One of the most underrated fantasy footy premiums over the past two seasons is Geelong midfielder, Cam Guthrie. With coaches clamouring to spend the megabucks on the big premiums, Guthrie looms as one of the best sneaky options in 2022.
PLAYER PROFILE
Name: Cam Guthrie
Age: 29
Club: Geelong Cats
Position: Midfield
2021 Highest Score:
153 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
163 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)
Career Highest Score:
153 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2021)
163 Vs Hawthorn | SuperCoach (2021)
2021 Average:
109.9 (AFLFantasy)
113.3 (SuperCoach)
SuperCoach Price: $616,700
AFLFantasy Price: $922,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $937,100
WHY IS HE RELEVANT?
One of the biggest dirty little secrets of fantasy footy over the past few seasons has been the consistency of Cam Guthrie. Since moving from a defined wing role into a centre bounce midfielder, he’s become a reliable scoring premium across the formats. His combination of elite endurance, two-way work rate and a team game style that rewards him for getting into open space is a perfect combination. It allows him to always be in the game, whether it be picking the uncontested ball or through his high-level clearance work.
Cam ranks elite in the league for effective disposals, uncontested possessions, stoppage clearances, and midfielders’ marks. He finished seventh for total uncontested possessions and top twenty for stoppage clearances, handballs and effective disposals. Over the year, Guthrie delivered sixteen AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons from twenty games last year, including four over 130. He had just four games where he failed to ton-up, and in the one match he was unable to go above 80, he suffered an in-game injury in round 16. On averages, he’s ranked eleventh in. the competition and has a higher average than Sam Walsh, Clayton Oliver, Marcus Bontempelli and Darcy Parish.
For SuperCoach, he had arguably a better if not comparable season. He delivered fifteen scores of 100 or more, including eight over 120 and six above 130, including his career-high 163 against the Hawks. On averages, he ranked as the sixteen best players in the game and has a higher average than Brownlow Medalist Ollie Wines, Callum Mills, Christian Petracca or Andrew Brayshaw.
These scores rubber-stamped his premium status after breaking out in 2020. In his All-Australian season, he played every game and averaged 103 in SuperCoach. He scored ten tons, four over 120, two over 140 and had just three under 80. Overall he ranked thirtieth in the competition for total points. Similarly, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged an average of 84.8 (106 adjusted) and scored five pure tons, seven additional scores 80+ and only had five games where he missed the 80 range. Remember, these covid affected shorter games; it meant ’80 was the 100′ for 2020. By the close of the year, he was fifteenth for total points.
To go with these scoring capabilities is that his low ownership means coaches have been getting optimal impact. To illustrate this, he ended the season in just 16% of teams owned him in SuperCoach and 10% in DreamTeam. Anytime you can get a guy with this combination of lower ownership alongside multiple seasons of proven performance, it certainly supplies a gold mine for coaches to farm.
Over the previous two years, there have been two types of coaches, those that have owned Guthrie and secretly loved it and those that have discounted him as someone having just a few good weeks. It’s time for historical non-owners to awaken to the possibilities he could provide you in 2022.
Embed from Getty ImagesMY TAKE
One of the offseason stories has surrounded what Geelong will do this year. Over the past two seasons, the club has fallen short in big moments, and the premiership window is nearly shut. But will we see a drastically big difference in the game style or player positions? As an outsider looking into the club, I don’t forecast anything moving away from this. That’s based on two primary factors.
Under Christ Scott Geelong, one has always played a high skilled possession game plan. Second, the cattle of players available to them have spent multiple years training and recruiting players that fit within this structure. So until the cats evolve into a complete rebuild, I believe they’ll continue with the players and game plan. And that is good news for those considering Cam Guthrie in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam.
If you’re considering him a starting option, you need him to be a captaincy consideration most weeks. SuperCoach is the format where he has a high frequency of 125+ performances historically, but as good as he is, I’d struggle to advocate for him as an M3 or M4 premium in your team. Could you start him over a Sam Walsh, Clayton Oliver or Zach Merrett? Across the formats, it’s not something I could get behind. Let alone that we have comparable options at a lower price point.
Instead, I’d pursue him as an upgrade target during the season. Given the lack of ceiling in some formats, he’s unlikely to hold, let alone increase his starting price. However, Cam Guthrie could be the perfect midseason move at the correct cost and the right time.
DRAFT DECISION
On draft day, there’ll be one coach that’ll have Cam Guthrie in their sights ahead of everyone else. That’s the coach that enjoyed owning him in 2021. Last year he had an average draft position in UltimateFooty of 64. He won’t be available that late this year, as he’ll be off the board as an M2 on most drafts. Depending on the league, his range will be from the mid-third round to the late fourth.
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