Tag: Midfield

#34 Most Relevant | Josh Dunkley

Over the past few years, Josh Dunkley has been one of my favourites to own in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam. 2023 was meant to be the season where he became a topline-scoring beast. While there were some ups and downs, I saw enough to suggest that Josh could still become the top-scoring player overall in 2024.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Josh Dunkley, a prominent player for the Brisbane Lions, possesses a diverse and formidable skill set that makes him a valuable asset. Renowned for his exceptional ability to win clearances, Dunkley excels in tight contests, showcasing his strength and tenacity. His high football IQ enables him to read the game effectively, positioning himself strategically to impact play both offensively and defensively.

Dunkley’s versatility is a key strength, allowing him to perform various roles, from midfield ball-getter to a forward line presence. His tackling prowess and endurance are standout attributes, ensuring he is consistently involved in the play and significantly contributes to his team’s performance. His skills in ball distribution, combined with his ability to break tackles and create scoring opportunities, round out a skill set that makes him a multifaceted and influential player in the AFL.

He entered the 2023 AFL season with high expectations in fantasy football. While his overall performance didn’t quite reach the anticipated heights, his season was punctuated with significant scoring bursts that showcased his potential.

In AFLFantasy, Dunkley posted a solid average of 103.5, tallying 12 scores over 100, with five exceeding 120 and only four below 80. His ability to play 21 out of 23 games was noteworthy, leading him to finish the year ranked 22nd for total points and 20th by average. These figures, while impressive, didn’t fully meet the lofty expectations set for him.

His performance in SuperCoach was even more striking. Dunkley averaged 113.8, with 15 scores above 100, including eight surpassing 120. Remarkably, he scored below 80 in only two games, cementing his position as the 7th-ranked midfielder by average for the season. This ranking underscores his effectiveness and consistency in the SuperCoach format.

However, a closer look at the details of Dunkley’s season reveals a 10-game stretch, from rounds 5-15, where he truly lived up to his preseason billing. During this period, he averaged an impressive 117.8 in AFLFantasy and an even more remarkable 130.4 in SuperCoach. This phase of the season highlighted Dunkley’s high-scoring capabilities and why he was so highly regarded going into the year. This scoring potential, demonstrated in these specific rounds, reflects Dunkley’s strong, albeit somewhat inconsistent, season and why he remains a significant player in the fantasy football landscape.

Over his AFL career, Dunkley has shown the pedigree of strong AFL Fantasy & SuperCoach scoring. In his history, there are multiple seasons where he averaged over 108, including a career-high 111 AFL Fantasy and 116.4 in SuperCoach in 2019.

While the ceiling scoring is in his history, we can’t hold on tightly to what he did in the past. Anything pre-2023 was done in a different team and system; therefore, it cannot be held as tightly for reference as in prior preseasons. At the Lions, he has shown us that the scoring capacity and ceiling are still there and that, heading into 2024, he’s highly capable of still being at the peak SuperCoach & AFLFantasy.

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MY TAKE

The decision to start Josh Dunkley in fantasy teams has been a topic of debate for many seasons, often seen as underwhelming in the eyes of many. This raises an important question: were our expectations for Dunkley unrealistic, or was there more to his performance than met the eye?

Understanding the nuances of AFL is crucial in making informed decisions in fantasy football. Dunkley’s statistical performance last season may appear patchy at first glance, but it’s essential to consider the broader narrative. There are several plausible explanations for the fluctuations in his scoring: adapting to a new team and structure at Brisbane, thriving as the season progressed due to the Lions’ and opponents’ game styles, and varying roles he was asked to play. Rather than sheer numbers, these factors should inform our understanding of Dunkley’s performance.

How you interpret Dunkley’s seasonal splits is pivotal in determining whether he offers scoring and financial upside, presents a risk, or should be kept on your watchlist. In the first four weeks of the year, he averaged 92.75 in AFLFantasy and 104.25 in SuperCoach, a modest start by his standards. However, Dunkley’s performance spiked dramatically in the following ten weeks, averaging 117.8 in AFLFantasy and 130.4 in SuperCoach.

His season was then interrupted by a calf strain in round 16. Still, upon returning in round 19, Dunkley closed out the final six games with an average of 95.1 in AFLFantasy and 98.6 in SuperCoach. This final stretch, while solid, didn’t match his mid-season highs.

The analysis of Josh Dunkley’s performance, particularly towards the end of the season, requires a deeper understanding of the game context and team dynamics. Notably, three of his four lowest season scores occurred last month. However, these numbers can only be accurate considering the specific roles Dunkley assigned in these games. For instance, in two of these low-scoring games, Dunkley was tasked with tagging key opponents Caleb Serong and Rory Laird. Such defensive assignments often limit a player’s ability to score highly in fantasy terms, as their focus shifts more towards restricting the opposition rather than accumulating their statistics.

Further influencing Dunkley’s performance was the injury to teammate Will Ashcroft. Dunkley’s scoring averages with Ashcroft on the field were significantly higher – 108.3 in AFLFantasy and 121.4 in SuperCoach. In contrast, in the games without Ashcroft, his averages dropped to 91 in AFLFantasy and 93.7 in SuperCoach. This stark difference underscores the impact of team composition and individual roles on a player’s fantasy output.

Ultimately, deciding whether to start Dunkley involves weighing these varied phases of his season against each other. It requires a balance of understanding the data, recognizing the impact of team dynamics and roles, and considering the broader context of his performance. Dunkley’s case illustrates that fantasy football decision-making is as much about interpreting the story behind the numbers as it is about the numbers themselves.

The fact that Brisbane Lions have an early bye in the AFL season, missing Round 2, adds a strategic layer to considering Josh Dunkley in your starting fantasy squad. The dilemma here isn’t just about Dunkley’s individual value and high-scoring potential, which is evident against his early opponents, but also about how selecting him impacts the balance of your team, especially when considering other players from Carlton and Brisbane, who are also off during that week. This necessitates carefully comparing and ranking Dunkley alongside players like Lachie Neale, Kiddy Coleman, Sam Walsh, and Zac Williams. Your choices here are pivotal, as they influence your overall squad selection and structure.

Starting multiple players with early byes increases your team’s risk profile. It could lead to a situation where you might not be able to drop poor scores from these players during the best 18 scoring rounds. This is a crucial factor to consider, especially in a game where maximizing every scoring opportunity is key to success.

The popular strategy in the fantasy community often leans towards avoiding players with early byes. However, this doesn’t necessarily rule out Dunkley or other similar players. It’s more about understanding how this choice affects the rest of your team selections.

A potential strategy for Dunkley might be to target him as an upgrade after the Lions’ round 12 bye. Post-bye, the Lions have a schedule that includes early-round matches, making Dunkley an ideal Vice-Captain option due to the timing of these games. With Friday night games against the Dogs in Round 13 and Saints in Round 14, followed by a first Saturday game against Port in Round 15, Dunkley’s early match appearances could be advantageous for fantasy managers looking for a high-scoring Vice-Captain.

With his credible scoring history, he should be seriously considered in our starting squads. His potential for high scores, combined with the strategic considerations around the Lions’ early bye, means he should also be closely monitored as a potential upgrade target throughout the season. His selection is not just about the points he brings but also about how he fits into the broader strategy of your fantasy football team.

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DRAFT DECISION

Josh Dunkley’s ranking varies between SuperCoach and AFLFantasy, reflecting his different impacts in each format. In SuperCoach, his impressive average positions him as an M1, making him a highly valuable pick. Given his scoring potential, selecting Dunkley in the late second or early third round would be a strategic move, capitalizing on his consistently delivering high scores.

In AFLFantasy, I would rank Dunkley as an M2. While his average might suggest an M3 ranking, his strong name recognition and proven track record in the game mean he’s unlikely to be available for long in most drafts. Fantasy managers recognize Dunkley’s potential and are often willing to pick him earlier, making him a sought-after player well before the M3 stage. In both formats, Dunkley’s scoring history and his value to the midfield make him a key target in fantasy drafts.

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#35 Most Relevant | Lachie Neale

Dive into the fantasy football world of Lachie Neale, the Brisbane Lions’ midfield maestro, as we unpack his fluctuating AFLFantasy and SuperCoach scores amidst team dynamics changes and an emerging youth bias for our teams in 2024.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Lachie Neale, from the Brisbane Lions, is a skilled footballer and a master of clearances, making him one of the best in the game. His ability to win the ball in tight situations is second to none, and his knack for beating almost any player in the AFL to the punch underscores his exceptional talent.

Though some of his statistical records in previous seasons may have outshone 2023, his performance last year remained dominant. Leading the league in clearances per game and ranking in the top five for both centre and stoppage clearances, Neale also made his mark within the top 20 for contested possessions, handballs, and contested possessions.

In AFLFantasy, Neale had a solid average of 97, notching up 13 scores over 100, with three surpassing 120, including a season-high of 127. However, he also recorded six scores below 80, indicating some variability in his performance.

In contrast, his SuperCoach season was even more impressive. Neale averaged 110.3, with 15 scores over 100 and eight above 120, peaking at a season-high 176. This placed him 19th in terms of the highest average for the year, ranking higher than notable players like Connor Rozee, Andrew Brayshaw, and Tim Taranto.

The season prior for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored thirteen tons, four of them over 120, all of which were between 133 and 145. He had five additional scores of 90+ and only had his scoring dip below 80 in just three games. He ended the season ranked eighth for total points, and his average of 107 places him with the tenth-best average from 2022.

For SuperCoach, he scored a ton in 86% of matches last year. He registered a triple-digit score in 19 of his 22 games. Eleven tons were above 120, six over 130, and three monsters over 160 – a 164, 187 & his career-high 198. From the three games in which he failed to score a ton, he had just one below 80. Last year, he was ranked first for total points and third by averages. His 122.8 was one of four players who went over 120 last season.

Ever since joining Brisbane, Lachie Neale has established himself as one of the most reliable players in fantasy football, particularly in SuperCoach. His consistent ability to score over 100 points makes him a valuable asset for any fantasy team. His on-field prowess, particularly in clearances, and his fantasy scoring capacity, especially in SuperCoach, underscores his value as a top-tier player in the AFL and the fantasy football arena.

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MY TAKE

Lachie Neale’s scoring in 2023, particularly in AFLFantasy, showed greater volatility than in previous years. While the familiar challenge of the tag impacted his performance, changes in the Brisbane Lions’ midfield dynamics played a significant role, too. Adding players like Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft significantly changed the midfield composition.

The early absence of Will Ashcroft in 2024, as he recovers from an ACL injury, is set to alter the midfield dynamic again. Neale averaged 99.4 in AFLFantasy with Ashcroft in the team for 18 games, but his average dropped to 87.5 in the six games without Ashcroft – a notable change of 11.9 points per game. This drop was also evident in SuperCoach, with averages of 113.3 with Ashcroft and 97.7 without him. Although this is based on a small sample size, it’s important to consider.

The tag risk for Neale is still a significant factor, as seen in multiple games last year where he was notably limited, like the round 20 clash against the Gold Coast Suns, scoring only 60 in AFLFantasy and 87 in SuperCoach. This was also evident in the AFL finals series against Port Adelaide, where he failed to score over 75 in any format. As the key midfielder in Brisbane’s lineup, Neale will likely attract the tag in 2024 against certain opponents.

Despite a regression in fantasy scoring last year compared to 2022 and other seasons, Neale still can score big. In the eight rounds from 9-17, he averaged 111.5 in AFLFantasy and 125.5 in SuperCoach. Owning him during this period would have been highly beneficial for fantasy managers.

The Lions’ participation in the opening round means they will miss one match in the first six rounds. While it’s a benefit to see them play a real match before the lockout, the downside is their early bye in round 2, arguably the worst due to both the Lions and Carlton missing out. Despite this, the Lions’ early fixture is favourable for inside midfielders. Another concern is the round 12 bye and a potential encounter with the league’s most restrictive tagger, Finn Maginness, in round 11. Are you okay with having a premium miss two matchups before some have missed a game? I’m not a huge fan.

Given the potential for the tag and the Lions not playing in round 2, it’s challenging to advocate for starting with Neale in your fantasy team. However, his historical scoring pedigree remains excellent. Neale monitors closely as an in-season upgrade target, where his price and scoring potential could align to make him a valuable addition to fantasy rosters.

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DRAFT DECISION

In AFLFantasy drafts, Lachie Neale is likely to be picked as an M3, primarily due to his enduring name recognition and reputation. Despite the volatility in his recent performances, many fantasy managers still value his proven track record and potential for high scoring. His name currency in the fantasy community holds significant weight, influencing his draft position.

In SuperCoach, Neale’s legacy and achievements position him more as an M2. However, there’s a growing trend where fantasy coaches might prioritize other lines or opt for emerging talent, potentially pushing Neale to an M3 spot in some drafts. This shift is indicative of a broader trend in the way people are viewing other lines.

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#36 Most Relevant | Christian Petracca

Dive into the dynamic world of Christian Petracca, Melbourne’s midfield maestro, as we explore his profound impact in AFLFantasy and SuperCoach formats. Uncover the nuances of his game and his pivotal role in fantasy drafts, where he stands as a top-tier selection in SuperCoach and a formidable force in AFLFantasy.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Christian Petracca is a quintessential example of a modern AFL midfielder, combining a unique skill set that makes him one of the most damaging players on the field. His strength in contests, coupled with a high football IQ, makes him a formidable opponent in the thick of the midfield battle. Petracca doesn’t rely on brute force; his game intelligence allows him to take calculated risks, often paying off spectacularly.

As a good ball user, he knows how to make each possession count, whether setting up a play or going for a goal. Moreover, his ability to perform under pressure is evident both in the congested midfield and when isolated one-on-one in the forward line, making him a dual threat that is hard to stop.

In AFLFantasy for the 2023 season, Petracca’s performance was impressive. He averaged 106, with 17 scores over 100, including three surpassing 120, and remarkably, he had just one score under 80. This consistency earned him the 15th rank by average and 9th by overall points – a testament to his reliability and scoring prowess.

In SuperCoach, Petracca elevated his game even further. He averaged an exceptional 119.4, with an outstanding 20 scores over 100, of which 11 were above 120, and his season-low score was a still-impressive 95. These achievements placed him third in overall points, trailing only behind Marcus Bontempelli and Tim English and fourth by average, behind Clayton Oliver, Bontempelli, and English.

During the 2022 season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, his seasonal average of 102.5 ranked him as the 14th-best midfielder in the game. He scored thirteen tons, five over 120, including 136, 139, 141 & 142. Those are some strong ceiling games! And in the first ten games of the season, he averaged 111. Alongside these top-end scoring elements were five scores below 80. We’ll address one of them in particular shortly. By the season’s conclusion, he was ranked eleventh for total points. Not a bad result for a guy who had a ‘down’ season in the eyes of many.

His SuperCoach season was even stronger. His average of 112.3 made him the 8th best midfielder by averages and seventh best for points. He ended 2022 as the ninth-highest scorer across the format. He got there by scoring twelve tons; he converted eight into scores over 120 and seven above 130. Some of these were absolute monsters. They included a 163 in the opening round and a career-high 189 against the Crows. He had just two scores below 80 all year and ended the season with an average of 120 from the final nine games.

One of the most remarkable aspects of Christian Petracca’s career has been his durability and consistent performance. He currently stands second on the list of players with 132 consecutive games played. This record highlights his physical resilience and underscores his mental toughness and commitment to maintaining peak performance levels. Petracca’s ability to remain a constant force on the field, game after game, season after season, is a rare and valuable trait, making him an indispensable asset for both the Melbourne Demons and fantasy football coaches.

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MY TAKE

The Melbourne Demons’ forward line has received a significant boost with the inclusions of Jack Billings and Shane McAdam, alongside the return to health of key players. This bolstering of the forward setup could have various implications for Christian Petracca’s role and output. A stronger forward line might lead to more scoring opportunities or a shift in Petracca’s responsibilities on the field.

One area where Petracca could unlock another level in his game is his accuracy in front of goal. He was 12th in the league for shots on goal but had a relatively low conversion rate, kicking 28 goals and 34 behinds from 87 shots, equating to a 32% accuracy. Improving his goal-kicking efficiency could significantly increase his scoring on-field and in fantasy leagues.

Petracca’s participation in centre bounces averaged 61% last season. This could increase, especially if Clayton Oliver is absent, providing Petracca more midfield time. During Oliver’s absence last year, Petracca’s centre-bounce attendance rose to over 80% in three of the first four games. His scoring potential might also increase with a focus on midfield duties, as evidenced by his averages without Clayton Oliver in the team – he went 112.6 in AFLFantasy and 124.3 in SuperCoach from 10 games.

The Demons’ early bye due to their opening-round game requires careful consideration when selecting players like Petracca, especially in balancing your team across the bye rounds. In the seven weeks leading up to Melbourne’s next bye in round 14, they face a series of teams that present favourable matchups for inside midfielders, making Petracca a strong early upgrade consideration if 2023 trends continue.

Petracca’s low level of scoring variation makes him a reliable premium player to own. However, in AFLFantasy, his infrequency of scoring above 120 points is a concern for a player priced at nearly $ 1 million. For such a high investment, he should ideally be a consistent Vice-Captain or Captain option, but his lack of ceiling games makes starting with him less appealing, though he remains a solid upgrade target. In SuperCoach, Petracca presents a different picture. His high ceiling and consistency make him a more compelling option from the start.

If you choose not to begin with him, no matter the format, he should be considered for an early inclusion in your squad.

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DRAFT DECISION

Christian Petracca emerges as a compelling choice for drafts. In SuperCoach formats, his high-scoring potential and consistency elevate him to an M1 position, making him a top-tier midfield selection. His ability to deliver substantial scores and his increased role in the Melbourne midfield positions him as a pivotal player in any SuperCoach team.

On the other hand, in AFLFantasy, while still a strong contender, he’s more suitably placed as an M2. This is due to his slightly lower frequency of hitting the highest scores compared to other elite midfielders, though his consistent scoring and durability still make him an invaluable asset. Regardless of the format, Petracca’s proven track record and role in a potentially more potent Melbourne lineup in 2024 make him a strategic and high-value pick in fantasy drafts.

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#37 Most Relevant | Clayton Oliver

In this deep dive, we unravel the complex tapestry of Clayton Oliver’s 2024 season, marked by off-field challenges and on-field brilliance. Join us as we explore how Oliver’s tumultuous offseason and undeniable talent converge, unexpectedly impacting your AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach strategies.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Clayton Oliver’s status as one of the elite midfielders in the game is unassailable. His ranking in the top 10 for contested possessions, clearances, inside 50s, and tackles is a testament to his well-rounded gameplay. These stats aren’t just numbers; they paint a picture of a player who is at the heart of the action, consistently driving his team forward and dominating in key areas of the game.

In AFLFantasy, Oliver’s prowess is striking. He averaged 113.6, with an impressive 11 scores over 100, and six of these were above 120, including a season-high of 149. This scoring feat placed him fourth in terms of average, trailing only behind the likes of Marcus Bontempelli, Tim English, and Rowan Marshall. His performance clearly indicates his consistency and ability to score heavily in critical games.

In SuperCoach, Oliver’s average was an outstanding 120.6. He notched up 10 scores over 100, seven of which were above 120, and remarkably, he scored below 98 only once throughout the year. This exceptional scoring rate placed him among the top, surpassed only by Bontempelli and English. Entering 2024, he is one of just three players in SuperCoach with an average above 120, showcasing his elite status in the competition.

Oliver’s 2023 season was marked by a notable challenge – a hamstring injury that saw him play 13 games under duress. This was the first significant injury in his otherwise robust career, where he missed just one match in six seasons. However, his return post-injury was nothing short of remarkable. He scored 126 in AFLFantasy and 128 in SuperCoach against Carlton, demonstrating his resilience and ability to bounce back effectively.

Oliver’s performance in the 2023 AFL finals series further cemented his reputation as a fantasy football powerhouse. He averaged 123 in AFLFantasy and an astonishing 139 in SuperCoach, underscoring his ability to deliver when it matters most.

Clayton Oliver has been a standout player in both AFLFantasy and SuperCoach for years. His record of three consecutive seasonal averages above 120 in SuperCoach and three seasons with 110 or higher in AFLFantasy clearly indicates his enduring excellence. His ability to score heavily and his resilience in the face of injury make him a top-tier choice in fantasy football. Oliver’s consistency, scoring ability, and overall impact on the field make him a player that every fantasy manager should consider as a cornerstone of their team in the upcoming season.

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MY TAKE

Clayton Oliver’s offseason can be aptly described as tumultuous. He was embroiled in trade rumours and internal club conflicts that, unfortunately, spilled into the public domain. Adding to this, Oliver experienced a medical episode that required hospitalization, and most recently, he left the club’s pre-Christmas training camp due to personal issues. Both the club and Oliver have requested privacy during this time, and we must respect this and avoid speculation or rumour-mongering.

If Oliver misses game time, it’s important to consider the implications for his teammates. Last season, when Oliver was sidelined, players like Tom Sparrow, Christian Petracca, and Angus Brayshaw stepped up, seeing a significant bump in midfield opportunities. This dynamic shift could again come into play, affecting the team’s on-field performance and fantasy football strategies.

The question of whether to start Clayton Oliver in your fantasy team is a complex one. Given the array of variables and challenges he’s facing, wisdom suggests that he might be better suited as an upgrade target rather than a starter. While you can start him, the uncertainties surrounding his situation make it risky.

Looking ahead at the Demons’ schedule, they play in the opening round and have an early bye in round 6. Following this, they face teams – Tigers, Cats, Blues, Eagles, Saints, Dockers, and Pies – which could provide favourable matchups for inside midfielders. This stretch of games post-bye presents an ideal opportunity to target Oliver as an upgrade. By then, there should be more clarity on his form and playing status, allowing fantasy coaches to make a more informed decision.

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DRAFT DECISION

Clayton Oliver presents a unique blend of risk and reward in your fantasy football draft. The key to drafting him lies in carefully monitoring the timing and news about his condition. While there’s a risk of limited preseason visibility, the upside is his potential to continue his impressive scoring streak of 110+ in AFLFantasy and 120+ in SuperCoach.

After the initial 4-5 draft rounds, Oliver becomes an increasingly attractive option. To balance the risk, it’s advisable to draft an additional midfielder or two early on, ensuring your team’s strength and depth. Ultimately, while drafting Oliver involves some uncertainty, his high-scoring ability and potential impact make him a worthwhile, strategic pick in the draft, especially if he’s available beyond the early rounds.

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#40 Most Relevant | Touk Miller

In this deep dive into Touk Miller’s fantasy football prospects for the upcoming season, we explore the impact of the Gold Coast Suns’ new playing style under coach Damien Hardwick and how it might influence Miller’s scoring potential. With a focus on Miller’s past performance, the Suns’ early fixtures, and strategic considerations for navigating early byes, we unravel whether Miller is a must-have for your fantasy team or a player to watch as the season unfolds.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Touk Miller is known for his exceptional skills and pivotal role in the team. As a heart and soul player for the Suns, Miller brings to the table elite endurance, a key attribute that enhances his performance on the field. His ability to sustain high-intensity efforts throughout the game makes him an invaluable asset to the Suns in gameplay and leadership.

In terms of his fantasy football performance, Miller’s 2023 season was notable, though it marked a dip compared to his previous years. In AFLFantasy, he averaged 96.1 points, which included seven scores over 100 (“tons”), with one exceeding 120. However, he also had two scores under 80, one of which was notably impacted by an injury. This injury, a lateral meniscus tear in his left knee, occurred in a game against the Roos in round 6, leading to a three-month absence from the field.

In SuperCoach, Miller’s average was slightly higher at 97.6, featuring eight tons, with two scores over 120 and one below 80, again affected by the injury game against the Roos. The 2023 season was Miller’s lowest-performing fantasy season since his breakout, contrasting with his performance from 2020 to 2022, where he consistently averaged triple figures. His peak was in 2021, where he recorded a personal best of over 120 points across both formats.

During the 2022 season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 109.8, comprising fifteen tons and nine scores over 120. They include 132, 133, 134, 140 & 147. Alongside this are three additional scores of 90+, and only once last season did he drop his scoring below 80. As a result, he ended the season with the seventh-best average in the entire format. And speaking of ending the season over the final ten games, he went at an average of 112.

For SuperCoach, he scored eighteen tons across the season. Eleven of those were above 120, and nine were above 130. His five highest scores were 153, 153, 157, 160 & 167. He had two additional scores over 90, and his scoring fell below 98 in just two matches. He ended the year with a ten-game average of 123.6 and with the fourth-highest average.

Looking ahead to 2024, Miller’s price point suggests a significant upside compared to his historical performance. His proven ability to deliver top-tier scoring output and his price make him a potentially valuable pick for fantasy managers. Miller’s resilience and capacity to bounce back from setbacks, coupled with his history of high scoring, indicate that he could be a strong contender for a rebound in fantasy scoring, offering great value for those looking for a player with the potential to outperform their price point significantly.

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MY TAKE

As we evaluate Touk Miller’s viability as a fantasy football player for your team, it’s important to contextualize his past performances and consider the evolving dynamics at the Gold Coast Suns. The standout years of 2021 and 2022, where Miller showed exceptional scoring ability, need to be viewed in light of the current changes at the club. From a game style to coach to even the players available has changed.

For example, Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson were in their AFL infancy and nowhere near the staple part of the midfield that they are now. No longer is Touk required to put the midfield unit on his back for a season. Now, he can play his part in a highly skilled and experienced midfield.

With a new coach and system under Damien Hardwick, the Suns are expected to adopt a playing style akin to the Richmond Tigers’ approach during their successful 2017-2022 period. This style emphasizes a ‘surge’ game plan, focusing on keeping the ball moving and minimizing stoppages, which could impact the scoring opportunities for midfielders like Miller who scores well from stoppages through ball winning and tackles.

There’s a common perception that teams coached by Hardwick don’t yield high fantasy scores. While this is partly true, it’s not a blanket rule. For instance, in 2017, Dustin Martin averaged 113 in AFLFantasy and 119 in SuperCoach under this system, although his scores did dip in the following years.

Another Richmond player, Dion Prestia, showed that the system isn’t necessarily a barrier to scoring well, but his injury prevented him from becoming a consistently high scorer across formats. Tim Taranto’s performance in the ten games under Hardwick in 2023 also supports this, averaging 119 in AFLFantasy and 115 in SuperCoach.

However, it’s important to note that not all midfielders in Hardwick’s system will score multi-tons consistently. The role played by each midfielder in this system can vary significantly. A case in point is Trent Cotchin, who often sacrificed his game for the team’s success.

There are parallels between Cotchin and Miller regarding leadership and playing style, raising the question of whether Miller might adopt a similar sacrificial role in the Suns’ midfield. This is something to watch closely in the preseason commentary from the club.

The Gold Coast Suns’ fixture in the opening round against Richmond offers a unique opportunity for fantasy managers. This matchup will provide valuable insights into the Suns’ new system and structure under coach Damien Hardwick before the round one lockout. This “free look” is crucial for assessing how Touk Miller fits into the Suns’ midfield and how the team’s playing style might affect his scoring potential.

Following the opening round, the Suns will face Adelaide and Western Bulldogs before entering an early bye in round three alongside GWS Giants. This early bye presents a strategic consideration for fantasy team structure.

Coaches need to balance their teams across all lines, ensuring they have the right mix of players to navigate through these early byes while maximizing scoring during the best 18 rounds. With popular players like Sam Walsh, Kiddy Coleman, and Zac Williams from Carlton and Brisbane also missing the week before the Suns’ bye, team balance becomes even more critical.

The preseason period is crucial for watching the Suns closely. While it seems unlikely that Miller’s scoring will fall below his high 90s price point, there’s still a question of whether he can return to his 120+ scoring form. This uncertainty makes Miller a key player to monitor.

Touk Miller should be on every fantasy coaches watchlist. Key areas to focus on include the Suns’ game style under Hardwick, the makeup of their midfield, and how Miller’s scores and roles develop from the opening round. Additionally, you should consider how other teams structure their squads to handle the early bye rounds.

This analysis will inform whether starting with Miller is a wise choice or if he should be considered as a potential inclusion as the season progresses. The decision will hinge on a balanced evaluation of Miller’s role in the Suns’ system, his performance in the preseason, and the overall team structure strategy to navigate the bye rounds.

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DRAFT DECISION

In the upcoming fantasy football drafts, Touk Miller is a name that carries considerable weight, especially considering his stellar 2021 season, where he averaged over 120 points. Given this impressive history and his established reputation, it’s reasonable to expect Miller to be highly sought after in drafts, likely going off the board as an M2 (second midfielder) in many leagues. His standout performance in 2021, where he showcased top-tier scoring potential, is a significant factor that will likely influence many drafters to leap for his name early.

However, some considerations might make Miller more ideally suited for an M3 (third midfielder) position in fantasy teams. One such factor is the uncertainty surrounding the midfield mix and playing style of the Gold Coast Suns. Changes in team dynamics, strategy, and Miller’s specific role within the midfield can impact his scoring potential. These unknowns add a layer of risk to selecting him as an M2, where expectations for consistently high performance are typically greater.

Drafting Miller as an M3 would allow fantasy coaches to capitalize on his potential upside while mitigating some risks associated with the Suns’ evolving midfield scenario. However, given Miller’s past performances and name recognition, opting for this strategy might mean missing out on him in many leagues. As other coaches may be willing to take him earlier as an M2, based on his proven ability to deliver high scores, Miller is likely to be picked before reaching the M3 draft rounds.

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#41 Most Relevant | Luke Davies-Uniacke

Luke Davies-Uniacke, the North Melbourne midfield general, is poised to take over the SuperCoach and AFLFantasy landscape this year. Discover why he’s the future fantasy king you can’t afford to overlook in 2024.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Luke Davies-Uniacke has emerged as a prominent figure in the AFL, especially for the North Melbourne Football Club. Drafted as the fourth pick in 2017, he was North Melbourne’s first top-five pick since 2009. Despite early career injuries, Davies-Uniacke’s strengths in contest situations and agility have established him as a key midfielder for the club.

His breakout year was in 2022, when he showcased exceptional skills around stoppages and an ability to navigate through traffic, making him a standout player. This was evident in a game against Collingwood, where he achieved 33 disposals, 14 inside 50s, 12 clearances, 11 tackles, and eight score involvements, highlighting his significant contribution to the team. His performances earned him second place in the Syd Barker Medal voting and several other awards in 2022, indicating his vital role at North Melbourne.

Davies-Uniacke’s growth as a player has been remarkable, especially from the middle of 2022, when he was among the best midfielders in the competition. His performance metrics, such as disposals, contested possessions, and clearances, ranked him high in the league. His strong physicality and effective ball-handling skills have been particularly noteworthy, contributing significantly to his team’s performance even during challenging times.

This evolution in his gameplay, overcoming initial form and fitness challenges, demonstrates his importance to North Melbourne and fantasy league enthusiasts who recognize his potential to score high points.

LDU’s performance in the 2023 AFL season underscores his significant fantasy football pedigree, as reflected in his AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach statistics. In AFL Fantasy, he played 14 games, with a seasonal average of 97.4 points. This impressive performance included seven scores of 100 or more (“tons”) and four instances where he scored 120 or more. Particularly notable was his form in the last six games, where he averaged 112.1 points, culminating in a rank of 27th overall for average scoring in the league.

In SuperCoach, Davies-Uniacke’s yearly average was even more impressive at 113.6 points. His consistency and high-scoring ability were evident, with nine tons, seven scores over 120 points, and two exceptional performances where he scored over 140 points. His form peaked in the last six games of the season, where he maintained an average of 126.6 points. This performance ranked him 11th overall in average score, placing him ahead of renowned players like Guldren, Green, Serong, Neale, and Brayshaw.

His ability to score across various columns makes Davies-Uniacke an invaluable player in fantasy football. This versatility means that even when he is targeted by opponents (such as through tagging), he can contribute in multiple areas, thus maintaining his scoring potential. He consistently delivers in categories like marks, kicks, handballs, and tackles.

This ability to impact both inside and outside the contest, and in both contested and uncontested situations, highlights his well-rounded skill set. Such a diverse range of scoring avenues provides a high scoring ceiling and ensures a certain level of scoring reliability, making him a highly sought-after player in fantasy football leagues.

In 2022, LDU averaged 25 touches a game, going at an efficiency of 77%. He ranked eleventh in the league for centre clearances and fourteenth for inside 50s. From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he finished the season with eleven tons, four of them over 120, including a 129 & his career-high 145 against the Magpies. He ended the season with an average of 93.

Over in SuperCoach, he scored ten tons; five were over 120, including 138, 141 & 149. He also had five additional scores between 92-97. He ended the season with an average of 101.2.

However, over a fourteen-game stretch between rounds 9-23, we got glimpses of what we saw also throughout 2023. In this stretch of games, he averaged 103.35 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and scored ten tons. In SuperCoach, he averaged 110.5, scoring nine tons and only going under 88 once.

Davies-Uniacke’s fantasy football pedigree is a testament to his overall football skills and importance to his team and fantasy football coaches. His ability to contribute significantly in various facets of the game makes him a valuable asset in any fantasy football team and format.

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MY TAKE

Luke Davies-Uniacke’s role in the North Melbourne midfield is a key factor in his AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach appeal. He is a quintessential Centre Bounce Attendance (CBA) midfielder, often referred to as the “big dog” in his team, allowed to hunt the ball freely. This role provides him with consistent opportunities to score points in fantasy leagues. There’s a trend in AFL where top midfielders from underperforming teams can still dominate in fantasy scoring.

This can be contrasted most recently with the performance of players like Rory Laird from Adelaide during the 2021-2022 seasons, who, despite being in a team that did not perform at the top level, managed to put up impressive fantasy numbers. In those two seasons, he averaged 111 & 120 in AFLFantasy and 116 & 127 in SuperCoach.

However, the biggest concern with Davies-Uniacke is his injury history, which poses a risk for fantasy managers. Over the past five years, his games played per season were 14, 21, 20, and 9, indicating a pattern of missing several games each season. Notable injuries just in 2023 alone include:

  • A late withdrawal in Round 3 due to calf tightness.
  • He had a heel injury in Round 7, so he wasn’t named to the team.
  • He had a hamstring injury in Round 9 that sidelined him until Round 16.

He also missed the final two games of the year. This pattern suggests a level of risk for fantasy coaches, as they might need to hold a trade to deal with an injury-forced trade involving Davies-Uniacke.

A player’s injury history must always be factored in, but it should never be the sole reason you choose not to select a player. If anything, a player’s injury history is a reason to consider him in your starting squad and not as an upgrade target.

The reason is that if you start with them, you can bank all the scores they deliver. And with every passing game, the likelihood of injury will only increase. However, suppose you trade into an injury ‘risk’. In that case, you run the gauntlet of not just missing his good scores that attracted you to make them an upgrade, but rather your likelihood of trading into that injury is higher with every game past.

Starting these ‘injury-prone’ players is the best way to offset the risk. If an injury does occur, you have banked every good score available but also spent just one trade, not multiple, on removing him from your side. That doesn’t mean you can’t trade into him, but rather saying that if his injury history scares you now, it should also be a factor in the season.

While Luke does have an injury past that deep and long across all seasons of his AFL and even junior career, we’ve seen over time that injury history, with some luck, can change quickly. Look at Brad Crouch in his early few seasons at the Crows. The man couldn’t crack a 20-game year if he tried; he missed multiple seasons without AFL. And then, seemingly overnight, he’s played 20+ matches in four of the last five seasons. Suspensions have been the reason for missing games lately, not injury.

Sometimes, you’re injury-prone, and then you’re not. If he gets lucky with his body, he’s got all the tools to boom to become not just a topline premium midfielder, but the top scoring options in his line aren’t outside the realms of possibility.

If Luke Davies-Uniacke can maintain a good bill of health, his potential in AFLFantasy and SuperCoach is immense. Given his role as a primary midfielder in a team that allows him to hunt the ball consistently, Davies-Uniacke can average over 110 points in AFLFantasy and 120 in SuperCoach. The key concern, however, is about something other than his scoring ability, which has already proven high. The primary consideration for fantasy coaches is his injury history and the associated risk this brings.

The strategy for including Davies-Uniacke in a fantasy team largely depends on an individual manager’s risk appetite. Generally, starting with an injury-prone player is often seen as more strategic rather than trading them in later, as this allows for greater flexibility in managing potential injuries. Starting with Davies-Uniacke in your team and having a backup plan in case of his absence could be more manageable than trying to trade him in later, only to face his potential injury setbacks.

The only significant reason to avoid selecting Davies-Uniacke is the narrative around his injuries. Apart from that, all signs point to him being a formidable force in fantasy football, potentially even rising to be one of the top midfielders in the game. His talent and scoring ability are not in question; it’s his ability to stay fit and healthy throughout the season that fantasy coaches need to weigh carefully.

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DRAFT DECISION

When drafting for AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach, Luke Davies-Uniacke’s positioning largely depends on the format of your draft and your risk tolerance as a coach. Based on his 2023 averages, he would be a strong consideration for an M3 (third midfielder) in AFL Fantasy and an M2 (second midfielder) in SuperCoach. However, given his injury history, it’s prudent to approach his selection cautiously.

For AFL Fantasy, where he averaged around 97.4 in 2023, placing him as an M3 seems appropriate. This accounts for his high-scoring potential while balancing the risk associated with his injury history. In SuperCoach, his higher average of 113.6 points makes him a more attractive option, potentially as an M2. His scoring ceiling is higher in SuperCoach, reflecting his impact in various statistical categories.

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#43 Most Relevant | Tim Taranto

In the realm of AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach, few players have commanded attention quite like Tim Taranto. With his remarkable ability to accumulate points and influence games, Taranto has established himself as a key figure in fantasy football lineups. This article delves into the unique qualities that make Taranto a fantasy football powerhouse, exploring his journey through AFLFantasy, DreamTYeam and SuperCoach and why he’s a top pick for coaches aiming for victory.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Tim Taranto’s journey in the AFL has been remarkable, especially from the perspective of AFLFantasy and SuperCoach. His move from the GWS Giants to Richmond marked a significant turning point in his career, where he not only thrived but also dominated the field, earning the prestigious Best and Fairest award at Richmond.

Regarding statistics, Taranto’s performance has been nothing short of impressive. His ability to impact the game in multiple facets is evident in his rankings: He ranked 9th in Total Stoppage Clearances, a key indicator of his ability to win the ball in contested situations.

His defensive prowess is highlighted by his ranking of 9th in Total Tackles. He also stood 10th in Total Clearances, showcasing his effectiveness in moving the ball out of contested situations.

Regarding disposals, he was ranked 10th, indicating his significant involvement in the game. His rank of 14th in Total Contested Possessions and Total Handballs demonstrates his capacity to win the ball under pressure and his role in the distribution of the ball. Ranking 16th in Total Centre Clearances further cements his importance in critical phases of the game.

From an AFLFantasy perspective, Taranto’s performance has been particularly noteworthy. He was ranked 8th by averages, surpassing prominent players like Tom Green, Andrew Brayshaw, Rory Laird, and Caleb Serong. 

In terms of total points, he was ranked 6th, trailing only behind players such as Marcus Bontempelli, Tim English, Rowan Marshall, Jordan Dawson, and Errol Gulden. Last year, he averaged 112.3, scored 17 tons, nine over 120 and an incredible run of 14 consecutive tons to start the season.

In SuperCoach, Taranto also made a significant impact: He was ranked 28th by average overall and 22nd among all midfielders. He achieved the 16th rank for total points, underscoring his consistent scoring ability. He averaged 106.6, 13 tons, and five over 120.

Whether value is embedded in selecting Tim Taranto for your AFLFantasy or SuperCoach team is nuanced. To properly assess Taranto’s value, one must consider how one interprets his scores and the context within which they were achieved. The one you assign the weighting to will ultimately decide whether you believe there is a significant scoring upside or not to select him.

Is the pre-bye scoring the real Taranto? Or is what he delivered after the bye a sign of things to come? Does Jacob Hopper impact the same under a new coaching regime? His scoring changed based on who was coaching and his game style.

When evaluating Taranto’s potential impact, it’s important not to dwell too deeply on his scoring days at GWS for two reasons. The first reason is obvious: he’s no longer with GWS, and his current role and environment at Richmond are significantly different. The second reason is more subtle but equally important.

At GWS, Taranto’s scores were often viewed as an indicator of what he could achieve if given a more prominent role. Now that he’s been in that role at Richmond and has excelled in it, those GWS scores are less relevant for future projections.

At Richmond, Taranto has not only been given the role he was long speculated to excel in, but he has also thrived in it, as evidenced by his impressive statistical rankings and Best and Fairest award. His performance has answered questions about his potential and set a new benchmark for what to expect from him. If you haven’t at least considered his scoring power for you, then you’re missing a trick this preseason.

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MY TAKE

The arrival of Adam Yze as the new coach of Richmond Tigers brings with it intriguing possibilities for the team’s playing style, particularly in the midfield. Given Yze’s background as an assistant coach at Melbourne, where he was notably responsible for strategy, there’s a strong likelihood that he might import some elements of Melbourne’s playing style to the Tigers.

At Melbourne, Yze was instrumental in developing a midfield strategy that was both dynamic and effective, contributing to the team’s recent success. This Melbourne midfield DNA is characterized by strong stoppage work, aggressive ball movement, and a heavy focus on contested possessions.

These elements were pivotal in the impressive performance of players like Clayton Oliver, who in the last three years has averaged 108, 112, and 133 in AFLFantasy and 123, 127, and 120 in SuperCoach.

The key question for Richmond and Tim Taranto, in particular, is whether Yze’s coaching will enable Taranto to emulate the kind of role Clayton Oliver played at Melbourne. With his proven ability in clearances, tackles, and contested possessions, Taranto seems well-suited to thrive in a midfield system similar to Melbourne’s.

Should Yze bring over this midfield DNA to Richmond, it could unlock even more potential in Taranto. His statistics already place him among the elite midfielders in the competition, and under Yze’s system, he might elevate his game further. The possibility of Taranto becoming the ‘Oliver’ in this new Tigers style is an exciting prospect.

This would involve Taranto taking on a more central role in the midfield, where his ability to win the ball and drive it forward could be maximized.

However, it’s important to note that while the coaching style and strategy can significantly influence a player’s role and performance, the actual impact will depend on how well the team adapts to the new system and how Taranto’s skills are utilized within that framework.

The potential reshaping of Richmond Tigers’ midfield under new coach Adam Yze presents several uncertainties and exciting prospects. One of the critical questions is Tim Taranto’s role. While Taranto is an undeniable inside bull and a key player, his high clanger rate might concern a coaching regime focusing on cleaner ball use.

However, it seems unlikely that he would move out of the midfield completely. Should that happen, though, his potential to gain MID/FWD DPP status in fantasy leagues could make him an even more attractive option.

The state of the Tigers’ midfield also hinges on whether Dustin Martin can rediscover his best form. Between 2017 and 2020, Martin was arguably the AFL’s most influential player. A return to this form would significantly impact the dynamics and effectiveness of the midfield.

Another factor is how Yze views players like Shai Bolton and Jack Graham. Bolton’s speed and class, combined with Graham’s defensive power and size, offer different dimensions to the midfield. Their roles under Yze’s system could shape the team’s overall strategy.

Dion Prestia’s contribution cannot be overlooked either. A well-rounded midfielder, his performance will be crucial, especially if he can steer clear of injuries. Jacob Hopper, another addition to the team, brings his expertise as an inside specialist and clearance beast, potentially adding more depth and strength to the midfield.

The development of the younger players, like Thomson Dow, is another aspect to watch. He, alongside other emerging talents, could play a more significant role, depending on how Yze balances experience with youth.

The Richmond Tigers’ start to the year offers a unique perspective for fantasy football enthusiasts, especially in assessing players like Tim Taranto. The Tigers face the Suns in the opening round, and while the points from this game don’t count towards fantasy leagues, it provides a critical opportunity to observe player roles before the round one lockout begins. This game could be a crucial indicator of how Taranto and others fit into the team’s strategy under Adam Yze.

Following this, the Tigers have a challenging lineup of matches against the Blues, Port, Swans, Saints, and Eagles. These games offer a mix of opponents and playing styles, testing the Tigers’ midfield and potentially impacting Taranto’s role and output.

Navigating the opening round of the AFL season presents a new experience for fantasy football this year. One significant aspect is managing the bye rounds between rounds 2-6. Notably, Richmond has its bye in round 6 alongside the Swans. This scheduling nuance adds an extra layer of strategy to fantasy football, as players from these teams will not score points in their bye round.

The question of whether to start premium players like Taranto in the opening squad is complex. While the common thought might lean towards ‘no’, considering the bye rounds, there are strategies to counter this. The accompanying podcast/video episode to this article, where Rids discusses the thought process behind potentially including such players from the start, offers valuable insights.

In summary, Tim Taranto should be on your fantasy football watchlist at the very least. As the season progresses, the clarity regarding his role under Yze, the Tigers’ performance, and how they adapt to the new strategies will answer many questions. Each piece of information that unfolds will assist fantasy coaches in deciding whether to elevate Taranto in their priority order or to consider other options. Keeping a close eye on the Tigers’ early games, especially their opening round against the Suns, will be key to making informed decisions for your fantasy team.

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DRAFT DECISION

When drafting Tim Taranto in AFLFantasy leagues, considering your strategy to prioritize a top-end ruck option and fade forwards, Taranto can be a solid choice as an M1 (first midfielder pick), potentially in the second round. His strong performance at Richmond, especially in terms of disposals, clearances, and contested possessions, makes him a valuable asset in AFLFantasy, where midfielders with high ball-winning capabilities are particularly crucial.

For SuperCoach leagues, Taranto fits more as an M3 (third midfielder pick) option. Given his ranking and performance in SuperCoach points, coupled with your strategy of emphasizing ruck and other positions, Taranto can provide good value in the midfield without needing to be your top or second pick. His all-around abilities and role in the Tigers’ midfield under coach Adam Yze suggest he could be a consistent scorer, making him a strategic pick for your SuperCoach midfield.

Remember, in both leagues, the key is balancing your team composition while ensuring you secure players who can deliver consistent, high scores each round. With Taranto, you get a player who has shown the capability to score well and could potentially improve further, making him a valuable addition to your midfield.

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#44 Most Relevant | Elijah Tsatas

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Essendon Football Club made a significant move in their 2022 draft by selecting Elijah Tsatas, a player highly regarded in his junior career. Tsatas, known for his attacking style in the midfield, has demonstrated an impressive ability to gather the ball both inside and outside the midfield. His speed and intelligence on the field made him one of the most coveted midfielders in his draft class.

Unfortunately, Tsatas faced a setback early in the season due to a knee injury that occurred in January and required surgery. This delay meant that his debut in the season was postponed, but once he returned, his performance in the VFL was nothing short of impressive. He averaged 25 disposals, 3.5 marks, and 4.2 tackles per game in his seven games at this level. His ability to consistently deliver multiple 30+ disposal games and achieve fantasy 100s, even while on managed game time, is a testament to his skills and adaptability.

These performances in the VFL were crucial, as they confirmed what was observed at the under-18 level – Tsatas’s capabilities were indeed translating well against more seasoned players. His transition from junior football to playing against men was seamless, indicating a promising future ahead in his AFL career.

Tsatas’s introduction to the AFL level came with four games, where his fantasy football scores were promising for a newcomer. In AFLFantasy, he averaged 64.2, with individual scores of 65, 86, 43, and 63. In SuperCoach, he averaged 55, scoring 41, 71, 53, and 49. While these numbers show room for growth, they are certainly encouraging for a player in his initial AFL outings given his lack of preseason and limited opportunities in the midfield.

A particular highlight of Tsatas’s season was his performance against the North Melbourne Kangaroos. In this game, his stat line was impressive: 22 possessions (7 contested, 15 uncontested), a disposal efficiency of 69%, 7 score involvements including a goal, 4 marks, 4 clearances, 3 tackles, 2 inside 50s, and 1 rebound 50. This game showcased Tsatas’s potential and ability to impact at the AFL level, indicating that he is a player to watch in the future.

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MY TAKE

The fantasy football landscape in 2024 calls for a strategic shift from the previous year’s trend of starting with 4-5 premium forwards. This season opens up the possibility of a different approach, where investing heavily in the top forward position may not be necessary. Instead, there’s a viable strategy to conserve salary cap space by not opting for players averaging over 90 in this position. This shift in strategy could be key to assembling a well-balanced and effective fantasy team.

Elijah Tsatas’ relevance in this context hinges on his potential role within the Essendon midfield. Last year, Essendon’s centre bounce attendances (CBA) were dominated by Darcy Parish at 81%, Zach Merrett at 74%, Will Setterfield at 62%, and Dylan Shiel at 46%. However, players like Jack Stringer, Ben Hobbs, Archie Perkins, Jye Caldwell, and Elijah Tsatas also participated in CBAs, indicating a dynamic and versatile midfield lineup.

To gauge Tsatas’ potential role in the upcoming season, preseason press conferences, practice matches, and early-season games will be crucial. These will provide valuable insights into the team’s midfield structure and how Tsatas fits into it. If Tsatas is involved in more than 40% of CBAs, his scoring potential could make him a significant asset for fantasy teams and our starting squad structures.

It’s important to note that Tsatas doesn’t need to score at a premium level in his second season to be valuable. His pricing is appealing: less than $50,000 more than Harley Reid in SuperCoach and just over $150K in AFLFantasy & DreamTeam. Given the current scarcity of reliable top-end forward premiums, Tsatas presents as excellent value and could be a strategic pick for the F3 or F4 slot in fantasy lineups.

While Tsatas seems like a solid option to consider, his midfield role and scoring of others in his price range during in the opening round will be the ultimate determinants of his necessity in your team. The success or failure of other mid-priced players in their respective opening rounds could also influence Tsatas’ ownership and viability as a fantasy option.

Elijah Tsatas should definitely be on the watchlist of fantasy football coaches. His role in Essendon’s midfield, pricing advantage, and potential scoring ability make him an intriguing option in the forward line, especially considering the current fantasy football landscape and strategy for the 2024 season.

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DRAFT DECISION

Have you picked up on this theme in the 50 most relevant yet? Treat 2024 differently, including how you approach the year’s drafting strategies. It’s the early days of the preseason. Still, I’m leaning heavily towards attacking the middle-late parts of the draft with a bunch of potential high-end upside forwards who require an element or two to go their way before scoring enough to be fieldable.

I’ve got Elijah Tsatas in that range and will happily take him. It’s just a matter of time before he becomes a high-end draft scorer; we’ll wait and see whether it’s this year or not.

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#45 Most Relevant | Jy Simpkin

Welcome back to our ’50 Most Relevant’ SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam Players Countdown series! We unveil the captivating fantasy potential of Jy Simpkin, the midfield maestro from the North Melbourne Kangaroos. Discover the hidden gems that could make Simpkin a fantasy sensation for you in 2024.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Jy Simpkin’s impact at North Melbourne extends far beyond his on-field performances. His deep commitment to the club is evident from his decision to extend his contract until 2029, showcasing a vision for the team’s future success and growth. Simpkin’s role transcends the boundaries of gameplay; he plays an integral part in nurturing young talent and offering guidance and leadership to emerging players.

His exceptional skill and leadership have not gone unnoticed, as evidenced by multiple accolades, including his back-to-back wins of the prestigious Syd Barker Medal in 2021 and 2022 and a runner-up position in 2020. Simpkin’s contributions are pivotal in the midfield, highlighted by his high average in disposals per game and clearances, demonstrating his ability to control the ball in contested situations and his dominance in stoppages.

The 2023 season saw Simpkin play 18 games, a testament to his consistency and resilience despite facing a string of injuries. In AFL Fantasy, he averaged 75.7 points, reaching or exceeding 100 points in four instances. His SuperCoach average was slightly higher at 79.3, including three scores above 100. However, considering that his season was marred by three injury-affected games, including two concussions and a finger injury, is crucial. Excluding these games, his performance averages in both leagues show a notable increase: 88.4 in SuperCoach and 85.7 in AFL Fantasy, highlighting his potential and efficiency as a player.

Despite the setbacks due to injuries, Simpkin’s track record over the past seasons indicates a strong resilience, having missed only one match in the three previous seasons. His 2022 season further cements his status as a formidable player. In AFL Fantasy, he scored an impressive average of 95.5 points per game, including ten scores of 100 or more, and an exceptional average of 102.8 in the last ten games. Similarly, in SuperCoach, he averaged 85.5, with eight scores over 100 and an average of 97.7 in the last ten games.

His historical performance suggests he offers a significant return of around 25 points per game over the expected value for his price. This efficiency and reliability make him a valuable asset for fantasy football coaches looking to maximize value in their midfield selections this season.

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MY TAKE

One key focus for the upcoming preseason is understanding the roles and team structure at North Melbourne, particularly given the challenges faced in 2023. Alastair Clarkson, the senior coach, missed much of his first season, which calls for a careful assessment of the team’s strategies and player roles moving forward. This doesn’t negate last year’s performances but suggests a cautious approach to interpreting them due to Clarkson’s limited involvement.

A consensus exists within the fantasy community regarding Luke Davies-Uniacke’s prominence in North Melbourne’s midfield, closely followed by the talented George Wardlaw. Wardlaw is known for his unique blend of strength, clearance capability, and tackling pressure in contests. However, the midfield dynamics still need to be explored and open to speculation beyond these two.

The central question is who will occupy the third to fifth rotations in centre bounces. Will the 2020 draftees, Will Phillips and Tom Powell, be given more consistent opportunities, given their sporadic yet promising performances? Tarryn Thomas, known for his excitement and explosiveness, has yet to capitalize on his opportunities fully. Colby Mckercher, a likely popular cash cow, also questions whether the Roos will integrate him as an inside midfielder.

Often overlooked is Jy Simpkin, the club captain, who has consistently been a key player in the midfield. From 2020 to 2023, he has attended a significant percentage of North Melbourne’s centre bounces. Last year, only Davies-Uniacke attended more centre bounces than Simpkin among North Melbourne midfielders.

While there’s a possibility that North Melbourne might increase responsibilities for younger midfielders, leading to Simpkin potentially moving back to the half-forward line, there’s also a strong argument for relying on Simpkin’s experience in the midfield as the team continues to develop. This uncertainty intrigues fantasy football, as hypotheses are tested and validated only as the preseason progresses.

In fantasy football, Jy Simpkin’s historical average score range of 90-95 points certainly holds value. Still, it prompts a critical question: is this enough, especially considering he’s priced in the mid to high 70s? To capitalize on his selection, Simpkin ideally needs to hit the 100+ mark. However, achieving a mid-90s average would still render him a profitable choice. This performance level would ensure a significant return on investment, making him a worthwhile pick for your team.

When evaluating whether Simpkin is the best option in his price range, it’s essential to consider not just midfielders but players across all lines. The key is to assess whether other players in a similar price bracket might offer a higher output. This comparison is crucial in maximizing the efficiency of your selections and ensuring the best possible team composition. It’s not just Simpkin vs all midfield mid-pricers; it’s the midprice structure available in all lines. Don’t get stuck with only thinking linearly.

Another aspect to consider is the flexibility that comes with selecting Simpkin. He’s not priced at a point where you’re locked into the decision. This flexibility allows for strategic moves – whether upgrading, downgrading, or switching to another mid-priced player delivering better results. This ability to adapt and pivot based on performance and trends is essential to maintaining a successful strategy.

Simpkin’s involvement in games during the early bye rounds of Best 18 is also a significant factor. His participation during these rounds can be a strategic advantage, maximizing cash generation and scoring options. This aspect of his selection adds another layer of value, contributing to both short-term gains and long-term team building.

While there are compelling arguments regarding Simpkin’s selection, his potential for high scoring and flexibility make him a candidate for your SuperCoach, AFLFantasy, and DreamTeam watchlists. His performance, especially considering his price point, positions him as a player who could offer our teams significant returns and strategic advantages this season.

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DRAFT DECISION

One of the biggest differences in draft strategies from 2023 to 2024 is the lack of desire to spend significant early draft capital on forwards. The subsequent result means plenty of coaches might walk into the draft day with the mindset of heavily drafting in the midfield with their first dozen picks before looking elsewhere.
This impacts Jy Simpkin because his drafting range (in terms of the round he typically goes) will be very draft-specific. He offers the potential of pushing a triple-figure average and potentially becoming your M4, but a more common selection spot will be him as an M5-M6.

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#48 Most Relevant | Cam Guthrie

A big buzzword of every fantasy football preseason is ‘value.’ Cam Guthrie has the historical backing to give coaches plenty of score upside and deliver fantastic value. While many won’t be talking about him yet, he will be one of the most relevant players in 2024.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

After Geelong’s breakthrough Premiership with the lovingly dubbed ‘retirement home’ list in 2022, the football club fell immediately in 2023. The primary contributing factor was injuries to multiple key players which meant before schedule the next generation of Cats started taking some more central figures in the side. The result was the club’s worst ladder position since 2003. Cameron Guthrie’s season probably best reflects that of Geelong’s fortunes.

His season hit its first hurdle in round six, where he was subbed out of the Grand Final rematch against the Swans, complaining of a toe injury. After surgery in June, the club was confident he’d be able to play late in the season; however, after an impressive return via the VFL in mid-August, the club chose to put him on ice for the final few weeks of the season.

Before his season-ending injury, Cam still managed to put up his season-high and only AFL Fantasy/DreamTeam ton of the year with 111. He also posted two additional scores over 90 on the way to a season-ending average of 86.8. Over in SuperCoach, it’s a very similar stat line: one ton, two additional scores of 90+ and an average of 83.6.

Cam’s scoring potential is on full display in the two prior seasons. During the 2022 season, he scored ten tons across the formats, three over 120 and averaged 95.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 99.2 in SuperCoach. In 2021, he averaged 109.9 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, posting sixteen tons, four over 120 and just one score under 80. Meanwhile, for SuperCoach, he averaged 113.2, scored fifteen tons, eight over 120, and fell under 80 in two matches.

He’s priced at an average of 84 in AFLFantasy, 75 in SuperCoach & 78 in DreamTeam. Depending on the format, his potential 25-40 pints per game is based on his 2024 price and his career-high year of 2021.

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MY TAKE

When considering if Cam Guthrie is the right player for your starting squad, you need to consider four primary considerations for you to process before either selecting him in your starting squad or fading your interest. The first is his role in the Cats midfield; the second is Geelong’s opening fixtures; and lastly, there is the overall structural importance of midprice players for fantasy in 2024.

The Geelong Football Club are in an interesting position. Last year, they had the most players of the AFL club attend a centre bounce. Thirty players (including rucks) went through there. Do they still allow some older crew to lead the midfield pack? Or do they phase them out in favour of the younger crew? Cam Guthrie (31), Patrick Dangerfield (33), Tom Atkins (28), Jack Bowes (25) and new mature-age recruit Shaun Mannagh (26) are all over 25. Then there’s the young brigade 22 under Tanner Bruhn, Mitch Knevitt, Max Holmes, Jhye Clark & George Stevens.

Arguably, there’s not just a role but a need for him. That role is as a midfielder present at centre bounce, not just a wingman who gets his hands on it at stoppages. In 2023, he averaged 58% attendance at CBA; in 2022, it was 65%, and in 2021, it was 68%.

How heavy do Geelong lean into this rebuild? They still have a powerful forward line with Tom Hawkins, Jeremy Cameron, Tyson Stengle and Oli Henry. Any backline with Tom Stewart and Sam DeKoning will be hard to score on. But are the Cats prepared to ‘waste‘ some legend’s final years and let the next generation take the wheel? Thankfully, as the preseason evolves, we’ll get great insight into how Geelong will function as a midfield core this year.

Whenever you start a midprice/breakout player, you want to be rewarded with a favourable role and a fixture that could allow for that scoring upside. Geelong has that fixture, taking on many more favourable scoring matchups using 2023 data. Here’s who they play over the opening six weeks of the season:

  • Round One | St Kilda (GMHBA)
  •  Round Two | Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
  •  Round Three | Hawthorn (MCG)
  •  Round Four | Western Bulldogs (Adelaide Oval)
  •  Round Five | North Melbourne (GMHBA)
  •  Round Six | Brisbane (Gabba)

Do we need players priced in this range in 2024? Historically, we’d be looking at players in this range with this scoring pedigree of Guthrie. He’s priced at an average of 84 in AFLFantasy, 75 in SuperCoach & 78 in DreamTeam. That’s a potentially strong output upside. However, the games are different in 2024, with four of the first six weeks scoring a best 18. Because of this, the conversation around our team structures will be of significant interest and difference this preseason.

How should we structure our sides this year? Is a more ‘traditional’ approach of guns and rookies the best play? Should we max out the scores on premiums and maximise the best cash generation from more rookies? Or do we still need some players in this middle range that can score like a premium but do some with some financial upside both in dollars saved and in money generated?

Ultimately, if you do jump onto Guthrie, you’ve got three core outcomes that can work out for you. Firstly, you see him get that midfield role in the preseason and start with him. He returns to his 100+ average and, in doing so, nets you that twenty points per game of value, gets you a season-long midfield premium, and ensures you’ve got a flying start to round out your squad.

Option Two: he doesn’t quite live up to the forecasted scoring, but in doing so, he becomes a trade asset that you move early into the season. He can then be moved with a single trade into the guy having a flying start. For example, last year, Will Setterfield was the fast money many delivering bumper scoring at a discounted range. With an asset player like Guthrie, you’re doubling down on the possibilities without damaging any structural integrity in other lines.

And lastly, and potentially a new way of playing the game with these early byes/ best 18 early fixture weeks is using Cam Guthrie as an in-season runner trade. How coaches approach the variable of the opening round will no doubt be a strategic conversation that fills up plenty of processing time from now until early March. With all formats confirming that while the format will only ‘officially’ start in round one, the player’s price movement will be impacted by what a player scores in the opening round. In essence, you’ll get two price movements for the price of one.

This creates a strategy loophole that bold coaches can potentially exploit. We’ll be given a ‘free hit’ to view a player’s performance, role and fantasy scores and get a small indicator of what we might see unfold before the formats ‘officially’ commence and lockouts/trades start to become activated. A player like Josh Kelly, given his scoring ceiling history over his career, is the perfect type of person to consider early on, particularly in AFLFantasy, where you’re often only using early trades as correctional movements.

He’s also got a strong recent scoring history against Collingwood, who the Giants face in the opening round. His last three scores against the Magpies, including the Giants 2023 preliminary finals loss, are 106, 113 & 116 in AFLFantasy and 110, 116 & 115 in SuperCoach. GWS then take on North Melbourne & West Coast in the following two rounds. Both are amongst the easiest teams to score against using 2023 data. If Kelly comes out of the gate firing, you could see a significant boost in cash generation and a player who’s a legitimate VC option.

It’s here you could flip Kelly, take the cash he’s generated, and turn him into Guthrie just before the Cats fixture opens up to be equally as fantasy-friendly between rounds four and six. The challenge with starting with a strategic play like this is you’re banking a trade with no guarantee you’ll be able to take the offramp. All it will take is some unplanned variables of multiple injuries/suspensions, and suddenly, your plans hit a frustrating stall.

The beauty of the preseason is you need to spend it not married to a strategy or a structure but to use it to test and trial multiple approaches. The outcomes of the opening round, let alone the preseason matches, will significantly affect how your team looks heading into the season’s first round. For now, place Cam on your watchlist. If his midfield role unfolds the way I forecast, he’s someone to consider this preseason.

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DRAFT DECISION

The summation of Cam Guthrie’s last three seasons is key to where we should rank him. The last three years of averages (2021-2023) rolled up is 97.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 98.7 in SuperCoach. That’d be a great outcome if he could deliver that level of scoring output.

Based on a roll-up average, that’d place him just outside the top thirty midfielders using 2023 data. The potential positive is you should be able to target him with your M5 selection, potentially even M6, with the upside of being an M2 if he can return to his 2021 scoring era. More realistic is you get M4 returns on a M5 pick.

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