Tag: Taylor Adams

#23 Most Relevant | Taylor Adams

Dive into the fantasy prospects of Taylor Adams as he transitions to the Sydney Swans, examining his value and potential role in your fantasy football structures.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Taylor Adams is known in the AFL for his tenacious and hard-nosed style of play, making him a formidable presence in the midfield. His impact on the game comes from his exceptional ability to win contested possessions and his relentless tackling, showcasing his commitment and toughness in every match. Adams excels in clearances, demonstrating strength and skill in extracting the football from tight situations, which is crucial for setting up his team’s offensive plays.

Furthermore, his leadership qualities are invaluable on and off the field, often inspiring his teammates with his work ethic and determination. Adams also possesses a good sense of the game, can read plays effectively and makes decisive moves that can change the course of a game. His style and impact as a player make him a critical asset to his team and a challenge for opponents, highlighting his importance in the midfield battle.

Taylor Adams’ journey from being the vice-captain of Collingwood to his trade with the Sydney Swans underscores how quickly circumstances can change in the world of professional sports. Just six months ago, Adams was a key figure at Collingwood, a team on the cusp of AFL glory as they qualified for the preliminary final. However, fate took a turn when Adams suffered a hamstring injury, sidelining him for what would have been a pivotal moment in his career and causing him to miss the Magpies’ triumphant premiership win.

This setback sparked a significant shift in Adams’ career trajectory. With a strong desire to reclaim a prominent role in the midfield and seek a fresh start, Adams reached out to the Sydney Swans. This move effectively forced Collingwood’s hand, leading to his trade with the Swans.

His fantasy football performance last year paints a picture of inconsistency, with a notable difference from his historical scoring when placed in the midfield in contrast to the half-forward role he was forced into. In AFLFantasy, he averaged 76.5, scoring four tons, including one over 120, with 13 scores falling under 80. Similarly, in SuperCoach, his average was slightly higher at 78.2, with four matches hitting the ton, one scoring over 120, and 11 games scoring under 80. These statistics suggest a challenging season for Adams, marked by volatility in his scoring potential.

However, looking back a few seasons, Adams’ scoring pedigree, particularly when playing in the midfield, is undeniable. In 2021, he averaged 100.8 in AFLFantasy and 94.9 in SuperCoach, showcasing his ability to deliver solid fantasy scores. His performance was even more impressive in 2020, with an average of 109.5 in SuperCoach, the 15th-best average, and an adjusted average of 114.3 in AFLFantasy, where he was the 6th-highest scorer overall and notably played in every game.

These historical performances highlight Adams’ potential for high fantasy scoring, especially when positioned in the midfield. With his move to the Sydney Swans and a desire to return to a midfield role, Adams could recapture this form. Fantasy coaches considering Adams for their team will weigh his recent inconsistent year against his proven ability to deliver significant points when placed in his preferred midfield position. This contrast suggests that, with the right role at Sydney, Adams could offer substantial value and become a key player in fantasy teams once again.

Being priced in the mid-70s, Taylor Adams presents a tempting opportunity for fantasy coaches looking for potential high-reward forward options in their lineup. Given his proven track record and scoring pedigree in previous seasons, especially when playing in the midfield, Adams stands out as one of the rare forwards who could average 100+ in fantasy football. This potential is particularly compelling considering his desire to return to a midfield role with his move to the Sydney Swans. This could see him recapture the form that previously saw him achieving high averages.

In a typical fantasy football season, the upside presented by a player like Taylor Adams, with his proven potential and favourable pricing, is always a valuable consideration. However, this year, his relevance is magnified significantly due to the scarcity of genuine top-line premium forwards in the player pool. The rarity of forwards capable of averaging 100+ points makes Adams an even more critical asset for fantasy coaches looking to gain an edge.

The lack of established premium forwards in the game means that finding a player priced in the mid-70s with the potential to deliver significantly higher averages is akin to striking gold. Adams represents a unique opportunity with his midfield pedigree and the possibility of returning to a role that maximizes his scoring ability. In a year where the forward options are limited, securing a player with the potential to outscore his price point and rival the output of traditionally higher-priced forwards can be a game-changer.

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MY TAKE

In 2021, Taylor Adams had a high involvement in the midfield with a 77% CBA, which translated to a robust AFLFantasy average of 100 and an efficient 1.10 points per minute (PPM), despite a TOG of 76%—this season showcased Adams at his fantasy best, with significant midfield time directly correlating with high fantasy scoring efficiency and a substantial average.

The following season, there was a noticeable decrease in Adams’ CBA to 65%, coinciding with a drop in his PPM to 0.91 and a slightly lower TOG of 73%. This reduction in midfield involvement is linked to a decrease in his scoring efficiency, highlighting the impact of his role within the team on his fantasy output.

During last year, Adams experienced a significant reduction in CBA to 39%, which aligned with further decreases in his fantasy scoring efficiency to 0.80 PPM, although his TOG remained relatively stable at 76%. This sharp decline in CBA indicates a major shift in his role away from the centre bounces, significantly affecting his ability to score fantasy points.

Adams’ fantasy football output directly correlates with his involvement in centre bounces. Higher CBA percentages in 2021 led to his best fantasy performance, demonstrating the critical role of midfield involvement in enhancing fantasy scoring potential.

The data from 2022 and 2023 suggest that any reduction in Adams’ role in the midfield, as indicated by lower CBA percentages, results in decreased fantasy scoring efficiency and overall average. This trend underscores the importance of his midfield presence for optimal fantasy output.

Despite fluctuations in CBA and PPM, Adams’ TOG has remained relatively stable, indicating that while his on-field time didn’t significantly change, his role did, impacting his fantasy relevance.

Given these trends, fantasy coaches should closely monitor Adams’ role within his new team, particularly his CBA percentage, as this will be a key indicator of his potential fantasy performance. Increasing midfield involvement could signal a return to higher fantasy scoring efficiency and make him a valuable asset in fantasy football starting squads.

The Sydney Swans’ midfield mix in 2023, based on Centre Bounce Attendance (CBA) data, reveals a competitive and talent-rich environment. Luke Parker led with 75% CBA, indicating his role as a primary midfielder, followed by James Rowbottom and Chad Warner with 55% and 53%, respectively, showcasing their significant involvement. Callum Mills (37%), Errol Gulden (36%), and Tom Papley (35%) also had notable participation rates, highlighting the Swans’ strategy of rotating multiple players through the midfield to maintain dynamism and versatility.

Integrating Taylor Adams into this mix poses an interesting challenge and opportunity. His historical performance indicates a strong preference for being in the thick of the action, evidenced by his high CBA percentages at Collingwood. Adams’ inclusion could necessitate adjustments in the Swans’ midfield strategy, potentially altering the CBA distribution among the existing midfielders. His proven ability to impact games through contested possessions and clearances could see him taking on a significant role, possibly at the expense of CBAs from other midfielders.

The potential addition of James Jordon to the Swans’ lineup further complicates the midfield dynamics. If Jordon can crack the best 22, it adds another layer of complexity to the distribution of roles within the midfield, with more players vying for time in centre bounces.

The Sydney Swans have demonstrated that their midfielders possess considerable ‘fantasy chops.’ Players like Gulden, Mills, Warner, and Parker have all scored well in past seasons in fantasy football from the midfield. This depth and versatility mean that the Swans have a wealth of options, but it also raises questions about how these resources will be balanced with the arrival of Adams (and potentially Jordon).

Understanding how Adams fits into this equation will be crucial for fantasy coaches. His history suggests he could significantly influence fantasy scores if given a prominent midfield role. Observing the Swans’ preseason and early-round strategies will provide vital insights into how Adams and the rest of the midfield mix will be deployed, impacting fantasy football decisions.

For Taylor Adams to be considered a worthwhile starting selection in fantasy football, the analysis of his performance at Collingwood suggests that he needs a minimum of 50% Centre Bounce Attendances (CBAs). Last year, in games where Adams had 40% or higher CBAs with Collingwood, he averaged 85.6 in AFLFantasy and 87.4 in SuperCoach. While this demonstrates potential upside, for Adams to replicate or exceed the points per minute he achieved during his peak years (2020-2022) at Collingwood, a CBA threshold of at least 50% appears necessary.

The Sydney Swans’ midfield mix and the potential for Luke Parker to spend more time forward has been a topic of speculation for years. However, given Parker’s strong performance levels and durability, which arguably surpass those of Adams, it seems unlikely that Parker will significantly reduce his midfield presence. Furthermore, the Swans’ forward line, featuring Will Hayward, Logan McDonald, Isaac Heeney, and Tom Papley, is robust without needing Parker to shift roles. This composition suggests that Adams’ pathway to securing the requisite CBA percentage might not hinge on displacing Parker but rather on finding his place within the existing dynamic.

Fortunately, speculation on Adams’ role within the Swans’ midfield will soon be clarified, as Sydney is scheduled to play in the season’s opening round. This match will offer valuable insights into the team’s midfield strategy and Adams’ part. If Adams secures less than 50% midfield time, it might be prudent to consider fading him from the starting selection due to the potential impact on his scoring. Conversely, if he is granted substantial midfield time, whether through preference or due to the unavailability of others, it could make starting him a more attractive proposition for fantasy coaches looking to capitalize on his scoring potential in a new team environment.

The unique structure of fantasy football formats incorporating scoring from the opening round in price movements certainly adds an enticing layer of upside for considering Taylor Adams as a starting selection. However, the round five bye introduces a strategic complication that fantasy coaches must navigate carefully, especially concerning early starting squad priorities.

With notable players like Brodie Grundy, Nick Daicos, Errol Gulden, and potentially James Jordan all slated to play in the opening rounds but also sharing the round five bye, fantasy coaches are faced with a dilemma. Including Taylor Adams in this mix further complicates the decision-making process. This situation necessitates a careful game of prioritization and structural balance within fantasy squads. The players you value higher and believe will offer the most significant returns early in the season will ultimately guide your decisions on how many others from this group you can afford to start with.

The key to navigating this challenge lies in understanding the potential impact of the round five bye on your squad’s overall performance and structuring your team to mitigate any negative effects. This might involve selecting a balanced mix of players with different bye rounds to ensure your team remains competitive throughout the early part of the season. Additionally, considering players’ roles, scoring potential, and the likelihood of price movements based on early performances will be crucial in making informed decisions.

The abundance of similarly priced options is the positive aspect of considering Taylor Adams for your fantasy football lineup. If you decide to start Adams and he doesn’t perform as expected, the fantasy format allows for a straightforward sideways trade to another player who is showing better form. Similarly, if you choose not to start with Adams, you can trade him in if he demonstrates strong performance, ensuring you can still capitalize on his scoring potential at the right time.

Ultimately, Adams’ role within the Sydney Swans’ lineup is a critical factor that needs close observation. The opening round’s performance will be pivotal in assessing his position and impact within the team’s midfield mix. This initial showcase will provide valuable insights into his usage, midfield time, and scoring capability in his new club environment. Therefore, fantasy coaches should closely monitor Adams’ performance in the opening round, as it will significantly inform the decision-making process regarding his inclusion in fantasy squads. Whether starting with Adams or considering a trade-in option, his early games for the Swans will be the ultimate decider in determining his value and role in your fantasy football strategy.

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DRAFT DECISION

Taylor Adams enters the draft with a unique positioning based on his 2023 performances—ranked 27th in SuperCoach and 17th in AFLFantasy. His potential as an F1 (first forward selected) in AFLFantasy is evident, reflecting the optimism surrounding his scoring capabilities, especially considering the lack of premium forward options. This upside makes him a compelling choice as an F1 in AFLFantasy formats, where his midfield pedigree and potential role with the Sydney Swans could translate into significant scoring.

In SuperCoach, however, Adams might more realistically fit the profile of an F2 (second forward selected) option. This caution stems from a combination of his previous year’s average and the strategic approach of SuperCoach players who may prioritize forwards with a more consistent scoring history or those positioned in roles with clearer scoring pathways. The variance in SuperCoach scoring, which often rewards contested possessions and impactful plays, might lead coaches to reach for other options before considering Adams as their first forward pick.

My stance is less optimistic than others regarding Adams’ immediate impact in his new role, meaning I’ll likely miss out on drafting him in most leagues. This cautious approach is based on the need for clear evidence of his role within the Swans and the impact of the team’s midfield dynamics on his scoring potential before committing a high draft pick to him.

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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Five | Patreon Exclusive

Kane and MJ continue on their ranking of the keeper leagues. This tier has nearly 1/5 of the entire list in this tier. Check out who we have and why

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Taylor Adams

KANEOh, Taylor Adams, where do we start? Let’s go with the positives first, such is my nature. 
Simply put, the guy scores when he plays a full game. In the final nine games of 2021 he averaged 108 points and delivered seven tons. In 2017 he played every game and averaged 115 points and in 2020 he played all 17 games in the shortened format and delivered an adjusted average of 114. Those are uber numbers for any fantasy player.
The negative is his availability. Outside of 2017 and 2020 where he didn’t miss a game, Adams other games tallies since 2016 are 14, 19, 10 and 14 respectively. That’s way too much missed time and exactly why he isn’t in the higher tiers. You just can’t guarantee he’ll be as available for 85% of the season. 
Adams scoring power will always warrant a high pick and can certainly yield high returns but you’d want to support him with some durable premiums and a deep bench to not leave yourself exposed in the midfield. 
MJHe has the scoring power of a top two or three tier player, but he’s got the career injury concerns that mean picking Taylor Adams too high in a new keeper could be catastrophic. 
Since debuting TayTay has just two seasons where he’s played every match possible. Of the other 8 seasons, he’s missed anywhere from 3 to 12 games per year. 
The thing that you have to love about Adams is his relentless ability to score well. Since 2015 his seasonal averages hasn’t dropped below 90. 
Last year he averaged 100, but his final 10 games were fire. He scored 8 tons, with four of them over 115. At 28 years old he’s still worth the draft capital in this tier. At best he’ll give you 3-4 years of a certain 100 average. 
At worst, well it’s injury affected, but my encouragement if picking him or any player with a poor injury history is to support this draft pick with another pick. Select an extra midfielder, create security for yourself as history says you’ll need the cover multiple times. 
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Ollie Wines

KANEWhat a season 2021 was for Ollie Wines. A Brownlow Medal and a career-best fantasy year has him in the top 50 keeper prospects for the first time since 2016 for mine. 
After seven solid years of averaging between 90-100, Wines exploded to average 112 points in 2021 while playing every home and away game for the first time since 2018.
It’s no surprise with an 112 average that we saw both Wines’ floor and ceiling rise this year. His lowest score was 70 points but in 20 games he scored more than 90 points and 15 of those were triple figures. 
His ceiling was on full display in the second half of the season. Pre-bye he averaged 106 points but post-bye he averaged 118 which featured his three highest scores of the year – 154, 151 and 140. 
I’d never seen Wines display the running power he demonstrated in 2021 so I think we have to declare that he’s a different player to those previous years. However, I can’t see him recreating his numbers of this year going forward. For me he’s a 100-107 option averager and an absolute rock in your midfield for another three to four years.  
MJFor years Ollie Wines has been a good, but not great keeper option. From 2014-2020 he’d consistently averaged between 91-100 and provided a level of reliability for his owners.
In 2021 the reigning Brownlow Medalist found another gear. He averaged career high possession numbers (32), up to five per game from his previous best year. In addition to this, his uncontested and mark count were personal bests. In short. Ollie developed an outside part to his game, where he no longer become an ‘inside bull’ only, but a rounded midfielder. 
It’s no surprise he averaged 112, score 15 tons and dropped his scoring beneath 85 just once. 
At 26, we’ve still got 5-6 years of peak Wines performances. But will they be close to his Brownlow year or the previous 5 seasons? For me, I believe it’s somewhere between the two. 
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Caleb Daniel

KANECaleb Daniel and Jayden Short I’m going to couple together because from a fantasy perspective they deliver basically the exact same thing. 
25 years of age: comfortably five years of premium output ahead Long term defenders: no concern about losing back statusPremium scorers: they’ve already demonstrated 85+ scoring and are in their prime now High floor, low ceiling: both only hit 120+ once in 2021 but also they rarely scored under 80 (Short did it four times, Daniel six)
I’m not going to waste words here. With Daniel and Short you’re getting a year-in year-out top 10 defender for the next five years. 
MJDid you watch the Grand Final? If you did, I probably don’t need to create much more of a compelling case for you to own Caleb Daniel than that game. 
The bulldogs love to get the ball into his hands to create both rebounds off defensive 50, but also damaging plays heading into their own attacking half. 
Since making the transition to the backline he’s averaged 93, 88 (BCV), and last season an 86. 
Daniel does possess a higher range of scoring deviation than I’d like, but like with anyone who can throw up a poor sub 50 score, you need to be able to counter it with some 120+ performances to balance that out. Thankfully for Daniel, he can do that.
At 25, he’s still got another 6-7 seasons of playing that core distributor role for the Doggies and for as long as he plays as a defender, he’ll be one of the safest 85+ averaging backs you’ll get in a keeper league. 
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Jayden Short

KANECaleb Daniel and Jayden Short I’m going to couple together because from a fantasy perspective they deliver basically the exact same thing. 
25 years of age: comfortably five years of premium output ahead Long term defenders: no concern about losing back statusPremium scorers: they’ve already demonstrated 85+ scoring and are in their prime now High floor, low ceiling: both only hit 120+ once in 2021 but also they rarely scored under 80 (Short did it four times, Daniel six)
I’m not going to waste words here. With Daniel and Short you’re getting a year-in year-out top 10 defender for the next five years. 
MJAs Kane has highlighted, the parallels between Caleb Daniel and Jayden Short are scarily similar. 
Jayden is rated elite in the league for meters gained, disposals and rebound 50’s. Further to these elite ratings, his kick to handball ratio is 3:1. Which is perfect for us keeper coaches. 

Since the start of 2020 Short hasn’t missed a game. That year he averaged 90.87 in a BCV equivalent.  To further prove it wasn’t a scoring anomaly 
In 2021 he averaged 93. That consisted of nine tons, and in just two occasions did his scoring dip sub 70.
At 26 years of age at the start of next season, not only is in his prime of scoring he’s also got long term defensive positional stability. GUN! 
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Max Gawn

KANEMax Gawn’s keeper stock obviously isn’t what it was three to four seasons ago but he’s still one of the best rucks in the game and a player that goes a long way to winning now. 
Despite Gawn hitting 30 years of age prior to the 2022 season commencing there’s no signs of deterioration in his game. Gawn delivered a 109 average in 2021 across all 22 home and away games. Gawn’s floor was remarkable again in 2021 with only three scores sub 90 (72, 73 and 84) to go with 15 tons (four of which were 130+). 
There’s some concern in the community that Luke Jackson’s continual growth will severely hamper Gawn’s scoring but I don’t see the major dip. We have to remember that 2022 is only season three for Jackson so he’s still a number of years away from taking the burden of a No. 1 ruck role. A positive for Gawn owners may arrive in 2024 in the form of forward status as Jackson continues to see more centre bounce action. 
It’s probably wishful thinking to expect more than three premium seasons out of Gawn but even if it’s just two I think you can push hard in that time with him to secure a premiership. 
MJAre his best years really behind him? It’s a narrative in the community, but I think it’s false.  Check out these seasonal averages  
2018: Avg 1112019: Avg 1112020: Avg 123.6 BCV2021: 108 AVG – 3 scores below 90, 15 tons, 5 120+
As Kane has touched on, his average from this season is much more aligned with the ‘normative’ scoring for gawn rather than his exceptional 2020. 
No doubt there’ll be ruck sharing with Luke Jackson, both as he develops but also as the Demons try to prepare Max for a big few years of premiership defence. 
A potential positive is he’ll likely end career as RUC/FWD DPP. The question Gawn owners need to ponder is how quickly (if at all) you handcuff him to Luke Jackson?
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Rowan Marshall

KANEIt’s when not if for Rowan Marshall in a keeper. The fact that he’ll be 26 years of age at the start of 2022 and has already delivered premium numbers in the past three seasons is remarkable. 
The clear handbrake that every Marshall owner is waiting to be released is Paddy Ryder. While Ryder is in the Saints team he’ll be their primary centre bounce ruckman as that’s the best part of his game. This currently has relegated Marshall to second-fiddle and spending the bulk of his time forward. 
The positive with Marshall’s current role is that he’s a ruck-forward and yet he can still score. The season that will see Marshall’s stock rise to an all-time high will be the year he’s primary ruck and starts the season with forward status. That one year will be a massive advantage for the coach that owns him but even after that I see him as a 100 averaging ruck and that’s a piece that will hold any side in great stead going forward.
MJThe year is 2024… which rucks are at the top of the tree?  Is Brodie Grundy  still there? Some might have Sean Darcy  or even Reilly O’Brien. All validate candidates. But I propose another option? Rowan Marshall. By then, Rowan might well be the #1 ruck option in the game.

Marshall might be sharing ruck duties with Paddy Ryder for now, but I believe in 12 months time this RUC/FWD will be playing as a sole ruck. 
In 2019 when he was solo ruck he averaged 99 and posted twelve tons.  Last year he averaged 89 from 13 games with just five tons. Here’s the interesting split, all of these hundreds were when Ryder wasn’t playing. In fact he averaged just 77 from the seven games they played together. However, in the six games he rucked solo he averaged 103.7 

The beauty of Marshall for one lucky owner is you’ll get a Unicorn season from him in the next season or two. Where he’s RUC/FWD eligible but playing as a pure ruck, meaning he’ll likely average 100+. 

Hugh McCluggage

KANEIt’s rare to see players increase their average each year but through his first five seasons that’s exactly what Hugh McCluggage has done. 
At 23 years of age and fresh off his first 100 point season McCluggage is already in rarified air. Even if he was just to maintain his current output he’d be a top 25 midfielder for the next seven years, which can’t be understated. 
I do think there’s a bit more improvement in McCluggage though. Currently, he plays predominantly an outside role but he’s certainly capable of playing on the inside if required and it will only take a couple more CBA’s to push his average to 105 and then he’s inside the top 20. 
The other factor you have to love about McCluggage is his availability. In the past four seasons he’s played every game bar one! 
While he might never deliver a 110+ season I think his reliability and availability will make him an excellent keeper for many years to come. 
MJI’m not sold Hugh McCluggage ever gives us the monster 110-115+ season, that’s due to him likely being more outside impacting midfielder. But that said, I don’t see him dropping under 95-105 for the next 8 seasons.
Last season he averaged 100, it included thirteen tons, eight of these were over 110, and just twice last season his scoring dipped under 74. 
This is a breakdown of his scoring spread from last season: 50% from kicks, 16% HB, 15% marks, 14% tackles, 3% goals. That’s a player who’s not dependent on one ‘variable’ to score.  An unheralded stat line for Hugh is around his durability. In the past four seasons missed one game. 
The human suitcase may never become the ‘monster’ elite like others on this list, but he will be a crucial cog in keeper leagues for the better part of a decade. 
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Caleb Serong

KANEWhat Caleb Serong has already demonstrated in his first two seasons is phenomenal. Since earning his debut in Round 4 last year Serong hasn’t missed a game, playing 36 straight. 
In that time he’s already shown a massive ceiling. In Round 6 this year against North Melbourne he scored 143 points on the back of 35 disposals, seven marks and seven tackles. For comparison, fellow Tier 5 midfielder Hugh McCluggage has a career-high of 128 points despite playing another 70 games. 
It wasn’t just a one-off either with Serong reeling off back to back to back tons to finish the season (118, 117 and 116 in Round 21-23). In addition, to a ton and three 90s in the reduced gametime of the 2020 season.
While the departure of Adam Cerra will certainly help Serong I don’t see it as the main reason for his improvement in 2022 and beyond. The real upside for Serong is that his time on ground is extremely low (70% range) and that should continue to increase as he gets more preseasons under his belt. The other thing that will help Serong is his role. This year he was tasked with numerous run-with roles in the early part of the year before being released to hunt the ball in the later part of the year. I believe that was all part of his learning and won’t be something we see often going forward. 
At 20 years of age there’s a decade of 100+ scoring on the horizon for this Fremantle rising star. 
MJNailing the picks inside the top 50 of a brand new keeper is critical to immediate and sustained success. Caleb Serong has the forecast potential to be among one of the best players in the years to come. 
If you want a long term 105 averaging midfield with potential for more you’ve got to jump ahead of where a redraft or seasonal draft league board would rank them. 
Last year he split his season playing some defensive minded midfield roles before being released in the last month. It was his final three weeks where he scored 18, 117 & 116 that really caught people’s attention. Across the 2021 year he averaged 82, which was made up of five tons including a personal best 143. 
In a BCV era 2020 we still saw the raw potential of scoring brilliance.  That year he took six games before debuting with a BCV ton (aka an 80+) score. But it was back to back 90’s before he scored a pure 101 (aka 120 in BCV world). 
He’ll get plenty of preseason hype among the AFLFantasy community, so if you want to own him you can’t expect too many to sleep on him. 
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Matt Crouch

KANELet’s start with the positives surrounding Matt Crouch. From 2017 to 2020 he averaged between 105-110 points and played 90 percent of games. Throw into the mix that he’s 26 years old and should have 3+ years of elite scoring ahead of him, you’d be fair to ask why he’s not in a higher tier.
Well that’s where we do have to address the negatives. When you miss a whole season through injury, alarm bells are rightly going to go off. Particularly, when the injury is a groin and is prone to linger and re-occur. 
There’s also some concern around how Adelaide will structure their midfield and amount of opportunity Crouch may get with Laird and Keays coming off impressive seasons and the plethora of youth the Crows are trying to develop. I still believe Crouch is one of their top centre bounce midfielders but any dip in attendance would negatively impact his scoring. 
Hopefully by the time you have to make a decision on drafting/trading Crouch we have an update on how his body is progressing through the preseason. Clearly there’s some massive risk if he’s unable to get on the park but there’s also plenty of upside with his scoring power. 
MJOne of the greatest dangers in keepers is that with established players you go ‘too far back’ in their scoring history. By osmosis, you can start to value them at a potentially inflated price and begin paying a draft position based on who they’ve been not what they’ll deliver. 
In the case of Matt Crouch, I don’t believe that’s a risk you need to worry about. At 26, he’s still right in the prime of his career and should he 
Looking back at his most recent season, 2020 was a bizarre season for Crouch. Before getting dropped in round four due to poor form, Crouch was averaging 64.3 (80 adjusted) and had a top score of 72. When he returned in round five he scored 4 tons, 4 additional scores over 90, 2 over 80 and had the lowest score of 75. In these final 13 matches, he averaged 93.9 (adjusted 117)
The years prior he averaged 106, 104 & 106. Clearly, the risk with Crouch isn’t scoring ability, it’s what level does he return to post a season ruined by injury? That is the big question coaches will need to answer before investing in him.
10 Players Who Missed The 50 Most Relevant

Every season after I conclude the 50 Most Relevant, we love to look back at some of the unlucky players to miss the countdown. Here are 10 Players Who Missed The 50 Most Relevant

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Sam Docherty

12 months ago, Sam Docherty was one of the hottest names across fantasy football. After 5 rounds, he was averaging 121 in SuperCoach an adjusted 117 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. His remaining 11 games got nowhere near this level, but it’s a reminder of his high scoring capacity. Was that due to role? The Carlton game style? Or just a natural regression as his body fatigued under a full season of condensed footy? Perhaps it’s a combination of a few of those elements.

With Adam Saad’s addition and the injury returning Nic Newman, we could see less opposition attention and great freedom of role to allow the Blues co-captain to flourish once again for 2021. If the planets align, he’s a genuine top 3 candidate in our defensive line.

Andrew Gaff

He’s more an AFLFantasy & DreamTeam selection than SuperCoach, but Andrew Gaff is one of the safest premiums going round. He regularly plays 20+ games every season and in DT/AF has been averaging 110 consistently.

The knock on him is probably his lack of ceiling, making him not a reliable captain option. But with that said, Gaff will thrive in return to full length matches.

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Taylor Adams

Coming off a career high SuperCoach average of 109 and an adjusted equivalent of 114 in AFLFantasy, Taylor Adams is no scoring slouch. But we’ve known that for seasons. Back in 2017, he averaged 114 in AFLFantasy and 107 in SuperCoach. So even without the departure of Adam Treloar, ‘TayTay’ has shown he can score

The issue has always been around his ability to play 20+ games. If he can do that again, he’ll be back up towards the top scoring midfielders in 2021.

Jaidyn Stephenson

The highly talented junior fell out of favour at Collingwood last year. And when Jaidyn Stephenson had the opportunity to bail out, he took it and headed straight to Arden Street.

In Collingwood’s Grand Final season of 2019, he averaged 80 across the formats. Not bad for a player who was predominantly used inside forward 50.

At North, the club has been vocal about their desire to play him through the midfield. Generally, when we get a forward eligible option, who’s playing in the midfield, that often turns into a good thing.

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Isaac Cumming

Maybe it’s a story of 12 months too early for Isaac Cumming being a key part of our fantasy football sides. The GWS Giants defensive unit has undergone an offseason overhaul, with Heath Shaw, Aiden Corr and Zac Williams departing the club. This opens up plenty of opportunities for the talented youngster.

Given the genuine question marks around cash cows, spending up that bit extra for his likely job security isn’t the worst idea if he shows scoring promise in the AAMI community series.

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Will Phillips

In a season where rookie security is looking even thinner than ever, North Melbourne’s Will Phillips might be worth paying the cash for. In 2019, Phillips averaged 22.1 disposals across his 10 NAB League matches and showed his class in the contest. Don’t expect Matt Rowell or Sam Walsh style fantasy scores, but he should be handy regardless.

Stephen Coniglio

Like Sam Docherty listed higher, Stephen Coniglio was one of the most popular starting squad options for 2020. However, he delivered a poor season by his lofty standards, including seeing the club drop him.

History suggests that ‘Cogs’ is a regular 105-110 midfielder across all the formats. And as the skipper for the club for his second season, he’s no doubt striving to get himself and his Giants back into the league’s top echelon.

Sometimes our recency bias makes us not consider the obvious jet standing right in front of us. Perhaps ‘Cogs’ will be the one that got away from fantasy coaches in 2021 who were too proud to consider him.

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Toby Nankervis

The injury news of Rowan Marshall and Braydon Preuss has left fantasy coaches scrambling for a second ruck. For those not able to afford a ‘set and forget’ strategy, then ‘Nank’ is one of the better options.

The knee injury to Ivan Soldo means the Tigers will likely stay him as a sole ruck for the season, with various talls playing a supporting role. In 2017 & 2018, when the Tigers adopted this strategy, Toby averaged 86 & 89 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 88 & 98 in SuperCoach.

Last year in the semi, preliminary and Grand Final, he had a three game average of 134 in SuperCoach and 79 (98 adjusted) in AFLFantasy. If he starts the season like that, it’ll be an inspired selection.

In the opening three games of the year, the Tigers play Carlton (Pittonet /De Koning), Hawthorn (Ceglar/McEvoy) and Sydney (Sinclair/Hickey). It’s hardly a daunting three weeks.

Nakia Cockatoo

Pretty simple. He’s cheap, he’s got DPP and is currently injury free. If he’s named round one, he’ll be the most popular rookie priced player in starting squads.

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Jordan De Goey

The departure of Adam Treloar has opened up some midfield minutes in the Collingwood side. Jordan De Goey has shown that when he’s allowed to attend centre bounces and play through the midfield that he’s one of the most explosive and dominant options in the game. A lack of endurance and also Collingwood’s need for goals have kept him often playing forward

All track watchers have spoken about his dominant preseason, and the club has spoken publicly about giving him a greater midfield presence. If he can get over his slight preseason injury setback, then he could be 2021’s version of Christian Petracca.

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Fantasy Football Winners and Losers from the 2020 Trade Period

Winners

It doesn’t take a doctorate to recognise the importance of Braydon Preuss not only to the GWS Giants structure but his fantasy football. Over the past few seasons, Preuss has found himself behind both Max Gawn and Todd Goldstein as the lead ruck candidate. While I’m sure the minimal opportunities have frustrated him, an apprenticeship under these two premier rucks will only serve him well.

Despite only playing under 20 games, he’s shown some fantasy pedigree including a personal best 108 in AFLFantasy and 140 against Carlton back in 2019. Added to this, he should hold RUC/FWD status making him the perfect starting squad candidate either at R2 or as a forward where he can later turn into an insurance policy in the rucks if required.

Will Zac Williams truly be given the midfield time? If he gets this at Carlton, regardless of his injury history Zac’s gonna push deep into being one of the most selected players in 2021. For over half a season in 2019, Zac was allowed midfield opportunities at the Giants and his fantasy footy numbers are very strong.

In the final 11 games of the year, he posted an average of 103 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and scored seven tons including three over 120. While for SuperCoach he averaged 107 and posted 8 tons including a season-high 143 against the Kangaroos. In terms of scoring differential for pre and post-injury that’s +19 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and +13 in SuperCoach.

Josh Daicos went past Tom Phillips in the eyes of the Collingwood coaching staff. As a result, the wingman was forced to morph his game to play across the half-forward flank. The departure of Isaac Smith means that ‘Flippa’ slides straight into the wing role at the Hawks

Twelve months ago I would never have said it, but heading into a new season, Tom looms as highly relevant fantasy player. This is for two reasons. Firstly, due to him being played out of position, he averaged considerably less than previous years and offers value for money. Additionally, due to him being played out of position, he’s a certainty to pick up forward eligibility. In 2018 he averaged 95 in AFLFantasy and 90 in SuperCoach, a return to these numbers would catapult him well and truly into the top 10 forwards.

Geelong landed arguably the biggest name in the trade period with the recruitment of Jeremy Cameron. Should his addition to the Cats see him bounce back to his best he has 20+ points per game based on his previous season’s averages. Certainly, he’s a stepping stone to consider. However, Cameron isn’t the biggest fantasy winner.

Rather it’s what his recruitment means for Patrick Dangerfield. As 2020 went on Danger spent increasingly more time forward as the Cats moved away from a two tall forward structure to be a Hawkins/Danger pairing. The inclusion of Jeremy should enable the Cats to play Dangerfield much more through the midfield and only have to rest him forward.

I’m of the opinion that Patrick should also gain MID/FWD DPP in 2021, making him one of the likely most selected fantasy football players

In a similar vein, the departure of Adam Treloar only further opens up the scoring potential for Taylor Adams. This year they played eight games together, in it he (Adams) averaged 89 in AFLFantasy and 102.4 in SuperCoach.

For the nine games he played without Treloar he averaged 93.8 in AFLFantasy and 116 in SuperCoach. A differential of almost five points per game in AFLFantasy and over thirteen in SuperCoach. No Treloar means a fit TayTay is relevant again in 2021.

Finally, I’m a big fan of what Port Adelaide have done especially at the drafts over the past few seasons. The clubs famous 2018 draft brought int both Connor Rozee & Zac Butters who are incredibly exciting and damaging players. The challenge for the Power since their arrival has been about how much they balance them in their time through the midfield and always up forward.

For this reason, it’s why I like the recruitment of Orazio Fantasia. If he can get his body right then Fantasia provides a dynamic and electricity that few in the league can replicate. Orazio along with an aging Robbie Gray should be able to take the baulk of the forward craft, allowing Zac and Connor to boost the midfield minutes.

Should this take place I suspect we’ll see them move from 60%-70% time forward to potential a 50/50 split giving them a chance to boost the fantasy scoring substantially. Something both Rozee and Butters have displayed an ability to do on numerous occasions

Losers

Is it too big of a call to say the entire Western Bulldogs midfield? The retention of Josh Dunkley and the inclusion of Adam Treloar makes me very nervous about selecting any Bulldogs midfielder. Their Coach in Luke Beveridge has shown historically a tendency to move players positionally at a whim.

I love the breakout potential of Bailey Smith, the consistency of Jack Macrae and the hot form that Marcus Bontempelli has shown right now I’m very uneasy about selecting any Bulldogs midfielder.

The inclusions of Brad Crouch and Jack Higgins will do wonders for St Kilda’s midfield depth and forward craft. But if you planned on buying up on either of Jade Gresham getting more midfield time or Seb Ross pushing back into the guts then be prepared for the bad news. Both are destined now to be it, players, in that midfield unit unless injuries hit the Saints hard.

Darcy Parish owners in keeper leagues would have been nervous this whole trade window. The inclusions of Josh Dunkley and Jye Caldwell could’ve placed a certain end on his midfield time.

However, with only one of them getting through the door, it isn’t as bad as it could be. Nevertheless, the combination of a new coach and a central new player into that midfield has me worried that the former top 10 pick will never become the fantasy star many had hoped for.

2020 will not be the year for coaches to jump on a prospective breakout for Tim English. The addition of Stefan Martin while it will be great for the Bulldogs premiership aspirations it will diminish both players scoring potential.

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Way too early 2020 watchlist

The AFL Trade and Free agency period is well underway, and despite it being months before the prices and positions are revealed at The Coaches Panel we wanted to take a look at a player from each club that we have pencilled onto our 2020 watchlist.

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Adelaide Crows

Ned McHenry | Injuries have stalled any chance of a debut, but the positive means he’ll be basement price for us in 2020. He offers everything the Crows midfield unit lack. High pressure, work rate, skills and is a bundle of excitement.

Brisbane Lions

Alex Witherden | One mans trash is another’s treasure. Sadly Alex has had a drop of about 10 points per game and has burned plenty of fantasy coaches this year. With Luke Hodge hanging up the boots (again), then I think we need to seriously consider the potential value he presents. 

Carlton Blues

Charlie Curnow | I might be on my own here, but two seasons ago he was one of the most excited breakout candidates. This year he scored his lowest seasonal average since his debut. On top of this, he may be eligible for a possible small discount due to missing 11 games, and we could have a considerable value pick on our hands. The severity and impact of his basketball-related knee injury have on his preseason will determine whether or not he stays here for long.

Collingwood Magpies

Taylor Adams | Another frustrating season battling injury resulted in just ten games. The one positive for next year is he should get an injury discount of a minimum of 10%. Throw this on top of a low 90’s average, and he could be one of the best-underpriced premiums of 2020. 

Essendon Bombers

Devon Smith | It’s low hanging fruit in terms of how noticeable a candidate he is, but with many bombers having minimal fantasy footy relevance he is the one to highlight. Last season he played only seven games before injury which guarantees him to get some form of discount. Whether that’s higher than 10% will be determined by each formats creators. The bonus is he was already averaging 25 points below his 2018 season numbers, meaning the possible value could make him one of the most selected players in 2020 mainly if he retains forward eligibility which I believe he will.

Fremantle Dockers

Andrew Brayshaw | With Ed Langdon and Brad Hill both out the door in the trade period and David Mundy in the twilight of his career the time is right for Andy to emerge and take a key midfield role alongside Nat Fyfe. Priced at 70 in all formats he looms as a ripping breakout candidate if given the opportunity.  

Geelong Cats

Sam Menegola | Have you picked up on the theme yet that a lot of this ‘watchlist’ players are premiums from previous seasons but had injury impacted years? Sam’s one of those with injuries limiting him to just nine games, meaning he should qualify for a 10% discount. Added to this he also experienced some inconsistency in midfield minutes which forced his average to drop of 15-20 points. 

Gold Coast Suns

Jack Bowes | A broad view may look at his seasonal average around the mid-’70s this year and not think he offers much. Sometimes as a fantasy coach, we need to look a little deeper into the numbers to see the value. In the opening five games of the year, he was going at an average of 92 in AFLFantasy and  99.8 SuperCoach. To top it off with him playing 14 games it might just qualify for injury discount. Fingers crossed. 

GWS Giants

Stephen Coniglio | An inconsistent year for Cogs when it came to his body. After playing 22 games last year, he could manage just the 15 in 2019. He dropped 7 points per game in terms of average from the previous year, but coaches need to take the time to analyse for the scoring drop. One of the key reasons behind the fall was due to his round 17 game against the Tigers where he got injured on 0 points, causing chaos for the 20%+ of coaches that owned him. Without that game, his averages look much healthier of  111 in AFLFantasy and 108 in SuperCoach. Missing seven games might mean he misses getting an injury impacted discount on his starting price. The reality is we have one already due to that Richmond game. I’m very keen to start him in 2020, arguably priced 10 points under his scoring potential of 110. 

Hawthorn Hawks

Tom Mitchell | He missed 2019 with a broken leg and had he not got injured he would’ve been one of the most selected players in all forms of the game. He’s eligible for a sizeable discount, meaning for many he’s an instant starter. However, I’m more keen to see how he moves and looks through the preseason. With ‘Titch’ even with a hefty discount, he’ll still be among one of the most expensive players in the competition, that’s a lot of money invested in your starting squad, and you must get it right at that price tag. 

Melbourne Demons

Angus Brayshaw | Seven months ago the fantasy footy community was ablaze at his potential after storming home last season. He started 2019 and even ended it OK, but during the majority of the season due to a combination of role change and form, we saw his fantasy scores plummet. Gus dropped over 15 points per game avg across all formats and became a serious burn man for many coaches. The positive for us is as we enter into 2020 he will be priced next year in the mid-’80s.  His scoring potential can be further 20-25 points per game above pricing. The first step in his fantasy footy resurrection will be the Demons can land some wingman with skills and pace. If they do, it’s a piece of the puzzle that’ll see Angus moved back into the midfield role required to score well. 

North Melbourne Kangaroos

Luke Davies-Uniake |  If he gains FWD Status then I’m going to consider him. LDU  presents seriously huge third-year breakout potential, especially as he needs to start getting the midfield opportunities at Arden street. 

Port Adelaide Power

Ryan Burton | Injuries have plagued him over his career, but both at the hawks and now at Port, we’ve seen that a fit Burton holds plenty of fantasy relevance. During a four-week window post-bye, we saw his scoring potential. In SuperCoach he posted scores of 105, 96, 79 & 108 while in AFLFantasy it was 93, 110, 69 & 92. If he can stay fit, then he needs to be on your watchlist. 

Richmond Tigers

Dustin Martin | This all depends on if he gains forward eligibility or not. If He’s a MID/FWD, then I’ll find it very difficult to pass on him. His role in the AFL finals may determine whether or not he qualifies as forward eligible.  

St Kilda Saints

Dan Hannebery | A frustrating year for the former Swan who only managed to play in 5 games this year. The positive of this is two-fold, firstly he will receive an injury impacted discount due to the number of games he missed. Secondly, when he did play scored well with four of his five games seeing him score 90+ including two hundreds and an average in high 90’s across all formats
He may not present the same value as he did this year, but if Dan gets through the preseason unscathed, he is genuine underpriced premium.

Sydney Swans

Oli Florent | Place him as a breakout candidate, because as this year went on, he just got better and better. Florent possesses line-breaking speed, uses the ball well by foot and is one of the shining lights for the Swans both for now and the future. Three of his final four games in AFLFantasy he scored 91, 113 and 98, while in SuperCoach he scored 82, 102 and 106. He’ll be priced at his seasonal average of 69, but I have confidence that he could well be a stepping stone well worth considering.

West Coast Eagles

Nic Naitanui | Are you considering not starting with a set and forget ruck strategy next year? Then for SuperCoach, you need to consider NicNat seriously. Over the past 18 months, injuries have been cruel to NicNat, but we have seen that when he plays, even in the limited game given this year, he can score well. Last year he averaged low 90’s from just three games, meaning he will be discount eligible. In addition to this, his past three years averages are 96, 105, 103 so Nic could well provide excellent value as a stop-gap to a top tier ruck if you’re looking for a different approach.

Western Bulldogs

Josh Dunkley | After a slow start he was one of the most damaging forward options of the season, and with a likely loss of forward eligibility, his ownership numbers could plummet due to him being a midfielder only. However, with 14 of the last 16 games seeing him score 100+ and many of them captaincy capable scores he could be a sneaky point of difference in your starting side.

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