With Bachar Houli departing the club, many fantasy football coaches expect Jayden Short to take the next step as a premium defender. But will he be able to push his average over 100 in 2021?
PLAYER PROFILE
Name: Jayden Short
Age: 25
Club: Richmond Tigers
Position: Defender
2021 Highest Score:
122 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
129 Vs Collingwood (SuperCoach)
Career Highest Score:
122 Vs West Coast | AFLFantasy (2021)
169 Vs Geelong | SuperCoach (2020)
2021 Average:
93.3 (AFLFantasy)
98.3 (SuperCoach)
SuperCoach Price: $535,200
AFLFantasy Price: $783,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $796,100
WHY IS HE RELEVANT?
Over the past few years, Jayden Short has emerged from fringe option role player to a core member of the Tigers defensive six. Short is an elite rebounding defender who offers an elite run & carry game and quality decision-making and ball use. Last season in the league, he ranked third for the total number of rebound ’50s, sixth for kicks and bounces and tenth for total metres gained. The departure of some of their aging premiership starts does hurt Richmond, but with him still just 25 years of age, the future is still bright at Tiger land. He’s only now just starting to hit the peak of his powers.
Playing all 22 games last year, Short returned another strong AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season. He posted nine tons, five additional scores 90 plus and only dipped his scoring beanth 80 in four games all year. He’s currently ranked tenth for averages and the sixth-best defender; Short scored 100 more points than Jordan Dawson, who we highlighted just days ago in this series.
The story is just as promising in SuperCoach. By averages based on his 2021 scoring, he’s the sixth-best defender in the game for total points and ranked eleventh for averages. He posted twelve tons, four of the above 120 and just had five games all year where he failed to score over 80. He ended the season with an average of 98.
These numbers have further enhanced his premium status after a breakout in 2020. That year he again played all 17 games, averaged 97 in SuperCoach, scored seven tons, and had three sub 80 scores. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged an adjusted 91 (93 pure) and scored four times over 80, remembering that in the shorter quarters season, that ’80 was the 100 of 2020.’
Increasingly over the past two years, the club has looked to him as the key user out of Defensive 50. And arguably, this could further increase with the departure of Bachar Houli. Historically, Richmond isn’t a fantasy friendly scoring team, but With no Houli, he could have a monopoly as the primary rebounding and distribution avenue.
Embed from Getty ImagesMY TAKE
So no Bachar Houli through retirement, that must mean we see a bump for Jayden Short? Statistically, there are grounds for that case to be made. In twelve games he played with Houli last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 91.8 & 92.8 in SuperCoach. And for the ten matches he played without him, he averaged 3.4 more points per game in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 12.3 points in SuperCoach. If that small sample size of games holds, that means he could elevate his game to be above 105 in SuperCoach and to touch 100 in AFLFantasyDreamTeam. It’s limited data, but small trends like this can make significant differences for coaches. And given his relatively low ceiling, it’s stats like this that might see him start to turn his 80 games into 90-95’s and his 105-110’s in 120+ performances.
When I look at the defenders available to use this season, I can only see a few defenders with legacy scoring capabilities to average near or over 110. They are Lachie Whitfield, Jake Lloyd and Aaron Hall. All have either seasons (or large portions of one) where they’ve delivered this. However, beyond them, I see a bunch of very talented and reliable scorers, but none that might ‘burn’ me if I go against them in my starting squad. It’s why a combination of Hall/Whitfield/Lloyd can appear to be popular when you look at other coaches teams.
In 2022 we’ve got plenty of consistent 90+ defenders across the formats with players like Daniel Rich, Jack Crisp, Jordan Dawson, Tom Stewart, Dyson Heppell etc. But there’s not a bounty of defenders seemingly able to take the next step into the next level. For coaches to have confidence in starting Short over some of these other options, they’ll need a narrative of how Jayden could outperform them. At 25 years of age, I don’t see a world where scoring regression hits. So the only direction of his scoring is to hold or increase.
Short already has the majority share of the kick-ins. He took 115 last year, Nick Vlastuin is the next in line, but with just 40 all year, it’s a long gap between the two. And the 28 Houli take might be enough to boost Jayden’s Short marginally, but I wouldn’t bank on it making a significant jump in scores.
Will coaches have the luxury to start three premium defensive options this year? Ultimately, it’s still too early to tell. In January every year, it’s easy to build an exciting squad with every cash cow you pick that are ‘certain to play’. But as the weeks go by, suddenly, certain lines stand out for the best value stepping stones and the cash cows with the best scoring and security. So suddenly, your two premium defender lines and six premium midfield line might need some tweaking.
Can he emerge and crack the magically 100 average? I can see a world where this can happen. And the absence of Houli makes that much easier to see. For me, Jayden Short is right in the mix at D3 across all game formats. The downside feels like he’ll hold, but if he gets any of the upsides mentioned above, coaches might have atop five defenders for the season.
DRAFT DECISION
Given where his 2021 averages land him, Jayden Short will be a D1 on draft day. It wouldn’t shock me if someone reached for him as a late third-round selection. But the reality is it’s more normative to see him go through the fourth. I can’t see him sliding outside of the top 40-45 picks overall. He’s too durable and consistent to pass up.
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