up to five per game. He’s not certain to gain it, but it could provide some helpful squad versatility for his owners in classic and draft over the coming months.
Sam Docherty
Nobody should be surprised to see Sam Docherty‘s name in the DPP conversation. As the season has progressed, the reliable Blues defender has gradually seen an increase in his midfield presence. According to champion data, he’s currently spending 42% of his time in the midfield, and barring a heavy game this weekend against Freo, I expect him to be a DEF/MID within the week.
Lock this one up and throw away the key. That was my statement regarding Sam Walsh at his FWD status addition heading into round 12. Sadly, in the critical round 11 matchup, Michael Voss played him 57% as a centre bounce midfielder and the remainder as a wingman, effectively killing the fantasy footy community’s dream of him as a MID/FWD. However, he didn’t attend over 40% of CBAs in the next two weeks. He would’ve gained MID/FWD if that had happened in round eleven. All of a sudden, I got a small glimpse at the heartbreak following Carlton has created its supporters.
Heading into his round 16 matchups, Champion Data had him allocated as playing 36.8% FWD. Post Hawthorn match, it moved to 35%; that’s right on the cutoff line. Safe to say his DPP hopes will all be linked to how he plays Sunday afternoon against Fremantle.
Max Gawn
The possible gain of forward status from either Max Gawn or Brodie Grundy was telegraphed all preseason due to the Demons two headed ruck monsters. To date, Max has become the one that Melbourne has used more forward, with Brodie taking the lead ruck role. Currently, the Demons skipper is sitting right on the 34% threshold. If Gawn can tip this percentage every so marginally for one more week will get Gawn as an RUC/FWD. Dear Simon Goodwin, you play St Kilda this week; you must stretch the defence and let Big Max do this.
This DPP could take on additional significance in round 16; Darcy Cameron was unpredictably given a weird role, resulting in his season-low score. With many trusting in ‘DC’ to get them through the year for coverage and squad depth, Max’s DPP gain looms as a potential ‘upgrade’ on those using a cover RUC/FWD DPP strategy.
Deven Robertson
Over the past month on our podcasts, fellow co-founder Rids has been one of the few voices in the community championing the importance of bench hygiene over the year’s final months. In a rush to ‘complete’ your teams, many teams have done it at the cost of the bench depth, both in playable options and cash generation. Why am I mentioning it here? Because Deven Robertson is highly likely to gain FWD status and create not just a handy loop between MID/FWD but a stronger bench coverage in the forward line.
The Lions youngster is fighting the fight to get more midfield time, but at the moment is plying his trade, creating pressure and presence floating between the midfield and forward lines. The likely addition of Dev means coaches currently running with the likes of Lohmann, Roberts, Drury, Davey etc., will finally get some small reprieve.
The multi-bye rounds are over. Our last six teams with no more scheduled rest for the remainder of the season. Here’s a club-by-club breakdown of potential upgrade targets who have had their bye-round.
Sam Walsh couldn’t have started 2023 any better. After returning from a preseason injury in round five against the Crows, Walsh averaged 114 in AFLFantasy and 110 in SuperCoach over his first seven games. Since then, it could have been better. An average of 91 in SuperCoach and 76 in AFLFantasy over the past three is miles away from his scoring potential and what people who paid for him expect. History would tell us his normative scoring is closer to his first seven than his past three games. If you trade into him this week, it’s because you believe two things. Firstly, the bye came at the right time for him to freshen up physically. Second, positionally Carlton will settle the midfield mix back and allow Walsh to be more settled. There’s the undoubted upside of scoring at his price point, but it doesn’t come without risk.
Sam Docherty is the kind of player that, depending on the format you play, will determine how keen you are to own them. In AFLFantasy, he’s a clear topline premium, with only Jordan Dawson, Nick Daicos and James Sicily the only other defenders averaging 100. Currently, he’s ranked fourth for averages (106) for the season and has only one score below 94 in his past eight games. While in SuperCoach, he’s ranked 10th for averages for the season and 21st on a three-round average amongst all defenders. Is he a play in SuperCoach? Obviously, yes! But he’s not as essential in SuperCoach as he is in AFLFantasy. A genuine option in all game formats but more important in AF/DT.
Since round six, Adam Cerra has three AFLFantasy scores over 130 and three other tons over 110. While in SuperCoach, it’s four tons over 130, two additional over 120 and just one score under 96. From a fantasy perspective, he’s starting to deliver on the top end of his scoring potential more consistently. He’s no longer presenting value, given he’s over $600k in SuperCoach and is starting to push towards the high 800s in AFLFantasy. But that’s not the reason some will consider him. It’s his history of big 130+ scores and his low ownership percentage.
If those are your two lead markers for targets, then Adam needs to be in consideration. Over the next six weeks, matches against Hawthorn, West Coast & St Kilda are favourable matchups. However, I have one warning for coaches to consider. That being the Carlton midfield mix. Since round six, we’ve seen multiple variations of how the Blues split that midfield mix-up and some weeks, we see Matt Kennedy get the bump; the next week, it’s George Hewett and another, it’s Sam Walsh. While Adam has been one of the least affected, it’s still hit him. He was pushed into the backline in round nine against the Bulldogs and attended just 17% of centre bounces. By the way, in that game, he scored 62 in AFLFantasy and 79 in SuperCoach. I don’t have the confidence that his role will always hold over the next few months, but if you do, he’s a consideration.
Statesmen from The Draft Doctors / POD POD have been one of the biggest champions for fading players are their Brownlow year. I deep-dived into it when including Patrick Cripps in this year’s preseason edition of the 50 most relevant. He’s fallen approximately 14 points per game from his 2022 averages, and except for his round fourteen ton against the Suns, you’ve got to go back to round seven for his last triple-digit score. I get the appeal; he’s cheap and historically proven. His selection of him may pay off, but in its current form, there’s nothing more than ‘history’ being the reason. Can he go 110 over the final nine weeks? Potentially, but trading into him this week as much as he presents value is a trust fall.
Adam Saad is only an option if you believe the following. Carlton turn the form corner and win plenty of games off the bye. Why? Because Adam, almost more than any other Blue, has his positive scoring linked to the Blue’s win/loss record. 2023 when they win, he averages 105.2 in SuperCoach and 86.8 in AFLFantasy. That’s an increase of over 20 points per game in all formats. The only format I consider is in SuperCoach, but I’d rather own an Elliot Yeo or a Harry Himmelberg over Adam.
Can Harry Himmelberg do it again? In 2022 he was a fantasy revelation when he was moved back mid-way through the year. Over the past few weeks, the coaching staff have thrown him back into the defensive unit, and it’s no surprise that his scoring trend has started to grow again. The club love him in this role; he’s taking kick-ins, and the defensive unit is happy to play through him out of defence.
Over the last three games, he’s averaging 85 in AFLFantasy and 88 in SuperCoach, and he’s done it with less than favourable matchups. In the next two weeks, his Giants play Melbourne and Hawthorn, which historically have been favourable for players in his position. He might not be someone that can rival the topline defenders and average 100+ over the final few months, but he’s got the scoring to get close.
Longtime followers and fans of The Coaches Panel will be all too familiar with my love for Josh Kelly as a fantasy football prospect. In the past five games alone, he’s got a SuperCoach average of 120 and 108.6 in AFLFantasy. But that isn’t just cherry-picking numbers. Josh is having his best season since 2019. He’s currently averaging 107 in AFLFantasy (ranked 16th overall) and 115.8 in SuperCoach(ranked 12th overall). With many now off owning him due to a midseason soft tissue injury, his ownership numbers are insanely low.
I know some will see his injury history as a reason to fade him, but the reality is that the tag of being ‘injury prone’ is now an outdated claim. Before this year, he’d missed only two games in two years and of the four games he’s missed this year, own was a concussion and the other a hamstring. Yes, he’s missed due to an injury, but so have dozens of other highly relevant premiums. So if you’re ruling him out because he’s missed too many games this year, be consistent and do the same with others. Don’t just pick and choose a narrative that suits your bias. If you don’t want him, that’s fine, but don’t use injury as the reason.
We’ve got a clear topline top six premium forward this year. Josh Dunkley, Tim Taranto, Errol Gulden, Connor Rozee, Zac Butters and former GWS skipper Stephen Coniglio. Only a few own all six; in fact, F6 is seeing some great variables with the likes of Ben Keays, Darcy Cameron and Jack Macrae. Cogs is a target if you need to prevent his scoring from hurting you. It’s quite the defensive play, but for certain teams in contention, that might be the right option for you. He’s not unique to own, far from it, so if separation is the aim, or if you’re chasing the ranking leaders, Stephen is not for you.
Tom Green has been one of the best starting squad buys of the year. He’s jumped approximately 20 points per game from his price at the starting point and is currently averaging 110.5 in AFLFantasy (10th overall) & 107.1 (29th) in SuperCoach. For non-owners, the only reason you trade into him from here is you believe he’s averaging 115+ on the run home; otherwise, your best to look for a player with a greater scoring ceiling or someone with significantly more value.
It’s been a few seasons since Lachie Whitfield scored regularly over 100 and was one of the most dominant premiums in the game. But he’s shown us glimpses that his scoring power is still available. This year in AFLFantasy, he’s posted four tons, including a 130 and has yet to drop his scoring under 90 in the past month. For SuperCoach, his scoring is more volatile, but there’s still just one score under 84 and three tons in the past eight weeks alone. He might not be banging the door down with his scoring this year, but even if he holds his current scoring trend, he’s got the history over his career that’d give coaches confidence that a few big scores are still within his capacity in 2023. Fade on him this week anyway due to a suspension.
For whatever reason, it’s never quite clicked together for a full season for Jy Simpkin. The Kangaroos skipper has shown his scoring pedigree in patches but only for part of the season. Thankfully, we don’t need him to do it for 20+ games but rather 8-9. For what it’s worth last year post-bye, he averaged 102 in AFLFantasy and 98 in SuperCoach and scored six tons across the formats. He’s cheap, but most coaches would rather consider Callum Mills, who’s priced in the same range.
Ask anyone who has owned Jack Ziebell this year, and they’ll tell you two things. The first is that on his day, he can be the top-scoring player of the round. For example, in round eight, he scored a monster 168 in AFLFantasy & 172 in SuperCoach. The other thing past owners this year will tell you is that he can go missing in games for long periods for seemingly no reason. Using AFLFantasy scoring as an example, he was on 48 points in round fourteen at halftime. By the game’s close, he managed 11 points, including a 0 in the third term. The dropping of Aaron Hall has shown that under Brett Ratten, they’re happy to go even further ‘ALL IN’ on the rebuild, so it wouldn’t shock me if a similar thing happens to Jack as the season goes on. Let’s put it this way: Jack’s current owners are looking to get off him; that alone should be a giant flag for those looking to jump on. A big no for me to target Ziebell as a trade-in option.
If you’ve held Harry Sheezel and playing him at either D6/F6, that’s fine. I’ll be fascinated to see how North Melbourne uses him in the season’s back half. Development for the young Roos is the top priority, so does the coaching staff hold him at half-back? Or do they experiment with more forward-of-centre positioning through the midfield and half-forward? I’m convinced they try a few things and see what it does. After all, they’ve got nothing to lose.
Did you start 2023 with LukeDavies-Uniacke on your side? It feels like an eternity ago, but LDU ran hot over the first three weeks. He posted scores of 108, 123 & 91 in AFLFantasy and 143, 155 & 102 in SuperCoach. It was this time last year that we saw the scoring of Luke move from proven to potential, so to suggest he’s not got the capacity to go 105+ over the next few months is nonsense. The big hesitation is around his availability. The club is confident he’ll be available to return from his hamstring injury this weekend. If your season is shot and you want to own players you enjoy watching, LDU is the ultimate consideration.
Have you got a gap at F6 currently on your side? And are you limited on cash to outlay? Then Tarryn Thomas might be a tempting option. Priced at $543,000 in AFLFantasy and $343,800 in SuperCoach, he’s shown in moments this year and over the previous few years that he can deliver regular 90+ scores. It’s not for the fainthearted, given the multiple games missed through ‘disciplinary’ reasons this year. But if you are up for a rollercoaster, then ‘TT’ can be in the mix.
So much of the fantasy football population already own Connor Rozee. The Port Adelaide star was one of the most highly-owned players in starting squads, and thankfully, he delivered for us in 2023. Many of our readers have not opted against him. And if you have, it’s best to maintain the uniqueness and go against him.
Undoubtedly, one of the selections of the year is Zak Butters. If you traded into him anywhere between rounds 5-7, then you’ve received the full benefit of his scoring at his cheapest price point. He’s owned by 85% of the top 100 in AFLFantasy and 28% of the top 1% of SuperCoach sides. So if you’re looking at him as a separator from the top teams, he’s unlikely to be it. Additionally, you are now paying top dollar for him. Those aren’t reasons in isolation to fade him, but if your hoping for him as a surge past the pack play, then going against him and looking for the ‘next Butters’ value might be a better play.
We’re just two weeks away from the final addition of DPPs for the season, and you can bank on Jayden Short getting defensive status. He’s currently sitting at 50% as a defender, and with the threshold of 35%, he’s certain to become a DEF/MID in a fortnight. While you could trade into him now, I’d rather wait for two weeks. Not just for the DPP to pop but more due to Tigers fixture. This round and next, they play Brisbane and Sydney. However, the four games post are West Coast, Hawthorn, Melbourne & Western Bulldogs. During that month of footy, there’s a world where I can see Jayden being the #1 scoring defender. A genuine target now, but an absolute must consider in two weeks.
Dustin Martin has the historical pedigree and has shown over the past few weeks under the new coaching regime that he’s back in the middle and back-scoring relatively well. Could you trade into him, hoping he goes 95-plus for the remainder of the season? Of course! But I’d rather wait a few weeks. Not just because of the favourable fixture listed above, but because I want to see under the new coach does Dusty have this more prominent midfield role when both Dion Presita and Jacob Hopper are in the team alongside Tim Taranto, Trent Cotchin & Shai Bolton.
Much like Connor Rozee listed above, I will gloss over Tim Taranto. Not because he’s not worth trading into or highlighting. But rather, his ownership percentage is so high I doubt many of the CP community have gone without him.
Have you been playing any form of fantasy football for more than just this season? Then you’ll be very familiar with the scoring dominance that Marcus Bontempelli has shown previously. Bont, in 2023 has taken his already amazing game to another level. He’s currently ranked first in SuperCoach for total points and averages, and in AFLFantasy; he’s ranked fourth by total points and fifth by average. Like everything at this season stage, it’s all team, focus and format dependant. It’s a significant investment at his price point, so trading into him means you want to neutralize his scoring against you rather than creating separation.
In SuperCoach, it’s going to be very hard to win your league or the overall game without owning him is going to be tough. Thirteen tons, nine of them over 120 and four above 145. That’s some incredible ceiling and consistency. In AFLFantasy, I’d be more open to going against him (at least for the next month) because his consistency rather than the ceiling has made him such a weapon. Ten tons from his fourteen games is excellent, but he’s only had three games over 120. To be clear, I don’t think trading into Bont is a bad trade, rather highlighting that for one million dollars, you might be able to get a comparable performer for a few weeks at a lower price point.
The Western Bulldogs coaching staff have flipped Caleb Daniel around various positions from his more traditional halfback into a centre bounce midfield role, the wing and also as a half-froward which resulted in a gaining of FWD status at round six. He’s currently averaging a career-high 104 in SuperCoach and 97 in AFLFantasy. Even more impressive is that after the first six rounds of the year, he averaged 86 across the formats. So since round seven, he’s gone at 107.75 in AFLFantasy and 117.5 in SuperCoach over the past eight weeks. This hot scoring trend and relatively low ownership mean he could still be an upgrade target despite a hefty price tag.
Like Caleb, Bailey Dale had a slow start to the 2023 season, with multiple sub-60 scores over the first six weeks. However, in the past six games, he’s gone at 103 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 106 in SuperCoach. That scoring is more reflective of what his season was in 2022, where he averaged 90 in AFLFantasy and 102 in SuperCoach. He’s not quite the value he was a month ago, but he’s still a premium play for those looking to get some high scoring and a slightly discounted rate.
There was a period this year when Bailey Smith was rightly viewed as a premium. Between rounds 7-10, he averaged 104.5 in AFLFantasy & 108.75 in SuperCoach. However, since then, he has yet to be able to raise the ton. Positionally he’s seen high volatility this year from play half forward, wing and inside midfield. It’s a risky play to buy stocks to jump on your doing it blindly in the hope that he can return to the scoring from that middle portion of the year. It could be an inspired selection if it pays off. Equally, by doing so, you can be frustrated with a guy that’s constantly close but never really quite there.
Over the final nine weeks of the season, there are two things coaches chasing the top-ranked teams are looking for. Players that have both low ownership and a proven ceiling of scoring. Adam Treloar must be on your radar if you are in the marketfor one player with both. He’s averaging 117 in AFLFantasy and 131.7 in SuperCoach over his past three. He’s also owned by just 1% of teams across the formats. I have zero role concerns but plenty of injury ones. Having missed fourteen games over the past 2 1/2 seasons, nobody should be shocked if another soft tissue injury occurs. His upside when on the park shows that he can match it with the best premiums this year. Your appetite for risk needs to be high, but the payoff could be equally as big.
I was bullish on Jackson Macrae this preseason. So much so that I stated he was the second most relevant player for fantasy footy in 2023. Sadly, Macrae’s not reached the heights I’d hoped, but he’s still been a solid pick, especially considering he’s now available as a MID/FWD. From his fourteen games, he’s scored nine SuperCoach tons, six in AFLFantasy and across all formats, and hasn’t scored under 80 all year. His most recent form is promising, with four tons across his last five and some of his highest ceiling games from the year.
He’s been stronger this season in SuperCoach than AFLFantasy, but he’s as likely as anyone to average safely north of 100 over the final nine games. He’s had more positional volatility this year than many would like, but one thing we know about the Bulldogs is once they find a winning rhythm, they hold players in that position. Let’s hope that Jack’s back in his fantasy-friendly role alongside it.
Do you need a premium ruck? The vast majority of coaches have a set ruck division. So many won’t need to look at trading into Tim English. But targeting Tim is still play for those running Darcy Cameron at R2. He’s not cheap, but he’s been worth every cent. If not English, it’s only Briggs that’s a play.
One of the most underrated starting squad selections this year was Tom Liberatore. ‘Libba’ Is averaging 104.6 for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and has scored more points than the more highly owned Lachie Neale. For SuperCoach, he’s averaging 117.7 and has scored the 14th most points in the season. His ownership is scarily low, and as seen this year, his scoring has increased. A genuine candidate for a trade target. Not just because of his scoring but because he has no ‘Bevo’ positional volatility. He is firmly established at centre bounces alongside Marcus Bontempelli and Tim English.
Another week of the multi-bye rounds is over. We now have another six teams with no more scheduled rests for the remainder of the season. Here’s a club-by-club breakdown of potential upgrade targets who have had their bye-round.
Over recent weeks I’ve highlighted that defenders are the line this year where we’ll see some of the greatest variations of combinations. With only a handful of clear topline options, we’ll see great diversity over the final ten games of the season. One of the clear best backs we have is Crows skipper JordanDawson. He’s scored ten tons in the past eleven games in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, while in SuperCoach, he’s given us three scores of 150 or over since round four and has a seasonal average of 115.
Nick Daicos and Jordanhave been the best premium defender to own this year. The longer you’ve owned him, the better your seasonal rank. If you are trading into him this week, it’s for a few reasons. First, you are sick of coming up against him in your rank/league battles and want to negate his scoring impact against you. The other is your trading into him because you believe the scoring trend of the year will continue, and you want the best possible players in your team.
All preseason one of the biggest dilemmas of preseason squads was about whether or not they were paying for Rory Laird as a starting squad target or hoping to be able to jag him at a cheaper price point during the year. Thankfully, those who ran the Gauntlet against him worked for the most part in your favour. A few niggly injuries and a bizarre round-one score meant he’d rewarded non-owners with some significant value.
That’s all in the past, as he’s averaging 113 in AFLFantasy and 125 in SuperCoach over the past five games. If you still need to own him, the time is almost out for you to capitalise on getting him. It’s not unique. But if you want someone likely a top-tier midfield premium to bring into your side, then Rory is a serious must-consider.
Round fifteen is filled with pain, especially in the forward lines. It’s why when a forward plays in round fifteen with a proven historical performance like Ben Keays, it’s no wonder the community is seriously considering it. That interest was only further increased when he moved back into the midfield, and in the past three weeks, he’s averaging 110 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 108 in SuperCoach.
On the surface, it looks like a value play this week, and it is. However, the only flag I’ll raise is that I fully expect him to tag Nick Daicos this week. That could see him spending his time across the half-forward flank this week. Will that impact his scoring? Perhaps. An interesting side note is that Nick’s midfield minutes gradually increase as the season progresses. Keays could still see plenty of midfield time. There is some obvious risk in selecting him, but he’s priced at such a level that means any risk of having the scoring failure has been minimised.
The ownership percentage of Nick Daicos is insane. If you don’t own him, the damage has already been done. You should keep going without him, as you will likely gain nothing by neutralising his scoring now.
Over the past five weeks, Tom Mitchell has scored four tons in AFLFantasy, three of which have been above 120, and he is currently going at an average of 112.6. While over in SuperCoach, he’s scored seven tons in the past nine matches and is coming off the back of a 127 & 132. The volume of ball winning for the fantasy ‘Pig’ is different from his peak, but his impact on the game is arguably just as big. If you can’t get up to the big dog midfielders, then I am okay taking the haircut and getting on Tom in any format.
On our most recent podcast, fellow panellist Rids said that in SuperCoach this week, Darcy Cameron is the #1 trade-in target. I agree, and you could build a case he’s not far off the mark in AFLFantasy or DreamTeam, either. He still presents extreme value, and along with his RUC/FWD status to provide coverage across the remaining season, he’s got the potential to be the most valuable trade inclusion you make all season. Over the past 18 months, he’s shown he can deliver a premium scoring north of 100 most weeks, and for me, he’s one of the players coaches should have targeted as an inclusion this week.
I’ll be clear, this next one is an AFLFantasy play only, and it’s only for a two-week window. With no Jordan De Goey, we should see a bump in scoring and opportunities for Jack Crisp. At $669,000, the price tag is right. He’s coming off a 131 against the Demons and has a breakeven 45. Over the next fortnight, It wouldn’t shock me to see him average 100-105 and make another $80k plus. He may be your pathway to trading into Clayton Oliver. It’s not for everyone, but it is one to ponder.
Before an injury, Darcy Parish was having yet another strong season. He was averaging 107 across the formats and was reminding the entire fantasy community of his premium scoring pedigree. It’s been six weeks since we’ve seen him play, but the club have confirmed that Parish is right to play this week. It’d take a brave coach to pick him up during the first week off the back from injury, but sometimes you need to make brave moves to get your team into the places you need. He’s averaged over 100 in all formats for three years. My main flag with trading into Darcy isn’t about the recent injury history but rather the Bombers upcoming fixture. They play some of the hardest teams for midfielders to score against. Over the next month, they play Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Adelaide and Geelong. If trading for a unique premium is your top priority, then Darcy’s an option.
Over the past five weeks, only three players have averaged more than 120 in all formats. Tim Taranto, Marcus Bontempelli and Zach Merrett. The Essendon skipper and his selection in fantasy teams of all formats has been inspired. But trading into him now isn’t something I could advocate for. Firstly, your paying ‘overs for him. He’s currently the third most expensive player in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and tenth in SuperCoach. Historically he’s scoring at his peak. In addition, he’s already highly owned by those at the top of the tree, meaning not only are you spending a large portion of your salary cap on getting him, but you’re also doing it to create no differentiation from the ranking leaders. And lastly, the upcoming fixture. Without James Aish to tag or Dylan Shiel, who’s being managed, Fremantle should help. But after that, it matches Port Adelaide, Adelaide and Geelong. I wouldn’t say I like the fixtures. With all these elements around, it’s a solid pass for me.
Mason Redman is considered a defender target if the scoring ceiling is the primary objective. He can score with the best option available when he’s been freed up to attack and does not have to be a lockdown back. Already this year, he’s posted multiple 120+ scores across the format and between rounds 9-11, he scored a trio of tons and averaged 113 in AFLFantasy and 127 for SuperCoach. It’s got some risk associated, given his scoring is matchup dependent, but as I said, if you’re looking for a risky play that could have some massive ceiling upside, then Reddog is a play.
Similarly, Jordan Ridley has shown he can score as a premium defender over the past few years. He’s been a solid pick since returning from his concussion-affected game in round eight. In AFLFantasy, he’s posted a 127, 95, 86 & 86. Those are decent, but SuperCoach has always been a stronger scorer. In the same four weeks, he went 122, 130, 102 & 108. At just over $500k, he’s a genuine consideration.
Like his skipper, Nic Martin had been on fire heading into the bye-round. In AFLFantasy, he’d scored four consecutive tons and is priced at under $800k would still create some appeal for coaches. Not to take anything away from Nic and his scoring, but he delivered these tons against Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne & Carlton. They have four of the better matchups for outside midfielders this year. While I believe he could still be good from here, the fixture was a significant factor in his scoring bump, and as noted already a few times in this Essendon piece, the next month isn’t that kind. Trading into him feels like you’re being driven more by the scores you missed than the ones he’ll generate from here on.
Let me be clear, the time to have purchased ownership stocks of Will Day was in the first few weeks of the year, not now. That’s not because his scoring power or role is less diminished, but what are you hoping to gain by doing so? He’s far from unique, and his scoring, as solid as it’s been, has yet to place him clearly as a top-ten defender for the remainder of the season. So to hold, absolutely a play. To trade into him? You have better options available this week and next, both from a price point and scoring capacity.
I’m not a fan of trading into Dylan Moore. That’s not a knock on Dyl, but rather the reason he’s popped up as an option to you because he’s a forward that has scored 100s this year and is playing this weekend. You’re making a mistake whenever you compromise your upgrades for a one-week score. Why? Because in 2023, we’ve got arguably the best class of premium forwards we’ve ever seen. Whatever points you could gain this week, your likely gain will be quickly lost with the weekly outscoring of our better prospects. Barring Dylan’s scores returning to his ceiling numbers like at the end of 2022, it isn’t a play. Darcy Cameron is a stronger play over Moore if you are desperate to get a forward this week.
James Sicily is the one player from the club people genuinely want to own. However, a three-match suspension means he won’t be available until round 18. Coaches would ideally love to own him, but in the limited trade formats, he might be the one that got away, given that trade scarcity is starting to become evident.
Sadly the news on Wednesday evening wasn’t great, with the Demons confirming that Clayton Oliver will miss yet another week. It means that those in DreamTeam and SuperCoach that have held can now see the move to date as a failure. The logic was sound to hold. However, it’s just a piece of luck that’s not gone your way. Nobody could have foreseen the blister causing him to miss round 13 and the subsequent delay in returning this week.
The only upside for holders is that you’ve already got him and have been upgrading around him. While for the rest of the fantasy community, the race will be on to find a way to bring him in. We saw what he did pre-injury. He was the most prolific and damaging premium midfielder in the game. Each coach in contention should create a margin of space to get him. The small comfort for holders is they don’t have to find the trades or cash to get into him.
This is the best-ever scoring season from Christian Petracca in SuperCoach and his best in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam since 2021. And without Clarry, he’s scoring even stronger. He’s averaging 8 points per game higher and going at 112 in AFLFantasy and 125 in SuperCoach without his premiership teammate. The demons possess one of the best fixtures for fantasy scoring over the final five weeks. They play Richmond, North Melbourne, Carlton, Hawthorn and Sydney. The absence of Clayton may mean coaches will see the fixture and see how good CP5 has been for the year.
Finding value at D6 might be the play for coaches to ensure they can secure the last premium midfield or forward spots they desire. It’s why Christian Salem is an attractive play for coaches. We discussed him during the preseason in the 50 most relevant, where he’s shown the ability to average 90-95 for large chunks of time over his career. It could be a masterful selection if he can do that over the next ten weeks at this price point.
Barring a DPP addition for Max Gawn heading into round 18, he’s probably not someone you should consider. Thankfully he’s still within 1% of the threshold of getting forward status. Monitor this over the next few weeks; he’s a live chance to get RUC/FWD status. If he gets it, he’s a genuine late-season option.
Elliot Yeo is among the most interesting players to discuss and consider a post-bye round break. The Eagles premiership hero has finally turned the corner of his injury past and, for the past month, has started to look back to his scoring best of 2017,2018 & 2019. Over the past three weeks, he’s scored an 84, 94 & 95 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 73, 125 & 113 SuperCoach. The conversation around him starts to open up based on the format you play and each coach’s risk appetite. Whatever decision you make, you need to reconcile these two key points.
It is, firstly, scoring pedigree. Based on his current price, Yeo represents extraordinary value and, between 2017-2019, showcased his ability to regularly average 100+. There’s every chance that, over the final few months of the year, matches it with our topline premium backs. There’s a clear top handful of premiums in the back this year, but prospective owners would be thrilled if Yeo ended up at D6 and performed like this. It’s why those strapped for cash or those looking to bank some value are seriously considering him.
Second, and equally as likely, is that his ongoing soft tissue injuries continue, and we see him physically break down over the coming weeks. While nobody wants to see an injury, his recent history would give little confidence that he can hold out for 10+ weeks of elite topline AFL. So nobody trading into him can have the right to be ‘annoyed’ at him getting injured mid-game and becoming a forced trade-out.
In summary, the probability of him scoring premiums defensive numbers or having his body breakdown is comparable. That’s where this comes down to appetite for risk. It could be a season maker or breaker. Which side of the coin are you landing on? I think he’s worth the risk of picking him.
Ryan Maric isn’t an upgrade trade, but he could be the pathway to one or two upgrades this week as he becomes the option to release the cash off a fattened cash cow. The top selection in the midseason draft holds the best job security of all possible downgrade options. The only concern is that his scoring ceiling will be capped as a key position forward in the league’s worst team. Expect him to average at most 50. However, his scoring isn’t his core purpose; neither is his cash generation. Rather, the relation of money made to create upgrades makes him so appealing this week.
How important is creating some separation on your side for you? Based on your answer, this next paragraph will either be helpful or waste your time. Despite not much going right for the Eagles this year, Tim Kelly has been among the few shining lights. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s averaging a career-best 102, which features seven tons, including a season-high 142. While for SuperCoach, an average of 100.2 consists of six tons, of which three are above 120. His scoring variation has been tight across the year, but there are only two reasons you’re considering Tim.
Firstly, you’re an Eagles fan and want to bring in the best-performing player from your club of the year. It’s a move driven by coaches whose fantasy year is done, and you’re now just playing solely for entertainment. The second is for coaches desperate to trade into someone with low ownership as they attempt to separate your team from the pack. There are better plays than him at his price point, but if going unique is the driver, he’s a consideration.
Another week of the multi-bye rounds is over. We now have another two teams with no more scheduled rests for the remainder of the season. Here’s a club-by-club breakdown of potential upgrade targets who have had their bye round.
Noah Anderson is one of the more interesting prospects coming off the bye this week. The Suns midfielder has showcased over multiple games already this year that he has a top-tier scoring ceiling. Between rounds 4-8, he averaged 126.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 133 in SuperCoach. A good outcome over a five-game stretch. If he can deliver that style of scoring run in the coming weeks, he’ll become a boom post-bye selection. As always, matchups and money play a significant factor in your trade plans.
I don’t hate him as a play if you’re skimping on cash to be able to afford other upgrade targets. From a fixture perspective, he plays Carlton, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, St Kilda & GWS in the next six weeks. On the surface, the run doesn’t look too appealing, but he has shown historically he’s got the pedigree to score big, even in tough matchups. He’s a genuine consideration.
Entering the week off, plenty of coaches considered Matt Rowell, a player who could help them through rounds 14 & 15. He’s a different style of selection to Anderson. Noah is more likely to be closer to the top-line scoring premium midfielders, while just using 2023 data, Matt’s more likely to be a ‘gap filler’ option in the midfield that you look to upgrade upon in later rounds. That said, Rowell’s got plenty of scoring power.
Since round five in SuperCoach, he’s scored six tons, two over 155 and nothing under 85. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s posted four tons, including a 124 & 142 and two additional scores of 90 plus. Another to consider, but I think most teams will probably look for greener pastures… See what I did there ;). #GrassJoke
I’m not a big fan of the play I’m about to suggest, and honestly don’t think any players are looking for ruckmen this week. Coaches already have a combination of either Tim English, Rowan Marshall, Darcy Cameron, Luke Jackson or Kieren Briggs. So I’d be shocked if anyone wants or needs an option in this line. However, if you are, Jarrod Witts is a ruck, and he’ll play this week. NEXT!
Pre-bye, one of the best downgrade targets was Bailey Humphrey, the cash cow has been one of the best of the year, but he shouldn’t be a target now for coaches. At $520,000 in AFLFantasy & $379,300 in SuperCoach with a breakeven of mid-’30s across the formats means that while he’s got some cash still to make, it’s not worth trading into him. The benefit was multiple weeks ago; even the unluckiest coaches should have had multiple chances to get him. If you missed him, that’s ok. Treat it as a learning experience for future seasons.
There are only two ‘premium’ defenders I’d consider trading into this round. One I covered last week in the previous week’s upgrade targets; the other is Tom Stewart. Geelong’s Vice Captain in AFLFantasy is averaging 102 in his past three matches and has dropped his scoring to under 88 in just one of his eight matches. Over in SuperCoach, barring his injury-affected round one, his lowest score of the year is 912, and he’s posted seven tons, including 135, 139 & 167. It’s not a unique play to grab him, but it’s a historically safe move to pick him up. He’s always been in and around the top tier of scoring defenders. Barring Jordan Dawson & Nick Daicos, no other defender is banging the door down every week. So getting is a safe play. And sometimes, the best play is the safest move.
Could you do it? Could you trade into Patrick Dangerfield straight off his hamstring injury? The AFL website said he’s ready to play this week against Port Adelaide. While the Power is one of the most restrictive teams to play against, the pre-injury scoring of Danger was strong. In the five matches before the injury, he scored 86, 92, 104, 82, 110 & 93 in AFLFantasy, and 103, 119, 118, 144 & 124 in SuperCoach. That’s all before succumbing to an injured 68 in AFLFantasy and 58 in SuperCoach early in the third term.
The primary ‘risk’ isn’t that he’s reoccur his injury; rather, it’s twofold. First, it’s that he won’t score near enough the topline mids over the final three months. Is it worth settling for a ‘close enough’ option? Second, the club don’t have the luxury this year to manage their aging stars by resting them for full matches. But should games be ‘over’ by the start of the fourth quarter, Danger would be among the candidates to see his workload managed. Either way, there’s the upside to scoring potential vs price, and Patrick needs to be a consideration, even if it’s only to rule him out as an option.
Not many risks would be bigger than jumping blindly into Mitch Duncan. He’s been a mixed bag already in 2023, from multiple 90+ scores right through failing to register a 50. Looking at his historical scoring, his got the potential to be a great buy, but looking at this year in isolation, it’s layered with risk. He’s only a ‘buy’ if you’re playing catchup on the pack and need to create some forced separation with an upside. If you’re in contention in your league or rankings battle, he’s probably not the play for you. The risk of consistent sub-80 scores for the infrequent 110+ scores probably lends me to advocating for something else.
At the start of the season, many viewed Tanner Bruhn as a potential breakout candidate. However, the only breaking happened to fantasy coaches hopes and dreams. Three weeks into the year, he’d failed to score over 65 across either format and was quickly banished from our squads. However, over the past three weeks, the scoring we’d hoped for has started to appear, especially in AFLFantasy, where he’s scored 93, 79 & 100. At $602,000 with a three-week average of 90.7, it’s only a consideration in this format. The key variable is that we should see multiple changes this weekend, including midfielders Max Holmes and Patrick Dangerfield, who will trump his spot in the midfield. I can’t advocate for it as a play, but I can see why on the surface, people might look at it.
Over the past month, much has been made on our strategy roundtable podcasts of the lack of forward premiums that don’t hold a round fifteen bye. Jeremy Cameron has had a career-best fantasy season with an average in the mid to high 90s across the formats. The key reminder when trading into a player is to remember your not trading into their legacy scores of the year but only the upcoming matches. As a result, looking at the fixture is paramount to determining if it’s a play.
This week’s matchup against Port Adelaide is interesting; Melbourne follows it up in round fifteen and Sydney in the one after. It’s not the easiest trio of games, but he’s got a proven scoring ceiling in 2023 and doing so against good opposition. For example, in round two against Jacob Weitering, he scored 138 in AFLFantasy and 149 in SuperCoach. Like all key position forwards, he’s got the capacity to deliver a 60 basement, but the upside is certainly there for those wanting or needing to take a risk.
One week of the multi-bye rounds is over. We now have four teams with no more scheduled rests for the remainder of the season. Here’s a club-by-club breakdown of potential upgrade targets who have had their bye-round.
Since landing at Brisbane, one of the reliable scoring premium midfielders in the game is Lachie Neale. In SuperCoach, he’s consistently averaging over 110+ and above 100+ in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. He’s been a little patchy over the season, but before the week off, he had started to turn the corner with his scoring consistency. In his previous three weeks, he’s scored 103, 117 & 100 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 109, 128 & 122 in SuperCoach.
He’s dropped about $100k on his starting price in SuperCoach and is always a play in that format. However, I’m a big fan of the play in AFLFantasy. Priced at $829,000, he’s got plenty of upside. With a fixture of Hawthorn & Sydney straight off the bye, he may cop a pair of tags, but it opens up massively afterwards. From rounds 15-17, the Lions play St Kilda, Richmond and West Coast, three of the best matchups for midfielders. Every chance, within five weeks, he’s gone up $100k and averaged north of 110.
Based on that fixture, some might be tempted to look at Hugh McCluggage, especially in AFLFantasy, where a multiple-week stretch might be a consideration. Priced at under $750k and with a history of being able to average 100, it’s one to consider. I’d be cautious. The midfield mix of the Lions has changed with the arrival of Will Ashcroft and Josh Dunkley, and his role has seen him fade into a more regular wing role with minimal centre-bounce attendance. It’s got serious risk associated, given he’s only really popped one decent score for the year, but I can understand the consideration for coaches looking for a possible value play.
The vast majority of the fantasy community already owns Josh Dunkley. I dubbed him the most relevant player for the coming year in the preseason. While he hasn’t been as prolific as many had hoped, he’s still been one of the best forwards across the formats and has been a more than solid starting squad plays of the year. For the rare few that don’t own him, you’ve probably missed the boat trading into him, as it was a month into the year that was the right time to ‘buy low.’
Injury is never a good thing, but what it can do is create opportunity. And with Sean Darcy suffering a hamstring injury, it likely forces Fremantle to play Luke Jackson as the #1 ruck. So how does Luke go when the clear #1 ruck? It’s a very limited sample size and an entirely different team. However, last year he played one game without Max Gawn and scored 125 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 122 for SuperCoach. Getting three games like that over the byes without Darcy could be a game-changer.
Over the previous few weeks on our weekly strategy roundtable podcasts, you’ve heard MiniMonk often speak about the importance of versatility and value of an RUC/FWD DPP like Darcy Cameron. Another option (all be in more of a limited run through the byes) is Luke. At the very least, he’s a play to ponder.
After a quiet start to the season, Andrew Brayshaw is averaged 110 for the year but going at 122 in his last five for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Over in SuperCoach, he’s averaging 104 for the year but 119.2 since round seven. The early season injury niggles well past him, and he’s now back to his 2022 scoring best. He’s no longer that bargain he was a month ago, but he should still be an option to look at. Over the next month, the Dockers play Richmond, GWS, Essendon & Bulldogs. None of these teams run tags and has shown tendencies to let in/out players like Andy score well. Don’t be shocked if he’s not in the top 2-3 points scorers over the season’s final few months.
Six rounds into the year, people that had started with Hayden Young were targeting him as a trade-out option at the byes. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 81; in SuperCoach, he averaged 85 and had only one ton in the first six weeks across all formats. However, over the previous five weeks, he’s started to deliver the premium scores that have meant he’s now genuinely on the radar for all coaches off the bye. Since round seven, he’s averaged 102 in SuperCoach, scored three tons and nothing under 86. Over in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s averaging 100 in his last five, scored three tons and dropped his score under 98 just once.
Hayden’s price point is now back to where it was at the start of the season, which means he still presents a level of value. What’s the cause of scoring? The Dockers have started funnelling their defensive rebound through him more than Luke Ryan. What should provide a level of comfort for this is that the Dockers have won four of the last five games and have started returning to the winning form of 2022. Only the club would truly know whether it’s causation or correlation, but the two elements look linked from the outside. Beyond Nick Daicos, Jordan Dawson and James Sicily, no premium defenders are regularly banging the door down with big scores across formats—a genuine play.
If Young isn’t interested, maybe you’re more of a Luke Ryan fan. He’s having a career season averaging 99 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 110 in SuperCoach. He’s not been as prolific over the past three weeks, but he’s still a play. His scoring is almost doing the reverse of what Hayden Young is doing. Their prices are relatively comparable across formats, so I’d probably lean more towards Hayden unless you want both.
One of the breakout picks of the year has been Caleb Serong. Congratulations to every coach that jumped on early. The good news is, he’s shown it wasn’t just a hot stretch to start the year; he’s now done it for three months. Equally important is he’s scored well with Brayshaw performing well, too, meaning he’s not just getting the ‘upside’ of when Andy was struggling to be at his peak. If you want to get the most out of the Dockers fixture but can’t spend the $ to get up to Brayshaw, then Serong is certainly a ‘haircut’ to strong view.
It’s not an upgrade, but two Dockers could help generate cash. Sam Sturt is a chance to get a few games should Sean Darcy miss multiple matches with his hamstring injury. They’re far from ‘like for like replacements, but structurally, Sturt at 189cm adds another dimension to the forward line.
The big one, especially for SuperCoach, is Nat Fyfe. Priced at under $250k, he’s just over the price tag of a cash cow. There is no risk in trading into him at this price point. He’s priced as a glorified cash cow. Every week Nat’s looked better, and to get a player with his historical pedigree at this price point is a steal. At best, he becomes an on-field premium. At worst, he’s a trade going down with an injury. He is likely somewhere in the middle. Meaning he provides depth and flexibility across your benches once the byes end. Nobody is a must-have trade, but Fyfe is mighty close to it.
The man of steal, Jack Steele, has yet to be at his prolific scoring best in 2023. A combination of some niggling injuries and occasional mid-game role changes has seen the St Kilda skipper only show glimpses of his fantasy pedigree. For Jack, the week off couldn’t have come at a better time as it allowed some much-needed recovery time.
Anyone with a history of monster scoring like Jack must be considered. Next week is the optimal moving time to get him. That way, you get a week of visibility to watch him play & see if he resembles his old self while also managing his breakeven dip. Now is the right time to do it; as important as getting value for money is, points are the name of the game. This week St Kilda takes on the Swans. In his last three, Steele has scored 139, 124 & 137 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 125, 115 & 140 in SuperCoach. If he scores like that, you’ll care little about another $20k differential in price dip.
I do not love the defenders this year. Beyond Jordan Dawson, Nick Daicos, James Sicily and probably Sam Docherty, you could argue that no premium defender is worth paying up big dollars for. However, despite not living up to the dizzying heights of last year, Jack Sinclair is still a viable acquisition. He’s shown multiple games of 110+ and has matches against Sydney, Richmond, Brisbane & West Coast. Three of those matchups are quite favourable for defenders and midfielders. Jack could well fly off the back of the bye.
Brad Crouch in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam has shown a scoring pedigree. In 2022, he averaged 106.4 and was among the best midfielder premiums in the game. Even this year, he was averaging 113 over the first five matches. He’s cheap, given his historical performance, but it’s his ownership percentage that’d be more appealing as a team differentiator than anything else.
Only a few coaches should need to trade into ruckmen this week. Last round, we had multiple options present, so if you were an owner of an injured Sean Darcy, you could’ve got into Tim English, Darcy Cameron or Kieren Briggs. For those who held, you are probably not playing rankings focus but making leagues your priority. As such, there is a little world where people need a ruck; if you do this week, then Rowan Marshall is a viable play.
One of the keys to fantasy success, especially when trading into players, is to ensure your maximising the ‘upgrade’ with the first week of the trade. It’s why Jake Lloyd, who has arguably one of the best matchups this week, should be a trade consideration for coaches looking to beef out their backlines. All year the Saints have been fantastic matchups for defenders. Jake historically has been one of the best premiums, and while not as prolific as in previous years, he’s still been good this year.
He’s currently ranked seventh for defenders in SuperCoach and tenth in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam by averages. Additionally, he’s coming off the back of his season-high score, a 123 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and a 139 in SuperCoach. If you want to beef up the backline this week, then Lloyd needs to be a consideration.
Over the past five weeks, Chad Warner has been firing and delivering premium midfield numbers. He’s averaging 107.2 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 114.8 in SuperCoach since round seven. Interestingly this scoring boost happened with Mills still in the team, so it’s not just the departure of Callum that’s created a scoring boost. He doesn’t have the greatest scoring history against recent opponents. But given he’s played less than 50 games of AFL, I’m not too concerned. On current trends, the Swans have a favourable fixture matchup for midfielders. Chad’s an ‘impact’ over ‘volume’ footballer, so while he’s a consideration in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam, historically, it’s SuperCoach that his scoring has been at his peak.
It’s not flashy, but some will be looking at Nick Blakey off the back of scoring 114 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 125 before the bye week. I don’t hate the move, but it feels like your jumping on for a short time at a cheaper price point and wanting to get an overperformance that historically has only sometimes been there. Sometimes taking a haircut on a premium is a good play. I’m not sold it; it’s the right play for everyone. But it’s something to consider and ponder.
Sydney skipper Callum Mills is still anywhere from one to three weeks away from returning from his calf injury, according to the latest injury update. As a result, he’s not a trade this week but someone we should be keeping some space for. When he’s back, the Swans key position stocks will be replenished. This should result in a more permanent move back to the midfield. In doing so, he could be one of the year’s bargains.
Normally Luke Parker would feature here, but with him being suspended this week, he’s not someone to look at for this round.
Five weeks ago, I knew plenty of coaches were looking at Errol Gulden as a trade-out option. To that point in the year, he’d been fine but hadn’t delivered anything that resembled what we saw in the preseason. However, since round seven, he’s been amazing. Over the past five weeks in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s averaging 127.4, with only Tim Taranto averaging more in the previous five-game cycle. While in SuperCoach during that stretch of time, he’s averaging 124 and is one of only ten players with a five-week cycle over 120.
Errol’s already incredibly highly owned, but he is highly desirable for non-owners, not just for his scoring or to minimise the potential burn against their team. But because he’s a premium forward that’s playing in round fifteen. Beyond Gulden and Josh Dunkley, few premium forwards in any format are available to play in round fifteen. So for these reasons, targeting Errol might be essential over the next few weeks.
Before rounds 6, 12 and 18, the gang at Champion Data add some new DPP into the game. After the round, the first list of names and positions will be released. Historically, players need at least 35% to be considered for a new position allocation and at least four games played. So let’s see which players are locked, close or have no chance of getting DPP.
If you’ve tracked the publicly available data hoping to gain insights on future DPPs, seeing Jayden Short attending 67% of centre bounces last weekend isn’t good news. Over a week, he’s gone from someone I would’ve branded as ‘safe’ to gaining DEF status, as now to someone on the borderline. Currently sitting at 34% as a defender, he’s agonisingly close to the trigger of 35% to get the positional allocation. He might just miss out if we have another match like this against Port Adelaide on Sunday afternoon. Sadly, the injury to Jacob Hopper appears to have affected a midfield rotation shuffle for Richmond, and Short has seen a spike. Watch his role on Sunday with interest. He’s a chance for DEF/MID status, but no certainty.
There was a period a few weeks ago when the Sydney Co-Captain was on track to gain defensive status. He was playing down back to cover the injury gaps to Dane Rampe and the McCartin brothers. While the chance was small after playing a heavy midfield role in round eight, any hope was dashed after suffering a calf injury early in round nine against the Dockers. So scrap him from the list. He won’t be getting DEF status heading into round twelve. And given the length of injury layoff he won’t get a positional gain in 2023.
When the 2023 season concludes, and you review the year in hindsight, many will realise that having Dylan Williams on your side will have proven to be vitally important. And that’s for more than just his cash generation, as good as it’s been. Rather the forward has redeveloped himself and his game to become a central part of Port Adelaide’s back six. As a result, I’ve marked him down as a certainty to pick up DEF status and become a DEF/FWD. This will become crucial for us during the multi-byes and allow remarkable squad versatility until it’s time to trade him out at round fifteen.
Traditionally, players gaining MID status are some of the least relevant gains because they need to create a pathway to a higher scoring avenue within your 22. However, what the addition of midfield status does is create versatility and flexibility across your classic and draft sides.
Jack Sinclair has had an increasing presence at centre bounces for St Kilda. Impressively he’s getting enough time across half-back to pick up some of those uncontested possessions and marks and keep his scoring in the top tier of our available defenders. Over the past five weeks, his attendance varying from just over 20% right up towards over 60%. To gain midfield status, he’ll need a game that’s pushing the 50% of midfield time, he’s still determining, but he’s in the conversation. If he does get it, this, alongside his price post-bye, making him ripe for the picking, should see his ownership skyrocket heading into round thirteen.
Cards on the table, I’m a Crows supporter. And I thought Chayce Jones was headed for the trade table or, even worse, a delisting at the end of 2023. Sadly, beyond his first dozen games, he’d been unable to showcase the potential that made him a top-ten draft selection. That’s all changed! What he’s been able to do over the start of this season has given him a career revival.
The former lockdown defender has found a home across the opposite wing to Lachie Sholl, where his toughness and gut running is crucial to the Crows ball movement. His value to fantasy coaches is with his defender status, but especially in drafts, the DEF/MID status could create some positional versatility, especially if you play through the bye rounds.
Champion Data are the team behind the scenes that determine these positions. They’ve stated that a player’s position at centre bounces is a key factor in positional allocation. Over the past four weeks, Jack Stringer has attended 80%, 55%, 38% & 88% of centre bounces. As a result, one more game in this data territory should mean he gains MID/FWD status. Much like Jones above, his value is in drafts as a forward. However, the DPP could help get players on the field if your draft league plays through the byes.
The number one defender in the game by average & points has seen incremental growth in time in the midfield over the past five weeks. Nick Daicos has attended a variation of centre bounces from 17% to 63%. Like Sinclair, he’ll need a heavy midfield game this weekend to get DEF/MID status, and while it’s unlikely, if we see a midfield-heavy game as he did against the Crows (63%), it might just tip him into the threshold to get it.
Any DPP gain can add flexibility and versatility, and with the byes starting next week, should he (or anyone else) gain a position, it could unlock some moves for your squad.
Sometimes, as you head into the round ahead of the DPP movements, the data is overwhelmingly compelling, and the position status is guaranteed. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case with Christian Petracca. He’s close, but he will need a fair share of time starting inside forward fifty this weekend to guarantee the status allocation. CP5 has always had a level of time forward, but this year the split is tantalizingly close to him returning to our forward lines.
During the preseason series of the 50 most relevant, I flagged the potential of him gaining forward status. And it’s a reminder for us again that in our starting squad and early season trading cadence, we need to create space for this level of elite scoring that can become part of the game. Should this MID/FWD status land, between him and a few other gains, we might see a complete revolution of what is deemed the ‘top six’ forward for the 2023 season.
With the uncertainty around Clayton Oliver playing this week (and beyond), I’m not sold; we’ll get the heavy-forward time game needed for this DPP to pop.
Lock this one up and throw away the key. This time next week, you’ll be able to select Sam Walsh as a forward. Since his return from injury, he’s been sensational, regularly posting large tons seemingly at will across all formats. The primary causation for the move has been to ease him back into the rigours of AFL.
Regardless of the causation, the positive outcome is that he could pick up forward status. He’s currently on the borderline of it, but as long as Michael Voss doesn’t release him back into a heavy midfield (like last week) role, he should pick up MID/FWD status.
The huge upside with him is that regardless of his future midfield/forward split, he’s shown his scoring is unaffected. So when you combine the current trend and his historical pedigree, we might be about to receive the new top forward by an average of 2023. While the upside is you’ll get a top-tier premium midfield in the forward line; the challenge will be finding the cash to land him.
Much like his teammate in Christian Petracca, the possible gain of forward status from either Max Gawn or Brodie Grundy was telegraphed all preseason due to the Demons two headed ruck monsters. To date, Max has become the one that Melbourne has used more forward, with Brodie taking the lead ruck role. Currently, the Demons skipper is sitting right on the 35% threshold. If Gawn can hold this percentage for one more week will get Gawn as an RUC/FWD.
His addition could be an absolute game-changer for multiple reasons. First, an early-season injury has impacted his price point to insanely low space. His round 14 bye round for him means you can maximise him through the rucks in the byes alongside any combination of Rowan Marshall, Tim English or Sean Darcy you have. Third, his potential DPP flexibility could open up loopholes and depth coverage without having to make trades. And lastly, his non-injury-affected average is 93 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102 in SuperCoach. All in all, if Gawn gains it, this could be the biggest addition of the year!
One week can make a significant difference. This time last week, I had Jackson Macrae as a 50/50 split of gaining MID/FWD status or missing it. After his win against the Crows on the weekend, I’ve got him heading north of 75% confidence picking up forward status. What’s been the cause of the growth? Data! In the period of one round, he’s gone from 35% as a forward upwards to 40%, according to the Herald Sun. Much like others on this list, his pending position status will be determined entirely on his role in the Bulldogs midfield this weekend.
Over the past few seasons since DPP gains have become an evolution, we’ve often seen high-end midfield talent gain FWD or DEF status as the clubs look to build their bodies and fitness to handle the rigours of AFL football. Players like North Melbourne’s Tom Powell or Hawthorn’s Connor MacDonald have had this happen over the journey. This isn’t and won’t be the case with Will Ashcroft. He’s spent some time as a forward, but he’s been used most of his game as a wingman and a centre-bounce midfielder. He’s zero chance of getting an additional position. Sorry to burst the bubble.
Two weeks ago, I was growing in confidence that we’d see Dion Prestia pick up MID/FWD status. The Tigers premiership midfielder had been one of the pieces that the coaching staff had used to create room for Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto to become the primary two midfielders at centre bounces. While the possible gain wouldn’t have added classic coaches, it sure would’ve recouped some of the loss of draft capital for coaches who play draft. Instead, due to this forward time increase, his scoring declined.
However, due to an injury to Jacob Hopper, I suspect the trend of last weekend will continue when his CBA’s start to return to normal. As much as I’d love to give some hope to owners, I don’t think it’s coming. Barring a drastic turn of events this weekend, he’ll maintain his pure midfield status.
Sunday evening, the Herald Sun confirmed what had, until that point, been a rumour. The newspaper reported that Clayton Oliver had suffered a hamstring injury and could miss up to four weeks of football. As a result, the fantasy community now has one of the best scorers of the season unavailable and teams are left pondering what to do with Clayton Oliver?
Can you hold Clayton Oliver? Yes! It might seem odd to do it, but there’s genuinely a world where this could be a play. One of the reasons behind it is that Melbourne is yet to confirm the severity of the hamstring. That he could play out the last quarter with a hamstring injury might lend itself to not being a severe or a traditional injury. In 2023, we’ve already seen players like Sam Docherty and Tom Stewart return from injury well ahead of previously communicated timelines. This is Clayton’s first in-season soft tissue injury in his AFL career, so you could find a level of optimism to hold.
It is risky to play this out, especially in AFLFantasy, but that doesn’t mean it should be immediately discounted as a play. For example, if you are an Ollie Hollands owner, you could loophole his score from the bench with the Blues playing Friday night. A 70+ score is well within his capacity, which might be enough if you can continue an upgrade cadence with your other non-forced trades around it. Unquestionably you’ll need some luck to make this playout work, but at the very least, you must look at the option.
Holding him in DreamTeam and SuperCoach is a more viable play than AFLFantasy due to the limited number of trades available and the upcoming bye rounds. In these limited trade formats, I don’t know of any team with 20+ trades left, with many remaining in the middle portion of the teens. Coaches have to ask themselves in trading out of Clayton whether they will be able to find the cash generation and trade capital to get him after he returns from injury. In an ideal world, I don’t think anyone wants not to own Oliver in the run home. So choosing to trade out means you must create a pathway to owning him again. Something easier said than done.
Another element that we could hold is the impending multi-bye rounds. In SuperCoach & DreamTeam, we’ll run with a best 18 on the field during rounds 12 & 13 before. And thankfully, with only four & two teams respectively missing, they are arguably the two easier bye rounds to navigate without him. So yes, you’ll potentially have three weeks down on the premium output, but the fielding of the best 18 scorers in these bye rounds does minimise the impact for on-field scoring.
Do you have to hold? No! Do you have to trade? No! There are multiple ways of playing this game, and multiple approaches can and have resulted in success. The key here is to know yourself, your team, your appetite for risk & the outcomes you’re aiming for.
Imperfect Timing
There is never a good time for a player of Clayton’s scoring to be missing. The one upside is that owners who’ve had him for the majority of the year have been able to bank his phenomenal scoring and now have the salary space on top of him to be able to afford anyone they desire across any line.
The annoying part of the timing is that some of the best options ripe for the picking have next week off with their teams bye round. For example, Jack Steele looked like a million dollars and, due to a few injury-related hiccups, looks back to his best. Similarly, Andrew Brayshaw looks to have gotten over his sore knee after scoring well in the previous two weeks. Throw in Jack Sinclair, Lachie Neale, Luke Parker and Caleb Serong; we have many nice options.
They’re still all in play for teams with a league focus and don’t play through the byes. But if your focus is ranks, I cannot advocate trading into someone who’ll only be available for one week rather than the next.
Captaincy Consideration
Have you done some bye-round planning yet? And by that, have you created a visualisation plan of what your team looks like both now and again heading into round 16? While you might still need to complete the puzzle pieces, have you got the cadence and plans set up so that you know what the rhythm of your trades looks like? If not, I encourage you to do so as a matter of urgency.
Creating a plan like this makes life so much easier for many reasons, but for one of them, it helps inform the pathway to a ‘complete team.’ Some might be tempted to use the cash on top of Oliver to move him from one elite premium and split it into a couple of ‘almost’ or ‘hopeful’ premiums. While I understand the intention behind it, the reality is I couldn’t advocate for that as a strategy.
With Clayton Oliver, you have one of the most reliable 100+ scorers and someone who, in 2023 and years prior, has been one of the safest performers going around. It’s why often he’s had either the VC or C left on him for the year. But, regardless of a tag, the weather, the opponent or the game scenario, he finds ways to score well.
Everyone plays the game differently, and that’s the beauty of it. However, I’d only advocate trading Oliver to someone you feel comfortable placing the C or VC on most weeks. Don’t skinny down your captaincy options to try and force a completed side faster. Oliver is one of the best in the game, and I’d only be considering options that are inside the same scoring criteria.
Saturday night, there were two types of fantasy footy coaches: Zach Merrett owners and those without him. Merrett posted a monster 158 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 162 in SuperCoach against Richmond. He does make an obvious addition with matches against West Coast, North Melbourne and Carlton until his bye week off. Throw in that he maintains your bye structure, presenting a compelling case for trading into him.
The only caveat I’d throw in here is that historically players coming off the back of such a dominating game like this often receive extra attention from the opposition the next week. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles go all out to limit the impact of Zach. West Coast has been using a tagger recently, so don’t be surprised if one comes. It’s not a reason to fade him as an option, but coaches should know it is a possible outcome.
How many more weeks will people find a reason not to trade into Rory Laird? He’s coming off the back of six consecutive tons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and hasn’t dropped his scores under 97 in SuperCoach since round two. He’s bottomed out, with him just starting to make back some of the money he leaked due to a poor round one and a few red-vested ‘precautionary’ games.
There is still some concern in the community that his ‘calf niggle‘ is still an issue, but the reality is all we can do is make decisions with our information. And we have a player averaging 114 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and SuperCoach in the past five, and he is moving well. If you’ve gone this far without Laird, this Oliver injury could present the last ‘cheap’ space to trade into him.
Later in the week, I’ll release an article about some potential DPPs that’ll be added to the game next, but I’m optimistic we’ll receive Sam Walsh as a forward. Currently averaging over 110 across the formats, he looms as a genuine threat to Tim Taranto and Josh Dunkley as the top-averaging forward of the year. Getting your hands on higher-priced players like Walsh can be hard, but with Clayton’s injury, this could open up an easier path to getting him.
Is 2023 the year that Marcus Bontempelli finally wins himself a Brownlow Medal? After being an elite performer for most of his career, it’s finally translating to all formats of fantasy footy this year. Over multiple years ‘Bont’ has always been a top-tier scoring performer in SuperCoach, but he’s gone to another level this year. Nine tons from his ten matches, three scores over 140, and an average of 128 alongside him currently being the top scorer in the game make it hard not to desire to own him. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s ranked seventh highest for averages amongst pure midfielders, eighth for total points and hasn’t dropped his scoring under 90 all year. Throw in his five-round average of 119, and it’s pretty good reading.
Lastly, one demon down and another step up? That could be the case for Christian Petracca. In SuperCoach, he’s ranked sixth overall for total points, seventh by average and is on a run of eight consecutive tons. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s averaging 104.2, comprising six scores over 100. If you believe Oliver’s absence creates a bump in Trac’s midfield presence and scoring power, then he has the historical pedigree to match it with the best scorers in the game.
We’re a fortnight away from the commencement of the bye rounds, so let’s look at some of the trade priorities as we head into another round of fantasy football.
There are two key things that Callum Mills’ injury reminded us of. The first is the significant impact the luck variable can have on your season. Everything about trading into Mills optically looked good. From his price point to the return of the midfield role and coming off the back of a ton, it screamed pick me. Nobody can predict an injury like that; it’s just bad luck. Plain and simple. We’ve seen countless moments of that this season and over previous years. For the most part, it was a good trade, but it could have been better in some places.
For example, I wouldn’t say I liked trading into himvia Will Setterfield. On our round review podcast episode, which is available for our Spotify podcast subscribers and premium tier Patreons, I unpacked it further. But the premise was that with no Darcy Parish, the midfield role had returned, and the fixture was opening up for the Bombers. After the tough matchup against Brisbane, which has now passed, they play Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne & Carlton before the bye. Given the scoring trend of inside midfielders on these teams in 2023, he always has a chance to average 100 over this period. So while it looks like a ‘hindsight’ call to say Mills-Setterfield wasn’t a good trade, it had more to do with the variables around Will than an injury to Mills.
The irony is that now Will is out injured with a foot fracture. So it may seem a void point to bring up, but it’s rather about unpacking the mindset and process of trades than anything specific about Will. Remember, trades aren’t just to be viewed about who you’re getting onto, but who you jumping off and when.
No Darcy Parish or Will Setterfield and a fixture of Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne & Carlton before the round fourteen byes. The breakeven suggests you could wait on trading into Zach Merrett, but the fixture and lack of midfield support indicate that you could afford to trade on now. Only a few premium midfielders have the legacy history of scoring 110 across the formats for multiple seasons, but Zach does.
Rory Laird will be at an attainable price for only so many more weeks. Last weekend’s precautionary vesting meant that the window is still open to trading into him. Yes, there’s been some ‘calf tightness’ concerns, but that wasn’t the causation behind his red vest against the Saints. Has he got some risk? Sure! But the upside is he has shown that his legacy scoring ceiling is still within his reach regularly.
I don’t love the matchup for Bailey Smith this week. The Crows are a notoriously tough team to score against for midfielders. That said, in AFLFantasy, I could get behind trading into him. At $815,000, he’s got the proven upside of pushing an average deep over 100, while the downside is he’s someone you trade out of at the round fifteen byes. One thing that might tip you over the line to trade into him is a round fourteen matchup against North Melbourne. He might be the perfect bye-round booster for your scoring.
I’m not a fan of doing it yet in AFLFantasy or DreamTeam, but getting into Darcy Cameron in SuperCoach, if named, is a serious consideration. Priced at under $500,000 with a breakeven of 55, he’s coming off the back of scores of 103, 137 & injury impacted 89. His RUC/FWD status and round fourteen byes will be helpful for versatility. In addition to creating some depth in the RUC/FWD lines, especially for those with an RUC/FWD dead cow at R3. And lastly, two of the next three weeks are against North Melbourne and West Coast. ‘DC’ has shown he’s a scorer in this role. The only concern is that Collingwood might phase him into the lead ruck role, but it’s worth consideration.
Lastly, there’s a pair of GWS Lachie’s to consider. Ash & Whitfield. The injury to Isaac Cumming that will see him out to the byes has meant they no longer have the challenge of squeezing three fantasy prospects, only fit into the two scoring halfback roles. Rather both Ash & Whitfield are now free to fill their fantasy footy. The next five weeks have some juicy matchups for halfbacks. St Kilda, Geelong, Richmond, North Melbourne and Fremantle.
In the previous three weeks, Lachie Ash has scored 89, 102 & 123 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 80,87 & 109 in SuperCoach. At the same time, Lachie Whitfield has gone at 106, 102 & 99 in SuperCoach and 88, 130 & 105 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. So they’ve got some risk, but the scoring power, role and fixture are all there.
Many conversations are happening across the community about the need for more cash cows coming in as downgrade options. One of the primary drivers of this conversation is that we’ve now got several cash cows potentially topped out in their generation. The likes of Kade Chandler, Oliver Hollands, Oskar Baker and Connor Mckenna all need to be put into the trade-out process. While Will Ashcroft and Reuben Ginbey‘s good scores of last week mean they’ve still got another few weeks of cash to make if required. To maximise the money they’ve made, we need both upgrade and downgrade targets to align, and herein lies the potential challenge.
Many believe there are no or poor cash cow options available as downgrades, but options are abundant. They all have an element of risk, but that’s the same as what happens in most seasons. So to suggest there are no cows is false. We’ve got plenty. All with risk elements, but you’ve got options.
Bailey Humprey has one of the lowest breakevens across the formats, has DPP and structurally helps you with the round thirteen byes. The only issue is he’s already had some cash generation. But he’s one of the better downgrade options this week. For example, trading into him via Kade Chandler will net you $141,000 in AFLFantasy, $144,200 in SuperCoach & $160,100 in DreamTeam. Now, I could go down to Blake Drury and make plenty more coin, but the reality of his breakeven means I can still wait another week if needed. Additionally, I’d feel much safer trading into Humprey than Drury if the player was also required on the field. Bailey has shown he can be trusted for a 50 over the past fortnight.
They aren’t the only two options, either. Mitch Knevitt (MID) is comparable in price to Humprey and also helps structurally for you through the byes. Harry Sharp looks like he’ll be every chance of playing up to the byes, and a further two weeks of price movements are enough for you. And don’t discount Campbell Chesser; while he’s sitting on plenty of benches as a red dot, the Eagles need to keep flooding kids. Now that he’s fit and played a game in the WAFL, we could see him very soon. Depending on the format you play, even a Josh Weddle or Arthur Jones might be worth it. Both appear to be safe inside their respective clubs best 22.
Are there risks involved with some of our downgrades? Of Course! But no more than usual at this time of the season. Wondering which players have the best breakevens? We’ve got them listed here.
Early next week, I’ll dive into my predictions of who I think will pick up an additional position after round eleven. But a warning, we’ll be getting an influx of premium forwards that will drastically affect the best prospects in the line.
Do you play SuperCoach? Then Nat Fyfe needs to be on your radar. He’s priced at $267k with a breakeven of 101 this week. Entering round thirteen after the Dockers week off, he can be priced at under $250k. To get a player with MID/FWD status, with no byes, and the upside of proven 100+ scoring is an absolute gift. He’d create an avenue of available cash through a downgrade via an Ollie Hollands type and only be needed on the field through the byes. After that, he’d have a basement of being a depth and versatility play. With the upside of being good enough to field. At the very least, one to consider. But for me, only injury or suspension will prevent this play from happening for me.
You rarely will ‘win the draft’ in the opening handful of rounds. Rather, the mid to late draft day selections can take your team from good to great. So two months removed from your draft day, here’s a look at some of the late draft day selections that have been winning selections for their owners.
You rarely see players return from ACLs and average the same as before the injury. It’s even less common you see players return and increase their scoring averages, but that’s what Lachie Weller is doing so far. From his six games, he’s posted four scores over 85, including a 109 & 133. His average of 94 has him ranked 13th amongst all defenders by average. At worst, he’s probably sitting at a D2 position for a coach and, potentially, on average, is a teams best defender—a phenomenal output given the draft capital investment. Hopefully, he can return from his current injury soon and keep playing at this level.
One of the most discussed players in the AFLFantasy community this season has been Harry Sheezel. Most of the noise has come from the salary cap and keeper league coaches, but he’s been just as compelling a selection in single-season drafts. Five tons, three of them have been 115+ and an additional two scores over 95 means he’s had just one score sub 95 (47) all season. He’s ranked third amongst forwards for bother averages and total points.
And since picking up DEF status ahead of round six, he’s now also placed as the third-best defender by points and fourth by averages. Last year Nick Daicos was the first-year player that became a premium pick, and Harry’s right on the same pathway to follow it up in 2023.
Long-time draft coaches have known about the scoring pedigree of Will Day. In his debut season of 2020, we saw in multiple instances that Day’s got the capacity to score towards the upper tiers of our defenders. While he’s missed a few matches through suspension, Will’s been one of the best draft day wins for coaches—two tons, including a season-high 128. Three additional scores between 90-99 and a season-low of 85 have him ranked by average as the eighth-best defender in 2023.
To get your D1 on performance at the potential, the spot you’re picking your last defender on draft day is an exceptional return on capital investment.
Jack’s very familiar with this area! It feels like a case of deja vu. The parallels between the half-back role and high scoring for draft coaches are eerily similar. He’s been an inspired draft selection. He started the season forward-eligible, and he’s ranked fourth by averages and total points amongst forwards. He’s well ahead of Errol Gulden, Stephen Coniglio and Connor Rozee, who were all picked well over 140 positions ahead of him.
Since gaining defender status ahead of round six, he’s been the fifth-best defender by averages and fourth by total points. In addition, he’s currently the 16th-best player in the competition by total points! Amazing!
There were glimpses of the scoring in this role on the wings last year under Brett Ratten. Over the final five weeks of 2022, he scored 106, 93, 95, 102 & 79. That scoring thread has continued with two tons and multiple additional scores over 90 so far. What’s most impressive is that from a total points perspective, he’s scored more than Tom Mitchell, Lachie Neale, Luke Parker and Patrick Dangerfield. While Callum Mills, who had an average draft position of seven, has scored just eight more points than Mason. This a great outcome, in contrast to the draft capital spent.
Coaches were happy to spend early draft capital on second-year players. Jason Horne-Franics has an ADP of 130, Nick Daicos was 36, and even Josh Ward went at an ADP of 166. One that’s flown under the radar is the former first-round selection for the Crows. Josh Rachele has been excellent. Based on total points, he’s ranked 17th amongst forwards, consisting of five scores above 85, including two tons. Beyond Nick, he’s been the best-performing second-year player.
The scoring leap from Callum this year has been something that nobody forecasted. Before this season, his best-ever average for a year was in 2022, when he averaged 68.3. After eight rounds into this current year, he’s rolling at an average of 87.4 and is currently ranked 14th amongst defenders for total points. He’s scored more than Angus Brayshaw, Isaac Cumming and Bailey Dale, who haven’t missed a game and were drafted north of 100 spots earlier.
Did you see this scoring coming? Based on Liam Shiels’ ADP, it appears that only a few did. The former Hawk was brought over to offer off-field leadership and influence the club’s culture. Alongside this, he’s become one of the more surprising scoring forwards. Liam’s been well worth placing as any on-field option, given that by total points; he’s currently ranked 20th amongst all forwards. Ahead of Isaac Heeney, Dustin Martin and Jason Horne-Francis
This entrant speaks largely to the lack of depth in scoring this line has produced, but it does showcase that late-round drafting can produce some gems that catapult your side’s overall scoring health to the next level.
One of the primary reasons for such a lowly-ranked ADP would be that Nasiah was eligible only as a midfielder for the first five rounds of the season. Had he been allocated the DEF DPP, which he was awarded heading into round six, I could see a world where he’d have been selected up to 100 spots earlier.
Regardless, Wanganeen-Milera has been a sensational acquisition for draft teams. By total points, he ranked 18th for all defenders. The positive is his scoring improving as the season grows. In his first three matches, he didn’t post a score over 80. However, in his last five, he’s posted three tons.
It’s more driven by recent bias, but when you’ve posted 79, 127 & 103 in the past three weeks, you deserve some attention from the AFLFantasy community. Defenders for the Gold Coast have all had cushy scoring roles, and for now, Powell is picking up some of that upside. It might not last forever, but it doesn’t have to. Getting this scoring level this late in the drafts is a tremendous upside.
Given the ADP vs scoring output, you could argue that Darcy Macpherson is the most valuable player selected on draft day. By average, amongst all defenders, he’s ranked tenth for total points and fifteenth by averages. And with DPP, he’s available as a defender and a forward. Alongside this, he’s ranked ninth amongst all forwards for points. Whether you’ve played him as the forward or defence, he’s been one hell of a pick.
Honourable Mentions
All players listed above were selected in the later portions on draft day. In addition, as great a bargain as they have been, two players were selected outside of the top fifty draft positions that I felt needed a special ‘shoutout.’
Early in the preseason, fellow panellist Rids, in the 50 most relevant, predicted that he could see Tom Green as the highest-scoring player this year. While he’s not there yet, he’s getting there. After eight weeks, he holds the second-highest average in the game and is one of two players with an average of over 120.
What makes this more impressive is that even with missing a game through suspension, he’s still ranked 14th for total points. He’s scored more than Rory Laird. He’s just one point behind Josh Dunkley and less than 15 points behind Marcus Bontempelli and Jordan Dawson.
Only 11 pure midfielders are currently boasting an average north of 105. Not only is Caleb Serong one of those, but he’s also currently ranked 7th on that list. Caleb’s averaging more than Josh Kelly, Zach Merrett and Rory Laird, all of whom would be seen in the eyes of many draft coaches as not just genuine M1s but genuine top-10 scoring midfielders.
Alongside this, he’s ranked 9th for total points and has scored more than other popular midfielders, Christian Petracca and MarcusBontempelli, to name a few. The Dockers vice-captain is putting together a fine start to the season.
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