The preseason has barely just begun yet AFL Fantasy have us, but not our families, a favour. The release of the format for the 2024 season has thrown not just one but many cats amongst the pigeons, with early bye rounds, best 18’s, and potentially huge price changes all in consideration for the early part of the season. With that said, it is important to balance selections for players, particularly premiums, who don’t have the early bye.
Tom Stewart comes in as the equal 7th most expensive defender yet presents more value than might meet the eye. He had an injury affected 2023 which is reflected in his price and might sting those who started him in the most recent season, but the early fixture might be too good to pass up. He faces notably friendly teams for defenders in St. Kilda and Western Bulldogs in the first four rounds and has a stake on being a top 6 defender for 2024.
Another two who have the ability to push into contention are Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Hayden Young. Both of these young guns have shown a reliably high floor and should benefit from role changes which increased their scoring in the back half of 2023.
Keidean Coleman is another who comes in underpriced based on his potential. His injured affected 2023 has in come in mid-priced, yet a potential 85+ season could be on the cards. He is also one you could look to trade into at round 3 given his bye in round 2.
Rounding out the back 6 are Heath Chapman and Zac Williams. These two both played minimal football in 2023 due to injuries, but I believe they both have a spot in their sides respective best 22. Chapman should have a spot either on the wing or half back flank available to him, while Williams only needs to be within 20 points of his 2019 season to present enormous value for coaches. Rounding out the bench is Arie Schoenmaker and Toby Pink, both players who should see time for their sides in 2024.
This is where the fun begins. The midfield is shaping up to be the line that presents the most variety for coaches to pick from. Andrew Brayshaw, Rory Laird, and Zak Butters were all amongst the top scorers in 2023 and should benefit massively from their fixtures. All three have a bye which coaches can benefit from and don’t miss early fixtures. Combined with them having VC/C potential most weeks, I feel that coaches might have to spend up for this season in order to ensure that they don’t fall behind early.
Next up we have Luke Davies-Uniacke and Sam Walsh. These two young guns have both shown they can match it with the best and have injury affected scores baked into their price. Should they have a fit and firing preseason, I would be hard pressed to not start them.
Lastly, we have the rookies. I have snuck Daniel Curtin into M8 using some DPP which should help provide some flexibility in the early rounds, whilst Colby McKercher and Ryley Sanders both possess enough junior pedigree that, should they be named round 1, they both should be on your field. Rounding out the bench is Jeremy Sharp, Jhye Clark, and Clay Hall. Much like most rookies at this stage of the season, we are picking based on names and the potential for a round 1 spot. I do like spending up on some rookies to allow for flexibility come round 1.
This is the line where I am the most settled despite how early in the preseason we are. Brodie Grundy moving from Collingwood to the Swans opens him up to the number one ruck spot once again. At his value, he feels to be the biggest “no-brainer” pick at this stage.
I have paired him with Tristan Xerri, another one that coaches who started with last season may feel some aggrievances towards. Todd Goldstein moving to Essendon means that he should have a lock on the ruck spot. I’ve chosen to handcuff him with Hamish Free at this stage, but should we have any cheap ruck named round 1 they will end up there.
Up until earlier this week, the F1 spot was one of the hardest to fill. With the news of an ACL for Bailey Smith, I have decided to put Jack Macrae into this position for now. He should be able to at least match his performance from 2023, with potential upside on the cards.
Next come a pair of cheaper forwards who present value due to a change in club in Taylor Adams and Zac Fisher. Both should be able to move into reasonable roles in their new sides and Fisher should, come round 7, pick up DPP and open up additional flexibility in our squads.
Elijah Tsatas worked his way into the Essendon team after injuries kept him away from an early debut and he didn’t disappoint. Another preseason under his belt should help stake him claim for a role with centre bounce rotations.
Finlay Macrae comes in at just over rookie priced with plenty of pedigree of scoring from junior numbers. Should he cement a B22 in the reigning premiers’ side, he will be sitting at F5 for most teams alongside the #1 draft pick from 2023, Harley Reid. I’m not massively interested in him as a pick at this stage, but his ownership should mitigate any risk in picking him. Lastly, Shaun Mannagh and Chris Burgess are more placeholders at this stage, much like the rookies selected in my defensive line.
So, what do you think? I feel like the overall structure of teams for the 2024 season will be significantly different to how most teams lined up for round 1 of 2023. I always strive to play each season on its’ merits and there is plenty to play out between now and the first bounce of round 1.
The final game from the preseason saw two highly relevant fantasy teams face off at Casey Fields. The game was fairly uncontested, with dominant in the game, notably in the first half.
Max Gawn
The Ruckman was back to his dominant best, registering a massive first half in which he kicked three goals. He then played a little more down to earth in the second half, with he and Grundy sharing the ruck load. This game exemplifies the likely splits they will have but Gawn has shown they could still score well despite this.
Brodie Grundy
The other half of Gawndy also kicked three goals in the first half but was far less dominant around the ground. It is going to be tough to know which of the two will get the dominant ruck share each week but DPP might be on the cards for one or both of them early in the season.
Clayton Oliver
Oliver has shown yet again that he will remain a top end premium across the formats. He coasted through much of the game yet still had class and skills that exceeded most on the field. A player that once again we will want to own in 2023.
Christian Petracca
Much like his partner in crime, Petracca looked a cut above the rest in this game. Petracca split his time between midfield and forward duties and got his hand on the ball all over the ground. Still a genuine premium option for us across the formats.
Angus Brayshaw
Brayshaw came back down to earth after his seagull-like behaviour last week, despite having a near identical role. He worked his way back into the game in the second half and looked better as the game went on. Tempers may have cooled on him, but he still has the ability to pop a massive score when he is on.
Kyle Chandler
A rookie priced player for us in 2023, Chandler slotted into the Demons side well. 1.3 on the day showed he had plenty of opportunities and he is one to monitor for a bench spot come Round 1.
Tim Taranto
Taranto coasted in second gear yet managed to get his hand on the ball 33 times. High CBA usage, marks around the ground, and a willingness to hunt the ball was all we needed to see from Tim this week and he showed it in spades. Definitely one to consider for starting squads.
Jacob Hopper
Hopper saw the highest CBA usage of any Tigers player this week and managed to get his hands on it plenty, but was used more of an extractor. He played a very inside game which we should expect again come round 1, but with the free-flowing nature of preseason games I expect his scoring output to be higher than what we saw this week.
Samson Ryan
Ryan came onto the field in the last quarter and scored well in the process. As a near-basement rookie with R/F status, he should be in consideration if named round 1.
The Giants and the Suns kicked off the last day of practice matches for us. In a relatively high-scoring affair, the Giants took their foot off the gas in the second half and cruised comfortably towards round 1.
Kelly was used exclusively through the midfield for the Giants and looked good in doing so, finding plenty of space. Didn’t go as hard as he could’ve, and if you were hot before then, there are no red flags as to starting the Rolls Royce himself. Maybe MJ should’ve put him in the 50…
Isaac Cumming
Cumming had a ton of the ball in the middle portion of the game, getting involved in plenty of switching and providing run and carry off the half-back line. As a defender premium who has gone under the radar, Cumming has put himself firmly into conversations around being near the top of his line.
Tom Green
The kid is just a contested bull. Green gets in and under at every opportunity he can and works hard the entire time. Exclusive midfield usage and looked good in the process. Big ticks for him.
Stephen Coniglio
He was one of the four who got heavy CBA rotation for the Giants, but he was certainly outshone by both Green and Kelly. Coniglio was pushing forward off stoppages, finding himself in a ‘no mans land’ at times. Certainly some red flags there now, especially with the plethora of Forward premiums in our consideration for round 1.
Lachie Whitfield
The Whitfield of old was back, sweeping off the back of stoppages and finding plenty of the ball. Was one of the most impressive Giants in the first half before slowing down in the second as they used other players in a similar role. Whitfield is all but guaranteed DPP in round 6, but can he be started in our midfields and ran until then?
Finn Callaghan
Callaghan didn’t see any CBAs but that didn’t stop his ability to rack up the ball. He was clearly one of the better players for the Giants on the wing during the game, finding his way into stoppages after the initial centre bounces. At his price tag there is plenty to like.
Witts just eased his way into Round 1 with a hit out in this game, resting most of the fourth quarter. He looked solid matched up against Preuss and moved well. With the ruck carnage around, Witts could be a stable option for us to start the season.
Noah Anderson
Anderson was quiet but was another who didn’t need to do much. He only really played in the first three quarters and had low time on ground. One who could still have a great 2023, but nothing can be taken from this game regarding Noah.
Charlie Constable
Constable played off of half back and managed to get plenty of ball. He took kick outs and got involved with the ball movement out of defence for the Suns. At his price, should he be selected for round 1 he should be an easy decision.
No Touk Miller and a decreased prominence of Anderson meant Flanders was the big beneficiary. Worked around the ground well and got into the right spots. He will be a phenomenal player; he just needs the doors to open for him.
Ben King
Played only the first half of the game as part of a managed load. Had one goal but didn’t do too much to impress. He fits in as a ‘break glass in case of emergency’ option.
Fremantle and Port Adelaide battled it out at Fremantle Oval on Thursday night in conditions which had sunshine, rain, and the Fremantle Doctor pumping out some serious wind. As always, these factors need to be considered when trying to draw conclusions from players scores.
Andrew Brayshaw
Brayshaw continued where finished last season and looked phenomenal. He had a great build throughout the game and with Fremantle keeping their tight midfield mix he will continue to score. Just an outright jet of a player and certainly one to consider for your round 1 teams.
Caleb Serong
Another staple of the midfield mix, Serong was another who impressed me. However, he couldn’t find as much space as his counterpart during the game. He could be one who jumps out of the gate early with the relatively easy start the Dockers have in 2023, but the competition at his price point is there.
Sean Darcy
No Jackson, no worries. Darcy looks leaner and fitter as he worked the Port Adelaide ruckmen around the ground with 38 hit-outs. Most impressively, he had 8 tackles and 4 marks. If he continues to put up similar numbers to these with Jackson in the team, he could be a sneaky premium Ruck option.
Hayden Young
For those who were unimpressed by Young last week, the game this week didn’t do much to alleviate those concerns. Young struggled to get much ball expect for in the 3rd where he got a lot more involved. I don’t have as much concerns as others though and believe this is just a blip based on conditions, matchups, and team structure. Still one to strongly consider for starting squads.
Nat Fyfe
Fyfe played out of the goal square for the majority of the game and didn’t look out of place. He kicked a goal in each of the first three quarters and showed his aerial abilities. You could do worse for a cheap option in SuperCoach and Dream Team, but there is no midfield time there for him in 2023 unless an injury occurs to one of the core four.
Liam Henry
With wing spots vacant for Fremantle, Henry put his hand up to be in the frame for a round 1 spot. His hard work impressed me as he ran on the outside wing, dropping right back when the ball was switched. Fremantle wings have scored decently in the past so I wouldn’t be crossing his name off quite yet.
Sam Sturt
Another 200k FWD rookie who could see regular games. Sturt has only played 4 games since being picked in the 2018 draft for the Dockers, but could be a sneaky bench option for us. Worked into the game well as a hybrid forward.
Connor Rozee
High TOG, High CBAs, High Scoring. The game from Rozee is what you want to see from someone you hope to break into the top echelon of forwards in fantasy. He showed he deserves to be in the conversation with the other big forwards for 2023.
Zac Butters
Butters was one who struggled to get involved for the Power. He was thrown around the ground quite a lot and didn’t get the CBA mix that you would have hoped for if you were eager to start him. Perhaps eased into the game after his AC joint setbacks last week. He probably fits in as one to monitor as an upgrade candidate through the season.
Port Adelaide were outright bullied in the Ruck through the game and Lycett struggled to perform aside from the last quarter. One to monitor with the continued struggles we are having to pick a second ruck, but alarm bells are certainly there.
Jason Horne-Francis
Impossible to miss with his high socks, Horne-Francis was also used substantially through the Power’s midfield mix and had flashes of quality. No doubts that he will be a premium at some point in the future, but is 2023 the year that happens?
It is always useful to look back at your previous years in Fantasy competitions to learn what you have done well and what you could’ve improved upon. After having personal best seasons across all formats, I’ve chosen to do a recap of my 2022 RDT Season to outline my starting structure and trades through the season, my reasoning behind these decisions, and where I could have improved my decision making.
Starting Squad:
Defenders – Jack Crisp ($867.8k), Lachie Whitfield ($808.3k), Jayden Short ($796.1k), George Hewett ($545.3k), James Sicily ($473.7k), Wayne Milera ($263.5k), Mitch Hinge ($182.8k), Sam De Koning ($182.8k)
We were stressed for rookie options down back at the start of the 2022 season. The highest scoring sub-300k rookie in round 1 was Patrick McCartin ($254.6k), who I missed starting at the expense of Milera, who I started despite coming off an injury interrupted pre-season due to his perceived upside. Hinge and De Koning, as bench options, were fine picks and served their roles.
Hewett and Sicily were the clear mid-pricers to own for 2022 in Defence. Both increased significantly from their starting price and proved to match it with the Top 6. Both had clear narrative as to why they could improve in price, with Hewett moving clubs for more opportunity and Sicily returning off injury. Finding players like this who can be season keepers at significantly cheaper prices makes a huge difference to getting a good balance in your starting squad.
The premiums I chose to start in Crisp, Whitfield, and Short were a mixed bag. All had a poor round 1 score with them scoring 51, 69, and 68 respectively. However, they all reversed their scoring for the following week and Crisp and Short proved to be premiums up until just after the byes. Whitfield is the only one you could say was a ‘failed’ pick, but he was a common pick (65% owned) and a tough mistake. However, none of the other picks in a similar price bracket performed well, with you having to go all the way down to either Jordan Dawson ($757.3k) or Jack Sinclair ($676.5k) to find anyone you could say was a miss. Dawson was coming off an interrupted pre-season and was popular before this, while Sinclair was a tricky one to see coming given there was no clear role change in pre-season.
Midfielders – Jack Macrae ($988.3k), Josh Kelly ($884.3k), Lachie Neale ($805.5k), Patrick Cripps ($697.1k), Matt Rowell ($471.1k), Jason Horne-Francis ($292.9k), Nick Daicos ($274.9k), Josh Ward ($256.9k), Connor MacDonald ($172.9k), Jake Soligo ($172.9k), Brady Hough ($172.9k)
Macrae came in as the second most expensive midfielder and one of the second most popular premium midfielder, only behind Neale. Both of these players were walk-up picks by the time round 1 and performed as well, if not better, than expected. Neale especially was great value for a player who ended up as a top 8 midfielder. Many might see Kelly as a failed pick, but much of that is hindsight for people who were tossing up between him and Andrew Brayshaw ($888.9k) as their M2. I believe that Kelly was a fine starting pick, especially with his scoring up to round 16, before he had a significant drop in CBA’s.
Cripps and Rowell as mid-pricers were miles apart. Cripps came out of the blocks in phenomenal form and left teams without him scrambling to bring him in. Rowell also had a great Round 1, but followed it up with a poor Round 2, and then regressed to middling scores for a few weeks. He ended up increasing in price by 100k by round 8 but did not perform at the level you would have wanted for a player like him. His performance, however, was offset by his ownership level of 63.7% by Round 2.
Horne-Francis, Daicos, and Ward were all popular starting rookies on field coming into the start of the season and all had ownership above 65%. Not much really needs to be said except pick the obvious rookies because they are obvious for a reason most of the time. MacDonald and Hough were the next most popular midfield rookies, whilst Soligo was a fair way down the list at only 15% ownership. It was a tricky start as, while MacDonald scored well and held his place in the team, both Hough and Soligo scored poorly and were in and out of their respective teams. There weren’t many other options for rookies and so it would be tough to judge this too harshly.
Rucks – Max Gawn ($925.9k), Brodie Grundy ($907.7k), Jack Hayes ($150.9k)
Neither Grundy nor Gawn came out of the gates flying in Round 1 but Gawn ended up showing his prowess as the season went on. The two that were missed at the start were Tim English ($685k) and Jarrod Witts ($588.9k), though the latter was coming off an ACL and was tricky to justify starting. English broke out as a clear number 1 ruck for the Dogs and is one who quite a few started to great success. Hayes was the clear rookie to start due to him playing round 1, with the only other rookie in consideration being Hugh Dixon ($150.9k) who had some job security concerns.
Forwards – Josh Dunkley ($780.6k), Zac Butters ($649.7k), Isaac Heeney ($649.3k), Stephen Coniglio ($402.5k), Will Brodie ($349.5k), Joshua Rachele ($262.9k), Finn Maginness ($182.8k), Corey Durdin ($182.9k)
Dunkley came in significantly underpriced due to his end to the 2021 season and was heavily selected as a result. His scores showed that he deserved that ownership and teams that didn’t start him struggled. Heeney and Butters were very similar in price and had ownership of 25% and 50% respectively. Heeney started the year better but both performed reasonably. In the end, both were outshined by DPP options that came through during the season. As such, perhaps both were failures, but their damage was offset by ownership and shows that selecting apparent top 6 players who might be outshone later through DPP isn’t a bad idea.
Brodie and Coniglio came in as mid-price options with significant ownership also. Both had narrative for their selection, with Brodie changing clubs and expected to get midfield time given the absence of Fyfe while Coniglio came off an injury interrupted 2021 season. Much like Hewett and Sicily, these were straightforward picks who ended up being season keepers.
Rachele and Maginness were two of the most popular forward rookie selections who were perceived to have solid job security. Durdin was arguably a mistake, but I opted into him over Nic Martin ($150.9k) due to my concerns over his job security. Durdin still provided enough cash generation to justify him as a starting selection.
Overall – A balance of 11 Premium, 6 Mid-Pricers, and 5 Rookies on field for round 1 ended up with a solid squad. Of the 6 Mid-Pricers, 5 of them were successful which helps to boost points on field and cash generation significantly, though it is worth noting that this wont be the case every year. While many of the premiums started performed well, the likes of Whitfield and Grundy clearly underperformed their price point. It is unlikely that all the premiums you pick will perform at your expectations or even at their price point, but if they are able to maintain consistent scoring until you can trade them out, they wont hurt you much, especially if they are highly owned players. Move the players who are underperforming early but have faith in premiums if they have a bad round 1 as they are proven scorers and will likely bounce back. Fix rookies, then mid-pricers, and lastly premiums.
Trades: (Prices Listed as at Round of Trade)
Round 3 – Matt Rowell ($471.1k), Wayne Milera ($263.5k), and Jake Soligo ($172.9k) to Paddy McCartin ($254.6k), Tristan Xerri ($297.4k), and Dylan Stephens ($282.7k).
I had no faith in Rowell after a poor round 2 and needed cash to get the players I wanted to get in. Despite high ownership and a low breakeven, I was comfortable moving Rowell. Milera and Soligo were dropped and not performing and thus they also both departed. McCartin was the defensive rookie I missed and so I corrected to get him, while Xerri was showing that he had plenty of cash to generate. Stephens was also on the bubble and bought in. Overall, these trades were correctional and successful.
Round 4 – Dylan Stephens ($333.6k) to Nick Martin ($150.9k).
Martin had a ridiculously low breakeven and had missed round 2 so was late to the bubble, whilst Stephens had a poor round 3 score and was dropped for round 4. Easy move to make, but arguably a wasted trade from the week before with getting Stephens.
Round 5 – Josh Ward ($362.6) and Mitch Hinge ($327.4k) to Hugh Dixon ($228.3k) and Nathan O’Driscoll ($261.8k).
Despite missing the bubble on O’Driscoll, his huge score in round 4 meant there was plenty of cash to be generated from him, with the same also applying for Dixon. Hinge was dropped after round 4 and did not return until round 8, while Ward had stagnated in price. Overall, these trades were good and provided cash for the first round of upgrades at round 6.
Round 6 – Brodie Grundy ($833.1k), Jason Horne-Francis ($477.4k), and Connor MacDonald ($317.5k) to Brayden Preuss ($255.8k), Callum Mills ($854.5k), Bailey Smith ($887.7k).
This week of trades was wild. Culling a known premium in Grundy who had been underperforming was a risky move which paid off even more due to his injury just a week later, and going for Preuss on the bubble was a move that many teams made. Both Horne-Francis and MacDonald had near maxed out in price and so moving them was justified. Going for Smith was a defensive move against many other top teams, and was perhaps a mistake over going for other, more known premium options. Mills, however, was a season defining pick. He came into 2022 underdone in the preseason, and prior to round 6 had been building his time on ground and had a great run of games coming up. In round 6, he went 162 and left many other coaches scrambling to grab him. A good lesson from this is preseason targets who then drop in price due to coming in underdone to start the season as they can make great upgrade targets.
Round 7 – Tristan Xerri ($508k), Joshua Rachele ($461.3k), and Jack Hayes ($331.4k) to Ben Hobbs ($220.9k), Clayton Oliver ($867.4k), and Sam Hayes ($182.8k).
Rachele had peaked in price two games after his score of 101, whilst Hayes and Xerri were both injured after Round 6. Moving all three of these players in was an easy decision. Hobbs and Hayes were both on the bubble with cash to make, whilst the price of Oliver was right as he had bottomed out due to a poor game where he had copped attention. He was also coming into a good run of fixtures with Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and the Eagles in his next 4 games. A simple two down, one up trade which paid off well.
Round 8 – Nick Daicos ($615.4k), Hugh Dixon ($344k), and Corey Durdin ($311.6k) to Tom Stewart ($827.7k), Robbie McComb ($150.9k), and Keidean Coleman ($349k).
Moving Daicos, in hindsight, was premature but he had done his job as a rookie and was at a price where a move to a premium was easily made. Both Dixon and Durdin were rookies who had made cash and were easy flips. Both McComb and Coleman were on the bubble and easy to jump onto. Coleman especially had been in my preseason plans before his injury, and when he came back in with reasonable scores, I was comfortable to jump onto him. Having the round 14 bye was also a bonus. Going for Stewart here was probably a mistake when Jack Sinclair was at a price that was 100k less and at a similar average. However, I ended up chasing the points of the previous week which did not end up paying off. Lesson learned, don’t chase the points.
Round 9 – Nathan O’Driscoll ($464.6k) and Brady Hough ($217.9k) to Darcy Cameron ($557.5k) and Greg Clark ($172.9k).
O’Driscoll was injured and Hough was dropped. Aggressive trading with Hough going out but was justifiable to grab Clark who had cash and points to be made. Jumping onto Cameron was another season defining move due to his role change, and the move had to be made now before his price became out of reach. The main takeaway here is to jump on price changes; Cameron had tonned up the previous two weeks and continued to outscore his price point for the rest of the season.
Round 10 – Lachie Whitfield ($747.5k) and Nick Martin ($600.8k) to Sam Docherty ($865.7k) and Jake Soligo ($188.8k).
Whitfield, an underperforming premium, finally departs my team due to injury, while Martin is moved due to him being basically maxed out in price. While he did punish me with a 113 after this trade out, I still think this was the right move due to the uncertainty in rookie scoring. Docherty had had consistent scoring and was only up 20k from his starting price. He was a good unique and I was lacking players on the round 12 bye. Soligo returns to the team after having passed the bubble, but was only up 16k and had plenty of cash to make from here due to his change in role.
Round 11 – Ben Hobbs ($423.1k) and Finn Maginness ($379.8k) to Marcus Bontempelli ($807k) and Sam Butler ($172.9k).
Hobbs hadn’t quite got to his peak price and scored well through the byes, but would have hurt my bye structure to hold. Maginness continued to go up in price also from here, but not by much. Cashing these two in allowed me to get Bontempelli right before he was due to gain DPP and become a clear top 6 forward. Butler provided a heartbeat through the byes and the bench afterwards.
Round 12 – Isaac Heeney ($638.5k) and Sam Hayes ($397.8k) to Mitch Owens ($172.9k) and Tim English ($862.8k).
Heeney had been poor for the previous few weeks and had the bye coming the week after, while Hayes was on his bye and didn’t play again after this point. Owens was the rookie on the bubble but unfortunately got concussed during round 13. English was the popular ruck to own and was returning from injury. Hard to say that bringing him in was the wrong call, but it certainly wasn’t a great move. The concussion from Preuss was unforeseeable and he wasn’t quite the same on return but bringing English in here was the defensive move against other highly ranked coaches.
Round 13 – Bailey Smith ($862.9k), Paddy McCartin ($463.2k), Greg Clark ($391k), and Robbie McComb ($376.6k) to Brynn Teakle ($150.9k), Sam Walsh ($879.6k), Zach Merrett ($763.9k), and Jacob Wehr ($182.8k).
Smith had been Suspended, whilst the others were all on the bye and had maxed out in price. Teakle had come in during the Mid-Season Draft and managed half a game before getting injured. DPP and price were also a high consideration at this point. Wehr was on the bubble and was one of the only playing cheap defender rookies left for the year and provided bye coverage. Merrett, at his price, was a great buy. He had a stunning run to end the year. Walsh was an unfortunate pick due to lack of options off the round 12 bye. Sinclair was perhaps the one to bring in here instead and was one I was considering instead.
Round 14 – Max Gawn ($852.2k), Keidean Coleman ($545.1k), and Sam De Koning ($446.2k) to Massimo D’Ambrosio ($150.9k), Rory Laird ($924.6k), and Luke Parker ($825k).
Gawn was injured and expected to miss a large chunk of games. Coleman had his bye and was nearing his peak in price, though managed to score well (although inconsistently) after this point. De Koning was the last cow that I started that I moved on. D’Ambrosio was the last remaining cow worth buying. Laird was about to come into an easy run of games, facing North Melbourne twice and the Eagles on his run home. At his price, many were wanting to buy him off his bye. Lastly, Parker was a safe forward to finish out the line with and was also at a good price. These trades rounded out my byes with a solid team.
Round 15 – Zac Butters ($612.7k) to Sean Darcy ($722.6k).
The last upgrade I had to make was to get in a Ruckman to complement Cameron as English was missing from concussion and Preuss from Suspension. This was probably a mistake which came about from weeks earlier; the decision to hold Preuss through the byes was a mistake and not trading him here compounded the issue. The lesson here is to not be stubborn when players are dropped and move them on if they aren’t in the team and have made enough cash. Of note is that Marshall would have been a great pickup here, however he had come off two poor scores in the weeks prior.
Round 16 – Tom Stewart ($787.2k) and Brayden Preuss ($615k) to Mitch Duncan ($744k) and Aaron Hall ($732.7k).
The final nail in the coffin. Stewart getting suspended and Preuss missing again meant a move had to be made to cover both of these players. Finding a pair of players that fit my budget was tricky, and I ended up on Duncan and Hall. Duncan had a changed role to being back off HB while Hall had returned from injury and was bottomed out in price. In the end, this was a terrible mistake. Whilst Duncan proved to be a good selection, Hall was injured on 12 this week and didn’t look like returning for a few weeks. The final lesson here is don’t bring in injury prone players, and especially don’t bring in two of them in the same week.
Round 17 – Aaron Hall ($692.1k) and Jake Soligo ($474k) to Jordan Dawson ($886.5k) and Declan Mountford ($150.9k)
Hall had to be moved on due to his injury, and Soligo was the last bit of cash I had left on the bench. Dawson was the best available defender as I could not afford Sinclair, while Mountford was bought in due to his price, DPP flexibility, and being a loop option for the last few rounds.
Final Team:
Lots of cash generation allowed for me to end the year with 24 premiums and able to cover two outs for the final round. This ended up with me funnily enough having three premiums on my midfield bench, although one was looped on. The lessons learned through the season, whilst in a format not many play, are applicable to all formats of fantasy and I believe the way I played Dream Team was similar to the way I played AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach in 2022. I hope that you are able to gain some insight from this and feel free to reach out if you have any questions or ever feel like a chat about Fantasty
The defensive premiums in 2023 look like a mixed bag, and I expect a lot of diversity in the ones that coaches will start. The standout for me is Tom Stewart, who has shown he has the ceiling that you would be envious of in midfield premiums. Having an inbuilt injury-affected game in his price and a ridiculously high percentage of games where he tons up, Stewart is one who I don’t see moving from my backline at this stage.
The biggest watch of the players in my backline is Angus Brayshaw. When his CBAs spiked in the last few games of the season, he averaged over 110 and went at 105 from round 11 onwards. Brayshaw might need CBAs to push a higher average, but he has shown that even without midfield, he can push near to the 100 mark and, given the losses in defenders this year, that might be enough to push top six.
The breakout candidate in Hayden Young is one I’ve been watching since the middle of the season. From round 8 onwards, he went below 78 once and had supreme consistency in scoring output. Fremantle will likely continue to give Young a more prominent role as he develops, including more kick-in responsibilities. With free reign to do as he pleases across HB, Young is one to monitor.
Both Elliott Yeo and Connor McKenna are underpriced, but for different reasons. The watch on these two will be fitness and whether they are best 22, respectively. If Yeo remains fit through the preseason, he might be one you have to start, whilst the price tag of McKenna means that, should he be named round one, he will be in most teams.
The rookies in Campbell Chesser and Darcy Wilmont won’t surprise many, though as it is with all rookies, we wait to see whether they are named when the season starts. Corey Wagner is a sneaky one to monitor for the 2023 season, as the departure of Blake Acres might leave a free wing spot for him to stake claim to at Fremantle.
Callum Mills, Jack Steele and Darcy Parish all present value for 2023 based on injury affected games last year, while I’m predicting a big bounce back for Jackson Macrae with the departure of Josh Dunkley. All four of these should be captaincy options in any game, and have shown they can match it with the best.
Much like most other team reveals, the one mid-pricer I am looking at here is Jacob Hopper. The difference between his price coming into the season and his proven scoring potential means that he would’ve been a lock in many sides if he had stayed at GWS. The move to Richmond cements his position in my team at this stage as there should be plenty of opportunities for him.
The rookies in Ashcroft, Humphrey, Phillips, and Hewett are all ones to monitor in the preseason and almost certainly pick if they start. Dowling and Baker are also track watches and might be less likely to start, but they should be considered if they do.
There will be a reshuffle in the best rucks for the 2023 season with Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy together at the Demons. Grundy’s departure allows Darcy Cameron to maintain the number one ruck mantle at the Pies. His season is defined by the disparity in scoring before he was the ruckman and after. There is enough upside and proven scoring with Cameron to show that he can push over the 100 barrier which should put him up in the top few.
The decision between Tim English and Rowan Marshall will be one that I’ll be thinking about most of the preseason. Both players can push over 110, but at this stage I will be going with English because he has slightly more security in role. Should I want both, I may even be interested in restructuring and moving Cameron to my forward line as additional Ruck security.
Jacob Edwards is among the few rookies who could get a game as a ruckman in 2023. With DPP flexibility and a low price, he can hold that spot for the time being.
I’ve thought about which of the big premium forwards are best to start with in 2023 for a while, especially after it was revealed last week that all of Josh Dunkley, Tim Taranto, and Connor Rozee held the DPP. As a result, I couldn’t at least try to see what a team looked like with all three of them. Given where the more probable rookies look, I could see many teams rolling out with these filling F1-3 when the season starts.
Nathan Fyfe and Toby McLean both provide immense value as forwards, but much like Yeo and McKenna in the defence, Fyfe needs to show fitness and an uninterrupted pre-season and McLean needs to prove that he is best 22. Should they show this, they’ll be popular starting selections and both in my team.
Jacob Van Rooyen and Sinn are players who, with another preseason, will push for selection in their teams round one lineups, while Mattaes Phillipou is a player who oozes class and could see an early call up from Ross Lyon and he looks to mix-up their midfield dynamic.
The AFL trade period might still be in full swing, but it’s never too early to think about the upcoming fantasy football season, right? Gulp! I had some spare time to put together my way too early 2023 fantasy football watchlist.
Reilly O’Brien
The Adelaide ruckman starts us off in this list not because of his performance throughout the year, but the seeming dread of ruck options that might be startable for 2023. With the likelihood that Gawn and Grundy end up in the same team and Darcy sharing time with Jackson, ROB stands out as one of the few premiums rucks who will have uncontested time in the middle. Coming in priced at 93 and 102 in AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach respectively, the small value that ROB presents to coaches might see him selected as the starting premium ruck option.
Darcy Wilmot
Wilmot impressed when playing in Brisbane’s three finals, holding down a spot through the finals series and putting forward the case for him to be in the best 22 to start next year. He showed a decent role across half back for the Lions and coming in at a basement price for next year he will likely be one of the most picked players when the games launch.
Cerra has been playing as a pure midfielder upon moving to Carlton, performing at just under a 90 average in AFL Fantasy and 92 in SuperCoach. However, he had a year which was interrupted significantly by injuries which saw him struggle for consistency, with his season including a subbed 5 point game and many games where he scored lowly due to returning with low time on ground. Of the 18 games he played which weren’t affected by injury and low TOG, only one of them had a score below 90, and removing these affected games raises his averages to 98.7 and 103.6 in AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach, respectively. As such, there is a minimum 10 points of upside for him, and with an uninterrupted season he could push close to a top 15 midfielder in both formats.
Nick Daicos
The rookie who defied even the highest expectations of coaches finished close to being a top 6 defender in all formats and yet he might still hold more value in 2023. His ability for a first-year player was highlighted by the fact he pumped out seven tons in AFL fantasy and six in SuperCoach, with high scores of 147 and 163 in the formats, respectively. It’s worth noting that in the second half of his season his averages were 95.5 and 93.2 in AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach, respectively, including games where he even drew tags. With a reduction of the number premium defenders likely, Daicos may be able to improve enough into 2023 to push into the top 6.
Darcy Parish
Coming off a breakout year in 2021, Parish started 2022 where he left off, averaging 108.5 in AFL Fantasy and 118.5 in SuperCoach before the Bye. After the bye, Parish had an injured game where he was subbed out, followed by two different injury stints which saw him play just 4 full games for the rest of the year. Uncertainty around the Bombers remains with a new coach, but being priced at least 10 points under his proven ability, Parish is an under-priced premium to consider starting.
Hayden Young
Fast becoming one of my favourite players, Young was finally able to string together a full season of AFL and had what many would consider a third-year breakout. He averaged just under 90 in AFL Fantasy and just over 90 in SuperCoach with phenomenal consistency, registering only two games under 75 in AFL Fantasy and three under 75 in SuperCoach. With another preseason under his belt and the potential for him to move further up the ground with the departure of Acres, Young could easily become a top 6 defender in 2023.
Max Holmes
The unlucky man to miss out on the premiership in 2022 for the Cats will surely have a point to prove, and with Joel Selwood retiring the opportunity for midfield time for the young cat presents us a potential breakout candidate. He will come in priced at 63.5 and 65.5 in AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach, respectively, and in 2022 he showed his fantasy chops with a 7-game stretch at the end of the season prior to finals where he went at 80 in both formats. If he were to retain forward status, I would consider him an almost must start player for 2023.
Harry Himmelberg
A tale of two halves of the season and two different coaches for Himmelberg, with his move to a defender at round 10 significantly changing his scoring output, with at one point him having one of the highest 3-round averages in fantasy. If you think that the new coach Adam Kingsley will keep Himmelberg in an intercept defender role for 2023, there is up to 20 points of upside for him, and he has the potential to be the highest averaging defender next year.
Ben King
The twin to Max didn’t play a game in 2023 due to suffering an ACL injury in February. Whilst picking players off a severe knee injury is risky, the fact that he will come in near or at basement price with an extended recovery period might mean he can sit on your forward bench through the early part of the season and be a slow burn cash cow. The fact that he will likely be a starter for the Suns in every game he is fit means that he will be a great option for the 2023 season, just don’t rely on him for a fieldable score.
Another candidate for a second-year breakout is Ward, who also showed his fantasy chops in the second half of 2022. After breaking back into the team in round 17, Ward went on to average 89 in AFL Fantasy and 78 in SuperCoach, presenting over 15 points worth of upside compared to his season average. If Tom Mitchell is on the outs as it appears, the additional responsibilities that could go to Ward could see him be a Mid-Price option worth starting.
Christian Salem
Salem has shown in the past that he can achieve an average in and around the 90’s which in a typical year is verging on the top 10 defenders. However, he will come in priced at 80 across all formats due to suffering an injury barely 10 minutes into round 1. Salem them returned with an 82 average across his last 9 games in both formats. Whether there is enough for Salem to be an underpriced premium worth picking for 2023 remains to be seen, but he remains firmly on the watch list.
Will Phillips
One of the forgotten players at the Kangaroos due to missing the entire year with glandular fever, Phillips will receive a significant discount coming into the 2023 season due to not playing game. Opportunities exist for the young Roo to stake a claim for a midfield role in the rebuilding Kangaroos, and it is likely that Phillips will line up in round 1 for the side should he have an injury free preseason. Priced near basement and with Mid/Fwd DPP, Phillips is one who will probably end up in the majority of teams come the start of the fantasy season next year.
Connor Rozee
Rozee has shown throughout the 2022 season that he can match it with the best players for scoring potential, especially forwards. The issue is he has also shown a floor which is completely unacceptable for salary cap formats, with his scoring output entirely dependent on his midfield time. If listed as a forward for next season, he should be heavily considered as a starting option if given midfield time through the preseason and will probably be one to mull over even if only a midfielder.
Tim Taranto
Richmond a tricky team to pick a player from who could present value for 2023 due to their gamestyle being relatively unappealing for fantasy, highlighted by the fact that no player averaged over 100 in either format in 2022. However, the trade in of Tim Taranto finally has me excited about owning a Tiger in fantasy again. Taranto has shown phenomenal fantasy prowess when given a full-time midfield position and with Richmond likely to give him plenty of CBA’s, he could easily push a 105 average across formats. Time will tell whether he retains forward status into 2023, but he is still worthy of a spot in your early drafts for next season.
Rowan Marshall
Ryder retiring has opened the door for Marshall to be the solo ruckman for the Saints in 2023. He has shown his ceiling when Ryder has been injured, notching high scores of 163 in AFL Fantasy and 173 in SuperCoach. The main concern is if the Saints will want to play Tom Campbell alongside him, but with limited Ruck options that will present value for 2023 he might be the easy option for a reason. Let’s just hope he stays a solo ruck!
Mills joined the 200 club in SuperCoach in 2022 with a monster 214 against Hawthorn, posting 162 in AFL Fantasy in the same game. The ability for him to pump ceiling games during the season puts him in the upper echelon of premium midfielders behind only Oliver, Laird, and Neale. The biggest issue for Mills is his floor, with the Swan posting 7 sub-100 games in AFL Fantasy and SuperCoach, however two of these came early in the season when he had low TOG due to recovering from an Achilles injury. If he can have an uninterrupted preseason and another year in the midfield, Mills could stake a claim to being the number one midfielder across all formats.
Campbell Chesser
Chesser was hyped up as a potential rookie to start in 2022 even with his inflated price due to being pick 14 and was even on track to debut in round 1 before suffering multiple injuries through the year. A complete preseason for him should allow for him to stake a claim in the Eagles best 22 for the 2023 season, and with the team headed towards a rebuild, getting games into the classy young defender is sure to be a high priority. He will come in at basement price and should easily be a starting defender rookie for your team.
Bailey Smith
Smith started the 2022 season in phenomenal form, posting 8 tons in 9 games at an average of 118 in AFL Fantasy and an average of 101 in SuperCoach. However, he had an extended break through the middle of the season due to suspensions and slowed down in the back half of the year. The likely departure of Dunkley will open more midfield time at the Dogs and if Smith were to retain Forward status there is an argument that he is almost certain to be in the top 6. As usual, the Dogs midfield rotation will be a watch, but if Smith is entrenched in it then he has one foot firmly in my 2023 team.
