A short and sharp one this week as we approach the home stretch. This week’s list includes a developing side’s new recruit who hasn’t been able to get a regular game plus a Kangaroo veteran back after 3 months on the sidelines.
Jackson Hately – Adelaide % oned – 49% 2021 average – 64.5
After joining last year’s wooden spooners in the off season, we had expected to see a lot more of Hately to this point of the season. After leaving GWS for more senior opportunities, Hately has only featured in two AFL games for Adelaide this season as he continues to ply his trade in the SANFL. He laid an impressive 11 tackles across those two games but it wasn’t enough for him to keep his spot in the developing side.
He is averaging 23 disposals and 7 tackles from his 8 matches in the SANFL this season which included an impressive 31 disposal, 8 tackle performance against Sturt a couple of weeks ago. Although he was quiet on the weekend, the injury to Rory Sloane opens the door for Hately’s return to the AFL side and I expect him to make the most of his chance this time.
Jared Polec – North Melbourne % owned – 51% 2021 average – 58.3
Polec has been a somewhat polarising figure since his high profile move from Port Adelaide at the end of the 2018 season. He played every game in his first season at North Melbourne (averaging a neat 88.2) but found himself omitted on multiple occasion last year despite regularly being amongst the team’s highest ball-winners. He still managed to average 71.2 (89 adjusted) from 13 matches.
A new coach for season 2021 suggested Polec would be given every chance to recapture his best form this year but he was struck down by a serious hamstring injury in round 3 which also skewed his average (he was averaging 74.5 from his first two games). After 3 months on the sidelines, Polec returned in the VFL on the weekend with 28 disposals and should return to the senior line up this week.
Sam Flanders – Gold Coast % owned – 36% 2021 average – 62.3
In just his second season, Flanders has more than held his own at AFL level well, quietly putting together a solid season playing as a small forward with spurts in the midfield. He isn’t accumulating big disposal numbers just yet with the 20 against North Melbourne the highest he has tallied in a game but in every game he has avoided being a sub, he has laid 2 or more tackles (including 5 tackles three times). One for the future, but with his DPP status, is certainly worth keeping an eye on for the run home.
Death. Taxes. And another round where Dayne Zorko shows us the ceiling he’s capable of. All things true in life and Supercoach.
For those wise enough to have the VC tag on him on Thursday night were well rewarded with a 174 becoming 348. And for anyone considering grabbing him now he comes at an elite premium cost, rightfully so. Brisbane romped it in against Geelong, which saw the likes of Daniel Rich, Oscar McInerney, and Joe Daniher get amongst the tons. For those who have held Daniher, in particular, their patience is paying off in his current run of form. Lachie Neale battled well after what looked like a serious shoulder injury as well. On the Cats front, Patrick Dangerfield’s 97 keeps him in the mix for our forward lines, especially as he is now under 500k. Expect the 8% ownership to rise significantly in the coming week or two. Joel Selwood was looking sore by the end of the match and Tom Stewart was held well in defence. There’s no need to panic, but it’s worth watching.
The upset of the round became a talking point across the weekend. The Saints keeping the Tigers to 22 points was quite amazing really. Jack Steele’s 132 continues his great form this season, and Tommy Highmore makes more cash for his owners as well with a 91. Jayden Short nudged another 100 but everyone else really didn’t deliver what was expected of them. I feel for those who bought in Shai Bolton this week too. Ouch.
Wasn’t it great to see Brodie Grundy back doing his thing? He topped the scoring against the Dockers with assistance from Steele Sidebottom (115) and Taylor Adams (110). Andrew Brayshaw had a good game with 110 for the Dockers, while Sean Darcy continued his decent ruck season with a 90. Those who had held Nat Fyfe through the bye rounds were unfortunately hit a blow with his late out. A watch and see for this week by the looks.
North’s second win of the season against the hapless Suns provided plenty of high scores. Todd Goldstein helped his 8600 coaches with a 136. Ben Cunnington did it again for his owners and those who have decided to take the gamble on Jy Simpkin are reapingthe benefits with his 122. For the Suns, Touk Miller and Brandon Ellis. Enough said.
Lance Franklin nearly won it for the Swans in that final quarter but the Power managed to get it in the end. However, those that do own Franklin helped themselves to a nice 130. Callum Mills continued his run of form and Luke Parker also shared in the points. Jake Lloyd had his most underwhelming game of the season with a 73, and those who have held Heeney really have made an error in judgement as his score of 57 dropped his price by $36.6k. Travis Boak and Dan Houston topped scored for Port and showed glimpses of their opening season form.
Melbourne beat Essendon in a tight affair. The Dons top scorers were Zac Merrett with 147, then the usuals of Darcy Parish (121), Dyson Heppell (121), and Jordan Ridley (111). A number of teams may own all four of them, let alone one. Melbourne’s scores were okay. Nothing exceptional. And those of us who put the C on Max Gawn are surely now looking elsewhere as he has proved to be lackluster when sharing roles with young Jackson and being placed in the forward line to help their lack of tall options.
The Hawks over the Giants was also surprising, perhaps more so embarrassing for GWS. Nevertheless they still provided plenty of points for us. Whether you own Lachie Whitfield (116), Josh Kelly (110), Tim Taranto (100), Callum Ward (98), Nick Haynes (94), Matt Flynn still (84) or Toby Greene (84) I’m sure there was something in there for you. For the Hawks, surely it’s only Tom Mitchell who continues to be relevant? He scored a helpful 118 for his owners and stays in consideration for that M8 position. But poor Jarman Impey coaches were dealt a blow after his training incident on Friday afternoon. There’s a trade decision to be made there.
With an under-firing midfield the Eagles got done by the supremacy of the Bulldogs mids. Low scores by Tim Kelly, Andrew Gaff, and Luke Shuey didn’t help any Eagles owners. Perhaps that only satisfied coaches with an Eagle in their team are those who have stuck with Nic Naitinui all season. Why this guy isn’t talked about more this season I’m not quite sure. He’s ranked as the second best ruck in SC now and while Grundy has been out for a few weeks he averages 113 and has not scored under 90 since round one! Then we turn to the Dogs and see the usuals yet again. Marcus Bontempelli with a monster 156, followed by Jackson Macrae (136) and Bailey Smith (123).
The Blues did the job over the Crows. Jacob Weitering had a great 143, while it was good to see Sam Walsh nab a 131. Coaches who have held Walsh in his ups and downs this season would’ve been pleased, not to mention any Blues fan. Rory Laird and Tex Walker grabbed tons for the Crows too, but other than that the relevancy of everyone else may be hard to justify.
It was finally good to get through the byes and have some ripping scores this week. There’s nothing quite like the peace of having 22 players named and playing is there?
The multi bye rounds are over. We now have an additional eight teams with no more scheduled rests for the remainder of the season. So here’s a club by club breakdown of potential upgrade targets who have just had their bye round.
Of all the club write-ups, I think the Crows have the least potential ‘relevant picks.’ The move of Rory Laird into the midfield has been inspired, and his scoring has been prolific across the season. Across the formats, he is the #2 ranked defender in averages and by total points. In fact, he’s under 20 points shy of the top spot. If you don’t own him, the damage has been done. The only world I’d advocate for him as a ‘trade in’ target is if you need to minimise his impact against you in rankings or league battle.
Ben Keays has been a star for his owners! In the draft formats of UltimateFooty, his average draft position was 207. With an average of 109 to date, he’d easily make the podium of the top draft day picks of the year. What’s fantasy footy 101? Ask those who traded into Darcy Parish this past round. Sadly they know it well now. Buy low, sell high! I wouldn’t be buying stocks on Keays, he’s been great, but even with his low ownership, it’s not worth paying up for.
You either have Reilly O’Brien at R2 currently, or your planning on trading in Brodie Grundy ASAP. ‘ROB’ was only an option three weeks ago when Brodie went down injured. He isn’t someone I’d advocate for as an upgrade now. His previous 3 game average is an improvement on his season in total. But for the extra $100-$150k across the formats, I’d rather Grundy every day of the week.
It’s not an upgrade, but expect the Crows to give a handful of games to last seasons #11 pick Luke Pedlar. The tough clearance winner possesses explosive speed from traffic. He’s not a basement price midfield cow, but he might be a pulse to end the season.
Two weeks ago, Nick Haynes was an obvious ‘buy low’ premium. From Collingwood, coaches have another ‘obvious’ buy low pick up in the midfield. Scott Pendlebury is coming off the back of a 167 in SuperCoach and is priced at just over $424,000. He had an injury affected role change midseason, but since overcoming that hand injury in the past fortnight, he’s delivered consecutive 100’s. If you need a cheap M7 or M8, then Pendls is your man. He has a decade of averaging over 100 in this format.
He’s arguably even more tempting in AFLFantasy, where he’s recently picked up forward status. With scores of 104 & 98 in his past fortnight and priced at under $600,000, he’s an easy no brainer selection.
We spent plenty of time on our latest podcast discussing the urgency of when to trade into Brodie Grundy. My best encouragement is to go and listen to it. Ultimately the who (you trade out) and how you plan to get him determines whether or not I feel he’s a priority this week or not. Ideally, we’d all want him on our completed side.
Mr Consistency in our backline over the past few seasons has been Jack Crisp. With low scoring deviation, he’s certainly a player that has some appeal to coaches. Personally, I’d look for either someone that is a comparable performer but cheaper. Or someone at a similar price with a greater scoring ceiling.
Due to suspension Jordan DeGoey isn’t available to play for the Pies or our fantasy teams this weekend. But prior to the bye his previous three games we’d started to see the preseason midfield role eventuate. In his last three games in SuperCoach he’s scored 88, 70 & 115 with an average of 91. Not bad for a guy priced less than $100,000 upgrade from Harry Jones.
Similarly, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam his past three have been 109, 78 & 106 at an average of 97.7. He’s the ultimate definition of ‘buy low’ and while I get he can be frustrating to own, he’s still a high potential value F6 for coaches looking to finalise their team if cash is tight.
At the start of the season, it felt like one of the most obvious premiums we’d want in our forward lines would be Steele Sidebottom. For one reason or another, it’s been a patchy season from Sidey. He’s getting some midfield minutes, but what role does he hold under Robert Harvey? Best to wait a week or two to see before committing.
I’m a big fan of Andrew Brayshaw. I genuinely believe that he’s on the cusp of becoming one of the next big midfielder Uber premiums. He’s in a weird price where he’s not the crazy value of others, but not also the safe 110 of others at a slightly high price point. Still, he should be a consideration as an option.
The scoring of Luke Ryan certainly lends himself more to SuperCoach than other formats, but he’s still got the ability to get on a hot run of form everywhere. In SC, he’s averaging 110 in his past five, including two scores over 125. In just 8% of sides, sometimes paying up for something different is worth it.
The time to trade into Sean Darcy has come and gone. The two opportunities were when Matt Flynn was dropped when Darcy what at his basement. Or a month ago when Brodie Grundy was injured. Not now! Yep, even in AFLFantasy, where he’s an RUC/FWD. I couldn’t pay the $100,000 more to choose him over Pendls.
Clayton Oliver has been one of the best midfield picks of the season. However, I don’t believe he’s worth paying up for. Part of this is linked to the substantial value options we have across the midfield. Many of them covered off in this article. The other is that next week he comes about against the tagging nemesis Matt DeBoer in round 16 and also Mark O’Connor in round 23.
If the value is the name of the game and you’re keen on trading into a Demon, then Christian Petracca is the guy. In SuperCoach last year, he broke out with a 117. Currently, he’s priced 12 points per game off this based on the current season. However, in his past five, he’s averaging 109 and scoring variation between 96-130. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s a great financial option too. At his start of the season, a glance highlights his scoring potential, whereby in round six this year, he was averaging 115.8. He’s slowed since then, but it highlights his capacity.
With no Brodie Grundy for the past three games, chances are you already have Max Gawn. If not, you’re probably not in contention in either your leagues or overall rankings. That said, In my view, Gawn is clearly the top ruck for the rest of 2021 and is someone you’ll want to have.
Christian Salem isn’t a value pick. He’s not a ceiling pick. But it is a unique pick that’s on the safer side. He’s not for me, given the value we have and the ceiling guys we have. But he’s solid if you keen.
The Tigers have a brilliant fixture run home for non Dustin Martin that might be enough of a reason to sway you to bring him into your side finally. Beyond his opening two rounds, he hasn’t hurt those who opted against him. Personally, given his high ownership, I’d encourage you to continue to go against him and look to another option, potentially even a teammate of his.
Heading into the final nine rounds of the season, coaches want to trade into premiums that can be a top-tier option. Bachar Houli has a proven history of going on hot runs of 110+. His upcoming opposition is as friendly as any other defender, so the only cause for concern is his poor durability over recent years. But on scoring potential, he’s as good as any.
If the injury history of Houli concerns you, then his teammate Jayden Short is certainly a comparable option. A seasonal average of 96 in SuperCoach & 92 in DreamTeam/Fantasy have him ranked in the upper tiers of defensive premiums.
The Tiger I personally like the most is Shai Bolton. He’s damaging through the midfield and inside forward 50. He’s still relatively unique, considering his multiple week injury layoff just over a month ago. In SuperCoach, he’s priced at an average of 97 but is averaging 109 in his past five. In fact, since round four, his lowest score is 96. Not bad for a player under $525k.
In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s performing equally as strong in our forward line. Since round four, he’s scored 4 tons (including 122) and has a low of 85. Not a bad run of 8 games, if you ask me. Shai offers four key ingredients that should be appealing to prospective owners. Scoring ceiling, low variable deviation, relatively low ownership and still some value for money. If he’s not on your watchlist, at the very least, your playing the game wrong.
Quite simply, Jack Steele is worth every cent. He’s a VC/C option every single week!
Brad Crouch is more of an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam selection and still offers some value. Two seasons ago at the Crows, he showed his ability to be a season, long 110 performer. In his last five games, he’s averaging 110, and in his previous three, he’s going at 123. He’s one of a handful of Saints that have been relevant fantasy prospects for us this year. Personally, as good an option as he is, I’d wait a week and grab Neale.
It’s starting to get late in the season for Rowan Marshall to be an option for you. Sadly injuries have damaged his season for fantasy coaches and the Saints. Even if he does play this week, many coaches are only one or two forward spots away at max. With options like Patrick Dangerfield, Toby Greene and even Shai Bolton all within range of him, you can’t pick him. The best thing about him is his DPP, but with some rookie RUC/FWD options getting games, its value has taken a marginal dip.
The move of Callum Mills into the midfield has seen him become a topline defensive premium for the year. And given how good he’s performing, his ownership numbers are scarily low in some formats. For example, he’s coming off the back of eight consecutive SuperCoach tons, and he has dropped under 90 in just one game all season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.
He’ll give you a great points return, but the real question beneath this especially for DreamTeam and SuperCoach players is this. What’s the value of a trade? Based on the amount you have remaining and current ‘completion level’ of your side will ultimately have an impact on whether he’s worth paying up for.
Jake Lloyd has been good without being great. Which, if we are honest, is a reflection of how amazing he has been over the past few seasons. An average of 108 in SuperCoach & 98 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam is nothing to sneeze at. So if you can afford to trade him in, you’ll be rewarded. But personally, if you’ve got that far, you might as well go all the way and grab Mills.
I’m aware that the title of this article is ‘upgrade targets.’ But Joel Amarety’s important enough to sides to need to be discussed in this article. His value is twofold. Firstly, a downgrade to him should generate the cash you need to make another upgrade. Second, his RUC/FWD positional creates great flexibility, especially if you own Callum Coleman-Jones or target Rowan Marshall as a final forward spot upgrade.
Finding value to finish off our sides can be challenging, but West Coast champion Shannon Hurn is genuinely an option. Barring his injury affected round four clash against St Kilda (scored 6), he’s been delivering strong premium scores. Removing this early in game injury from his scoring, he’d be averaging 106 in SuperCoach and 100 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. To go with his dependable scoring, Hurn is incredibly unique. He’s in 2% or under of sides across the formats.
A picture of consistency over the past few seasons has been wingman Andrew Gaff. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s historically been a 105-110 midfielder and a 100-105 in SuperCoach. This year he’s currently averaging about 10-12 points per game beneath that.
The midfield of West Coast has been smashed with injuries, with all of Elliot Yeo, Tim Kelly and Luke Shuey all missing multiple games. With all either back or returning over the coming days, we should see Gaff recommence getting that silver service on the outside of the packs. With some luck, he could be the perfect ‘buy low’ candidate to complete your midfield.
While Gaff represents value, Elliot Yeo, for me, is the pick of the Eagles mids. Across the formats, he’s a proven historical performer of 105. Yeo has been building his fitness base after a long time out of the game. However, after match winning final quarter against Richmond, I’ve seen enough to suggest he’ll be able to get back somewhere near his best.
The byes are over! Back to full squads this week and time to find the diamond in the rough that will propel your side into your league’s finals. This week’s list includes a forgotten Sun whose scoring ceiling is through the roof plus a premiership winning Bulldog who has returned from a serious knee injury ahead of schedule.
A handy cash cow in the salary cap formats, Idun isn’t someone I’d be recommending strongly but considering there isn’t an abundance of unique defenders available this week and the fact that the Giants appear to have found their high possession swagger again, he’s worth a look.
In his 3rd season this year, Idun has only missed one game impressively locking down a spot in a strong backline. He is averaging 6 marks a game but needs to find more of the footy and I think this will start to happen as the Giants would be wise to get it into his hands. His run and carry complements players like Whitfield and Cumming very well, and with 10 marks on the weekend and a career best score of 84, he is starting to show what he is capable of.
Along with the likes of Will Brodie and Darcy MacPherson, I can’t work out how Fiorini can’t get into this floundering Gold Coast side. He has been finding plenty of the ball in the reserves but has been unable to break through in season 2021 until the weekend just gone when he was named as the medical sub. He came on early replacing the concussed Swallow and scored a solid 70 from 66% game time.
This is Fiorini’s 6th season and those with a good memory will remember when he debuted late in the 2016 season because in his second game, he scored a quite ludicrous 166! Since then, however, he hasn’t lived up to the billing and has found himself in and out of the team. The one season he played over 20 games was 2019 and he averaged 100.
With Swallow set to miss this week plus a hamstring injury to Lachie Weller, I expect to see Fiorini given a full game this week in what may be his last chance to prove he belongs at the level, at least with the Suns anyway. He is averaging 123 fantasy points from his 6 VFL games this year thanks to an average of 32 disposals, and is someone to strongly consider.
Toby McLean – Western Bulldogs % owned – 51% 2021 average – 81
Just 10 months after rupturing his ACL last season, Mclean amazingly returned to the Bulldogs AFL side last weekend coming in as a late inclusion for Stef Martin. He was a great inclusion too as he collected 21 touches and kicked a late goal that would have been the matchwinner if it weren’t for Gary Rohan’s after-the-siren heroics.
Mclean hasn’t been relevant in fantasy circles since his career best season in 2018 when he averaged 94.5 and just under 6 tackles a game playing a high forward role. The last couple seasons has seen his fantasy output decrease as he moved into a more defensive forward role.
Against Geelong in his comeback game, he attended 3 centre bounces whilst Lachie Hunter and Bailey Smith attended none playing off the wing and half forward. I think the three of those guys will rotate a fair bit giving Mclean some midfield time that should see his scoring improve and come closer to his 2018 season level.
Matthew Kennedy – Carlton % owned – 46% 2021 average – 58.7%
Kennedy’s average this season is deceptively low when you consider he has been the medical sub in 2 of the 3 games he has taken to the field. The former Giant has struggled with form and injury in his time at Carlton and this year has been no different as his first appearance without the sub was against his old side on the weekend. With young gun Sam Walsh copping a hard tag, Kennedy did his best to pick up the slack picking up 27 touches and taking 8 marks in an excellent performance, scoring 110.
He showed signs of being a consistent best 22 performer last season with a good run of 6 games in a row playing as an inside midfielder before his season was once again derailed by injury with a calf injury sidelining him. He returned for the final game of the season, impressing with 23 touches and 4 tackles.
At his best, Kennedy has shown an ability to hit the fantasy scoreboard and with a bit of luck on the injury front, will be a strong scorer for the remainder of the season. His DPP status as a MID/FWD makes him all the more appealing.
Buy low, sell high! It’s the age-old motto to succeed in Fantasy football of all formats. Every week we share with you the players with the lowest breakevens across AFLFantasy, SuperCoach & DreamTeam. Here are the players that offer the best breakevens heading into a new round.
The round we’ve all been planning for (well, some of us).
The round where plans were hip and shouldered when the fixture changed (thanks COVID).
The round where some Supercoach teams go to die.
I’m not sure how your team went but for most it was a challenge to even field 18. Although, with nine rounds to go there’s still plenty of points on offer and opportunities galore to move up those rankings and win those leagues.
On Friday I felt for all the coaches who had moved Mitch Duncan into their sides. I mean, I felt for Mitch as well, but he was a genuine POD option going into the round with less than 6% ownership. It’s a shame to see such an innocent act on the field result in an 8-12 week injury, add to that the drop of $70k in value. I hope you’ve got enough trades.
But Friday was also a test for those thinking of bringing in Patrick Dangerfield. He did enough to show us he still has the goods, and to think what his score may have been had he hit the target more accurately. With a 95 his price has now dropped to $515k and is expected to drop further still. Come the end of Round 15 he must be considered a forward trade-in, hopefully finalising your side for the season.
Other Geelong options worth considering are Joel Selwood and Tom Stewart. Stewart is in over 35% of teams and is well-regarded by many of us. Joel Selwood on the other-hand is only in 5% of teams and considering his form and the Cates run home might be worth an M8 position. As for the Bulldogs, as unlucky as they were, Bontempelli did the job for them and the rest followed along.
Port Adelaide trounched Gold Coast and there really isn’t anything good to say about the Suns. Even Liam Pickering struggled to find any form of superlative in his special comments on the game. It was a shame Robbie Gray had to be subbed out in his 250th, but Ollie Wines is still relevant (albeit on the expensive side) to anyone looking for another POD midfielder. Travis Boak is also one to consider, but wait a week or two and he’ll be under $500k.
Brisbane’s win over North was expected, but it was again interesting to see Jy Simpkin top score and now strung three hundreds together. A possible POD option at $524k perhaps? Jack Ziebell had his early season form return with a 134, and Aaron Hall lined up his seventh ton in a row.
But all eyes were on Lachie Neale, and didn’t he deliver! 156. This is the kind of scoring we know Neale for and he didn’t even reach his BE. For those on the lookout for a final midfielder then he pretty much sealed his own fate. Of course, it’s likely there will be plenty of people jumping on the Neale train in the next week or two but you can understand why with scores like this.
GWS’s win over Carlton was also expected. While Carlton came within striking distance during that final third quarter it was just a horrible performance. Lachie Whitfield (126) showed why he’s a powerhouse and threat to any team that doesn’t have him in their side. If you haven’t got him already then now is the time. Nick Haynes (96) again did well and is rewarding those who have jumped on him early post-bye. And Toby Greene (125) too was another value add prior to the round starting and rewarded those coaches who went with him. At the final whistle there were eight tons for GWS and nothing particularly helpful from the Blues.
In the final match of the round Bombers had a solid win over the Hawks. Huge congratulations to those 1% of coaches who had Jake Stringer and his 180, although he isn’t long-term relevant from here on in. And those other familiar names this year for the Dons all posted some good consistent scores; Nick Hind, Darcy Parish, Dyson Heppell, and Jordan Ridley. For the Hawks, Tom Mitchell had a solid 114 and perhaps those wanting to risk it all could be inclined to look favourably upon Jaeger O’Meara’s top score of 124. What is more relevant is perhaps Jarman Impey’s 109, who has now brought his BE down to a more acceptable level and doesn’t have to be traded out so quickly this week. And Jai Newcombe, while at the bottom of the list for points scored this week will most likely keep his spot and enable some cash generation in the next week or two.
For those of you who have managed to walk well through this bye period, well done. For those of you who have suffered through some low scores and league losses then it’s time to move that chin up and carry on the fight for another nine rounds.
Two weeks of the multi bye rounds are over. We now have an additional four teams with no more scheduled rests for the remainder of the season. So here’s a club by club breakdown of potential upgrade targets who have just had their bye round.
A one game suspension for Dayne Zorko rules himself out of a trade target this week. It’s a frustrating loss for current owners who cop an extra 0 in round 14. But for coaches wanting to trade into one of the best forwards of the season, you’ll need to wait another week. In SuperCoach, he’s averaging 108.7 across the season, including a rolling monster three game average of 133. While for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s going at 103.8 for the season and since round 5 has only had one score below 100. It’s not a ‘buy low’ option, but on the current trend, he’s been the most reliable, durable and consistent premium forward of 2021.
On the topic of ‘paying for what you get’ Jarryd Lyons has been one of the most reliable players of the season. In SuperCoach, he’s currently ranked inside the top 10 players in the format with an average of 119, made of 11 tons from his 12 games this year. Similarly, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s dominating with an average of 111.7 and just one score below 95 all season. To go with his high scoring floor is a newly discovered ceiling that makes him a genuine captaincy options in most games.
When the discussion around premium defenders comes up the following names come up frequently and rightfully so. Rory Laird, Tom Stewart, Jake Lloyd, Callum Mills etc. However. Daniel Rich, deserves to be discussed in this category too. For SuperCoach, He’s ranked 6th for total points and by averages amongst all defenders. His average of 104.6 and just one score under 89 all year makes him an attractive premium prospect. What should increase ‘buy’ stocks on him even more so his ownership in just 5% of teams is criminally low for the season he’s delivered.
Across in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s ranked 6th for total points (1,189) and 7th for averages (99.1). Just like in SC, his scoring basement (80) is high, while he does offer a ceiling (131) which is something he’s struggled to deliver at times in this format. Like his teammate Jarryd Lyons, he’s unique and he’s top tier low scoring variance option.
We can’t speak about the Brisbane Lions and not discuss the reigning Brownlow Medalist Lachie Neale. He started the season as the most expensive midfielder, but after suffering from a preseason back injury it limited his early season form. However, he started to get back to his best in 5 against Essendon. In that match he scored 145 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 157 in SuperCoach. However, the very next week he suffered an ankle injury that saw him miss the next 6 weeks.
In his come back match against Essendon before the bye he had 26 possession, 14 of them contested and going at 80% efficiency. Importantly he won 9 clearances and had 3 score involvements. At his price this isn’t the perfect week to get him. His breakeven while attainable given his lofty history, is still a week or so away from basement price.
Then add a matchup with Mark O’Connor the following week who towled him up earlier in the season in round two you might be tempted to wait one further week. However, if you look at the Brisbane fixture after round 15, it opens up like crazy for last years Preliminary finalists. They play Adelaide, St Kilda, Richmond, Hawthorn and Gold Coast. You couldn’t ask for a better run, and no ‘tagger’ among them.
In SuperCoach heading into round 16, he’s projected to be priced about $530,000 while in AFLFantasy it’ll be $700,000 and similar in DreamTeam. At those price point if you need a M8 he’ll be very difficult to ignore given that fixture and his history.
Four weeks ago wSA the perfect ‘buy low’ on Patrick Cripps. In that time he posted 3 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam 100’s and posted a season high 133 in SuperCoach just two games ago against the Swans. A combination of managing injuries and him being used more forward than I like is seeing ‘Crippa’ not deliver the consistency of scoring he has in the past. For me, he’s still a solid option. But I’d only go there if cash generation and trades is a major problem and you need to start taking ‘the best available in a range.’
I don’t really want to write up about Nic Newman, but I feel an obligation to do so somewhere inside of me. He’s got a fantasy pedigree and is someone I wouldn’t be shocked to average 90 over the final 10 weeks of the season. However, for me, I see some better value options at a comparable or cheaper price. Plus, I don’t see him averaging enough to be a top 10 defender over the final 10 weeks. Pass for me, but others might see it differently.
The one to target for me from the Blues is Zac Williams. History tells us that he’s an elite rebounding defender, and when given the opportunity, he can be a 90 defender if not greater. Over the past 3 weeks, Carlton have seemingly abandoned the ‘he’s a midfielder’ plan, and since moving back, he’s started to play well and deliver the fantasy scoring. In his last three games, he’s averaging 102 in SuperCoach, while in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s scored two games between 90-99.
Nic Newman and Zac Williams’s additions into the defensive unit have meant that Sam Docherty’s scoring has taken a hit. Why? Because he’s been moved out of his preferred halfback role and asked to play more across the wing. He’s been excellent over the totality of the season, but as long as he’s not the prime mover for the Blues, I wouldn’t be trading into him.
Carlton has replaced their midfield reliance on Patrick Cripps for an overreliance on Sam Walsh. At the start of the season, he was one of the easiest starting squad plays. His current average of 110 in SuperCoach and 108 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam shows that owners have been justified with the selection. If you’re looking to bring him in, it’s not a ‘cheap pick’, it’s not a ‘unique pick’, nor is he in reality yet a ‘captaincy pick.’ But as an owner across the formats, owning him is a fun pick!
The recently re-signed ‘bomber for life’ Zach Merrett is enjoying another consistent year. He’s yet again averaging 110 across the formats, and barring one exception against North Melbourne, has been a picture of consistency. One thing you want when trading into a premium is to time it with a favourable matchup. That way, you get the immediate scoring bump into your lineup.
This happens for Merrett owners this week, coming up against Hawthorn side that lacks midfield Power and giving up plenty of fantasy points to opposition players.
Fantasy Footy 101 is what? Buy Low, Sell High! Darcy Parish has been sensational since his move into the midfield. Yes, he’s a captaincy option, and yes, he’s unique. But for it to be worth the investment, he needs to go 135 over the rest of the seasons 10 games. Can he? Possibly, will he? I don’t think so! Well done if you own him, but until that price bottoms out a little, it’s a pass from me.
On current form, Kyle Langford is one of the form forwards of the competition. The bombers midfield injury crisis has also aided his scoring boost, averaging over 110 across all formats of the game in the past three games. This midfield role should continue for the next few weeks, which means the scoring trend will follow suit. My only word of caution is to keep an eye on the returning Dylan Shiel in 2-3 weeks and what impact his role may have.
One of the best starting squad options in 2021 has been Nick Hind. The former Saint has been outstanding as the club’s replacement for Adam Saad. While he hasn’t popped too many high ceiling games yet, he’s offered incredible consistent scoring. If your forward line is looking for a bankable 90 from now till seasons end, Hind is your guy.
After a strong opening month where he averaged 133 in SuperCoach and 108 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, Jordan Ridley slowed a little late. He might scare many of on current form, but he has a history of being a top tier defender. Part of the problem has been the sharing of kick out duties that he held a monopoly on during that opening month. He’s a great buy low option, especially if he can get back some of that kick in ownership.
If your ranking has you near the top of the tree, then chances are you’ve own Jackson Macrae for large portions of the season. He’s the only player across all formats of the game that’s scored 100 or more in every match. He’ll cost you a large chunk of coin, but his current owners will testify that he’s worth every cent. If you don’t own him, you need to wait and hope he drops a stinker. If you have non-owners remorse, it’s because players like Macrae you want for all the season, not just portions of it. Learn from it!
Is he a must have? Honestly, no. Why? Two reasons, if you’re trying to make up ground on the current leaders, he won’t be unique to help you do that. Second, as good as he’s been this year (and he’s been spectacular) across the formats, we have cheaper options that are scoring within a handful of points of him, such as Touk Miller.
I won’t talk anyone out of owning him. He’s a jet and is clearly a VC/C option every week! The only thing I would say is this, can you invest the money in other options that in totality improve your side overall?
You can’t talk about the Bulldogs and not highlight their skipper in Marcus Bontempelli. He’s having a career best season so far. His current SuperCoach average of 126 is 10 points clear on anything he’s down ever in his career. Similarly, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, it’s the first time he’s averaged over 110.
Bont has gone on hot runs like this before and averaging similar numbers. What prospective buyers will need from this investment is a return that is comparable or greater than his current average. If he doesn’t, then paying ‘overs’ can cripple your rush to end the season. Since round 4 in SuperCoach, he’s hit the ton in every match, including 7 games north of 125. While AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s on a run of eight consecutive 100’s.
Lachie Hunter has a history of averaging 100 across the formats, but if there was a version of the game you want him more than others in 2021, it’s AFLFantasy. Simply because he gained MID/FWD DPP just a few weeks back.
He is averaging 112.7 in his past three games in SuperCoach and is coming off the back of four consecutive tons. While grabbing him ‘on the cheap’ is certainly tempting,he’s not the only value option in that range. For around $50k cheaper, coaches might be more tempted in the value of Patrick Cripps. Kangaroo Jy Simpkin has had 3 tons in his last 4 games, including a monster 164 and last weekends 128. Hunter is good, but will he offer the ceiling and value of these other options?
A seasonal average of 86 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam is certainly unders what he’s done historically. Still, the major reason for a slow start to the season was him being squeezed off the wing and onto a half forward line. With injuries to Josh Dunkley and Adam Treloar, Lachie has moved back to his preferred wing role and has since averaged 98 in his past three games. In AFLFantasy, he’s an easy buy this week, and at $642k, it won’t take a rocket scientist to see him as a target this week.
Bailey Dale has been the surprise packet of the year. Nobody called this performance coming from him. An average of 97 in SuperCoach for the season and 105 in the last five. While for the year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s running at 86, with that increasing to 93 in his last five games. Dale has been one of the most consistent performing forward options available. If you believe his recent trend continues, then a combination of that plus his low ownership might make him the perfect unique pick for the run home.
Lastly, Caleb Daniel might not be the most attractive pick, but over the course of the past 2 & 1/2 seasons, he’s a proven 90 defender in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 100 in SuperCoach. It’s a safe play and certainly something I could get behind if a coach wanted him in.
This is a very tough week for unique free agents as we have 8 teams on the bye in what is, thankfully, the final week of byes. This week’s list is made up of players that could be one-week wonders in your side, stepping in to cover for one of your premium players missing. They either have a favourable match up or are in a fleetingly rich vein of form but are likely to be kicked back to the bench or free agent scrap heap next week. And if they end up being keepers, then that’s a bonus but I wouldn’t count on it. Enjoy, and good luck!
Trent McKenzie – Port Adelaide % owned – 57% 2021 average – 76
The addition of Aliir Aliir and a fit and healthy Ryan Burton into Port Adelaide’s back 6 meant that despite playing all but 2 games last season, McKenzie was on the outer for the first half of 2021. He did get his chance in round 10 and has made the most of it playing every week since.
In those 3 games, McKenzie has averaged 7 marks a game and has opted to kick instead of handball at a very fantasy friendly rate. Of his 51 disposals, 46 have been kicks! This stat has been helped by the fact that McKenzie has taken the most kick ins for Port in his 3 games and like a true fantasy player, has played on 100% of the time.
Finally, this week he comes up against his old side, Gold Coast, who are down on confidence and last week against Fremantle, allowed the likes of Luke Ryan, James Aish and Darcy Tucker to take 30 marks between them, all on the way to solid fantasy tons.
Jai Newcombe – Hawthorn % owned – 59% 2021 average – 87
What a whirlwind few weeks it has been for 20 year old Newcombe. He went from being one of VFL side Box Hill’s best players, to joining an AFL list, to debuting on a Friday night and setting a record for most tackles by a debutant in AFL history laying a whopping 14. His disposal tally was much more modest at 13 but the fact that he attended 16/25 centre bounces shows Hawthorn are not afraid to throw the kid in the deep end.
Teammate Worpel attended 1 more centre bounce than Newcombe but will miss this week’s clash against Essendon through suspension meaning the new Hawk will have every chance to build on his impressive debut.
What a time to put in a career best performance (and 2nd highest fantasy career score) for Hawthorn’s perennial back up ruckman. Watching youngster Ned Reeves take his spot and play very well in it must have lit a fire in Ceglar and he is a perfect candidate for a one week spot in your side if you own one of the many ruckmen on the bye this week.
Reeves was a late out on Friday night paving the way for Ceglar to come in and surprisingly dominate against one of the competitions hardest ruckman to play on, Tom Hickey. He recorded the most hit outs on the ground with 35 whilst collecting 20 disposals and kicking a goal in what was a complete performance. It is just the third time in his career that he has recorded 20+ disposals in a game.
Reeves appears to have recovered from him ankle problem but it is hard to see him pushing the veteran back out this week at least. They are up against Essendon this week who in their last two outings have allowed ruckmen to score well. Before the bye, Chol hit a 97 against them in the Dreamtime game, and the week before that, Naitanui posted a handsome 117.
Steven Motlop – Port Adelaide % owned – 62% 2021 average – 67.3%
At his best, Motlop is an excitement machine that loves finding the footy but unfortunately for Port fans (Geelong ones too), his worst is the complete opposite of that. It is this hot and cold fluctuation that makes it hard to pick Motlop in any fantasy format but it does make him a great candidate for a one week gig in your squad as he comes up against the struggling Suns this week.
Port have won 5 games by over 30 points this year and across those games, Motlop has averaged 84. In the remaining 7 games which have been a mix of wins by less than 30 and losses, he has averaged 55.
Now, does this mean Motlop only plays well when Port Adelaide beat up on sides, or does it mean Port Adelaide only play well when Motlop is up and about? I’ll let smarter minds than mine work that out, but what I do know is, if you think Port will beat Gold Coast by more than 5 goals this week, get Motlop in!
What a fascinating round of football we had this weekend. Some winners, some losers, and some just straddling the fence unsure about it all. Of course, the big winner was Neale Daniher and his team raising much needed funds for motor-neurone disease. What a great cause and such an inspiration to see. Puts the weekly ups and downs of being a fantasy sports coach in perspective, don’t you think?
On the field, however, there were some great games of football with plenty of close and competitive matches. There’s certainly a bit to reflect on so let’s just do that.
Geelong. Hawthorn. Fremantle. Adelaide. West Coast. Collingwood. All winners who grab the four points, but what about us supercoaches?
Ollie Wines has had a great run the last few weeks now and again he showed his value. He is owned by only 4% of coaches so makes a terrific POD option. You may have missed his 144 this week but he has a good ceiling and a pretty smooth run home. If he’s fit and firing then he’s worth the $570k.
Jai Newcombe showed why Hawthorn picked him up in the mid-season draft. A 75 on debut was helpful for many, plus the added bonus of being a tasty $103k to bring in an elite premium. It looks like his role will help Tom Mitchell gain the points his owners so desperately want as well so there’s plenty to like about Newcombe.
Sean Darcy is probably not the R2 you’re looking at right now unless Brodie Grundy is out for longer than expected. But he put another great game together with a 140. Those 3000 coaches who have him will be very appreciative of his efforts.
Josh Kelly, well, hello there. Finally his owners saw him reach the potential we know he has with a 147. His game was top-shelf and with the run that he’s got for the rest of the season he continues to be an appealing option to bring in at $577k. It should also be noted that Nick Haynes had his first game for a while and was back with a 118. For those looking for some risk and reward he’s still only $335k with plenty of potential. A sure winner this week.
Other winners this week were Scott Pendlebury, who bought back form from his 2013-2016 years with the top score of the round (167). Dougal Howard (160) had one out of the box despite what went on there with the Saints, and Aaron Hall (141) continued his great run of form. And we can’t end the winners section without mentioning Riley Thrillthorpe and the points collected with his winning goal in the final moments of the game.
Port Adelaide. Sydney. Gold Coast. St Kilda. Richmond. Melbourne. There were a couple of upsets this weekend so some surprising losers, particularly Sydney, St Kilda (given the 360-0 head start Adelaide gave them), and Melbourne. And for us coaches it also meant a couple for our teams too.
Ned Reeves hasn’t played a game yet and he has 22% ownership. He was the easy downgrade choice from Matt Flynn or other R3, particularly after he’d been named on Thursday night. But, alas! He was a late out and we didn’t get to see him. To make matters worse, Jonathan Ceglar had a good game and could keep him out. This will be causing some of us issues this coming weekend.
Isaac Heeney and Jordan Impey underperformed this week. It seems the time has come to t move on Heeney inparticular, and for those who have the space or trades to move on Impey it might be worth the upgrade. Thankfully Heeney can wait a week given his bye round this weekend, but one to ponder in the coming days.
For those who jumped on Jordan De Goey a few weeks back would’ve been pleased to see him playing sollid midfield minutes. However, given that he may be rubbed out it could also be time for him to go as well.
Mitch Duncan has now had two games of lower than expected performances. Another mid-70 doesn’t really cut it and is now an interesting one for the 12% of coaches who have him. The same could be said for Steele Sidebottom. He put in his second-lowest score for the season and raises the question of whether coaches should add him to their forward line in coming weeks.
The In-Betweeners
North Melbourne and GWS. Yep, a draw sort of says it all doesn’t it. No definitive winner, no definitive loser, but sitting in that place in-between.
Lachie Whitfield was much talked about coming off his bye, and he performed OK without knocking the socks off anyone. Those coaches who bought him in will need to continue to trust him as works his way back to the form we like to see. He still offers great reward at $504k but it could go either way.
James Jordon would’ve been an easy offload this week, and in reality he can still be, but his 99 this past weekend means there is still money to be made on him. It raises the question of whether to hold or not. When he’s scoring better than Petracca the mind does wander into unchartered territory, should I hold him? Could he be a keeper at M8? Is there an elite premium I can reach this week or next because of him?
The same goes for those who have Tommy Highmore in their team. Wowee, what a ride coaches with him have had. And yep, I’m one of them. The win this week was his amazing 111, which tends to happen when players are in the position they’re build for. But, he could now be a helpful D7. You see, I’m second-guessing myself now again. What to do.
With this being the final round of byes it may well be an ugly round of scores, which I know many coaches are trying to come to terms with. Alternatively, it could be an opportunity to jump spots and win those league games. Whatever the case may be for you, I hope you ride the ups and downs in style (and with perspective).
Toward the middle to end of the week the cherry on top of what has been a horrendous season for those of us in Melbourne was an amazing storm that went through the suburbs. A number of people have been impacted, many still without power, including a few of the Coaches Panel team. But perhaps for those of us who have been following the ups and downs of Tommy Highmore the cherry on top of our bye-round strategy was to see him playing in his right position and knocking up a ton. Wowee. I know a number of coaches traded him out to bring in Lachie Whitfield, but it ends up he comes in a scores even better than a few of our defensive lines. The irony.
But the weekend of Supercoach joy began as Geelong and Port Adelaide got started. Dangerfield was back, albeit not performing at his best yet. Perhaps a good get in a few weeks once his BE has dropped a bit. Ollie Wines was terrific again, and is someone I’m certainly looking to bring in for the remainder of the season. Travis Boak too tonned up and continues his good season. We’re well aware of what he can do and has a good run home as well. Jeremy Cameron, Gary Rohan, Robbie Gray, and Dan Houston are also possible options for us.
In the surprise of the weekend Hawthorn got up over Sydney, who just didn’t look like they could be bothered trying. Tom Mitchell showed up though and got a score of 135 for his coaches. He has had a rollercoaster of a season but is in the mix for our midfield options. He’s probably not a POD option though with 20% of coaches owning him already.
We also can’t go past Jai Newcombne this week. Straight into the side and in a great role for him. A 75 for a debut game is an excellent score, so he’ll be a shoe-in for many coaches to help upgrade our midfields.
Reeves, who many had drafted in was a late out. Oh boy.
Those who didn’t have great games in this one were Isaac Heeney and Jarman impey. In forward lines already diminished it raises the question of whether we stick with one or either of them. They now have decent BE’s and have been on the lower end of scores in the last few weeks. This week provides an option to make use of the chas generation and jump elsewhere, like a Dangerfield.
Sean Darcy is having a ripper and again had one against Gold Coast this week. He’s now the fourth best ruck in the competition. Perhaps not too relevant now but if Grundy continues to be out some decisions will need to be made. Luke Ryan too continues his great form as is another to consider for locking up your defensive line.
Touk Miller again helps his coaches and has been an excellent choice for those who jumped on him weeks ago. Hugh Greenwood also toned up alongside David Swallow.
Perhaps in the game of the round was the comeback by Adelaide over St Kilda. It looked like the Saints had this in the bag but then the final death nail was the goal kicked by in the final few minutes. was looking like a brilliant VC option with over 80 at half time but then didn’t do anything after that. I’ve already mentioned Highmore, but Brad Crouch has also put together some great numbers since round 7 too.
For Adelaide Rory Laird has been excellent. Thilthorpe gets those coaches those wining goal points. And it’s worth watching Rory Sloane in coming weeks too.
After rounds 3, 6, 9 & 12 the drafting format of Ultimate Footy awards additional player positions to players that have had a role change in season. As always players are required to have played a minimum of 3 games to be eligible and to be playing the new position as their primary role in the side.
Nine players have gained an additional position. Two players have gained back status, six gaining centre, no new rucks and one player have picked up forward status. Let’s look at who they are and their relevance to your draft sides and leagues.
It’s not a high relevant gain, given his top score is 54 for the year. However, it looks as though Chayce might have just found his home at the AFL level. The former first round pick has struggled at times to get his hands on the ball at the top level in the past 18 months.
Jones has since shown glimpses of his elite running, creative ball use and defensive endeavour across half back in the previous month. He might be worth a pick up in a deep keeper league at best.
Zach Tuohy | ADD BACK
Over the previous 12 months, we’ve seen the Irishman get used higher up the ground. However, over the past 6 weeks, Zac Tuohy has moved back to his more historic role across half-back, including taking a share of kick ins. In his last four matches, he’s scored 85, 96, 85 & 109. He should become back eligible. It’s a huge gain for the 84% of coaches that own him and clearly the most relevant gaining of this batch of DPP’s.
In 2021 he’s averaging 51. That’s not an option to roster as a back let alone as a centre. Look elsewhere!
Harry Schoenberg | ADD CENTRE
The Crows will be happy with the development of Harry, as his time through the midfield is gradually increasing across the season as . Like all players who gain centre, it’s rarely helpful in boosting on-field scoring. However, it could be helpful in your league if you play through the bye rounds.
James Harmes | ADD CENTRE
Normally the addition of centre status is the least helpful for coaches. It rarely adds to any increase of on-field scoring but rather adds some squad versatility. While this is true for James Harmes, the timing is also helpful for coaches who play through the coming bye rounds. This DPP might help you with field scores if scampering for every available options this week.
Kayne Turner | ADD CENTRE
The addition of centre status is a valid call from UF, with the Kangaroos asking Kayne Turner to play a tagging role. However, with only one score over 40 in the past four, he’s not someone you should consider.
David Zaharakis | ADD CENTRE
The addition of DPP does nothing for the relevance of David Zaharakis. Further to that, last weekend, he injured his hamstring and will miss the next few weeks. Pass!
Will Hoskin-Elliott | ADD CENTRE
I feel like a broken record, but as helpful as the hyphen has been in our forward line lately, he’ll give you nothing more than some squad flexibility. In the last month, he’s done well with three scores above 85, including a 113. At best, he’ll give you another body to play on the field this week if you play through the bye.
As part of Luke Beveridge’s annual ‘wheel of positions’, the 2016 Norm Smith Medalist Jason Johannisen has been deployed inside the bulldogs forward 50. Beyond a game a few weeks back against the Saints in round 10, he’s shown little to suggest that this role change is scoring friendly.
Johannisen has just two scores above 60 all season, you really should be looking elsewhere. With an average draft position of 136, it’s been one of the most disappointing draft day returns for owners.
0
0
