Every preseason draft coaches excitedly prepare for draft day. They spend months doing mock drafts, building their tiers and do everything possible to ready themselves for the most important day of the year. Truth be told, you don’t win your league on those early rounds of draft day. More often than not you win your draft of the back of some astute late picks and waiver wire selections.
You’ll always get some value for selections inside the top 100 picks. For example, Jack Steele is currently ranked sixth for total points scored but on the draft day had an average draft position of 79.6. In a ten team league, that’s an 8th round selection and an excellent return for owners. Christian Petracca is another who had an average draft position of 90.4 but is the highest ranked forward for both points and averages.
Even between picks 100-200, you get some that absolutely pop. One of the surprise packets of the year is Brayden Maynard. He’s currently ranked third for total points behind Jake Lloyd and Rory Laird (both picked within first three rounds) while Brayden’s ADP was 164. Sam Menegola (149) and Trent Dumont (153) were highly drafted but given their positioning have been enormous successes for owners.
As great as these selections have been, and they are. I want to look at players who were picked beyond range 200 that have gone on to return some of the best value of the fantasy footy season. So using UltimateFooty statistics as our guide here are 20 late round selections that you can build a case are the best picks of 2020.
After rounds 3, 6 & 9 the drafting format of Ultimate Footy awards additional player positions to players that have had a role change in season. As always players are required to have played a minimum of 3 games to be eligible and to be playing the new position as their primary role in the side.
In total 8 players have gained an additional position, five players have gained back status, two gaining centre, and one has picked up forward status. Let’s look at who they are and the relevance to your draft sides and leagues.
This is by far the most beneficial inclusion of this round of new dual position players. Jack Bowes, the former first-round pick (I know you can say that phrase for most Gold Coast player) is averaging career-high numbers. Included in that is his five rebound 50’s a game.
An average of 75 in most seasons doesn’t sound too exciting, but in shortened quarters as a backman it is healthy. If we were to rank him against other current backs, only 12 others average higher than him, and he’d be ranked 10th for total points. An 88 last week against the Crows shows he’s also got some nice ceiling about him as well.
The allocation of back status means he transitions from potentially a coaches sixth or seventh best midfielder right up to a possible top-scoring back. This is a huge win for owners!
Ben McEvoy | Add Back
Ben McEvoy has had a drastic role change and is now a key defender. Scores of 45, 39 & 43 are weak, but he’s got the potential to be a highly significant addition. For this to happen, it would require an injury or tactic change to move out Jon Ceglar and for Big Boy to move back into the ruck role. If this happens though, coaches could get a massive reward with a likely 80+ scorer knowing being backline eligible.
Should Ceglar maintain the role, he still is a valuable pick in deeper drafts our category leagues. Given he’s even given the odd centre bounce at the Hawks.
Reece Conca | Add Back
Last year Reece Conca was a staple through the Fremantle midfield core, however, under this new regime, he’s been bumped in favour for the new generation. Before his trade several years back he played an aggressive half back at Richmond and has seemed to slide right back into this role in 2020. A poor round three score of 47 will sour some coaches from selecting him. However, a 68 and 62 in the opening two rounds is a rosterable score in our backlines this year. Like other backs on this list contrast his current averages on what our existing backs are delivering, and he starts to become someone to consider.
The dockers are struggling with talls down back with injuries to the key defensive stocks of Joel Hamling and Alex Pearce. Brennan Cox has been sent down back to try and battle opposition key forwards. With just one score over 40, he’s not a waiver wire target in most leagues. However, depending on the scoring category’s you have turned on, he could be a sneaky waiver wire pick up.
Ben Long | Add Back
The crafty forward has been deployed into a new defensive focussed role for St Kilda in 2020. The correct call from UF is to award a new DPP, but he doesn’t present any relevance for coaches. Scores of 33 and 37 in the past fortnight, while might a score Lachie Whitfield owners would currently desire, are not scores coaches should be settling for on the field. Pass!
The injury to Blake Acres and Stephen Hill late in the preseason opened up a role on the Dockers wing, and Brett Bewley has made the most of his opportunities with scores of 89, 57 and 59. Like any player that gains a centre DPP, it doesn’t help increase the scoring potential of your side but instead just adds to some flexibility.
Lachie Weller | Add Centre
For years the Gold Coast Suns were mocked for parting with pick two (which was used on Andrew Brayshaw) to secure the services of Lachie Weller. However, late last year and now to start 2020 he’s starting to showcase his skill and worth to the Gold Coast. Like any player that gains a centre position, it doesn’t increase any on-field points for you. What it does do, is just add some depending versatility into your squad.
Shaun Burgoyne | Add Forward
Over the past few seasons ‘silk’ has been his teams Mr FixIt around the ground, often filling a need for his club. In 2020 Shaun Burgoyne has been deployed more forward where his damaging foot skills can be used for efficient forward 50 entries. The ability to now move him between the back and forward lines just provides you with some additional security should injuries strike your team. In this role, he’ll be prone to the odd sub 50 scores, but on the right week (like in round one) a 70 as a player who’s just purely picked up for injury insurance is substantial.
Is your draft happening over this weekend? As a loyal Coaches Panel patreon member here are the rankings, I’ve created for the 2020 season.
Round One
Order of preference to take in the first round, regardless of who gets taken before my pick:
1
Brodie Grundy
2
Lachie Whitfield
3
Jack Macrae
4
Josh Kelly
5
Andrew Gaff
6
Josh Dunkley
7
Stephen Coniglio
8
Dustin Martin
9
Tom Mitchell
10
Max Gawn
11
Lachie Neale
12
Toby Greene
And then in round two:
If I took a midfielder in round one, I would then take Toby Greene, Jake Lloyd or Rory Laird – failing that, the best available midfielder.
If I took a ruck or forward in round one, I would then take the best available midfielder in round two
The Tim Taranto Dilemma
His average draft position this year is 51, however, this includes new keeper leagues, drafts completed prior to his injury, and auto picks afterwards. I’d be keen to pounce from about round 8 – roughly 100 players into the draft and as your 4th or 5th midfielder
Over the weekend members of The Coaches Panel and some fantasy, footy community friends got together to participate in a mock draft. This wasn’t like any other mock. Rather it came with a twist. Instead of letting coaches draft ‘whoever’ they wanted, they were forced to pick with a tactic in mind. So, we created the Ultimate Mock Draft
Six different tactics were handed out to the ten coaches. The tactics were:
Load up on midfielders
Draft a top ten scoring defender and forward in the opening five rounds
Attempt to start a draft ‘run’ of a certain position
Draft who you believe is best available
Place low value in the forward line. Look to maximize the waiver wire in the season to play forwards with ceiling
Get versatility and flexibility in your team with ensuring you maximize DPP in your side.
Below is a summary of what each coach did with their tactic, how it impacted their draft
Jordox| Pick #1
Tactic allocated: Attempt to ‘force a run’ of other
coaches picking a position.
How it impacted my draft: Having pick 1 meant the rest of my selections would be taken back to back giving me a stronger chance of pulling this tactic off and because I only grabbed 1 midfielder in the first 3 rounds, I wanted to use this tactic to keep some of the left over mids available for me later.
I decided to try and pull this off with my 4th and 5th picks which were taken back to back. Knowing that only 7 of the 39 picks already taken were forwards, I took two forwards (Jack Martin and Tom Lynch) in the hope this would start a run of others picking forwards. If this worked, it would mean my next two picks would land me two decent mids after already banking two of the best forwards.
Would you recommend this approach: Based on my
experience in this draft, certainly not. The tactic didn’t work at all with
only 1 forward being drafted in the next two rounds, and consequently meant I
missed out on some decent midfielders with the likes of Rockcliff, Sidebottom,
Worpel, Ross and Adams all being taken before my next pick.
First round pick and why: I flirted with going
against the norm and not taking Grundy with pick 1 but in the end, I just
couldn’t see any way I could snob the big man. Clearly the number 1 player in
the game with no reason to suggest he will drop off this year.
Fav pick and why: There were plenty of bargains in JackSteven at pick 80 and Andrew McGrath at pick 121 but my favourite has to be grabbing Docherty at the top of the 3rd round with pick 21. He may take a few weeks to warm up but once he does, he’ll be putting up midfielder like numbers as he did before his knee injuries. I’ll be surprised if he’s not top 10 in most Drafts in 2021.
Jordox’s Full Team
Lewy| Pick #2
Tactic Allocated: Pick best available
How it impacted your draft: It didn’t, it was just a regular draft given my tactic.
Would you recommend this approach: Definitely although it’s completely variable on who you consider best available. It gives you the flexibility to go hard in certain positions if you personally deem them the best available pick in their position (def, mid, fwd, ruc). Ie a Taylor Adams type may go 100+ in the midfield but if a bloke like Heeney who traditionally is a 90 type guy in the forward line is still available, and given there’s a lot of midfielders that can push high 90s, it’s probably wiser to take the fwd first.
First round pick and why: Jackson Macrae. Selection speaks for itself – a bloke who has shown insane ceiling and an even more impressive consistency to push 120s week in, week out. Durability has never been an issue and because the dogs midfield is one of the best engine rooms in the comp, MacRae is often second in line for a tag behind Bontempelli. Wins the footy inside and out, running around taking plenty of marks, there’s not a lot not to like about Jackson Macrae’s fantasy football pedigree and his potential in 2020.
Favorite pick and why: Christian Petracca has always been an absolute jet but unfortunately for coaches and footy fans alike, it’s been here and there and often in small glimpses as he’s been anchored down as a forward who occasionally pushes into the midfield. This has been a hindrance on his fantasy scoring as a bit like Chad Wingard – he is just so valuable up forward.
However, it seems Simon Goodwin has handed Petracca the keys to the inside mid role and as his marsh performances have shown so far in 2020, he’s ready to take it with both hands. Ultimately – Christian Petracca is my favourite pick based on watching him as a general player but also because I believe 2020 will finally be the year we see him build, and potentially even reach, his full potential as both a player and fantasy gun.
Lewy’s Full Team
JimBob | Pick #3
Tactic Allocated: I was encouraged to draft a squad with as much flexibility as possible with DPP. While I adopted this strategy, I also try to target players that have recently lost DPP Like Callum Mills (B only) and James Harmes (C only) in hope it may be returned during the season.
How it impacted your draft: There are DPP’s littered throughout the rankings, so a player was never too far away as the best available, so not a great deal. I probably reached a little on a couple of players like Jordan Dawson (pick 38) and Houston (43, but am confident they will deliver as D1s, and may be a solid mid short in trying to reach for some extra DPPs
Would you recommend this approach: It’s probably not needed in a general 5/7/1/5 10-12 team league where waivers are active. Placing a higher value on DPPs in a league that goes 400+ deep, where waiver picks are limited or where your evil commissioner makes you play through the byes would definitely be a great tactic.
First round pick and why:Lachie Whitfield is one of the premier DPPs available this season and would have been in consideration at pick 3 anyway. A no brainer really.
Fav pick(s) and why Chris Mayne at 158 with defender eligibility could be one of the steals of the draft with numerous injuries to the back six of Collingwood and their naturally high possession game.
BUT – If the 12th highest averaging forward from last year can get anywhere near that again, Matt Tabener in the 15th round (143) is absolutely criminal and I should go to jail without passing go and collecting $200.
Jimbob’s Full Team
McRath | Pick #4
Tactic Allocated: Draft top 5 ranked defender and forward in first five picks
How it impacted your draft: I was really happy taking two genuine gun mids in Kelly/Neale to start, then O’Brien was someone I always wanted to target. That left me needing to bring in the best back and forward at Rounds 4 and 5. Stewart should be a safe top 5 defender, and Greenwood is someone that I believe could comfortably slip into that top five mix as the Suns improve.
Would you recommend this approach? I’ve always been about a fair bit of balance in the opening half of your draft, employing a similar tactic over the past few years. This tactic does insure you against going too light in a particular area, but also can restrict you somewhat if a few sliding gun midfielders fall your way. So I would recommend this approach, but in conjunction with an open-minded perspective to read the draft as it falls.
First round pick & why: With my first pick, my goal was to get the guy I thought would deliver the highest scores across the season. In the absence of the obvious Macrae, Grundy and Whitfield, Kelly is someone I’m extremely high on. He’s fit and firing and set to have a career-year. From Round 3 to Round 15 last year, Kelly tonned up in every single game – with 6 (consecutive) scores of 120+ from Round 9. He’s a jet and should dominate in 2020.
Favourite pick & why: Jack Steele is a young mid that I was keen to target and all too happy to take him in the sixth round. Freed up from defensive duties, his ball magnet pedigree could see him push the echelons of a 110 average in 2020.
McRath’s Full Team
MJ | Pick #5
Tactic allocated: Load up on midfielders
How it impacted your draft: Honestly, hitting the draft heavy for midfielders is a fairly common tactic I use. That said, after doing multiple mock drafts ahead of this, I knew that if I didn’t lock a top tier forward early, I’d find myself too thin to be a threat.
After landing Dunkley and Oliver with my first two selections, I had to take Michael Walters with my third selection at #25. From then it was Pendlebury (#36), Sidebottom (#45), Gus Brayshaw (#56), Prestia (#76) Lyons (#85) and Liam Shiels (#95) to round out the midfield and bench spot.
From then it was about securing as many breakout candidates and fallen historical scorers to attempt to bump my scoring up.
Would you recommenced this approach: For the most part, yes, but with one disclaimer. Don’t go so heavy in the midfield that you do it at the cost of thinning other lines. While I’m happy with my side, I do know some coaches were forced to change their intuitive style of drafting to model a tactical approach. Had they’d been freed to draft ‘uninhibited’ my backs and forwards could look much worse.
First Round pick & why: Given my tactic brief, was to drive strong into the draft for midfielders pick five gave me a great starting position. After McRath took Josh Kelly at four, it was down to either Dunkley or Mitchell.
Both have an element of risk, Titch with managing his workload, Dunkley with role change. However, I’m bullish on Dunkley and decided that he was the one for me. His ceiling is nearly unmatched.
Favourite pick & why: I had a few, but far and above it was the selection ofmy first defender in James Sicily. Locking away a D1 at pick 65 (7th round) with his calibre of scoring was a huge win. Especially considering I hit the draft hard chasing midfielders. The other is probably Andrew Brayshaw in the 10th round, on a current trend he looks like he’s pumping an average of 90 this year. To get that from a forward midway through the draft is a bargain!
MJ’s Full Team
Kane | Pick #6
Tactic allocated: Draft a top 10 back and forward in
the first five rounds.
How it impacted your draft: This tactic didn’t impact
me at all. With Jake Lloyd falling into my lap at 15 I had no hesitation
locking him in as an elite defender and similarly with Devon Smith at 35. After
that I was free to react to what the draft was giving me.
Would you recommenced this approach: I would
definitely recommend this approach of locking away a top tier back and forward
in the first five rounds as it provides your team with a solid foundation for
the rest of the draft and allows you to take the best available as opposed to
drafting a position of need player to early out of necessity.
First Round pick & why: Tom Mitchell (Pick 6): With
Grundy, Macrae, Whitfield, Kelly and Dunkley off the board it was between
Mitchell and Gawn for my first pick. I can’t go past a player with the
potential to be the highest scorer in the league and was confident I could find
ruck value later on.
Fav pick & why: Nick Haynes (Pick 146): Finished
2019 on fire averaging 91 from his last eight games including four finals and
looks to have carried that same role into 2020. I selected him in the 15th
round which for a guy who has the potential to average in the 86-90 range I
feel is incredible value.
Tim | Pick #7
Tactic allocated: Take the best available.
How it impacted your draft: I took this to mean the best available player left in the pool, ignoring any thoughts of positional scarcity or my structure to date. Generally, it worked quite well, although the lack of depth in the forwards resulted in me not taking enough forwards until the very end (as after a certain point he forwards just never were the ‘best available’ anymore).
Would you recommend this approach? Generally, yes, it worked quite well. I’ve also seen absent players in drafts before end up with quite a solid ‘consensus best pick’ team from what is essentially this strategy (paired with the wisdom of the crowd). Factoring in some awareness of positional scarcity should also improve it.
First round pick and why: Max Gawn. I had him as the best player left in the draft at that point & it was ‘take best available’ so I did.
Favourite pick and why: Adam Treloar at pick 14. Prior to his recent hamstring injury, I’m sure he would’ve been going first round – he’s been consistently a 110 mid in recent years and no reason for that to change now. I feel his injury’s overplayed and he’ll likely just miss one match.
Tim’s Full Team
Fish | Pick #8
Tactic allocated: Load up on midfielders
How it impacted your draft: With limited elite options on other lines I felt compromised chasing mids. I also felt with the later 1st rd pick that all of the uber mids were gone by #8. This would have been the perfect time to take a top 2-3 fwd or see. The mids that I was able to select were solid, but not the type to be overly excited about. Compared to other teams my mids look very similar and I don’t really have the 1-2 punch on the fwd and see lines.
Would you recommend this approach: I wouldn’t recommend the tactic with a late 1st round pick, but do feel that it might work a little better with a pick in the 2-5 range. Hopefully, others would take fwds, def or rucks in a standard draft with their swing picks and a few more elite mids slip through.
First round pick and why: First pick was Zac Merrett at #8. Merrett still averaged 108 last year and this was with 2 games that had below-par scores due to injury. I felt he was the best option available with the uncertainty around the injury of Adam Treloar to start the season.
Favourite pick and why: Was probably Christian Salem at 73 in the 8th rd. Has the potential to average 95 .Given my tactic of loading up on mids, it was a surprise to find him still sitting there when it was time to start looking at other lines.
Fish’s Full Team
Rainman | Pick #9
Tactic Allocated: Streaming forwards
How it impacted your draft: It is how I would normally draft to be honest and I feel like put me in the box seat. Meant I could focus on quality mids and defenders and I feel like my side reflects that.
Would you recommend this approach: Fwds are generally the most readily available and lowest scoring. This means that there is generally a plethora available outside of the too 5-6 that will score within 5-10 points if each other. Additionally means you can stream to suit match ups.
First round pick and why: Dangerfield at pick 9. Best available Mid and thought that I could get Coniglio on the way back.
Favorite pick and why: I have 3. McCluggage in round 6. I think he will explode this year Goldstein in Round 12. Top 5 ruckman that late was a bonus. Bailey Williams in the second last round. I think he is best 22 at the dogs and can score very well with the right role
Rainman’s Full Team
Jimmy | Pick #10
Tactic allocated: Attempt to create a run on player types
How it impacted your draft: I took the opportunity of having a double pick on the turn each round (started from pick ten) to often pick two players from the same line to try start/continue a run on players from a certain line. First up I took Dustin Martin and reached for Toby Greene, later I took Tim English and Jon Ceglar, and at various other points took two forwards, defenders or midfielders especially when one or two had been taken just before me. This had a profound impact on my own draft as it often meant not taking my first choice of player to try impact other coaches’ selections instead. In this mock draft, it failed completely for three primary reasons: • The other coaches all had their own strict briefs to stick with rather than getting sucked into a run • These coaches are smarter than the average bears and wouldn’t often get sucked in anyway if there was a better option available regardless of perceived scarcity • And lastly, I really think there is a strong sense of value deep on every line this year so there’s no need to panic when 80pt defenders and forwards are disappearing.
Would you recommend this approach: Yes and no. I do think it’s crucial when drafting to look after your own backyard first. If there is an opportunity to create some chaos then by all means load up, but not at the expense of building a team you really love. With that said, I also think this is the year to pick to Ceglar as your second ruck, to play him forward and as backup, and doing so can create the run if there is a scarcity of decent available ruckmen. Beyond that it’s all about timing and perhaps banter in your draft’s chat box to try con your fellow coaches into panic selections.
First round pick and why: Dustin Martin with pick ten. I wanted to see what happened if I picked the two best forwards off the bat (Whitfield excluded) however per above, the other coaches mostly just went about their business picking midfielders. Given the sharp drop-off, this also makes sense as why would you pick a second-rate forward when there are still elite midfielders and defenders on the board?
Favourite pick and why: I loved the English/Ceglar double at picks 90 & 91. I’d expect both to average 90+ this year and this was at a time when there were few other players available who could achieve that mark. It didn’t spark a run but I’m happy with that choice regardless – and that is the key point. Listeners may also know that I freaking love Jack Lukosios so was stoked to pick him up at pick 190. Aaron Hall at 230 might just answer my midfield woes if he can get back to his best.
Last weekend the GWS Giants were hit with horrible news. The clubs reigning best and fairest winner Tim Taranto injured his shoulder and will require surgery. This reconstruction will mean he misses the next four to five months. With a return unlikely until after the bye round, it opens up an opportunity inside the Giants midfield. But for who?
The season could not have had a disastrous start to the season for the Giants. Tim Taranto injured his shoulder in the within minutes of the club’s first Marsh Series match against Sydney. However, if any team has the depth to cover his loss, it’s GWS. Here are six players that could fill the void left by Tim Taranto.
Stephen Coniglio
Just weeks ago Giants coach suggested his new captain could spend more time forward as he looked to juggle the star-studded midfield. With Taranto’s injury, Stephen Coniglio could be released to play the majority of game time as a midfielder. Should this occur, the already underpriced premium midfielder presents more definite value for fantasy coaches.
His 2019 AFLFantasy average of 104 is excellent, but if we remove then injury impacted game where he scored 0, it boosts up seven points to 111. Similarly in SuperCoach his average of 101 is more than respectable, but with the injured game removed then he spikes up to 108.
That backs up his scoring from 2018 where he averaged 110 in AFLFantasy and 108 in SuperCoach.
Earlier in the preseason, I wrote about him in the 50 Most Relevant, and you can read that article here.
Tom Green
As a junior Tom Green highlighted that he was one of the best midfielders available in his draft year. Last year he averaged 24 disposals, eight clearances and four tackles per game in the Under-18 Championships.
In the same game that Tim Taranto was injured, we got our first look at the future Giants star. He amassed 21 possessions, 15 of these were contested and kicked two goals. From a fantasy perspective, he scored 106 in SuperCoach and 76 in AFLFantasy. Should he debut round one and pick up some or all of Taranto’s midfield minutes we have a reliable midfield cash cow option to consider.
Jackson Hately
For many among the footballing community, Jackson Hately was already pencilled in for more opportunities with the departure of Adam Tomlinson. Given the similar physical and football traits, it’s understandable for the expectation. Taranto’s injury has just created an even bigger hole in the midfield. Given Hately’s physical presence and ability to win the ball on the inside and outside of the contest, I expect him to cement himself inside the sides best 22.
Hately has had limited opportunities, but in his first two games with scores of 84 and 80 in AFLFantasy and 95 and 85 in SuperCoach, he has shown his fantasy scoring potential already.
Jye Caldwell
The explosive and damaging midfielder is one to come under substantial consideration for the Taranto role. The former #11 draft pick is a stoppage king who brings with him a healthy defensive mindset. Additionally, Caldwell has a burst of speed from the contest that will make him a fan favourite.
Toby Greene
Round 17 at the MCG, the Giants injury crisis hit its peak. Already Callan Ward, Josh Kelly and tagger Matt deBoer were all out. However, it was also the infamous match the Stephen Coniglio injured his knee and scored a giant doughnut for coaches. These injuries forced the coaches hands, and Toby was thrown into the midfield.
During the final six matches of the season, he showed his class, ball-winning and presence as a midfielder. The injury to Taranto could see the coaching staff ‘go back to the well’ and place him back into the midfield. When place there he scored: 144, 115, 126, 146 142 & 99 at an average of 128 in AFLFantasy. For SuperCoach he scored; 138, 112, 107, 134, 122 & 115 at an average of 121.
Given the lack of genuine forward premium candidates we have available this year, this move could be one of the most beneficial for fantasy coaches.
Earlier in the preseason, I wrote about him in the 50 Most Relevant, and you can read that article here.
Callan Ward
He’s still a minimum of six weeks away from getting back into AFL calculations. However, when he does, the former skipper is one of the more natural candidates to take on the additional midfield responsibility.
Back in 2018 he averaged 27 possessions, 13 of these were contested, seven score involvements and averaged 96 in AFLFantasy and 104 in SuperCoach.
Earlier in the preseason, I wrote about him in the 50 Most Relevant, and you can read that article here.
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