MJ & Kane continue their analysis on who they believe are the top 50 players for a brand new UltimateFooty Keeper league.
In tier six, we look at seven more players and unpack their fantasy potential.
Adam Cerra
| KANE | A lot of the glow from Adam Cerra’s time at Fremantle has rightly gone to Andy Brayshaw and Nat Fyfe but Cerra is set to boom. After playing much of his AFL career across half-back and half-forward I think we’re finally about to see him released as an inside midfielder. In 2021 we saw Cerra’s CBA’s increase and as a result we saw some ceiling in the final rounds of the season. In Round 19 Cerra racked up 129 points thanks to 30 disposals, nine marks and two goals and backed it up the next week with 138 points courtesy of 33 disposals, eight marks and six tackles. I know it’s only a couple days but that’s the type of well-rounded scoring that the uber premiums have. With the chatter that Cerra will land at Carlton who are screaming out for midfield support I think we get a 95-100 season from him in 2022 and then consistent 100 seasons after that. |
| MJ | When I think of how best to describe Adam Cerra as a player the first word that comes to mind is class. ‘Chez’ has this uncanny ability to make the difficult look easy and find his teammates lace out from seemingly impossible positions. The scoring consistency hasn’t yet popped for him, just last year alone he delivered just four scores over 100. But what I like about his scoring is the steady build. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 60, 75 (BCV) and now an 87 which includes an injury impacted 15. If this current scoring trend both continues and maintains at his new club, he should average 95 for the next 7-8 seasons. Additionally, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ever cracked a few seasons over the 105 marker. At Carlton (his rumoured club of choice) he’ll never get tagged. That will always be Sam Walsh or Patrick Cripps if he can ever get back to his former glory. Having Cerra as potentially the #3 midfielder will be an exciting proposition for Blues fans but also for keeper coaches. |
Bailey Smith
| KANE | There’s definitely a lot of merit in taking superstar players even if their scoring isn’t quite reflective of their standing in the game, as there’s always a buyer in the league that wants to own them. I don’t want the above comment to downplay Smith’s fantasy ability though. In his three seasons he’s already demonstrated that he has elite scoring traits. In 2021 alone he produced scores of 131,127, 125, 118 to go with a 126 in the semi final against Brisbane. That’s incredible scoring for a third year player. My major concern with Smith as a fantasy prospect is his role. He’s been so damaging as a wingman with his workrate and capacity to hit the scoreboard that I worry he’ll be locked into this role for the bulk of his career. It’s extremely difficult to be a wingman that pushes past 105 and with Bontempelli, Liberatore, Macrae, Dunkley and Treloar all having multiple years of elite football ahead of them I don’t see a need to move Smith into a sought after inside midfield role. Even if Smith stays out on a wing for the next five years he’s too good of a player to average less than 90 points. I don’t think the fantasy output will match his superstardom but it will be more than good enough for many years to come. |
| MJ | I gotta be upfront with you. In keeper leagues, you want players that can score, but you always want to enjoy the player on your list. Thankfully, Bailey Smith ticks both of those boxes for keeper coaches. Smith is genuinely one of the most watchable players in the AFL right now, and at just 21 years old when the season starts he’ll continue to only get better. Since debuting for the club he hasn’t missed a game. And in that debut year, he finished with an average of 69. Many know about my ‘games to first-ton’ metric for keeper values. For Bailey, it took him 14 games before that first ton. However, he had 3 scores over 90 before that. In 2020, he delivered a BCV average of 86 which included one pure ton and an additional six over 80. Remember in 2020 ‘80 was the new 100’ due to the shorter game time. For the season just gone, he averaged 87, scored six tons which included four over 115. The score build is there. He wins the contested ball, also accumulates the uncontested stuff, he tackles, marks and kicks goals. He’s well and truly the total package! The lack of positional stability is of concern, as that impact both his ceiling and scoring basement. But at just 20 years of age at the time of writing, he has plenty of time to lock down a permanent position. |
Sean Darcy
| KANE | It was the breakout season we’ve all been waiting for from Sean Darcy. The 23-year-old ruckman played 21 games (his previous best was 15 out of 17 in 2020) and demonstrated the scoring power we saw glimpses of in his first season. Darcy’s average of 94 points was headlined with scores of 133, 132 and 122 but also brought down with scores of 44 (vs St Kilda, limited by injury and played forward) 59 (vs West Coast & Nic Naitanui) and 64 (vs Collingwood & Grundy). There’s clearly two massive challenges for Darcy as he aspires to match the top rucks. Firstly, his body. He needs to string seasons of 20+ games together and missing just three games in the past two seasons is an encouraging sign. Secondly, increase his floor. You can’t have 30-40 dips on your average when you face the best rucks in the competition. With a rising list around him and obvious role guarantees, Darcy has all the traits to be a long term ruck option. If you’re picking him in this range I think you have him pegged as a 95-100 player going forward. If you’re higher on him don’t be afraid to make your move earlier, if you lower on him well he’ll be well and truly gone by the time you’re comfortable to take him. |
| MJ | Ever since Sean Darcy broke onto the football scene back in 2017 it;’s been clear he has the fantasy pedigree. A debut score of 80 was followed up a week later with a 114. The potential has always been there, but the injury issues in his body had previously let him down. Prior to this year, he’d never played more the 15 games in a season. In 2021 he played 21 games, scored nine tons including three over 120 and an extra eight more scores over 80. And to be honest I thought he was pretty perfect in his year. But can he get better? In theory, yes, but for him to elevate himself to the Brodie Grundy territory of rucks, he’ll need to continue to improve on his endurance and athleticism. If he can do that, it’ll provide him with the necessary opportunities to push that average north of 105-110. Valuing rucks in any draft is both difficult and divisive. Everyone has differences of opinion. And that’s fine, but from a topline perspective, I’ll say this. Would you be prepared to spend a round 4 round draft pick on a player who’s 23 years old and likely top 3-4 in his line for the next 7+ seasons? For me, the answer is clearly ‘yes,’ which is why he’s in this tier on our list. |
Matt Rowell
| KANE | Are you a glass half full or glass half empty kind of coach? The junior pedigree and first four games of Matt Rowell are historic but injuries and some underwhelming performances since have put a halt to much of the hype. For a player like Rowell who has 10+ years ahead of him I think there’s always going to be at least one coach who jumps early so to get him I think you’re going to have to reach inside the top 25 picks. I feel comfortable in the 30s and wouldn’t be expecting 100+ in 2022 but more so high 80s, low 90s. No doubt Rowell could be a top 10 prospect as soon as 12 months from now and reward the coach that selects him for a long time. Ideally from now and draft day in Feb/March you’d love to hear that he’s tearing up the track in preseason and is healthy. |
| MJ | How long can we be prepared to hold onto his junior numbers and start of the 2020 season and believe these as normal? In 2020 before succumbing to his season ending shoulder injury, he scored 64, 108, 104, & 78 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam resulting in an average of 70.8 or 88.5 adjusted. In the NAB League for Oakleigh, Rowell averaged 123 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. From his seven games, he averaged 32 disposals, 17 contested possessions, eight tackles and four marks per game. This year, 12 games, an average of 55 and he didn’t score over 80 all year. The past 2 seasons of serious injury hits are a little concerning, but not alarming. At 20, he’s got a mountain of time on his side. I still think Rowell has the potential to be a 110+ averaging midfielder, and positively for new keeper leagues, he’s probably slipped a round or two in peoples eyes for when they target to draft him. |
Reilly O’Brien
| KANE | When to pick a ruck is always a challenge in a keeper and largely it depends on the setup of your league. Clearly the deeper the league the more valuable they become, particularly if you have the utility position activated. For this list, we’ve gone with 10 teams and one ruck on the field so the value is lesser but there’s always a need for a good one. The hard thing with ROB is what is his value? The upside looks to be near the best in the league as he’s demonstrated stretches of 110 scoring, however, in 2020 he had some scores that were shockers from a fantasy perspective and as a result his average fell into the 80s. With the reports ROB was carrying injury throughout much of the season I see him averaging near 100 for the next 3-5 years. The Riley Thilthorpe addition is a massive positive for ROB in my opinion as it means the Crows won’t play a second traditional ruck and instead have a talented ruck-forward in Thilthorpe to share the ruck duties with. |
| MJ | Which is the real Reilly O’Brien? Is it what he delivered in 2021? Or is it closer to his previous efforts when holding the #1 ruck mantle? From 20 games last year he averaged 86, scoring 5 tons and just an additional seven scores 80 or higher. Pleasingly for owners looking for ‘upside’, his 6 lowest scores came in the opening 10 rounds. But in the last 10 games of the year, he dropped his scores under 87 just twice. In 2020 he averaged 86.7 Avg (108 adjusted average) and scored 6 tons and 5 additional scores 80+. While in 2019 he averaged 95 from 18 games. The club has confirmed that for major portions of the season that he was carrying some injury concerns of his lower back. So for me, there’s enough data for me to have greater confidence to think he’s closer to 2019/2020 scoring than 2021. |
Zak Butters
| KANE | Zak Butters is on his list largely for the eye test. The way he plays the game and the skill set he has projects as an elite player for mine. Now that’s not to say he hasn’t demonstrated some scoring power already. In the shortened games of 2020 Butters delivered scores of 114, 97 and 85 and in 2021 he produced scores of 119, 91, 90 and 88 in the full length games. This more than enough scoring for a player who has only played three seasons and hasn’t seized a prosperous midfield role. The best case for someone like Butters is that he becomes what Robbie Gray was in his prime. From 2014-2016 Gray averaged 96, 97 and 98 points while maintaining forward status and could always be relied upon for a big game. |
| MJ | The balance of keeper leagues is paying for a player at what they will be, and not just what they have. The risk to do this is you can pay for a layer ‘earlier than others’ as your forecasting potential. At 21 years old the signs are there that Zak Butters knows how to deliver fantasy points, just looks at some of the signs from 2021. R5, 119 | 36 touches, 6 tackles and a goalR20, 88 | 22 touches, 6 marks, 1 goalR21, 90 | 19 touches, 2 goalsR22, 91 | 25 touches I see another 8+ seasons of 85+ seasonal averages from Butters. There is a ‘small risk’ he moves into a predominate midfield role and loses that forward eligibility. However, the upside is that if he’s around the ball that much to lose FWD status, he’s probably averaging 95+ anyway. So in reality it’s probably not much of a loss. |
Jordan De Goey
| KANE | Jordan De Goey might be the most complicated player in the 50! At 25 years of age he should be in the prime of his career and based off his second half of the season his scoring is certainly good enough (106 from Round 11-23). Where it gets tricky to project De Goey going forward is the new coach – Craig McRae. How does he envisage De Goey in his Collingwood side in 2022 and beyond? What is the split between midfield and forward? I can’t see De Goey’s average falling below 80 and that would be with playing the majority of his time forward. Sole midfield his average should be edging towards triple figures as he has all the tools in his fantasy game to do so. The ideal mix is clearly just enough forward time to remain forward eligible with the rest in the midfield hunting the ball. If this happens I can see De Goey as a 90-100 player and constant top forward. |
| MJ | Mr Upside is what I want to call Jordan De Goey. Much has been made about both his notorious start to 2021 scoring and a stunning ending. 2021 was a tale of two scoring halves from his seasonal average of 84. Between rounds 1-10 he averaged 57 including an injury affected 3. However, from rounds 11-23 he averaged 106 with a high of 125 and a low of just 93. I don’t have any concerns about him losing forward status both in the immediate and long term. De Goey is far too imposing a forward 50 option, and no coach would want to lose him from there permanently. The greatest unknown for him is what’s the game style of the Magpies under McRae? Will it be high ball retention like last year? Or will they be looking for more impact per possession? I still rate him as a career 80+ FWD from now till retirement. |