Tag: Brodie Smith

What To Do With James Sicily?

Sunday evening, it was the news a significant portion of the fantasy football community didn’t want to hear. Hawthorn star James Sicily has injured his knee and will likely not be seen for the remainder of the season, if not longer. The Hawks have since confirmed the injury has resulted in an ACL meaning the club will be without their star defender for the remainder of 2020 and most of 2021. Regardless of the fantasy football format, he is now a forced trade.

Let’s take a look at some of the best potential trade targets in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam for James Sicily.

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Ownership: 26%

It’s easy to say; however, hindsight now says you’ve should have traded him two weeks ago when he was priced over $600,000 as Kane suggested on a recent podcast. However, if your one of the 26% there that still own him is no benefit on thinking about moves you could have made. Now it’s time to look forward as to the best replacement targets.

It’ll cost you cash to get them, but the prominent two premiums defenders that have had their bye are Jake Lloyd and Nic Haynes. The later will be even cheaper in a few weeks due to his 67 last week.

Speaking of players who are bye free don’t discount the season of Callum Mills. He’s currently in 3% of teams, has scored five tons and will still leave you with some much-needed cash over in a trade. Another of the NSW teams is Zac Williams. His previous three scores have been 112, 105 & 111. The injury history in the body is the only concern, but you can still get him cheaper than his starting price. I know Jackson Thurlow has scored well during the last few weeks but in good conscience, I couldn’t advocate trading someone you thought was a top 6-10 ranked defender (in Sicily) to Thurlow.

Other players that won’t be impacted by a future bye round include Jordan Ridley. He’s been one of the best breakout buys of the year. Round 12’s score of 77 was his lowest for the year, beyond that his three lowest scores of the year have been 88, 92 and 94. While the value has well and truly gone, he’s been sublime this year. My only caution is that he’s been playing sore the last few weeks. Fingers crossed he won’t need to be managed soon.

West Coast Eagles pair Shannon Hurn and Brad Sheppard both have shown over the years they can get on hot streaks and score well. Both scored over 95 last round; however, the week prior both failed to score 70. If you choose either player, it appears to be a little bit of a rollercoaster.

The last of the bye free options to consider are Fremantle Docker trio Luke Ryan, Connor Blakely and Adam Cerra. Plenty of coaches will have seen the 162 delivered from Luke Ryan and given less than 6,000 coaches own him (3%) don’t be surprised to see that number more than double this week. What current owners will know is that he’s now scored seven consecutive hundreds with four of those have been 118 or above. Sorry current owners, but your unique premium is about to get alot more popular.

If you want a unique, then Blakely and Cerra both have shown they have the ceiling about them. As long as they keep getting this midfield time, they’ll score well. Will it be enough to average 95+ over the coming month? I’m not sure, but if you like a left-field option, then both are candidates.

This time last week coaches were clamouring over Rory Laird given he’d posted a 185. However, a 77 has seen coaches enthusiasm dampen somewhat. Irrespective of it he’s still a reasonable pick. An average in the high 90’s and a season-low of 72 shows he’s still a decent scoring option. Honestly, I couldn’t trade him in this week knowing that he’d miss the following week with a bye round.

It’s the same for Alex Witherden, in the last four weeks he’s scored 170, 85, 100 and 101. In just 3% of teams and looks to have locked himself back into the Lions back six. Indeed, he’s scoring well, but it’s always filled with risk to trade a player in when you know they’ll miss the following week with a bye. Throw in Brodie Smith in this category too. Scoring well, but not playing round 14.

Finally, regular scoring good options in Brayden Maynard, Caleb Daniel and Tom Stewart are all perfectly capable options which are yet to have a bye. If I were to bring it one this week of the trio, it’d be Stewart, given he comes up against the Crows who are bleeding points in every position. One player I wouldn’t chase is Jayden Short, the Tigers have already confirmed that Bachar Houli will play in round 13. I’d want to see how (if at all) Houli’s return impacts his scoring before committing to that move.

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Ownership: 11%

The freedom of options is endless for AFLFantasy coaches, unlike DreamTeam and SuperCoach players where you still have to navigate a potential round free of scoring. In this format, coaches are awarded the players seasonal average when they are on a bye round. Meaning, no player is off-limits due to team bye structures.

Because of that, players who have had their bye aren’t as structurally important as the other two formats. Jake Lloyd is priced now over $800,000. Still, with three tons in his last five outings, he’s the only defensive premium I could feel ‘safe’ with investing significant amounts of dollars. Beyond him, there are only three other players set to play next round that are averaging over 80. They are Bachar Houli, Alex Witherden and Jackson Thurlow. I’d be nervous about going anywhere near Houli this week given it was back in round five when he last played. Given it’s more than $100,000 to upgrade up to him via Sicily, my encouragement is to save yourself some cash and go elsewhere.

On the topic of $100,000, that’s about the amount Alex Witherden has gone up since breaking back into the Lions side in round 9. Just 7.6% of coaches own him, and 78 is his lowest score in the last month. What might further tempt coaches is that in round 14 when the Lions have a week off, he’ll be awarded his average which is currently sitting just shy of 82. In a year where getting secure defensive premium scores is tricky, it might just be enough to tempt coaches.

If you need a player who could score 80 & make you a little bit of cash, then Jackson Thurlow does come into contention. But he isn’t someone I’d have confidence is scoring well weekly. Over his career, Thurlow has tempted us with his potential but has never fully seen it realised. Maybe it happens for him in 2020. I’m happy for someone else to have that win and steer for clearer waters.

If you want a unique option then Luke McDonald and Bailey Williams in this format are the perfect picks. In the case of Williams, his last five scores are: 71, 75, 79, 80 & 90 making him one of the form defenders of late. Similarly, McDonald’s fantasy resurgence has continued the last fortnight with scores of 123 and 88. Even though his price is starting to get near $700k a matchup against Collingwood who bleed points to opposition defenders might just sway you to spend the extra cash.

The two players you can have confidence in are Tom Stewart and Callum Mills. Both have shown this year, and over seasons past they have a fantasy game, but besides this their scoring deviation this year is much tighter than many of their counterparts. Not far behind would be Luke Ryan who only one score below 83 in his last five including a 102.

If your looking for a player that is capable of a 90+ score then Jordan Ridley, Brodie Smith and Zac Bailey have all shown the potential to deliver scores in this range.

Fingers crossed that tonight AFLFantasy award us a new DPP defender that we can bank an 80+ score from weekly.

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Ownership: 7%

The one line I dislikes the available premium options in 2020 is the backline. The core reason being is weekly we have the smallest deviation of scoring between cash cows and premiums. An example of this is last round where Will Day scored 75 and yet premium players in Tom Stewart, Callum Mills and Luke Ryan all scored within 12 points. This isn’t just a ‘once-off’ but a weekly occurrence where popular cows are regularly scoring within a dozen of the so-called premiums in the line.

Beyond Jake Lloyd, I have zero confidence in any player on any week. He’s the only defender that is scoring well (and by that I mean 80+) most weeks. But if you already own him or don’t have the funds available there are still some options that offer to score some decent consistency. On current form, Bailey Williams (83 in last 3) looks a reasonable unique pick with only 2% of coaches in the competition on board. A 90 against the Crows is a nice scoring boost, but even before that, he had the lowest score of 71 in his previous four outings. Just remember he’ll have the week off in round 15, so plan accordingly.

I like the recent form of Luke Ryan. An average of 85 in his last five weeks including in it a ton. A scoring range many of our backs have struggled to obtain in 2020. On current form his ranked 9th for defenders in the last five weeks. With just 2% of coaches on board, he could be the player for you. Don’t forget he’s bye round free for the rest of the year.

If you have confidence in the recent scoring form of Alex Witherden then normally he’d be the prime target, but he along with Adelaide’s Brodie Smith and Rory Laird will miss round 14 with the bye. All three are currently inside the top 10 for averages in the last three weeks but can your structure afford to trade them in this week only to not aid your team next week? If you’re prepared to carry them through then all three are worthy of consideration all be it, not cheap.

If you need a play that won’t be affected by the multi bye rounds between 14-16, then it’s probably down to either of Callum Mills or Jordan Ridley. Both are averaging mid 70’s for the year and are inside the top 10 for both averages. Two other players who usually are highly consistent to consider but both are still to have a bye are Tom Stewart and Jack Crisp. Last rounds 54 for Crisp was his lowest score in six weeks and only his second under 73 since round six. While for Stewart, he’s averaging 75 in his last five and is coming up against the winless Crows this weekend. If you want a likely immediate scoring bump from a premium defender then his matchup this week should allow it.

UltimateFooty: Round 6 Positional Changes

After rounds 3, 6 & 9 the drafting format of Ultimate Footy awards additional player positions to players that have had a role change in season. As always players are required to have played a minimum of 3 games to be eligible and to be playing the new position as their primary role in the side.

In total 12 players have gained an additional position, two players have gained back status, five gaining centre, one new ruck and four have picked up forward status. Let’s look at who they are and the relevance to your draft sides and leagues.

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Kyron Hayden | Add Back

The big-bodied midfielder has found a home more recently in the Kangaroos backline and because of this has picked up the new position. As far as relevance for UltimateFooty coaches, there is none. A seasonal average of 33 from five matches and a top score of 45 is the type of scoring you only wish on your opposition and want nowhere near your squad. Pass… Next!

Jay Lockhart | Add Back

Stay with us, there will be a DPP that helps UltimateFooty community, but Jay Lockhart isn’t it either. The forward turned pressure defender is in a similar scoring boat to Hayden above. A top score of 42 and an average of 34 isn’t worth having on your roster. There is a reason why his average draft position was over 350 and why he’s owned in just 4% of leagues. Pass!

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Brodie Smith | Add Centre

Even before the injury-hit Adelaide skipper Rory Sloane, the Crows have loved using Brodie Smith higher up the ground in 2020. The club loves using his elite kicking skills for inside 50 delivery, and while the Crows forwards are yet to get it done, Brodie is playing his part, and his fantasy football results are starting to show. Even though he had a slow start (35 and 45), his past four weeks have been impressive—Scoring 73, 73, 75 and last week’s 107 against West Coast. In the past three weeks, only Nick Haynes and Callum Mills have stronger averages for those back eligible players. The allocation of centre DPP just enhances your scoring potential, especially if you might be blessed with all the best backs. Using the same three-week rolling average, he’s currently ranked 26th for averages in all of UF.

Ben Keays | Add Centre

Since breaking into the Crows side, Ben Keays has found a role for himself playing as a tagger in the Adelaide midfield. His actual value is the fact that he’s forward eligible and has scored a 68, 72 and 59 in three of his last four outings. In most leagues that enough to consider placing on the field this year. Like anyone who gains a centre positional allocation it only ever enhances squad versatility, not player relevance.

Christian Petracca | Add Centre

The breakout year of Christian Petracca is well and truly on! He’s currently ranked as the top-scoring forward this year for total points. One of the primary reasons behind the scoring boost has been a significant increase in his midfield role at Melbourne. It’s no surprise he’s picked up C/F DPP.

James Aish | Add Centre

The move to Fremantle has seen the former Magpie become a crucial part of replacing Ed Langdon and Brad Hill. Playing predominantly as a winger James Aish is having a personal best season in terms of his relevance for draft coaches Currently as a back eligible player he’s ranked inside the top 20 for total points scored. As with every player that every gains centre status, it only ever adds flexibility to your squad and not adding to points on the field for owners.

Adam Cerra | Add Centre

Like teammate James Aish, 20-year-old Adam Cerra has taken his opportunities with departures in a few former teammates and started to make the midfield role his own. As a player, he’s a great user of the ball on both sides of his body, strong over the footy and clean at ground level. After being selected at pick five in the 2017 draft, Docker fans (and keeper league owners) are starting to get some glimpses of the player he’ll become. He’s ranked inside the top 50 for backs on averages and inside the top 40 based on total points. Does being awarded DPP make much of a difference to owners? Probably not, but it validates the role change he’s had in 2020.

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Darcy Fort | Add Ruck

This new DPP might be a but a very relevant one depending on the ruck stocks in your league. In the Geelong Cats ruck roulette, he’s the current flavour of the month. As such, he should be given the status given that when he has played in 2020 (four games), he’s been the ruckmen. A three-round average of 53 isn’t incredible, but as a bench cover, it’s not the worst. His scoring is significantly higher if you have additional scoring categories turned on.

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Tom Phillips | Add Forward

2018-2019 saw some fantastic scoring from Tom Phillips as he looked to establish himself as one of the best wingmen in the game. Averages of 95 and 90 had his coaches expecting another strong return in 2020. Except for Andrew Gaff, most wingers are seeing a scoring dip, but for Philips, it’s even more significant. For him, it’s more as he’s moved into a higher forward role. The benefit for the coaches that drafted him (Average draft position of 125) is that he moves from a midfielder you cannot field to now someone you can place in your forward line. His 101 back in round two against Richmond feels a long time away given he’s followed it up with four consecutive scores between 51-57. An average of 58.8 is far from stunning as a midfielder, but as a forward in this weird season, it’s not horrendous. He currently ranks inside the top 50 forwards and is ahead of popular picks like teammate Jordan De Goey, Luke Dahlhaus, Blake Acres and Robbie Gray. Small comfort for owners who’ve been frustrated with the return based on where there drafted him.

Jonathon Marsh | Add Forward

The Saints are stacked when it comes to tall defenders. With Callum Wilkie, Dougal Howard and Jake Carlisle taking up the three tall defensive posts the only way for the former Magpie to break into the side was through injury or a role change. For Jono Marsh, his journey back to the elite level more consistently has been through a role change. The offseason departure of Josh Bruce has opened up a tall vacancy to support young star Max King and Tim Membrey. From a fantasy football perspective scores of 39, 65, 41 and 24 are far from what we should want on our lists.

Hayden McLean | Add Forward

The Swans have been decimated for injures to key position players in 2020 and Hayden McLean while in the side as a ruck at centre bounces he has been forced to be a used up forward in general play to create a tall target to support Nick Blakey. A top score of 53 in the last four weeks isn’t huge, but could be handy in deeper leagues or those with additional scoring categories switched on. Regardless, once the talls start to return over the next few weeks I suspect he might not have the strongest job security.

Jarryn Geary | Add Forward

The Saints have had a radical change to their structures in 2020, and that was bound to happen given the plethora of players they brought into the team via the recent trade period. One of those changes was to use Jarryn Geary’s defensive skills up forward on opposition teams best playmaker. In the few times he’s done it he’s done a reasonable job. Given he’s only played four games in 2020 and one of those was an eight his average of 31 means that his fantasy relevance is as strong as the Adelaide Crows goal scoring. Non-existent!

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Close, but not yet…

Many coaches were hopeful that Dayne Zorko had done enough to be awarded forward status. And he was mighty close to picking up DPP. What arguably hurt his cause was that he’s missed multiple games through injury (round 3 & 5) plus missed a majority of the clubs round four clash with injury concerns.

JLT Players of Interest: Adelaide Vs Port Adelaide

It was a scorching afternoon at Memorial Oval in Port Pirie, and the Crows and Power did battle in over 40-degree temperatures. Both sides have plenty of fantasy football relevant players to discuss, and we learnt plenty because of this hitout.

Rory Sloane

A strong all-around game from the new co-captain. Sloane amassed 28 disposals at 75% efficiency, seven score involvements, eight marks, five clearances and four tackles. With no tagger employed today by Port, we got to see exactly how good a fantasy footballer he is when permitted to dictate the game.

Rory Laird

Plenty has been speculated (including by myself) about the potential impact of the new kick-in rules and the scoring damage it could have on Laird. Based off this game, it seems apparent that we may be over complicating it as he continued on his merry way scoring at will and very much showed that a ‘dip’ in scoring might be marginal if any.

Brodie Smith

If you’d been considering Brodie before today, he did nothing to dent your confidence. He started the game on fire and was used often used by his club to rebound out of defensive 50 (6) and also deliver the ball inside 50 (4). Smith spent most of the game across half-back. He had only two kick-ins today (from a possible five) and played on in every occasion.

Brad Crouch

Brad looked not just good, but very good. Moved freely and covered the ground in trying conditions with relative ease. Won his fair share of the contested ball, and was able to utilise his speed from stoppage as he won five clearances. He showed everything you’d want as a current owner and will tempt those looking for value even more so given how strong his performance was.

Matt Crouch

Matt led all players for total disposals on the ground finishing with 32 at 71% efficiency. Typical Crouch game and showed precisely what he’s capable of delivering.

Travis Boak

Travis is listed as a forward, but he played this game predominantly as a midfielder, something the coaching staff have spoken about numerous times during the preseason. With Ollie Wines likely to miss the opening 2-3 games he could well be the leader of the midfield unit and like today score well.

Zac Butters

Zac demonstrated speed, class and poise beyond his years. Port Adelaide have a beauty of a player, and he’ll be a long term fan favourite for the club. With the departures of the side during the offseason, they need to add a dynamic player and Butters meets that criteria. Lock him in for a round one appearance based off that performance.

Will Drew

Drew did plenty of nice things leading his side with seven clearances, kicked a nice goal and used the ball well both in traffic and in space. As mentioned above with Wines missing a few games early this cash cow is doing everything required to be named round one.

Justin Westhoff

Played just over 50% of the game time and did some nice things, but all my fears got confirmed across this game. That being Port at times looked too tall and lacked speed and ground pressure. Mr FixIt is still an upgrade target, but someone I’m still going to steer away from as a starter.

Tom Rockliff

Spent plenty of time off the ground with Tom just playing 60% of game time. For the minority of coaches that were considering Rocky, I do think it’s time you look elsewhere. At his price, while he will improve on his average I don’t see it being to the level owners may hope for.

#35 Most Relevant: Brodie Smith

The Crows dashing defender was desperately missed for most of 2018, and while for some coaches he’s placed on the ‘never again list’ for the coaches that do select him I can see him playing a valuable role.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Brodie Smith
Age: 27
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Defender

2018 Highest Score: 
101 Vs GWS Giants (AFLFantasy)
129 Vs GWS Giants (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 

77.5 (AFLFantasy)
87.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $332,500
AFLFantasy Price: $
439,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: 
$388,000

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

The Crows injury curse started in the qualifying final in 2017 against GWS, and it was in that game Brodie Smith injured his ACL and missed not only the rest of the Crows finals campaign but the vast majority of 2018 season. The positive of this for fantasy coaches is he’s priced cheaper than he’s been for several years and no longer does he have to be a top 10 averaging defender to select him.

It’s dangerous sometimes to go too many seasons back in averages, but it is worth reminding ourselves of his scoring pedigree. In 2014 a year he was honoured with All Australian selection he ended the year with a SuperCoach average of 93.5 including nine scores over 100 with 3 of them over 130. For AFLFantasy coaches that season he averaged 82 and hit the triple figure mark in 7 matches.

In his last full season at AFL level in 2017, he averaged 82 in SuperCoach scored on his average or higher in 10 matches including four scores over the hundred with the lowest a 108. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 79, 13 of those scores were above the average, and in 4 games he scored over the ton. In his final 11 games of the season, he averaged 93 in SuperCoach and 88 in AFLFantasy. For his two matches on the comeback trail from his ACL, he scored 54 and 101 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and a 46 and 129 in SuperCoach.

When fit and firing Brodie Smith is one of the most damaging run and carry players in the league let alone at the club. He possesses a booming and accurate right foot, and has plenty of speed to burn. In his game against the Giants, he showcased precisely what the footy club had missed all year with 29 disposals, six marks, six rebound 50s and a team-high 599 metres gained.

MY TAKE

Of more recent seasons he’s struggled to hit those fantasy defensive premium heights consistently of his All Australian season where he was a good fantasy premium. The key is, we’re not paying for him at the price tag of an 80-90 average defender, nor while a possibility especially in SuperCoach we are not likely to keep him. We are paying to own him at a considerably less price than what he’s consistently delivered and coaches that select him to have a straightforward strategy at play.

Brodie Smith is one of the best pure defensive stepping stones this season. He’s set to generate cash plenty of cash for you this year and also bank you a ton of points on the way through. The only real reason your choosing to not seriously consider him, even just as a JLT Community Series watchlist is because in 2019 you’ll be ignoring any stepping stone options in the backline and opt for only a Guns and Rookies approach.

For me, he’s in all my sides currently in every format, and it’ll take some effort to dislodge him. Indeed, we’ve got plenty of stepping stones to consider, but for me, I think he’s one of the best.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Another interesting selection based on his previous history of averages would be likely to place him as a D4 option in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam depending on the depth of your league squads and teams. For SuperCoach historically he’d go at about D3 but due to his injury, you may be able to get him a position later than that at D4.

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