Month: August 2020

Four Rounds of Fantasy Football Remain, But What Do I Do?
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Read Time:4 Minute, 39 Second

Round 14 of the AFL season is over! As fantasy football coaches, we now have just four weeks in the season to go. The big dilemma for coaches is wondering what do I do now?

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Narrow Your Focus

Do you have OFFD? Obsessive Fantasy Football disorder. If you’re anything like many of the Coaches Panel community you play a variety of formats and if you a have other draft leagues happening you could be needing two hands to count the number of teams you’re in charge of. The reality is it’s rare to find yourself for a chance at the top 100 in one format let alone multiple in the same season. It’s perfectly fine to want strong ranking results across numerous formats. However, it’s always better when you find yourself in contention to narrow the focus into the format where you’re the greatest chance of success. One remarkable result alongside two OK format ranks always trumps three decent rankings.

That doesn’t mean pay zero attention to the other formats. Rather, instead of splitting the research time over three evenly. Devote yourself to the one and then make the minor tweaks to the others. Who knows, a simple adjustment of priorities could be the thing that delivers you a career-high ranking.

Skill + Luck = Success

Skill in this game alone is not enough! I know plenty of skilled coaches that yearly just haven’t got the ranking that accurately reflects how good they are at this game. Equally, success in fantasy football isn’t just a game of luck and chance. Sure you can get lucky with a booming score for a week or two, but ultimately luck isn’t enough. To have success in a fantasy football season, you need both: skill and Luck. You need the skill to get a strong rankings position, but then some luck to win it all.

A perfect example of luck (or lack of) for coaches from last round is for coaches who traded in either of Josh Kelly or Luke Ryan. Both had been in fantastic form, and both had favourable scoring matchups. On top of that, they would be eligible to play five games when eight clubs were only able to play a maximum of four. However, in-game injuries limited the scoring potential. Added to the pain of the week is both Kelly and Ryan are likely to miss round 15. Bringing neither in was a bad trade or lack of skill on a coaching front. Instead, it’s just bad luck.

Go For It

it’s better to go out in straight sets in finals by having a go than holding back trades for a rainy day. It’s better to let your ranking blow out to 2000 than just floating inside the top 300 hoping for something to go your way. Life doesn’t work like that, and neither does fantasy football. Winter Olympian Steven Bradbury has become famous because others in front fell over at the finish line, but in all honesty that is the exception rather than the norm.

If you’re chasing down the competition leaders, you cannot just sit around hoping for a fantasy footy implosion from them. Rather, you need to do what you can to put yourself into a winning position first and then hope for things to fall your way. A reactionary and cautious approach when chasing won’t deliver you success. Go for it, go all out and if it doesn’t work out for you at least you know you tried everything to try and win it.

Better to lose by alot trying to win, rather than being close and having the regrets of ‘what if’ hovering around. Go for it!

Be Different

You will not win your league or the rankings by going with the crowd. If you want to make some gap on the pack, then you need to go against the popular grain of moves. That doesn’t mean you go unique for the sake of it, but rather in your research take a keen note on what your opponents are doing. The more variables available to you, the more opportunities for differential you create.

Trading in a Lachie Neale, Christian Petracca or even a Jake Lloyd as good have they have been in 2020 won’t do much help for you now. Trading them into your team is truly a defensive move. Unless your team is already stacked with plenty of unique matchups then I couldn’t advocate for trading them in.

Someone like a Bachar Houli, he is a fantastic low owned option who has a scoring ceiling that can rival the best options. Under 6% of coaches in all formats of the game own him and coming off a 98 (AFLFantasy) and 147 (SuperCoach) is a great reminder of his scoring.

Another high scoring, but low ownership option is Matt Crouch. He’s currently in less than 2% of teams, and ahead of his bye round, he was averaging 107 in his last three in AFLFantasy and 121 in SuperCoach.

Neither of these two are lower-tier trade targets, in fact on current form they are up the with the best in their lines. But what helps elevate them for me over others? Low ownership! If you have nothing different in your side, you won’t create a gap or makeup ground on the pack. Set your team apart!

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20 Best UltimateFooty Draft Selections of 2020
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Read Time:1 Minute, 42 Second

Every preseason draft coaches excitedly prepare for draft day. They spend months doing mock drafts, building their tiers and do everything possible to ready themselves for the most important day of the year. Truth be told, you don’t win your league on those early rounds of draft day. More often than not you win your draft of the back of some astute late picks and waiver wire selections.

You’ll always get some value for selections inside the top 100 picks. For example, Jack Steele is currently ranked sixth for total points scored but on the draft day had an average draft position of 79.6. In a ten team league, that’s an 8th round selection and an excellent return for owners. Christian Petracca is another who had an average draft position of 90.4 but is the highest ranked forward for both points and averages.

Even between picks 100-200, you get some that absolutely pop. One of the surprise packets of the year is Brayden Maynard. He’s currently ranked third for total points behind Jake Lloyd and Rory Laird (both picked within first three rounds) while Brayden’s ADP was 164. Sam Menegola (149) and Trent Dumont (153) were highly drafted but given their positioning have been enormous successes for owners.

As great as these selections have been, and they are. I want to look at players who were picked beyond range 200 that have gone on to return some of the best value of the fantasy footy season. So using UltimateFooty statistics as our guide here are 20 late round selections that you can build a case are the best picks of 2020.

NamePositionAverageADPDrafted %
Luke McDonaldDEF72.428714%
Jordan RidleyDEF73.724854%
Bailey WilliamsDEF66.524042%
Adam CerraDEF/MID6320161%
Zac Bailey DEF/MID6528315%
Jack BowesDEF/MID66.723864%
Jack LukosiousDEF/FWD6623647%
Cam GuthrieMID83.324062%
Tom LiberatoreMID67.323168%
Josh DaicosMID67.829021%
Jed AndersonMID8422272%
Will SetterfieldMID62257575%
Oscar AllenRUC/FWD602828%
Peter LadhamsRUC/FWD71.725640%
Ben KeaysMID/FWD62.23333%
James RowbottomMID/FWD59.922852%
Shai BoltonMID/FWD65.627624%
Jy SimpkinMID/FWD74.421176%
Michael GibbonsFWD60.530315%
Zak ButtersFWD62.327713%

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Breakevens | Round 14
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Read Time:3 Minute, 4 Second

Buy low, sell high! It’s the age-old motto to succeed in Fantasy football of all formats. Every week we share with you the players with the lowest breakevens across AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & DreamTeam. Here are the players that offer the best breakevens heading into a new round.

PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
 J. Riccardi FWD$117,30082-33
 X. O’Halloran MID$154,10060.5-28
 T. Watson DEF$155,40061-28
 I. Mosquito FWD$123,90077-25
 B. Starcevich DEF/MID$256,80056.5-23
 S. DraperRUC$271,50083-21
 W. Walker FWD$183,30065-19
 D. MinchingtonFWD$141,50051.5-17
 K. Hayden MID$248,30052.4-17
 L. Butler DEF/MID$141,90051-16
 L. Melican DEF$289,50061.8-12
 L. Fogarty MID$279,40071-11
 N. Reid FWD$119,60041-10
 S. Skinner FWD$130,20044.5-10
 M. Frederick FWD$142,00033.7-9
 X. O’Neill MID$123,90059-7
 K. Brooksby RUC$117,30055-6
 Z. FootMID/FWD$141,10045.5-6
 S. PhilpMID$140,90045.5-6
 T. De KoningRUC$174,50049.3-5
 B. CavarraFWD$165,60045.3-4
 T. Fullarton FWD$123,90054-2
 H. Jones MID$123,90054-2
 E. WoodDEF$281,80060.6-2
 M. Gibbons FWD$372,00078.10
 M. Cottrell DEF$162,10043.70
 R. Stoddart DEF$138,700420
 H. Schoenberg MID$190,40053.20
PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
J. Riccardi FWD$218,00087-25
 L. ButlerDEF/MID$229,00050.5-10
 S. Draper RUC$334,00057.8-8
 B. Cavarra FWD$247,00044.7-6
 T. Fullarton FWD$184,00040-6
 T. Watson DEF $255,00046-6
 M. HibberdMID$324,00052.3-6
 R. StoddartDEF $238,00047.5-4
 L. HosieFWD$239,00042.3-2
 J. Mcinerney MID$282,00044-2
 B. DavisFWD$182,00037-2
 M. Cottrell DEF $243,00042.7-1
 I. MosquitoFWD$190,00049-1
 B. Woodcock FWD$290,000470
 T. De Koning RUC$247,00041.30
 K. Strachan RUC/FWD$179,000310
 J. Payne DEF $179,000321
 X. O’Neill MID$188,000461
 X. O’HalloranMID$234,00039.33
 J. ButtsDEF $177,000303
 J. Jones FWD$273,00050.54
 J. Rotham DEF $423,00056.45
 T. MurphyDEF $260,00040.75
 S. Skinner FWD$283,00049.56
 J. BytelMID$238,00039.77
 N. Reid FWD$197,00033.57
 Z. FootMID/FWD$203,000358
 L. Melican DEF $286,00033.89
 J. Geary DEF$311,00034.810
 C. Ballenden FWD$187,0002610
PlayerPositionPriceAverageBreakeven
J. RiccardiFWD$152,20087-49
S. SkinnerFWD$191,00050-29
L. ButlerDEF/MID$199,90051-28
B. CavarraFWD$240,50045-23
R. StoddartDEF/MID$202,10049-21
T. WatsonDEF $200,10046-19
J. GearyDEF$290,80035-17
 D. Minchington FWD$184,10040-13
T. De KoningRUC$227,10041-12
X. O’HalloranMID$189,70040-11
N. ReidFWD$156,90034-10
M. CottrellDEF$235,30043-9
I. MosquitoFWD$160,90049-9
L. FogartyMID$387,10060-7
R. LesterDEF$367,40045-7
S. DraperRUC$321,00058-7
B. WoodcockFWD$270,30047-7
K. HaydenMID $286,50037-6
X. O’NeilMID$160,90046-6
N. BlakelyFWD$406,40048-4
T. MurphyDEF$253,60041-4
Z. FootMID/FWD$182,10035-4
M. HibberdMID $306,60052-3
L. MelicanDEF$295,80037-1
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UltimateFooty: Round 12 Positional Changes
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Read Time:6 Minute, 32 Second

After rounds 3, 6, 9 & 12 the drafting format of Ultimate Footy awards additional player positions to players that have had a role change in season. As always players are required to have played a minimum of 3 games to be eligible and to be playing the new position as their primary role in the side.

In total 10 players have gained an additional position, two players has gained back status, four gaining centre, one new ruck and three have picked up forward status. Let’s look at who they are and the relevance to your draft sides and leagues.

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Will Powell | ADD BACK

Will Powell isn’t a sexy name acquisition to our backlines, but his number highlight that he is someone we need to patrol the player markets for consideration. Over the past five week’s he’s averaging 57 which features scores of 73 and 67. His seasonal average of 47 might put off some coaches, but a look into the numbers shows he’s much more reliable than that. This average includes an injury impacted score of 3. So he’s much closer to the mid-’50s in terms of real deliverables. On the first reflection that’s not amazing, but it’s enough to get him inside the top 75 backs based on averages. It’s not amazing, but you could do worse.

Ryan Gardner | ADD BACK

His scoring isn’t relevant for even the draft format, let alone classic. But it’s a role change that needs to be awarded. Ryan Gardner is currently owned by 1% of leagues and that still too high a number for our liking.

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Travis Varcoe | ADD CENTRE

Meh! It’s a warranted gain that Travis Varcoe picks up this positional allocation, but is he even someone you want in your draft side? We don’t think so. Currently he’s in just 2% of teams and the allocation of this additional position will not boost it.

Connor Blakely | ADD CENTRE

Since breaking into the Fremantle side a few weeks ago, Connor Blakely has been allowed to play his preferred role through the midfield. The dockers are playing a high possession game style that is profitable for fantasy football coaches. It’s seen with scores of Caleb Serong, Adam Cerra and Andrew Brayshaw over the last few weeks. Thankfully Connor has been able to get in on this action a little bit with two 70+ scores in his previous three games. As always for players who gain centre status, it just adds squad versatility more than scoring benefit to your draft team.

Sydney Stack | ADD CENTRE

The Tigers have done well over the festival of footy to expose as many players as possible to some AFL game time. One of those is Sydney Stack. The classy ball user has been given a reasonable go through the midfield over the last month. He’s scoring OK, but nothing amazing. And as a back now with DPP he just offers you cover should cover in multiple lines if you get stuck for a player.

Mark Blicavs | ADD CENTRE

A seasonal average of 58 is being elevated by a five-game average of 73. Mark Blicavs is one of the Mr Fixit options at the disposal of the Geelong coaching staff. The athletic beast is equally as capable as playing a lockdown defensive role, as he is as a relief ruck or a tall winger. His hitout numbers have seen a significant boost over the last month. However, is Blics playing as a ruckman? Not according to the team at UF! One can presume it’s more as an around the ground role as a midfielder/wingman that he’s been getting these chances in their eyes.

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Oscar Allen | ADD RUCK

With Nic Naitanui taking the lead ruck role the Eagles have often used another tall as the relief ruck. West Coast turned to Oscar Allen to help bring some support. This year he’s averaging career-high hitouts a game and providing viable support to NicNat. While it might not appear to have much benefit, this could be hugely helpful in deeper and category scoring leagues.

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Lachie Fogarty | ADD FORWARD

In the past few weeks, Lachie Fogarty has shown his scoring potential. Over the past five weeks, his scores have included a 65, 87 & 61. These scores are reasonable as a centre, but now with the allocation of forward status, he is undoubtedly a substantial stash on your forward bench if nothing else. The challenge for him is about retaining a role inside the Cats best 22. While he adds plenty of defensive efforts and speed to a Geelong forward line, the cats are about to welcome Luke Dahlhaus back into the team from injury. Can he score well when playing? Absolutely! Is his role in the side secure? Far from it!

Jye Caldwell | ADD FORWARD

He’s found it hard to crack into the GWS side over his time since being drafted. However, Jye Caldwell is starting to craft a role for himself in the team primarily as a forward. His burst of acceleration, goal sense and defensive efforts have seen him be rewarded with five consecutive games. As a centre only option he’s not someone even worth considering as an emergency cover, but as a forward, he brings some value and given he’s in only 46% of leagues you’ve got a chance to snag him off your player market with a waiver wire pick. A vast majority of those would be keeper leagues too.

A season-high 74 and three additional scores over 50 mean that he won’t set the world on fire, but he now becomes draft relevant all be it only by a smaller amount.

Ned McHenry | ADD FORWARD

He’s only a relevant player in keeper or dynasty leagues but expect over time the Crows to give Ned McHenry a chance. The Crows invested in a first-round selection, and since his debut earlier this year Ned has been given limited midfield minutes. Keeper league owners will be hoping this small forward who has shown the potential in the SANFL to play up the ground is given his chances. In his first season at SANFL level, McHenry averaged 18.1 disposals (at 77 per cent efficiency), 5.3 marks, 4.5 tackles, 1.6 clearances, 2.8 inside 50’s and 1.8 rebounds.

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70% OR GREATER

Where’s Nat Fyfe, Patrick Dangerfield, Dayne Zorko or any other player that you feel is missing? One of the things that make UltimateFooty unique is that for a player to be awarded DPP they must be playing 70% of game time in this new position. So why has your player missed the cut? Likely that in the data it would suggest they haven’t spent enough time in that role.

Only exception is backup rucks as UF generally need more rucks in the game to help deep leagues

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What is the 50 Most Relevant? Launching Soon!
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Read Time:28 Second

Starting from January 1st we bring back The Coaches Panel and it’s because of your support as a loyal patreon member. We’ll launch at whole new website www.coachespanel.tv + daily articles and podcasts.

If you are a Breakout or Premium member Cash Cow you’ll get 24 hour early access here on our patreon page to the daily podcasts of the 50 Most Relevant, meaning you’ll always be ahead of everyone else that listens to the podcast. 

What is the 50 Most Relevant and how does it work? Tune in as I explain 🙂


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