Tag: Christian Petracca

#36 Most Relevant | Christian Petracca

Dive into the dynamic world of Christian Petracca, Melbourne’s midfield maestro, as we explore his profound impact in AFLFantasy and SuperCoach formats. Uncover the nuances of his game and his pivotal role in fantasy drafts, where he stands as a top-tier selection in SuperCoach and a formidable force in AFLFantasy.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Christian Petracca is a quintessential example of a modern AFL midfielder, combining a unique skill set that makes him one of the most damaging players on the field. His strength in contests, coupled with a high football IQ, makes him a formidable opponent in the thick of the midfield battle. Petracca doesn’t rely on brute force; his game intelligence allows him to take calculated risks, often paying off spectacularly.

As a good ball user, he knows how to make each possession count, whether setting up a play or going for a goal. Moreover, his ability to perform under pressure is evident both in the congested midfield and when isolated one-on-one in the forward line, making him a dual threat that is hard to stop.

In AFLFantasy for the 2023 season, Petracca’s performance was impressive. He averaged 106, with 17 scores over 100, including three surpassing 120, and remarkably, he had just one score under 80. This consistency earned him the 15th rank by average and 9th by overall points – a testament to his reliability and scoring prowess.

In SuperCoach, Petracca elevated his game even further. He averaged an exceptional 119.4, with an outstanding 20 scores over 100, of which 11 were above 120, and his season-low score was a still-impressive 95. These achievements placed him third in overall points, trailing only behind Marcus Bontempelli and Tim English and fourth by average, behind Clayton Oliver, Bontempelli, and English.

During the 2022 season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, his seasonal average of 102.5 ranked him as the 14th-best midfielder in the game. He scored thirteen tons, five over 120, including 136, 139, 141 & 142. Those are some strong ceiling games! And in the first ten games of the season, he averaged 111. Alongside these top-end scoring elements were five scores below 80. We’ll address one of them in particular shortly. By the season’s conclusion, he was ranked eleventh for total points. Not a bad result for a guy who had a ‘down’ season in the eyes of many.

His SuperCoach season was even stronger. His average of 112.3 made him the 8th best midfielder by averages and seventh best for points. He ended 2022 as the ninth-highest scorer across the format. He got there by scoring twelve tons; he converted eight into scores over 120 and seven above 130. Some of these were absolute monsters. They included a 163 in the opening round and a career-high 189 against the Crows. He had just two scores below 80 all year and ended the season with an average of 120 from the final nine games.

One of the most remarkable aspects of Christian Petracca’s career has been his durability and consistent performance. He currently stands second on the list of players with 132 consecutive games played. This record highlights his physical resilience and underscores his mental toughness and commitment to maintaining peak performance levels. Petracca’s ability to remain a constant force on the field, game after game, season after season, is a rare and valuable trait, making him an indispensable asset for both the Melbourne Demons and fantasy football coaches.

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MY TAKE

The Melbourne Demons’ forward line has received a significant boost with the inclusions of Jack Billings and Shane McAdam, alongside the return to health of key players. This bolstering of the forward setup could have various implications for Christian Petracca’s role and output. A stronger forward line might lead to more scoring opportunities or a shift in Petracca’s responsibilities on the field.

One area where Petracca could unlock another level in his game is his accuracy in front of goal. He was 12th in the league for shots on goal but had a relatively low conversion rate, kicking 28 goals and 34 behinds from 87 shots, equating to a 32% accuracy. Improving his goal-kicking efficiency could significantly increase his scoring on-field and in fantasy leagues.

Petracca’s participation in centre bounces averaged 61% last season. This could increase, especially if Clayton Oliver is absent, providing Petracca more midfield time. During Oliver’s absence last year, Petracca’s centre-bounce attendance rose to over 80% in three of the first four games. His scoring potential might also increase with a focus on midfield duties, as evidenced by his averages without Clayton Oliver in the team – he went 112.6 in AFLFantasy and 124.3 in SuperCoach from 10 games.

The Demons’ early bye due to their opening-round game requires careful consideration when selecting players like Petracca, especially in balancing your team across the bye rounds. In the seven weeks leading up to Melbourne’s next bye in round 14, they face a series of teams that present favourable matchups for inside midfielders, making Petracca a strong early upgrade consideration if 2023 trends continue.

Petracca’s low level of scoring variation makes him a reliable premium player to own. However, in AFLFantasy, his infrequency of scoring above 120 points is a concern for a player priced at nearly $ 1 million. For such a high investment, he should ideally be a consistent Vice-Captain or Captain option, but his lack of ceiling games makes starting with him less appealing, though he remains a solid upgrade target. In SuperCoach, Petracca presents a different picture. His high ceiling and consistency make him a more compelling option from the start.

If you choose not to begin with him, no matter the format, he should be considered for an early inclusion in your squad.

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DRAFT DECISION

Christian Petracca emerges as a compelling choice for drafts. In SuperCoach formats, his high-scoring potential and consistency elevate him to an M1 position, making him a top-tier midfield selection. His ability to deliver substantial scores and his increased role in the Melbourne midfield positions him as a pivotal player in any SuperCoach team.

On the other hand, in AFLFantasy, while still a strong contender, he’s more suitably placed as an M2. This is due to his slightly lower frequency of hitting the highest scores compared to other elite midfielders, though his consistent scoring and durability still make him an invaluable asset. Regardless of the format, Petracca’s proven track record and role in a potentially more potent Melbourne lineup in 2024 make him a strategic and high-value pick in fantasy drafts.

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Possible DPP’s | Round Twelve

Before rounds 6, 12 and 18, the gang at Champion Data add some new DPP into the game. After the round, the first list of names and positions will be released. Historically, players need at least 35% to be considered for a new position allocation and at least four games played. So let’s see which players are locked, close or have no chance of getting DPP.

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ADD DEFENDER

Jayden Short

If you’ve tracked the publicly available data hoping to gain insights on future DPPs, seeing Jayden Short attending 67% of centre bounces last weekend isn’t good news. Over a week, he’s gone from someone I would’ve branded as ‘safe’ to gaining DEF status, as now to someone on the borderline. Currently sitting at 34% as a defender, he’s agonisingly close to the trigger of 35% to get the positional allocation. He might just miss out if we have another match like this against Port Adelaide on Sunday afternoon. Sadly, the injury to Jacob Hopper appears to have affected a midfield rotation shuffle for Richmond, and Short has seen a spike. Watch his role on Sunday with interest. He’s a chance for DEF/MID status, but no certainty. 

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Callum Mills

There was a period a few weeks ago when the Sydney Co-Captain was on track to gain defensive status. He was playing down back to cover the injury gaps to Dane Rampe and the McCartin brothers. While the chance was small after playing a heavy midfield role in round eight, any hope was dashed after suffering a calf injury early in round nine against the Dockers. So scrap him from the list. He won’t be getting DEF status heading into round twelve. And given the length of injury layoff he won’t get a positional gain in 2023.

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Dylan Williams

When the 2023 season concludes, and you review the year in hindsight, many will realise that having Dylan Williams on your side will have proven to be vitally important. And that’s for more than just his cash generation, as good as it’s been. Rather the forward has redeveloped himself and his game to become a central part of Port Adelaide’s back six. As a result, I’ve marked him down as a certainty to pick up DEF status and become a DEF/FWD. This will become crucial for us during the multi-byes and allow remarkable squad versatility until it’s time to trade him out at round fifteen. 

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ADD MIDFIELD

Jack Sinclair

Traditionally, players gaining MID status are some of the least relevant gains because they need to create a pathway to a higher scoring avenue within your 22. However, what the addition of midfield status does is create versatility and flexibility across your classic and draft sides.

Jack Sinclair has had an increasing presence at centre bounces for St Kilda. Impressively he’s getting enough time across half-back to pick up some of those uncontested possessions and marks and keep his scoring in the top tier of our available defenders. Over the past five weeks, his attendance varying from just over 20% right up towards over 60%. To gain midfield status, he’ll need a game that’s pushing the 50% of midfield time, he’s still determining, but he’s in the conversation. If he does get it, this, alongside his price post-bye, making him ripe for the picking, should see his ownership skyrocket heading into round thirteen.

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Chayce Jones

Cards on the table, I’m a Crows supporter. And I thought Chayce Jones was headed for the trade table or, even worse, a delisting at the end of 2023. Sadly, beyond his first dozen games, he’d been unable to showcase the potential that made him a top-ten draft selection. That’s all changed! What he’s been able to do over the start of this season has given him a career revival.

The former lockdown defender has found a home across the opposite wing to Lachie Sholl, where his toughness and gut running is crucial to the Crows ball movement. His value to fantasy coaches is with his defender status, but especially in drafts, the DEF/MID status could create some positional versatility, especially if you play through the bye rounds.

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Jake Stringer

Champion Data are the team behind the scenes that determine these positions. They’ve stated that a player’s position at centre bounces is a key factor in positional allocation. Over the past four weeks, Jack Stringer has attended 80%, 55%, 38% & 88% of centre bounces. As a result, one more game in this data territory should mean he gains MID/FWD status. Much like Jones above, his value is in drafts as a forward. However, the DPP could help get players on the field if your draft league plays through the byes. 

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Nick Daicos

The number one defender in the game by average & points has seen incremental growth in time in the midfield over the past five weeks. Nick Daicos has attended a variation of centre bounces from 17% to 63%. Like Sinclair, he’ll need a heavy midfield game this weekend to get DEF/MID status, and while it’s unlikely, if we see a midfield-heavy game as he did against the Crows (63%), it might just tip him into the threshold to get it.

Any DPP gain can add flexibility and versatility, and with the byes starting next week, should he (or anyone else) gain a position, it could unlock some moves for your squad.

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ADD FORWARD

Christian Petracca

Sometimes, as you head into the round ahead of the DPP movements, the data is overwhelmingly compelling, and the position status is guaranteed. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case with Christian Petracca. He’s close, but he will need a fair share of time starting inside forward fifty this weekend to guarantee the status allocation. CP5 has always had a level of time forward, but this year the split is tantalizingly close to him returning to our forward lines.

During the preseason series of the 50 most relevant, I flagged the potential of him gaining forward status. And it’s a reminder for us again that in our starting squad and early season trading cadence, we need to create space for this level of elite scoring that can become part of the game. Should this MID/FWD status land, between him and a few other gains, we might see a complete revolution of what is deemed the ‘top six’ forward for the 2023 season.

With the uncertainty around Clayton Oliver playing this week (and beyond), I’m not sold; we’ll get the heavy-forward time game needed for this DPP to pop.

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Sam Walsh

Lock this one up and throw away the key. This time next week, you’ll be able to select Sam Walsh as a forward. Since his return from injury, he’s been sensational, regularly posting large tons seemingly at will across all formats. The primary causation for the move has been to ease him back into the rigours of AFL.

Regardless of the causation, the positive outcome is that he could pick up forward status. He’s currently on the borderline of it, but as long as Michael Voss doesn’t release him back into a heavy midfield (like last week) role, he should pick up MID/FWD status.

The huge upside with him is that regardless of his future midfield/forward split, he’s shown his scoring is unaffected. So when you combine the current trend and his historical pedigree, we might be about to receive the new top forward by an average of 2023. While the upside is you’ll get a top-tier premium midfield in the forward line; the challenge will be finding the cash to land him.

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Max Gawn

Much like his teammate in Christian Petracca, the possible gain of forward status from either Max Gawn or Brodie Grundy was telegraphed all preseason due to the Demons two headed ruck monsters. To date, Max has become the one that Melbourne has used more forward, with Brodie taking the lead ruck role. Currently, the Demons skipper is sitting right on the 35% threshold. If Gawn can hold this percentage for one more week will get Gawn as an RUC/FWD.

His addition could be an absolute game-changer for multiple reasons. First, an early-season injury has impacted his price point to insanely low space. His round 14 bye round for him means you can maximise him through the rucks in the byes alongside any combination of Rowan Marshall, Tim English or Sean Darcy you have. Third, his potential DPP flexibility could open up loopholes and depth coverage without having to make trades. And lastly, his non-injury-affected average is 93 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102 in SuperCoach. All in all, if Gawn gains it, this could be the biggest addition of the year!

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Jackson Macrae

One week can make a significant difference. This time last week, I had Jackson Macrae as a 50/50 split of gaining MID/FWD status or missing it. After his win against the Crows on the weekend, I’ve got him heading north of 75% confidence picking up forward status. What’s been the cause of the growth? Data! In the period of one round, he’s gone from 35% as a forward upwards to 40%, according to the Herald Sun. Much like others on this list, his pending position status will be determined entirely on his role in the Bulldogs midfield this weekend.

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Will Ashcroft

Over the past few seasons since DPP gains have become an evolution, we’ve often seen high-end midfield talent gain FWD or DEF status as the clubs look to build their bodies and fitness to handle the rigours of AFL football. Players like North Melbourne’s Tom Powell or Hawthorn’s Connor MacDonald have had this happen over the journey. This isn’t and won’t be the case with Will Ashcroft. He’s spent some time as a forward, but he’s been used most of his game as a wingman and a centre-bounce midfielder. He’s zero chance of getting an additional position. Sorry to burst the bubble. 

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Dion Prestia

Two weeks ago, I was growing in confidence that we’d see Dion Prestia pick up MID/FWD status. The Tigers premiership midfielder had been one of the pieces that the coaching staff had used to create room for Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto to become the primary two midfielders at centre bounces. While the possible gain wouldn’t have added classic coaches, it sure would’ve recouped some of the loss of draft capital for coaches who play draft. Instead, due to this forward time increase, his scoring declined.

However, due to an injury to Jacob Hopper, I suspect the trend of last weekend will continue when his CBA’s start to return to normal. As much as I’d love to give some hope to owners, I don’t think it’s coming. Barring a drastic turn of events this weekend, he’ll maintain his pure midfield status.

What to do with Clayton Oliver?

Sunday evening, the Herald Sun confirmed what had, until that point, been a rumour. The newspaper reported that Clayton Oliver had suffered a hamstring injury and could miss up to four weeks of football. As a result, the fantasy community now has one of the best scorers of the season unavailable and teams are left pondering what to do with Clayton Oliver? 

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You Can Hold

Can you hold Clayton Oliver? Yes! It might seem odd to do it, but there’s genuinely a world where this could be a play. One of the reasons behind it is that Melbourne is yet to confirm the severity of the hamstring. That he could play out the last quarter with a hamstring injury might lend itself to not being a severe or a traditional injury. In 2023, we’ve already seen players like Sam Docherty and Tom Stewart return from injury well ahead of previously communicated timelines. This is Clayton’s first in-season soft tissue injury in his AFL career, so you could find a level of optimism to hold.

It is risky to play this out, especially in AFLFantasy, but that doesn’t mean it should be immediately discounted as a play. For example, if you are an Ollie Hollands owner, you could loophole his score from the bench with the Blues playing Friday night. A 70+ score is well within his capacity, which might be enough if you can continue an upgrade cadence with your other non-forced trades around it. Unquestionably you’ll need some luck to make this playout work, but at the very least, you must look at the option.

Holding him in DreamTeam and SuperCoach is a more viable play than AFLFantasy due to the limited number of trades available and the upcoming bye rounds. In these limited trade formats, I don’t know of any team with 20+ trades left, with many remaining in the middle portion of the teens. Coaches have to ask themselves in trading out of Clayton whether they will be able to find the cash generation and trade capital to get him after he returns from injury. In an ideal world, I don’t think anyone wants not to own Oliver in the run home. So choosing to trade out means you must create a pathway to owning him again. Something easier said than done.

Another element that we could hold is the impending multi-bye rounds. In SuperCoach & DreamTeam, we’ll run with a best 18 on the field during rounds 12 & 13 before. And thankfully, with only four & two teams respectively missing, they are arguably the two easier bye rounds to navigate without him. So yes, you’ll potentially have three weeks down on the premium output, but the fielding of the best 18 scorers in these bye rounds does minimise the impact for on-field scoring.

Do you have to hold? No! Do you have to trade? No! There are multiple ways of playing this game, and multiple approaches can and have resulted in success. The key here is to know yourself, your team, your appetite for risk & the outcomes you’re aiming for.

Imperfect Timing

There is never a good time for a player of Clayton’s scoring to be missing. The one upside is that owners who’ve had him for the majority of the year have been able to bank his phenomenal scoring and now have the salary space on top of him to be able to afford anyone they desire across any line.

The annoying part of the timing is that some of the best options ripe for the picking have next week off with their teams bye round. For example, Jack Steele looked like a million dollars and, due to a few injury-related hiccups, looks back to his best. Similarly, Andrew Brayshaw looks to have gotten over his sore knee after scoring well in the previous two weeks. Throw in Jack Sinclair, Lachie Neale, Luke Parker and Caleb Serong; we have many nice options.

They’re still all in play for teams with a league focus and don’t play through the byes. But if your focus is ranks, I cannot advocate trading into someone who’ll only be available for one week rather than the next.

Captaincy Consideration

Have you done some bye-round planning yet? And by that, have you created a visualisation plan of what your team looks like both now and again heading into round 16? While you might still need to complete the puzzle pieces, have you got the cadence and plans set up so that you know what the rhythm of your trades looks like? If not, I encourage you to do so as a matter of urgency.

Creating a plan like this makes life so much easier for many reasons, but for one of them, it helps inform the pathway to a ‘complete team.’ Some might be tempted to use the cash on top of Oliver to move him from one elite premium and split it into a couple of ‘almost’ or ‘hopeful’ premiums. While I understand the intention behind it, the reality is I couldn’t advocate for that as a strategy.

With Clayton Oliver, you have one of the most reliable 100+ scorers and someone who, in 2023 and years prior, has been one of the safest performers going around. It’s why often he’s had either the VC or C left on him for the year. But, regardless of a tag, the weather, the opponent or the game scenario, he finds ways to score well.

Everyone plays the game differently, and that’s the beauty of it. However, I’d only advocate trading Oliver to someone you feel comfortable placing the C or VC on most weeks. Don’t skinny down your captaincy options to try and force a completed side faster. Oliver is one of the best in the game, and I’d only be considering options that are inside the same scoring criteria.

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Popular Moves

Saturday night, there were two types of fantasy footy coaches: Zach Merrett owners and those without him. Merrett posted a monster 158 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 162 in SuperCoach against Richmond. He does make an obvious addition with matches against West Coast, North Melbourne and Carlton until his bye week off. Throw in that he maintains your bye structure, presenting a compelling case for trading into him.

The only caveat I’d throw in here is that historically players coming off the back of such a dominating game like this often receive extra attention from the opposition the next week. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles go all out to limit the impact of Zach. West Coast has been using a tagger recently, so don’t be surprised if one comes. It’s not a reason to fade him as an option, but coaches should know it is a possible outcome.

How many more weeks will people find a reason not to trade into Rory Laird? He’s coming off the back of six consecutive tons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and hasn’t dropped his scores under 97 in SuperCoach since round two. He’s bottomed out, with him just starting to make back some of the money he leaked due to a poor round one and a few red-vested ‘precautionary’ games.

There is still some concern in the community that his ‘calf niggle‘ is still an issue, but the reality is all we can do is make decisions with our information. And we have a player averaging 114 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and SuperCoach in the past five, and he is moving well. If you’ve gone this far without Laird, this Oliver injury could present the last ‘cheap’ space to trade into him.

Later in the week, I’ll release an article about some potential DPPs that’ll be added to the game next, but I’m optimistic we’ll receive Sam Walsh as a forward. Currently averaging over 110 across the formats, he looms as a genuine threat to Tim Taranto and Josh Dunkley as the top-averaging forward of the year. Getting your hands on higher-priced players like Walsh can be hard, but with Clayton’s injury, this could open up an easier path to getting him.

Is 2023 the year that Marcus Bontempelli finally wins himself a Brownlow Medal? After being an elite performer for most of his career, it’s finally translating to all formats of fantasy footy this year. Over multiple years ‘Bont’ has always been a top-tier scoring performer in SuperCoach, but he’s gone to another level this year. Nine tons from his ten matches, three scores over 140, and an average of 128 alongside him currently being the top scorer in the game make it hard not to desire to own him. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s ranked seventh highest for averages amongst pure midfielders, eighth for total points and hasn’t dropped his scoring under 90 all year. Throw in his five-round average of 119, and it’s pretty good reading.

Lastly, one demon down and another step up? That could be the case for Christian Petracca. In SuperCoach, he’s ranked sixth overall for total points, seventh by average and is on a run of eight consecutive tons. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s averaging 104.2, comprising six scores over 100. If you believe Oliver’s absence creates a bump in Trac’s midfield presence and scoring power, then he has the historical pedigree to match it with the best scorers in the game.

Possible DPP’s | Round Six

Before rounds 6, 12 and 18, the gang at Champion Data add some new DPP into the game. After the round, the first list of names and positions will be released. Historically, players need at least 35% to be considered for a new position allocation and at least four games. So let’s see which players are locked, close or have no chance of getting DPP.

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ADD DEFENDER

Harry Sheezel

He’s the #1 forward in the game and is one of the easiest positional gains ever. Harry Sheeezel has had one of the greatest starts we’ve ever seen from a first-year player. The more interesting conversation is when we should start viewing him as a ‘premium’ in our teams for the season. The beauty of this move is it now releases the pressure for coaches at D6.

Jack Ziebell

Jack Ziebell played exclusively as a defender like his teammate above in 2023. This role is identical to the one he held back in 2021, where he is taking kick in’s, controlling the play, and he became an important player in fantasy coaches’ success. Much like that year, he’s started as a midprice option delivering enough to be considered a premium on the current trends. A great early-season riser that’s about to become a DEF/FWD. 

Lachie Whitfield

In the offseason, Adam Kingsley telegraphed multiple role moves for the Giants established stars; one was for Lachie Whitfield to get back to his distributing role across halfback. We’ve seen him play in this role for the entirety of the season.

He is ripe for the picking! Not just because he’s getting DEF status allocated alongside his midfield eligibility, but against the Bombers, he started to get his old scoring game going and began to look like his former premium self. With many chasing the value of Tom Stewart or looking to get up and into Jordan Dawson, James Sicily or Nick Daicos, some astute owners might be getting a bargain should Whitfield be able to return to his 100+ averaging scoring in this role.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera

I love what NVM is doing at St Kilda and can see him becoming one of my favourite players. He rarely makes a poor decision and has the skills to back up his elite footy IQ. So it’s no surprise to see Ross Lyon move him into the back six and allow his skillset to propel his side forward out of the defensive half. His relevance is mostly in drafts, but for current owners, he’ll become a helpful boost in your backline stocks. If he’s sitting in the player pool, he’ll be well worth picking up if you can ahead of his likely DPP addition.

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Cam Guthrie

Flying under the radar in the DPP conversation is Geelong premiership player Cam Guthrie. The absence of Mitch Duncan and Tom Stewart has meant that the Cats coaching staff have flipped the magnets around and made some structural moves. One of those has been with Cam joining his brother Zach across halfback.

The return of Duncan & Stewart might tip him back into the midfield unit, but if he’s done enough to jag DEF status, this could be a brilliant addition. Last week against the Hawks, he saw a move back towards the midfield tile. He’s got multiple years of averaging over 100, and given his price point, he might be someone to grab immediately.

Lachie Ash

Another Giants ‘Lachie’ finds himself in the DPP discourse. Lachie Ash has the speed for days, and alongside Whitfield, he’s part of the revamped rebounding core of GWS under Adam Kingsley. He’s had a few good weeks recently and would be a handy gain in draft leagues. I’d be surprised if he’s not awarded DEF/MID status. 

Kane Farrell

This one is more draft and daily fantasy relevant, but Kane Farrell should pick up defender status. Late in 2022 and throughout this preseason, we saw the pear happily using him across halfback. This role has resulted through the season proper as Port have looked to shake up their back six. Depending on the depth of your draft league, he could become a helpful onfield option while, at worst, providing some bench depth. 

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ADD MIDFIELD

Will Day

So far, one of the season’s picks has been with Will Day as a midprice option in our backlines. The former halfback flanker has displayed his skills, competitiveness & workrate as he’s moved into an inside midfield role under the new-look Hawthorn midfield. He’s trending towards scoring enough to be someone we could consider holding for the season. Still, regardless of that discussion, the addition of midfield status and transition to a DEF/MID is a certainty. Lock it in!

Josh Rachele

One of the most exciting young players in the league is Josh Rachele. The Crows star is spending an increasing number of attendances at centre bounces, where he’s regularly at 30%-50% across the match. The club are trying to maximise his impact to win clerances. He then slides forward and creates chaos alongside Izak Rankine for opposition defenders. Like Will Day above and any other midfield gains we do pick up, it’s more squad versatility than anything else that’s gained. He’s not highly owned in classic, but he’s had a monster four weeks for owners in the draft and daily fantasy. 

Darcy Wilmot

The young Lion is listed as a defender but has been playing most of the season across Brisbane’s wings. So throw him the DEF/MID status. It’ll be handy having the likes of Wilmot, Day, Ginbey & to a lesser extent, the Chesser and Constable all being eligible to be flipped through the midfield or backlines as necessary.

Jordan Dawson

He has spent the past two weeks playing a heavy centre-bounce midfield role. But even with another week in the role, it’s too small of a sample size for him to gain midfield status. He’s moire likely to get it heading into round 12.

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ADD RUCK

Charlie Comben

I’m not sold that this DPP falls his way, but Charlie Comben has been the secondary ruck option behind Todd Goldstein. In addition, he spent a good chunk of round one as the lead ruck after Tristan Xerri went down injured. He’s got a few owners in SuperCoach, and the RUC/FWD DPP could be handy for them. However, he might be worth a look in deeper draft leagues or category leagues, especially with the volume of ruck injuries we’ve already seen this year. 

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ADD FORWARD

Christian Petracca

There’s been some hope in the community that CP5 would get MID/FWD status during the season. I was hoping for it too, but the data doesn’t indicate it’s coming. Despite spending sometime forward this week against West Coast and kicking multiple goals, he’d still attended an average of 71% of centre bounces over the first three games. There will need more than a full game inside forward 50 to move the DPP needle. Sorry!

Bailey Smith

Take this one to the bank. This time next week, we’ll have Bailey Smith eligible as a MID/FWD. He was a fraction away from having it in the preseason, but his MID/FWD split has been over 50% in the forward half. The resulting heavy forward time has seen a dint to his scoring, with one ton in AFLFantasy and an average of 88, while in SuperCoach, he’s going at 83 and has posted just one ton. In a few weeks, he’ll likely hit his basement and will rightly be someone many will target as part of upgrade season.

Jackson Macrae

A few weeks ago, I thought Jackson Macrae was a real shot at getting forward status added. He regularly attended only 40% of CBA’s, and the rest of the time was playing as a high half-forward for the Dogs. However, I wonder if he will gain forward status after last week. It’ll take a significant change from Luke Beveridge and potentially an exclusive forward role this week against Port Adelaide for him to get MID/FWD status. It’s still a chance, but it’s unlikely. 

Taylor Adams

Since Taylor Adams was traded to Collingwood, he’s been a staple part of the Magpies midfield when he’s been available for selection. However, in 2023 the vice-captain is yet to attend 50% of centre bounces in a single game. The move out of the midfield core has been largely due to the arrival of Tom Mitchell as he’s moved to the fifth rotation spot. As a result, he’s splitting his time between the midfield and the Pies forward half. The lack of midfield time has hurt his scoring, so even with a DPP addition, he’s not someone you’d be considering in classic. Although, in draft leagues, it’s a different discussion, I suspect he’ll move from coaches benches to become a fieldable forward and likely strengthen your overall scoring power. 

Cam Mackenzie

After attending sixteen centre bounces in round one, Cam Mackenzie has yet to attend a combined sixteen between rounds 2-4. The young Hawk has shown moments of brilliance in his first month of AFL. But he has started to play more as a half-forward as Day, Nash & Ward have increased their midfield presence. He’s one of the most highly owned cash cow midfielders, and the potential DPP would add some further forwardline depth & possibly add some increased life on our sides.

Zaine Cordy

I’ll be clear. This isn’t draft-relevant, daily fantasy relevant or classic-relevant. But Zaine should get FWD status added. So much has been made of the Saints lack of talls in the forward line, resulting in Cordy being moved forward. He’s not worth considering, but the DPP addition is warranted.

Ben Keays

Late last year, we saw Matthew Nicks deploy Ben Keays as part of the Crows forward line. The thought process was that Ben could use his endurance running to get up and down the ground and become an extra midfielder around the ground. While also using his defensive ability to hold the opposition’s best rebounder to account. The probable addition of MID/FWD means he moves from an ‘underperforming’ midfielder to likely a team’s second-best forward. A worthy DPP gain should the gang at Champion Data see fit. 

#22 Most Relevant | Christian Petracca

A player can slide in and out of favour in the eyes of the fantasy football community. Sometimes for valid reasons, other times for no valid reason. Entering into the 2023 season, the conversations around Christian Petracca have been minimal, but he’s got the potential to be a topline midfielder again this year. 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Christian Petracca
Age: 27
Club: Melbourne Demons
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score: 
142 Vs Western Bulldogs (AFLFantasy)
189 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
153 Vs Port Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2021)
189 Vs Adelaide | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average: 
102.5 (AFLFantasy)
112.4 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $618,600
AFLFantasy Price: $908,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $930,500

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

If you were drafting an AFL side from scratch, Christian Petracca would be one of the first players selected. He’s one of the league’s most elite players. Whether deployed as a centre-bounce midfielder or across the half-forward line, CP5 provides the opposition with a headache wherever he plays.

One of the keys behind what makes Petracca so good is the combination of his high footy IQ to see a game-changing option, but then he has the courage and the skill to make it happen. Last year he ranked first in the competition for goals, assists, and inside 50s per game. He’s also ranked inside the top twenty for metres gained, disposals and contested possessions.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, his seasonal average of 102.5 ranked him as the 14th-best midfielder in the game. He scored thirteen tons, five over 120, including 136, 139, 141 & 142. Those are some strong ceiling games! And in the first ten games of the season, he averaged 111. Alongside these top-end scoring elements were five scores below 80. We’ll address one of them in particular shortly. By the season’s conclusion, he was ranked eleventh for total points. Not a bad result for a guy who had a ‘down’ season in the eyes of many.

His SuperCoach season was even stronger. His average of 112.3 made him the 8th best midfielder by averages and seventh best for points. He ended 2022 as the ninth-highest scorer across the format. He got there by scoring twelve tons; he converted eight into scores over 120 and seven above 130. Some of these were absolute monsters. They included a 163 in the opening round and a career-high 189 against the Crows. He had just two scores below 80 all year and ended the season with an average of 120 from the final nine games.

These averages include a game that was an outlier. In round eleven, he scored 40 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 53 in SuperCoach. He wasn’t tagged, rather, he was battling a virus and later, after the defeat, coach Simon Goodwin conceded he probably shouldn’t have played. While it hurt coaches on him during the season, it does build in some additional value for coaches keen on him in 2023.

During the Dees premiership season of 2021 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored 14 tons, seven above 120 and five were higher than 130. To go with his ceiling and consistency of tons was a strong basement with no scores under 78. His average of 110 meant he was ranked eighth by averages in the game. Petracca scored more points than Zach Merrett, Sam Walsh, Marcus Bontempelli, Bean Keays and teammate Clayton Oliver.

For SuperCoach, he had an equally as strong season. He posted thirteen tons for the year, eight above 120 and three monsters of 145 or higher. He also dropped one score below 80 all year. By the close of the 2021 season, he finished the year ranked sixteenth for total points and his average of 111.4 just snuck inside the top 20 overall.

These two seasons have validated his 2020 breakout season. Where the covid bubble affected game length, he averaged an adjusted 108 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 117.5 in SuperCoach.

Alongside three seasons of being a topline premium midfielder is the durability variable. There’s nothing more frustrating than jumping off on a premium. It causes you to potentially slide behind the pack as you make fix-up trades while others keep surging forward with their moves. With Petracca, h hasn’t missed a game of footy in four years and just one in six. Nobody can predict injuries, but based on history, you feel an element of confidence with Christian.

I’ve been playing fantasy football for over a decade, and normally I don’t get too concerned or pay significant attention to player ownership percentages. But I keep an eye on them to get insights into what the ‘group think’ or ‘mob mentality’ is doing. What can give you an edge over the pack is if your split on a player’s forecast performance, sometimes ownership can be the separator. I nearly fell off my chair when I saw that Trac has an ownership of 3.57% in AFLFantasy, 5% in SuperCoach and 3% in DreamTeam. For a player with a safe 100+ average history and the potential to push top-eight midfield numbers, that’s criminally low. He was already on my radar, but seeing that few on him combined with his known potential has made him quite a tempting starter.

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MY TAKE

Over the last four weeks of the season we saw Christian Petracca start to take on a significant role change. Over the season he was a 75% centre bounce attendance midfielder. Yet, in the last month he attended just 50% of CBA’s. At the same time we saw a spike in CBA’s for Angus Brayshaw? Was this the causation? Or was it correlation alongside the the fact that he was battling some niggles in the back half of the season? Ultimately only the football and Christian will know.

But what it did do is create another damaging option in the Demons forward line. Does he stay as high 70’s CBA midfielder this year? Or do the club choose to use his skills and weapons more in the forward half of the ground. If they do, then there’s a universe I see him picking up DPP and becoming MID/FWD. I wouldn’t select him on the hoped basis of a DPP gain alone, but I would be factoring it as a consideration.

Last year we saw Luke Parker, Tom Liberatore, Rowan Marshall Bailey Smith and Marcus Bontempelli at times across the season gain forward status. The year prior it was Josh Kelly. At some point in 2023 we will get some new premium options in the forward division. The reason I bring it up is because I’m seeing teams go heavy on the premiums this year in starting squads. And it makes sense given the value we have. But factoring in potential additions doesn’t appear to be in the periphery of the fantasy community. There’s a real chance that the demons split CP5’s time more forward and he becomes someone we’ll need to factor into our upgrade plans.

I’m considering Petracca as an upgrade target; this isn’t just because I’m watching what might happen regarding a DPP addition. That’s a factor, but not the defender. Historically, he always gives you a look to get him in cheap with a few poor scores. Between rounds 11-13, he averaged 71.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 74 in SuperCoach. The year prior, between rounds 7-9, he averaged 90 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 88 in SuperCoach. These aren’t disasters when you own him for a season because it’s levelled out when he has multiple weeks where he averages north of 120. But these pockets of games create an opportunity for coaches to pick up a premium performer at a discounted price point.

There is a little bit of meat on the premium bone, so if you’re starting him, your expectation is an increase of his average back up towards 110 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and pushing back towards 120 in SuperCoach. That’ll likely place him as a VC/C candidate in your early rounds. I don’t trust him enough to be that reliable, so it’s an upgrade city for me!

DRAFT DECISION

Based on his 2022 seasonal data Christian Petracca will get ranked as the 14th best midfield inAFLFantasy/DreamTeam. That’d place him as an M2; that’s about the range for him. And he has the upside to becoming an M1 and pushing to be a top-ten averaging midfielder. Getting him as an M2 will see him heard off draft boards in the late third-early fourth range.

In SuperCoach, he’s got the capacity to be selected as an M1, but I need help seeing him getting selected there. So instead, he’s an early M2. He’ll likely get taken in the range of the late second and into the third round.

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Upgrade Targets After The Bye | Round 14

The multi-bye rounds are over. We now have six teams that have no more scheduled rests for the remainder of the season. Here’s a club-by-club breakdown of potential upgrade targets who have had their bye round.

During the preseason, I ranked Lachie Neale as the #2 most relevant player in fantasy footy, and to date, he’s delivered! Arguably, he’s had a better football season than his Brownlow medal year of 2020. Neale is one of the highly owned premiums across the fantasy, and that’s because he was priced with a discount due to an injury affected 2021. He’s currently ranked second overall in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam for total points and first in SuperCoach. If you don’t have him by now, the damage is done, and you’re well out of contention this year. The best scenario for you is to keep going against him and hope for an injury. If you haven’t got him now, you can’t get him in now at the top price. Go and look for some value elsewhere. 

There is only one format you’re considering a trade into Daniel Rich as an upgrade, and that’s SuperCoach. Off the back of averaging 107 last year, he’s seen a drop of 14 points pre-game. As a result, he’s gone from being one of the clear top options to now being ranked 15th among defenders by average and 10th for total points. He’s posted seven tons from thirteen matches but is in a hard space to consider him. He’s not a value buy, he’s not a clear top-tier defender, and at 9% ownership, he isn’t super rare even. It’s why for me, I’d probably look elsewhere.

The club has already confirmed that Dayne Zorko will miss this week. He’s been a rollercoaster to own this year, and even when back, he’s shown a combination of injury and positional volatility. So I couldn’t advocate for anyone to jump onto owning him.

Hugh McCluggae continues to be close but not a premium scorer enough to be someone I’d advocate trading into. We’ve got some super value across the formats, and as good as he is, I think there are cheaper options that will outperform him. Pass

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One of the best purchases this year has been getting Darcy Cameron. And crazily enough, he probably presents as the ruck with the best matchup this week with him coming up against a ruckless GWS. If you owned him, it’s happy days for another month until Brodie Grundy returns. To trade into him outside of AFLFantasy, it’s not a play I feel confident in. Because in the limited trade formats, you shouldn’t be looking at a short-term move but rather something that holds until the end of the year. As good as he’s been, the addition of Grundy back into the team will create chaos on his scoring ceiling. 

Jack Crisp is the most reliable and consistent player. He might not boast the ceiling of other players in this line, but his durability and consistency make him a joy to own. In his past eight games, he’s just posted one score over 120 across the formats. Unless you are trading into him as a defensive move, I’d probably look to be aggressive and chase some cheaper options with the ceiling—players such as Lachie Whitfield or Aaron Hall, who are high-risk, high-reward guys. 

It’s more of a legacy-driven purchase, but Scott Pendlebury still holds a special place in long-time coaches hearts. But his average in the low 80’s in AFLFantasy and low 90’s in SuperCoach just isn’t enough. Even if Jordan De Goey is absent for a significant time, I think his time as a desirable fantasy option has passed him by. 

It was only a matter of time before Andrew Brayshaw became a bonafide fantasy star. As we turn for the final few months of the year, he’s currently the #1 ranked player in AFLFaantasy/Dreameam by averages and total points. In SuperCoach, he’s ranked 12th for averages and 9th for total points. On a current three-game trend, he’s ranked 20th by averages in SuperCoach and 4th in AFLFantasy. It’s never a bad move to bring in a player of his calibre. However, the coach’s challenge will be balancing the value of trades to get up to him and the cash required to get him. My only red flag is that his dockers have a much harder fixture to end the season than the start. Over the next month, they play Carlton, Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Sydney. These teams have sometimes used negating / defensive-minded midfielders, and Andy is certainly a target to receive some attention. 

Luke Ryan continues to fly under the radar as a premium defensive option in people’s minds. His seasonal average is down slightly on what he delivered last year, but in his past three, he’s ranked 8th in SuperCoach for defenders going at 114.7 and 5th in AFLFantasy, going at 106.7. If you believe that trend is a sign of things to come and not just a ‘hot steak’, then Luke’s one to target seriously. Historically, it’ll be a stretch to argue that, but he’s certainly a solid pick if nothing else. 

There was plenty of love for Caleb Serong in the preseason. In the last five games of 2022 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored 94, 75, 118, 117 & 116. That’s an average of 104 in that stretch, but he went at 117 in the final three. The trend is similar in SuperCoach. He ended the year with 103, 82, 115, 135 & 103. Again, that’s a five-game average of 107 and a last three of 117. However, an early-season knee injury affected some early season form and some games of footy as a result were missed. However, in the past six weeks, he’s averaged 102 in AFLFantasy and 109 in SuperCoach. He’s still some value, and if he can hold scoring like that, he’ll be a solid selection. 

One of the bargains of the year to date has been James Sicily. An average of 96.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 116.8 in SuperCoach has been a phenomenal return from an ACL injury. He’s one of the most highly owned defenders across the formats, and if you don’t own him as good as he has been, I’d be telling you to look elsewhere. However, the damage has been done; if you’ve gone this far without him, you must hold that course. As good as he’s been and will likely continue being, you need to keep going against the crowd and hope for some luck to slide your way.

If you’re looking at Tom Mitchell as an option, your probably tricking yourself into it. Under Sam Mitchell, the Hawks game style has evolved, and he’s no longer required to play a role in the midfield. ‘Titch’ is still getting his fair share of centre bounces, but his consistent scoring isn’t there. He’s averaging more than 30 points per game, less than last year in SuperCoach and 20 points in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. I’m all about taking a leap of faith on a player, but I’ve seen nothing that would give me any confidence in leaping at him. There are better options than him.

When I looked at the most popular traded-out players last week and saw Christian Petracca in some formats, I nearly fell off my chair. Yes, he’s had a poor three games with an average of 74 in SuperCoach and 72 in AFLFantasy. But before that, he was going at 116 in SuperCoach and 111 in AFLFantasy. Whenever a player has a few poor weeks when historically they are a premium performer, the question coaches have to ask is WHY? In one of these matches, he was ill and was reportedly close to not playing. The following week he was still shaking off the flu. That leaves us with just the one game that needs an explanation. On the Queen’s Birthday clash, he had 32 touches and scored 99 in SuperCoach and 86 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. That’s hardly a disaster. For me, CP5 is one of the best value buys after the bye. He’s not unique, but he’s terrific value. You could even place the VC on him tonight if you wish. 

Cast your mind back to the 50 most relevant series we do every preseason; I made this comment about Clayton Oliver. “Start him and reap the benefit or be prepared to pay for him because he never has a bad game.” That call seems to have held, given he’s had just one score in SuperCoach under 99 and one under 91 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam all year. He’s also turned the lack of ceiling talk in AFLFantasy into the myth. He’s scored over 110 in eight games, including a season-high of 151. Trading into Oliver is never a bad choice, but it’s not a value-for-money selection. 

Looking for some value to finish off your backlines? Then Christian Salem should be on your radar. A round one sub-affected single-digit score has affected not just his seasonal average but also his current price. Since his return from injury in the previous two games, he’s posted 91 & 94 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 83 & 104. These scores reflect how he scored in 2021 when he averaged in the low 90s across the formats. The premier format to pick him this week would be in AFLFantasy due to the weekly adjustments, he’s already had three price changes and has dropped $124k. Salem is now just $15k more expensive than Nick Daicos. He’s unlikely to average 95+ over the next few months, but he’s got the capacity to be close enough and save you over $100k to place that cash onto another player upgrade. 

With the absence of Braydon Preuss and Tim English this week, coaches are scampering for a solution to the ongoing headache of the ruck division. Enter Luke Jackson, the fantasy community’s RUC/FWD great hope. The challenge is that he’s not had the ‘breakout’ season that many had forecast. In his ruck sharing role with Max Gawn, it’s been eight weeks since his last ton, and in the previous four matches and he’s had just one score over 80. However, he will ruck solo over the coming weeks, so it’s safe to assume he should score more than his current output.

But what can he do? Tonight he comes up against arguably one of the most restrictive ruckmen in Oscar McInerney. The weeks after, it’s Reilly O’Brien and should Max miss the again; he’ll ruck solo against Mark Blicavs/Rhys Stanley combo. I don’t hate it as a trade option in AFLFantasy, but in SuperCoach and DreamTeam, with trades starting to dry up you want to make sure that the moves you make are season long plays, not just a few week fix.

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Have we all forgotten about Aaron Hall? He was the must-have premium of 2021, and he started the year averaging 99.5 in AFLFantasy and 105 in SuperCoach over the opening month of the year before injuries hit. He returned from his layoff in round 13, and while he wasn’t at his regular scoring proficiency, he showed plenty of his trademark dash and aggressive ball movement. Hall is considerably cheaper than his starting price and has the scoring legacy to be someone who could genuinely be the top-scoring defender over the season’s final few months. The football will spend plenty of time in the Roos backline, his ownership percentage is low, and his scoring upside is as good as any. Aaron holds all elements needed for coaches to make a late-season run, but are you brave enough to pick him? 

How risk averse are you? Jed Anderson is the ultimate risk vs reward option. He’s played just thirteen games of AFL in the past 18 months, and this year alone has put up scores under 40 and scores over 140. In his past three matches in AFLFantasy, he scored two tons, averaging 107.7 and going along at104 in SuperCoach. He’s the significant value forward play when you contrast his price vs potential output, at just over $460k in SuperCoach and under $740K In AFLFantasy. If you can’t get up to the big dog premiums in the forward line, he’s a cheaper option that could match it with some of them on the run home. 

With all the issues we’ve had in the ruck department, it feels odd to be considering Todd Goldstein as an option in SuperCoach, but he legitimately could be the right play for some teams. Since Tristan Xerri went down injured in that format, he’s averaged 111. Even once Xerri has re-joined the team, he’s maintained the #1 ruck status and been going at 103. The additional bonus is that he has RUC/FWD status, so he will enable genuine versatility within your squad, especially if you own Tim English or Brynn Teakle. 

The leap into genuine premium status for Jy Simpkin is still yet to happen. In his final eleven games last year, he went at an average of 105 across the formats. However, so far in 2022, he’s managed just the four tons and is seemingly well off the pace from his potential. Although thankfully for non-owners, his current season performance hasn’t hurt you, the question is now, what can he do in the next few months. If you’re low on cash but happy to put some blind faith into someone with the upside potential, Jy could be the guy. 

AAMI Community Series Review | Blues Vs Demons

The beloved preseason community series got underway at Marvel Stadium. While the Blues started strong, the demons flew home late to only narrow lose the game. But let’s be honest, it’s the fantasy footy research we are here for. So here’s my take on the Blues and the Demons clash.

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Max Gawn

Spent his time splitting 70/30 in the ruck with Jackson, when he wasn’t in the ruck he sat behind play for plenty of marks. He looked great in the role but important to keep in mind there was no Steven May. That all being said, if you were keen on Gawn before this game then there’s no reason not to be now. Looked very lively and competed well at every contest.

We wrote about him earlier in the preseason for the 50 most relevant, check it out here.

Clayton Oliver & Christian Petracca

Never got out of first gear but still looked so sharp and clever with the footy. Oliver is just so good in the inside and quick with his disposal while Petracca looked fantastic offensively at all stages. Luke Jackson Some of his ruck work is absolutely elite for such a young player. He should be a hit out to advantage beast in years to come. He followed up his ruck work with getting busy around the contest, but it won’t be enough to select him even despite his additional forward status.

We wrote about them both earlier in the preseason for the 50 most relevant. For Clarry, check it out here. And CP5 here.

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Patrick Cripps

This was the surprise packet for me. Not because he isn’t good enough to dominate a preseason game but because of the way he went about it. I haven’t seen Cripps so fit, strong and quick in the contest in years. He really did run rings around the strong Melbourne midfield and the Blues dominating the overall centre clearances reflected that. If you weren’t super keen on him prior to this game you may choose to tread cautiously…but at his price it’s undeniable there’s already built in value, and if he can get back to anywhere near his best it’ll have been a worthwhile pick.

George Hewett

Did exactly what we wanted to see. Spent nearly all his time in the centre of the ground, and more importantly, won plenty of the footy – something we needed to see from him as he’s predominantly been a defensive midfielder in the past. He passed the eye test from me and I noticed his spread from stoppage was really good. He was a little unlucky to be burnt on some short passes so I wouldn’t worry about his mark tally of 0. Just the 1 tackle as well which isn’t the George Hewett I know. I’m the real stuff I expect him to fill up a few more stat lines.

We wrote about him earlier in the preseason for the 50 most relevant, check it out here.

Adam Cerra

Started out slowly but built into the game as it went on. There’s no doubting he’ll be spending plenty of time in the middle and it was evident how clean he is with the footy in close. Unfortunately, I didn’t see him spread too much from stoppage, and a few of his touches were easy ones. The game was a bit more contested than usual for a preseason game and you could easily use that performance as a good indicator for growth. If you were already keen there’s no reason not to be after that performance.

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Corey Durdin

Looks a handy young player. Super quick and agile as well as doing some clever things with the footy. He won’t be a large scorer, and there may be an injury cloud over him now – but he could be somebody you tuck away at M8 if there’s a shortage of rookies.

Matt Kennedy

Was everywhere and looked dangerous just about every time he had it. Has a seriously good pair of hands on him and some impressive goal sense for a player that used to be more of a contested midfielder. When he did spend time in the midfield he was just as eye catching though – he’s awkwardly priced so I couldn’t go near it but Voss may have helped him unlock some of his potential this year.

#35 Most Relevant | Christian Petracca

Everything went right for Christian Petracca and the Melbourne Football Club in 2021, resulting in a Norm Smith Medal and a drought-breaking premiership. The question everyone wants to know is, can CP5 continue his dominance entering into a new year?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Christian Petracca
Age: 26
Club: Melbourne Demons
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score: 
153 Vs Port Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
173 Vs Port Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
153 Vs Port Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2021)
173 Vs Port Adelaide| SuperCoach (2021)

2021 Average: 
110.8 (AFLFantasy)
111.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $606,200
AFLFantasy Price: $930,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $945,300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

After generations of disappointment, the Melbourne faithful can finally breathe. 2021 was the season that the premiership drought and one of the primary reasons for it was the emergence of Christian Petracca from an outstanding player to one of the league elite. He now has the Premiership and Norm Smith medal to prove he belongs as one of the best players in the competition.

He ranked first in the league by averages as the top player for score involvements and inside ’50s. He was fifth-best in the competition for contested possessions, eight for metres gained, tenth for disposals and twelfth for clearances. It was a complete and elite season from CP5.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored 14 tons, seven above 120 and five were higher than 130. To go with his ceiling and consistency of tons was a strong basement with no scores under 78. His average of 110 meant he was ranked eighth by averages in the game. Petracca scored more points than Zach Merrett, Sam Walsh, Marcus Bontempelli, Bean Keays and teammate Clayton Oliver.

For SuperCoach, he had an equally as strong season. He posted thirteen tons for the year, eight above 120 and three monsters of 145 or higher. He also dropped just once score below 80 all year. By the close of the 2021 season, he finished the year ranked sixteenth for total points and his average of 111.4 just snuck inside the top 20 overall.

If you play the classic formats, aka ‘salary cap’, you’ll know that the correct timing of owning a player can make all the difference. And as good as Christian was in the front half of the season if you timed it right, you would’ve owned one of the form midfielders across the formats.

This scoring backs up his breakout season of 2020. The year in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam, he averaged 86.4 (adjusted 108) consisted of him scoring 2 tons, five additional scores between 90-99, plus four extra scores over 80. Across the 2020 season, he had just two scores below 73 all year, and if you want to understand it based on the adjusted scoring (of x 1.25), then his lowest score of the year was an 86. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 117, scored 13 tons from 17 games, went over 130 in nine games and just once went below 80.

To go with the past few years of high-performance scoring is near-flawless durability. In the previous five seasons, he’s missed just one match since 2017 and missed none in the last three. So the risk in selecting Christian is minimal, and the reward is substantial.

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MY TAKE

Twelve months ago, the questions surrounding Christian Petracca were around whether or not he could deliver the same elite scoring of 2020 into the full-length games. The answer was stamped with a definitive yes in 2021. What makes him so consistent and nearly impossible to stop with his fantasy scoring ceiling and basement is that he scores every column. He wins the inside and out ball, works hard defensively and punishes opposition in the forward half of the ground. If you can average 25 possessions per game and more and have your mark, tackle and goal columns equally to ten or higher, you stand a strong chance of averaging over 110 most seasons.

It feels like it’s just a matter of time wherein SuperCoach will deliver a 120+ seasonal average. Given that Christian is such an impactful player, I can see it happening as early as this season if he can tidy up some of the more wasteful moments in his game. Some might believe regression was the only possible outcome given his strong season last year, and I disagree while I understand that narrative.

One thing that’s evident with Petracca is that he’s one of the most focussed and driven footballers. He’s tenacious. He wants to be the best. He’s not just satisfied with a premiership and a norm smith medal. He wants multiple. The insatiable motivation like this would give prospective owners confidence that he won’t rest on the past few seasons results.

Nothing can be taken away from his great season last year, but he has a slightly lower ‘consecutive 100’s’ history compared to other top mids. His best was five last year in AFLFantasy, while in SuperCoach, it was just four. Again, not horrible, but its elements like this can be a factor in fantasy coaches eyes to target players as either a must start or someone you consider an upgrade.

If you’re starting with CP5, you’ll be selecting him as one of your weekly VC/C candidates in the opening rounds, and he does have the ceiling (130+) to be able to give owners confidence that he can be that for you. If you look over his average of the final nine games, you could even build an argument that he’s also got the value of up to eight points per game in his starting price.

As good as Petracca should be in 2022, the question is whether it will be good enough? Last year we saw the return of some stunningly high midfielders. In many coaches eyes, jack Steele, Touk Miller, Tom Mitchell and Jack Macrae are certainties for the upper echelons again? From this proposed top tier of midfielders, is Petracca in the next bunch? Is he too far away from the best starting midfielders and, as a result, only be targeted as an upgrade? Conversely, can he get close enough to the big boys and provide some value and allow coaches a chance to save some cash to reinvest elsewhere.

The answer you have to that will probably inform the best action for you to pursue with him. I believe CP5 will average between 107-112 this year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and is someone I’ll target as an upgrade option. I think he elevates his season scores in SuperCoach and goes past the 115 barriers. He’s in the consideration camp for a starter in that format.

DRAFT DECISION

The fact Christian Petracca hasn’t missed a game in three seasons will not be lost on draft day if you can get a midfielder with proven 110+ history and available every week. In UltimateFooty, he’ll head off the draft board likely in the second to the early third round and will be someone’s M1. For SuperCoach, he’ll be off the board at M2 and will likely get snagged in the third round of a draft. I think he’s one of the first 30 players selected across formats.

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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Three | Patreon Exclusive

Lachie Whitfield

KANELachie Whitfield’s upside is as good as it gets. Having a defender who can average 120 is unheard of, but that’s the ceiling Whitfield possesses. 
In 2019 he averaged 114 points, but when you remove his two injury impacted scores, that average rises to 122. 
In 2020 he averaged 107 adjusted points, but when you remove his concussion impacted game, that average jumps to 113. 
In 2021 he averaged 95 points, but when you remove his concussion impacted game that average goes to 100. 
I think you catch my drift now. When Whitfield is on the field and healthy, he’s one of the best scorers in the game, let alone as a back or forward. It’s worth noting too that in draft you have a time on ground injury threshold that allows you to avoid a lot of these types of scores and field your emergency. 
Clearly, the other factor you have to acknowledge is that for whatever reason Whitfield does miss games. This year it was a nasty liver injury in the preseason that saw him miss the opening six games of the season. 
There also is some concern about what role he has in the Giants team. Whitfield has been deployed as deep as the Giants kick in taker who attacks from D50 or as high as a half-forward who pushes into the midfield and roams the ground. I don’t see these different roles yielding massively different outputs but it’s not as clear cut as other players like Jake Lloyd. 
I’m always drawn to the upside and Whitfield is the type of guy that any season could be the most valuable player in the game and if you’re chasing premierships that’s exactly what you want. 
MJ12 months ago I would have argued like Taranto Lachie Whitfield is a top tier guy. In fact, a case could’ve been made that he’s the player you should pick with the first pick in a new keeper league.
However, in the eyes of some, the concerns are starting to build. For me, they aren’t significant enough to scare me from picking him. However, it’s probably enough to fade him a tier or two.
When fit he’s a jet, but the games missed and in game injuries are slowly building. From a ‘glass half full’ perspective, none of these injuries really are related and are more on the ‘unlucky’ scale than anything else. 
Over the past three season we’ve seen him as one of the most valuable commodities in the draft as both a defender and forward. In 2019 he averaged 113 from 16 games, which featured 13 tons and a likely career high 190. 11 of his 15 games in 2020 where a BCV adjusted 100+ score, while Kane has already touched on his 2021 season.   
Whitfield is a kick first player, and even when tagged still uses his elite endurance to get into damaging spaces.
With the departures of Callum Mills and Rory Laird from the fantasy backline it opens up the possibility of Lachie being the top defender for 2022. I for one believe he will be. 
There is a risk that he becomes a midfielder only in the future, but given his positional versatility he should have multiple seasons where he’s a top tier defender or forward should that eventuate. 

Christian Petracca

KANEIt’s been an incredible past two seasons for Christian Petracca. He’s played all 39 home and away games and averaged 110 points, which puts him top 10 for total points across that time. 
The incredible part of Petracca’s game at the moment is his consistency. Only once this year did he dip below 80 and 14 times he delivered a ton. One of the main reasons for his consistency to me is his score build. In 2021 he averaged 29 disposals, 14 contested possessions, five marks, four tackles and a goal a game. There’s literally no category he’s deficit in. Additionally, he doesn’t get the tag because there’s no one who can match his power in the contest, movement around the ground and forward craft inside 50. 
The thing I think a lot of people are missing is his scoring power. In the last 12 games of the season, which stretches from Round 15 post bye all the way to the Grand Final, he averaged 117 points. In that span he reeled off 10 tons, five of which were 125+. This indicates to me there’s room for Petracca to improve on that career best average of 111 in the upcoming seasons. 
Throw in the likelihood that he’ll finish his career as a mid-forward and there’s not a lot not to like about Trac!
MJChristian Petracca is one of my favourites to own in a keeper league. The breakout took longer than keeper coaches wanted, but now that it’s happened it’s a thing of beauty.
With the adjusted game time and scores of 2020, it’s always challenging to put too much weight into the breakout. While he delivered an adjusted 108 keeper coaches will feel validated in his scoring potential after his 2021 season. 
In 2021 he averaged 110.8, scored 14 tons including 7 over 120. Oddly, he had a seven games stretch midseason where he had only 2 tons. But the front and back end of the season was fire!  CP5 averaged 115 over the first 6 and again 115 in the last 10. So arguably, he’s still got some more upside in him.
Equally as valuable as his scoring ability is his durability. Petracca has missed only one game in five years. I believe he’s the best player in the game right now, and opposition coaches can attest that night now he’s near impossible to stop. 
As we discussed in the podcast, don’t be shocked to see him regaining MID/FWD DPP in various parts of his career not just in his final few seasons. 

Callum Mills

KANEWe finally saw the role change we’d all been waiting for in 2021 from Callum Mills and he didn’t disappoint. 
Mills averaged 110 from his 18 games, but it jumps to 112 points if you remove Round 23 where he was subbed out with Achilles soreness in the third term. 
Consistency was the key to Mills’ fantasy game. In all 17 of his healthy games he scored 85 or more points and in 13 games he scored triple figures, including a 152 and 142. And again it’s no surprise that Mills has an extremely well-rounded scoring profile (28 disposals, 10 contested possessions, six marks and five tackles.)
The key for Mills going forward is can he start producing more ceiling games. Outside of his aforementioned 152 and 142, his only other 120+ scores were 133 and 121. We can’t expect a better floor but if he can start converting his 110s into 120-130s then a 115 average is within reach. 
Even if Mills is unable to up those ceiling games at 24 years of age he shapes as a top 10 midfielder for the next 5 years and there’s always the possibility for him to regain back status at the end of his career. 
MJThe role and scoring breakout finally happened! Keeper league owners for multiple seasons have been awaiting what we saw in 2021.
Callum Mills is an unassuming fantasy scorer. Those who watch the game (not the fantasty scoring during it) can be fooled into thinking he’s not scoring well. However, as Matt Boyd did for the better part of a decade, Mills just finds a way to get involved in everything and without copping much attention.   His scoring breakdown is well rounded. Consisting of 39% kicks, 24% handballs, 16% marks and 19% tackles.  To average 110 and to only deliver 3 games over 130 highlights his low scoring deviation and consistency. 
Mills will enter the 2022 season as a midfielder and farewell his defensive eligibility. The only thing we haven’t seen Callum encounter or overcome is how he handles a tag. But at 187cm and spending the majority of his AFL career as a defender, I think he’s had a solid apprenticeship to handle whatever comes his way. 
He may never become a player that delivers you a 120+ season, but he should be a highly valuable keeper commodity for the next 8+ seasons. 

Tim Taranto

KANETim Taranto bounced back from an injury-interrupted 2020 in a major way averaging 108 points. While his average wasn’t quite the same as his career best of 113 in 2019, for the majority of the season he was on pace for a career-best year.
From Round 1 to 18 he averaged 114 points, which included 13 tons and a lowest score of 86. However, in Round 19 there was a clear role change from centre bounce midfielder to forward. In the four games he played as a predominant forward he averaged 77 points and had a highest score of 98. 
This is clearly a massive concern for a player you’re drafting in the first two rounds of a keeper and while there’s some risk this role shift could continue I don’t think it’s that likely. 
I tend to think Taranto might have been carrying an injury and thus moved out of the midfield to protect him. Across his first 91 AFL games only once did he fail to lay a tackle and that was a 61% time on ground performance in his first season. In Round 19 and 20 this year he failed to lay a tackle and those were the two games he spent bulk time forward. 
To have a 23-year-old that has already produced averages of 113, 108, 94 and 91 inside his first five seasons at AFL level is insane. At worst you’re getting a top 30 midfielder for the next five years at best you could be getting a top five midfielder for the next 10 with the possibility of picking up dpp along the way. 
MJTim Taranto is the perfect reminder of how a player can move up and down the tiers within a season for keeper leagues. If this were being created mid-season you’d be hard pressed to not put him into one of the top 2 tiers.  So why the slide to tier three? It’s relatively simple. Role! I never in a million years thought that Leon Cameron would use ‘TT’ in a primary role other than as an inside midfielder.
However, in the final 5 weeks is when the role shifting started and he started playing more as a half-forward.   
During the first 17 games of the season, he averaged 113, posted 13 tons and had just one score under 90. In the final five games, he averaged 88. But that’s inflated as his big sole ton (132), was where he played back as a midfielder when Josh Kelly was a late out.  
His scoring ceiling is certainly limited if he plays significant midfield minutes. The potential upside is that if that role holds long enough he’d be a candidate to gain MID/FWD DPP. 
I don’t see any risk of selecting ‘TT’ in this tier, and at this point of a keeper draft, you cannot afford the risk. At best the 23 year old delivers on his proven history as a 110+ midfielder. Worst case scenario is he splits his time between midfield and forward but not enough to gain DPP. Therefore he probably becomes a 95 mid.
Taranto will give his owner another 7-8 seasons of top tier scoring potential.  I for one, see him delivering a ton in every single season during that stretch of time. 

Josh Dunkley

KANEI have to preface this article by saying I may be Josh Dunkley’s biggest fantasy believer. If you’ve listened to me talk about him on any podcast you’d know how highly I regard him and I think it’s warranted.  
So far his fantasy journey has had everything. In his first season he averaged 80 points and was part of the Bulldogs historic premiership. Year two a shoulder injury restricted him to just six games. 
Year three and four is where the fantasy potential started to become obvious to everyone. In 2018 he averaged 96 points, but in his 10 games post bye he went at 109. In 2019 he averaged a career-high 111 points but his season average again doesn’t tell the full story. In the first six games of the season he played forward for an average of 78 points. In Round 7 and for the remaining 16 games of the season he became a pure centre bounce midfielder and exploded, averaging 124 across the stretch. Included in that run were scores of 189, 158, 150 and 145, to showcase his elite ceiling. 
Unfortunately for Dunkley, year five and six have mirrored each other. An injury to his ankle in 2020 limited him to 11 home and away games, while a shoulder injury in 2021 kept him to 11 home and away games also. Despite missing large chunks of both seasons he’s still averaged 90+, which far from kills you. 
A lot of coaches will be scared off by his recent run of injury and inconsistent scoring (I think the two are closely linked) and overlook him inside the first two rounds but I think the upside is so high that he could be the best scorer in fantasy across the next five seasons. 
MJSome might be too turned away to grab Josh Dunkley this high in a keeper league, but his upside has his scoring potential up there with the best.
Unlike others on the list, his scoring forecast isn’t based on an unproven potential. Rather on what he has done. Over the ​​final sixteen matches of his 2019 season, he scored 14 tons, 9 of them were above 120, and 4 over 140 and an average of 123 after the move.
This is a perfect foreshadowing of what he delivered at the stuff of 2021. Before succumbing to a shoulder injury that required a reconstruction he was averaging 115 in the first six weeks of the year. In all of these games, he scored a ton, with a seasonal high including a 151.
Coming back from such a serious injury in season is an incredible effort. Throw in the fact he had to quarantine for 2 weeks after visiting a covid exposure site and it was a slower return to scoring than what he and his owners would’ve liked. Yet, over the last three finals, his tackle count started to return along with his contested possessions. In these games, he scored 95, 101 & 83.
Josh is still just 24, so time is on his side for his owners to continue to reap the benefits of his scoring. Personally, I believe he’ll retain MID/FWD status and be the top scoring forward of 2022. 

Rory Laird

KANEWhat a fantasy player Rory Laird is. Recruited off the rookie list he’s already produced seven premium seasons and none better than 2021. 
Playing as a centre bounce midfielder Laird averaged a career-high 112 points and reeled off 18 tons. Only once did he score sub 90 and that was a 75. 
The standout number for Laird though is clearly how he finished the season. From Round 12 to Round 23 he hit triple figures in every game and averaged 120 points. 
We know Laird is an incredible ball-winner (he averaged 32 disposals this year) but it was his six tackles a game that impressed me as his previous best was four and shows how well he adapted to the role change. 
In addition to his scoring prowess, Laird boasts near-perfect durability and always has the possibility of regaining back status at some point in his career. 
The one concern I see floated is the return of Matt Crouch and what impact that could have. I’m not overly fussed as I don’t see Crouch’s return reducing Laird’s CBA’s, particularly with Sloane likely to be phased out of the midfield as he enters the twilight of his career. 
At 28 years old you still have 3 years at least of strong scoring from a player who has shown to be a premium as a midfielder or defender. Throw in that he’s available every week, you can’t go wrong with Laird. 
MJRory Laird has been one of the best defensive premiums for years.  Between 2016 – 2020 he’s averaged  97, 100, 108, 97 and an adjusted 99 BCV. 
Midway through 2020, he had a role change as a pure midfielder. From then on in he averaged an adjusted 112, a foreshadowing of what was to come this season.
In 2021 this scoring trend continued. He averaged 111, scored 18 tons including 6 over 120. Throw in the fact he dipped his scoring beneath 90 just once and it was a near perfect season. 
Kane’s already highlighted the strong end to the season which would provide coaches with some confidence that perhaps he’s only getting better in the role. 
Over these podcast episodes, you’ve heard us discuss the value of a player having multiple scoring columns. Why does this matter? Simply, it enables a player to have a diversity of scoring options should one be limited either by oppositions game style or other variables.
Last year his scoring split was made up of 37% Kicks, 31% Handballs, 9% marks and 20% tackles. Laird has a near perfect fantasy game. He’s a ball winner, knows how to defend, boasts strong endurance and has the footy IQ to get into space for both offensive and defensive setups.
Not having Matt Crouch play did aid his scoring and midfield development. But Laird is so clever if anything I can only see a 5 ppg regression. Equally as likely is he hits the rare terrority of premium midfielders and backs up his 110 seasonal average. 

Jake Lloyd

KANEIt says a lot about Jake Lloyd that people are disappointed with a 98-point average but that’s the sense I’ve got from the community. 
I think most of that disappointment is rooted in just how well his previous two seasons were. In 2019 he averaged 107 and in 2020 he averaged 114*, which are mind boggling numbers for a defender and place him firmly among the top five most valuable players during that stretch. 
But you’re not here for the past and we want to know how he’ll go in the future. I have Lloyd as 90-100 defender for the next three years and wouldn’t be surprised with his elite durability (missed just one game in the past four seasons), fitness and foot skills that he can’t stretch that scoring for even five years. 
Doesn’t have the upside of some others in this tier but he’s just so safe and gives you a player to build your backline for the medium term at least. 
MJ12 months ago, Jake Lloyd was a genuine first round selection in a keeper league. Lloyd had developed his scoring to such great heights, that he was now seen by many as the undeniable clear best defender. 
While Rory Laird and Callum Mills amongst others went past his scoring last season, Jake still has something that these two no longer possess. Defensive Status!
At 28 years of age, Lloyd still delivered a solid 2021 season. It featured twelve tons and an additional five scores of 90-99. Where his scoring dried up was in his ceiling, last year he failed to deliver anything over 120. 
Regardless of this, he is still one of the most reliable and durable defensive options available. During the past six seasons, he’s missed just two matches.
The departure of Jordan Dawson doesn’t hurt his scoring upside, but it probably doesn’t drastically mean he’ll return to the 110+ seasons. However, over the next 3 seasons, I still see Lloyd as a 95-15 defender and in a keeper league given he’ll hold his status that’s a highly valuable asset.  
2021 Season Defining Moves | Patreon Only

Whether it’s an overall ranking or league focus, achieving success in fantasy footy requires so many elements to work. One of the keys is trading in the right player at the right time. So here’s a look back at the moves that using hindsight was the season defining moves of 2021.

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Aaron Hall

If you’ve played fantasy footy for a few seasons, then you’d know that Aaron Hall has a fantasy pedigree. He spent the better part of two seasons delivering tons.

Some would say the perfect time to get Hall was at round 3, where he busted out a 99 & 123 in AFLFantasy and 81 and 131 in SuperCoach. And whole that might be a valid perspective. However, I think 2 weeks later was better. So there you got him after his concussion, and since round 7, he hasn’t had a misstep.

Since round 7, he’s scored 12 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons; 9 of these were over 120 and 5 over 120. In this run, his lowest score has been 88, and he’s averaged 118.9 in this 15 game run. For SuperCoach, over the same stretch of games, he posted 14 tons and 5 over 120. His only score under 100 has been 73, and he’s averaged 121. Safe to say, Hall might have been the most influential early trade in fantasy coaches seasons.

Josh Kelly

Josh Kelly is an absolute gun! You don’t have multiple seasons averaging 110+ across the formats and not have some fantasy footy pedigree behind you. But over the first 6 weeks of the year, the recently signed Giant for life was struggling to score. As a result, Kelly was being used predominantly across the half-forward flank and averaged 85.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 90.8 in SuperCoach.

However, in round 7, his midfield role returned. For reference, it coincided when fellow elite user Lachie Whitfield returned to the side. From round 7 to now, he’s scored 11 tons from his 14 games, including 10 consecutive from round 7-17. During this stretch of games, he’s averaging 112.

For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s had just one game in the past 14 where his scores have dipped beneath 96. An average of 111 is exactly the sort of returns we’ve come to expect from him.

Kelly’s (like all on this list) is a testament to timing and buying low on players. But, history told us, when fit, he scores very well!

Darcy Parish

Injuries create opportunity, and that’s exactly what happened for Darcy after Dylan Shiel went down with a long term injury. In round 5, Shiel went down injured, and at that point, Parish was averaging 88.2 in SuperCoach and 86 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

From this point onwards, he’s averaged 114 in AFLFantasy, which included 11 tons, with 4 of them over 140. In SuperCoach during this same 16 game stretch in SuperCoach 110.8 including scores of 190, 166, 162 & 152.

To put it simply, in 2021, when Dylan Shiel plays, he averages 81.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, but without him, he averages 117.7. That’s a differential of 36.1. In SuperCoach with Shiel, he averages 86, and without it’s 128.1. A differential of 42.1.

Sean Darcy

Do you remember when Brodie Grundy got injured and was ruled out just before the bye rounds? I do. I ended up writing a piece on my trade suggestions for him. In it, I said that ultimately ‘hindsight’ well tell us what’s the right move. Clearly, trading into Sean Darcy was the correct choice.

Even before this injury, Darcy was showing some scoring potential. In round 11, when the injury happened, Sean was coming off a 4 game average of 104 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 113 in SuperCoach.

However, from round 12, when the trade via Grundy could’ve been made, he’s scored 8 tons from his 10 games in SuperCoach. He hasn’t scored below 90 and has given scores of 190, 183, 156, 150 & 140. Since this point, he’s averaged 135.4.

For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, the scoring ceiling isn’t as high, but it’s just as valuable a trade. Over the past 10 weeks, he’s scored 5 tons, plus two additional scores over 90 and averaged just on the ton.

Taylor Walker

One of the decisions that defined 2021 was for those who traded into Taylor Walker ahead of round 3 commencing. Whether you traded him in from an underperforming premium (like Jordan DeGoey) or an injury forced to move ‘Tex’ was a huge win for owners. The following four weeks, he did his job with scores of 136, 99, 74 & 76 in DreamTeam/AFLFantasy and 130, 106, 85 & 103 in SuperCoach.

Heading into round seven, his price had increased by $320,000 in AFLFantasy, $197,000 in SuperCoach and $245,000 in DreamTeam from his starting price. Not a bad quick money maker and points on-field performance.

Jack Ziebell

Do you remember the pain entering into round two? Patrick Dangerfield had just been handed a three game suspension, and the debate amongst coaches was about whether to hold or trade. Hindsight would say that trading Danger was clearly the right call, especially after suffering an injury on his return game.

Jack was the form forward of the competition over the first three months of the season. In SuperCoach, he averaged 115 up till the bye rounds, just three scores under 100 and only one score to this point under 89. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, over the first 11 games 109, posted some monster scores of 139, 140 & 170 and didn’t drop below a score of 82. So chances are if you started with or traded into Ziebell early, you had strong rankings rise to start the year.

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Jordan De Goey

Trading him out of your team in the front half of the season could’ve been equally as defining as trading him back in. But certainly jumping on after suspension and bye round was a perfect time. By then, he’d already had three solid games against the Crows, Cats and Demons, so it wasn’t a ‘blind jump.’ So even though you could’ve got him at a steal price at the end of round 10, nobody was trading into him then.

Since round 16 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s scored: 124, 117, 120, 93, 125, 94 & 98. While in SuperCoach over this same timeframe he’s gone 114, 124, 114, 80, 138, 85 & 119. In this seven week stretch, he’s been going at an average of 110 across all formats. HUGE!

Brayden Fiorini

If you were a Patreon in 2020, you might recall Kane & I spoke about him in our 50 keeper targets series. In it, we highlight his fantasy potential and that he’s a fringe option at the Suns. However, with injuries to key midfielders like Hugh Greenwood, ‘Fio’ found himself seven weeks ago with a chance to prove himself as someone who belongs at the top level.

And prove himself he has. Over the previous 7 weeks in AFLFantasy, his lowest score is 101. He’s had 4 scores over 110 and is averaging 115. He’s now priced at $803,000. But at round 16, you could’ve picked him up for just $639,000.

The scoring consistency might not have been as high in SuperCoach, but the value has been ever better. At round 16, Brayden was priced at $301,700. Now he’d set you back $523,500. Over the past 7 weeks, he’s scored 5 tons and is averaging 110. If you brought him in as an M8-M9 swingman or a ‘buy low’ and hope option at M7-M8, he’s been an absolute find for you!

Touk Miller

I couldn’t get through this article and not mention him. In reality, getting Touk in anytime this season has been huge. But really, post-bye is his super run. At his bye round, he averaged 117 across the formats, and many would’ve assumed that’s a phenomenal start, but this is as good as he gets.

For his first 10 games of the season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he was averaging 117 and posted 7 tons. In his past 10 games, he’s averaged 125 with just one score under 100.

Over in SuperCoach, his first 10 games of the season, he averaged 117.9 and posted 7 tons. In his past 10 games, he’s averaged ? with hasn’t dropped his scores under 100.

Jy Simpkin

‘After his bye’ is a phrase I’ve already used on multiple players (and still more to come.) But Simpkin is a testament to backing in a player’s scoring history even when he’s given you minimal faith in his delivery in that current season.

Over the first 11 games of this season, Jy has only 4 SuperCoach scores over 90 and only one above 110 and was averaging 89.9. While for AFLFantasy, he’d posted 3 tons and averaging 86.2.

Since the bye, he’s posted 7 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons and had just one score under 90. In this 10 game stretch, he’s currently averaging 105. In SuperCoach, he’s also posted 7 tons, twice scored 99 and is averaging 106 in his past 10. It’s not as big as others on this list, but still a win for owners.

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Christian Petracca

Christian started the year super strong. Over the first 8 weeks, he rarely had a poor game. An average of 111 in AFLFantasy & 103 in SuperCoach over the first 8 weeks is more than handy. As good as it was, the back portion of the season has been even better.

If you traded him in from round 9 onwards, he would have returned 9 SuperCoach tons, 7 of them over 110 and 2 148 or higher. In addition to the ceiling, he’s still yet to go under 90 since round 9. In these past 12 games, he’s averaged 128. Meanwhile, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s scored 9 tons, 8 of them over 110 and 3 over 135. An average of 122. Well done if you picked him up then.

Jack Steele

OK, much like Touk Miller above, this feels like a stretch given how good he’s been across the totality of the season. But in truth, the perfect time to get him (if not for the whole season) was really after the bye. Before it, he still had a sold average of 112 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 118 in SuperCoach.

From round 15 onwards in SuperCoach, he’s hit the ton every week, has had four scores over 145 and has gone under 130 twice. During this 8 game stretch, he’s averaging 137. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s also had 8 consecutive tons, including 5 scores of 138 or above, including a 162. Since this hot stretch started, he’s got an 8 game average of 133.

Matt Kennedy

For years the Carlton footy club has been looking for additional support to Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh. The club thought Zac Williams was the fix, but it had the best option under their nose in Matt Kennedy. As a forward eligible option, Matt’s become one of the ‘hot hand’ forwards since he played as a midfielder. I mean, what a novelty. Playing midfielders as midfielders!

It would’ve taken a pair to get him in at the start of the bye round, given he hadn’t played for months and had an average that even at a rookie price, most coaches would’ve said no to. But he’s been exceptional over the last 9 weeks since getting back into the side and playing midfield.

Four tons, plus an additional three scores between 93-95 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, has seen him average 96. Over in SuperCoach, he’s gone just as strong. 5 tons, four of them 115+ and an average of 94. Yes, he’s had 1 or 2 stinkers in this stretch, but given the price point, trading into him at any time through this run has been a raging success!