Tag: Josh Dunkley

Is Josh Dunkley the perfect Upgrade Target You Need in SuperCoach & AFL Fantasy? #29 Most Relevant
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Read Time:26 Second

The 50 Most Relevant countdown continues with #29 Josh Dunkley, the Brisbane Lions’ midfield dynamo. In this episode, MJ Want and Kane break down:

  • Dunkley’s consistent scoring trends and his fantasy reliability 📊
  • The impact of his role within the Lions’ midfield 🦁
  • Why he’s a top draft day pick and a smart upgrade target 🔄
  • Key factors that could influence Dunkley’s 2025 performance
  • Will Josh Dunkley be the linchpin of your AFL Fantasy & SuperCoach team?

Find out how to maximize his value this season!

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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#34 Most Relevant | Josh Dunkley
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Read Time:8 Minute, 31 Second

Over the past few years, Josh Dunkley has been one of my favourites to own in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam. 2023 was meant to be the season where he became a topline-scoring beast. While there were some ups and downs, I saw enough to suggest that Josh could still become the top-scoring player overall in 2024.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Josh Dunkley, a prominent player for the Brisbane Lions, possesses a diverse and formidable skill set that makes him a valuable asset. Renowned for his exceptional ability to win clearances, Dunkley excels in tight contests, showcasing his strength and tenacity. His high football IQ enables him to read the game effectively, positioning himself strategically to impact play both offensively and defensively.

Dunkley’s versatility is a key strength, allowing him to perform various roles, from midfield ball-getter to a forward line presence. His tackling prowess and endurance are standout attributes, ensuring he is consistently involved in the play and significantly contributes to his team’s performance. His skills in ball distribution, combined with his ability to break tackles and create scoring opportunities, round out a skill set that makes him a multifaceted and influential player in the AFL.

He entered the 2023 AFL season with high expectations in fantasy football. While his overall performance didn’t quite reach the anticipated heights, his season was punctuated with significant scoring bursts that showcased his potential.

In AFLFantasy, Dunkley posted a solid average of 103.5, tallying 12 scores over 100, with five exceeding 120 and only four below 80. His ability to play 21 out of 23 games was noteworthy, leading him to finish the year ranked 22nd for total points and 20th by average. These figures, while impressive, didn’t fully meet the lofty expectations set for him.

His performance in SuperCoach was even more striking. Dunkley averaged 113.8, with 15 scores above 100, including eight surpassing 120. Remarkably, he scored below 80 in only two games, cementing his position as the 7th-ranked midfielder by average for the season. This ranking underscores his effectiveness and consistency in the SuperCoach format.

However, a closer look at the details of Dunkley’s season reveals a 10-game stretch, from rounds 5-15, where he truly lived up to his preseason billing. During this period, he averaged an impressive 117.8 in AFLFantasy and an even more remarkable 130.4 in SuperCoach. This phase of the season highlighted Dunkley’s high-scoring capabilities and why he was so highly regarded going into the year. This scoring potential, demonstrated in these specific rounds, reflects Dunkley’s strong, albeit somewhat inconsistent, season and why he remains a significant player in the fantasy football landscape.

Over his AFL career, Dunkley has shown the pedigree of strong AFL Fantasy & SuperCoach scoring. In his history, there are multiple seasons where he averaged over 108, including a career-high 111 AFL Fantasy and 116.4 in SuperCoach in 2019.

While the ceiling scoring is in his history, we can’t hold on tightly to what he did in the past. Anything pre-2023 was done in a different team and system; therefore, it cannot be held as tightly for reference as in prior preseasons. At the Lions, he has shown us that the scoring capacity and ceiling are still there and that, heading into 2024, he’s highly capable of still being at the peak SuperCoach & AFLFantasy.

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MY TAKE

The decision to start Josh Dunkley in fantasy teams has been a topic of debate for many seasons, often seen as underwhelming in the eyes of many. This raises an important question: were our expectations for Dunkley unrealistic, or was there more to his performance than met the eye?

Understanding the nuances of AFL is crucial in making informed decisions in fantasy football. Dunkley’s statistical performance last season may appear patchy at first glance, but it’s essential to consider the broader narrative. There are several plausible explanations for the fluctuations in his scoring: adapting to a new team and structure at Brisbane, thriving as the season progressed due to the Lions’ and opponents’ game styles, and varying roles he was asked to play. Rather than sheer numbers, these factors should inform our understanding of Dunkley’s performance.

How you interpret Dunkley’s seasonal splits is pivotal in determining whether he offers scoring and financial upside, presents a risk, or should be kept on your watchlist. In the first four weeks of the year, he averaged 92.75 in AFLFantasy and 104.25 in SuperCoach, a modest start by his standards. However, Dunkley’s performance spiked dramatically in the following ten weeks, averaging 117.8 in AFLFantasy and 130.4 in SuperCoach.

His season was then interrupted by a calf strain in round 16. Still, upon returning in round 19, Dunkley closed out the final six games with an average of 95.1 in AFLFantasy and 98.6 in SuperCoach. This final stretch, while solid, didn’t match his mid-season highs.

The analysis of Josh Dunkley’s performance, particularly towards the end of the season, requires a deeper understanding of the game context and team dynamics. Notably, three of his four lowest season scores occurred last month. However, these numbers can only be accurate considering the specific roles Dunkley assigned in these games. For instance, in two of these low-scoring games, Dunkley was tasked with tagging key opponents Caleb Serong and Rory Laird. Such defensive assignments often limit a player’s ability to score highly in fantasy terms, as their focus shifts more towards restricting the opposition rather than accumulating their statistics.

Further influencing Dunkley’s performance was the injury to teammate Will Ashcroft. Dunkley’s scoring averages with Ashcroft on the field were significantly higher – 108.3 in AFLFantasy and 121.4 in SuperCoach. In contrast, in the games without Ashcroft, his averages dropped to 91 in AFLFantasy and 93.7 in SuperCoach. This stark difference underscores the impact of team composition and individual roles on a player’s fantasy output.

Ultimately, deciding whether to start Dunkley involves weighing these varied phases of his season against each other. It requires a balance of understanding the data, recognizing the impact of team dynamics and roles, and considering the broader context of his performance. Dunkley’s case illustrates that fantasy football decision-making is as much about interpreting the story behind the numbers as it is about the numbers themselves.

The fact that Brisbane Lions have an early bye in the AFL season, missing Round 2, adds a strategic layer to considering Josh Dunkley in your starting fantasy squad. The dilemma here isn’t just about Dunkley’s individual value and high-scoring potential, which is evident against his early opponents, but also about how selecting him impacts the balance of your team, especially when considering other players from Carlton and Brisbane, who are also off during that week. This necessitates carefully comparing and ranking Dunkley alongside players like Lachie Neale, Kiddy Coleman, Sam Walsh, and Zac Williams. Your choices here are pivotal, as they influence your overall squad selection and structure.

Starting multiple players with early byes increases your team’s risk profile. It could lead to a situation where you might not be able to drop poor scores from these players during the best 18 scoring rounds. This is a crucial factor to consider, especially in a game where maximizing every scoring opportunity is key to success.

The popular strategy in the fantasy community often leans towards avoiding players with early byes. However, this doesn’t necessarily rule out Dunkley or other similar players. It’s more about understanding how this choice affects the rest of your team selections.

A potential strategy for Dunkley might be to target him as an upgrade after the Lions’ round 12 bye. Post-bye, the Lions have a schedule that includes early-round matches, making Dunkley an ideal Vice-Captain option due to the timing of these games. With Friday night games against the Dogs in Round 13 and Saints in Round 14, followed by a first Saturday game against Port in Round 15, Dunkley’s early match appearances could be advantageous for fantasy managers looking for a high-scoring Vice-Captain.

With his credible scoring history, he should be seriously considered in our starting squads. His potential for high scores, combined with the strategic considerations around the Lions’ early bye, means he should also be closely monitored as a potential upgrade target throughout the season. His selection is not just about the points he brings but also about how he fits into the broader strategy of your fantasy football team.

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DRAFT DECISION

Josh Dunkley’s ranking varies between SuperCoach and AFLFantasy, reflecting his different impacts in each format. In SuperCoach, his impressive average positions him as an M1, making him a highly valuable pick. Given his scoring potential, selecting Dunkley in the late second or early third round would be a strategic move, capitalizing on his consistently delivering high scores.

In AFLFantasy, I would rank Dunkley as an M2. While his average might suggest an M3 ranking, his strong name recognition and proven track record in the game mean he’s unlikely to be available for long in most drafts. Fantasy managers recognize Dunkley’s potential and are often willing to pick him earlier, making him a sought-after player well before the M3 stage. In both formats, Dunkley’s scoring history and his value to the midfield make him a key target in fantasy drafts.

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About Post Author

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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2023 Fantasy Footy Review | Brisbane Lions
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Read Time:4 Minute, 12 Second

With the 2023 SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam season officially over, it’s time to review the year in full, one club at a time. Next up for our 2023 Fantasy Footy reviews is the Brisbane Lions.

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MVP

Armed with the 20th-best average in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 10th in SuperCoach, it’s almost baffling to believe that in some quarters of the community, they view Josh Dunkley’s debut year as a Lion disappointing. That is more due to the high expectation of him entering the season. I created some potentially over-the-top hype, dubbing him the #1 most relevant player in my annual top 50.

From his 21 games, he scored 12 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons, including 137, 145 and 172. Nine of these 12 tons were scored between rounds 3-16. For SuperCoach, he scored 17 tons, And between rounds 1-20, he had just one score under triple figures.

Given his high ownership percentage and reliable scoring pre-injury, it’s hard not to award this to any other Lions player. Because if you owned Josh only a little or all of that run, chances are your season never really got going.

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Money Man

It could only be Will Ashcroft. There was so much anticipation around him heading into the 2023 season. In part due to the contrast of many draft watchers seeing he was ‘as good, if not better than Nick Daicos.’ Given Nick’s stunning start to his fantasy footy career, the hopes were sky high that Will, too, could develop into a season-long hold. Before his season-ending ACL injury, he was certainly trending that way.

His season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam netted him an average of 82.8, which consisted of nine scores over 80, three of those over 90, four tons and a career-high 127 against Q Clash rivals Gold Coast. From his eighteen games in SuperCoach, he averaged 84.5. It featured nine scores above 80 and six tons, including scores of 111, 148 & 102 in the three games before injury. You can build a compelling narrative that he improved as the season continued.

From a cash generation perspective, Entering his injury game of round 19, he was at his price peak in AFLFantasy, a massive $430,000 above his starting price. For DreamTeam, it was back in round 11 when he was valued at $744,300, an increase of $448,900. In SuperCoach, he was at his highest price post-injury; after round 19, he was priced at $510,300, an increase of $307,500.

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It didn’t quite work out

Daniel Rich has been incredibly relevant over the past four seasons in SuperCoach. Averages of 96.8, 90, 107 & 92.7 heading into 2023 had coaches expecting him to again push towards the top tier of defender. However, a calf injury and loss of form have seen him play just seven games in his final season at the AFL. There wouldn’t have been many that owned him in their classic sides, but for draft coaches, his decline in 2023 has left owners with a sour taste. Sadly, drafting Daniel didn’t quite work out this time around.

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2024 Watchlist

The retirement of Daniel Rich has created a vacancy for distribution off half-back for the Brisbane Lions. It’ll be filled by Kiddy Coleman in 2024. For several years, Coleman has shown his high speed, the desire to take the game on and a penetrating left boot. Despite showing some scoring inconsistencies over time, he’s often spent much of that working alongside or in the shadows of Daniel.

Over the last seven games of 2023, he averaged 89.2 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 90.1 in SuperCoach. But it gets better; in the last month of the year, he averaged 94.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 95 in SuperCoach. He’ll start 2024 priced at 69 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 71 in SuperCoach. There’s well and truly some value ‘fat’ on the bone for coaches willing to take the plunge of Kiddy.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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What to do with Josh Dunkley?
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Read Time:8 Minute, 34 Second

It was on the cards the moment Josh Dunkley was subbed out last week against Richmond. But on Tuesday afternoon, the Lions confirmed that their star recruit would miss the battle against the Eagles due to a calf injury. The issue is the club haven’t ruled out him missing multiple weeks, which has left coaches in the fantasy community wondering what to do with Josh Dunkley.

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What’s your focus?

Whenever someone asks me about their AFLFantasy, SuperCoach or AFL DreamTeam side, I ask them, ‘What’s your focus?’ No point in me shelling out advice when I don’t understand the coach and their objective. So, before you decide on how you’re handling the absence of Josh, you need to clarify for yourself the focus of your fantasy side. Is it overall rankings, or is it league? The answer tells me everything I need to know.

If your focus is on the league finals, safely in finals contention, and have some relatively kind fixtures, then fielding the likes of Ryan Maric for 1-2 weeks will do little to dent your season. After all, you’ll want Dunkley on your side come finals. So in this scenario, holding Josh is favourable and likely the right play. Conversely, if you’re battling to scrape into finals and have to win over the next two weeks, trading out of Dunkley to maximise scoring on the field is more optimal and might get you back into your league finals.

Coaches playing for ultimately the highest ranking possible are much more inclined to prioritise trading out of Josh than those with a league focus. Within a rankings focus, are you in contention to win it all? Do you need to minimise the damage of a certain premium against you? Or are you needing to create squad separation? It doesn’t mean rankings focus = trade, but rather it helps provide the decision framework.

Nobody wants to see a player injured, but what it does do is create opportunity. Dunkley is among the highest-owned players in the formats, and we see similar teams amongst a big portion of the top 100-1000. As a result, the opportunity to create some differentiation through how people navigate the Dunkley dilemma can only be a good thing for the fantasy community. That differentiation can come through many pathways that we’ll unpack in this article.

So before you read further, what’s your focus? Leagues or Ranks? Where are you placed, and how can you maximise this opportunity for your benefit?

What’s your format?

 The focus isn’t the only variable. The format you play is another key component. The Coaches Panel gives insights for SuperCoach, AFLFantasy, DreamTeam & drafts, so giving universal ‘advice’ is dangerous and largely unhelpful. In AFLFantasy, where you have two trades a week, use or lose, it’s a higher percentage play to trade him than hold him. While in SuperCoach and DreamTeam, valuing the limited few trades you have remaining starts to add another layer of strategy to the game.

Choosing to hold Dunkley in these formats is much more warranted universally as a play, given that each trade has an increasingly higher value to your team the deeper the season goes. While a good play, some coaches have been burnt badly in 2023 with holding a premium. They are different players and different injuries, but those who have held Clayton Oliver will have an understandable scepticism that Dunkley will play next week. If you’ve held Oliver this long and rankings are your focus, it’s safe to assume your dream of winning it all has had its tires slashed.

You may own Dunkley in multiple formats. You’ll need to apply multiple different tactics and approaches. The beauty of these games is that they all require a different level of strategy.

Do you have cover?

It will be common for coaches to have little to no bench depth in the forward lines or the ability to utilise DPP and flip Dunkley into the midfield. Plenty of fantasy sides are running benches that feature a combination of these red dots in the midfield and forward lines. Kai Lohmann, Matt Roberts, Alwyn Davey Jnr, Sam Sturt, Harry Sharp, Charlie Constable, Jake Buller, Josh Fahey and Blake Drury. If you have squad depth, trading Dunkley becomes a forced move except for coaches playing for leagues who can afford to drop the results over the next 1-2 weeks. 

Can you loop Dunkley?

The Thursday evening clash this week is the Swans taking on the Tigers. For a high volume of coaches, they own Angus Sheldrick, with many having the luxury of having him as a bench option banking late-season coin. Over the last three weeks, he’s been averaging 95 in all formats. The matchup is a positive matchup for inside midfielders and general forwards, so it’s certainly within the realms of probability that Angus can get within that scoring range again.

The benefit of playing a loophole is it gives you a look at banking some scoring while being able to stash an asset that you’ll want to have in your team. Additionally, it enables you to move ahead with your preferred trading cadence and create the moves you want. So while Angus might not score comparable to Dunkley’s sideways trade option, playing the loop effectively means the trading moves in totality alongside looping him on the field does have you in an overall comparable if not stronger position.

Key in this strategy, whether it is Angus or another loop option, is to define the cut-off for scoring for your team. Additionally, when at the weekend, you need to make that trade. Take all emotion and pressure out of choice by making the marker decisions now. It’s amazing how you can see the game when you give yourself time and space.

Securing a topliner?

As the season has passed, there’s a high chance that at least one premium has given you a headache not owning them. The opportunity is now presented for you to be able to secure them. Whether that has been Tim English, Marcus Bontempelli, Jordan Dawson or any top-tier scorers, you can easily remove the headache and see Josh as the ticket to pain relief. Nobody likes injuries, but sometimes they create an opportunity for you to do something you’d previously been struggling to figure out how to do. 

Creating Separation

You will only win your league or the overall rankings with some form of separation from the pack. With Josh Dunkley, one of the most highly owned players, you could turn him into the unique player that separates your side from the pack.

In SuperCoach, Adam Cerra has averaged 122 over the past five weeks and is in just 3.1% of teams. My boy Josh Kelly also averaged north of 120 in the previous five weeks and at 121.6. Even more unique is Luke Parker at 1%. He’s going at 119 in the previous five games and 127 in the last three.

If it’s a forward replacement you need, Caleb Daniel is in 6.6% of sides and has scored five tons in his last six outings. In addition, less than one per cent own him in the top 1% of teams. Ben Keays is in 6.3% of teams overall but is in 16% of the top 1% despite him averaging more than Zak Butters over the past month.

For AFLFantasy, I know Brad Crouch looks appealing averaging 112 in the last five and is owned at 13%. But he’s owned by 71% of the top 100. That’s not going to create separation. So regardless of what he does, if separation is the focus, he won’t do it. Sam Walsh is in just 3% of teams in the top 100 and 8.2% overall. He’s far from his best at the moment, but from round 19 onwards, he has an amazing run with matches against West Coast, Collingwood, St Kilda and Melbourne—all favourable matchups. Tom Mitchell is also in just 4% of teams in the top 100, and one coach owns Josh Kelly.

Jack Macrae is a play if it’s a forward that you need. While owned by 13% overall, nobody in the top 100 YET has him. That’ll change this week. Likely too for Caleb Daniel; he also is lowly owned in the top 1,000.

Use the resources created by DFS Australia to help you find the right option for your side and price point.

Improving the squad overall

 Much has been made about the challenges of cash generation in 2023. As we’ve discussed on the podcast multiple times, the issue isn’t cash generation but rather that coaches must ‘pay up’ for better money-makers. The absence of Dunkley this week means coaches can look at creative ways of opening up their salary capacity to make a second trade alongside this and improve their teams’ performance.

For example, sake in AFLFantasy. Let’s assume you have 0 dollars in the bank. Let’s say Hayden Young is your worst on-field prospect. By moving Josh Dunkley down to Ben Keays or Harry Sheezel, you make $200,000+. That’s more than enough to get Hayden up to Sam Docherty. You could also through that $200k on top of Matt Johnson and turn him into Callum Mills.

It’s similar in SuperCoach; you make almost $200,000 dropping all the way down to Stephen Coniglio or Ben Keays, and over $300k if you need the cash by getting Liam Henry, who has a three-week average of 95. That extra $ can help you grab any of Harry Himmelberg, Callum Mills, Christian Salem, Patrick Dangerfield and Jacke Steele of any dead cow you have on a specific line.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Upgrade Targets After The Bye | Round 13
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Read Time:11 Minute, 49 Second

One week of the multi-bye rounds is over. We now have four teams with no more scheduled rests for the remainder of the season. Here’s a club-by-club breakdown of potential upgrade targets who have had their bye-round.

Since landing at Brisbane, one of the reliable scoring premium midfielders in the game is Lachie Neale. In SuperCoach, he’s consistently averaging over 110+ and above 100+ in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. He’s been a little patchy over the season, but before the week off, he had started to turn the corner with his scoring consistency. In his previous three weeks, he’s scored 103, 117 & 100 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 109, 128 & 122 in SuperCoach.

He’s dropped about $100k on his starting price in SuperCoach and is always a play in that format. However, I’m a big fan of the play in AFLFantasy. Priced at $829,000, he’s got plenty of upside. With a fixture of Hawthorn & Sydney straight off the bye, he may cop a pair of tags, but it opens up massively afterwards. From rounds 15-17, the Lions play St Kilda, Richmond and West Coast, three of the best matchups for midfielders. Every chance, within five weeks, he’s gone up $100k and averaged north of 110.

Based on that fixture, some might be tempted to look at Hugh McCluggage, especially in AFLFantasy, where a multiple-week stretch might be a consideration. Priced at under $750k and with a history of being able to average 100, it’s one to consider. I’d be cautious. The midfield mix of the Lions has changed with the arrival of Will Ashcroft and Josh Dunkley, and his role has seen him fade into a more regular wing role with minimal centre-bounce attendance. It’s got serious risk associated, given he’s only really popped one decent score for the year, but I can understand the consideration for coaches looking for a possible value play.

The vast majority of the fantasy community already owns Josh Dunkley. I dubbed him the most relevant player for the coming year in the preseason. While he hasn’t been as prolific as many had hoped, he’s still been one of the best forwards across the formats and has been a more than solid starting squad plays of the year. For the rare few that don’t own him, you’ve probably missed the boat trading into him, as it was a month into the year that was the right time to ‘buy low.’

Injury is never a good thing, but what it can do is create opportunity. And with Sean Darcy suffering a hamstring injury, it likely forces Fremantle to play Luke Jackson as the #1 ruck. So how does Luke go when the clear #1 ruck? It’s a very limited sample size and an entirely different team. However, last year he played one game without Max Gawn and scored 125 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 122 for SuperCoach. Getting three games like that over the byes without Darcy could be a game-changer.

Over the previous few weeks on our weekly strategy roundtable podcasts, you’ve heard MiniMonk often speak about the importance of versatility and value of an RUC/FWD DPP like Darcy Cameron. Another option (all be in more of a limited run through the byes) is Luke. At the very least, he’s a play to ponder.

After a quiet start to the season, Andrew Brayshaw is averaged 110 for the year but going at 122 in his last five for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Over in SuperCoach, he’s averaging 104 for the year but 119.2 since round seven. The early season injury niggles well past him, and he’s now back to his 2022 scoring best. He’s no longer that bargain he was a month ago, but he should still be an option to look at. Over the next month, the Dockers play Richmond, GWS, Essendon & Bulldogs. None of these teams run tags and has shown tendencies to let in/out players like Andy score well. Don’t be shocked if he’s not in the top 2-3 points scorers over the season’s final few months.

Six rounds into the year, people that had started with Hayden Young were targeting him as a trade-out option at the byes. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 81; in SuperCoach, he averaged 85 and had only one ton in the first six weeks across all formats. However, over the previous five weeks, he’s started to deliver the premium scores that have meant he’s now genuinely on the radar for all coaches off the bye. Since round seven, he’s averaged 102 in SuperCoach, scored three tons and nothing under 86. Over in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s averaging 100 in his last five, scored three tons and dropped his score under 98 just once.

Hayden’s price point is now back to where it was at the start of the season, which means he still presents a level of value. What’s the cause of scoring? The Dockers have started funnelling their defensive rebound through him more than Luke Ryan. What should provide a level of comfort for this is that the Dockers have won four of the last five games and have started returning to the winning form of 2022. Only the club would truly know whether it’s causation or correlation, but the two elements look linked from the outside. Beyond Nick Daicos, Jordan Dawson and James Sicily, no premium defenders are regularly banging the door down with big scores across formats—a genuine play.

If Young isn’t interested, maybe you’re more of a Luke Ryan fan. He’s having a career season averaging 99 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 110 in SuperCoach. He’s not been as prolific over the past three weeks, but he’s still a play. His scoring is almost doing the reverse of what Hayden Young is doing. Their prices are relatively comparable across formats, so I’d probably lean more towards Hayden unless you want both.

One of the breakout picks of the year has been Caleb Serong. Congratulations to every coach that jumped on early. The good news is, he’s shown it wasn’t just a hot stretch to start the year; he’s now done it for three months. Equally important is he’s scored well with Brayshaw performing well, too, meaning he’s not just getting the ‘upside’ of when Andy was struggling to be at his peak. If you want to get the most out of the Dockers fixture but can’t spend the $ to get up to Brayshaw, then Serong is certainly a ‘haircut’ to strong view.

It’s not an upgrade, but two Dockers could help generate cash. Sam Sturt is a chance to get a few games should Sean Darcy miss multiple matches with his hamstring injury. They’re far from ‘like for like replacements, but structurally, Sturt at 189cm adds another dimension to the forward line.

The big one, especially for SuperCoach, is Nat Fyfe. Priced at under $250k, he’s just over the price tag of a cash cow. There is no risk in trading into him at this price point. He’s priced as a glorified cash cow. Every week Nat’s looked better, and to get a player with his historical pedigree at this price point is a steal. At best, he becomes an on-field premium. At worst, he’s a trade going down with an injury. He is likely somewhere in the middle. Meaning he provides depth and flexibility across your benches once the byes end. Nobody is a must-have trade, but Fyfe is mighty close to it. 

The man of steal, Jack Steele, has yet to be at his prolific scoring best in 2023. A combination of some niggling injuries and occasional mid-game role changes has seen the St Kilda skipper only show glimpses of his fantasy pedigree. For Jack, the week off couldn’t have come at a better time as it allowed some much-needed recovery time.

Anyone with a history of monster scoring like Jack must be considered. Next week is the optimal moving time to get him. That way, you get a week of visibility to watch him play & see if he resembles his old self while also managing his breakeven dip. Now is the right time to do it; as important as getting value for money is, points are the name of the game. This week St Kilda takes on the Swans. In his last three, Steele has scored 139, 124 & 137 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 125, 115 & 140 in SuperCoach. If he scores like that, you’ll care little about another $20k differential in price dip.

I do not love the defenders this year. Beyond Jordan Dawson, Nick Daicos, James Sicily and probably Sam Docherty, you could argue that no premium defender is worth paying up big dollars for. However, despite not living up to the dizzying heights of last year, Jack Sinclair is still a viable acquisition. He’s shown multiple games of 110+ and has matches against Sydney, Richmond, Brisbane & West Coast. Three of those matchups are quite favourable for defenders and midfielders. Jack could well fly off the back of the bye.

Brad Crouch in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam has shown a scoring pedigree. In 2022, he averaged 106.4 and was among the best midfielder premiums in the game. Even this year, he was averaging 113 over the first five matches. He’s cheap, given his historical performance, but it’s his ownership percentage that’d be more appealing as a team differentiator than anything else.

Only a few coaches should need to trade into ruckmen this week. Last round, we had multiple options present, so if you were an owner of an injured Sean Darcy, you could’ve got into Tim English, Darcy Cameron or Kieren Briggs. For those who held, you are probably not playing rankings focus but making leagues your priority. As such, there is a little world where people need a ruck; if you do this week, then Rowan Marshall is a viable play.

One of the keys to fantasy success, especially when trading into players, is to ensure your maximising the ‘upgrade’ with the first week of the trade. It’s why Jake Lloyd, who has arguably one of the best matchups this week, should be a trade consideration for coaches looking to beef out their backlines. All year the Saints have been fantastic matchups for defenders. Jake historically has been one of the best premiums, and while not as prolific as in previous years, he’s still been good this year.

He’s currently ranked seventh for defenders in SuperCoach and tenth in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam by averages. Additionally, he’s coming off the back of his season-high score, a 123 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and a 139 in SuperCoach. If you want to beef up the backline this week, then Lloyd needs to be a consideration.

Over the past five weeks, Chad Warner has been firing and delivering premium midfield numbers. He’s averaging 107.2 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 114.8 in SuperCoach since round seven. Interestingly this scoring boost happened with Mills still in the team, so it’s not just the departure of Callum that’s created a scoring boost. He doesn’t have the greatest scoring history against recent opponents. But given he’s played less than 50 games of AFL, I’m not too concerned. On current trends, the Swans have a favourable fixture matchup for midfielders. Chad’s an ‘impact’ over ‘volume’ footballer, so while he’s a consideration in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam, historically, it’s SuperCoach that his scoring has been at his peak.

It’s not flashy, but some will be looking at Nick Blakey off the back of scoring 114 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 125 before the bye week. I don’t hate the move, but it feels like your jumping on for a short time at a cheaper price point and wanting to get an overperformance that historically has only sometimes been there. Sometimes taking a haircut on a premium is a good play. I’m not sold it; it’s the right play for everyone. But it’s something to consider and ponder.

Sydney skipper Callum Mills is still anywhere from one to three weeks away from returning from his calf injury, according to the latest injury update. As a result, he’s not a trade this week but someone we should be keeping some space for. When he’s back, the Swans key position stocks will be replenished. This should result in a more permanent move back to the midfield. In doing so, he could be one of the year’s bargains.

Normally Luke Parker would feature here, but with him being suspended this week, he’s not someone to look at for this round.

Five weeks ago, I knew plenty of coaches were looking at Errol Gulden as a trade-out option. To that point in the year, he’d been fine but hadn’t delivered anything that resembled what we saw in the preseason. However, since round seven, he’s been amazing. Over the past five weeks in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s averaging 127.4, with only Tim Taranto averaging more in the previous five-game cycle. While in SuperCoach during that stretch of time, he’s averaging 124 and is one of only ten players with a five-week cycle over 120.

Errol’s already incredibly highly owned, but he is highly desirable for non-owners, not just for his scoring or to minimise the potential burn against their team. But because he’s a premium forward that’s playing in round fifteen. Beyond Gulden and Josh Dunkley, few premium forwards in any format are available to play in round fifteen. So for these reasons, targeting Errol might be essential over the next few weeks.

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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#1 Most Relevant | Josh Dunkley
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Read Time:7 Minute, 48 Second

After a failed attempt to leave the Bulldogs a few seasons ago, Josh Dunkley got his wish and found his way to a footballing life outside the kennel. As a Lion, I believe he’s the most relevant player in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam for 2023. 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Josh Dunkley
Age: 26
Club: Brisbane Lions
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score: 
139 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
155 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
189 Vs Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019)
202 Vs Melbourne | SuperCoach (2019)

2022 Average: 
108.8 (AFLFantasy)
108.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $596,400
AFLFantasy Price: $963,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $987,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Josh Dunkley is one of the most enjoyable players to own in fantasy footy. The reason is he finds a way to score through every column imaginable. In reality, he is one of the most well-rounded midfielders in the game. Dunks can win the contested ball, applies high defensive pressure, is a strong tackler, gets into space to win the uncontested ball and is a super overhead mark for his size.

Even though Dunks is now on a new side and within a new structure, his scoring past can give us an insight into his potential scoring future. Last season he scored eighteen AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons. That’s four games all year that he didn’t hit triple digits. Six of those tons were 120 or higher, including five over 130. He had just two scores below 80 all year on his way to averaging 108.7. He ranked eighth for averages and sixth for points. He scored more than Lachie Neale, Clayton Oliver, and Jackson Macrae and was under 30 points away from Touk Miller, who finished fourth.

Last year we had some great in-season DPP gains in the forward line, including Luke Paker, Bailey Smith and Marcus Bontempelli. Yet Dunkley was still higher than these guys in averages and total points. He was clear and supreme the best forward for 2022.

In SuperCoach, he posted fifteen tons. Seven were above 120, five were above 130, and his top three scores were 142, 143 & 155. He had two additional scores above 90, and in just four games, his scoring dipped under 80. By the year’s closing he was ranked 15th in SuperCoach for total points and 23rd by averages.

Before injuring his shoulder in 2021, he was the hottest scoring player across all game formats. Over the season’s first six rounds, he averaged 115 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 129 in SuperCoach. If you didn’t own him, luck stopped him from running away with your season. He’s got the scoring capability within him to go back. In 2019 his scoring pedigree of Dunkley was first seen. Over his final thirteen games of that season, he scored twelve tons and, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, averaged 125.3 and 129.9 for SuperCoach.
You don’t have to pick and choose the data trends from 2021 or 2019 to showcase that Dunkley has the scoring pedigree to match it with the top options across the formats. For example, in the first seven weeks of 2022, he averaged 121 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 118 in SuperCoach. While in the last month of the season, he averaged 115 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 125 in SuperCoach.
At the end of the 2020 AFL season, Josh requested a trade to Essendon. One of the primary motivators around it was a desire to have a permanent position in the midfield. With a successful move to Brisbane two years on, he’s now got the chance to prove to the AFL world why he wanted the opportunity to become a permanent midfielder.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

He was recruited for a purpose! That’s what Brisbane has done by trading for the services of Josh Dunkley. He has been targeted to add a physical and a skills combination mix that the Lions midfield needs to improve. While the team have options through the centre bounces, they are one of the smaller midfield going around. Lachie Neale is only 178cm, Jarryd Lyons is 184cm, and Hugh McCluggage is 185cm. However, Josh is 191cm. His height, strength and physical presence will make a significant impact from the first bounce.

Alongside that, Dunkley offers something unique to the midfield options. His combination of elite contested footy alongside his tackling pressure will enable both him and his midfield teammates to thrive. Last year the Lions ranked 12th in the AFL for tackles and had just one player average over five per game. Last year Josh averaged 6.1 per game and was ranked 13th in the league in this stat column.

Dunkley will receive a minimum of 65% of centre bounce attendance, and this isn’t just because of what he adds to the midfield mix. It’s also because of the Lions forward structures. Even before the offseason addition of Jack Gunston, they already had a stacked forward line. On their day, Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher are damaging talls. Then you’ve got some devastating smalls in the live wires of Zac Bailey and Charlie Cameron. Throw in Gunston plus the rotations from Linc McCarthy, Dayne Zorko, and Cam Rayner, and now opposition coaches will have headaches for days trying to stop this team. As handy as Dunkley is when forward, there is no room for him outside of rotation management.

What’s great about Dunkley is he can skip bulk CBAs to score well anyway. For example, in round seven against Essendon last year, he attended only 23% of centre bounces but still posted a 130+ score across the formats. Two weeks later, he scored over 110 with just 24% CBAs, and a further two weeks beyond that, he scored over 135 and attended just 32% of centre bounces.

Is there a narrative for why you’d go against selecting him in your starting squad? There are a few. Firstly, you believe he’ll have a slower start to the season. The midfield mix will take time to find a rhythm, and you think Dunkley will score below 100 over these first few weeks. Additionally, you look at the Brisbane early fixture and see some tough matchups early. In round one, they play Port Adelaide, who was historically one of the harder teams to score against. Additionally, it’s a clash against his former team in round three. And based on previous comments he’s made, I suspect the Dogs players will be ready to bite.

It’s banking for many things to go your way while 53% of AFLFantasy, 65% of DreamTeam and 63% of SuperCoach are backing him. In reality, by not starting him, you are cheering for an injury or something bad to happen to him, like a suspension or a concussion. But the reality is that you will want him at some point in the season. So why not eliminate the risk and possible headache and start with him?

Whenever a player is clear and supreme, the best option in his line, I start them. He doesn’t have to increase his scoring either to do that. Even a hold is a jump down to the next best on the known forwards. I’m all for taking a risk, but opting out of Dunkley is unnecessary.

So why is Dunkley at #1 on my 50 most relevant? In essence, it’s pretty simple. I could build a narrative case that every player didn’t have to be selected. In theory, you could find someone else to replicate a comparable scoring outcome in your starting squad or upgraded plans. With Josh Dunkley, given his position, his scoring pedigree, and his ownership, I couldn’t justify or advocate a good reason not to select him.

DRAFT DECISION

Where Josh Dunkley goes on the draft day will be determined by the format you choose to draft within. What will stay the same is that he’s the first forward selected off draft boards. For AFLFantasy scoring formats, he’s right in the mix for the #1 pick overall. And personally, if I had that selection, I’d be picking him there. However, in SuperCoach, the conversation is more open for the top pick. Passing up the handful of 120+ midfielders is a challenge. But if he doesn’t go in the first handful of selections, I don’t see a world where he’s still on in the second round. 

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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AAMI Community Series Review | Bulldogs Vs Lions
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Read Time:3 Minute, 15 Second

For the second night in a row, the AFL was back at Marvel Stadium. This time, it’s with the premiership chasing Western Bulldogs having their last competitive hitout of the preseason against another potential flag contender in Brisbane. Here’s MJ’s take of who stood out for fantasy coaches and who it might be time to fade out on.

Adam Treloar

For some coaches, Treloar is an absolute lock. At the same time, others want nothing to do with him. The crazy thing is that this game probably has left coaches on both sides of the coin feeling valid in their existing perspective. There were moments where Treloar was at his attacking best, dominating the game and kicking goals. While there was also moments despite a heavy centre bounce role, we saw him floating around and not impacting. The uncertainty about his role with Libba not playing might be the decider in his selection for some.

Josh Dunkley

We all have players that we are biased towards, and I certainly am aware that I can see only the positive elements of Josh Dunkley. For you to consider him, you’d have needed to see the trend that across the whole preseason, the coaching staff have wanted to use him heavily through the midfield. Both last week and this week, that’s been evident. To me, you can select him with complete confidence. 

Jackson Macrae

If you don’t have Jackson Macrae in your fantasy side right now, last night was a reminder of just how good he is. A game-high 33 touches and showed signs that what he’s done over the past few years as a fantasy prospect will continue again in 2022. I already had him in my team before last night, but I suspect many will have made some tweaks to find ways to get him in off the back of that reminder.

Marcus Bontempelli

Like Macrae above, if you were keen on Bont before last night, then he gave you no reason to move away from that. His regular midfield presence was accompanied by stints forward. In SuperCoach, he should have another strong year as a viable top tier premium. While in AFLFantasy, if you get the timing right he could be another valuable piece in 2022.

Notable Outs:

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan & Tom Liberatore

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Lachie Neale

In my eyes, he just needed to get through the game unscathed, and he did that. He was spending a few extra months forward of the ball, but I don’t see it impacting his scoring too much—still a great pick in any format in 2022.

Noah Answerth

With the news earlier in the day that Wayne Milera wasn’t getting a game for the Crows coaches, he needed to have a good night to stay in contention for my side. He played well across the wings early and then moved to the halfback once Coleman went down injured. If we don’t get the defensive cows through that we need, then he’s a viable D6 given his job security looks solid early.

Keidean Coleman 

Was looking good off the halfback until a hamstring injury cut short his night. Barring some miracle, it’ll sideline in from being available in round one. Time to find another option!

Jarrod Berry

The midfield role and rotation is real. He attended 11 centre bounces and showcased his inside/outside midfield role. In SuperCoach, he’s almost a no brainer pick with that role. While in DreamTeam, if you need a midrange guy, he’s a genuine candidate. AFLFantasy has priced him out of contention in my eyes.

Jarryd Lyons

Of all the premium midfielders in the Lions side, he’s the one you should have some concerns over. Low CBA’s and with Dayne Zorko and Cam Rayner to return he won’t be finding more. I think it’s time to look elsewhere for another unique.

Notable Outs:

Cam Rayner & Dayne Zorko

About Post Author

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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#5 Most Relevant | Josh Dunkley
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Read Time:7 Minute, 45 Second

2021 was a season of two split experiences for Josh Dunkley and fantasy coaches. Over the opening six weeks, he was among the best players in the game. However, once he came back from injury, he was being outperformed by cash cows. So what does 2022 hold for this Western Bulldog?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Josh Dunkley
Age: 25
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield/Forward

2021 Highest Score: 
151 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
148 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
189 Vs Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2019)
202 Vs Melbourne | SuperCoach (2019)

2021 Average: 
91.5 (AFLFantasy)
102.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $558,200
AFLFantasy Price: $767,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $780,600

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Josh Dunkley is one of the most enjoyable players to own in fantasy footy. The reason being is he finds a way to score through every column imaginable. In reality, he is one of the most well-rounded midfielders in the game. Dunks can win the contested ball, applies high defensive pressure, is a strong tackler, gets into space to win the uncontested ball and is a super overhead mark for his size.

Over the opening six weeks of 2021, Josh was one of the best premiums in fantasy footy. And had it not been for a dislocated shoulder, the scoring trend and midfield dominance would’ve continued. While it was frustrating at the time, it has created a silver lining in 2022. As a result of the injury, Dunks was eased back into the Bulldogs side with a heavy forward role. The result is he has held his MID/FWD DPP for yet another season.

In totality over the season, Dunkley averaged 91.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102.5 in SuperCoach. These overall averages make him one of the highest-scoring capacity forwards. However, the reality is the birds-eye view of his season doesn’t do his year justice. In the first six rounds of the season, he hadn’t had a score dip below 100 in any format and was averaging 115 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and an insane 129 in SuperCoach.

I don’t care what anyone says; that’s insane scoring capacity. If you owned him during these six weeks, you knew that your season was getting an early injection of points that many couldn’t. And for those without him, you were scampering, finding ways to bring him in before his price got too unattainable.

From the moment he suffered his dislocated shoulder, things went pearshaped. He spent months on the sidelines recovering, only to, upon his return, play one match before a two-week stint in isolation due to covid protocols. Throw in a heavy forward role designed to get game time and confidence into his body; it’s safe to say things didn’t go to plan for Josh over the final portion of the season. Positively, in the AFL Finals, things started to trend back to pre-injury scoring capacities. Visually, here are the critical elements of what Dunkley’s season looked like.

2020 was a crazy year for Josh Dunkley. First, he could find himself playing as a defensive forward from an on-field perspective, then a ball-winning midfielder and even as a pinch-hitting ruckman. 

Despite the role rollercoaster ride of his position, his SuperCoach season as a whole held firm. He opened the season with a three-game average of 108, including two scores over 128. Then, however, Dunks was sidelined with a severe ankle injury until round ten.

Upon his return, he played the remaining eight games, scored 3 tons, including a 151 and delivered the lowest score of 87. From a seasonal perspective, he ended the year averaging 104. Not bad for a guy whose role would change constantly. The positive for SuperCoachers is that Josh finds a way to score well regardless of the role he’s asked to execute.

I don’t even need to go into his historical data trends because you get the idea. When given ample midfield time, Josh Dunkley can end the season as not just the #1 fantasy football forward but the top-scoring player overall in all formats of the game.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

One of the things that helped the Dogs win them the premiership in 2016 was versatility and flexibility. The negative for fantasy coaches is that when players are used unpredictably in multiple roles, it can be challenging to have confidence in selecting a player, especially if one of those secondary roles isn’t fantasy-friendly.

Even if Dunkley is one of the Bulldogs caught up in the midfielder merry-go-round with a rotation or two impacted, he still can add forward pressure and convert on the scoreboard, which makes him a damaging option when needed inside forward 50. Just look back at his debut season of 2016. He posted eight scores north of 8, including 4 tons in AFLFantasy, and five times scoring 80+ including a 99 in SuperCoach. So regardless of the role he is needed to fill, Josh will achieve. But will it be in and around the ’90s? Or will it be somewhere north of 110?

Dunkley offers something unique to the midfield options of Tom Liberatore, Adam Treloar, Jackson Macrae, Bailey Smith and Marcus Bontempelli. As an individual, he boasts a high-end defensive workrate, but not at the cost of ball-winning. No other Bulldogs midfielder has that skill combination of Josh. It’s why I believe that the move for him playing him in a more forward heavy role later in the year was linked towards building his fitness than about the best need for the club.

Whenever a player misses multiple months of footy through injury, it always takes time to get back to their peak physically. We also saw that with players like Dylan Shiel and Matt Rowell last year. However, long term injuries are hard to come back from, so the fact Dunkley even got back is a testament to his workrate and commitment.

Selecting Josh, or any other player for that matter, does have an element of risk in the selection. And like any risk, it can be viewed from both perspectives. One angle of viewing the risk is that given the bounty of midfield options the Bulldogs have, you have zero confidence in his role, and thus his scoring variation could yo-yo weekly. The 180-degree perspective is that if Josh Dunkley does have enough midfield minutes, he’s got the scoring ceiling to match it with the best in the game. After 4-6 rounds of him going 120+, you’d have to adjust strategies to bring him in drastically.

Last year at round six, he averaged 115 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 129 in SuperCoach. If you didn’t own him, it was just luck that stopped him running away with your season. He’s got the scoring capability within him. I’d be encouraging you to use hindsight to help.

The risk of him ‘failing’ and going an 85-90 at his price point is of minimal impact to your end of season results. Frustrating? Absolutely, but not a year killer. Going against him and having him pop a 110+ run of games can be season destroying. That’s why I’m starting him everywhere. I think the risk of him failing as a selection is as accurate as the potential of him smashing it. For me, I’d instead lean on the side of the ceiling upside with the knowledge that his downside isn’t as catastrophic as many believe. Others, however, will be different and see the same things but take a different conclusion.

That’s what I love about fantasy footy. We can all see the same data but justifiably come to different conclusions. That’s what the preseason is about, starting a conversation, looking at possibilities and then backing your gut and doing what you believe is suitable for you.

DRAFT DECISION

The drafting range of Josh Dunkley is fascinating to me. In some leagues, he’s a later first-round selection. Others believe the risk of insufficient midfield time isn’t worth jumping inside the first few rounds. Ultimately if you want to own Dunkley, you’ll be spending a top 10-25 selection on him. However, his potential scoring linked to the lack of top-end forwards means he’s someone many will consider strongly early.

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Keeper League Ranks | Tier Three | Patreon Exclusive
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Read Time:17 Minute, 6 Second

Lachie Whitfield

KANELachie Whitfield’s upside is as good as it gets. Having a defender who can average 120 is unheard of, but that’s the ceiling Whitfield possesses. 
In 2019 he averaged 114 points, but when you remove his two injury impacted scores, that average rises to 122. 
In 2020 he averaged 107 adjusted points, but when you remove his concussion impacted game, that average jumps to 113. 
In 2021 he averaged 95 points, but when you remove his concussion impacted game that average goes to 100. 
I think you catch my drift now. When Whitfield is on the field and healthy, he’s one of the best scorers in the game, let alone as a back or forward. It’s worth noting too that in draft you have a time on ground injury threshold that allows you to avoid a lot of these types of scores and field your emergency. 
Clearly, the other factor you have to acknowledge is that for whatever reason Whitfield does miss games. This year it was a nasty liver injury in the preseason that saw him miss the opening six games of the season. 
There also is some concern about what role he has in the Giants team. Whitfield has been deployed as deep as the Giants kick in taker who attacks from D50 or as high as a half-forward who pushes into the midfield and roams the ground. I don’t see these different roles yielding massively different outputs but it’s not as clear cut as other players like Jake Lloyd. 
I’m always drawn to the upside and Whitfield is the type of guy that any season could be the most valuable player in the game and if you’re chasing premierships that’s exactly what you want. 
MJ12 months ago I would have argued like Taranto Lachie Whitfield is a top tier guy. In fact, a case could’ve been made that he’s the player you should pick with the first pick in a new keeper league.
However, in the eyes of some, the concerns are starting to build. For me, they aren’t significant enough to scare me from picking him. However, it’s probably enough to fade him a tier or two.
When fit he’s a jet, but the games missed and in game injuries are slowly building. From a ‘glass half full’ perspective, none of these injuries really are related and are more on the ‘unlucky’ scale than anything else. 
Over the past three season we’ve seen him as one of the most valuable commodities in the draft as both a defender and forward. In 2019 he averaged 113 from 16 games, which featured 13 tons and a likely career high 190. 11 of his 15 games in 2020 where a BCV adjusted 100+ score, while Kane has already touched on his 2021 season.   
Whitfield is a kick first player, and even when tagged still uses his elite endurance to get into damaging spaces.
With the departures of Callum Mills and Rory Laird from the fantasy backline it opens up the possibility of Lachie being the top defender for 2022. I for one believe he will be. 
There is a risk that he becomes a midfielder only in the future, but given his positional versatility he should have multiple seasons where he’s a top tier defender or forward should that eventuate. 

Christian Petracca

KANEIt’s been an incredible past two seasons for Christian Petracca. He’s played all 39 home and away games and averaged 110 points, which puts him top 10 for total points across that time. 
The incredible part of Petracca’s game at the moment is his consistency. Only once this year did he dip below 80 and 14 times he delivered a ton. One of the main reasons for his consistency to me is his score build. In 2021 he averaged 29 disposals, 14 contested possessions, five marks, four tackles and a goal a game. There’s literally no category he’s deficit in. Additionally, he doesn’t get the tag because there’s no one who can match his power in the contest, movement around the ground and forward craft inside 50. 
The thing I think a lot of people are missing is his scoring power. In the last 12 games of the season, which stretches from Round 15 post bye all the way to the Grand Final, he averaged 117 points. In that span he reeled off 10 tons, five of which were 125+. This indicates to me there’s room for Petracca to improve on that career best average of 111 in the upcoming seasons. 
Throw in the likelihood that he’ll finish his career as a mid-forward and there’s not a lot not to like about Trac!
MJChristian Petracca is one of my favourites to own in a keeper league. The breakout took longer than keeper coaches wanted, but now that it’s happened it’s a thing of beauty.
With the adjusted game time and scores of 2020, it’s always challenging to put too much weight into the breakout. While he delivered an adjusted 108 keeper coaches will feel validated in his scoring potential after his 2021 season. 
In 2021 he averaged 110.8, scored 14 tons including 7 over 120. Oddly, he had a seven games stretch midseason where he had only 2 tons. But the front and back end of the season was fire!  CP5 averaged 115 over the first 6 and again 115 in the last 10. So arguably, he’s still got some more upside in him.
Equally as valuable as his scoring ability is his durability. Petracca has missed only one game in five years. I believe he’s the best player in the game right now, and opposition coaches can attest that night now he’s near impossible to stop. 
As we discussed in the podcast, don’t be shocked to see him regaining MID/FWD DPP in various parts of his career not just in his final few seasons. 

Callum Mills

KANEWe finally saw the role change we’d all been waiting for in 2021 from Callum Mills and he didn’t disappoint. 
Mills averaged 110 from his 18 games, but it jumps to 112 points if you remove Round 23 where he was subbed out with Achilles soreness in the third term. 
Consistency was the key to Mills’ fantasy game. In all 17 of his healthy games he scored 85 or more points and in 13 games he scored triple figures, including a 152 and 142. And again it’s no surprise that Mills has an extremely well-rounded scoring profile (28 disposals, 10 contested possessions, six marks and five tackles.)
The key for Mills going forward is can he start producing more ceiling games. Outside of his aforementioned 152 and 142, his only other 120+ scores were 133 and 121. We can’t expect a better floor but if he can start converting his 110s into 120-130s then a 115 average is within reach. 
Even if Mills is unable to up those ceiling games at 24 years of age he shapes as a top 10 midfielder for the next 5 years and there’s always the possibility for him to regain back status at the end of his career. 
MJThe role and scoring breakout finally happened! Keeper league owners for multiple seasons have been awaiting what we saw in 2021.
Callum Mills is an unassuming fantasy scorer. Those who watch the game (not the fantasty scoring during it) can be fooled into thinking he’s not scoring well. However, as Matt Boyd did for the better part of a decade, Mills just finds a way to get involved in everything and without copping much attention.   His scoring breakdown is well rounded. Consisting of 39% kicks, 24% handballs, 16% marks and 19% tackles.  To average 110 and to only deliver 3 games over 130 highlights his low scoring deviation and consistency. 
Mills will enter the 2022 season as a midfielder and farewell his defensive eligibility. The only thing we haven’t seen Callum encounter or overcome is how he handles a tag. But at 187cm and spending the majority of his AFL career as a defender, I think he’s had a solid apprenticeship to handle whatever comes his way. 
He may never become a player that delivers you a 120+ season, but he should be a highly valuable keeper commodity for the next 8+ seasons. 

Tim Taranto

KANETim Taranto bounced back from an injury-interrupted 2020 in a major way averaging 108 points. While his average wasn’t quite the same as his career best of 113 in 2019, for the majority of the season he was on pace for a career-best year.
From Round 1 to 18 he averaged 114 points, which included 13 tons and a lowest score of 86. However, in Round 19 there was a clear role change from centre bounce midfielder to forward. In the four games he played as a predominant forward he averaged 77 points and had a highest score of 98. 
This is clearly a massive concern for a player you’re drafting in the first two rounds of a keeper and while there’s some risk this role shift could continue I don’t think it’s that likely. 
I tend to think Taranto might have been carrying an injury and thus moved out of the midfield to protect him. Across his first 91 AFL games only once did he fail to lay a tackle and that was a 61% time on ground performance in his first season. In Round 19 and 20 this year he failed to lay a tackle and those were the two games he spent bulk time forward. 
To have a 23-year-old that has already produced averages of 113, 108, 94 and 91 inside his first five seasons at AFL level is insane. At worst you’re getting a top 30 midfielder for the next five years at best you could be getting a top five midfielder for the next 10 with the possibility of picking up dpp along the way. 
MJTim Taranto is the perfect reminder of how a player can move up and down the tiers within a season for keeper leagues. If this were being created mid-season you’d be hard pressed to not put him into one of the top 2 tiers.  So why the slide to tier three? It’s relatively simple. Role! I never in a million years thought that Leon Cameron would use ‘TT’ in a primary role other than as an inside midfielder.
However, in the final 5 weeks is when the role shifting started and he started playing more as a half-forward.   
During the first 17 games of the season, he averaged 113, posted 13 tons and had just one score under 90. In the final five games, he averaged 88. But that’s inflated as his big sole ton (132), was where he played back as a midfielder when Josh Kelly was a late out.  
His scoring ceiling is certainly limited if he plays significant midfield minutes. The potential upside is that if that role holds long enough he’d be a candidate to gain MID/FWD DPP. 
I don’t see any risk of selecting ‘TT’ in this tier, and at this point of a keeper draft, you cannot afford the risk. At best the 23 year old delivers on his proven history as a 110+ midfielder. Worst case scenario is he splits his time between midfield and forward but not enough to gain DPP. Therefore he probably becomes a 95 mid.
Taranto will give his owner another 7-8 seasons of top tier scoring potential.  I for one, see him delivering a ton in every single season during that stretch of time. 

Josh Dunkley

KANEI have to preface this article by saying I may be Josh Dunkley’s biggest fantasy believer. If you’ve listened to me talk about him on any podcast you’d know how highly I regard him and I think it’s warranted.  
So far his fantasy journey has had everything. In his first season he averaged 80 points and was part of the Bulldogs historic premiership. Year two a shoulder injury restricted him to just six games. 
Year three and four is where the fantasy potential started to become obvious to everyone. In 2018 he averaged 96 points, but in his 10 games post bye he went at 109. In 2019 he averaged a career-high 111 points but his season average again doesn’t tell the full story. In the first six games of the season he played forward for an average of 78 points. In Round 7 and for the remaining 16 games of the season he became a pure centre bounce midfielder and exploded, averaging 124 across the stretch. Included in that run were scores of 189, 158, 150 and 145, to showcase his elite ceiling. 
Unfortunately for Dunkley, year five and six have mirrored each other. An injury to his ankle in 2020 limited him to 11 home and away games, while a shoulder injury in 2021 kept him to 11 home and away games also. Despite missing large chunks of both seasons he’s still averaged 90+, which far from kills you. 
A lot of coaches will be scared off by his recent run of injury and inconsistent scoring (I think the two are closely linked) and overlook him inside the first two rounds but I think the upside is so high that he could be the best scorer in fantasy across the next five seasons. 
MJSome might be too turned away to grab Josh Dunkley this high in a keeper league, but his upside has his scoring potential up there with the best.
Unlike others on the list, his scoring forecast isn’t based on an unproven potential. Rather on what he has done. Over the ​​final sixteen matches of his 2019 season, he scored 14 tons, 9 of them were above 120, and 4 over 140 and an average of 123 after the move.
This is a perfect foreshadowing of what he delivered at the stuff of 2021. Before succumbing to a shoulder injury that required a reconstruction he was averaging 115 in the first six weeks of the year. In all of these games, he scored a ton, with a seasonal high including a 151.
Coming back from such a serious injury in season is an incredible effort. Throw in the fact he had to quarantine for 2 weeks after visiting a covid exposure site and it was a slower return to scoring than what he and his owners would’ve liked. Yet, over the last three finals, his tackle count started to return along with his contested possessions. In these games, he scored 95, 101 & 83.
Josh is still just 24, so time is on his side for his owners to continue to reap the benefits of his scoring. Personally, I believe he’ll retain MID/FWD status and be the top scoring forward of 2022. 

Rory Laird

KANEWhat a fantasy player Rory Laird is. Recruited off the rookie list he’s already produced seven premium seasons and none better than 2021. 
Playing as a centre bounce midfielder Laird averaged a career-high 112 points and reeled off 18 tons. Only once did he score sub 90 and that was a 75. 
The standout number for Laird though is clearly how he finished the season. From Round 12 to Round 23 he hit triple figures in every game and averaged 120 points. 
We know Laird is an incredible ball-winner (he averaged 32 disposals this year) but it was his six tackles a game that impressed me as his previous best was four and shows how well he adapted to the role change. 
In addition to his scoring prowess, Laird boasts near-perfect durability and always has the possibility of regaining back status at some point in his career. 
The one concern I see floated is the return of Matt Crouch and what impact that could have. I’m not overly fussed as I don’t see Crouch’s return reducing Laird’s CBA’s, particularly with Sloane likely to be phased out of the midfield as he enters the twilight of his career. 
At 28 years old you still have 3 years at least of strong scoring from a player who has shown to be a premium as a midfielder or defender. Throw in that he’s available every week, you can’t go wrong with Laird. 
MJRory Laird has been one of the best defensive premiums for years.  Between 2016 – 2020 he’s averaged  97, 100, 108, 97 and an adjusted 99 BCV. 
Midway through 2020, he had a role change as a pure midfielder. From then on in he averaged an adjusted 112, a foreshadowing of what was to come this season.
In 2021 this scoring trend continued. He averaged 111, scored 18 tons including 6 over 120. Throw in the fact he dipped his scoring beneath 90 just once and it was a near perfect season. 
Kane’s already highlighted the strong end to the season which would provide coaches with some confidence that perhaps he’s only getting better in the role. 
Over these podcast episodes, you’ve heard us discuss the value of a player having multiple scoring columns. Why does this matter? Simply, it enables a player to have a diversity of scoring options should one be limited either by oppositions game style or other variables.
Last year his scoring split was made up of 37% Kicks, 31% Handballs, 9% marks and 20% tackles. Laird has a near perfect fantasy game. He’s a ball winner, knows how to defend, boasts strong endurance and has the footy IQ to get into space for both offensive and defensive setups.
Not having Matt Crouch play did aid his scoring and midfield development. But Laird is so clever if anything I can only see a 5 ppg regression. Equally as likely is he hits the rare terrority of premium midfielders and backs up his 110 seasonal average. 

Jake Lloyd

KANEIt says a lot about Jake Lloyd that people are disappointed with a 98-point average but that’s the sense I’ve got from the community. 
I think most of that disappointment is rooted in just how well his previous two seasons were. In 2019 he averaged 107 and in 2020 he averaged 114*, which are mind boggling numbers for a defender and place him firmly among the top five most valuable players during that stretch. 
But you’re not here for the past and we want to know how he’ll go in the future. I have Lloyd as 90-100 defender for the next three years and wouldn’t be surprised with his elite durability (missed just one game in the past four seasons), fitness and foot skills that he can’t stretch that scoring for even five years. 
Doesn’t have the upside of some others in this tier but he’s just so safe and gives you a player to build your backline for the medium term at least. 
MJ12 months ago, Jake Lloyd was a genuine first round selection in a keeper league. Lloyd had developed his scoring to such great heights, that he was now seen by many as the undeniable clear best defender. 
While Rory Laird and Callum Mills amongst others went past his scoring last season, Jake still has something that these two no longer possess. Defensive Status!
At 28 years of age, Lloyd still delivered a solid 2021 season. It featured twelve tons and an additional five scores of 90-99. Where his scoring dried up was in his ceiling, last year he failed to deliver anything over 120. 
Regardless of this, he is still one of the most reliable and durable defensive options available. During the past six seasons, he’s missed just two matches.
The departure of Jordan Dawson doesn’t hurt his scoring upside, but it probably doesn’t drastically mean he’ll return to the 110+ seasons. However, over the next 3 seasons, I still see Lloyd as a 95-15 defender and in a keeper league given he’ll hold his status that’s a highly valuable asset.  

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SuperCoach Season Wrap | 2021
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Supercoach Season Wrap | 2021

With the Supercoach season complete what better time than now to do a review. After all, the clubs are doing their performance reviews this week (some better than others by the sounds) so why wouldn’t we serious coaches do the same!

This season wrap looks at two things. (1) What was; that is, the players’ scoring and how it all ended up in terms of rankings. And (2), what could’ve been; those opportunities that were provided for us or those harsh realities of injury and selection that dealt us a tough blow. This is probably the more triggering part as we look back on our decision-making and the bad luck we were hit with. 

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What Was – The Player Rankings

Defenders

Rory Laird was the best defender by quite a margin, averaging 116 from 22 games. He was also the ninth best midfielder too, and as a DPP he was an extremely valuable player to have in our side. It’s no wonder nearly 60% of us had him. 

In somewhat of a surprise Daniel Rich took out the second best defender position. He was only owned by 13% of teams, and that’s at the end of the season. His form was solid and he ended up with an average of 107.  

Jack Crisp is also a tad surprising given other defensive options we had. With Darcy Moore’s injury Crisp had a terrific second half of the season and ended with an average of 104. He was only owned by 6.9% of teams in the end and puts himself in contention for our 2021 squads. 

Jake Lloyd was basically a lock at the start of the season with 50% of teams selecting him for round one. He didn’t have the year he had last year, but nonetheless he still averaged 107.8 and was the fourth best defender. A good pre-season and he’ll be a shoe-in again next year. 

His teammate, Jordan Dawson, has had a great season to average 101 and take the fifth best defender. He wasn’t particularly consistent but had some big number games, including the final round. Only 2% of coaches had him and they would have benefited greatly. 

To make up the final six is Jayden Short. He averaged 98.3 but caused his coaches a wide range of emotions with his up and down scoring. His solid performance meant he nudged out the likes of Tom Stewart, Jordan Ridley, and Callum Mills, all of whom had good but injury (or COVID) impacted years. 

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Midfielders

It’s no surprise that Jack Macrae takes out the number one midfield spot, as he’s also the number ranked player across the board. He continues to put together strong seasons and is a lock in most starting lineups. His average of 128 and his durability to play 22 games will continue to keep him in the mix for a few years yet. 

Jack Steele had another great season, ranked number two in the midfield and had his ownership gradually increase as the season went on. This season showed his ceiling and a solid VC/C option for coaches. 

Clayton Oliver had another great season, albeit there were times as a Clarrie owner where I felt his form dipped when I needed him to perform. His average of 123 is nothing to smirk at though, and it’s no wonder he is owned by nearly 40% of teams. 

The Bont, Marcus Bontempelli, is another midfielder who is often one of the first picked in any side. He shared plenty of points with his teammates and was a regular top scorer for the Bulldogs. For 2022 he’ll be priced very competitively and plenty will jump on early if this year’s form is anything to go by. 

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Each year we’re looking for that breakout player and for our midfielders this year that man was Touk Miller. There’s not much to write home about coming out of the Gold Coast Suns, but Miller’s form and solid scoring week in and week out proved that this year was a big one. In the end he averaged 124.5 and was the fifth best ranked midfielder. At the end of the season only 9% of us coaches ended up with him in our side so he continued to be a POD right up until the end. Another to look to start for 2022, albeit at a high price.

Another POD for the season came out of the Brisbane Lions. Jarryd Lyons ended up with 12% ownership and performed solidly throughout, showing off some terrific ceiling on his way to an average of 117.6. 

Other honourable mentions in our midfields are the likes of Tom Mitchell, Sam Walsh, Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish, and Ollie Wines. All of these guys averaged over 112 and played 22 games. It will be a hard decision to work out who to include in our starting teams next season. 

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Rucks

For the first time in a couple of years the final ruck rankings do not start with Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy. 

Gawn did take out the number one ruck position, however it wasn’t as dominant as previous seasons. This was his lowest average (120) since injury impacted the 2017 season (97). Nevertheless, he was a set and forget option and continues to be for 2022, particularly with a lower starting price than this year. 

Nic Naitanui managed to take the second top ruck spot with some great scores and a full season of games. He’s often left off the Supercoach analysis as a sure thing because of previous injury affected seasons, and there’s a sense of not being able to trust him. This season proved he could do the job and will be a good price come 2022 that will make many consider more than they did this year. 

The breakout player for our ruck lines was easily Sean Darcy. Perhaps it’s because he plays for a team in the West that many coaches don’t consider him, but even as we close out the season he is only owned by 3% of teams. As a highlight, his 193 and 187 in rounds 16 and 17 were gems and turned heads throughout the SC community. One to ponder for 2022 for sure. 

Brodie Grundy didn’t really have the season we expected of him, particularly after that neck injury. He still managed an average of 115 from 20 games, and quite some way in front of the likes of Todd Goldsteain (100.8) and Tom Hickey (103.3).

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Forwards

The forward lines were the most troubling of the lot for us, if I remember rightly. There weren’t many on offer, nor were there decent enough rookie options throughout the season, and there were plenty of injuries affecting forwards or DPP’s. 

However, Dayne Zorko showed up to take the number one forward position (keeping in mind he’s a DPP). He has had a good ceiling for many years and a solid performer for many teams. His average of 109 was competitive, but also pushed higher with games of 140, 162, and 173. He can have an off day and when he does it can make a significant impact on our side. However, with Lachie Neale out for a good chunk of time during the season Zorko played alongside Lyons and shared the points with him often enough. 

Do you remember the whole debate about whether to bring Jack Ziebell in or not, particularly after the start he had? By the end of round six he was averaging 127! His scoring wasn’t sustainable, but in the end he was able to keep the second best ranking for a forward through the league, which is impressive given he claimed a wooden spoon and played off half back most of the time. 

Ziebell’s teammate Aaron Hall came in as the best third forward, averaging 105 from 20 games. Not being selected for round one, and his first 3-4 performances really put people off jumping on him quickly. However, since Round 7 he only dipped below 100 once and so made his position secure in plenty of teams and was a solid player for those 18% of coaches that had him. 

Bailey Dale knocked together a solid season. His average was only 95 in the end but he was a decent enough replacement for Josh Dunkley when he went down with injury. 

It’s not all that common to have a true key forward in the top player rankings by the end of the season but Tom Hawkins makes it to number five with an average of 93.9. With the start of the season that Taylor Walker had we may have expected him to still be up here, but that form certainly didn’t continue. However, Hawkins made it this year because plenty of other forwards didn’t average their usual or what was expected of them. 

The breakout player in our forward lines was certainly Essendon’s Nick Hind. A couple of pre-seasons now, and a full season of games into him and look what happens. He only averaged 93.0 but made it into the sixth best forward for the season. In the end only 8% of coaches had him, and were rewarded for their risk-taking. 

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What Could Have Been – The Injuries and Selections

SuperCoach is always a game of what could’ve been. There are sliding door moments each and every week as we navigate trades, captain selections, and strategies around injuries and suspensions. What could have been makes for some of the best banter about Supercoach. 

In 12 years of playing the game I can’t quite remember such a volatile season with injuries, selections (and those dreaded late-outs), and of course this COVID thing. Let me just list off those players who may have impacted you at some point, perhaps even as far back as the pre-season: Lachie Whitfield, Patrick Dangerfield, Matt Rowell, Josh Dunkley, Zac Butters, Bachar Houli, Darcy Moore, Lachie Neale, Jeremy Howe, Luke Ryan, Patrick Cripps, Jordan Ridley, Mitch Duncan, Josh Kelly, Rowan Marshall, Nat Fyfe, Toby Greene, Sam Docherty, Hugh Greenwood, Callum Mills, Dustin Martin, and Tom Stewart. That’s a fairly long list of significant players who were out for a period of time. It was carnage for a few coaches regularly throughout the season. 

On the other side of the ledger there are always those precious rookies and mid-pricers who seem to do more than we think they’re capable of. Think of the Hawthorn duo, Changkuoth Jiath and Jarman Impey. They both made coaches some solid points in the first half of the season and plenty of coin to trade with as well. As mentioned previously, a Crisp, Dawson, Mills type helped considerably along the way. The Sydney rookie midfielders were very serviceable in those opening six rounds, Braedan Campbell, Chad Warner, and Errol Gulden.

James Jordon certainly provided some points and cash for those who timed it right, and North Melbourne’s Tom Powell did the same. And of course, one of the bigger targets for many coaches at the start was Matt Flynn, an R2 strategy for many in the end. He managed to grab the coin we needed but was omitted for a couple of weeks there which raised concerns come bye time. Those mid-pricers or competitive priced players who made good on their promising risk were the likes of Dyson Heppell, Darcy Parish, Nick Hind, Aaron Hall, and perhaps Jordan De Goey for his second half of season. 

Needless to say, there were some breakouts, there were some flops, but whatever the case it was another season to learn from and take the opportunity to improve on for next season. It’s those could’ve and should’ve moments that may make us shudder, but at the end of the day we’ve got to keep it all in perspective and they provide any chance to learn for next year. And sometimes it’s just unlucky. With this in mind, rest easy from Supercoach and sit and enjoy the promising finals series. Well done again on making it through the season, and all the best in your pre-season preparations for 2021. 

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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