For the past 18 months, Connor Rozee has continued to elevate his AFLFantasy & SuperCoach, scoring the premium levels. In 2024, can the new Port Adelaide Captain become part of the fantasy football elite?
WHY IS HE RELEVANT?
Connor Rozee is among AFL’s most skilful players, celebrated for his precise ball handling, astute decision-making, and polished right-foot skills. Showcasing his durability and consistency, Rozee didn’t miss a match in 2023, further cementing his status among the elite midfielders in the league.
He hit personal highs with an average of 25.8 disposals, 4.7 tackles, and 3.8 clearances per game. While his role saw him spending less time in the attacking 50 than in previous seasons, his prowess in the forward line remained undeniable, netting 21 goals throughout the year.
Connor Rozee’s fantasy football statistics from the 2023 season reflect his standing as a top-tier midfielder in the AFL. In AFLFantasy, Rozee boasted an impressive average of 105.8 points per game, with 16 scores of 100 or more, including five scores over 120 and three surpassing 130, while maintaining consistency with only two scores dipping below 80 for the entire year. This remarkable performance positioned him 10th for total points and 16th for average points across all players.
The SuperCoach format further highlighted Rozee’s prowess, where he achieved an average of 107.5 points. Here, he tallied 14 ton-plus scores, with five exceeding 120 points, underscoring his ability to hit high scores, including standout performances of 140 and 141 points. Rozee’s reliability was evident, with his scoring only falling below 90 on two occasions and maintaining a season-low of 75. He ranks 14th for total points and 26th for average, making him the 19th-ranked midfielder.
Rozee’s form trajectory showcased significant improvement as the season progressed. In AFLFantasy, he closed the season with 13 of his last 14 games scoring over 100 points, highlighting his scoring acceleration with six scores over 110, three over 120, and two above 130. SuperCoach reflected a similar pattern of consistency and high performance. Rozee posted only one score under 90 in the last 19 games, illustrating a clear uplift in his scoring post-bye, with averages of 106.5 and 109.2, respectively.
This pattern wasn’t new; Rozee had shown a similar trend in the previous year, 2022, where his performance surged post-bye, averaging 101.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 106.8 in SuperCoach over the final eleven games.
The last seven matches of that year saw him push even higher, with averages reaching 110 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 112 in SuperCoach, confirming Rozee’s ability to escalate his game in the latter half of the season. This consistency and capacity for high scoring in crucial stages make Connor Rozee a valuable asset for fantasy coaches, promising a blend of reliability and explosive scoring potential.
Rozee’s multifaceted scoring ability makes him an exceptional talent that is difficult for opponents to contain and highly valuable for fantasy coaches. His versatility on the field allows him to accumulate points across various statistical categories, contributing significantly to his overall fantasy scores.
A standout example of Rozee’s diverse scoring capability was evident in Round 16 against Essendon, where he managed a 140+ score across formats with just 23 possessions. His impact was magnified by his all-around performance, which included nine marks, nine tackles, and three goals, showcasing his ability to score heavily without solely relying on disposals.
Similarly, in a Round 10 clash with Melbourne, Rozee demonstrated his capacity to dominate in different ways. Accumulating 31 possessions, he complemented his ball-winning prowess with five tackles and five marks, translating to a 121 score in AFLFantasy and an impressive 140 in SuperCoach.
These performances underscore Rozee’s dynamic role within Port Adelaide’s lineup, where his contributions extend beyond traditional midfield duties. His ability to score in “multiple columns” — through disposals, marks, tackles, and goals — underscores why Rozee is not just a challenge for his on-field opponents but also a coveted asset for fantasy football teams, offering a robust scoring profile that enhances team performance across multiple scoring categories.
Connor Rozee’s scoring growth presents a multifaceted opportunity rooted in personal improvement, team dynamics, and strategic positioning within fantasy drafts. Despite a stellar season, Rozee only exceeded 30 possessions in two games, highlighting a tangible area for personal growth. Considering he had the lowest possession average among players who scored 100 or more in AFLFantasy, an increase in ball-winning could significantly boost his scoring potential.
Port Adelaide’s overall team strategy could also be pivotal in Rozee’s fantasy output. The team’s ranking at the lower end for disposals and marks per game suggests that even a minor shift towards a more possession-oriented game style could dynamically enhance Rozee’s scoring avenues, leveraging his skills in a system that prioritizes ball movement.
The challenge of being a tagged target emerged in two specific rounds last year, affecting Rozee’s scoring somewhat. However, with tags likely to be distributed between him and Zac Butters based on matchups, Rozee’s resilience and adaptability to overcome such defensive attention will be key. Furthermore, the potential increased midfield role for Ollie Wines could indirectly benefit Rozee, allowing him to exploit his capabilities as a second-touch player and capitalize on his elite skills away from his primary clearance duties.
The Round 13 bye week adds another layer of strategic consideration for fantasy coaches, echoing discussions around other Port Adelaide premiums like Caleb Serong and Zak Butters. Securing a premium player with a Round 13 bye offers structural advantages through the multi-bye rounds, making Rozee an attractive option for maintaining balance and competitiveness during these critical stages of the fantasy season.
The decision between Rozee and Butters often comes down to their relative cost and perceived scoring potential. With Butters being approximately $60,000 cheaper in AFLFantasy and Rozee around $30,000 less in SuperCoach, budget constraints might influence the choice for coaches looking for value. Ultimately, if coaches are confident in Rozee’s ability to elevate his average to 110 or above, starting him becomes a viable strategy backed by individual improvement, team play enhancements, and strategic draft positioning, promising a robust return on investment in the fantasy football arena.
In fantasy football drafts, Connor Rozee’s versatility and high-scoring capability position him as a top pick, likely securing a spot as an M1-M2 in AFLFantasy and solidly an M2 in SuperCoach. Given his remarkable performances, especially in the latter half of the season, Rozee’s appeal is undeniable.
However, in SuperCoach, where the competition among midfielders is fierce, Rozee might still be available as a valuable M3 pick for those lucky enough due to the presence of other high-calibre players like Jack Steele, Touk Miller, Sam Walsh, Josh Kelly, and Tim Taranto, who, despite averaging lower than Rozee, also command early draft consideration.
This slight variance in draft position between formats underscores Rozee’s fantasy relevance and the strategic depth fantasy coaches must navigate when selecting their midfield lineup, balancing Rozee’s proven scoring prowess with the broader context of available midfield talent.
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Zak Butters’ ascent into the elite echelons of AFL midfielders has fantasy coaches buzzing, especially after his standout 2023 season with Port Adelaide that blended hard-nosed play with top-tier skill. We dive into Butters’ fantasy football prospects, unpacking his potential for both SuperCoach and AFLFantasy amid expectations of increased scoring and the strategic nuances of Port Adelaide’s dynamic midfield lineup.
WHY IS HE RELEVANT
Zak Butters has rapidly become one of the most electrifying talents in the AFL, epitomizing the modern midfielder with his blend of relentless intensity and exquisite skill. The 2023 season marked a significant milestone in Butters’ career, showcasing his evolution from a promising young talent to a cornerstone of Port Adelaide’s midfield brigade. Playing every game of the season, Butters demonstrated durability, remarkable consistency, and impact on the field.
His 2023 campaign was stellar, with Butters averaging 27.5 disposals, five marks, and 4.4 clearances per game, which places him in the ‘elite’ category, according to Champion Data. These statistics reflect his ability to find and use the ball effectively and his significant contribution to the team’s overall performance. Butters’ agility, decision-making, and knack for winning contested possessions have made him a pivotal player in Port Adelaide’s setup, capable of changing the course of a game with his actions.
The accolades he received during the year speak volumes about his quality and the respect he commands across the league. Winning the John Cahill Medal as Port Adelaide’s best and fairest is a testament to his immense contribution to the team. Further recognition came with his selection in the All-Australian team, highlighting his status as one of the premier midfielders in the competition. The AFL Coaches Association’s Champion Player of the Year Award, AFL Players’ Association’s Most Courageous Player Award, and a third-place finish in the AFLPA’s MVP Award underscore his exceptional performance throughout the season.
Butters’ 2023 season solidified his reputation as a key player for Port Adelaide and marked his arrival as one of the AFL’s elite midfielders. His dynamic playstyle, with his awards and statistics, illustrates his significant impact on games. As we look ahead to the next season, he is a crucial figure in fantasy football discussions for AFLFantasy & SuperCoach sides.
Butters showcased his scoring prowess in AFL Fantasy by averaging 99.4 points per game. His ability to break the 100-point barrier on 13 occasions, with 5 of those scores surpassing 120 points, highlights his potential for high-scoring outputs. The fact that his scoring dipped under 80 in only four games underscores his reliability as a fantasy option. Despite these impressive numbers, he ranked 17th for total points and 28th overall for average, indicating the competitive nature of midfield selections in AFL Fantasy but also pointing towards his significant contribution to fantasy teams.
In SuperCoach, Butters took his game to even greater heights, averaging 113.8 points. This remarkable average was buoyed by his ability to score 15 tons over the season, with 9 exceeding 120 points, showcasing his game-changing potential in this format. His consistency was further evidenced by having only two scores under 80 points. Butters’ SuperCoach performance placed him 6th for total points and 13th overall, making him the 9th-ranked midfielder, indicating his elite status in this fantasy football format.
Zak Butters’ transition in Round 4 of the 2023 season from a forward with midfield stints to a primary midfielder marked a pivotal shift in his role at Port Adelaide and his fantasy football output. This role change catalyzed a significant uptick in his performances, elevating his averages to 104 in AFLFantasy and 118.4 in SuperCoach from Round 4 onwards. This adjustment highlights Butters’ versatility and capability to excel in a midfield-centric role. Given the discrepancy between his early-season scoring and post-role-change averages, his starting price in fantasy may carry an inherent value.
Further underscoring Butters’ potential for fantasy football dominance was his six-week performance between Rounds 8-13. During this period, he elevated his game to an even higher level, averaging 121 in AFLFantasy and 129 in SuperCoach. These numbers indicate an “Uber premium” fantasy player, showcasing Butters’ ability to consistently deliver high-scoring games over an extended period. This phase of the season demonstrated his scoring ceiling and capacity to sustain elite fantasy scoring rates, solidifying his status as a player with top-tier potential.
This scoring improvement and sustained high performance following his role change make Butters an attractive proposition for fantasy coaches. With the potential for value in his starting price and evidence of his ability to perform at an uber-premium level, Butters represents a compelling selection for those looking to capitalize on a midfielder with significant upside. As fantasy coaches evaluate their strategies and rosters for the upcoming season, Butters’ post-role-change trajectory and demonstrated scoring pedigree should weigh heavily considering midfield selections.
One critical factor that enhances Zak Butters’ appeal for the upcoming fantasy football season is his newfound durability. Historically perceived as a high injury risk due to having yet to play more than 20 games in a season, Butters shattered this narrative in 2023 by participating in every game of Port Adelaide’s campaign. This significant milestone not only dispels concerns regarding his injury proneness but also demonstrates his ability to withstand the rigours of a full AFL season.
Playing all 23 games, Butters provided consistent fantasy outputs and reliability for fantasy coaches who had previously been wary of his injury history. This development adds another layer of attractiveness to selecting Butters in fantasy drafts, as coaches can now have increased confidence in his availability and contribution throughout the season, making him a potentially vital component of any successful fantasy football strategy.
Port Adelaide’s early-season fixture further brightens Zak Butters’ fantasy football outlook, which presents a significant upside for his scoring potential. The Power’s schedule sees them playing seven of their first ten games at Adelaide Oval, where Butters has historically thrived, particularly in SuperCoach. In his last five SuperCoach games at this venue during the previous year, Butters delivered astounding scores of 158, 139, 134, 101, and 81, showcasing his exceptional ability to post high scores on home turf. An average of 122.6 is more than handy at this venue.
Similarly, in AFLFantasy, Butters’ affinity for Adelaide Oval is evident, with nine games scoring 110 or more points throughout the season. Notably, 5 of these high-scoring performances occurred at this ground. This trend underscores the significant advantage that the early run of home games could provide for Butters, potentially boosting his fantasy output and making him an even more attractive option for fantasy coaches. The combination of Butters’ proven scoring capacity, particularly in familiar surroundings, and Port Adelaide’s favourable early fixture suggests that he could be poised for a strong start to the season, offering fantasy teams a considerable edge.
The Port Adelaide midfield mix for 2024 is poised to be a critical factor in the team’s AFL campaign and the fantasy football landscape, especially concerning Zak Butters’ role and potential output. In 2023, the Power demonstrated a preference for a concentrated midfield group at centre bounces, with Connor Rozee leading the attendance rates at 69%, followed closely by Zak Butters at 62%, Jason Horne-Francis at 58%, and Ollie Wines and Willem Drew each at 50%. Veteran Travis Boak, while an influential figure, participated in a relatively minor 13% of centre bounce attendances, indicating a strategic shift towards leveraging the youth and dynamism of Port Adelaide’s emerging midfielders.
Looking ahead to 2024, this midfield dynamic presents challenges and opportunities for Butters. His substantial involvement in 2023 underscores his importance to Port Adelaide’s midfield operations and his ability to impact games significantly from the centre. However, the tight midfield rotation suggests that maintaining or increasing his centre-bounce attendance could be crucial for Butters to replicate or surpass his breakout year, particularly as Port Adelaide seeks to balance experience and youth in their on-ball brigade.
In evaluating Port Adelaide’s midfield dynamics for the 2024 season, two critical insights emerge that shed light on Zak Butters’ potential role and fantasy output. Firstly, it’s reasonable to anticipate that the Power will continue with a similar strategy regarding their midfield composition, maintaining a core group of players at the centre bounce attendance. The tight-knit midfield rotation of 2023, which proved effective, is likely to see only minor adjustments, if any, keeping the primary contributors in place, with Butters expected to remain a crucial part of this setup.
Secondly, while there has been considerable preseason speculation about Ollie Wines returning to a more prominent inside midfield role—following a perceived reduction in his midfield engagement as the 2023 season progressed—this development is not expected to impact Butters’ scoring or midfield time negatively. The evidence from a key six-week stretch during the previous season, when Butters averaged over 120 across all formats, and Port Adelaide secured wins in each match, supports this view. During this period, Wines’ centre bounce attendance rate (CBA%) was 58%, a figure skewed by one match against the Bulldogs where his CBA% dropped to 19%. In contrast, it was Willem Drew, not Butters, whose role appeared to be adjusted, as Drew did not surpass 50% CBAs in any game within that stretch, averaging 41% CBAs.
This analysis indicates that any increase in midfield involvement for Wines or Jason Horne-Francis is more likely to affect Drew’s opportunities than Butters’. The midfield configuration, emphasizing the tight five, including Butters, is expected to remain largely intact, with Butters poised to continue his influential role. The synergy between Butters’ high-scoring capabilities and Port Adelaide’s strategic midfield use suggests that any adjustments within the midfield mix will unlikely diminish Butters’ fantasy relevance or on-field impact.
My expectation for 2024 is a consistent midfield approach from Port Adelaide, with Butters firmly entrenched within the core group. Even with potential shifts in roles for Wines and Horne-Francis, the structure and strategy that facilitated Butters’ breakout performances continue, reinforcing his status as a key fantasy football asset and an integral part of Port Adelaide’s midfield plans.
Given their substantial influence on the game, Zak and his teammate, Captain Connor Rozee, stand as pivotal tag targets for Port Adelaide. The strategic decision on who to tag, Butters with his ‘human wrecking ball’ approach or Rozee with his surgical precision and playmaking skills, will likely vary from match to match, hinging on the opposing team’s tactical setup and the specific strengths of their taggers.
This scenario presents a problem for opponents, as limiting one player’s impact inevitably gives the other more opportunities to influence the game. The differing styles of Butters and Rozee mean that teams face a strategic challenge in deciding which player’s influence they are better equipped to mitigate, underlining the depth and versatility of Port Adelaide’s midfield and the difficulty in containing their multifaceted attack.
A key concluding consideration for starting Zak Butters is that he, alongside Connor Rozee, Andrew Brayshaw, and Caleb Serong, offers you incredible scoring versatility across the front half of the season. With Port Adelaide and Fremantle having the round 13 bye as their only week off in 2024, it only allows you to have a premium midfielder playing in the hardest weeks to navigate both in the starting and middle season block.
The case for starting Butters over these three is that he’s shown he’s got arguably the most value within his pricetag in AFLFantasy and arguably the biggest scoring ceiling in SuperCoach if you haven’t considered or placed Zak in any version of your preseason structure versions then your missing out on a potential game changer.
Zak Butters’ draft ranking in fantasy football indicates his rising stature and potential in the AFL. In SuperCoach, his high-scoring consistency and impact on games position him as an M1, reflecting his ability to deliver substantial points and serve as a cornerstone for fantasy teams. In contrast, his historical average in AFLFantasy suggests an M3 status; however, given his recent form and the upside he brings to the midfield, it’s more likely that fantasy coaches will value him as an M2.
This discrepancy between his historical average and current perception underscores the growing confidence in his fantasy potential. Coaches recognise his capability to outperform his previous averages and are thus more inclined to select him earlier in drafts, banking on his continued development and significant role in Port Adelaide’s midfield.
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Fremantle and Port Adelaide battled it out at Fremantle Oval on Thursday night in conditions which had sunshine, rain, and the Fremantle Doctor pumping out some serious wind. As always, these factors need to be considered when trying to draw conclusions from players scores.
Andrew Brayshaw
Brayshaw continued where finished last season and looked phenomenal. He had a great build throughout the game and with Fremantle keeping their tight midfield mix he will continue to score. Just an outright jet of a player and certainly one to consider for your round 1 teams.
Caleb Serong
Another staple of the midfield mix, Serong was another who impressed me. However, he couldn’t find as much space as his counterpart during the game. He could be one who jumps out of the gate early with the relatively easy start the Dockers have in 2023, but the competition at his price point is there.
Sean Darcy
No Jackson, no worries. Darcy looks leaner and fitter as he worked the Port Adelaide ruckmen around the ground with 38 hit-outs. Most impressively, he had 8 tackles and 4 marks. If he continues to put up similar numbers to these with Jackson in the team, he could be a sneaky premium Ruck option.
Hayden Young
For those who were unimpressed by Young last week, the game this week didn’t do much to alleviate those concerns. Young struggled to get much ball expect for in the 3rd where he got a lot more involved. I don’t have as much concerns as others though and believe this is just a blip based on conditions, matchups, and team structure. Still one to strongly consider for starting squads.
Nat Fyfe
Fyfe played out of the goal square for the majority of the game and didn’t look out of place. He kicked a goal in each of the first three quarters and showed his aerial abilities. You could do worse for a cheap option in SuperCoach and Dream Team, but there is no midfield time there for him in 2023 unless an injury occurs to one of the core four.
Liam Henry
With wing spots vacant for Fremantle, Henry put his hand up to be in the frame for a round 1 spot. His hard work impressed me as he ran on the outside wing, dropping right back when the ball was switched. Fremantle wings have scored decently in the past so I wouldn’t be crossing his name off quite yet.
Sam Sturt
Another 200k FWD rookie who could see regular games. Sturt has only played 4 games since being picked in the 2018 draft for the Dockers, but could be a sneaky bench option for us. Worked into the game well as a hybrid forward.
Connor Rozee
High TOG, High CBAs, High Scoring. The game from Rozee is what you want to see from someone you hope to break into the top echelon of forwards in fantasy. He showed he deserves to be in the conversation with the other big forwards for 2023.
Zac Butters
Butters was one who struggled to get involved for the Power. He was thrown around the ground quite a lot and didn’t get the CBA mix that you would have hoped for if you were eager to start him. Perhaps eased into the game after his AC joint setbacks last week. He probably fits in as one to monitor as an upgrade candidate through the season.
Port Adelaide were outright bullied in the Ruck through the game and Lycett struggled to perform aside from the last quarter. One to monitor with the continued struggles we are having to pick a second ruck, but alarm bells are certainly there.
Jason Horne-Francis
Impossible to miss with his high socks, Horne-Francis was also used substantially through the Power’s midfield mix and had flashes of quality. No doubts that he will be a premium at some point in the future, but is 2023 the year that happens?
One of the most remarkable in-season fantasy football turnarounds came from Connor Rozee. From being in the dog house to winning the club’s best & fairest, the move into the midfield was sensational for both his confidence and his fantasy football output. The benefit of the slow scoring start is we have a forward premium with some inbuilt value. Are you on board in 2023?
PLAYER PROFILE
Name: Connor Rozee Age: 23 Club: Port Adelaide Power Position: Midfield/Forward
2022 Highest Score: 144 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy) 162 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)
Career Highest Score: 144 Vs Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2022) 162 Vs Adelaide | SuperCoach (2022)
It could have been a better start for Port Adelaide or Connor Rozee. Over the opening month, they had yet to win a game, and many called for Port to drop Connor as he struggled to impact the games by playing deep inside the Power forward lines. However, by the end of the season, he’d have turned it around that he was named in the 2022 All-Australian squad, won the club B&F and picked up 14 Brownlow Medal votes.
The club significantly changed from round five by throwing Rozee into the midfield. The move happened more out of necessity, with Ollie Wines missing the clash against the Carlton. But from then on, he was sensational. His speed, class and poise were on full display, adding a new dimension to the Power midfield.
In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 88 across the season, which places him as the sixth-highest-ranked forward available to us. He scored nine tons, including 125 and 144, in the season’s final round. He delivered nine scores under 80, but four of them were his opening month of the year.
For SuperCoach, he averaged 93.3 across the year and posted nine tons, and all three of his scores over 120 were monsters! A 153, 154 & 162! His scoring dipped below 80 in nine matches, but like in AFLFantasy, four were before his role changed.
The real story is what happened after the role change. From round five onwards, he scored nine tons across the formats and averaged 97.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102.6 in SuperCoach. As a reference point, ranking that eighteen-week average compared to the other top forwards, he’d be ranked as the third forward in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and second in SuperCoach.
As strong as that data trend is, there’s more upside. In the final eleven games after the bye, he averaged 101.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 106.8 in SuperCoach. And in the last seven matches of the year, he averaged 110 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 112 in SuperCoach.
He’s shown glimpses of his fantasy pedigree over the three previous seasons, with multiple tons and good stretches of games going 80+. But 2022 was different; he did this as a midfielder more than as a crafty forward who occasionally pushes up the flanks.
The primary attraction behind selecting Rozee is that he’s shown the capacity to score at the top end of the forwards but to do so at a haircut of the same price point. Anytime we get some value and save some coin without compromising on our scoring potential is always a win. It allows us to reinvest that cash into some other players and improve our scoring in the totality of our squad.
Everything about ConnorRozee lends itself to the narrative that he’s clearly on an upward trajectory to becoming a premium forward selection for us this season. The combination of value + upside is why so many coaches are starting him this year. At the time of writing, he’s in 36% of SuperCoach, 41% of DreamTeam and 42% of AFLFantasy sides. Those are staggeringly high numbers. I get the appeal, but that is your level for a make-or-break guy in your starting squad. I’m not convinced fading Connor from your starting squad will ruin your season.
Have you been listening to these accompanying podcasts? Over the past few days, Rids has made some valid points on several players that can take a season away from you. However, as good as Rozee could and should be, I’m not sold he has yet shown the ability to take a season away from you. So, are you choosing to get him for value and skimping coin on investing in either Stephen Coniglio, Tim Taranto or Josh Dunkley? Or Can he be at their level?
We can only start so many forward premiums, and we need to create space for variable change should some big names appear to pick up DPP. So to start Rozee, the belief is that you believe he’ll be close enough; if not, score himself enough to become a topline forward option this year.
What should provide coaches with some additional confidence in selecting him isn’t just the fact he’s been having an elite preseason through the midfield. But Port Adelaide has invested seriously in the forward line in the offseason. The addition of Junior Rioli brings a smart, crafty forward into the mix with a dynamic trio of tall forwards. With Junior coming in alongside Orazio Fantasia & Sam Powell-Pepper, it adds some depth immediately. Throw in some more forward rotations from Travis Boak and a developing youngster in Jason Horne-Francis, and it starts to fill out nicely without Connor. This means that Port can now choose to place Connor there when desired, not out of necessity—freeing him up to take up some more slack through the midfield.
Sometimes, we weaponise statistics and data to suit our narrative in the fantasy community. And in this case, the statistics indicate the potential to be a topline premium. However, they also show a four-week average of 44 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 51 in SuperCoach. These aren’t injured games; they happened. And while on the probability scale, he’s more likely to be a premium and a bust, there is a world where he holds and potentially marginally regresses. That could be due to a role split more 50/50 in MID/FWD, or it could be due to the tag. Unlikely doesn’t mean impossible.
Coaches starting with Connor can easily feel justified that he’ll be a strong starting selection. At the same time, those without him will monitor his start to the season and the DPP additions heading into round six. Either way, Connor is relevant and worthy of serious conversations and considerations this preseason.
DRAFT DECISION
The top five forwards off draft boards have a consensus about them amongst the community. Josh Dunkley, Tim Taranto and Stephen Coniglio are many people’s clear top three. However, once these guys are off the draft board, the attention will quickly turn to a forward like Connor Rozee. He’ll be an F1, but he’s someone you could get in the third round of your draft, maybe even fourth if you’re lucky. I know the top-end forwards fall off quickly, but I couldn’t jump onto Rozee with a second-round selection.
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All the talk this pre-season is about a Port Adelaide MID/FWD that could be one the best starting squad options. But none of it is about Zak Butters. He’s got the upside not just to match his more popular teammate, but he could be an even better pick.
PLAYER PROFILE
Name: Zak Butters Age: 22 Club: Port Adelaide Power Position: Midfield/Forward
2022 Highest Score: 137 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy) 136 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)
Career Highest Score: 137 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2022) 163 Vs Essendon | SuperCoach (2021)
It’s amazing how twelve months can change a players narrative can drastically change. This time last year, Zak Butters was one of the most hyped players entering the season. And while over the totality of 2022, there were multiple rollercoaster moments, he’s still entering into 2023 ranked by average as the #4 forward in SuperCoach and #7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam
In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, his seasonal average consisted of six tons. Two were above 120, while his scoring dipped below 80 in seven matches. While for SuperCoach, his average of 96.15 consisted of eleven tons, five above 120 and just six under 80. It’s not a bad effort, given in two of his games, he suffered serious head clashes, another he played with a virus and was also subbed out of one game with a knee injury.
What has coaches salivating entering into 2023 is that after he returned from injury, it appeared that he and the Power coaching staff found the perfect balance. In the final seven games of the year, he averaged 101.1 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 106.8 in SuperCoach. While in the final five games of the year, he averaged 107.4 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 115.6 in SuperCoach.
The scoring glimpses we saw last year were also seen in patches for the two seasons prior. In 2021 for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 76, scored one ton and four additional scores of 80 or higher. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 82, hit triple digits in one game and had four additional scores of 90+. In 2020 he averaged 87 in SuperCoach, which consisted of six tons; five were over 110 and four additional scores 80+. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 62.3 in the shorter games (adjusted 77) and scored one ton (114 pure 142 adjusted) and two other games 80+.
Many readers of our articles and podcast listeners are focused on one thing. Winning it all and getting the highest ranking possible. To do so, plenty of variables need to fall your way, but one thing is required. Pack separation. It can manifest itself in many ways, but ultimately you need something about your team to create separation from the pack and fantasy footy groupthink.
One of the areas in which you can create positive separation is you can opt into selecting a player that others are overlooking with the intent that they can either match or surpass others’ performances that have way higher ownership. For contrast’s sake, when you think of a premium Port Adelaide forward, the first thought for the majority of the community is Connor Rozee. That’s not necessarily a bad or wrong call, but it highlights how much Zak Butters is flying under the radar. Remember, in SuperCoach, Zak averaged more and was only two points per game off him in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. For players that have a similar scoring pedigree, that’s a drastic ownership differential.
SuperCoach
DreamTeam
AFLFantasy
Rozee
33%
38%
42%
Butters
10%
10%
6%
The above isn’t to say you should be on Team Butters or Team Rozee. You can select one, none or both. But rather, it’s to highlight the group think that can exist in the fantasy community and, certainly, the narrative reflected in the early ownership numbers. The seasonal data of Rozee is stronger, but to say they had similarities in the season is unfair. Rozee spent 3/4 of it as a centre-bounce midfielder, whereas Butters had only five games where he attended over 50%. Again, this is not about choosing one over the other but to remind you of the importance of looking broader and deeper to create separation from the pack.
A potentially valid reason to avoid owning Zak is that he’s shown over his AFL career to find multiple ways to get injured. For example, last year was a career season for games played. And yet he still had games where he had multiple head clashes, shoulder stingers, and then in round 14, he was subbed off and missed multiple games with a knee injury.
We’ve discussed players with less-than-friendly injury history throughout the preseason. My basic premise is with these players that if the injury is the question mark, you choose to start or pass on them for the season.
The reason being is that if you start with them, you can bank all the scores they deliver. And with every passing game, the likelihood of injury will only increase. However, suppose you trade into an injury ‘risk’. In that case, you run the gauntlet of not just missing his good scores that attracted you to make them an upgrade, but rather your likelihood of trading into that injury is higher with every game past.
Starting these ‘injury-prone’ players is the best way to offset the risk. If an injury does occur, you have banked every good score available but also spent just one trade, not multiple, on removing him from your side.
One big unknown entering the coming season is what happens to Port Adelaide, especially with their midfield mix. Last year Rozee and, to a lesser extent, Butters showcased the ability to play significant time through the midfield. They will split their time between midfield and forward because they could be in both roles, but how much split is uncertain. Ollie Wines will be the leader of the midfield pack. Then how much time is split across Travis Boak, Willem Drew, and recruit Jason Horne-Francis will be of great interest to watch.
Back to focus on Butters, will he score better with more time around the midfield? Or as a forward by reaping some of the benefits of a stronger midfield unit than last year? Arguably, as the final few months of 2022 showed, he is more capable of playing a 60% forward split and still averaging over 100. I genuinely believe Port found the sweet spot of how to use him to maximise both his competitive and fearless edge through the midfield. While not sacrificing his goal smarts up forward to Port Adelaide.
This preseason time shouldn’t be about locking players in & ruling players out of your starting squad. It should be about trying out multiple different squad formations and combinations. If Zak Butters hasn’t been at least considered before this moment, I suggest you reevaluate it and ponder the potential output he could bring this year.
DRAFT DECISION
Securing a strong F1 will be a coach’s top priority early on draft day. Zak Butters won’t be the top scoring forward, but he won’t have to be where you draft him. Across the formats, Josh Dunkley, Stephen Conilgio, Tim Taranto and Connor Rozee will be ahead of him. All will be top 15-20 selections as coaches scamper to get something strong. I see Zak heading off draft boards starting from the third round and into the early fourth.
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Career High SuperCoach Score: 152 Vs GWS Giants (2021)
Career High AFLFantasy Score: 148 Vs Hawthorn (2022)
Career High SuperCoach Average: 93.4 (2021)
Career High AFLFantasy Average: 98.6 (2021)
Impact on new club
We didn’t have to wait long for our first move of the AFL trade and free agency window, with Karl Amon moving on day one to the Hawthorn Football Club. Immediately, his arrival provides the Hawks with a healthy option across one of the wings. Last year, he averaged 24 disposals and five score involvements per game. His strengths are his running power and the ability to create space between the arcs.
The arrival of the 27 year old will likely not advance the Hawks immediate finals aspirations. Still, it does give them a strong wingman while the nucleus of Josh Ward, Jai Newcombe and Connor Macdonald develop as the core of the future midfield.
I don’t think it’s a bad addition, especially as his salary is the only ‘cost’ to the club. However, I wonder if the Hawks would’ve been better off investing the game time in a teenager that will be at the peak of his power in 4-5 seasons.
Impact on the old club
Over the past two seasons, Karl Amon has transitioned from helpful fringe wingmen into being clearly the Power’s best outside midfielder. His departure isn’t a disaster for the club as they have several candidates who can transition into this role.
At the 2021 draft, Josh Sinn was a player that Port invested heavily into land last year. His combination of elite speed and silky skills could make for a tasty inclusion onto the wings of Alberton. He’s yet to show much of his skills at the SANFL level, but as a junior, he has the skills worth allowing a crack at it.
Port Adelaide could also look to push Kane Farrell up from the half-back flank into the wings, while Miles Bergman, who’s already back into the best 22, looks to possess all the skills to be an elite wingman. With Xavier Duursma already holding down one wing, Port is blessed with several options that could take the spot opened up by Amon’s departure.
Of course, Port could head to the draft with pick #8 and could look to draft Oli Hollands, Cam Mackenzie or Jhye Clark all of whom could easily play across the wings.
Fantasy Summary
Over the past two seasons, Karl Amon has been a handy selection in draft formats with averages in the high 90s in AFLFantasy, and high 80s – low 90s in SuperCoach. Like any wingmen, they almost always score better in AFLFantasy. That’s due to the scoring weighting in SuperCoach being more favourable to contested and high efficiency. Neither of these does Amon excel.
At Port Adelaide, he showed his scoring ceiling with four scores over 120 in AFLFantasy, including a career high against his now club Hawthorn with a 148. However, pure wingmen do experience more scoring volatility than any other midfielder. That’s because they rely heavily upon the services of the inside midfielders. And as promising as the young Hawks midfield looks, it’s not yet to the level of the Power.
In salary cap formats, he’d need to push his scoring north of 10-15 points per game to return a value for money as a midfielder in our starting squads. Even if he stayed at Port Adelaide, I don’t see that happening, so it’s a pass from me.
It’d be in the drafting formats of the game that he’ll be regularly selected. I’d suspect he’s more likely to slide than hold his scoring, but I don’t see him falling drastically off the relevance radar.
Over the past two seasons, Zak Butters has made the All Australian squad of 40 and has delivered a scattering of premium scores. Can he put it all together and be one of the best premium forwards in the game?
PLAYER PROFILE
Name: Zak Butters Age: 21 Club: Port Adelaide Position: Forward
2021 Highest Score: 119 Vs Essendon (AFLFantasy) 163 Vs Essendon (SuperCoach)
Career Highest Score: 119 Vs Essendon | AFLFantasy (2021) 163 Vs Essendon| SuperCoach (2021)
Just a few short seasons ago it was seen by some in the AFL media to suggest anyone other than Connor Rozee was the clear top player picked up in that draft. Now, there’s a case to be made that he’s not even the best player that Port Adelaide drafted that year. That’s no knock on Connor, rather, it highlights the supreme development that’s come from Zak Butters over the past two years.
In 2020 he made the All Australian squad of forty after playing just 34 home and away games of footy. Butters is crafty, clever and a damaging footballer by hand and foot. He’s already been contrasted to teammate Robbie Gray, and if he becomes anything like Robbie then he’ll be a premium fantasy option for many seasons to come.
2021 was a frustrating season for Zak, playing just ten games all year, but in reality two of those were vest affected. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 76, score one ton and four additional scores 80 or higher. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 82, hit triple digits in one game and had four additional scores of 90+. It’s his round two matchup against Essendon that has coaches most excited. He had 36 possessions, 6 tackles, 3 marks, 1 goal, & personal best fantasy scores, a119 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 163 in SuperCoach.
What made the season frustrating is he suffered a serious knee injury in round four against the Tigers. In that game, he played just 57% game time but was on track for another monster with scores in the 80’s across the formats. Between rounds 1-4 he averaged 84 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 103 in SuperCoach. Those averages if delivered over the season would place him clearly as a top ten forward based on current ranks. It’s not just one four-game stretch. Between rounds 20-22 he scored 88, 90 & 91 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, while for SuperCoachhe pumped out a 94, 76 & 96. Throw in the fact he has two vest affected games and he’s clearly value on starting price, let alone what might happen if he can improve his scoring output.
These scoring glimpses were evident the year prior. In 2020 he averaged 87 in SuperCoach, it consisted of six tons, five of them were over 110 and four additional scores 80 or more. While in AFLFantasy/DrewamTeam he averaged 62.3 in the short games (adjusted 77) and scored one ton (114 pure 142 adjusted) and two additional games 80+.
Entering into his fourth season the stars seem to be aligning for Butters to become a genuine star in the AFL and a premium for fantasy coaches in our forward lines.
Over the preseason Zak has been bullish about his intention to spend even greater amounts of time through the midfield. Last year he was a staple of the centre bounce rotation averaging between 20%-40%. When in the midfield he offers a fresh dynamic that players like Ollie Wines, Travis Boak and Willem Drew are unable to deliver.
In the preliminary final loss last year a lot was made over the lack of depth and options available through the Power midfield. And based on that game, it was a fair analysis. However, the club didn’t t didn’t go to the draft or trade period to ‘top up’ with midfielders. That means internally they believe they have the cattle already on the list to add further depth and fresh dynamics to the midfield.
The Port Adelaide forward line no longer requires Butters to play a heavy forward role like it did in 2020. The acquisition of Orazio Fantasia plus the refocus of roles of Robbie Gray and Steven Motlop allows the pear to let Zak ply his trade more in the midfield. I’m not advocating for a release into a full-time midfield move. That’d be robbing Peter to pay Paul. Instead, a split of 60/40 would see the full spectrum of his skillset be maximised.
Even without seeing much improvement in his ceiling, Zak could get better by just elevating his coring basement. If those ’40s-’50s scores that are littered across the past two years became ’60-’70s he’d have done enough to be in consideration as a topline forward option. That increase should come both with an increase in midfield minutes but also natural progression as he enters into the fourth season.
There’s a lot to like about Butters, but for me, I’ve still got some hesitancy to start with him especially in SuperCoach and DreamTeam. Not because I don’t think he can hit an average north of 90, but rather in these formats, we’ve had some significant changes (check them out here) that have hit the game. One of the most notable is the addition of in-season DPP’s much like AFLFantasy coaches have been used to. No longer are the forwards ‘locked for the season.’ But now for rounds six, twelve and eighteen we could have new big premiums added to this line. For example, last season Josh Kelly picked up forward status heading into round six last year. He pretty much averaged 110 in this format for the remainder of the year and became a must-have forward in order to have success.
With DPP’s coming into the game, it means our forward (and defensive) premiums must withstand the potential variance of higher scoring options entering into the line midseason. So my hesitancy about Butters as a starter isn’t about him at all. Rather, it’s about whether or not the scoring bar has been elevated for starting forwards that we now require a minimum average of 100.
In AFLFantasy he’s still a viable starter given you can still look to make $50-$100k off him and flip him into a fallen premium. While DreamTeam & SuperCoach will have 35 trades, I couldn’t advocate for that strategy of game style. I’m certain that covid protocols will hit your team midseason and you’ll need these extra trades.
He’s going to be good this year, arguably every good. But will it be good enough? If you are confident he will push scores closer to 100 regularly and average 95-105 then you’ve got your answer about whether or not he should start for you.
DRAFT DECISION
Much has been made about the forward stocks of 2022. With all formats now offering in seasons, DPP gains the bar of what is a strong Forward may have moved. Some will reach for an F2 spot because they see the upside. Others will react and wait for more F3. I’m of the opinion you can draft him at F2 with confidence.
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The pear spent little draft capital in the purchase of Jeremy Finlayson. The benefit of that is if he becomes little more than squad depth as a tall forward who can also play back, then it’s still a win. However, the upside is that if he can fulfil the role currently held by Peter Ladhams as a tall forward who can play some ruck minutes, it adds even further versatility to Port.
At the time of writing, Ladhams is ‘likely’ out the door, but nothing is official yet. It’s no secret that Port want to get games into Sam Hayes, while Charlie Dixon and Mitch Georgiades also picks himself. How Hayes, Finlayson and even Todd Marshall battle it out for the third tall spot will be a fascinating battle in the offseason.
Impact on Old Club
It’s probably too brutal to say ‘none’, but in reality, it’s not too far from it. The key position stocks at either end of the ground for GWS are more than solid. Jesse Hogan has Harry Himmelberg as his prime tall forward support. But they have depth here with Jake Riccardi, and even Zac Sproule showed some signs late.
Sam Taylor is a potential star in the Giants backline, and he’s got great support from Connor Idun, Nick Haynes, and then further depth with Jake Stein and former skipper Phil Davis.
Fantasy Summary
You’ve got to go back to 2019 for the last time that Jeremy Finlayson was anything close to being considered ‘fantasy relevant.’ That year the Giants made the Grand Final, which still had Jeremy Cameron in the forward line and allowed him to kick 37 goals as a third tall forward.
Since then, Finlayson has had the odd scoring pop, but for the most part, had delivered a wide scoring range when he had been able to get AFL games. Based on the media narrative and reports from the club, he’ll be used in a second ruck option in a role similar to that of Peter Ladhams.
He’s not an option in the salary cap formats of the game, and honestly, most draft leagues. However, deeper draft leagues and daily fantasy genres of the game are his likely saving grace, especially if he picks up RUC/FWD status midseason.
Maybe it’s dangerous to quote Kane Cornes in an article, but he’s adamant that Port Adelaide‘won the 2018 draft’ when they selected Connor Rozee with pick five.
I believe he’s among the top three players at Port Adelaide already. That’s not a slide at Port’s list, rather an indicator at how quickly this 20-year-old is starting to be a dominant force in the AFL. Rozee is quick, athletic, a terrific mark, clean with the ball and isn’t afraid to apply defensive pressure too.
With only limited midfield opportunities, Connor has shown the ability to some big fantasy footy numbers. Rozee played almost exclusively forward in his debut season, and in SuperCoach he averaged 78, posted five tons and an additional four scores above 80. While for AFLFantasy it was two tons, and four more scores above 80.
Entering into 2020 the preseason hype for Connor Rozee, many believed he could be among the rare few players who breakout in their second season. And those who started with him were instantly rewarded. He scored a 105 & 145 in SuperCoach and a 85 & 76 (adjusted 106 & 95).
From then until the final few games of the season Rozee struggled to score. That was largely due to a nagging heel injury that impacted him across the middle portion of the season. He even missed three matches because of it.
However, in round 16 & 17 we saw more of his potential with a 74 & 78 in AFLFantasy and 109 & 95 in SuperCoach, Throw in his preliminary final performance of 81 in AFLFantasy and 96 SuperCoach.
Injuries are never great, but it’s clear from his performances in 2020 that he’s a fantasy performer when he’s fit. Then benefit of these injury impacted games for potential owners in 2021 is that he has some natural value built into his pricing.
It’s evident to all that Connor is moments away from not just dominating the fantasy footy world, but the AFL in general. The question is when will it happen not if.
Ultimately, Port Adelaide have a franchise player in Rozee and should be looking to build the list around him. The question will be are the building with him in mind as a long-term midfielder? Or a midfield/forward? The role he plays long term will ultimately determine his scoring potential both this season and future years.
Securing Orazio Fantasia from Essendon could be a huge benefit not just for what he can do, but the way he releases others. If Fantasia can stay on the park, given his XFactor ability inside forward 50 the necessity for Rozee to play forward minimises.
Additionally, as Robbie Gray is in the twilight of his career he should spend even greater time forward. These two moves will allow Connor Rozee more midfield rotations and an increased scoring projection.
Truth be told the midfield increase could just as easily go to Zac Butters, but there is also a world where I can see both he and Connor take key midfield roles in 2021 and beyond. It’s certainly not a ‘one or the other’ approach.
The heel injury that impacted his 2020 season seems to not to be impacting him this preseason. Recently on the club’s website, he’s ‘good to go‘ and ready to play more time further up the field.
Over the past few articles, we’ve looked at several midprice and stepping stone forwards. The same ‘dilemma’ for them is identical for Rozee. Can he reach near enough to our peak forwards to make his selection worthwhile? Ultimately, your confidence level at answering that question will determine whether or not he’s a good selection in your starting squad.
There are enough question marks on Connor Rozee to put a line through in starting squads. However, In SuperCoach I’m bullish on Connor being a breakout performer, and I believe he’s good enough to push near the top 10 forwards by seasons end.
AFLFantasy he could be a nice stepping stone option over the first few weeks if you think he can fire. For DreamTeam I don’t think he’ll be a season long keeper, so for that reason, it’s a pass.
DRAFT DECISION
By the end of the 2021 AFL season, Connor Rozee will finish ranked clearly inside the top 20 forwards across all formats. However, to snag him on draft day, you likely won’t have to shell out an F2 selection.
If there was a format you’d ‘reach’ early to own him, it would be SuperCoach and is certainly worth a pick before the end of the 10th round. However, in AFLFantasy scoring leagues that is too high in my books.
SuperCoach scoring he’ll be taken as an F3 by someone at the latest. Even though he’s ranked currently as the 52nd best forward, someone will happily pay F3 positioning for him. While in AFLFantasy scoring it’s more likely an F4-F5 pick at the latest.
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