Tag: Free Agency

AFL Trade Review | Tim O’Brien
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Read Time:2 Minute, 33 Second

With Lachie Young departing the Dogs, they needed a replacement. Enter Hawthorn free agent Tim O’Brien. But is he fantasy relevant?

Career High SuperCoach Score: 125 vs Western Bulldogs (2021)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 71.6 (2019)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 102 vs Western Bulldogs (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 63.4 (2017)

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Impact on New Club

Much has been made about whether or not the Bulldogs back six is strong enough to be a premiership side. To be honest, I think it’s pretty close to it. Barring a stirring last 45 minutes of unstoppable Demon football, they’d be premiership players.

Alex Keath is the backline general alongside Easton Wood, who can play taller than his 187cm. Caleb Daniel, Bailey Dale, Taylor Duryea and Bailey Williams round out the weekly backline crew. Then it’s a toss of the coin between Ryan Gardner or Zayne Cordy for the other key position role. Unfortunately, I can’t see Tim O’Brien breaking into that mix. Instead, It’ll take an injury for him to get games.

The Dogs lost Lachie Young in the trade period, and while he was a key defender, he was more often used as a ruckman when playing. So ‘TOB’s’ inclusion is nothing more than an insurance policy.

Impact on Old Club

The Hawks are undertaking a rebuild. And while Tim O’Brien has shown glimpses of his ability, it’s not been consistent enough. So for Hawthorn, the best course of action is to allow the next generation to take flight and for him to move on.

Over the past few seasons, the swingman has found himself more inside the Hawks back 50. The KPD stocks are well stocked. James Sicily will return from an ACL. Denver Grainger-Barrass has shown moments in his first year. At the same time, Changkuoth Jiath was one of the breakout players in the league. Throw in the old-timers in Sam Frost and Kyle Hartigan, and it’s not a space that they lack in depth options. 

Fantasy Summary

In fantasy footy terms, I’ve got no interest in owning Tim O’Brien. His new side does love to hold onto the football and have a high possession game style. But any team with both Caleb Daniel and Bailey Dale in the back half, you can guarantee they’ll take a monopoly of those opportunities. I don’t see the disposal opportunities for him to thrive. 

A personal high average of 71 in SuperCoach is nothing to write home about. And in AFLFantasy, his 102 against the Bulldogs isn’t just a career high score, but also his only triple digit score. 

It’d take some injuries to their key stocks to have him in the best 22, let alone a fantasy option. Pass! 

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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AFL Trade Review | Luke Dunstan
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Read Time:2 Minute, 27 Second

It was no surprise to see a club pick up Luke Dunstan as an unrestricted free agent. But is Melbourne a good fit for him?

Career High SuperCoach Score: 141 vs West Coast (2014)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 93 (2019)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 140 vs North Melbourne (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 100 (2020)

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Impact on New Club

At first glance, you might be thinking Luke Dunstan has made a mistake by joining Melbourne. Why pick the reigning premier when you could’ve been a shoe in to play 15-20 games annually at another side? While that is a valid point, the move to Melbourne, I believe, is astute for both. 

For Dunstan, he moves into a club that’s clearly in contention for a premiership in 2022. Something that he likely wouldn’t be pushing for at some of these other clubs. Additionally, he adds immediate depth and squad pressure on their inside midfield stocks. 

Melbourne won’t go ‘back to back because guys like Clayton Oliver, Mac Gawn, Christian Petracca and Jake Lever have stunning seasons again. Instead, it’ll be the retention of their high standards plus the growth of their ranked 16-25 players that’ll push them to the moon. Dunstan is an excellent addition to this team, and his hunger to break into the 22 will help support the existing high club standards and culture. 

Impact on Old Club

Luke Dunstan was on the scrap heap at St Kilda. If he wasn’t moving clubs as an unrestricted free agent, he was going to be delisted. For the Saints to do this, they deliver the existing cattle of midfielders to cover him as a depth option. 

In short, the impact was none. Either way, he was gone. 

Fantasy Summary

There is no question that Luke Dunstan has a fantasy footy scoring pedigree. Even with just a tiny glance at last seasons 12 games, you can see it on full display. His top score of 140 against North Melbourne was one of four tons across the season. Additionally, Dunstan put on a further four scores between 90-99.

At his price point in salary cap formats, you can’t go there, even if injuries create opportunities. He won’t provide enough ‘fat on the bone’ to make money. Neither will he push his scoring to 105+, which he’d need to make him worth it.

No matter the depth of the draft league you are in, if you choose either Jack Viney or James Harmes, then Dunstan would be a highly desirable ‘handcuff’ option. Luke is the perfect cover for these players should either injury or suspension hit their inside midfield stocks. 

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AFL Trade Review | George Hewett | Patreon Exclusive
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Read Time:2 Minute, 39 Second

The move of George Hewett to Carlton is one of the confusing recent free agency moves. Here’s why. 

Career High SuperCoach Score: 154 vs Brisbane (2019)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 88 (2019)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 113 vs Melbourne (2017)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 75 (2019)

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Impact on New Club

In my analysis of AFL, I always try to look at the potential positive outcome. After all, I’m not and likely never will work in the AFL recruiting space. Regardless, the addition of George Hewett to Carlton seems a complete waste. 

To be clear, this is no slide on George. On the contrary, it’s focused on Carlton. When at his best, Hewett supplies strong accountability to opposition midfielders through defensive pressure and supplies 100% effort. These are skills that Matt Kennedy already possess, so too Ed Curnow. In addition, it’s also a role that Michael Voss could use to develop young talent like Brodie Kemp. 

The midfield mix at Carlton in 2022 fascinates me. First, of course, the Blues big three picks themselves, Sam Walsh, Adam Cerra and Patrick Cripps, is as good as any AFL side starting midfield when fit. But then, the supporting cast of Zac Fisher, Matt Kennedy, George Hewett, Paddy Dow and Jack Martin.  Let alone whether or not Zac Williams ever gets his chances there again. That primary group is fine, adding Hewett is trying to bring in a younger version of Curnow. 

Hewett is a solid player, but in my opinion, they are throwing away their salary cap and development opportunities of another kid. I believe they already have this skillset covered both in best 22 and with depth options. 

Impact on Old Club

Minimal, if anything, it does the Swans a favour. The departure of Hewett opens up the opportunity for Sydney to play James Rowbottom in this role. James has struggled to find room in the best 22 when Chad Warner and Hewett have played. Rowbottom’s appetite for the contest and pressure is sensational. Additionally, his speed around congestion creates some excellent separation between him and the remaining midfield inside unit. 

Fantasy Summary

In AFLFantasy and UltimateFooty, where in-season DPP’s are permitted, he picked up defensive status. Should he be allocated MID/DEF or pure defensive position, he becomes a player of interest in later rounds for draft coaches. 

On his day, George Hewett can score. In round 18 this year against the Giants, he posted a 134 in SuperCoach and 95 in AFLFantasty. In the season’s final two matches, he scored 91 & 96 in AFLFantasy and 102 & 106 in SuperCoach.  

I don’t see the scoring growth for classic game formats to warrant his selection even as a defender. But in drafts, I see him as a possible later flyer that could give owners a few handy weeks. 

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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AFL Trade Review | Jake Kelly | Patreon Exclusive
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Read Time:2 Minute, 39 Second

It came as no surprise that Jake Kelly was one of the first deals finalised from the offseason. The former Crow moved seamlessly into the red and black of Essendon and immediately helps bolster an already potent backline. 

Career High SuperCoach Score: 121 vs Hawthorn (2018)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 74.8 (2019)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 105 vs Melbourne (2019)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 67 (2019)

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Impact on New Club

The Essendon football club exceeded many expectations in 2021. And the arrival of Jake Kelly while not a glamorous addition, will round out their defensive unit nicely. He’s not a fashionable player, but defnesively he’s effective. For proof, check out this tweet from Champion data.

The inclusion of Kelly into the Bombers defensive unit will allow Jordan Ridley to move back into a more play making and intercept defensive role. Which as I’ll discuss shortly, is a positive addition for us fantasy coaches. 

Impact on Old Club

With Jake Kelly departing the club, it further allows Matthew Nicks’ Crows to embrace the rebuild. As well, it means Adelaide can now look at multiple avenues to fill the gap. I believe the best available replacement for Kelly is Josh Worrell. The former top 30 draft pick boasts a similar skill set to Kelly: the ability to play a lockdown role on either the smaller or taller opposition forwards. 

Additionally, Worrell (20) has impressive closing speed and penetrating left foot seen as key strengths. It should be a seamless transition of Worrell for Kelly and allow the Crows the flexibility of playing Doedee as the intercepting specialist. 

Fantasy Summary

Beyond a handful of matches across his 100+ game career as a Crow he’s not been a reliable scoring option. That’s including in draft formats. He’s still yet to average 75 across a full season and at Essendon I don’t see that happening with Dyson Heppell, Nic Hind and Jordan Ridley in the side. That said, Kelly is fantasy relevant. Not because of him, but what it does for Jordan Ridley and Josh Worrell. 

At Essendon it frees up ridley from needing to play as an accountable tall, and rather allow him to be come the interceptor and playmaker we saw earlier in the season. In the opening 10 games of the season his lowest non injury impacted SuperCoach score was 84 and it included some monster tons including a 136 & 147. While in AFLFantasy during the same stretch he only once fell below 77 (injury game removed) and popped three score 109 or above. 

With Kelly playing a lockdown role it enables Ridley to be freed up from playing a more accountable defensive role which he was forced to play towards the seasons end. 

The depature of Jake will also mean Josh Worrell will be a viable starting squad cash cow option at Adelaide. 

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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AFL Trade Review | Mabior Chol | Patreon Exclusive
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Read Time:3 Minute, 6 Second

Mabior Chol gets the award for the first player movement of the offseason. As an unrestricted free agent, he departed Tigerland for the Gold Coast Suns. But is it a fantasy footy relevant move? 

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Career High SuperCoach Score: 113 vs Brisbane (2021)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 67.5 (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 106 vs St Kilda (2019)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 60.5 (2021)

Impact on New Club

Injuries are an ever-present reality in all sports, but the Suns ‘talls’ brigade were smashed with injuries this year. As a result, it left them using players like Caleb Graham and Chris Burgess playing #1 ruck duties.

The addition of Mabior Chol instantly brings needed support and positional versatility. Despite only playing 30 AFL games, Mabior has shown he’s a more than capable option that’s capable of playing through the ruck in addition to being a marking presence up forward.

I forecast the Suns to use him as a key forward support to Ben King, who can then also  play a relief ruck role for 5-6 minutes per quarter. Athletically he’s shown he can do things that most ‘big men’ cannot do, so the Suns will be looking to expose opposition with that. 

Impact on Old Club

Thirty games over the past four seasons say it all for Choil and what his future would be like if he remained at Richmond. As much as the club would love to have him as an insurance policy for their tall forwards and rucks, he’d only ever be just that—an insurance policy for if and when injuries hit.

His departure and Callum Coleman-Jones do potentially open Richmond for the weakness of depths of some talls. However, Richmond still has some very useful stocks. Noah Balta missed the majority of the season and walks straight back into the best 22. Similarly, Ivan Soldo should be back from an ACL. The next level down of talls is: Ryan Garthwaite, Mate Colina and Ben Miller. 

Ultimately, the impact for the Tigers will centre on this, do they play Toby Nakervis as a solo ruckman, or will they use two? Don’t be surprised to see the Tigers use atleast one of their draft picks on further bolstering the talls stocks. 

Fantasy Summary

He’s shown glimpses in several games that Chol could be a really good player. It translated to some solid fantasy scores this season. In round 12 against the Bombers, he scored 97 in AFLFantasy and 93 in SuperCoach. A month later, he followed these scores up with a 78 in AFLFantasy and 98 in SuperCoach against his new team Gold Coast. 

His game against the Lions in 18 certainly is eye-catching from a SuperCoach perspective. He kicked four goals in that match and delivered a personal best score of 113.

Like with any tall, he’ll have some games where his scoring pops and others where he barely registers on the radar. Given his price point for salary cap formats will be in the low to mid 60’s (depending on the format you play), I don’t see enough scoring volume increases to make him a worthwhile option. 

The drafting formats of the game is probably the only place I’d consider him, and given he’ll likely have R/F status it might be a handy squad flexibility addition as a later round selection. 

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Ultimate Footy | Free Agency Pick Ups | Round 14
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Read Time:4 Minute, 57 Second

This is a very tough week for unique free agents as we have 8 teams on the bye in what is, thankfully, the final week of byes. This week’s list is made up of players that could be one-week wonders in your side, stepping in to cover for one of your premium players missing. They either have a favourable match up or are in a fleetingly rich vein of form but are likely to be kicked back to the bench or free agent scrap heap next week. And if they end up being keepers, then that’s a bonus but I wouldn’t count on it. Enjoy, and good luck!

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DEFENDER

Trent McKenzie – Port Adelaide
% owned – 57%
2021 average – 76

The addition of Aliir Aliir and a fit and healthy Ryan Burton into Port Adelaide’s back 6 meant that despite playing all but 2 games last season, McKenzie was on the outer for the first half of 2021. He did get his chance in round 10 and has made the most of it playing every week since.

In those 3 games, McKenzie has averaged 7 marks a game and has opted to kick instead of handball at a very fantasy friendly rate. Of his 51 disposals, 46 have been kicks! This stat has been helped by the fact that McKenzie has taken the most kick ins for Port in his 3 games and like a true fantasy player, has played on 100% of the time.

Finally, this week he comes up against his old side, Gold Coast, who are down on confidence and last week against Fremantle, allowed the likes of Luke Ryan, James Aish and Darcy Tucker to take 30 marks between them, all on the way to solid fantasy tons.

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MIDFIELD

Jai Newcombe – Hawthorn
% owned – 59%
2021 average – 87

What a whirlwind few weeks it has been for 20 year old Newcombe. He went from being one of VFL side Box Hill’s best players, to joining an AFL list, to debuting on a Friday night and setting a record for most tackles by a debutant in AFL history laying a whopping 14. His disposal tally was much more modest at 13 but the fact that he attended 16/25 centre bounces shows Hawthorn are not afraid to throw the kid in the deep end.

Teammate Worpel attended 1 more centre bounce than Newcombe but will miss this week’s clash against Essendon through suspension meaning the new Hawk will have every chance to build on his impressive debut.

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RUCK

Jonathon Ceglar – Hawthorn
% owned – 63%
2021 average – 68.8

What a time to put in a career best performance (and 2nd highest fantasy career score) for Hawthorn’s perennial back up ruckman. Watching youngster Ned Reeves take his spot and play very well in it must have lit a fire in Ceglar and he is a perfect candidate for a one week spot in your side if you own one of the many ruckmen on the bye this week.

Reeves was a late out on Friday night paving the way for Ceglar to come in and surprisingly dominate against one of the competitions hardest ruckman to play on, Tom Hickey.  He recorded the most hit outs on the ground with 35 whilst collecting 20 disposals and kicking a goal in what was a complete performance. It is just the third time in his career that he has recorded 20+ disposals in a game.

Reeves appears to have recovered from him ankle problem but it is hard to see him pushing the veteran back out this week at least. They are up against Essendon this week who in their last two outings have allowed ruckmen to score well. Before the bye, Chol hit a 97 against them in the Dreamtime game, and the week before that, Naitanui posted a handsome 117.

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FORWARD

Steven Motlop – Port Adelaide
% owned – 62%
2021 average – 67.3%

At his best, Motlop is an excitement machine that loves finding the footy but unfortunately for Port fans (Geelong ones too), his worst is the complete opposite of that. It is this hot and cold fluctuation that makes it hard to pick Motlop in any fantasy format but it does make him a great candidate for a one week gig in your squad as he comes up against the struggling Suns this week.

Port have won 5 games by over 30 points this year and across those games, Motlop has averaged 84. In the remaining 7 games which have been a mix of wins by less than 30 and losses, he has averaged 55.

Now, does this mean Motlop only plays well when Port Adelaide beat up on sides, or does it mean Port Adelaide only play well when Motlop is up and about? I’ll let smarter minds than mine work that out, but what I do know is, if you think Port will beat Gold Coast by more than 5 goals this week, get Motlop in!

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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UltimateFooty | Free Agency Pick Ups | Round 13
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Read Time:2 Minute, 52 Second

Just the three players again this week due to it being the second of three bye rounds.  Making the list are a couple of players fresh off the bye last week that have the potential to help your side in the second half of the year, particularly a North midfielder who could’ve been on his way to his first 100 average season if not for a bad injury in the pre-season. Speaking of injury, also on the list is a much-loved Collingwood forward who returned from a broken leg with a bang!

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BACKS

Riley Bonner – Port Adelaide
% owned – 37%
2021 average – 62.5

After 19 games in each of 2018 and 2019, Bonner was limited to 9 games last year as pressure for spots in the backline heated up. He was picked for round 1 but we then didn’t see him in the seniors again until round 9 when an opportunity arose in the shape of a Dan Houston injury. His game was unspectacular but crucially, it was enough for him to hold his spot when Houston returned the next week.
Before the bye, Bonner put together a solid game in the win against Fremantle recording 20 disposals and taking 9 marks and should grow in confidence with every game he plays.

MIDFIELD:

Trent Dumont – North Melbourne
% owned – 70%
2021 average – 58

Dumont’s average has increased every season of his career (if you account for shortened quarters in 2020) without ever having a true breakout. If this trend continued, 2021 was going to be the year Dumont averaged 100+ but a serious calf injury wrecked his pre-season and most of his season so far. North Melbourne were rightly cautious in how they brought Dumont back to AFL level, but it was a seemingly endless wait for those that drafted him.
He made his return in round 9 in his side’s first win of the year against Hawthorn and has now put 3 games together. None of these performances scream “pick me” to the fantasy world but this is the same guy that hit 5 scores over 90 (112 adjusted) last season. Coming back from a rest thanks to the bye, Dumont will be a real steal if he gets his fantasy career trajectory back on track.

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FORWARD:

Jamie Elliot – Collingwood
% owned – 55%
2021 average – 67.3%

Now THAT is how you return from a long term injury! The oft injured Elliot returned from 10 weeks on the sidelines with a resounding best on ground performance in Collingwood’s tight win over Adelaide. He kicked 6 goals straight playing predominantly forward but also had spurts in the midfield, attending 6 centre bounce attendances.
Elliot unfortunately has a long history of injuries having missed the entire 2016 and 2018 seasons but this time, he was returning from a broken leg sustained in round 2 and not anything hamstring or ankle related which are just some of the ailments that have plagued his career.
I wouldn’t expect 6 goal hauls every week, but a 70+ average from here on is very realistic as he has comfortably hit that in his last 5 or so seasons (when he gets on the park).

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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UltimateFooty | Free Agency Pick Ups | Round Four
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Read Time:4 Minute, 51 Second

Hi team, Jordox here!

One of my favourite parts of fantasy footy is nabbing a free agent off the waiver wire before anyone else does and watching him turn into a gun scorer for my draft sides. Each week I’ll bring you some names to consider for your Ultimate Footy side that will hopefully give you the edge you need. To be eligible, a player needs to be available as a free agent in at least 30% of Ultimate Footy leagues.

Still nothing of interest in the ruck line and slim pickings in the midfield but plenty of options elsewhere including a defender turned midfielder at Geelong who is an early nominee for tagger of the year!

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Defenders


Mark O’Connor – Geelong
% owned – 24%
2021 average – 76.7

The speedy Irishman has been a solid defender for the Cats for the last few years without ever really showing much in the way of fantasy scoring. In fact, before this season he had only ever collected 20 touches or more in a game twice. But in round 2, Chris Scott tasked him with tagging the reigning Brownlow medallist, Lachie Neale and he did a stellar job.

This week, he tagged another Brownlow medallist in Tom Mitchell and again won the battle clearly, recording a career high 26 touches and 8 tackles whilst attending more centre bounces than any other player on the ground with 20 out of 23. He is averaging 91.5 in this new role and is likely to gain DPP status as he has now attended 86% of centre bounces in rounds 2 and 3 after attending zero in round 1.


Jackson Nelson – West Coast
% owned – 59%
2021 average – 74.7

Nelson has been around for a while now and has slowly increased his fantasy average and flirted with UF relevancy, but this year looks to have solidified his spot in the back 6 at the Eagles. He scored a nice 91 in the AAMI Series clash against Fremantle and on the weekend just gone, joined in the kick-mark feast against Port Adelaide.

He took 10 marks on the way to 25 touches (21 kicks!) and his first fantasy ton, not including the adjusted 115 in round 18 last year. West Coast like the ball in his hands as he has taken the 2nd most kick-ins this year behind Hurn, playing on 100% of the time.

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Midfield

Oliver Florent – Sydney
% owned – 69%
2021 average – 78.7

The Swans first pick from the 2016 draft has been building steadily for the last few years learning from the likes of Parker and Kennedy and alongside a host of young Sydney stars, is now getting ample midfield opportunities. Still playing predominantly as a transitional half forward/winger, the exciting Florent has now attended 30% of centre bounces this season.

He had a career high 29 touches and a nice fantasy ton on the weekend against the reigning premiers and is only going to get better from here.

Paul Seedsman – Adelaide
% owned – 59%
2021 average – 80.3

There wasn’t a heap to choose from in the midfield this week so this one is a bit of a hit and hope but Seedsman is quietly putting together a decent season on the wing for the Crows averaging 6 marks a game. The veteran has never really reached his fantasy potential due to injuries and form issues across his career, but he is exciting to watch in full flight and would sit comfortably as your last midfielder.

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Ruck:

Nothing to see here again, try again next week!

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Forward:

Jack Silvagni – Carlton
% owned – 18%
2021 average – 59

Now in his 6th season, this son of a gun is starting to look a more commanding figure, not unlike his old man. He looked excellent in the AAMI Series match against the Saints scoring 90 thanks to 3 goals and 4 tackles and looked to be backing it up in round 1 against the Tigers sitting on 40 before injury ended his night just before half time.

Thankfully he only missed the one game and returned on the weekend with an equal career high 18 touches, scoring 78 and contributing strongly to Carlton’s first win of the season.

Peter Wright – Essendon
% owned – 51%
2021 average – 60

Crisis creates opportunity as they say and with injuries to young gun Draper and veteran Phillips, the Bombers’ ruck stocks were in crisis last week, leading to an opportunity for a role change for Two Metre Peter. Brought across from the Suns in the off season to play as a key forward and pinch hit in the ruck, Wright played permanent ruck on the weekend and looked solid.

He had the most centre bounce attendances on the ground winning 19 hit outs on the way to scoring 76 (albeit against weak opposition in McKernan and Carisle). The Bombers made a mess of the Saints so even though Phillips is now off the injury list and young Nick Bryan is edging closer to a debut, Wright looks to be the number 1 ruck at Bomberland for the time being.

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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