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Possible DPP Additions for UltimateFooty in 2022
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Mid-January, UltimateFooty always adds some additional dual positions players into the draft game on top of those already allocated for SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam. We’ll officially announce the positions UltimateFooty will add to the game in the coming days. But, for now, here are some of the players I’d love to see gain DPP.

Jaidyn Stephenson – ADD CENTRE

The addition of a centre status is usually one of the least helpful in bumping a player’s draft rankings up. But for Jaidyn Stephenson, it’s certainly a valid gain with Stephenson spending his share of time across the wings for North Melbourne. Of course, his relevance is as a forward, but the DPP addition will add some squad versatility.

Jordan Dawson – ADD CENTRE

I admit that I was surprised he didn’t have DPP already. He had a split role across the season. Pre bye he was playing almost exclusively as a rebounder out of the Swans defensive 50. Post by, he was heavily visible across the wing. My only slight hesitation in advocating for this DPP gain is if he plays off the half-forward for the Crows, it will restrict him from gaining the more valuable DPP.

Brad Hill – ADD CENTRE

Brad Hill has picked up some draft relevance as a back as an Eternally a wingman. But in reality, he’s a wingman. So again, it won’t add an increase to his draft ranks, but it might just save some coaches with some squad flexibility, especially in those that the player pool is deactivated.

Patrick Dangerfield – ADD FORWARD

It’sIt’s been a long time since UltimateFooty has awarded a big name in these start of season additions. In 2022 they’ve got the opportunity to add some excitement and to have clear, justifiable data to make the moves. Patrick Dangerfield leaps off the page as an obvious forward inclusion. When Champion Data allocated the positions in December, many were shocked to see the Brownlow Medalist as a Centre only.

Nat Fyfe – ADD FORWARD

Name alone; if Nat Fyfe picked up DPP his season, it would make many coaches super keen on selecting him in 2022. And depending on the format, you play he could well be one of the more relevant additions for the year. The Dockers skipper spent an ever-increasing amount of time forward as his young teammates started to take over the responsibility of the midfield.

While not the most damaging set shot at goal, Fyfe is an imposing forward presence and is as challenging to match up against inside forward 50 as at centre stoppage. The departure of Adam Cerra to Cartlon might even see him move back more into the midfield. However, the biggest obstacle to selecting him is getting him back to full fitness after another injury setback in the offseason. We’llWe’ll discuss that more in the preseason, especially if UltimateFooty award the status.

Rowan Marshall – ADD FORWARD

With Paddy Ryder missing multiple games last year that Rowan Marshall played, it didn’t shock me if he lost DPP. But I think in the totality of the season, Marshall spent enough time starting and then playing inside forward 50 to retain his R/F DPP. So if Ryder misses large chunks of this coming season, too, it could be Marshall that pushes towards that #1 ranking forward by seasons end. His upside is enormous.

Lachie Hunter – ADD FORWARD

Selecting Bulldogs players always feels like a risk. Luke Beveridge is long known for his ability to chop and change a player’s role weekly and potentially every quarter. In 2021 it was Lachie Hunter’sHunter’s turn to experience the positional roundabout. For the better part of the year, he played at centre bounces off the half-forward flank and then pushed up onto his preferred wing role. If the proposed MID/FWD status lands and the Bulldogs settle him back onto the wing, he looms as a locked 90+ forward.

Jack Billings – ADD FORWARD

Despite it not being Jack Billings’ best season, he started to show off his damaging highlights. Billings is an excellent field kick, and when playing across half-forward, the combination of solid footy IQ and skill makes him an outstanding player.

If allocated MID/FWD, he might not regain top 10 status among forwards, but he’ll undoubtedly skyrocket up draft format selection boards if he does.

Jason Horne-Francis – ADD FORWARD

It’sIt’s possibly an overreach to say “mistake” but I think the current single status allocation of Jason Horne-Francis as a midfielder is a missed opportunity. If you watched any of his SANFL games last season, he was playing a relatively even split between time as a midfielder and forward. In single-season leagues, allocating forward status to start the year would do nothing.

In keeper leagues, it might just be the difference-maker for coaches unsure about whether to draft him or Nick Daicos at the first pick of the new draftees. If it’s not allocated here, look for it at either the end of round three or six allocations. David Noble has already said the “JHF” would play a heavy MID/FWD split.

Harry Schoenberg – ADD FORWARD

For some, this might be a stretch, but over the totality of the season, Harry Schoenberg had a heavy forward to midfield split. It was only over the final few games that his midfield minutes increased significantly. Heading into the infamous third-year breakout, the addition of forward status could see him be a contender for the top 25 ranks in some coaches eyes. An average of 84 in the final five games of 2021 showed promising scoring signs.

Josh Daicos – ADD FORWARD

Two seasons ago, Josh Daicos was looming as one of the breakout forward candidates in UltimateFooty. However, due to multiple injuries and frequent positional changes, Josh has found himself off plenty of fantasy footy radars. In the games he did play last year, he put his mercurial surname into good use inside forward 50. Regaining forward status should bring him back into view for coaches.

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Keeper League Ranks | Tier One |Patreon Exclusive
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It’s here, MJ and Kane reveal who they believe are the marquee players to own in a keeper league. Here’s why they are the best of the best!

Sam Walsh

KANEWhat a player Sam Walsh has been just three years into his career. He’s yet to miss a game and already posted averages of 92, 97 and a brilliant 109. 
Amazingly Walsh is 13th for total points across the last three years which is mental when you consider he’s just 21 years of age. 
Clearly, Walsh’s advantage over Steele and Macrae is his age. He’s five and six years younger than them respectively. To get what is likely a 110 average across the next 10 years is just insane and something I couldn’t turn down. 
His score build is phenomenally well-rounded. He averaged 30 disposals, six marks, 4.5 tackles and 0.5 goals. There’s nothing glaring missing from his game so it’s just going to be a slight increase across the board that takes him to new levels. 
Don’t overthink it, just pick Walsh and enjoy the spoils for the next decade. 
MJIn the next two seasons will Sam Walsh score the most points? Possibly. But in a keeper league, your not just thinking about the next two seasons. Rather, you should be thinking about the decade ahead. 
During this edition of the top 50 keepers, you’ve heard Kane & I discuss that it’s often between seasons six to eight for when a player hits their scoring peak. The phenomenal thing about Walsh is over his first three seasons he’s already a top 15 player for most points. The upside for the next 10 seasons is potentially immeasurable. 
At 21 years of age, he has the most upside in terms of years available, through in his perfect durability over his career and it’s hard to overlook him here.
Sam Walsh is one of the best runners in the competition already. He wins the contested and uncontested footy, he applies defensive pressure through tackles and is supreme in his game day preparation. 
I believe Walsh at one is a clear no brainer, and a case could be made that he deserves to be in a tier all on his own. 

Jack Steele

KANEIt was a phenomenal season from Jack Steele that has me convinced that this guy will be the highest scoring player across the next three years and could even reset the record books. 
In 2021 Steele averaged 121 points across all 22 games but it’s the second half of his season that has me excited. In his final 11 games Steele averaged a monster 134 points thanks to 32 touches, 5.5 marks, 9.4 tackles and 0.5 goals a game. Let’s revisit the record books for a moment. 
In 2014 Tom Rockliff averaged 134.7 points across 18 games with Brisbane, the highest by any player in fantasy history. In 2018 Tom Mitchell scored the most points in a season by averaging 129.1 across all 22 games. 
If there’s a player in the league that could challenge these two records it’s Jack Steele. His ball winning exploded in the back half of the year, with six of his 10 best ball winning performances coming in the last 10 games of the season. Looking even deeper, his three best ball winning games came in the last five games of the year, which were 37, 36 and 36 disposals respectively. I can definitely see Steele taking his career-high for disposals into the 40s so if he can do that a couple times in a season he’s a genuine shot at both records. 
If you’re only worried about the short to medium term Jack Steele is your man and should be your first pick. The long term looks great too for a guy that is about to turn 26 and is the clear star midfielder in his side. 
MJI’ve long been a fan of Jack Steele. Even before his breakout 2020 season, Steele was a consistent 90’s averaging player. His score build was always heavily reliant on his tackle count, but if he became more of a ball winner he’d elevate himself to a top performing fantasy prospect.  
We saw this happen in 2020 when he returned 5 tons,  6 additional scores over 90 and just one score below 70. Remembering that ’80 was the new 100′ that’s an incredibly prolific scoring season factoring in the shorter quarters. He ended the season ranked fifth for total scoring and 10th by averages. His 2020 seasonal average of 90.9 is an adjusted average equivalent of 113.
The question entering into 2021 was whether or not Steele had fully established himself as a fantasy performer, or if the shortened games suited his playing style. Jack answered these questions emphatically with an average of 121. It consisted of 19 tons, 11 of these were over 120, and nine were over 130 including 162 V Blues. 
As we discussed on the podcast he got better as the year went on including posting 12 consecutive tons to end the year. Arguably if he can maintain his back half scoring of 2021 for the entirety of a season he could rival the fantasy elite scoring of Tom Mitchell and Tom Rockliff. 
Along with this strong scoring capacity is his durability. Steele has missed just five games in five seasons as a Saint, but hasn’t missed in past two. 
When the 2022 season commences, he’ll be 26 years of age. That still leaves plenty more prime scoring seasons from this St Kilda star. Just between us, I think he’ll be the top scoring player next year and probably the year after too.

Jack Macrae

KANEI’ve spoken at length on the podcast about the three year rolling window I use to evaluate players and Jack Macrae sits well clear on top of all three major metrics – durability, average and total points. 
The durability is perfect for Macrae. He’s played all 61 home and away games. Only 20 players have done that across the past three year stretch. 
His average of 115 across the past three years is No.1, and that’s on the back of three incredibly consistent seasons of 116, 113 and 116 seasonal averages. 
It’s no surprise then that Macrae is No.1 for total points. He’s scored 250 more points than Brodie Grundy (2nd), 1000 more points than Jack Crisp (16th) and 2000 more points than Jy Simpkin (50th). Those numbers are just insane. 
You can’t be more glowing of what Macrae has already achieved and I think we’ll see those 115 output continue for at least the next two seasons. With his neat kicking skills it’s easy to see him transition into a damaging half-forward in the later years of his career and continue to be a premium scorer going forward. 
MJOver the past eight seasons, Jackson Macrae has barely put a foot wrong. Since 2014 he’s had seven seasonal averages over 104 including 122 and multiple over 115.

In addition to his scoring consistency, Macrae has missed just two games in the past five years. he hasn’t missed a match since July 22nd 2018.  Jackson has just turned 27, and during the past 4 years, he’s averaged 115 or higher. I see nothing in the way he plays or Dogs use him to suggest his scoring dries up anytime soon.
For the 2021 AFL season, he ranked first in the league for disposals, 4th for score involvements, 5th inside ’50s, 3rd for Frees for, 10th for meters gained and 12th tackles.
This further highlights the scoring splits of Macrae and how near imp[ossible he is to stop. Despite having three scores of 145 or higher this year, the knock-on Macrae is a gradual dip in the conversion of his 100’s into big tons. But with the frequency he has hit and should keep hitting the triple figure mark, it’s a very small ‘knock’ at best.  

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Two | Patreon Exclusive
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They are among some of the best fantasy players in the game. You should have no shocks from this point on in MJ and Kane’s keeper league rankings. The time is now for you to jump into reading who makes tier #2.

Clayton Oliver

KANEElite is the name of the tier and it’s fitting for Clayton Oliver. 
Durability: he hasn’t missed a game in the past five seasons. 
Scoring: averaged 100+ in his past five seasons. Including an adjusted 115 in 2020 and 109 in 2018 and 2021. 
Total points: Only Jack Macrae and Brodie Grundy have scored more total points across the last three years. 
Role: as pure a centre bounce midfielder you can get and now he’s able to roll forward too. His time on ground is up to 88% now as a result, which is extremely impressive for a midfielder and five percent higher than any of his previous seasons. 
Age: 24 years of age so has at least five years of prime ahead. 
Summary: bulletproof player who only missed out on tier 1 because he doesn’t seem to have 120+ heights on his horizon. 
MJTrue story, I found it hard to not put Clayton Oliver in the top tier. He’s had five straight seasons of playing every game and averaged over 100 in all of these. Throw in the fact that he’s still just 24 years of age and we’ve got ourselves a potential hall of fame fantasy player. 
While he does lack the frequency of ceiling of others inside the top 10 ranks, he boasts a scoring basement that many would be jealous of.  Oliver has had just four sub 80 scores in his past 61 games. Not a bad effort!

Last year he ranked 11th for total points, while he was second in 2020 and 10th in 2019. So for all the ‘lack of ceiling’ talk, he still has been one of the best keeper prospects lately.
Has he reached the peak of his powers? Unlikely given his age. This means the already bulletproof Mr 105 could easily elevate himself further in the game again. 

Zach Merrett

KANEYet again Zach Merrett showed why he’s one of the best fantasy players in the game in 2021. The Essendon midfielder played all 22 games and averaged 110 points, with 17 of his scores 100+. 
Despite only being 26 years old Merrett has already produced seven 90+ seasons, six 100+ seasons and four 110+ seasons, that’s just ridiculous for a player with another five premium years ahead of him. 
Across the past three seasons he ranks fourth for total points and in the past six seasons he’s missed just the two games, both of which were due to suspension. 
Outside of a Caleb Serong tag in Round 9 that kept him to 67 points, Merrett was able to work through the attention. With Darcy Parish’s rapid rise the tag didn’t seem to come Merrett’s way at all in the second half of the year, which is massive for his fantasy numbers going forward. 
Merrett is right in the prime of his career and with the Bombers seemingly on the verge of becoming a regular finals side and building towards a premiership there’s a lot going for Merrett.  
MJOver the better part of six years, Zach Merrett has been among the best players to own in a keeper league. In this time his lowest seasonal average is 101, while he’s averaged over 110 in more than half of them. Just last season alone he scored 17 tons, 7 of them over 120 including 3 x 140+. 
When you add into the mix he’s missed only two games   (both suspension) since the start of 2016 season and it paints a fairly strong picture. 
Having just turned 26 years of age Merrett, owners will have plenty of great scoring seasons especially with teammate Darcy Parish now seemingly more impacted by the tag.
For the next four seasons I can see a world where he’s a top 10 scoring player each year. Additionally, as he ages into his 30’s I believe he’ll still be a strong scoring option and pick up DPP. His footy IQ and elite foot skills will make him a brilliant half back or half forward in the later career seasons.

Brodie Grundy

KANEAfter spending the past three years as the consensus number one pick in a keeper league, Brodie Grundy finds himself outside of tier 1. But it’s far from doom and gloom for the Collingwood ruckman. 
Based on his lofty heights of 2018-2020 where he played every game and produced seasonal averages of 120, 122 and 114 respectively, 2021 was underwhelming. Grundy averaged 106 points and missed two games due to a neck injury. Let that settle in for a second, an underwhelming season was 106 across 20 games, most other players could only dream of numbers like that. 
Prior to his injury in Round 11 against Geelong, Grundy was averaging 115 points and had scores of 152 and 142 to his name. He returned from injury in Round 15 and averaged 101 points in his remaining 10 games, with his scoring frankly all over the shop. Three of his scores were sub 80, while his two best were a respectable 129 and 139. 
Grundy will turn 28 during next season and there’s still plenty in the tank. You’re already getting a discount with his injury impacted scores and the Pies having an extremely poor season as a side. I think the 120 days are gone but there’s a couple 110-115 seasons left. We all know the pain of consistently looking for a reliable ruckman so many will still be happy to take Grundy at the top of the draft and alleviate that concern. 
MJTwelve months ago you could make a case that Brodie Grundy wasn’t just a top tier selection, but the obvious first selection. But has his slide down a tier had more to do with the rise of others? 
Arguably not. As good as the tier one guys are, I believe his scoring capacity still reigns in the same scoring realms we’ve seen previously. As discussed on the podcast, he was averaging 115 up til his freak injury mid-season. 
By mid-2022 Grundy will have turned 28, and while he might be among the elders of this tier he’s still got a lot to offer. I’m of the opinion his 120+ days might be gone, but the 110+ scores still look likely for the next few seasons. Don’t forget ruckmen often only hit their prime in the late ’20s. 
One of the hardest and most frustrating positions to secure in a keeper league is a long term ruckman. Ideally, you don’t want to spend multiple seasons and multiple draft picks on hoping to lock down this one positional line.
The advantage of Grundy is he secures you not only the likely top scoring ruck for the coming few seasons, but additionally, he allows your drafting and list strategy to be freed up.

Tom Mitchell

KANETwo and half years after his record breaking 2018 campaign that saw him record more fantasy points in a season than any other player (129 average across all 22 games), Tom Mitchell was back to his best in 2021.
In his 11 games post bye Mitchell averaged 126 points, scored a ton in every game and went at a ridiculous 35 disposals, five marks, six tackles and also kicked seven goals in that time. 
Clearly the concern with Mitchell is his age. At 29 years of age you need to be thinking about how to win premiership in 2022 and 2023. That means taking guys that are ready made scorers right now. 
The positive with Mitchell if you’re not in contention by the trade deadline is that you can sell him to a contender and try and reset your list with some younger players. If you want instant success taking Mitchell early in the first round makes a lot of sense. 
MJLet’s be honest, if you have a mid range first round draft pick, you’re eyeing off Tom Mitchell and with good reason too. Last year he ranked fifth for total points across the 2021 season and scored 19 tons.
The additionally encouraging element is how ‘Titch’ ended the season as it started to emulate his career best seasons. Tom had a post-bye stretch of 11 games, with an average of 126 and the lowest score of 105. 
He starts the season at 28, meaning that coaches who draft him will be needed to capitalise on his peak scoring and be in keeper league premiership contention immediately. If not, then he’ll provide a high value trade asset if your side is falling beyond the finals.
I can see two, maybe three more peak scoring seasons of Tom before the scoring decline hits. 

Touk Miller

KANEI don’t know what odds you would have got for Touk Miller to be the highest averaging player in fantasy in 2021 but you probably could have retired off the back of it. 
Not only did Miller average 122 points, but from Round 4-21 he averaged 129 and from Round 11-21 he went at 133. Those numbers stack up with some of the best players to ever grace a fantasy format. 
The question remains though, what can we expect going forward. For mine everything fell Miller’s way this year. Matt Rowell was severely limited due to injury, while Lachie Weller and Hugh Greenwood also missed time. With players returning from injury and more high-quality draftees emerging I think that eats away at Miller a bit. 
However, you can’t deny that Miller is one of the hardest working players in the AFL, both in the contest and on the outside, which makes him near impossible to stop. 
I see a regression but I still have him in the 105-115 range, which at 25 years of age is a fantastic return. 
MJWhenever a player has a season like his 2021, keeper coaches have to ask themselves this question.
Is this his new reality or a unicorn season? If you forecast correctly you pay for him at his correct point of value in a draft. If you get it wrong you risk either missing one of the next uber players or overpaying on someone.
His 2021 season consisted of  17 scores of 100 or more including a massive 11 of them over 130. On his way to averaging 122 he had just one score beneath 80 all year.   
So what was the real cause of his growth? It came off the back of his elite endurance and high work rate. As a result, his scoring boost came in uncontested possessions and tackles. 
You can’t deny his season, but backing up 120 seasons, let alone 115 is rare. Thankfully at 25 times is on his side. 

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Three | Patreon Exclusive
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Lachie Whitfield

KANELachie Whitfield’s upside is as good as it gets. Having a defender who can average 120 is unheard of, but that’s the ceiling Whitfield possesses. 
In 2019 he averaged 114 points, but when you remove his two injury impacted scores, that average rises to 122. 
In 2020 he averaged 107 adjusted points, but when you remove his concussion impacted game, that average jumps to 113. 
In 2021 he averaged 95 points, but when you remove his concussion impacted game that average goes to 100. 
I think you catch my drift now. When Whitfield is on the field and healthy, he’s one of the best scorers in the game, let alone as a back or forward. It’s worth noting too that in draft you have a time on ground injury threshold that allows you to avoid a lot of these types of scores and field your emergency. 
Clearly, the other factor you have to acknowledge is that for whatever reason Whitfield does miss games. This year it was a nasty liver injury in the preseason that saw him miss the opening six games of the season. 
There also is some concern about what role he has in the Giants team. Whitfield has been deployed as deep as the Giants kick in taker who attacks from D50 or as high as a half-forward who pushes into the midfield and roams the ground. I don’t see these different roles yielding massively different outputs but it’s not as clear cut as other players like Jake Lloyd. 
I’m always drawn to the upside and Whitfield is the type of guy that any season could be the most valuable player in the game and if you’re chasing premierships that’s exactly what you want. 
MJ12 months ago I would have argued like Taranto Lachie Whitfield is a top tier guy. In fact, a case could’ve been made that he’s the player you should pick with the first pick in a new keeper league.
However, in the eyes of some, the concerns are starting to build. For me, they aren’t significant enough to scare me from picking him. However, it’s probably enough to fade him a tier or two.
When fit he’s a jet, but the games missed and in game injuries are slowly building. From a ‘glass half full’ perspective, none of these injuries really are related and are more on the ‘unlucky’ scale than anything else. 
Over the past three season we’ve seen him as one of the most valuable commodities in the draft as both a defender and forward. In 2019 he averaged 113 from 16 games, which featured 13 tons and a likely career high 190. 11 of his 15 games in 2020 where a BCV adjusted 100+ score, while Kane has already touched on his 2021 season.   
Whitfield is a kick first player, and even when tagged still uses his elite endurance to get into damaging spaces.
With the departures of Callum Mills and Rory Laird from the fantasy backline it opens up the possibility of Lachie being the top defender for 2022. I for one believe he will be. 
There is a risk that he becomes a midfielder only in the future, but given his positional versatility he should have multiple seasons where he’s a top tier defender or forward should that eventuate. 

Christian Petracca

KANEIt’s been an incredible past two seasons for Christian Petracca. He’s played all 39 home and away games and averaged 110 points, which puts him top 10 for total points across that time. 
The incredible part of Petracca’s game at the moment is his consistency. Only once this year did he dip below 80 and 14 times he delivered a ton. One of the main reasons for his consistency to me is his score build. In 2021 he averaged 29 disposals, 14 contested possessions, five marks, four tackles and a goal a game. There’s literally no category he’s deficit in. Additionally, he doesn’t get the tag because there’s no one who can match his power in the contest, movement around the ground and forward craft inside 50. 
The thing I think a lot of people are missing is his scoring power. In the last 12 games of the season, which stretches from Round 15 post bye all the way to the Grand Final, he averaged 117 points. In that span he reeled off 10 tons, five of which were 125+. This indicates to me there’s room for Petracca to improve on that career best average of 111 in the upcoming seasons. 
Throw in the likelihood that he’ll finish his career as a mid-forward and there’s not a lot not to like about Trac!
MJChristian Petracca is one of my favourites to own in a keeper league. The breakout took longer than keeper coaches wanted, but now that it’s happened it’s a thing of beauty.
With the adjusted game time and scores of 2020, it’s always challenging to put too much weight into the breakout. While he delivered an adjusted 108 keeper coaches will feel validated in his scoring potential after his 2021 season. 
In 2021 he averaged 110.8, scored 14 tons including 7 over 120. Oddly, he had a seven games stretch midseason where he had only 2 tons. But the front and back end of the season was fire!  CP5 averaged 115 over the first 6 and again 115 in the last 10. So arguably, he’s still got some more upside in him.
Equally as valuable as his scoring ability is his durability. Petracca has missed only one game in five years. I believe he’s the best player in the game right now, and opposition coaches can attest that night now he’s near impossible to stop. 
As we discussed in the podcast, don’t be shocked to see him regaining MID/FWD DPP in various parts of his career not just in his final few seasons. 

Callum Mills

KANEWe finally saw the role change we’d all been waiting for in 2021 from Callum Mills and he didn’t disappoint. 
Mills averaged 110 from his 18 games, but it jumps to 112 points if you remove Round 23 where he was subbed out with Achilles soreness in the third term. 
Consistency was the key to Mills’ fantasy game. In all 17 of his healthy games he scored 85 or more points and in 13 games he scored triple figures, including a 152 and 142. And again it’s no surprise that Mills has an extremely well-rounded scoring profile (28 disposals, 10 contested possessions, six marks and five tackles.)
The key for Mills going forward is can he start producing more ceiling games. Outside of his aforementioned 152 and 142, his only other 120+ scores were 133 and 121. We can’t expect a better floor but if he can start converting his 110s into 120-130s then a 115 average is within reach. 
Even if Mills is unable to up those ceiling games at 24 years of age he shapes as a top 10 midfielder for the next 5 years and there’s always the possibility for him to regain back status at the end of his career. 
MJThe role and scoring breakout finally happened! Keeper league owners for multiple seasons have been awaiting what we saw in 2021.
Callum Mills is an unassuming fantasy scorer. Those who watch the game (not the fantasty scoring during it) can be fooled into thinking he’s not scoring well. However, as Matt Boyd did for the better part of a decade, Mills just finds a way to get involved in everything and without copping much attention.   His scoring breakdown is well rounded. Consisting of 39% kicks, 24% handballs, 16% marks and 19% tackles.  To average 110 and to only deliver 3 games over 130 highlights his low scoring deviation and consistency. 
Mills will enter the 2022 season as a midfielder and farewell his defensive eligibility. The only thing we haven’t seen Callum encounter or overcome is how he handles a tag. But at 187cm and spending the majority of his AFL career as a defender, I think he’s had a solid apprenticeship to handle whatever comes his way. 
He may never become a player that delivers you a 120+ season, but he should be a highly valuable keeper commodity for the next 8+ seasons. 

Tim Taranto

KANETim Taranto bounced back from an injury-interrupted 2020 in a major way averaging 108 points. While his average wasn’t quite the same as his career best of 113 in 2019, for the majority of the season he was on pace for a career-best year.
From Round 1 to 18 he averaged 114 points, which included 13 tons and a lowest score of 86. However, in Round 19 there was a clear role change from centre bounce midfielder to forward. In the four games he played as a predominant forward he averaged 77 points and had a highest score of 98. 
This is clearly a massive concern for a player you’re drafting in the first two rounds of a keeper and while there’s some risk this role shift could continue I don’t think it’s that likely. 
I tend to think Taranto might have been carrying an injury and thus moved out of the midfield to protect him. Across his first 91 AFL games only once did he fail to lay a tackle and that was a 61% time on ground performance in his first season. In Round 19 and 20 this year he failed to lay a tackle and those were the two games he spent bulk time forward. 
To have a 23-year-old that has already produced averages of 113, 108, 94 and 91 inside his first five seasons at AFL level is insane. At worst you’re getting a top 30 midfielder for the next five years at best you could be getting a top five midfielder for the next 10 with the possibility of picking up dpp along the way. 
MJTim Taranto is the perfect reminder of how a player can move up and down the tiers within a season for keeper leagues. If this were being created mid-season you’d be hard pressed to not put him into one of the top 2 tiers.  So why the slide to tier three? It’s relatively simple. Role! I never in a million years thought that Leon Cameron would use ‘TT’ in a primary role other than as an inside midfielder.
However, in the final 5 weeks is when the role shifting started and he started playing more as a half-forward.   
During the first 17 games of the season, he averaged 113, posted 13 tons and had just one score under 90. In the final five games, he averaged 88. But that’s inflated as his big sole ton (132), was where he played back as a midfielder when Josh Kelly was a late out.  
His scoring ceiling is certainly limited if he plays significant midfield minutes. The potential upside is that if that role holds long enough he’d be a candidate to gain MID/FWD DPP. 
I don’t see any risk of selecting ‘TT’ in this tier, and at this point of a keeper draft, you cannot afford the risk. At best the 23 year old delivers on his proven history as a 110+ midfielder. Worst case scenario is he splits his time between midfield and forward but not enough to gain DPP. Therefore he probably becomes a 95 mid.
Taranto will give his owner another 7-8 seasons of top tier scoring potential.  I for one, see him delivering a ton in every single season during that stretch of time. 

Josh Dunkley

KANEI have to preface this article by saying I may be Josh Dunkley’s biggest fantasy believer. If you’ve listened to me talk about him on any podcast you’d know how highly I regard him and I think it’s warranted.  
So far his fantasy journey has had everything. In his first season he averaged 80 points and was part of the Bulldogs historic premiership. Year two a shoulder injury restricted him to just six games. 
Year three and four is where the fantasy potential started to become obvious to everyone. In 2018 he averaged 96 points, but in his 10 games post bye he went at 109. In 2019 he averaged a career-high 111 points but his season average again doesn’t tell the full story. In the first six games of the season he played forward for an average of 78 points. In Round 7 and for the remaining 16 games of the season he became a pure centre bounce midfielder and exploded, averaging 124 across the stretch. Included in that run were scores of 189, 158, 150 and 145, to showcase his elite ceiling. 
Unfortunately for Dunkley, year five and six have mirrored each other. An injury to his ankle in 2020 limited him to 11 home and away games, while a shoulder injury in 2021 kept him to 11 home and away games also. Despite missing large chunks of both seasons he’s still averaged 90+, which far from kills you. 
A lot of coaches will be scared off by his recent run of injury and inconsistent scoring (I think the two are closely linked) and overlook him inside the first two rounds but I think the upside is so high that he could be the best scorer in fantasy across the next five seasons. 
MJSome might be too turned away to grab Josh Dunkley this high in a keeper league, but his upside has his scoring potential up there with the best.
Unlike others on the list, his scoring forecast isn’t based on an unproven potential. Rather on what he has done. Over the ​​final sixteen matches of his 2019 season, he scored 14 tons, 9 of them were above 120, and 4 over 140 and an average of 123 after the move.
This is a perfect foreshadowing of what he delivered at the stuff of 2021. Before succumbing to a shoulder injury that required a reconstruction he was averaging 115 in the first six weeks of the year. In all of these games, he scored a ton, with a seasonal high including a 151.
Coming back from such a serious injury in season is an incredible effort. Throw in the fact he had to quarantine for 2 weeks after visiting a covid exposure site and it was a slower return to scoring than what he and his owners would’ve liked. Yet, over the last three finals, his tackle count started to return along with his contested possessions. In these games, he scored 95, 101 & 83.
Josh is still just 24, so time is on his side for his owners to continue to reap the benefits of his scoring. Personally, I believe he’ll retain MID/FWD status and be the top scoring forward of 2022. 

Rory Laird

KANEWhat a fantasy player Rory Laird is. Recruited off the rookie list he’s already produced seven premium seasons and none better than 2021. 
Playing as a centre bounce midfielder Laird averaged a career-high 112 points and reeled off 18 tons. Only once did he score sub 90 and that was a 75. 
The standout number for Laird though is clearly how he finished the season. From Round 12 to Round 23 he hit triple figures in every game and averaged 120 points. 
We know Laird is an incredible ball-winner (he averaged 32 disposals this year) but it was his six tackles a game that impressed me as his previous best was four and shows how well he adapted to the role change. 
In addition to his scoring prowess, Laird boasts near-perfect durability and always has the possibility of regaining back status at some point in his career. 
The one concern I see floated is the return of Matt Crouch and what impact that could have. I’m not overly fussed as I don’t see Crouch’s return reducing Laird’s CBA’s, particularly with Sloane likely to be phased out of the midfield as he enters the twilight of his career. 
At 28 years old you still have 3 years at least of strong scoring from a player who has shown to be a premium as a midfielder or defender. Throw in that he’s available every week, you can’t go wrong with Laird. 
MJRory Laird has been one of the best defensive premiums for years.  Between 2016 – 2020 he’s averaged  97, 100, 108, 97 and an adjusted 99 BCV. 
Midway through 2020, he had a role change as a pure midfielder. From then on in he averaged an adjusted 112, a foreshadowing of what was to come this season.
In 2021 this scoring trend continued. He averaged 111, scored 18 tons including 6 over 120. Throw in the fact he dipped his scoring beneath 90 just once and it was a near perfect season. 
Kane’s already highlighted the strong end to the season which would provide coaches with some confidence that perhaps he’s only getting better in the role. 
Over these podcast episodes, you’ve heard us discuss the value of a player having multiple scoring columns. Why does this matter? Simply, it enables a player to have a diversity of scoring options should one be limited either by oppositions game style or other variables.
Last year his scoring split was made up of 37% Kicks, 31% Handballs, 9% marks and 20% tackles. Laird has a near perfect fantasy game. He’s a ball winner, knows how to defend, boasts strong endurance and has the footy IQ to get into space for both offensive and defensive setups.
Not having Matt Crouch play did aid his scoring and midfield development. But Laird is so clever if anything I can only see a 5 ppg regression. Equally as likely is he hits the rare terrority of premium midfielders and backs up his 110 seasonal average. 

Jake Lloyd

KANEIt says a lot about Jake Lloyd that people are disappointed with a 98-point average but that’s the sense I’ve got from the community. 
I think most of that disappointment is rooted in just how well his previous two seasons were. In 2019 he averaged 107 and in 2020 he averaged 114*, which are mind boggling numbers for a defender and place him firmly among the top five most valuable players during that stretch. 
But you’re not here for the past and we want to know how he’ll go in the future. I have Lloyd as 90-100 defender for the next three years and wouldn’t be surprised with his elite durability (missed just one game in the past four seasons), fitness and foot skills that he can’t stretch that scoring for even five years. 
Doesn’t have the upside of some others in this tier but he’s just so safe and gives you a player to build your backline for the medium term at least. 
MJ12 months ago, Jake Lloyd was a genuine first round selection in a keeper league. Lloyd had developed his scoring to such great heights, that he was now seen by many as the undeniable clear best defender. 
While Rory Laird and Callum Mills amongst others went past his scoring last season, Jake still has something that these two no longer possess. Defensive Status!
At 28 years of age, Lloyd still delivered a solid 2021 season. It featured twelve tons and an additional five scores of 90-99. Where his scoring dried up was in his ceiling, last year he failed to deliver anything over 120. 
Regardless of this, he is still one of the most reliable and durable defensive options available. During the past six seasons, he’s missed just two matches.
The departure of Jordan Dawson doesn’t hurt his scoring upside, but it probably doesn’t drastically mean he’ll return to the 110+ seasons. However, over the next 3 seasons, I still see Lloyd as a 95-15 defender and in a keeper league given he’ll hold his status that’s a highly valuable asset.  

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Four | Patreon Exclusive
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Read Time:13 Minute, 11 Second

We start to enter into the top 20 players of the keeper rankings. Here’s MJ and Kane’s take on the players in tier four.

Marcus Bontempelli

KANEWe’ve classified tier four as dependable and Marcus Bontempelli demonstrates that in every part of his fantasy  game. 
Firstly, he’s always available. In the past six seasons he’s played every game in five of them and the one season he didn’t in 2018, he missed just three games.
His scoring is ultra-consistent. His lowest score for the season was 75 and he produced tons in 16 games, including eight 120+. 
There’s also some role security now. The Bulldogs have strengthened their key position stocks with Aaron Naughton, Tim English, Josh Bruce, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Josh Schache and soon to be father-son Sam Darcy. These additions should allow Bont to play bulk midfield minutes and rest forward, which is the perfect mix. 
This makes Bont near-bulletproof as a fantasy option. He’ll likely be a 105-110 midfielder for the next three to five years and will likely finish his career with forward status. A genuine superstar of the AFL and fantasy landscape. 
MJ
During the 2020 season in AFLFantasy, Marcus Bontempelli posted 3 tons, 2 of these were over 120 in a season high 145 against the Crows. Additionally, he posted eight more scores over 80. In fact, across the whole season, he had just two scores below 80 all year. Don’t forget that 80 was the 100 of 2020.  He finished the season on fire as one of the most prolific scorers. He averaged 99 (adjusted average 124) from round 10 to the season’s end.
I highlight his previous year as it reminds us that Bont didn’t just have a strong premium season in 2021. He’s now constantly doing it. This year he averaged 107, scored sixteen tons with half of these triple figure scores over 120. That’s a more than adequate return, given some of the fantasy community believe he boasts no scoring ceiling. 
At 26 years of age at the start of next season, you could build a case for Bont being deemed one of the all time great Bulldog players ever. 
In 4-5 years, he’ll likely regain MID/FWD status as he wraps up his career. But until then, he’ll be a pure midfielder and should dominate games consistently. 

Josh Kelly

KANEWe all know the scoring power of Josh Kelly in the past five seasons he’s averaged between 103 and 115 points. 
Clearly the knock on Kelly is his availability but there’s signs to suggest that might be turning around. The troubling years that saw fantasy coaches lose faith in his body were 2018 and 2019. Across those two years he could only muster 29 games but in the previous two seasons he’s played 35 of a possible 39 and two of them he missed were due to a Shane Mumford knee to the head.
Typically Josh Kelly’s role in the Giants side has remained consistent, as CBA midfielder or plays stints on the wing. However, to start the 2021 we saw him deployed as a half-forward and this severely impacted his scoring. In the first six games Kelly averaged 86 points in this role with a high of 91. Thankfully for coaches he was moved back into his CBA heavy role and averaged 111 points in his final 15 games of the season. 
At 26 years of age Kelly has plenty of quality seasons ahead of him. While his body still warrants some concern it’s not as much as two years ago. The Giants still don’t seem satisfied with their midfield mix which could see some inconsistent scoring for Kelly but overall he just gets the job done year in year out and has the ceiling of a top 5 player in the game. 
MJOne of the most bizarre moves of the season came when for the opening six rounds of the season GWS played Josh Kelly as a high half forward. 
While his scoring wasn’t poor, it lacked his historical consistent scoring. However, once the class of Lachie Whitfield returned the Giants from round seven onwards Kelly returned back into his customary role
From this point on he averaged 111, it featured 12 tons in this stretch of games.  This scoring mirrors the trend of his recent history. Since 2017 he;s averaged 112, 108, 115, 105 BCV) and this years 103.  26 at start of season
Scoring ability has never been a concern, injuries have. But is that now a thing of the past? He missed just the one game this season, and that was only due to the condensed AFL fixture and a 5 day turn around. The giants confirmed that had it been another 24 hours more and he would’ve played. 
Josh Kelly does have an element of risk, both in an extended injury history and a growing trend that is seeing Leon Cameron happy to move almost any player magnet position around. 
Amidst the risk, coaches can offset part of that with future draft picks and load up further on the midfield. Finally, there aren’t that many player who have multiple seasons of proven years averaging 110+, Josh Kelly has that. And at 26, he’s still got a few more in him yet. 

Lachie Neale

KANELachie Neale is the exact type of guy you want in a keeper league. Outside of 2021 which saw him suffer multiple in-game injuries and miss seven games, Neale had missed just two games in his previous seven home and away seasons. That’s the type of durability you can only dream of from your elite players and Neale’s scoring certainly is elite. 
In his three seasons at Brisbane he has played 54 home and away games and in that time has scored 32 tons. It’s particularly impressive when you note that he has demonstrated a ceiling of 140+ scores. 
While Neale is certainly in the back half of his career and will turn 29 in the 2022 season there doesn’t seem to be a dramatic fall coming. He’s still one of the most polished players in traffic and covers the ground beautifully. I don’t see why he can’t keep scoring into his mid 30s like Travis Boak, such is his professionalism and dedication to his craft. 
MJLachie Neale is certainly on the older scale of a keeper league, but he still has so much to offer his owner.
At 28, he’s not exactly falling off the cliff either. So much of this past season’s performance can be put down to multiple injury concerns both in season and during the preseason.In his first season as a Lion he averaged 104, while much has been made of his Brownlow season where he averaged an adjusted 122, or in reality a 98. 
Last year everything went wrong in his body and yet he still found a way to play 15 games and average a 95. What should be encouraging in his form towards the back end of the season as he started to regain full health and fitness. 
He scored a 120 & 110 in the final two home and away games of the year. While in finals he posted a 140 and a 99. 
He’s not on the young side of his career, but in reality what are you paying for? Neale is Mr 105 for the next few seasons. Unlike 12 months ago, you’re paying for what he is over the totality of his career, and not having to form out a first round pick after the 122.  

Darcy Parish

KANEWhat a season 2021 was for Darcy Parish. A string of injuries to the Bombers midfield unit opened up a regular spot for him and he exploded. 
From Round 6 to 16 he averaged 127 across those 10 games and reeled off scores of 160, 150, 144, 143 and 131. That’s a consistency of ceiling that only few players in the league can match. 
The downside came after that stretch as opponents began to send ‘taggers’ his way. I hesitate to say taggers as it was Harry Schoenberg, Lachie Ash and Jay Rantall who kept him to scores of 68, 69 and 61 respectively. Clearly taggers were able to reduce Parish’s output but it was also the first time he’s ever reached such attention so you’d think he’d be better equipped to deal with it going forward.
I think the piece of information that makes Parish a difficult player to evaluate is that we haven’t seen him perform with a full strength Essendon midfield (Dylan Shiel, Andy McGrath and Jye Caldwell all missed large chunks of the year). From the eye-test though I loved what Parish did and see him scoring triple figures for the next five years. For me it’s on the lower end of the 100 as opposed to nearing 110+ but the potential is there and I’m sure one coach in a draft will be keen to chase that upside and I can understand why. 
MJOver the opening five weeks of the season, he averaged 86, and his sole ton of the year to date was 117. However, from Anzac Day against the Magpies that he was fully released to play as a midfielder. So from round six onwards, here’s the stat line for Parish.
From the final 17 games of the season, he scored 11 tons, 7 of them over 120 and 2 over the monster mark of 150. He averaged 111.7 and put together a hot streak of 7 consecutive hundreds between round 6-12.
Like anything, you’ve always got to look at the narrative behind the numbers. Firstly, what caused the role change? Simple! A long-term injury to Dylan Shiel was after an almost season-ending injury to Jye Caldwell. So if injury created the opportunity, what happened upon their return?Caldwell didn’t play again in the home and away season. But Shiel did in round 19. So in the 15 games, Parish played without Dylan, he averaged 117.7. However, when Shiel did play (7 games), he averaged 79.1. That’s a differential of 38.6. More specifically, over the final five games, when both played, Dylan averaged a mere 84.4.To be clear, I don’t see a world with him moving out of the midfield role. Instead, my concern is scoring like that, which impacts his scoring ceiling

Andrew Brayshaw

KANEAfter breaking out in his third season in 2020 Andrew Brayshaw continued his rise in 2021 elevating his fantasy output to an elite level. 
Brayshaw averaged 104 points a game on the back of 28 disposals, five marks and five tackles. MJ and I have spoken at nauseam over the years about score builds and Brayshaw is as well-rounded as you can get for a midfielder. The advantage of scoring in different ways is it increases your floor. 
Brayshaw only dipped below 80 on three occasions in 2021 and they were games when he was tagged (63 vs Carlton/Ed Curnow, 54 vs Hawthorn/James Worpel and 64 vs Brisbane/Jarrod Berry). 
On the other of the spectrum his ceiling reached new heights. Brayshaw produced five scores 120+ including a monster 156 against Richmond and a 137 against Essendon. 
To secure a 22 year old who has already demonstrated an elite scoring season is about as good as it gets in a keeper league and that’s before you factor in his character and leadership skills that will see him stay in this midfield role for the next 10 years.
MJAndrew Brayshaw has fully emerged as a genuine long term midfield premium.
After flying out of the gate with back to back tons, Andrew quickly experienced a tag for the first time in his AFL career. He delivered a 63 & 54 against the Blues and then the Hawks. It wouldn’t be the only time he received tight attention, but when he was given freedom he delivered big time.
Over the totality of 2021 he scored 13 tons, including a career high 156. He also posted an additional three scores between 90-99. Over the final 12 games of the year he dropped his scoring below 92 in just one game. 
So does he have any scoring growth in him? Absolutely, both with the growth of his already evidenced ceiling, but also if he can lift those tagged score up 10-15 points.

If he can do this, as he begins his fifth AFL season he looms as one of the more safe premiums to elevate himself to averaging 110+. 

Jarryd Lyons

KANEIt won’t be as long a ride as other players in the 50 but it could be extremely rewarding. Jarryd Lyons has been one of the best midfielders in fantasy across the past two and half seasons since he secured a midfield spot at Brisbane. 
2021 was an insane season from Lyons. Not only did he average an absurd 117 points but he played every game and delivered 124 points in his 10 games post bye. It’s no surprise that Lyons’ floor is high and so is his ceiling. His lowest score of the year was 84 and only six times did he score below 100. His highest score for the year was 161 and on eight occasions he scored more than 130 points. That’s just outrageous. 
The knock with Lyons is his age. Halfway through next year he’ll turn the dreaded 30 but like Neale he’s showing no signs of falling off a cliff. While I don’t expect him to replicate his 2021 numbers I can see an average of 110 points across the next two seasons. Coupled this with the fact that he’s a solid forward, we could get him as a forward for the final years of his career with some midfield stints. 
If you grab Lyons you need to be playing for the now so let your draft strategy reflect that and take on those ready made players even if they only have a few years left. 
MJA great strategy in keeper leagues is to target younger talent. However, sometimes coaches can go ‘too far’ and as a result be uncompetitive for multiple seasons.  Kane and I have said this a few times throughout the podcasts, but a premiership in year one or two is still a premiership.
Over the past few seasons Jarryd Lyons has proven to be among one of the most consistent midfield premiums in the game. And by drafting him in your keeper, your mindset does need to be closer towards the premiership window for ‘now’ rather than in ‘2-3 seasons.’
I don’t buy into the narrative that Lyons falls off the cliff when Lachie Neale returns to form. Last year’s scoring of both players is a prime example of this. 
Lyons scoring splits from last year aree a thing of beauty. Just over 42% of his points came via kicks, 22% from tackles, 20% from handballs and 12% from tackles. With splits like this, he’s very difficult to slow his scoring rate and with players like Dayne Zorko and Lachie Neale still scoring well, he’ll continue to face zero tagging pressure from opposition midfielders. 

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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Five | Patreon Exclusive
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Read Time:18 Minute, 9 Second

Kane and MJ continue on their ranking of the keeper leagues. This tier has nearly 1/5 of the entire list in this tier. Check out who we have and why

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Taylor Adams

KANEOh, Taylor Adams, where do we start? Let’s go with the positives first, such is my nature. 
Simply put, the guy scores when he plays a full game. In the final nine games of 2021 he averaged 108 points and delivered seven tons. In 2017 he played every game and averaged 115 points and in 2020 he played all 17 games in the shortened format and delivered an adjusted average of 114. Those are uber numbers for any fantasy player.
The negative is his availability. Outside of 2017 and 2020 where he didn’t miss a game, Adams other games tallies since 2016 are 14, 19, 10 and 14 respectively. That’s way too much missed time and exactly why he isn’t in the higher tiers. You just can’t guarantee he’ll be as available for 85% of the season. 
Adams scoring power will always warrant a high pick and can certainly yield high returns but you’d want to support him with some durable premiums and a deep bench to not leave yourself exposed in the midfield. 
MJHe has the scoring power of a top two or three tier player, but he’s got the career injury concerns that mean picking Taylor Adams too high in a new keeper could be catastrophic. 
Since debuting TayTay has just two seasons where he’s played every match possible. Of the other 8 seasons, he’s missed anywhere from 3 to 12 games per year. 
The thing that you have to love about Adams is his relentless ability to score well. Since 2015 his seasonal averages hasn’t dropped below 90. 
Last year he averaged 100, but his final 10 games were fire. He scored 8 tons, with four of them over 115. At 28 years old he’s still worth the draft capital in this tier. At best he’ll give you 3-4 years of a certain 100 average. 
At worst, well it’s injury affected, but my encouragement if picking him or any player with a poor injury history is to support this draft pick with another pick. Select an extra midfielder, create security for yourself as history says you’ll need the cover multiple times. 
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Ollie Wines

KANEWhat a season 2021 was for Ollie Wines. A Brownlow Medal and a career-best fantasy year has him in the top 50 keeper prospects for the first time since 2016 for mine. 
After seven solid years of averaging between 90-100, Wines exploded to average 112 points in 2021 while playing every home and away game for the first time since 2018.
It’s no surprise with an 112 average that we saw both Wines’ floor and ceiling rise this year. His lowest score was 70 points but in 20 games he scored more than 90 points and 15 of those were triple figures. 
His ceiling was on full display in the second half of the season. Pre-bye he averaged 106 points but post-bye he averaged 118 which featured his three highest scores of the year – 154, 151 and 140. 
I’d never seen Wines display the running power he demonstrated in 2021 so I think we have to declare that he’s a different player to those previous years. However, I can’t see him recreating his numbers of this year going forward. For me he’s a 100-107 option averager and an absolute rock in your midfield for another three to four years.  
MJFor years Ollie Wines has been a good, but not great keeper option. From 2014-2020 he’d consistently averaged between 91-100 and provided a level of reliability for his owners.
In 2021 the reigning Brownlow Medalist found another gear. He averaged career high possession numbers (32), up to five per game from his previous best year. In addition to this, his uncontested and mark count were personal bests. In short. Ollie developed an outside part to his game, where he no longer become an ‘inside bull’ only, but a rounded midfielder. 
It’s no surprise he averaged 112, score 15 tons and dropped his scoring beneath 85 just once. 
At 26, we’ve still got 5-6 years of peak Wines performances. But will they be close to his Brownlow year or the previous 5 seasons? For me, I believe it’s somewhere between the two. 
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Caleb Daniel

KANECaleb Daniel and Jayden Short I’m going to couple together because from a fantasy perspective they deliver basically the exact same thing. 
25 years of age: comfortably five years of premium output ahead Long term defenders: no concern about losing back statusPremium scorers: they’ve already demonstrated 85+ scoring and are in their prime now High floor, low ceiling: both only hit 120+ once in 2021 but also they rarely scored under 80 (Short did it four times, Daniel six)
I’m not going to waste words here. With Daniel and Short you’re getting a year-in year-out top 10 defender for the next five years. 
MJDid you watch the Grand Final? If you did, I probably don’t need to create much more of a compelling case for you to own Caleb Daniel than that game. 
The bulldogs love to get the ball into his hands to create both rebounds off defensive 50, but also damaging plays heading into their own attacking half. 
Since making the transition to the backline he’s averaged 93, 88 (BCV), and last season an 86. 
Daniel does possess a higher range of scoring deviation than I’d like, but like with anyone who can throw up a poor sub 50 score, you need to be able to counter it with some 120+ performances to balance that out. Thankfully for Daniel, he can do that.
At 25, he’s still got another 6-7 seasons of playing that core distributor role for the Doggies and for as long as he plays as a defender, he’ll be one of the safest 85+ averaging backs you’ll get in a keeper league. 
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Jayden Short

KANECaleb Daniel and Jayden Short I’m going to couple together because from a fantasy perspective they deliver basically the exact same thing. 
25 years of age: comfortably five years of premium output ahead Long term defenders: no concern about losing back statusPremium scorers: they’ve already demonstrated 85+ scoring and are in their prime now High floor, low ceiling: both only hit 120+ once in 2021 but also they rarely scored under 80 (Short did it four times, Daniel six)
I’m not going to waste words here. With Daniel and Short you’re getting a year-in year-out top 10 defender for the next five years. 
MJAs Kane has highlighted, the parallels between Caleb Daniel and Jayden Short are scarily similar. 
Jayden is rated elite in the league for meters gained, disposals and rebound 50’s. Further to these elite ratings, his kick to handball ratio is 3:1. Which is perfect for us keeper coaches. 

Since the start of 2020 Short hasn’t missed a game. That year he averaged 90.87 in a BCV equivalent.  To further prove it wasn’t a scoring anomaly 
In 2021 he averaged 93. That consisted of nine tons, and in just two occasions did his scoring dip sub 70.
At 26 years of age at the start of next season, not only is in his prime of scoring he’s also got long term defensive positional stability. GUN! 
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Max Gawn

KANEMax Gawn’s keeper stock obviously isn’t what it was three to four seasons ago but he’s still one of the best rucks in the game and a player that goes a long way to winning now. 
Despite Gawn hitting 30 years of age prior to the 2022 season commencing there’s no signs of deterioration in his game. Gawn delivered a 109 average in 2021 across all 22 home and away games. Gawn’s floor was remarkable again in 2021 with only three scores sub 90 (72, 73 and 84) to go with 15 tons (four of which were 130+). 
There’s some concern in the community that Luke Jackson’s continual growth will severely hamper Gawn’s scoring but I don’t see the major dip. We have to remember that 2022 is only season three for Jackson so he’s still a number of years away from taking the burden of a No. 1 ruck role. A positive for Gawn owners may arrive in 2024 in the form of forward status as Jackson continues to see more centre bounce action. 
It’s probably wishful thinking to expect more than three premium seasons out of Gawn but even if it’s just two I think you can push hard in that time with him to secure a premiership. 
MJAre his best years really behind him? It’s a narrative in the community, but I think it’s false.  Check out these seasonal averages  
2018: Avg 1112019: Avg 1112020: Avg 123.6 BCV2021: 108 AVG – 3 scores below 90, 15 tons, 5 120+
As Kane has touched on, his average from this season is much more aligned with the ‘normative’ scoring for gawn rather than his exceptional 2020. 
No doubt there’ll be ruck sharing with Luke Jackson, both as he develops but also as the Demons try to prepare Max for a big few years of premiership defence. 
A potential positive is he’ll likely end career as RUC/FWD DPP. The question Gawn owners need to ponder is how quickly (if at all) you handcuff him to Luke Jackson?
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Rowan Marshall

KANEIt’s when not if for Rowan Marshall in a keeper. The fact that he’ll be 26 years of age at the start of 2022 and has already delivered premium numbers in the past three seasons is remarkable. 
The clear handbrake that every Marshall owner is waiting to be released is Paddy Ryder. While Ryder is in the Saints team he’ll be their primary centre bounce ruckman as that’s the best part of his game. This currently has relegated Marshall to second-fiddle and spending the bulk of his time forward. 
The positive with Marshall’s current role is that he’s a ruck-forward and yet he can still score. The season that will see Marshall’s stock rise to an all-time high will be the year he’s primary ruck and starts the season with forward status. That one year will be a massive advantage for the coach that owns him but even after that I see him as a 100 averaging ruck and that’s a piece that will hold any side in great stead going forward.
MJThe year is 2024… which rucks are at the top of the tree?  Is Brodie Grundy  still there? Some might have Sean Darcy  or even Reilly O’Brien. All validate candidates. But I propose another option? Rowan Marshall. By then, Rowan might well be the #1 ruck option in the game.

Marshall might be sharing ruck duties with Paddy Ryder for now, but I believe in 12 months time this RUC/FWD will be playing as a sole ruck. 
In 2019 when he was solo ruck he averaged 99 and posted twelve tons.  Last year he averaged 89 from 13 games with just five tons. Here’s the interesting split, all of these hundreds were when Ryder wasn’t playing. In fact he averaged just 77 from the seven games they played together. However, in the six games he rucked solo he averaged 103.7 

The beauty of Marshall for one lucky owner is you’ll get a Unicorn season from him in the next season or two. Where he’s RUC/FWD eligible but playing as a pure ruck, meaning he’ll likely average 100+. 

Hugh McCluggage

KANEIt’s rare to see players increase their average each year but through his first five seasons that’s exactly what Hugh McCluggage has done. 
At 23 years of age and fresh off his first 100 point season McCluggage is already in rarified air. Even if he was just to maintain his current output he’d be a top 25 midfielder for the next seven years, which can’t be understated. 
I do think there’s a bit more improvement in McCluggage though. Currently, he plays predominantly an outside role but he’s certainly capable of playing on the inside if required and it will only take a couple more CBA’s to push his average to 105 and then he’s inside the top 20. 
The other factor you have to love about McCluggage is his availability. In the past four seasons he’s played every game bar one! 
While he might never deliver a 110+ season I think his reliability and availability will make him an excellent keeper for many years to come. 
MJI’m not sold Hugh McCluggage ever gives us the monster 110-115+ season, that’s due to him likely being more outside impacting midfielder. But that said, I don’t see him dropping under 95-105 for the next 8 seasons.
Last season he averaged 100, it included thirteen tons, eight of these were over 110, and just twice last season his scoring dipped under 74. 
This is a breakdown of his scoring spread from last season: 50% from kicks, 16% HB, 15% marks, 14% tackles, 3% goals. That’s a player who’s not dependent on one ‘variable’ to score.  An unheralded stat line for Hugh is around his durability. In the past four seasons missed one game. 
The human suitcase may never become the ‘monster’ elite like others on this list, but he will be a crucial cog in keeper leagues for the better part of a decade. 
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Caleb Serong

KANEWhat Caleb Serong has already demonstrated in his first two seasons is phenomenal. Since earning his debut in Round 4 last year Serong hasn’t missed a game, playing 36 straight. 
In that time he’s already shown a massive ceiling. In Round 6 this year against North Melbourne he scored 143 points on the back of 35 disposals, seven marks and seven tackles. For comparison, fellow Tier 5 midfielder Hugh McCluggage has a career-high of 128 points despite playing another 70 games. 
It wasn’t just a one-off either with Serong reeling off back to back to back tons to finish the season (118, 117 and 116 in Round 21-23). In addition, to a ton and three 90s in the reduced gametime of the 2020 season.
While the departure of Adam Cerra will certainly help Serong I don’t see it as the main reason for his improvement in 2022 and beyond. The real upside for Serong is that his time on ground is extremely low (70% range) and that should continue to increase as he gets more preseasons under his belt. The other thing that will help Serong is his role. This year he was tasked with numerous run-with roles in the early part of the year before being released to hunt the ball in the later part of the year. I believe that was all part of his learning and won’t be something we see often going forward. 
At 20 years of age there’s a decade of 100+ scoring on the horizon for this Fremantle rising star. 
MJNailing the picks inside the top 50 of a brand new keeper is critical to immediate and sustained success. Caleb Serong has the forecast potential to be among one of the best players in the years to come. 
If you want a long term 105 averaging midfield with potential for more you’ve got to jump ahead of where a redraft or seasonal draft league board would rank them. 
Last year he split his season playing some defensive minded midfield roles before being released in the last month. It was his final three weeks where he scored 18, 117 & 116 that really caught people’s attention. Across the 2021 year he averaged 82, which was made up of five tons including a personal best 143. 
In a BCV era 2020 we still saw the raw potential of scoring brilliance.  That year he took six games before debuting with a BCV ton (aka an 80+) score. But it was back to back 90’s before he scored a pure 101 (aka 120 in BCV world). 
He’ll get plenty of preseason hype among the AFLFantasy community, so if you want to own him you can’t expect too many to sleep on him. 
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Matt Crouch

KANELet’s start with the positives surrounding Matt Crouch. From 2017 to 2020 he averaged between 105-110 points and played 90 percent of games. Throw into the mix that he’s 26 years old and should have 3+ years of elite scoring ahead of him, you’d be fair to ask why he’s not in a higher tier.
Well that’s where we do have to address the negatives. When you miss a whole season through injury, alarm bells are rightly going to go off. Particularly, when the injury is a groin and is prone to linger and re-occur. 
There’s also some concern around how Adelaide will structure their midfield and amount of opportunity Crouch may get with Laird and Keays coming off impressive seasons and the plethora of youth the Crows are trying to develop. I still believe Crouch is one of their top centre bounce midfielders but any dip in attendance would negatively impact his scoring. 
Hopefully by the time you have to make a decision on drafting/trading Crouch we have an update on how his body is progressing through the preseason. Clearly there’s some massive risk if he’s unable to get on the park but there’s also plenty of upside with his scoring power. 
MJOne of the greatest dangers in keepers is that with established players you go ‘too far back’ in their scoring history. By osmosis, you can start to value them at a potentially inflated price and begin paying a draft position based on who they’ve been not what they’ll deliver. 
In the case of Matt Crouch, I don’t believe that’s a risk you need to worry about. At 26, he’s still right in the prime of his career and should he 
Looking back at his most recent season, 2020 was a bizarre season for Crouch. Before getting dropped in round four due to poor form, Crouch was averaging 64.3 (80 adjusted) and had a top score of 72. When he returned in round five he scored 4 tons, 4 additional scores over 90, 2 over 80 and had the lowest score of 75. In these final 13 matches, he averaged 93.9 (adjusted 117)
The years prior he averaged 106, 104 & 106. Clearly, the risk with Crouch isn’t scoring ability, it’s what level does he return to post a season ruined by injury? That is the big question coaches will need to answer before investing in him.

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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Six | Patreon Exclusive
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Read Time:14 Minute, 48 Second

MJ & Kane continue their analysis on who they believe are the top 50 players for a brand new UltimateFooty Keeper league.
In tier six, we look at seven more players and unpack their fantasy potential.

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Adam Cerra

KANEA lot of the glow from Adam Cerra’s time at Fremantle has rightly gone to Andy Brayshaw and Nat Fyfe but Cerra is set to boom. 

After playing much of his AFL career across half-back and half-forward I think we’re finally about to see him released as an inside midfielder. 

In 2021 we saw Cerra’s CBA’s increase and as a result we saw some ceiling in the final rounds of the season. In Round 19 Cerra racked up 129 points thanks to 30 disposals, nine marks and two goals and backed it up the next week with 138 points courtesy of 33 disposals, eight marks and six tackles. 

I know it’s only a couple days but that’s the type of well-rounded scoring that the uber premiums have. With the chatter that Cerra will land at Carlton who are screaming out for midfield support I think we get a 95-100 season from him in 2022 and then consistent 100 seasons after that. 
MJWhen I think of how best to describe Adam Cerra as a player the first word that comes to mind is class. ‘Chez’ has this uncanny ability to make the difficult look easy and find his teammates lace out from seemingly impossible positions. 
The scoring consistency hasn’t yet popped for him, just last year alone he delivered just four scores over 100. But what I like about his scoring is the steady build. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 60, 75 (BCV) and now an 87 which includes an injury impacted 15. 
If this current scoring trend both continues and maintains at his new club, he should average 95 for the next 7-8 seasons. Additionally, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ever cracked a few seasons over the 105 marker. 
At Carlton (his rumoured club of choice) he’ll never get tagged. That will always be Sam Walsh or Patrick Cripps if he can ever get back to his former glory. Having Cerra as potentially the #3 midfielder will be an exciting proposition for Blues fans but also for keeper coaches.
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Bailey Smith

KANEThere’s definitely a lot of merit in taking superstar players even if their scoring isn’t quite reflective of their standing in the game, as there’s always a buyer in the league that wants to own them. 

I don’t want the above comment to downplay Smith’s fantasy ability though. In his three seasons he’s already demonstrated that he has elite scoring traits. In 2021 alone he produced scores of 131,127, 125, 118 to go with a 126 in the semi final against Brisbane. That’s incredible scoring for a third year player.

My major concern with Smith as a fantasy prospect is his role. He’s been so damaging as a wingman with his workrate and capacity to hit the scoreboard that I worry he’ll be locked into this role for the bulk of his career. 

It’s extremely difficult to be a wingman that pushes past 105 and with Bontempelli, Liberatore, Macrae, Dunkley and Treloar all having multiple years of elite football ahead of them I don’t see a need to move Smith into a sought after inside midfield role. 

Even if Smith stays out on a wing for the next five years he’s too good of a player to average less than 90 points. I don’t think the fantasy output will match his superstardom but it will be more than good enough for many years to come.
MJI gotta be upfront with you. In keeper leagues, you want players that can score, but you always want to enjoy the player on your list. Thankfully, Bailey Smith ticks both of those boxes for keeper coaches.
Smith is genuinely one of the most watchable players in the AFL right now, and at just 21 years old when the season starts he’ll continue to only get better. 
Since debuting for the club he hasn’t missed a game. And in that debut year, he finished with an average of 69. Many know about my ‘games to first-ton’ metric for keeper values. For Bailey, it took him 14 games before that first ton. However, he had 3 scores over 90 before that. 
In 2020, he delivered a BCV average of 86 which included one pure ton and an additional six over 80. Remember in 2020 ‘80 was the new 100’ due to the shorter game time. 
For the season just gone, he averaged 87, scored six tons which included four over 115. 
The score build is there. He wins the contested ball, also accumulates the uncontested stuff, he tackles, marks and kicks goals. He’s well and truly the total package!
The lack of positional stability is of concern, as that impact both his ceiling and scoring basement. But at just 20 years of age at the time of writing, he has plenty of time to lock down a permanent position. 
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Sean Darcy

KANEIt was the breakout season we’ve all been waiting for from Sean Darcy. The 23-year-old ruckman played 21 games (his previous best was 15 out of 17 in 2020) and demonstrated the scoring power we saw glimpses of in his first season. 

Darcy’s average of 94 points was headlined with scores of 133, 132 and 122 but also brought down with scores of 44 (vs St Kilda, limited by injury and played forward) 59 (vs West Coast & Nic Naitanui) and 64 (vs Collingwood & Grundy). 

There’s clearly two massive challenges for Darcy as he aspires to match the top rucks. Firstly, his body. He needs to string seasons of 20+ games together and missing just three games in the past two seasons is an encouraging sign. Secondly, increase his floor. You can’t have 30-40 dips on your average when you face the best rucks in the competition. 

With a rising list around him and obvious role guarantees, Darcy has all the traits to be a long term ruck option. If you’re picking him in this range I think you have him pegged as a 95-100 player going forward. If you’re higher on him don’t be afraid to make your move earlier, if you lower on him well he’ll be well and truly gone by the time you’re comfortable to take him.
MJEver since Sean Darcy broke onto the football scene back in 2017 it;’s been clear he has the fantasy pedigree. A debut score of 80 was followed up a week later with a 114. The potential has always been there, but the injury issues in his body had previously let him down. Prior to this year, he’d never played more the 15 games in a season.

In 2021 he played 21 games, scored nine tons including three over 120 and an extra eight more scores over 80. And to be honest I thought he was pretty perfect in his year. But can he get better? In theory, yes, but for him to elevate himself to the Brodie Grundy territory of rucks, he’ll need to continue to improve on his endurance and athleticism. 

If he can do that, it’ll provide him with the necessary opportunities to push that average north of 105-110. 
Valuing rucks in any draft is both difficult and divisive. Everyone has differences of opinion. And that’s fine, but from a topline perspective, I’ll say this. Would you be prepared to spend a round 4 round draft pick on a player who’s 23 years old and likely top 3-4 in his line for the next 7+ seasons? For me, the answer is clearly ‘yes,’ which is why he’s in this tier on our list. 
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Matt Rowell

KANEAre you a glass half full or glass half empty kind of coach?

The junior pedigree and first four games of Matt Rowell are historic but injuries and some underwhelming performances since have put a halt to much of the hype. 

For a player like Rowell who has 10+ years ahead of him I think there’s always going to be at least one coach who jumps early so to get him I think you’re going to have to reach inside the top 25 picks. I feel comfortable in the 30s and wouldn’t be expecting 100+ in 2022 but more so high 80s, low 90s. 

No doubt Rowell could be a top 10 prospect as soon as 12 months from now and reward the coach that selects him for a long time. Ideally from now and draft day in Feb/March you’d love to hear that he’s tearing up the track in preseason and is healthy.
MJHow long can we be prepared to hold onto his junior numbers and start of the 2020 season and believe these as normal? 
In 2020 before succumbing to his season ending shoulder injury, he scored 64, 108, 104, & 78 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam resulting in an average of 70.8 or 88.5 adjusted. 
In the NAB League for Oakleigh, Rowell averaged 123 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. From his seven games, he averaged 32 disposals, 17 contested possessions, eight tackles and four marks per game.
This year, 12 games, an average of  55 and he didn’t score over 80 all year. The past 2 seasons of serious injury hits are a little concerning, but not alarming. At 20, he’s got a mountain of time on his side. 
I still think Rowell has the potential to be a 110+ averaging midfielder, and positively for new keeper leagues, he’s probably slipped a round or two in peoples eyes for when they target to draft him.
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Reilly O’Brien

KANEWhen to pick a ruck is always a challenge in a keeper and largely it depends on the setup of your league. Clearly the deeper the league the more valuable they become, particularly if you have the utility position activated. 

For this list, we’ve gone with 10 teams and one ruck on the field so the value is lesser but there’s always a need for a good one. 

The hard thing with ROB is what is his value? The upside looks to be near the best in the league as he’s demonstrated stretches of 110 scoring, however, in 2020 he had some scores that were shockers from a fantasy perspective and as a result his average fell into the 80s. 

With the reports ROB was carrying injury throughout much of the season I see him averaging near 100 for the next 3-5 years. The Riley Thilthorpe addition is a massive positive for ROB in my opinion as it means the Crows won’t play a second traditional ruck and instead have a talented ruck-forward in Thilthorpe to share the ruck duties with. 
MJWhich is the real Reilly O’Brien? Is it what he delivered in 2021? Or is it closer to his previous efforts when holding the #1 ruck mantle? 
From 20 games last year he averaged 86, scoring 5 tons and just an additional seven scores 80 or higher. Pleasingly for owners looking for ‘upside’, his 6 lowest scores came in the opening 10 rounds. But in the last 10 games of the year, he dropped his scores under 87 just twice. 

In 2020 he averaged 86.7 Avg (108 adjusted average) and scored 6 tons and 5 additional scores 80+.  While in 2019 he averaged 95 from 18 games. 
The club has confirmed that for major portions of the season that he was carrying some injury concerns of his lower back. So for me, there’s enough data for me to have greater confidence to think he’s closer to 2019/2020 scoring than 2021.  
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Zak Butters

KANEZak Butters is on his list largely for the eye test. The way he plays the game and the skill set he has projects as an elite player for mine. 

Now that’s not to say he hasn’t demonstrated some scoring power already. 

In the shortened games of 2020 Butters delivered scores of 114, 97 and 85 and in 2021 he produced scores of 119, 91, 90 and 88 in the full length games. 

This more than enough scoring for a player who has only played three seasons and hasn’t seized a prosperous midfield role. 

The best case for someone like Butters is that he becomes what Robbie Gray was in his prime. From 2014-2016 Gray averaged 96, 97 and 98 points while maintaining forward status and could always be relied upon for a big game.    
MJThe balance of keeper leagues is paying for a player at what they will be, and not just what they have. The risk to do this is you can pay for a layer ‘earlier than others’ as your forecasting potential.
At 21 years old the signs are there that Zak Butters knows how to deliver fantasy points, just looks at some of the signs from 2021.
R5, 119 |  36 touches, 6 tackles and a goalR20, 88 | 22 touches, 6 marks, 1 goalR21, 90 | 19 touches, 2 goalsR22, 91 |  25 touches 
I see another 8+ seasons of 85+ seasonal averages from Butters. There is a ‘small risk’ he moves into a predominate midfield role and loses that forward eligibility. However, the upside is that if he’s around the ball that much to lose FWD status, he’s probably averaging 95+ anyway. So in reality it’s probably not much of a loss. 
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Jordan De Goey

KANEJordan De Goey might be the most complicated player in the 50!

At 25 years of age he should be in the prime of his career and based off his second half of the season his scoring is certainly good enough (106 from Round 11-23).

Where it gets tricky to project De Goey going forward is the new coach – Craig McRae. How does he envisage De Goey in his Collingwood side in 2022 and beyond? What is the split between midfield and forward? 

I can’t see De Goey’s average falling below 80 and that would be with playing the majority of his time forward. Sole midfield his average should be edging towards triple figures as he has all the tools in his fantasy game to do so. 

The ideal mix is clearly just enough forward time to remain forward eligible with the rest in the midfield hunting the ball. If this happens I can see De Goey as a 90-100 player and constant top forward.
MJMr Upside is what I want to call Jordan De Goey. Much has been made about both his notorious start to 2021 scoring and a stunning ending. 
2021 was a tale of two scoring halves from his seasonal average of 84. Between rounds 1-10 he averaged 57 including an injury affected 3. However, from rounds 11-23 he averaged 106 with a high of 125 and a low of just 93. 
I don’t have any concerns about him losing forward status both in the immediate and long term. De Goey is far too imposing a forward 50 option, and no coach would want to lose him from there permanently. 
The greatest unknown for him is what’s the game style of the Magpies under McRae? Will it be high ball retention like last year? Or will they be looking for more impact per possession? I still rate him as a career 80+ FWD from now till retirement.  

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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Seven | Patreon Exclusive
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Read Time:7 Minute, 46 Second

So you’ve decided to start up a keeper league! But not sure where you should rank players, especially early on? Good news, MJ & Kane have ranked the top 50 players into eight different selection tiers! This article accompanies the podcasts to help give you a quick reference guide when wither creating your new keeper ranks. Or if in an existing keeper, to target some potential trade candidates.

Welcome to Tier Seven!

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Christian Salem

KANEChristian Salem’s appearance on this list might surprise a few but it’s certainly warranted. To have a defender reliably producing high 80s averages at the age of 26 is hard to find. 

He’s now a key cog in the Melbourne defence from not only a transition from back 50 to forward 50 perspective but also his ability to defend on small forwards. 

While Salem might have a lower floor than someone like Tom Stewart he has the ceiling to offset the lows and I believe hasn’t had his career-best year.
MJIt’s not a flashy pick, and for some, ranking him inside the top 40 odd picks might be high, but the numbers and his positional security indicate he’s worth it. 
Since 2017 he’s averaged 85, 79, 89, 88 and this year coming off the back of a personal best 93. This year he had 9 tons and an additional 5 scores 80+. In addition to his relative consistency is he holds some ceiling with scores of 141, 126 & 119. 
In the past four seasons, he’s missed five games and has no chance of losing DEF position. At 26 years old he got another 5+ seasons of being a reliable backman for your keeper side. 
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Tom Stewart

KANETom Stewart has been the dream mature age recruit. In his debut season in 2017 he played 21 games and the following four seasons have yielded three All-Australian honours.

As good as his football is, it’s fantasy prospects that have him on this list. In the past three years Stewart has been one of the best defenders with averages of 95, 96 and 97 points. 

He doesn’t boast the ceiling of others but his consistency is remarkable and he rarely dips below 80 points. At 28 years of age you can bank on elite scoring for the next three seasons.
MJMr Consistent. It’s plain and simple. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 95, 96 (BCV) & 97. In 2021 he scored 11 tons and just one score below 79.  
Ceiling scores can win you draft matchups, but equally, low basement scores can bury you. Tom Stewart is 10 point deviation on either side of a 90 most weeks. 
At 28 years old, this is arguably the only major ‘risk’ with Stewart, but I can’t see a world where unless injuries strike he doesn’t continue on his scoring trend for a few more seasons to come. 
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Jordan Ridley

KANEJordan Ridley has been phenomenal since he established himself in the Bombers best side in 2020. Not only did Ridley deliver an adjusted average of 89, he won the Crichton Medal as the Bombers best and fairest winner. 
2021 started with a bang! In the first four games he was averaging 108 points before concussion ended his day in Round 5 on just 15 points. After he served his concussion protocol missing Round 6, Ridley could only manage 77 points across the final 16 games. 
As disappointing as that average was I think the lack of lockdown defenders the Bombers had was the reason for Ridley not scoring as well. With Jake Kelly joining the club I think this will allow Ridley to return to his fruitful intercepting role. 
A year-in year-out defender who can average 80+ at the age of 23 is extremely hard to find. While 2021 was a regression I think it will be viewed as merely a hiccup in the career of Ridley. 
MJPositional security in keeper league sides is huge, especially in the back and forward lines. If you can secure a long term prospect that won’t lose these positions it can help your list profile drastically.
Jordan Ridley might not ever end up being a top tier defender, but what he will be is a reliable long term option.
Since his breakout in 2020 where he averaged a BCV 89, he followed it up this year with an 80. Note this did include an injury impacted score of 15. Over the season he had 4 tons and an additional 6 scores of 80+. 
At 22 years old, if he can lift his scoring floor a little more he looks like he’s a safe 85 back for the next 8+ seasons.

The other factor to consider is the impending arrival of Jake Kelly. Jake’s a more than handy lockdown defender capable of playing or either small or tall types. The inclusion could further free up Ridley to play purely as an attacking interceptor. 
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Jack Crisp

KANEDurability. Availability. Here-if-you-need-ability. Simply Jack Crisp doesn’t miss games, in fact, he’s played 163 in a row.
As good as reliability is in keepers though it’s nothing if you can’t score and in Crisp’s seven seasons with Collingwood, he’s averaged 84+ in all of them. 
While Crisp’s back status may be under threat going into next season there’s every chance he regains through the year. Even if he remains a pure midfielder we saw Crisp deliver 100+ scores, which is still extremely valuable.  
MJSo much of his ranking does depend on whether he retains back status in 2022. Regardless, with the Pies bringing in a new coach we always need to show some level of caution. 
That being said, Jack Crisp delivers on all the key metrics we want. Arguably his best asset is that he’s had seven consecutive seasons where he hasn’t missed a game of AFL. In that time he’s averaged 84 or higher including a personal best 101.7 last year.

If he stays playing as a midfielder, I expect he stays as a safe 100 averaging centre. Conversely, if he returns to the backline he’ll still score enough to be a D1 or D2. Honestly, you can’t lose. 
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Patrick Dangerfield

KANEWhile not the dominant force he was in a keeper five years ago when he averaged 117.9 (2016) and 120.5 (2017), Patrick Dangerfield’s durability and fantasy output is nothing short of remarkable. Across nine home and away seasons Dangerfield played 187 of a possible 193 games and averaged 106 points. Let that wash over you for a moment. 
I’ve been preaching future performance in keepers so I do have to put those numbers largely to the side. The important thing going forward is clearly his forward status. Dangerfield will retain forward status for the remainder of his career and only injury will stop him being one of the games best forwards for the next three years. 
If you pick Dangerfield you need to be thinking premiership from the jump so don’t be afraid to grab some elder statesmen who are still scoring well.  
MJThe former Brownlow Medalist is one of only two players ranked inside our top 50 that are aged 30+. Why? Because in new keepers it’s important to pay a draft position with what they are/will be, not what they have been.
That said, Danger still will provide strong value for owners as he should retain MID/FWD DPP. 
Last seasons average of 86 is his lowest tally since 2011. Equally important, his 13 games is the smallest since his debut season of 2008. That said he still managed four tons including a monster 149. Write him off at your peril, as he is still at 31 has the potential of 2-3 more years as a top tier forward. 

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Eight | Patreon Exclusive
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Read Time:14 Minute, 48 Second

So you’ve decided to start up a keeper league! But not sure where you should rank players, especially early on? Good news, MJ & Kane have ranked the top 50 players into eight different selection tiers! This article accompanies the podcasts to help give you a quick reference guide when wither creating your new keeper ranks. Or if in an existing keeper, to target some potential trade candidates.

If you want to understand more about tiering by ranks, listen to this podcast explaining it all.

TIER EIGHT

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Ben Keays

KANEIf Ben Keays was a top 10 pick with an 108 average to his name at 24 years of age there would be a lot more hype around his name. However, in many coaches eyes he’s still a guy that was delisted from his first club and not long for AFL level.

What I’ve seen from Keays at Adelaide doesn’t support this narrative. He’s already played more games in his two years with the Crows (38 games) than he did with four years at Brisbane (30 games). Only twice at the Lions did Keays have more than 20 disposals in a game, this year at Adelaide he had 20+ in all 22 games, including 10 games where he had 30+ and a career-high 38. 

I think it’s safe to say Keays is a different player at Adelaide to Brisbane and a lot of that is due to his role as an inside midfielder. While many will be scared that the role could depreciate with the return of Matt Crouch and growth of Harry Schoenberg, I still have faith in Keays to average 95-100 at a minimum.

The coaching staff clearly rated his efforts in 2021 as they rewarded him with a runner-up finish in the best and fairest and it would take a massive role change for his scoring to fall away in the prime of his career.
MJEverything clicked for Ben Keays in 2021. Keays played 22 games, averaged 108, scored 13 tons, with six of them above 120. He had just one score beneath 80 all year and ranked 13th for total points scored. 
From a fantasy perspective, he does it all. He wins the contested footy, works both ways and is prepared to do the defensive team stuff. And gets involved in the uncontested, running wave of the Crows. Last year he ranked 10th in the AFL for inside ’50s and has developed a clever knack of booting the odd goal.
The question for me isn’t can he score well again next year? Clearly, he has the game build for it. Rather, the uncertainty comes not knowing what impact does a healthy Matt Crouch have on his numbers? Along with an increased midfield presence of Harry Schoenberg, Luke Pedlar and Sam Berry? 
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Connor Rozee

KANEConnor Rozee burst onto the scene in 2019 playing all 22 games and averaging 72.5 points. It only took Rozee three games to post his first career ton, an electric 121-point effort against Brisbane on the back of  21 disposals, seven marks and five goals.

Rozee produced another ton before his debut season was out to showcase it was no fluke but since has battled injury and inconsistent form. 

The beautiful thing with Rozee is that he’s already played 59 AFL games, including four finals, and will be 22 years old when the 2022 season starts. That’s an incredible amount of experience for a player of his age. 

Rozee is already a solid scorer playing primarily forward, which should mean any sort of midfield uptick, and let’s face it Port need midfield help to support Travis Boak and Ollie Wines, should result in him reaching top 10 forward status comfortably. 
MJA stat that’s very important to me in keeper leagues is the number of games played before converting your first fantasy 100. It took only three games for Connor Rozee. Injuries have frustrated his past two seasons, but it’s clear that Connor is a star footballer when fit, and unlike some others, it does correlate to fantasy scoring. 
In his debut season, he averaged 72, with five scores over 90. This season from his 19 games, he had five scores over 85, not bad for a guy carrying niggles most of the year. I believe he’s a long term MID/FWD.  The most significant value piece is if he retains this long term, he’s a potential 80-85 guy with a small ceiling. If he moves into the midfield, then he’s a 100+ performer. Either way, you can’t lose. 
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Noah Anderson

KANEIn keeper leagues like all fantasy you always have to remember you’re paying for future performance. 
I know a lot of coaches want to see a player deliver before jumping on board but in keepers in particular you don’t have that luxury. If you want to secure the next generation of stars you have to be prepared to jump earlier than most would feel comfortable and Noah Anderson is certainly that type of player.
In his two seasons at AFL level Anderson has played 37 of a possible 39 games and averaged 77.6 across that time. However, it’s the ceiling that is most impressive for me. To already have two 120 scores under your belt and five games with 30+ disposals in your second season is extremely rare. 
I see Anderson a 100 midfielder for the better part of a decade and if he’s moved into a predominately inside role could have a couple of 110 years mixed in. 
MJForecasting is an important factor in keeper leagues. You need to ‘jump’ earlier than others might to get the future’ guns’ to secure them. For example, to pick Noah Anderson inside the top 50 for some might be early, but all his trends suggest he’s on the way to be a highly valuable asset. 
In his debut season, he averaged a more than respectable 73.5. Contrary to some former keeper league stars, Scott Pendlebury averaged 62 in his first year, while Jackson Macrae went at 63. 
Entering into 2021 he lifted his average up to 81 and importantly posted 4 tons, all of which were over 115. With 5 additional scores 80+. This scoring trajectory is very healthy and will only get better as he enters into the famed ‘3rd-year breakout next season. The Gold Coast midfielder looks destined to become a long term 100+ performer for the next decade. 
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Brad Crouch

KANEFor many coaches, Brad Crouch still has a stink due to the injury issues that plagued the first six years of his career and because of that he’s often undervalued.  
The past three seasons are as far back as I base my fantasy research as too much changes beyond that. Looking at Brad’s past three seasons he’s played 54 of a possible 61 games and averaged 99.8 (2020 averaged adjusted to full game time by multiplying the average by 1.25). 
In that three-year window, Brad missed two of the games due to an off-field suspension, so I’m comfortable with his availability. Moreover, my confidence in his scoring has never wavered, he scores when he plays, largely due to the fact he absorbs a prosperous inside midfield role. 
Clearly Jack Steele is the Saints No. 1 man but that’s perfect for Brad who can just hunt ball and man and deliver 100 point seasons for the next 3-5 years. 
MJOver the last few seasons, Brad’s been a rollercoaster ride to own in drafts. In 2015 & 2018 he played zero footy. However, in 2019 he averaged 107.9 and was ranked 7th for total overall points.
Promisingly over the past few seasons he’s only had one minor hamstring setback and finally appears to be over the ‘injury-prone tag’.
In his first season as a saint, he averaged 95.2, scored 11 tons and had 4 over 120. Not amazing, but the 27-year-old has shown now across multiple seasons and clubs he has the ability to deliver a strong run of tons.
At St Kilda, he’ll never get tagged over Jack Steele. But like his captain, he has an uncanny ability to find himself near the footy. He might not get back to his PB season of a few years back where he was a top 10 scorer, but he’s one of the safest 95+ performers going around. 
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Toby Greene

KANEToby Greene is a polarising footballer and that extends to his fantasy game. A lot of the traits we look for in a fantasy prospect Greene lacks: namely availability and consistency. 
His propensity to get injured or suspended can drive coaches mental. While the nature of his ‘key’ forward role naturally invites volatility in scoring.
Yet he still makes the top 50. So he must be doing something right. 
What Greene does right is maintain forward status year on year, which can’t be understated. Reliable scoring forwards are so hard to come by and when Greene plays he’s near on guaranteed to score 80+ if not 90+. Some coaches will put a line through him because they can’t stand him but he’s the exact type of player that can deliver you a flag if the stars align. 
MJWhether you’ve played the ‘classic’ games of fantasy before or always been a ‘draft coach,’ you’d know that the greatest player positional security line is the forwards. 
It’s why players like Toby Greene even with his suspension tendencies to miss multiple games a year is a highly desirable asset. Even though the Giants love him occasionally in the midfield, it’s inside forward 50 he’s the most prolific.
Since 2014 this is his seasonal averages: 103, 86, 93, 91, an injury impacted 67, 98, 82 (BCV) and last year an 84. 
It says it all really, at 27 he’s got at least another 4-5 seasons of high performing top end forward scores for his keeper league owners. 
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Jy Simpkin

KANEJy Simpkin has so many elements to his game that make him a great keeper. At 23 years of age he’s already got 95 games under his belt at AFL level, which demonstrates not only his durability but adaptability. 
Simpkin started his career as a small forward and looked every part a good one, but his move to the midfield has catapulted his fantasy stocks.
In 2021 he played every game and averaged an impressive 95 points (105 post bye across 11 games). But for me it’s not just the 27 disposals, four marks and four tackles that jump out to me but the eye test. 
Simpkin provides something different to that Roos midfield. He has a contested game, but his ability to operate cleanly in traffic and spread will make him a mainstay in his current role.
MJIn 2020 we saw the breakout of Jy Simpkin. He elevated himself from a mid 60’s averaging performer into a respectable 88.5 BCV. This year that development continued as he averaged 95. 
At first glance, a 95 might not feel enough to qualify for this tier, but at 23 years old getting 8 seasons of 95+ averages is something of high value. The good news is the year is slightly deceiving. Over the first 11 games, Simpkin post just 4 tons and averaged 86. However, in the final 11 games post-bye, he scored 8 tons and had just one score below 96.
Encouragingly, he’s proving to be quite durable, with him missing just one match over the past 4 seasons. 
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Tarryn Thomas

KANEI can’t lie I didn’t see Tarryn Thomas’ 2021 breakout coming at all. After his 2020 campaign was struck down six games in due to a left foot injury I thought 2021 would be a gradual step forward. What we got though was a glimpse at a player that could be a genuine star of the competition and exactly what the Roos would have dreamed of when they selected their Next Gen Academy prospect. 
The tailend of the season is what has Thomas in the 50. First, to average 93 postbye across 11 games and most notably 107 in the final five games, which included the four highest scores of his career – 96, 115, 120 and 126.Those are serious numbers!
The major concern I had for Thomas he answered in that postbye stretch.Ball winning: Averaging 21 disposals (high of 26)
Ticking that disposal box combined with his ability to take a mark, lay a tackle, and kick a goal demonstrates that he can build his score in many different ways, which is exactly what it takes to be a premium player long term. 
MJIt was a breakout season for Tarryn, averaging 81 and playing 21 games. However, looking into his season with more detail, the breakout is still deceiving to his accurate scoring. In the first 14 games, he had just one score over 90 and 5 scores between 50-59. However, it’s his final seven game stretch that should excite coaches. A top score of 126, two additional tons and the lowest score in that run of 78. In this stretch of games, he averaged 101.
Like some others on this tier in Rozee and Heeney, Thomas is so valuable and damaging inside forward 50, it would be doing the Kangaroos a disservice to exclude him from big minutes as a forward. That said, I think North Melbourne do need his class and Xfactor through the midfield. 
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Isaac Heeney

KANEYou don’t have to watch much football to know Isaac Heeney is a special player. To be 25 years old and already have three genuine elite forward seasons under your belt is impressive. 
However, we can’t sugarcoat that the past two years for Heeney have been underwhelming. Injuries restricted him to six games in 2020, while this year saw him play 20 home and away games, injuries again curtailed his output in what was his lowest seasonal average since his first year.
The fact remains though that year on year forwards that can score 85+ don’t come around too often and that’s what Heeney is. So don’t be scared off by the past two years, remember we’re selecting him for future performance. To think that Heeney could finish his career without an All-Australian honour just doesn’t sit right with me, the best is definitely still to come.
MJOne of the significant challenges in managing a keeper list is ensuring that you don’t have an annual issue of positional insecurity. By that, I mean a yearly transition of eligible players in either the back or forward lines. 
While Isaac Heeney might never be a top 5-6 averaging forward, he’s a super consistent performer year on year. Between 2017 and 2019, he averaged 92, 90 & 89. This season, we did see a scoring dip with an average of just 76. However, even with this poor season, he still ranked as a top 30 FWD by averages. 
What we saw from Isaac was a greater variety of scoring. For example, he gave us multiple scores over 130, but also four scores sub 50. 
If he can get that scoring basement back towards his consistent 70’s of years gone by, then at 25, he’s one of the most dependable forward stocks to build around. 

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How do you rank Darcy Parish in a keeper?
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Read Time:2 Minute, 37 Second

Without a doubt, one of the breakout players in fantasy footy this season was Darcy Parish. The recently crowned All Australian midfielder moved from being on the fringe of squad selection to be an M1 potentially. The big question for new keeper leagues or those considering trading for him is how you should rank Darcy Parish in a keeper?

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In 2021, DP5 was one of the players of the season. He concluded the season with an average of 105.5, ranking him 21st and 16th for total points. That alone is a promising position, but coaches will know that it wasn’t a smooth trajectory for the totality of the season. 

Over the opening five weeks of the season, he averaged 86, and his sole ton of the year to date was 117. However, from Anzac Day against the Magpies that he was fully released to play as a midfielder. So from round six onwards, here’s the stat line for Parish. 

From the final 17 games of the season, he scored 11 tons, 7 of them over 120 and 2 over the monster mark of 150. He averaged 111.7 and put together a hot streak of 7 consecutive hundreds between round 6-12. 

With numbers like that over the final three-quarters of the season, keeper league coaches would think they’ve landed themselves a new franchise player. And it’s not a horrible call.

Like anything, you’ve always got to look at the narrative behind the numbers. Firstly, what caused the role change? Simple! A long-term injury to Dylan Shiel was after an almost season-ending injury to Jye Caldwell. So if injury created the opportunity, what happened upon their return?

Caldwell didn’t play again in the home and away season. But Shiel did in round 19. So in the 15 games, Parish played without Dylan, he averaged 117.7. However, when Shiel did play (7 games), he averaged 79.1. That’s a differential of 38.6. More specifically, over the final five games, when both played, Dylan averaged a mere 84.4. 

To be clear, I don’t see a world with him moving out of the midfield role. Instead, my concern is scoring like that, which impact his scoring ceiling. 

When allowed to be the midfield leader along with Zach Merrett, he’s a 110 averaging midfielder. However, when the Bombers have a few more mouths to feed, the small sample size says he’s not a Topline performer. 

So, how do you rank Darcy Parish? I don’t have him ranked inside the top 15 players in a keeper league. But he has the potential to become one quickly. If you want to own him, you’ll probably have to use a late first – second round selection on him.

Where do you have DP5 ranked?

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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