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Whether it’s an overall ranking or league focus, achieving success in fantasy footy requires so many elements to work. One of the keys is trading in the right player at the right time. So here’s a look back at the moves that using hindsight was the season defining moves of 2021.
Embed from Getty ImagesAaron Hall
If you’ve played fantasy footy for a few seasons, then you’d know that Aaron Hall has a fantasy pedigree. He spent the better part of two seasons delivering tons.
Some would say the perfect time to get Hall was at round 3, where he busted out a 99 & 123 in AFLFantasy and 81 and 131 in SuperCoach. And whole that might be a valid perspective. However, I think 2 weeks later was better. So there you got him after his concussion, and since round 7, he hasn’t had a misstep.
Since round 7, he’s scored 12 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons; 9 of these were over 120 and 5 over 120. In this run, his lowest score has been 88, and he’s averaged 118.9 in this 15 game run. For SuperCoach, over the same stretch of games, he posted 14 tons and 5 over 120. His only score under 100 has been 73, and he’s averaged 121. Safe to say, Hall might have been the most influential early trade in fantasy coaches seasons.
Josh Kelly
Josh Kelly is an absolute gun! You don’t have multiple seasons averaging 110+ across the formats and not have some fantasy footy pedigree behind you. But over the first 6 weeks of the year, the recently signed Giant for life was struggling to score. As a result, Kelly was being used predominantly across the half-forward flank and averaged 85.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 90.8 in SuperCoach.
However, in round 7, his midfield role returned. For reference, it coincided when fellow elite user Lachie Whitfield returned to the side. From round 7 to now, he’s scored 11 tons from his 14 games, including 10 consecutive from round 7-17. During this stretch of games, he’s averaging 112.
For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s had just one game in the past 14 where his scores have dipped beneath 96. An average of 111 is exactly the sort of returns we’ve come to expect from him.
Kelly’s (like all on this list) is a testament to timing and buying low on players. But, history told us, when fit, he scores very well!
Darcy Parish
Injuries create opportunity, and that’s exactly what happened for Darcy after Dylan Shiel went down with a long term injury. In round 5, Shiel went down injured, and at that point, Parish was averaging 88.2 in SuperCoach and 86 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.
From this point onwards, he’s averaged 114 in AFLFantasy, which included 11 tons, with 4 of them over 140. In SuperCoach during this same 16 game stretch in SuperCoach 110.8 including scores of 190, 166, 162 & 152.
To put it simply, in 2021, when Dylan Shiel plays, he averages 81.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, but without him, he averages 117.7. That’s a differential of 36.1. In SuperCoach with Shiel, he averages 86, and without it’s 128.1. A differential of 42.1.
Sean Darcy
Do you remember when Brodie Grundy got injured and was ruled out just before the bye rounds? I do. I ended up writing a piece on my trade suggestions for him. In it, I said that ultimately ‘hindsight’ well tell us what’s the right move. Clearly, trading into Sean Darcy was the correct choice.
Even before this injury, Darcy was showing some scoring potential. In round 11, when the injury happened, Sean was coming off a 4 game average of 104 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 113 in SuperCoach.
However, from round 12, when the trade via Grundy could’ve been made, he’s scored 8 tons from his 10 games in SuperCoach. He hasn’t scored below 90 and has given scores of 190, 183, 156, 150 & 140. Since this point, he’s averaged 135.4.
For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, the scoring ceiling isn’t as high, but it’s just as valuable a trade. Over the past 10 weeks, he’s scored 5 tons, plus two additional scores over 90 and averaged just on the ton.
Taylor Walker
One of the decisions that defined 2021 was for those who traded into Taylor Walker ahead of round 3 commencing. Whether you traded him in from an underperforming premium (like Jordan DeGoey) or an injury forced to move ‘Tex’ was a huge win for owners. The following four weeks, he did his job with scores of 136, 99, 74 & 76 in DreamTeam/AFLFantasy and 130, 106, 85 & 103 in SuperCoach.
Heading into round seven, his price had increased by $320,000 in AFLFantasy, $197,000 in SuperCoach and $245,000 in DreamTeam from his starting price. Not a bad quick money maker and points on-field performance.
Jack Ziebell
Do you remember the pain entering into round two? Patrick Dangerfield had just been handed a three game suspension, and the debate amongst coaches was about whether to hold or trade. Hindsight would say that trading Danger was clearly the right call, especially after suffering an injury on his return game.
Jack was the form forward of the competition over the first three months of the season. In SuperCoach, he averaged 115 up till the bye rounds, just three scores under 100 and only one score to this point under 89. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, over the first 11 games 109, posted some monster scores of 139, 140 & 170 and didn’t drop below a score of 82. So chances are if you started with or traded into Ziebell early, you had strong rankings rise to start the year.
Embed from Getty ImagesJordan De Goey
Trading him out of your team in the front half of the season could’ve been equally as defining as trading him back in. But certainly jumping on after suspension and bye round was a perfect time. By then, he’d already had three solid games against the Crows, Cats and Demons, so it wasn’t a ‘blind jump.’ So even though you could’ve got him at a steal price at the end of round 10, nobody was trading into him then.
Since round 16 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s scored: 124, 117, 120, 93, 125, 94 & 98. While in SuperCoach over this same timeframe he’s gone 114, 124, 114, 80, 138, 85 & 119. In this seven week stretch, he’s been going at an average of 110 across all formats. HUGE!
Brayden Fiorini
If you were a Patreon in 2020, you might recall Kane & I spoke about him in our 50 keeper targets series. In it, we highlight his fantasy potential and that he’s a fringe option at the Suns. However, with injuries to key midfielders like Hugh Greenwood, ‘Fio’ found himself seven weeks ago with a chance to prove himself as someone who belongs at the top level.
And prove himself he has. Over the previous 7 weeks in AFLFantasy, his lowest score is 101. He’s had 4 scores over 110 and is averaging 115. He’s now priced at $803,000. But at round 16, you could’ve picked him up for just $639,000.
The scoring consistency might not have been as high in SuperCoach, but the value has been ever better. At round 16, Brayden was priced at $301,700. Now he’d set you back $523,500. Over the past 7 weeks, he’s scored 5 tons and is averaging 110. If you brought him in as an M8-M9 swingman or a ‘buy low’ and hope option at M7-M8, he’s been an absolute find for you!
Touk Miller
I couldn’t get through this article and not mention him. In reality, getting Touk in anytime this season has been huge. But really, post-bye is his super run. At his bye round, he averaged 117 across the formats, and many would’ve assumed that’s a phenomenal start, but this is as good as he gets.
For his first 10 games of the season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he was averaging 117 and posted 7 tons. In his past 10 games, he’s averaged 125 with just one score under 100.
Over in SuperCoach, his first 10 games of the season, he averaged 117.9 and posted 7 tons. In his past 10 games, he’s averaged ? with hasn’t dropped his scores under 100.
Jy Simpkin
‘After his bye’ is a phrase I’ve already used on multiple players (and still more to come.) But Simpkin is a testament to backing in a player’s scoring history even when he’s given you minimal faith in his delivery in that current season.
Over the first 11 games of this season, Jy has only 4 SuperCoach scores over 90 and only one above 110 and was averaging 89.9. While for AFLFantasy, he’d posted 3 tons and averaging 86.2.
Since the bye, he’s posted 7 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons and had just one score under 90. In this 10 game stretch, he’s currently averaging 105. In SuperCoach, he’s also posted 7 tons, twice scored 99 and is averaging 106 in his past 10. It’s not as big as others on this list, but still a win for owners.
Embed from Getty ImagesChristian Petracca
Christian started the year super strong. Over the first 8 weeks, he rarely had a poor game. An average of 111 in AFLFantasy & 103 in SuperCoach over the first 8 weeks is more than handy. As good as it was, the back portion of the season has been even better.
If you traded him in from round 9 onwards, he would have returned 9 SuperCoach tons, 7 of them over 110 and 2 148 or higher. In addition to the ceiling, he’s still yet to go under 90 since round 9. In these past 12 games, he’s averaged 128. Meanwhile, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s scored 9 tons, 8 of them over 110 and 3 over 135. An average of 122. Well done if you picked him up then.
Jack Steele
OK, much like Touk Miller above, this feels like a stretch given how good he’s been across the totality of the season. But in truth, the perfect time to get him (if not for the whole season) was really after the bye. Before it, he still had a sold average of 112 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 118 in SuperCoach.
From round 15 onwards in SuperCoach, he’s hit the ton every week, has had four scores over 145 and has gone under 130 twice. During this 8 game stretch, he’s averaging 137. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s also had 8 consecutive tons, including 5 scores of 138 or above, including a 162. Since this hot stretch started, he’s got an 8 game average of 133.
Matt Kennedy
For years the Carlton footy club has been looking for additional support to Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh. The club thought Zac Williams was the fix, but it had the best option under their nose in Matt Kennedy. As a forward eligible option, Matt’s become one of the ‘hot hand’ forwards since he played as a midfielder. I mean, what a novelty. Playing midfielders as midfielders!
It would’ve taken a pair to get him in at the start of the bye round, given he hadn’t played for months and had an average that even at a rookie price, most coaches would’ve said no to. But he’s been exceptional over the last 9 weeks since getting back into the side and playing midfield.
Four tons, plus an additional three scores between 93-95 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, has seen him average 96. Over in SuperCoach, he’s gone just as strong. 5 tons, four of them 115+ and an average of 94. Yes, he’s had 1 or 2 stinkers in this stretch, but given the price point, trading into him at any time through this run has been a raging success!
