The breakout to the elite scoring tier for Andrew Brayshaw was always a question of when not if. And in 2022, he answered it for us. Now at 23 and stepping into his prime, Brayshaw is primed to deliver yet another strong fantasy AFL season.
Name: Andrew Brayshaw
Club: Fremantle Dockers
2022 Highest Score:
181 Vs St Kilda (AFLFantasy)
189 Vs St Kilda (SuperCoach)
Career Highest Score:
181 Vs St Kilda | AFLFantasy (2022)
190 Vs Richmond | SuperCoach (2021)
SuperCoach Price: $615,600
AFLFantasy Price: $995,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $1,020,000
WHY IS HE RELEVANT?
That was some season from Andrew Brayshaw. He elevated himself from a good AFL midfielder to the upper elite echelon. He averaged career-high disposals while finishing fifth in the AFL for uncontested possessions, 8th for disposals, 10th for effective disposals and 10th for tackles. To round out this phenomenal season, he was awarded selection in the All-Australian team, won the club’s best & fairest and snagged the AFL PA’s MVP award.
His AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season was an absolute banger. He scored thirteen tons across the season; nine went over 120, and six were above 130. It featured 141, 144 & 181 as his three highest scores. Alongside this high volume and frequency of tons was a further four scores between 90-99, and all year his scoring dipped below 80 in just two matches. By the conclusion of the 2022 season, he had the third-highest average going at 112.3 and was ranked number one for points! A superb achievement.
Over in SuperCoach, he also scored thirteen tons over the seasons, eight of which were above 120. In six of those, he went 130+, and he gave us his second-highest-ever SuperCoach score in round two against the Saints by scoring 189. Alongside these thirteen tons were six additional scores between 93-96. That’s 86% of his game last year, where he scored 93 or higher! Last year he had just two scores below 80, with his lowest a 77. By the end of the year, his average of 111.8 has him ranked thirteenth by average across the game, and tenth for points
2022 isn’t just an isolated one good season, he’s been building his scoring over the past three seasons, and in 2021 he gave you his first season where he averaged 100+ across all formats. During the 2021 season, he scored thirteen AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons; five were above 120 and two higher than 135, including his best of 156. In addition, he had three more scores between 90-99. That’s 80% of his 90 or above scores last year. From a scoring basement, he had three scores under 70. All of these were when he copped a heavy tag. Closing out the season, he averaged 104.2
For SuperCoach, he scored twelve tons, with a lowest of 109 and a top score of 190. He had seven tons over 120, four additional 90-99 and just three scores beneath 70. His 107 is ranked nineteenth for all midfielders
When a guy comes off the back of a 110+ average across the formats, it’s hard to expect more growth; if anything, you’re hoping they can back it up. But with Brayshaw, the belief of an increase from 111 in SuperCoach and 112 in AFLFantasy last year does have merit. When you look at his scoring trend over 2020-2022 and then consider how he scores, the upside is potentially huge!
Last year he had just eight games where he had 30+ possessions. He had just two games with more than six marks and seven with eight or more marks. The crazy thing is when he puts it together, you get those monster ceiling games, as you saw against St Kilda in round two, where he scored over 180 across the formats. If he can do that a few times a year, he’ll elevate himself to the tiers of scoring that only Tom Mitchell, Dane Swan and Tom Rockliff have been able to tread across formats.Embed from Getty Images
You don’t end up as the top-scoring prospect in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and top ten in SuperCoach and not become someone you consider seriously in your starting squad. If you haven’t even looked at starting with Andrew Brayshaw, you’re missing a trick. Yes, he’s expensive, but that’s because he’s scored at this level before! He’s still got a little bit of natural growth in him. In the first thirteen games of the season, he averaged 118 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 114.6 in SuperCoach; that’s 3-5 points per game of upside.
When you drill into the scoring numbers of Brayshaw, there is an interesting little trend. Over his AFLFantasy/DreamTeam career, he hasn’t scored more than three consecutive tons. While in SuperCoach, he has yet to do more than three in a row over his past two seasons. The thing about a stats line like this is that you can view it in two lights. Firstly, for him to still go at such a high-scoring clip and do it with a low consecutive nature of tons is only a good thing. Remember that history isn’t always an indicator of the future. Maybe the big run of tons is coming this year. The flip side is that without historical data of being runs of tons, he’ll always feel like he gives you a window of cheaper availability. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
Without question, the tag is coming to Brayshaw. We saw that happen in numerous games across 2022. And it’ll happen again in 2023. What’s pleasing for his current & future owners is he’s already shown signs of using his workrate and other scoring avenues to ensure his basement scores aren’t disasters. Whenever a player is tagged, we see a scoring blip, but with Andrew, these have yet to be in the 50s or 60s. Rather, the high 70s is more than tolerable when you know the next week they’ve got the ceiling capacity to go 170! Currently, at training, he’s getting tagged in every match simulation by James Aish. This isn’t just for Andrew’s benefit, as Aish did a few negating roles last year and seems destined to do it again. It’s good training and learning for James.
If you’re starting with Andrew, you’re comfortable placing the vice-captaincy or captaincy on him early in the year. If your not, he’s then just an upgrade target. He must be viewed as such because you can only afford a small number of options in his price range in your starting squad. And if they’re not VC/C candidates, why are you spending so much coin?
The positive news for coaches is that Brayshaw and Fremantle have a remarkable early fixture. They play Saints (away), North (home), Eagles (home), Crows (away), Suns (home) and lastly, Dogs (home). That’s as good a run as coaches could expect. It is even more exciting because St Kilda is one of Brayshaw’s favourite teams to score against. In his last three matches against them, he’s averaged 142.6 in AFLFantasty/DreamTeam and 144.3 in SuperCoach!
One thing to keep in mind, though, is the tag. Late last year, Marcus Windhager showed his ability to play the role well, and under Ross Lyon at both St Kilda & Fremantle, he’s shown a desire to use a tagger.
Even if you don’t start with Brayshaw, you’ll keep a close eye on him, especially after his round 12 byes. He could be the perfect player to run through the following three weeks of multi-byes. He’ll play Richmond, GWS & Essendon during that time as a reference point. I’m not planning on starting him, but I want to have him in my team coming out of the byes.
Where Andrew Brayshaw goes off draft boards will be based on two variables on draft day, the format you use & how desperate the community is to lock away an F1. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s in the mix to be selected in the first round and will only drift a little beyond the first few selections of round two, if at all. While in SuperCoach, he’s an M2 selection and will likely go in the late second – early third portion of the draft.
JOIN THE CONVERSATION
WANT EARLY ACCESS?
Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd