Tag: Connor MacDonald

#50 Most Relevant | Connor Macdonald
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Read Time:7 Minute, 15 Second

Happy New Year, and welcome back to the 50 most relevant!
Kicking off the annual countdown is one of my favourites in Connor Macdonald. For some, he’s a name you’ve never considered; for others, he’s someone they wish we didn’t cover. Either way, the cat is out of the bag! Let’s leap into the start of the 2024 50 most relevant.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Experiencing the thrill of identifying a fantasy football gem that few others spot and then seeing your insight validated is unparalleled. In 2024, Connor Macdonald of Hawthorn could very well be that breakout forward of the season.

At 20 years old, Macdonald shows promise as a potential long-term midfielder for the Hawks, displaying a commendable balance between offensive and defensive play. Known for his dynamic style, he effectively propels the ball into the forward 50 and is pivotal in transitional plays. Although drafted as a midfielder, he has found his footing in the forward line, contributing significantly to the new, youthful Hawthorn lineup.

Chris Newman, formerly coaching with Hawthorn in 2023 and now back with Richmond, praised Macdonald’s versatility in the club’s season review. He noted Macdonald’s exceptional runs, stamina, and ability to adapt to multiple positions – from midfield to wing – highlighting his significant growth in just his second year.

When scouting for players poised to ascend to the next level, it’s essential to spot subtle indicators of a potential surge in scoring. Macdonald showed several such signs throughout 2023. For instance, in round thirteen against Brisbane, he amassed 28 disposals, 3 marks, 2 goals, and scored 91 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 113 in SuperCoach.

Again, in round twenty-one, with 18 disposals, 9 marks, 3 tackles, he exceeded 90 points across all formats. Two weeks later, he tallied 104 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 95 in SuperCoach with 19 disposals, 8 marks, 4 tackles, and 2 goals. These performances highlight his ability to score well across multiple statistical categories. Imagine his heights with consistent, combined efforts in these areas.

Macdonald’s scoring improved as the 2023 season progressed, and his consistency stabilized. From an average of 67.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 61.4 in SuperCoach over the first five games, he jumped to an average of 86.6 and 82, respectively, in the final five matches.

While it’s risky to emphasise this trend too much, it underscores his potential for significant value in a forward line lacking top-tier premiums. Based on his performance in the last five games, he could offer an additional 16 points per game in AFLFantasy and potentially rank in the top 10 forwards based on average. In SuperCoach, this translates to a 19-point-per-game upside, positioning him well within the top 20 forward averages.

However, one should cautiously interpret these statistics. The intent here is to emphasize two points: the scarcity of elite forwards across formats and how Macdonald’s late-season form, albeit not the highest scoring range, makes him an increasingly relevant choice. Macdonald achieved these scores without significant time in the Hawks’ midfield. As a draftee known for his inside midfield capabilities, he attended more than 10% of centre bounces in only one game all season.

Hawthorn’s tight midfield rotations last year suggest a need for more players to step up alongside Will Day and Jai Newcombe. The team’s focus on developing Macdonald’s versatility is evident, enhancing his skills as a winger/forward in 2023, which could catalyze his move into a more rounded footballer.

His potential was not just a glimpse in 2023 but evident during his draft year. In the NAB league, he averaged 30 touches, seven marks, and five tackles per game, translating to an AFLFantasy average of 121 points. Scouts and draft watchers recognized him as a high-accumulating, stoppage-dominant player.

Macdonald’s fantasy pedigree, evident from his junior days and his growth in the AFL, positions him as a legitimate choice for your AFL Fantasy/DreamTeam and SuperCoach sides as he enters his third season.

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MY TAKE

As the 2024 AFL Fantasy, DreamTeam and SuperCoach season approaches, coaches face a unique challenge in the forward line. This year, the absence of forwards with high averages presents an opportunity to think outside the box, and Connor Macdonald emerges as a potential game-changer in this new landscape.

Navigating through the scarcity of high-averaging forwards, Macdonald stands out. His midrange positioning in a landscape devoid of the usual high-scoring stalwarts makes him a beacon of value. In a season where average scores are the norm, Macdonald’s potential to outperform his peers shines even brighter.

Flexibility is key, and Macdonald embodies this. As a mid-priced forward, he’s not just a player but a tactical asset. The ideal is he obviously becomes a premium forward, and as possible as that is, that’s not the only avenue to success. He can easily be upgraded to a premium player if he maintains a solid average up until the Hawks round 15 bye. This versatility makes Macdonald a vital component in any strategic fantasy plan.

Historical trends in AFL Fantasy/DreamTeam and SuperCoach show that mid-priced forwards can offer significant returns both as quick money makers or as season-long premiums. Players like Jack Ziebell, Aaron Hall, Darcy Macpherson and Taylor Walker have been valuable in early rounds in past seasons.

Macdonald not only holds the promise of strong early-season performance, making him a smart investment, but with a simple single trade, it can be used as a pathway to the stepping stone, which is firing without having to amend your squad’s structure.

The probable lowered average scores among forwards this season mean Macdonald doesn’t need to reach astronomical heights to succeed. This lower threshold for success enhances his appeal, transforming him, now an average of 85 over the opening half dozen to dozen games is arguably a gigantic success.

There’s also exciting potential for Connor in terms of role expansion. Everyone in the preseason is always set for #MoreMidfieldTime, but should the rumours of him gaining more midfield time eventuate, then he could significantly increase his scoring potential. Remember, last year he barely cracked the Hawks midfield. Imagine the upside should he get even a consistent run of 15-25% CBA’s per game.

Each season requires a different strategy, and while last year’s focus was on premium forwards, this year’s winning formula seems to lie in identifying high-value players inside the forward line. Macdonald, with his current pricing and potential, fits perfectly into this strategy and allows multiple pathways for owners to pursue depending on his scoring.

Pre-season analysis is crucial. Monitoring Macdonald’s role and performance in the pre-season can provide early insights into his potential for a breakout year. These indicators can offer a significant edge in fantasy leagues.

Connor Macdonald represents more than just a player; he’s a strategic choice in a year where identifying high-value players is crucial. His potential for consistent performance, coupled with the unique dynamics of the 2024 season, makes him an essential consideration for any coach looking to gain an edge. In a landscape where finding value is key, Macdonald might just be the piece that completes your winning fantasy puzzle.

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DRAFT DECISION

Connor Macdonald presents as an intriguing prospect in drafts, likely to be picked as an F4, yet he harbours the potential to deliver F2-level performances. This positioning offers a tantalizing upside with little to no discernable downside.

Macdonald’s current trajectory’s worst-case scenario seems to be maintaining his existing average throughout the coming year. Should this occur, it still leaves him as a valuable asset, albeit one that might eventually find his way back to the waiver wire. However, his demonstrated ability to enhance his game and the lack of risk in selecting him make Macdonald an astute pick, especially for coaches looking to capitalize on the value and upside in their lineup.

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Patreon Exclusive | 2021 Draft Class | Top 10 Keeper Ranks
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Read Time:9 Minute, 6 Second

After every season, we ask MJ to rank the top 10 players from the most recent AFL draft class for the keeper and dynasty leagues. Some players have 20+ games of exposure to AFL, while some have barely got games. The hope is that list will help you make some informed decisions with your fantasy football list management.

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#1 | Nick Daicos

Nobody should be surprised that Nick Daicos is the top selection from this draft crop. He was sublime this season, and a genuine case can be made that his debut season surpassed the greatness of even Sam Walsh. A seasonal average of 86 consisted of six tons, four over 110 and a career-high 147 against the Crows in round 18. His season was so dominant that not only did the eventual rising star winner start to cop multiple tags, but there was social media outrage when he didn’t even make the All-Australian squad of 44.

One day Daicos may move into the midfield full-time, but should that eventuate, it just means he’d move from being a 95-105 defender to a 105+ premium midfielder. You can’t lose!

The conversation shouldn’t be why Daicos is #1 on this list, but now a genuine conversation could be had for him to be drafted #1 overall in a brand new keeper league. If he’s not at one, he’s certainly a consideration.

#2 | Josh Ward

Much like Daicos at one, I don’t believe there should be much disagreement among the community with who I’ve placed second on this list. Josh Ward was always touted as a strong keeper prospect after putting up some stringer scores as a junior. However, over his final six weeks of the season, the pieces all started to fall into place for him. He posted two tons, including a monster 133 against the Eagles, to average an impressive 92.6 for a strong conclusion to the season.

Whenever a player has showcased at every junior level high fantasy pedigree and has delivered quality football and fantasy scoring in his debut year at the AFL level, it should build supreme confidence that coaches have got themselves a likely long term premium midfielder on their list.

#3 | Jason Horne-Francis

Before the season’s commencement, the popular perspective was that Jason Horne-Francis was the second best keeper prospect behind Nick Daicos. His slide into third, while hardly a slide, is more a credit to the trajectory of performance by Josh Ward rather than any negativity around Jason.

It wasn’t the season that JHF was hoping for. A combination of some niggling little injuries, form and just adjustments to the big time meant he didn’t live up to the ‘hype’ surrounding him. In his defence, Jason is more of an explosive contested midfielder. Here his speed and power come to the forefront. Even at the junior and SANFL, he was never a high volume possession winner, so to contrast him to Daicos or a Ward is unfair on him.

Despite some ups and downs, he had six games with 20+ possessions and five games scoring 70+. As both North and he improve, he should consistently evolve to be a 95+ scoring midfielder over the coming years. But in 2023, he should be MID/FWD eligible and might be enough to sneak on the field for you.

#4 | Josh Rachele

I believe the top three of this draft class are clear and supreme options. It then opens up incredibly. You could genuinely build a compelling case that

The comparisons of Josh Rachele that he’s a clone of Toby Greene aren’t that far of a stretch. The mercurial forward showcased his fantasy pedigree in round one, where he had fourteen possessions, kicked five goals and popped a ton on debut. He followed it up three weeks later with another triple-digit score with his current career high score of 101.

Since round four, he hasn’t posted a score over 60, but it’s evident that injuries have been a primary factor in returning to his early season performances. What Rachele offers keeper league coaches over his career is a degree of confidence. Josh is super dangerous inside forward 50, so no matter who joins the Crows (cough Rankine), I believe he maintains his forward status long-term. As a result, I’ve placed him up above other likely long-term midfielders that are harder to split.

#5 | Ben Hobbs

Much has been made about the Essendon Footy Club this season. One thing they did manage to get right is the recruitment of Ben Hobbs. Before getting drafted in the NAB league, he played six games and averaged 14 kicks, 11 handballs, three marks, five tackles, and 95 AFL Fantasy points. The comparisons to Taylor Adams and Joel Selwood consistently came through from all AFL recruiters.

It took him a month to crack into the Bombers side, but once he did, he established himself as a permanent fixture of the club. From his seventeen games, he showed in multiple games his developing fantasy pedigree. The highlight was in round eight, where he posted a 95. The slight uncertainty coaches might have is how he’ll fit in the short term into the Bombers midfield. A new coaching regime will only add further questions, but in the long term, he looks like he’s going to be a safe 90+ midfielder.

#6 | Connor Macdonald

Connor Macdonald is one of my favourites from this draft class. His strengths are his stoppage work, athleticism, and high end defensive pressure. As a junior, he spent his time as an inside midfielder, but at Hawthorn, they’ve spent his time more heavily developing him as a forward. As a result, he picked up MID/FWD status. Even with him receiving next to no inside midfielder minutes, we still saw multiple strong scoring glimpses. In round 18 against the Eagles, he scored 90 from just 13 disposals and two goals. While a fortnight later, he scored an 84 from 19 touches.

For Hawthorn’s rebuild to be a long term success, it’ll require Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara to phase out and allow Macdonald alongside Ward and Newcombe to thrive. To me, he looks like a pure fantasy prospect where he’s strong in and around the ground accumulator but still lacks some polish to attract any opposition midfield attention.

Chances are he’s a forward in 2023, but in the next two seasons, I forecast he’s got the potential to be one of the best midfielders in the game.

#7 | Jake Soligo

Just because you’re not an early draft pick doesn’t rule you out of being a high value keeper league prospect. Since returning to the Adelaide side mid-season, it’s evident that Jake Soligo is a genuinely good footballer. Playing predominantly on the wing, his class, toughness, speed, and elite decision-making are evident. And as the season went on, he built a stronger ‘inside’ midfield game.

The current fantasy knock on him is he’s yet to post a score north of 80, and while it’s a valid perspective, I think it could be a flawed concern. While the proof in scoring is important, sometimes we need to project in light of his role and opportunity. In his past thirteen games, he’s had nine that have ranged between 61-78. 

Internally the club believe they’ve found a clone to Rory Sloane, and if his career can mirror anything like that of his current captain, both the Crows and keeper league owners should be thrilled.

#8 | Marcus Windhager

I’ve got to admit; that I’m a big wrap for Marcius Windhager. He has some explosive midfield traits, possesses clean hands, and has a great turn of speed. At the AFL level, we largely saw him through the midfield, especially in tagging roles, but as a junior, he showcased that he can also roll forward and hit the scoreboard.

I’ve likened Marcus to his skipper Jack Steele, not just limited to the fact that they have similar physical attributes. But because of the hunger, they play both in the contest and provide phenomenal support to teammates without it. He might be a slightly longer burn than others on this list to become a highly relevant prospect, but to me, he’s shown plenty when tagging over the last five weeks of the season. A genuinely good prospect that’s sliding under the radar in some portions of the community.

#9 | Neil Erasmus

Another slider of this draft crop, but that’s more to do with a lack of opportunity. Neil Erasmus was one of the hottest keeper prospects this season, but he spent most of the season in the WAFL. He averaged 23 possessions, 4.6 marks and almost a goal a game from his twelve matches. All season and at junior level, it’s evident that he’s got a significant fantasy footy pedigree.

He got limited opportunities at the AFL level, including multiple subbed games, but his prolific ball winning abilities and strong overheard marking were on display. If this list were only based on projections of what they may become, I’d have Neil safely inside the top five. However, the reality, he still has to force himself into the Dockers best 22. The retirement of David Mundy might just be the gap he needs to force his way into the Fremantle team.

#10 | Tyler Sonsie

Last but no means least is Tyler Sonsie. Again, he leaps past guys like Finn Callaghan, who again have done nothing wrong, but the difference is that Tyler appears to have solidified himself into the Tigers side. His slick hands and elite stoppage work have helped him push past others at Tigerland. As the likes of Dustin MartinTrent Cotchin and even Dion Prestia start to graduate from the midfield, we should see Tyler rise into some significant fantasy scores.

As a junior, he was likened to Trent, and it’s clear to see that comparison being lived out as each week passes. The biggest knock on him heading into the draft was around his consistency, but it seems that time in the AFL system is helping. From his six games this year, he had 17 touches or more and had at least one tackle and mark in each game. The raw ingredients are there to become a very good footballer. Depending on the rules and depth in your keeper league, there’s a chance he could be sitting on the player pool & could be picked up today.

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Breakevens | Round Two
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Read Time:2 Minute, 18 Second

Buy low, sell high! It’s the age-old motto to succeed in Fantasy football of all formats. Every week we share with you the players with the lowest breakevens across AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & DreamTeam. Here are the players that offer the best breakevens heading into a new round.

PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
J. HayesRUC/FWD$102,40097.5-135
T. XerriFWD$208,20099.5-77
J. RacheleMID/FWD$184,80088-68
J. GinnivanFWD$199,90091.5-66
P. McCartinDEF/FWD$157,80075-58
D. StephensMID$167,80077-56
J. BoweyDEF$265,600104.5-54
J. Horne-FrancisMID$207,30086.5-52
B. McCreeryFWD$210,90086.5-50
W. BrodieMID/FWD$224,30088.5-46
P. NaishMID/FWD$189,60076.5-42
W. RioliFWD$225,30086.5-41
N. DaicosMID$193,80075.5-38
A. DaviesMID$202,50078-38
J. NewcombeMID$261,30093.5-34
C. MacDonaldMID$117,30051.5-34
M. HingeDEF$180,90067-28
P. CrippsMID$454,800147-28
M. RowellMID$342,900114-27
S. ConiglioMID/FWD$261,30089.5-26
J. CaldwellMID$266,70090.5-25
L. NealeMID$543,200169-20
T. GreenMID$430,000135-19
F. MaginnessMID/FWD$143,70051.5-19
L. FoleyDEF$244,90080.5-18
C. CurnowFWD$224,30074.5-18
L. MeekRUC$263,70085.5-17
I. HeeneyFWD$454,500140.5-15
G. HewettDEF/MID$399,000124-15
C. DurdinFWD$143,70047.5-11
L. McDonaldMID$372,100114-10
P. LipinskiMID$359,900109.5-9
J. GibcusDEF$171,30052-4
B. CloseFWD$354,700104-1
N. LarkeyFWD$327,30096-1
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PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
J. HayesRUC/FWD150,90086-117
N. DaicosMID$274,90088-75
J. RacheleMID/FWD$262,90085-73
M. HingeDEF$182,80064-60
W. BrodieMID/FWD$349,60093-59
P. NaishMID/FWD$260,90076-57
C. MacDonaldMID$172,90057-50
T. XerriFWD$297,40077-45
F. MaginnessMID/FWD$182,80055-43
W. RioliFWD$287,50073-41
S. ConiglioMID/FWD$402,50093-38
L. FoleyDEF$377,30087-37
D. StephensMID$282,70069-35
J. Horne-FrancisMID$292,20070-32
J.WardMID$256,90063-32
P. McCartinDEF/FWD$254,60063-32
J. BoweyDEF$368,40082-29
J. SmithDEF$205,90049-23
T. StengleFWD$276,80061-20
J. GinnivanFWD$359,10073-15
J. GunstonFWD$416,50083-14
C. DurdinFWD$182,80041-14
N. AnswerthDEF$301,60062-13
T. GreenMID$612,400118-12
R. GardnerDEF$191,90041-11
B. PatonDEF$353,50066-7
C. CurnowFWD$344,50066-6
J. SicilyDEF$473,70088-2
B. CloseFWD$494,60091-1
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PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
N. MartinFWD$266,000130-44
J. HayesRUC/FWD$319,00086-21
T. XerriFWD$354,00076.5-5
N. DaicosMID$390,00087.5-4
A. BlackMID$221,00067-3
J. RacheleMID/FWD$382,00084.5-2
J. BoweyDEF$420,00081.51
W. RioliFWD$358,000731
P. NaishMID/FWD$378,000762
J. WardMID$323,000633
C. MacDonaldMID$287,00056.54
J. Horne-FrancisMID$351,00069.55
W. BrodieMID/FWD$467,000935
P. McCartinDEF/FWD$325,00062.58
D. MountfordMID/DEF$208,000498
J. SmithDEF$262,000499
J. GinnivanFWD$389,0007310
C. CurnowFWD$376,00065.513
H. RalphsmithMID/FWD$277,0004614
T. BruhnFWD$343,0007814
L. FoleyDEF$450,0008714
T. BedfordFWD$216,0004315
C. DurdinFWD$231,00040.515
S. SkinnerDEF/FWD$197,0003318
F. EvansFWD$195,0003019
J. HamlingDEF$202,0003319
H. DixonRUC/FWD$197,0003219
J. MeadMID$213,00032.519
R. GardnerDEF$264,00040.520

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AAMI Community Series Review | Hawks Vs Tigers
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Read Time:3 Minute, 24 Second

It was a young Hawthorn unit taking on an experienced Richmond outfit. The result was no surprise, but we learnt plenty from a fantasy footy perspective.

Josh Ward

Arguably the biggest takeaway from the game. Lock in Josh Ward. He was sensational across the game, in my eyes he was the best Hawk on the ground. Ward won plenty of the ball, he made good decisions both with and without the footy & is a certainty to play round one.

Connor Nash

Late last year the Hawks started to deploy Nash as a centre bounce midfielder. That role was evident yet again throughout this match. As a forward listed player player he could be a viable stepping stone for us to consider. The challenge with going ’all in’ on him in salary cap formats is that the Hawks were without Mitchell and O’Meara. How much of this role is the Hawks new normal? Or was he only given the heavy midfield minutes due to the absence of options? Sadly, we won’t know for certain until four rounds into the season.

Jai Newcombe

Took his time to build into the game, but as the final siren went it was evident as to why Sam Mitchell is such a fan of his. Jai adds a defensive hard edge to the midfield and will allow other Hawk mids to play to their offensive best. I don’t mind him as a late draft pickup.

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James Sicily

The Tigers had a super tall forward line with Riewoldt, Lynch, Balta & a resting ruck all inside 50. As a result, Sicily had to play a more accountable role and found less opportunities to peel off and intercept. Other opposition teams won’t play this many tall forwards, that means he should be freed to play his standard intercepting role. James offers excellent value and with the lack of cheap options in the backline he’s someone that every coach needs to consider regardless of the format.

Connor MacDonald

The year of expensive cash cows continues with Connor plying his craft across the game. He looks was a fantasy star as a junior and we saw glimpses of it as the game went on. He’s already been hyped for a round one debut, and did his chances no harm with this game. I believe the hawks will be pushing to get 50+ games into him, Jai & Josh as a midfield trio as quickly as possible. If named round one, he’s a good chance to get multiple games early.

Noteable Outs

Tom Mitchell & Jaeger O’Meara

Dustin Martin

Dusty played… He looked good, and with so many doubts on forward premos he could just be the safest building block in this line.

Hugo Ralphsmith

Much has been made about the lack of cows in 2022. As a result, anyone priced under $300k that looks like they’ll get games we need to seriously consider. He’s available to be picked as a MID/FWD but is playing predominantly off halfback. I’ve been impressed with his development in the offseason, and as good as he’s looked I still have a slight concern. That is he’s a possible sub candidate most weeks. If named one round, I can see plenty making room for him at F5 or F6.

Trent Cotchin

Not fantasy relevant, but when he’s fit and firing he’s so important to the Tigers structure. If he can get 20+ games then for those hoping for Richmond to miss finals again you might find yourselves disappointed.

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Jayden Short

Over the past few years Jayden has shown he’s a genuine top tier defensive premium. This match just sent up a massive flare around just how good he can be. If you were hot on him before this match, understandably nothing has changed.

Daniel Rioli

Seems to finally has found his feet in the Tigers defensive 6. I couldn’t touch him in salary gap formats, but late on draft day he could be a brilliant flyer.

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