We asked the Coaches Panel members to tell us who they believe are the best keeper league targets for every AFL club aged 22 and under. Here are their responses.
First up, you can tune into the podcast episode where every pick is discussed and why.
It’s happened every year, and it’ll happen again in 2021, where fantasy coaches destroy their preseason with careless coaching choices. Here are just some of the mistakes you need to avoid making this preseason.
Let’s be honest; this one is so easy to fall into the trap. Where a player dominates a preseason game and before the match is even over, they’ve made their way into your side.
While it might not be implicitly a wrong move, when it gets hairy is if that player wasn’t on your radar even before the game. If you find yourself in this situation, it means one of two things. Firstly, your preseason research was to shallow that you missed information that was already out there. Or secondly, you’ve reacted to one good game and got seduced by the moment.
What’s important to watch for in the intra, scratch and preseason matches is trends. For example, Paddy Dow dominated the Blues/Bombers preseason scratch match. Now was this a once off? Possibly.
But what’s important to note is that all preseason the club have been vocal about him owning the midfield. Coach David Teague even told afl.com.au that ‘his physique has changed, he’s quite strong, and he’s exploding out of stoppages.’
So has he made his way into your team after this match? If so, what’s changed? Did you miss something in the preseason? Or are you being seduced in the moment into something you know is wrong?
Not Considering Who’s Missing
While we track the role/functions of players in the match, we need to be aware of which clear best 22 players are not taking part in the game.
For example, Dom Tyson and Aaron Hall both spent plenty of time in the midfield in the Saints and Kangaroos scratch match. At first glance, both could be value pics for fantasy coaches to lock in with a midfield role like that. However, don’t just watch the role (we’ll talk about that soon) but look out for who’s missing.
For example, Ben Cunnington, Jed Anderson, Luke Davies-Uniacke, and Trent Dumont were all not playing. All are clear best 22 when fit and will push both Dom & Aaron either down the pecking order our completely out of the team
If a player is playing a potentially fantasy-friendly role take note, but don’t forget to factor in, which clear best 22 and prominent players regularly in the side are missing (if any at all.)
Following The Crowd
While it’s good to listen to fantasy podcasts, websites, fellow coaches and ‘experts’ for advice and insight, there’s sometimes a moment where their opinion of a player contradicts your current view. If you come across one of these moments, do not throw the ‘baby out with the bathwater and disregard the player you’ve been bullish on just because someone else has an opinion different to yours.
Conversely, don’t just pick a player because everyone else is, and they have a high ownership percentage.
Use these moments to double-check your research, challenge your existing confirmation bias (if any) in the process and redetermine for yourself why this player is no longer a ‘starter’ for you.
As long as your reasoning is logical, clear and holds the weight, it doesn’t matter what I or anyone else says, back yourself in. It’s always better to back your pick in and be wrong than to go against it and be proven right.
When it comes to the full-blown season, a players fantasy output determines your success as a fantasy coach. However, nothing could be further from the truth in the AAMI Community series or scratch mates. When watching these games, don’t check the scores and then determine whether a player should stay within your side or not.
Instead, look at the player’s role that they are functioning in the side. Are they getting the desired position that is optimal to in-season scoring? Is this role the team’s primary function, or are they spending a majority of time in another part?
A players role is more important to observe during the match rather than their end of game fantasy score.
Think you’ve got what it takes to beat the Coaches Panel in DreamTeam, SuperCoach or AFL Fantasy? Below are the league codes where you can take on the panel members in a head to head combat.
Coaches Panel Fox – 687067
Coaches Panel Rids – 970904
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Coaches Panel Tim – UVXWDKRJ – FULL
Coaches Panel Lewy – 4HSKD2NU – FULL
Coaches Panel Rids – 9L2UX2NJ
Coaches Panel MJ – TZ37ATMM – FULL
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Be sure to also sign into the Coaches Panel official group; this will be the code you need to use for the ‘Nobel Koel’ competition.
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Marcus Bontempelli | $623,900 Average 116 | 7% Ownership
Last year we saw Marcus Bontempelli at some of his personal best. In the AFL he ranked 2nd for centre clearances, 6th inside ’50s, 9th for tackles & 18th for score involvements. Impressively he isn’t just an attacking midfielder. Bont is prepared to do the tough defence work. Despite the shorter quarters, he still averaged the same amount of tackles in 2020 that he did from 2019.
In SuperCoach, he ranked 5th among all mids for both total points and averages. He scored 11 tons; 6 of these were over 120, while a monster 3 went over 160, including his personal best 199. To top the season off, he ended 2020 with 8 consecutive tons to average 135 over the season’s final 8 matches. Over this stretch of games, he was the top ranked SuperCOach midfielder in the game
Earlier in the preseason, he was featured in the 50 Most Relevant. You can read the full article and listen to the podcast here.
Josh Kelly’s SuperCoach average of 114.5 consisted of 10 tons, 5 of them over 120, including that 195 against Richmond. On top of this high ceiling is a strong scoring floor with just one score under 80 all year.
Kelly’s scoring consistency is elite over the previous four seasons, where he’s averaged 113+. The concern isn’t around his scoring potential. The query is around games played. While those concerns are valid (and we’ll talk about them soon), he is in the rare territory of midfield premiums that has shown multiple years, averaging well over 110 in the past three seasons.
Earlier in the preseason, he was featured in the 50 Most Relevant. You can read the full article and listen to the podcast here.
In SuperCoach over the first three weeks, Matt Crouch was averaging 88. However, over the final 13 games, he averaged 115 including 10 tons, five of them over 120 including a career high 162. After the home and away season he ended the year averaging 110 and having just two scores under 90 all year.
It wasn’t just his fantasy output that took a dramatic turn, but it was also his workrate off the ball and defensive efforts. In his first 102 games of AFL, only in 2 matches, he returned a tackle count of 10 tackles or more. However, in two of his final five matches this year, he handed out a 12 in one game and 14 tackles in another. Easily the two highest of his career.
Earlier in the preseason, he was featured in the 50 Most Relevant. You can read the full article and listen to the podcast here.
Stephen Coniglio | $528,900 Average 98 | 2% Ownership
History suggests that Stephen Coniglio is a regular 105+ midfielder. As the skipper for the club for his second season, he’s no doubt striving to get himself and his Giants back into the league’s top echelon.
Even in a ‘poor’ 2020 season, he still managed 9 tons, including a season high 141 against the Lions. The season prior, he joined the elite company of scoring over 200. He did this in round 11 against the Gold Coast Suns with a 207. Across the season, he had nine tons and four over 130.
Reilly O’Brien | $570,800 Average 106 | 6% Ownership
In SuperCoach Reilly O’Brien ranked as the 20th best performer across the competition for averages and total points. He averaged 106 across the year; it included 9 tons, 4 of which were over 120 and he dipped his scoring below 82 in just one match all year.
O’Brien is the only ruck that can challenge Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy for the top two mantle. Why? Not just because of his obvious scoring capacity, but because he has the least ‘internal’ challenges or challengers to overcome.
Earlier in the preseason, he was featured in the 50 Most Relevant. You can read the full article and listen to the podcast here.
For SuperCoach, Dayne Zorko averaged 98 across the year, posted 8 tons and showcased his scoring ceiling, with two of those tons being over 120. It was a slower start to the year for Zorko, but after returning from injury in round 6, he averaged 105 across the formats for the remaining 12 games.
If you were to contrast his 2020 scores amongst currently available forward, then in SuperCoach, he’s ranked 7th for total points and 8th for averages.
Earlier in the preseason, he was featured in the 50 Most Relevant. You can read the full article and listen to the podcast here.
Already ranked as the 11th most expensive forward, Zak Butters likely develops into a top 10 forward this year. In 2020 he had 6 tons, including a 124 and a 125.
What hurts his scoring last year is that he is still prone to the odd stinker. Last year he had 2 games where he scored under 40. If he can raise that scoring floor to be consistently 60+ for bad games, then he’ll be a legitimate top tier consideration.
Jordan Ridley | $547,700 Average 102 | 7% Ownership
Last season Jordan Ridley averaged 18 disposals 6 marks, 4 rebound 50’s and went at an elite 87 disposal efficiency. He ranked 2nd for effective disposals per game across the league, 6th for total marks per game and ranked 16th for total rebound ’50s.
His SuperCoach season saw a total increased of 35 points per game from his 2019 average. During the 2020 season, he averaged 101, had ten scores over 100, four over 120 and dipped below 70 in just one game. He ended the season ranked fifth for total points and seventh by the average for all defenders.
Earlier in the preseason, he was featured in the 50 Most Relevant. You can read the full article and listen to the podcast here.
Nick Haynes averaged 90.8 from 11 games when playing with Zac Williams. In the 6 games he played without him, he averaged 112.2. Across the whole season, he scored 9 tons, including a 148 and a 139.
We now have genuine question marks over a few core defender. Will Lachie Whitfield will be fit round one? Does the MID/FWD role split of Zac Williams be favourable or not to scoring? What makes him even better is the fitness of key defenders Sam Taylor and Phil Davis. With both these talls playing, it frees Haynes to play the pure intercept and peel of role.
12 months ago, Sam Docherty was one of the hottest names across fantasy football. After 5 rounds, he was averaging 121 in SuperCoach. With news of an injury setback to Nic Newman and Zac Williams playing more of a MID/FWD role, ‘Doc’ looks primed to dominate possession across half-back again.
Success in your draft league isn’t normally found in the opening handful of rounds. Rather it’s where coaches discover diamonds in the rough towards the end of the draft. As draft day approaches for coaches, I decided to share who I think are every AFL clubs best UltimateFooty sliders
One of the biggest positive things that came from the 2020 season for Adelaide was Lachie Sholl’s emergence. He offers two key quality traits that the Adelaide midfield has been crying out for. That being outside speed and classy ball use by foot.
His round 17 performance against Carlton last season was a nice sampler of his potential. He had 24 possessions, 2 goals and scored an 89 ( 111 adjusted) in UltimateFooty.
In the preseason, he has won the Crows time trial and the coaching staff has been desperate to get him playing across the wing. As a defensive eligible option, hoping for an average of 75+ isn’t out of the equation.
Joe Daniher | ADP 204
It’s a theme that you’ll see across these sliders. Forwards suck, so I’m seeing if can we get some late potential value rather than burning an early pick. Joe Daniher has had a faultless preseason and is seemingly finally getting the best out of his body. His 2017 season averaging 84.7 is a long time ago now, but it does highlight his scoring potential.
Normally picks beyond 200 are just purely speculative picks with an upside that often end up back in the player pool. So given his proven performance, it’s well worth a late pick.
I wrote about Joe Daniher earlier in the preseason. Read his article from the 50 Most Relevant here.
Will Setterfield | ADP 182
How a player ends a season can be a great indicator of how the coming season will track. And for those who draft Will Setterfield this season, they’ll be hoping that this is true. Last year his season average of 67 (83 adjusted) was fine, but it’s his final 7 games that would have coaches interested.
Between round 11 til seasons end he scored 77 (96), 70 (87), 92 (115), 91(113), 54 (67), 86 (107) and 93 (116). That’s a seven game average of 80 (100 adjusted.) You’ll take scoring like that in the middle of the draft, let alone this late.
Isaac Quaynor | ADP 179
Despite only playing 11 games of AFL footy, Isaac Quaynor has started to show promising signs. Both as a rebounding defender and as a fantasy footballer.
In round 14 against Carlton, he had 20 possessions, 5 marks, 5 tackles, and 84 (105 adjusted) in UltimateFooty. A fortnight later, against the Suns, delivered a 76 (95 adjusted).
It’s a small sample size, but the upside is there. Plus, Collingwood have always been a highly relevant and high scoring fantasy side.
Dyson Heppell | ADP 195
Don’t expect a return to the 100+ averages from Dyson Heppell. 2018 was the last time he delivered numbers that high, and while it’s not that long ago, alot has happened in those 2 seasons. Both on the injury front, and the players added to the Bombers midfield unit
Rather, the big potential value in Dyson is around an impending DPP allocation. In the offseason, Heppell has been training with the defenders, and the club wants the ball in his hands rebounding out of the defensive 50. If he picks up this allocation, he moves from being just ‘bench cover’ as a 75-85 midfielder to being an on-field D3/D4.
I wrote about Dyson Heppell earlier in the preseason. Read his article from the 50 Most Relevant here.
Hayden Young | ADP 242
5 games of AFL is a super small sample size, but in round 4 & 5 last year, Hayden Young owners would’ve spotted something special. His booming left boot returned scored 77 (96 adjusted) and 58 (72).
The dockers loved getting the ball in his hands and allowing him to set up the play with pinpoint precision. I think he’ll take another step towards fulfilling his fantasy potential, which will ultimately culminate in him being a long term premium for us in time.
Shaun Higgins | ADP 145
If your draft league has positional changes on, then Shaun Higgins is a must consider. His move to Geelong has him earmarked for the forward role previously held down by Gary Ablett.
At best, he gains a MID/FWD DPP and averages in the ’80s, making him a strong F2. At worst, he maintains a heavy midfield role, and he averages 90+. You really can’t lose.
Noah Anderson | ADP 197
It’s a rare talent that can bust out of the second year Blues. But it wouldn’t shock me at all to see Noah Anderson join the club and do it. In his final 4 games of the year, he averaged 71.5 (89 adjusted). Noah possesses both a damaging inside and outside game which makes him a perfect fantasy performer. He might not pop in 2021, but he’s as good a chance as anyone at a second year breakout.
Isaac Cumming | ADP 207
You could probably put Lachie Ash in this spot too. If you get the chance to handcuff them together, it should increase the pick delivery chances.
The GWS Giants defensive unit has undergone an offseason overhaul, with Heath Shaw, Aiden Corr and Zac Williams departing the club. This opens up plenty of opportunities for the talented youngster. Isaac uses the ball well by hand and foot & has a high footy IQ. Certainly someone with upside late in a draft.
Liam Shiels | ADP 205
I’m all for looking for ‘upside’ late in drafts, but sometimes in the hunt for the one in a thousand breakouts (aka Luke McDonald), we ignore other solid options. Liam Shiels has been a consistent performer over numerous seasons and has also shown that he can punch out some tasty tons in the right match.
Last seasons 67.7 average (84 adjusted) isn’t horrid. While the three seasons prior, he averaged 91, 97 & 95. Getting potential numbers like that in the 20th round of a draft is a steal. He’s certainly worth the pick as some bench depth, if nothing else.
James Harmes | ADP 160
As each day passes, the earlier it seems James Harmes is going in drafts. Why? Because the experiment of him playing in the backline is over. And the club has confirmed that he’ll return to the midfield. Just 12 months ago, he was coming off a 2019 season wherein the midfield her averaged 94. If he delivers numbers like that, he’s a genuine D1 and getting picked up in drafts at a position of a D5.
Luke Davies-Uniacke | ADP 193
As a junior, Luke Davies-Uniacke drew comparisons to Carlton and West Coast champion Chris Judd. Sadly, injuries haven’t been kind over the past few seasons to the former first round pick.
Now fit, he’s finally firing and ready to establish himself in the North midfield. LDU is an explosive midfielder and has elite stoppage traits. If it all clicks for him, he can push an average of 85-95.
Xavier Duursma | ADP 253
All the preseason hype is head towards both Zak Butters and Connor Rozee. And understandably so. However, I think coaches forget about the scoring potential of Xavier Duursma. In his second AFL game, he scored 102, and across the remainder of his debut season, he scored another ton plus an additional four scores between 90-99.
The third year breakout rule is in effect for the archer, and given his ADP, the potential upside is insane. He goes from being possible last selected players, to being an on field midfielder.
Toby Nankervis | ADP 169
The knee injury to Ivan Soldo means the Tigers will likely leave Toby Nankervis as a sole ruck for the season, with various talls playing a supporting role. In 2017 & 2018, when the Tigers adopted this strategy, Toby averaged 86 & 89 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 88 & 98 in SuperCoach.
If you choose or are unable to get one of Brodie Grundy, Reilly O’Brien or Max Gawn in your draft, then getting Nank as a late pickup is a handy target.
Sebastian Ross | ADP 221
All it takes is for a couple of injuries in the St Kilda side, and the relevance of Seb Ross will bolt. While you’d never wish injuries on anyone, the Saints have their fair share of ‘injury prone’ midfielders. Recruit Brad Crouch and Dan Hannebery have missed plenty of footy over the last 3 seasons. Should either miss big chunks of this season, then Seb could well get pushed back into a core midfield role.
Between 2016-2019 he averaged 98, 102, 107 & 94. At this point of the draft, where he’s basically last picked in your team, there is now risk. And he doesn’t just have ‘potential’; he’s a proven performer. When looking for upside, the ‘proven’ is a better pick than the ‘potential’ scorer.
Lance Franklin | ADP 214
Are you a forward? And do you have the potential to score over 80? If so, coaches will consider you on draft day! The scoring history of Lance Franklin even at 1,000 years old isn’t the concern. Rather it’s on his durability. But at this point of the draft, it’s all upside.
I wrote about Lance Franklin earlier in the preseason. Read his article from the 50 Most Relevant here.
Luke Shuey | ADP 122
It isn’t a ‘flashy’ pick, nor is ita drastically ‘late’ pick. But given what Luke Shuey can do, it’d be a great get to get him even at his ADP on draft day. Before 2020, Luke was an incredibly durable player, and his scoring consistency was incredibly reliable.
Between 2015-2019 he missed just 6 games and averaged 93, 94, 99, 98, 87 & 101. You can put down his poor scoring of last year due to a few injury niggles and nothing more. A fit Shuey will become one of the best picks on the draft day given his return at this point in a draft.
Mitch Wallis | ADP 221
Thin pickings here, most dogs you want OK, draft coaches, you know it, but the forward stocks in 2021 suck. So it’s players with job security and scoring potential that can pop that we’re looking at later in the draft. The Bulldogs new Vice-Captain Mitch Wallis won’t get any midfield time, but he’s safely inside the Dogs best. However, because so much of his scoring is based on tackles and goals, if the Doggies can dominate the inside 50 game, he should turn in several 70-90+ scoring games.
Every season after I conclude the 50 Most Relevant, we love to look back at some of the unlucky players to miss the countdown. Here are 10 Players Who Missed The 50 Most Relevant
12 months ago, Sam Docherty was one of the hottest names across fantasy football. After 5 rounds, he was averaging 121 in SuperCoach an adjusted 117 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. His remaining 11 games got nowhere near this level, but it’s a reminder of his high scoring capacity. Was that due to role? The Carlton game style? Or just a natural regression as his body fatigued under a full season of condensed footy? Perhaps it’s a combination of a few of those elements.
With Adam Saad’s addition and the injury returning Nic Newman, we could see less opposition attention and great freedom of role to allow the Blues co-captain to flourish once again for 2021. If the planets align, he’s a genuine top 3 candidate in our defensive line.
Andrew Gaff
He’s more an AFLFantasy & DreamTeam selection than SuperCoach, but Andrew Gaff is one of the safest premiums going round. He regularly plays 20+ games every season and in DT/AF has been averaging 110 consistently.
The knock on him is probably his lack of ceiling, making him not a reliable captain option. But with that said, Gaff will thrive in return to full length matches.
Coming off a career high SuperCoach average of 109 and an adjusted equivalent of 114 in AFLFantasy, Taylor Adams is no scoring slouch. But we’ve known that for seasons. Back in 2017, he averaged 114 in AFLFantasy and 107 in SuperCoach. So even without the departure of Adam Treloar, ‘TayTay’ has shown he can score
The issue has always been around his ability to play 20+ games. If he can do that again, he’ll be back up towards the top scoring midfielders in 2021.
Jaidyn Stephenson
The highly talented junior fell out of favour at Collingwood last year. And when Jaidyn Stephenson had the opportunity to bail out, he took it and headed straight to Arden Street.
In Collingwood’s Grand Final season of 2019, he averaged 80 across the formats. Not bad for a player who was predominantly used inside forward 50.
At North, the club has been vocal about their desire to play him through the midfield. Generally, when we get a forward eligible option, who’s playing in the midfield, that often turns into a good thing.
Maybe it’s a story of 12 months too early for Isaac Cumming being a key part of our fantasy football sides. The GWS Giants defensive unit has undergone an offseason overhaul, with Heath Shaw, Aiden Corr and Zac Williams departing the club. This opens up plenty of opportunities for the talented youngster.
Given the genuine question marks around cash cows, spending up that bit extra for his likely job security isn’t the worst idea if he shows scoring promise in the AAMI community series.
In a season where rookie security is looking even thinner than ever, North Melbourne’s Will Phillips might be worth paying the cash for. In 2019, Phillips averaged 22.1 disposals across his 10 NAB League matches and showed his class in the contest. Don’t expect Matt Rowellor Sam Walsh style fantasy scores, but he should be handy regardless.
Stephen Coniglio
Like Sam Docherty listed higher, Stephen Coniglio was one of the most popular starting squad options for 2020. However, he delivered a poor season by his lofty standards, including seeing the club drop him.
History suggests that ‘Cogs’ is a regular 105-110 midfielder across all the formats. And as the skipper for the club for his second season, he’s no doubt striving to get himself and his Giants back into the league’s top echelon.
Sometimes our recency bias makes us not consider the obvious jet standing right in front of us. Perhaps ‘Cogs’ will be the one that got away from fantasy coaches in 2021 who were too proud to consider him.
The injury news of Rowan Marshall and Braydon Preuss has left fantasy coaches scrambling for a second ruck. For those not able to afford a ‘set and forget’ strategy, then ‘Nank’ is one of the better options.
The knee injury to Ivan Soldo means the Tigers will likely stay him as a sole ruck for the season, with various talls playing a supporting role. In 2017 & 2018, when the Tigers adopted this strategy, Toby averaged 86 & 89 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 88 & 98 in SuperCoach.
Last year in the semi, preliminary and Grand Final, he had a three game average of 134 in SuperCoach and 79 (98 adjusted) in AFLFantasy. If he starts the season like that, it’ll be an inspired selection.
In the opening three games of the year, the Tigers play Carlton (Pittonet /De Koning), Hawthorn (Ceglar/McEvoy) and Sydney (Sinclair/Hickey). It’s hardly a daunting three weeks.
Nakia Cockatoo
Pretty simple. He’s cheap, he’s got DPP and is currently injury free. If he’s named round one, he’ll be the most popular rookie priced player in starting squads.
The departure of Adam Treloar has opened up some midfield minutes in the Collingwood side. Jordan De Goey has shown that when he’s allowed to attend centre bounces and play through the midfield that he’s one of the most explosive and dominant options in the game. A lack of endurance and also Collingwood’s need for goals have kept him often playing forward
All track watchers have spoken about his dominant preseason, and the club has spoken publicly about giving him a greater midfield presence. If he can get over his slight preseason injury setback, then he could be 2021’s version of Christian Petracca.
Want to know what Rids AFLFantasy side looks like? Wonder no more! Here it is.
DEFENDERS
Lloyd – I don’t know how I get him if I don’t start with him. A hard year to try and plan upgrades as there is a lot of variables.
Docherty – he is value all day. Hoping the attention, he was getting last year will disappear with the arrivals of Saad and Williams.
Williams – midfield time and a new club. Hard to pass. Injury history a serious concern.
Milera – Just like Williams & Young. Right club. Right price. Adds depth to a thin backline.
Rooks pick themselves based on rd 1 teams.
MIDFIELD
Merrett – nice early draw. Captain option in the mids where reliable premiums are hard to predict.
Walsh – more inside this year = more pts
Simpkin – huge preseason and one to keep a sneaky eye on. Has put on size. He tired last year due to the hectic schedule of games and being young. Will improve again.
Sloane + Hately – bang for buck. 170ish pts for an outlay of a little over a mill.
Rooks – whatever is named rd 1 will start
RUCK
Going a little different now Preuss is injured.
ROB – will improve again with another preseason. He tries hard which I love.
Goldy – the love-hate relationship will continue in 2021. Preuss replacement. Good early draw and much cheaper than Gawn and Grundy.
Forward
Danger – could be any of the 3 D’s at this stage – Danger Dunkley Dusty. I would rather start Sidey but strapped for cash. It feels like a little building a house of sticks…
Phillips – new club and back to the wing.
Rozee – will be Rozee or Caldwell. A lot will depend on Caldwell and how he looks in the preseason game.
Hind + Cahill – def spots open at the Bombers. Both Hind and Cahill have new roles to fill those gaps.
Over the past few seasons, Jake Lloyd has been one of the most prolific and dominant fantasy football options. Across the AFL, he ranked first for effective disposals and kicks per game. He was also in the top 5 for both rebound ’50s and metres gained, while also being ranked 11th for intercepts per game.
From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he finished the season as the clear top ranked defender for averages and total points. He averaged 91.4 (114 adjusted) and scored 6 tons, 8 additional scores between 80-99 and had just three scores below 80 all season. Don’t forget, an 80 in these formats last year was the equivalent of a 100 due to the shortened game time.
I mentioned that Lloyd was the best defender, but he was miles ahead of the pack in reality. He was 87 points ahead of Lachie Whitfield, ranked 2nd for total points, and 196 ahead of 3rd placed Rory Laird. Across all lines, Jake ranked 4th overall for total points. In 2020 he scored more than Brodie Grundy, Jack Steele, Zach Merrett & Jackson Macrae. Finally, he ranked 8th for averages, but in reality, it’s 7th when removing the one game wonder Luke Dunstan.
For SuperCoach, he averaged 122 from his 17 games. He scored 16 tons, 9 over 120, and a massive 4 over 140. He had just one sub 100 scores (73) all year. That came in round one against the Crows. From that point on, he scored 16 consecutive tons to end the season. No other player last year achieved that.
He was so dominant as a defender last year; he scored 253 points ahead of Luke Ryan (ranked second2nd) and 290 ahead of third place (Laird). Keep in mind; all three players played 17 games. Lloyd ranked 4th overall for total points and was one of only 6 players to score over 2000 points. He ranked 5th for averages, with only Max Gawn, Lachie Neale, Jack Steele and Clayton Oliver averaging higher
2020 was a career year, but he’s been a dominant scoring premium across all formats for years.
In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he finished the 2019 season as the number one averaging and top-scoring defender clear of second place (Jack Crisp) by over 200 points. He ended up as the 18th best for total points across all lines. Across 2019 he posted 14 tons, 8 of those he converted into scores over 120 and finished the year averaging 107. And in only two matches did he fail to score over 80.
His scoring was even stronger in SuperCoach with him ranked as the top averaging and total points scorer among all defenders. His nearest rival Tom Stewart, was almost 250 points behind. Through the 2019 season, he scored 16 tons and between round 1-14 he had just one score that wasn’t in triple figures. Of these tons, seven were above 120, and he went on to average 109 for the season. During the season he had just one score below 80 where he was tagged to a score of 62 against the Gold Coast Suns.
To go with his scoring ceiling and strong basement, he’s incredibly durable, having missed one game since 2016.
When you fork out this much cash in your starting squad, they need to be someone you could place the captaincy on. And Jake Lloyd has proven over the last 12 months that he’s a genuine captaincy option.
Alot needs to go right for any other defender to be able to match it with Lloyd, and that’s even if he regresses to his 2019 season scores. A 110 defender isn’t something you want to mess about with and miss. I believe it’s only Rory Laird with his midfield move and a fully fit Lachie Whitfield capable of matching, let alone surpassing him.
The extension of the man on the mark rule only further creates opportunities for Lloyd to play on from kick outs. Already he has a monopoly on that function at the Swans and should maintain that scoring consistency.
Some coaches might hope that they can grab him cheaper if he has a slow start. And while that ‘could’ happen, how much cash do you expect to save? And will you have generated the income by that time to be able to afford him?
Now and then, we get a premium that’s been so good for so long that it’s just easier to find a way to get them into our starting squad than have some in season headache trying to figure it all out.
Jake Lloyd has a banging early fixture. In round one, the Swans play Brisbane. In 2020 they were one of the most inaccurate teams in front of goal. Should that trend continue, he’ll pick up plenty of kick in duties. In round 2, they play the Crows; last year, they were responsible for his lowest score. However, across the year, the Crows were the easiest team to score against.
Round 3 is Richmond; draft coaches and daily fantasy players will know that defenders score massive against the Tigers. Over the first 8 games, the only opponent I’m worried about is Geelong in round 7, but by then, the damage could be done for non-owners.
I’m starting him everywhere. I don’t want the pain of missing him for any length of time.
DRAFT DECISION
I believe Jake Lloyd is the safest and best defender across the formats and as such he’s going early in drafts of all formats. It’s not uncommon to see him taken in mock drafts as a top 5 selection in first-round selection. And to be honest, it’s fair. He’s a point scoring machine.
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For the past three seasons, Max Gawn has reigned supreme as one of the best players across all game formats. Entering into 2021, I see little reasons why this might change.
PLAYER PROFILE
Name: Max Gawn Age: 29 Club: Melbourne Demons Position: Ruck
2020 Highest Score: 131 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy) 185 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)
Career Highest Score: 154 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019) 212 Vs North Melbourne | SuperCoach (2019)
He’s proven that he’s a scoring beast and 2020 was no different for Max Gawn for multiple years. For the 14 games, he played he was one of only a handful of players that were ultimately season defining selections.
In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 98.9 (123 adjusted) for the season. It included 7 tons, 2 of which were over 120 and an additional 5 scores between 80 and 99. Due to the shorter quarters, scores of 80 were considered an equivalent 100 of previous seasons. Meaning 12 of his 14 games met that scoring threshold.
If you remove Luke Dunstan’s one game average of 100, then he’s the clear #1 ranked player in these formats by averages. As good as his season was in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam, Gawn has always excelled more in SuperCoach.
Last season in that format he averaged a career high of 139.9. To put that in a perspective hall of fame SuperCoach players Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury has never averaged over 130, Tom Rockliff’s revered 2014 was an average of 131. It’s really only Gary Ablett that has a higher historical SuperCoach average than him.
2020 consisted of 12 tons, 11 of them over 120, 7 over in 150 and his lowest score of the year was 87. He ranked first across the league by average and is ranked 17 points per game ahead of Jack Steele, ranked third. Despite missing three games, he still ranked 9th for overall SuperCoach points and scored more thanPatrick Dangerfield and Tom Mitchell.
Ranked #1 for AVG’s – 17ppg ahead of the third ranked player (Steele) Ranked 9th for total points – played 3 less games. Scored more than Dangerfield, Mitchell
Across his 2019 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season, he ended the year as the sixth-highest averaging player overall lines and was the clear #2 ranked and averaging ruck. From a seasonal average of 111, was made up of 16 scores of 100 or more, nine of those he converted into 120+ and he had one match where he scored over 150. Across the 21 games, he had only two where his scores dipped below 80. In one of those games, he severely hurt his ankle and spent the majority of the second term on the bench receiving treatment.
In SuperCoach he finished the year as the second-highest averaging player and ranked fifth for total points. Last year he scored 18 tons, 13 of them were above 120 and a ridiculous four scores over 150. That included his 212 against North Melbourne in the final round of the year.
To go with this high scoring basement and the nearly unmatched ceiling is historical durability. Even though he missed three games this season with a PCL, he’s missed just 4 games over the last 3 seasons. Given what we’ll need to pay to get him, you want some security that he’ll play. Based on his recent history, you can have confidence in his availability.
If you want to own Max Gawn this season, then it’s going to create a sizeable dent in your starting salary cap. He’s the most expensive player in all formats of the game.
Last season was a sizeable scoring jump across all formats in contrast to his previous two seasons. In 2018 & 2019 his averages were comparable to each other. Now 2020 has a jump of 12 points per game (adjusted) in AFLFantasy and SuperCoach. Because of the condensed style of scoring across formats, some might believe that to pick Gawn in starting squads your actually overpaying.
That’s certainly an argument I’d be open to hearing, as it’s one of the few reasons to justify not finding a way to start him. The challenge is, should he have a strong opening 4-5 weeks and holds his average, which is entirely possible. Any hope of getting him cheap is gone. And even if he scores under, can you generate the cash required early to get him at this bottomed out price?
For the record, his opening five games are against Fremantle (Darcy/Lobb), St Kilda (Ryder), GWS (Mumford/Flynn), Geelong (Stanley) & Hawthorn (Ceglar/McEvoy).
One of the primary reasons I’d avoid challenging a coach who passes on Gawn is because of how they choose to spread their cash. For example, if starting Brodie Grundy or Reilly O’Brien over him, it gave you the cash to move Matt Rowell into a Josh Kelly type. In an overall picture, you can argue you find yourself in a comparable or better position.
I’m removing any of the potential risks of not getting him in for SuperCoach by staring with him. This over the other 2 formats is the one I find it hardest not to justify outlaying the cash.
In AFLFantasy given his price point and the potential challenge of leaving yourself too ‘rookie heavy’ on the field, for me, it’s hard to start him. But if it worked for someone else’s structure, I wouldn’t argue the selection.
Similarly in DreamTeam, chances are you want him in your completed side by seasons end, if you don’t start with him. Devise a plan that enables you to get him sooner than later. The longer you go without him, that harder it might be to succeed.
DRAFT DECISION
If you hope to own Max Gawn this season in drafts, you’ll need one of the first picks in the draft. He’s a genuine #1 pick candidate and won’t slide past the 3rd overall selection. He’s been too good, for too long to go outside the top 5.
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Do you believe he is fantasy relevant? Will you be starting with him? Have your say at our Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.
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