Year: 2022

Trade Review | Dan McStay
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Read Time:2 Minute, 30 Second


Career High SuperCoach Score: 125 Vs Gold Coast (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 111 Vs Richmond (2022)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 75.7 (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 65.3 (2021)

Impact on new club

The recruitment of Dan McStay is a fascinating addition to the Collingwood forward line. Dan’s a versatile tall who can impact the game through what he does as a tall marking forward and the option that creates space for his team’s medium and small forwards.

You could argue that Brisbane and Collingwood’s small to medium forwards are comparable. But the key position posts are not. So while we should still see the likes of Jamie Elliott thrive, the lack of dominant talls might become more noticeable and highlight the work of McStay on the side. That could be for better or for worse. As good as Brody Mihocek has been, he’s not Hipwood or Daniher.

It will be interesting to watch over the preseason Collingwood structure up this forward line in 2023. Do they continue to play Mason Cox off the bench? Or will Dan become the relief ruckman/second tall forward? If he moves into the second tall forward and relief ruck role, we might see a more versatile and potent Collingwood forward line. However, we also might see less scoreboard impact as McStay becomes the number two target and gets better opposition defenders marking him. Nevertheless, I think he’s a nice addition to the Collingwood Football Club structural perspective.

Impact on the old club

The role that Dan McStay had been playing for the club was as a third tall forward. His job was to be a competing tall forward but to create important space and separation. He was sometimes required to pinch-hit for moments in the ruck, especially in the later rounds of the year.

McStay allowed others like Charlie Cameron, Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Zac Bailey to get dangerous at his best.

His departure in isolation could’ve created a need to restructure the lineup; however, with the impending arrival of Jack Gunston later in the trade period, the Lions will have arguably upgraded in this space.

Fantasy Summary

There were a handful of games in 2022 where Dan McStay scored 90+. The most recognisable was in the elimination final against Richmond, where he was forced to play predominantly as a ruckman. This game aside, he still had multiple matches where he scored 90+. But with every score that looks promising, an equally low score in the 40s or 50s would be present. That’s why instead of regularly averaging in the mid ’70s, he’s closer to a low 60s.

Even under a new system and structure, McStay isn’t someone you should consider in salary cap formats at Collingwood, even if he starts to pick up the secondary ruck role. In drafts, he’ll only become a target to consider IF you are in either a deep league or if certain customizations have been activated. Beyond that, he’s a pass there too.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Trade Review | Tim Taranto
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Read Time:4 Minute, 0 Second


Career High SuperCoach Score: 144 Vs Carlton (2019)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 156 Vs North Melbourne (2019)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 102.3 (2019)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 112.5 (2019)

Impact on new club

If your a Richmond fan, the trading for Tim Taranto is excellent news. Not just because he’s a high calibre player, but because it means the club should buck the trend of embracing a full rebuild after a successful premiership era.

Taranto’s arrival is significant because it stalls any talk of rebuilding. Still, it also adds some significant strength that all too often depended on Dion Prestia’s health. Last year, Jayden Short and Shai Bolton were the clubs third and fourth most used players at centre bounces.

With Taranto now a staple alongside Prestia (and Hopper a likely addition), it will allow Richmond to use Short back as the rebounding defender. And, should they wish, Bolton can be used more as an explosive dynamic.

One of the appeals for Tim heading to Richmond wasn’t just for being at a ‘big Victorian club competing for finals,’ but rather the certainty that he’d be a first choice midfielder weekly. Even with his obvious presence as a forward, I can’t foresee the Tigers using him there beyond a rotational ‘resting.’ With a forward line that includes Tom Lynch, Jack Riewoldt, Noah Cumberland, Shai Bolton, Dustin Martin and Maurice Rioli, there is little to no need for him to be there regularly.

Impact on the old club

One of the biggest knocks on the Giants for years has been the abundance of midfielders and the inability play them all in their preferred positions. The departure of Tim Taranto and likely Jacob Hopper will ease some of the pressure to get strong balance into the midfield unit.

Immediately it should see Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio and Tom Green be the staple ‘big three’ of the midfield. The new coaching regime can then look at sprinkling in the likes of Harry Perryman, Lachie Whitfield, Callan Ward and even Toby Greene should they wish. Or give future early picks a go like Connor Stone and Finn Callaghan.

The Giants also hold four picks inside the top 20, including the high coveted pick three. The club could easily target a high end midfielder with some of these selections.

Regarding the new coaching regime, Adam Kingsley has already indicated that his philosophy is similar to that of how Richmond and more recently Collingwood have played. We should see a much more attacking and potentially lower volume of possession per goal ratio for the Giants under his leadership.

Fantasy Summary

This could be one of the most relevant player moves of the period for fantasy football coaches. Over multiple seasons at the Giants, the scoring pedigree of Tim Taranto has been on full display. When he’s been allowed to play heavily as a centre bounce midfielder, he’s shown over numerous years he can score.

He first emerged as a genuine premium when as a MID/FWD in his second season, he averaged 90 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 88 in SuperCoach. The following season in 2019, he emerged as a genuine premium when her averaged 112.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102 in SuperCoach.

During this 2019 season, he scored fifteen AFLFantasy tons, seven of which over 130 highlighted his ability to deliver a scoring ceiling. That same season in SuperCoach, he registered a ton in thirteen matches.

He backed these scores up in 2021 when he averaged 108 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 97 in Superoach. Even last year, he averaged 111 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 106 in SuperCoach before being impacted by some role variations.

It’s quite simple if Taranto is allowed to be a centre bounce midfielder, he’s someone that should be on our radars. He still presents some value even in the Richmond, largely fantasy football purgatory system. Why? Because Tim is a strongly rounded midfielder. Not only is he a high volume accumulator, but he’s also a powerful tackler and a damaging forward of the ball in front of goals. His disposal efficiency is an area where he can be criticised, but in the Tigers system, where a ‘surge’ mentality of moving the ball forward is the focus, he should only succeed.

He’ll enter the season priced at 96 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam; that’s still 10-15 points per game of value potentially embedded in. While in SuperCoach, he’s priced at 84. Again, 10-15 points per game unders what he should be able to deliver.

If he retains his MID/FWD status, he’ll be one of fantasy football’s most highly owned players next year. However, even as a midfielder only in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he still is someone to consider strongly.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Trade Review | Ian ‘Bobby’ Hill
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Read Time:1 Minute, 40 Second


Career High SuperCoach Score: 59.4 (2020)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 50.2 (2019)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 106 Vs Carlton (2020)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 79 Vs West Coast (2021)

Impact on new club

One of the fascinating forward structures in the AFL is how the Collingwood Football Club has and looks likely to continue to structure up. It’s clear that Jamie Elliott is the match winner; they’ve got some handy small targets around him in McCreery, Ginnivan and Mihocheck.

The Magpies don’t lack small forward options, but Ian ‘Bobby’ Hill adds some high end pace, clear skills, and he generally makes excellent decisions with the ball in hand. He’ll be an excellent addition to the Magpies forward structure.

It wouldn’t surprise me if, over time, the club gave him some opportunities for a few midfield minutes. However, his turn of speed and ability to manoeuvre out of challenging situations might be worth giving him a centre bounce in each quarter too.

Impact on the old club

His departure has opened the door for the club to target and successfully get Toby Bedford of Melbourne to commit to the club at the time of writing. Over the coming days, Melbourne and GWS will negotiate a trade.

Should Bedford arrive, then the departure of Bobby will barely be noticed.

Fantasy Summary

Rarely do players who spend most of their time inside the forward 50 become relevant fantasy football prospects. Of course, there are always exceptions, historically players like Steve Johnson or Nick Riewoldt. But for the most part, they aren’t relevant options in the salary cap formats of the game.

Over his four seasons in the AFL system, he’s yet to have a season where he’s averaged over 60. So it’ll take something significant to change at Collingwood for him to be someone to consider even late in drafts.

A safe ‘pass’ unless we see a significant spike in midfield minutes during the preseason.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Trade Review | Karl Amon
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Read Time:3 Minute, 11 Second

Career High SuperCoach Score: 152 Vs GWS Giants (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 148 Vs Hawthorn (2022)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 93.4 (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 98.6 (2021)

Impact on new club

We didn’t have to wait long for our first move of the AFL trade and free agency window, with Karl Amon moving on day one to the Hawthorn Football Club. Immediately, his arrival provides the Hawks with a healthy option across one of the wings. Last year, he averaged 24 disposals and five score involvements per game. His strengths are his running power and the ability to create space between the arcs.

The arrival of the 27 year old will likely not advance the Hawks immediate finals aspirations. Still, it does give them a strong wingman while the nucleus of Josh Ward, Jai Newcombe and Connor Macdonald develop as the core of the future midfield.

I don’t think it’s a bad addition, especially as his salary is the only ‘cost’ to the club. However, I wonder if the Hawks would’ve been better off investing the game time in a teenager that will be at the peak of his power in 4-5 seasons.

Impact on the old club

Over the past two seasons, Karl Amon has transitioned from helpful fringe wingmen into being clearly the Power’s best outside midfielder. His departure isn’t a disaster for the club as they have several candidates who can transition into this role.

At the 2021 draft, Josh Sinn was a player that Port invested heavily into land last year. His combination of elite speed and silky skills could make for a tasty inclusion onto the wings of Alberton. He’s yet to show much of his skills at the SANFL level, but as a junior, he has the skills worth allowing a crack at it.

Port Adelaide could also look to push Kane Farrell up from the half-back flank into the wings, while Miles Bergman, who’s already back into the best 22, looks to possess all the skills to be an elite wingman. With Xavier Duursma already holding down one wing, Port is blessed with several options that could take the spot opened up by Amon’s departure.

Of course, Port could head to the draft with pick #8 and could look to draft Oli Hollands, Cam Mackenzie or Jhye Clark all of whom could easily play across the wings.

Fantasy Summary

Over the past two seasons, Karl Amon has been a handy selection in draft formats with averages in the high 90s in AFLFantasy, and high 80s – low 90s in SuperCoach. Like any wingmen, they almost always score better in AFLFantasy. That’s due to the scoring weighting in SuperCoach being more favourable to contested and high efficiency. Neither of these does Amon excel.

At Port Adelaide, he showed his scoring ceiling with four scores over 120 in AFLFantasy, including a career high against his now club Hawthorn with a 148. However, pure wingmen do experience more scoring volatility than any other midfielder. That’s because they rely heavily upon the services of the inside midfielders. And as promising as the young Hawks midfield looks, it’s not yet to the level of the Power.

In salary cap formats, he’d need to push his scoring north of 10-15 points per game to return a value for money as a midfielder in our starting squads. Even if he stayed at Port Adelaide, I don’t see that happening, so it’s a pass from me.

It’d be in the drafting formats of the game that he’ll be regularly selected. I’d suspect he’s more likely to slide than hold his scoring, but I don’t see him falling drastically off the relevance radar.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Patreon Exclusive | 2021 Draft Class | Top 10 Keeper Ranks
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Read Time:9 Minute, 6 Second

After every season, we ask MJ to rank the top 10 players from the most recent AFL draft class for the keeper and dynasty leagues. Some players have 20+ games of exposure to AFL, while some have barely got games. The hope is that list will help you make some informed decisions with your fantasy football list management.

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#1 | Nick Daicos

Nobody should be surprised that Nick Daicos is the top selection from this draft crop. He was sublime this season, and a genuine case can be made that his debut season surpassed the greatness of even Sam Walsh. A seasonal average of 86 consisted of six tons, four over 110 and a career-high 147 against the Crows in round 18. His season was so dominant that not only did the eventual rising star winner start to cop multiple tags, but there was social media outrage when he didn’t even make the All-Australian squad of 44.

One day Daicos may move into the midfield full-time, but should that eventuate, it just means he’d move from being a 95-105 defender to a 105+ premium midfielder. You can’t lose!

The conversation shouldn’t be why Daicos is #1 on this list, but now a genuine conversation could be had for him to be drafted #1 overall in a brand new keeper league. If he’s not at one, he’s certainly a consideration.

#2 | Josh Ward

Much like Daicos at one, I don’t believe there should be much disagreement among the community with who I’ve placed second on this list. Josh Ward was always touted as a strong keeper prospect after putting up some stringer scores as a junior. However, over his final six weeks of the season, the pieces all started to fall into place for him. He posted two tons, including a monster 133 against the Eagles, to average an impressive 92.6 for a strong conclusion to the season.

Whenever a player has showcased at every junior level high fantasy pedigree and has delivered quality football and fantasy scoring in his debut year at the AFL level, it should build supreme confidence that coaches have got themselves a likely long term premium midfielder on their list.

#3 | Jason Horne-Francis

Before the season’s commencement, the popular perspective was that Jason Horne-Francis was the second best keeper prospect behind Nick Daicos. His slide into third, while hardly a slide, is more a credit to the trajectory of performance by Josh Ward rather than any negativity around Jason.

It wasn’t the season that JHF was hoping for. A combination of some niggling little injuries, form and just adjustments to the big time meant he didn’t live up to the ‘hype’ surrounding him. In his defence, Jason is more of an explosive contested midfielder. Here his speed and power come to the forefront. Even at the junior and SANFL, he was never a high volume possession winner, so to contrast him to Daicos or a Ward is unfair on him.

Despite some ups and downs, he had six games with 20+ possessions and five games scoring 70+. As both North and he improve, he should consistently evolve to be a 95+ scoring midfielder over the coming years. But in 2023, he should be MID/FWD eligible and might be enough to sneak on the field for you.

#4 | Josh Rachele

I believe the top three of this draft class are clear and supreme options. It then opens up incredibly. You could genuinely build a compelling case that

The comparisons of Josh Rachele that he’s a clone of Toby Greene aren’t that far of a stretch. The mercurial forward showcased his fantasy pedigree in round one, where he had fourteen possessions, kicked five goals and popped a ton on debut. He followed it up three weeks later with another triple-digit score with his current career high score of 101.

Since round four, he hasn’t posted a score over 60, but it’s evident that injuries have been a primary factor in returning to his early season performances. What Rachele offers keeper league coaches over his career is a degree of confidence. Josh is super dangerous inside forward 50, so no matter who joins the Crows (cough Rankine), I believe he maintains his forward status long-term. As a result, I’ve placed him up above other likely long-term midfielders that are harder to split.

#5 | Ben Hobbs

Much has been made about the Essendon Footy Club this season. One thing they did manage to get right is the recruitment of Ben Hobbs. Before getting drafted in the NAB league, he played six games and averaged 14 kicks, 11 handballs, three marks, five tackles, and 95 AFL Fantasy points. The comparisons to Taylor Adams and Joel Selwood consistently came through from all AFL recruiters.

It took him a month to crack into the Bombers side, but once he did, he established himself as a permanent fixture of the club. From his seventeen games, he showed in multiple games his developing fantasy pedigree. The highlight was in round eight, where he posted a 95. The slight uncertainty coaches might have is how he’ll fit in the short term into the Bombers midfield. A new coaching regime will only add further questions, but in the long term, he looks like he’s going to be a safe 90+ midfielder.

#6 | Connor Macdonald

Connor Macdonald is one of my favourites from this draft class. His strengths are his stoppage work, athleticism, and high end defensive pressure. As a junior, he spent his time as an inside midfielder, but at Hawthorn, they’ve spent his time more heavily developing him as a forward. As a result, he picked up MID/FWD status. Even with him receiving next to no inside midfielder minutes, we still saw multiple strong scoring glimpses. In round 18 against the Eagles, he scored 90 from just 13 disposals and two goals. While a fortnight later, he scored an 84 from 19 touches.

For Hawthorn’s rebuild to be a long term success, it’ll require Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara to phase out and allow Macdonald alongside Ward and Newcombe to thrive. To me, he looks like a pure fantasy prospect where he’s strong in and around the ground accumulator but still lacks some polish to attract any opposition midfield attention.

Chances are he’s a forward in 2023, but in the next two seasons, I forecast he’s got the potential to be one of the best midfielders in the game.

#7 | Jake Soligo

Just because you’re not an early draft pick doesn’t rule you out of being a high value keeper league prospect. Since returning to the Adelaide side mid-season, it’s evident that Jake Soligo is a genuinely good footballer. Playing predominantly on the wing, his class, toughness, speed, and elite decision-making are evident. And as the season went on, he built a stronger ‘inside’ midfield game.

The current fantasy knock on him is he’s yet to post a score north of 80, and while it’s a valid perspective, I think it could be a flawed concern. While the proof in scoring is important, sometimes we need to project in light of his role and opportunity. In his past thirteen games, he’s had nine that have ranged between 61-78. 

Internally the club believe they’ve found a clone to Rory Sloane, and if his career can mirror anything like that of his current captain, both the Crows and keeper league owners should be thrilled.

#8 | Marcus Windhager

I’ve got to admit; that I’m a big wrap for Marcius Windhager. He has some explosive midfield traits, possesses clean hands, and has a great turn of speed. At the AFL level, we largely saw him through the midfield, especially in tagging roles, but as a junior, he showcased that he can also roll forward and hit the scoreboard.

I’ve likened Marcus to his skipper Jack Steele, not just limited to the fact that they have similar physical attributes. But because of the hunger, they play both in the contest and provide phenomenal support to teammates without it. He might be a slightly longer burn than others on this list to become a highly relevant prospect, but to me, he’s shown plenty when tagging over the last five weeks of the season. A genuinely good prospect that’s sliding under the radar in some portions of the community.

#9 | Neil Erasmus

Another slider of this draft crop, but that’s more to do with a lack of opportunity. Neil Erasmus was one of the hottest keeper prospects this season, but he spent most of the season in the WAFL. He averaged 23 possessions, 4.6 marks and almost a goal a game from his twelve matches. All season and at junior level, it’s evident that he’s got a significant fantasy footy pedigree.

He got limited opportunities at the AFL level, including multiple subbed games, but his prolific ball winning abilities and strong overheard marking were on display. If this list were only based on projections of what they may become, I’d have Neil safely inside the top five. However, the reality, he still has to force himself into the Dockers best 22. The retirement of David Mundy might just be the gap he needs to force his way into the Fremantle team.

#10 | Tyler Sonsie

Last but no means least is Tyler Sonsie. Again, he leaps past guys like Finn Callaghan, who again have done nothing wrong, but the difference is that Tyler appears to have solidified himself into the Tigers side. His slick hands and elite stoppage work have helped him push past others at Tigerland. As the likes of Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin and even Dion Prestia start to graduate from the midfield, we should see Tyler rise into some significant fantasy scores.

As a junior, he was likened to Trent, and it’s clear to see that comparison being lived out as each week passes. The biggest knock on him heading into the draft was around his consistency, but it seems that time in the AFL system is helping. From his six games this year, he had 17 touches or more and had at least one tackle and mark in each game. The raw ingredients are there to become a very good footballer. Depending on the rules and depth in your keeper league, there’s a chance he could be sitting on the player pool & could be picked up today.

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Fantasy Musings from the 2022 Season | MiniMonk
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Read Time:6 Minute, 56 Second

After having my best season across all formats, where I (MiniMonk) ended up in 2nd in Real Dream Team, 39th in AFL Fantasy, and 245th in Supercoach, I wanted to share some lessons I’ve learnt through the season. Fantasy can be a cruel game sometimes, but I love playing it with the competitive nature of it and the sense of community that exists around it. I hope that some of these points will be useful to you for next season or in any other fantasy sports you may play in the future.

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Your starting team won’t be perfect (But it doesn’t have to be):

Looking back at the start of 2022, all the teams I made were far from perfect. I started with relatively bad premiums such as Whitfield in SuperCoach, failed midpricers like Rowell, Milera, and McInerney, and one-week rookies like Baldwin, missing out on value performers such as Brayshaw, English, Smith, Cripps, McCartin, Martin, and Xerri. It’s easy to look at your rank after the first round and be deflated; after round 1, I was just inside 1k in RDT, 15k in Fantasy, and a miserly 53k in SuperCoach. However, you’ve made the decisions for a reason, and there are still 22 rounds in the season to fix them. The early weeks of the fantasy year are to fix these mistakes in your starting squad, and this will allow you to adjust to the players that you might have missed. In both limited trade formats, I went hard early to correct my teams, using a boost in Round 3 to remove Rowell, Milera, and Whitfield. The biggest lesson from this is that you will have made mistakes in your starting squad, but there is always time to recover to a good rank as no one will have a perfect team.

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It’s Cliché for a reason; Role is everything in Fantasy:

Players will change roles at the start of the season and throughout it, whether it be due to a trade, injury, or coaching change. Quickly picking up on these role changes can rocket you up the ranks. Both Brodie and Hewett started playing inside midfield, Xerri started as the primary ruckman, Darcy Cameron got the number one ruck role when Grundy got injured, and Coniglio returned to be an inside midfielder post-coaching change. 2022 was a year where many examples of how much a role can affect their scoring, with good coaches who could pick up on these changes, making huge climbs in the ranks this season. However, it can be scary to take the plunge on players who have changed their roles due to the unpredictability of teams’ structures, especially when these changes come mid-season. 

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Trust your eyes, your gut, and the stats:

The easiest way to know what is happening with players’ roles is to watch the footy and a lot of it. The eye test is important in determining whether a player has had a role change, but sometimes you can’t get to a game; life happens, other important things get in the way, and there are so only so many hours in the day. Digesting information from others in articles or podcasts can help, with plenty of good resources available, but only statistics are truly unbiased. In the era of modern fantasy AFL, there are many good resources for centre bounce attendances, time on ground statistics, and possession heat maps. These can be used to pick a role change before others notice it, including many pundits online. Sometimes you need to wait a week before you jump on if it is due to an injury, and sometimes you might just have to back your gut (and heaven forbid the coach) that the player will get the role you think they will consistently. 

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Mistakes will happen:

Sometimes you make a bad trade, a player gets injured, or they get dropped. You might field the wrong rookie or captain the wrong player, or, like me, reverse a trade and end up with the wrong player on field. I bought in Hall for his injured 12 the week of the Stewart suspension, accidentally captained Laird for his 92 instead of using the VC on him like I had planned, and fielded Sam Hayes over Preuss when rolling back my team. No matter how good of a coach you are, there will be a time where you make a mistake, it’s going to happen to everyone through the season, but learning from the mistakes you make is important and can help you improve not only year-on-year but within the same season. Don’t panic when something goes awry or someone you don’t own pops a big score, just focus on what you can fix in your team and success will eventually come. 

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Target the value:

Jumping on the right premium at the right time is the game’s name, and this applies throughout the entire season. If you think a player will outperform what they are priced at then they are someone you should be targeting. Players can be value due to many different reasons, such as a role change, an injury, building time-on-ground, bad matchups, or a tag. Two perfect examples of value players this year are Callum Mills and Rory Laird; they had performed well in the second half of 2021, been injured late in the preseason, missed early games, and then had low time on the ground which slowly built, with their price bottoming out at round 6. Another example is Clayton Oliver, who had a tough matchup in round 4 against Port Adelaide, dropped 40k whilst still scoring at around 110, and was coming into a run of relatively soft fixtures when his price bottomed out. Getting on a premium at the right time when they bottom out allows you to build team value and get the jump on the teams around you.

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Have fun:

If you like watching a particular player, start or buy them, especially if they play for the team you support! If you can’t stand owning a player in your team, move them on! If you want to go for a point of difference, have fun with it and get them. Fantasy is just a game after all, and even when you’re ranked highly having a little bit of fun with a cheeky POD can make your season. I indulged myself by bringing in Hurn in round 17 in SuperCoach and Ellis in round 21 in AFL Fantasy, both of which turned out quite nicely. Making decisions that you will enjoy will substantially improve your experience with fantasy, and sometimes it might just improve your rank too!

If you have any questions or ever want a chat about anything fantasy related, feel free to hit me up on twitter @MiniMonk10. Hope you all had a good season and bring on 2023!

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Ten Moves That Made The Season
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Read Time:11 Minute, 3 Second

There are so many variables that go into making a successful fantasy football season. A good starting squad certainly contributes, but at the end of the day, ‘success’ comes from making the right trades at the right time. So retrospectively, MJ looks back at the 2022 season and the moves that could have made the difference this season.

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Rory Laird | Trade In | Round Six

For many in the preseason, Rory Laird was one of the players on the radar. He was coming off the back of averaging over 110 across the formats. Sadly, a hand injury in the preseason against Port Adelaide prevented many from starting with him. 

Every game Rory has played would’ve been a great time to get him in, given that he hasn’t dropped under 90 all season. However, at round six, he was at his lowest price point.

Since this time and over the last fifteen games, he’s scored fourteen AFLFanatasy/DreamTeam tons; eleven are over 120 and gone at an average of 126.6. In SuperCoach, he’s performing even better. He’s scored a ton in every game in the fifteen-game stretch; eleven are over 120, and the lowest score in his last four games is 140. Since round six, he’s going at a SuperCoach average of 131.

He’s never been ‘cheap’ this year, but if you’ve not outlaid the cash for him this season, you are probably not where you want to be in the rankings. He’s been one of the biggest difference makers this fantasy football season.

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Tom Liberatore | Trade In | Round Six

One of the great blessings for coaches this year, especially in SuperCoach, was the addition of forward status for Tom Liberatore. Libba spent the first few weeks of the year as a forward, building back fitness after having an injury-interrupted preseason. However, we saw a substantial spike in his fantasy football scoring from round six onwards, which aligned with a consistent return to his centre bounce midfield role. Since round six in SuperCoach, he’s scored eleven tons from fifteen games and has had only one score dip below 90. During this stretch of the game, he’s averaged 111. Even more impressive was if you grabbed him at the end of round five, you’d have been paying $521k for him.

To put that scoring into perspective, he’s currently the 17th highest scoring option in all of SuperCoach this year and is ranked third for all forward options. But, alongside this high scoring, consistency has been a notoriously low ownership number. Even now, under 15,000 coaches (9%) of teams own him.

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Darcy Cameron | Trade In | Round Seven

When Brodie Grundy went down with a longer term injury in round six, it was clear that Darcy Cameron would get the primary share of the ruck responsibility. However, the hesitation in bringing him in immediately in round seven was still there because we hadn’t seen him dominate outside of the NEAFL/VFL.

Since round seven, you’ve been handsomely rewarded if you did take the plunge and trade into him blind. He’s returned with six AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons at an average of 93. While in SuperCoach 98 with seven tons. These scores are excellent in light of what we paid for. However, it’s a slight dip in what he’d been doing for most of the year. Between rounds 7-19, Darcy averaged 102 in AFLFantasy and 104 in SuperCoach in an eleven game stretch. He’s been one of the season’s best picks, and arguably, without him, you’ve been playing ‘catch up’ all year.

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Mason Redman | Trade In | Round Seven

2022 is the year of previously irrelevant names pushing themselves into premium territory. Mason Redman has always been a good footballer in the backline, but that’s never translated into fantasy scoring. Until now. Over the past twelve games, Essendon has utilised Mason more, and we’ve seen the spike not just in possessions, marks and tackles but also in his fantasy output.

Over the year’s first six weeks, he averaged 76.5 in SuperCoach and 71 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Since round seven, he’s posted seven SuperCoach tons, including 144, 152 & 177. During this stretch of games, he’s been averaging 106.5. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s posted five tons, four of which were over 120 and averaged 96. It might not be the biggest ‘pop’ of all players in this article, but he’s had arguably the best ceiling of all our premium defenders.

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Jordan Dawson | Trade In | Round Seven

In hindsight, what a critical week of trading round seven appears to have been, with many teams being potentially able to make season-defining trades. Without a doubt, Jordan Dawson is having a career best season at his new club. He’s not been ‘poor’ to own at any point of the season. At the end of round six, he’d delivered two tons across the formats and averaged 92 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 99 in SuperCoach. It’s good scoring, but he’s been going better!

Over the past fourteen games since round seven, he’s been an unstoppable force! In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s gone at an average of 104, including nine tons and just one score under 85. While in SuperCoach, he’s averaged 113, scored ten tons, five of which have been over 130, and Dawson has dipped his scoring under 90 in just one game.

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Patrick Cripps | Trade Out | Round Eight

No player started the 2022 fantasy football season stronger than Carlton skipper Patrick Cripps. Even with a hamstring related injury early in round four and missing the subsequent match, he was still fire and a season defining selection. If you include his injury affected game, he still averaged 116 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 125 in SuperCoach. Using the power of hindsight, coaches that jumped off here not only maxed out his value and points scoring but also gave themselves some considerable better sleep at night.

From round eight and over the next twelve games, he’s averaged 95 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 101 in SuperCoach. These are far from ‘poor’ scores, but when coaches were paying for him to be a 110-120 premium midfielder and getting scores well below. So perhaps there are some lessons for coaches to ponder for future seasons. 

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Braydon Preuss | Trade Out | Round 10

Sigh! Every week since January, I’ve spoken about Braydon Preuss this year in a podcast or an article for the Coaches Panel. So at least my decision to place him inside the top ten of the fifty most relevant seems justified now. To say owning Preuss in 2022 created some headaches might be an understatement, but the reality is the entire ruck division this season has been a dumpster fire.

He was one of the most relevant players from round three and the following seven weeks. During this stretch (yes, he missed round five with a suspension), he averaged 98 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 110 in SuperCoach. At round ten, when he was out of the side with illness. Any coach who jumped off him would have been rewarded. This ‘sick’ week was followed up by an additional week of him missing with covid, the bye and then being overlooked. By the time he did get back into the side in round fourteen, he was subbed out of the game early in the first quarter with an ankle injury. Preuss didn’t make it back into the Giants side again until round nineteen.

Safe to say, if coaches took the first ‘exit’ on Preuss and pocketed his cash, they would’ve saved themselves plenty of heartaches.

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Stephen Coniglio | Trade In | Round Thirteen

Many coaches started with Stephen Coniglio. He loomed as one of the best value picks in our starting squads in 2022. With multiple 80+ scores, including a few tons in the opening seven weeks, ‘Cogs’ was doing exactly what he expected. However, in rounds eight & nine, he played heavily as a forward and returned multiple poor scores. As a result, a high volume of fantasy footballers traded him out, especially with his bye break just around the corner.

Over rounds ten and eleventh, we saw him spike back into the midfield, and unsurprisingly the scoring returned to where it had been for the year. While holding Cogs was the right call at round thirteen after the bye, he was ripe for the picking. In SuperCoach, he would’ve set you back just over $430k, AFLFantasy $704,000 and DreamTeam just under $670k. From the bye, he’s averaged 110 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 115 in SuperCoach.

If you traded back into Cogs at this time, well done. Even more so if you ‘kept the faith’ and held him.

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Harry Himmelberg | Trade In | Round Thirteen

What a crazy season 2022 has been! When players like Harry Himmelberg are among the most vital trade moves of the year. That’s not having a go at Harry, but rather stating that before his flip into the backline, he’s been someone even draft coaches in deep leagues haven’t even considered. The scoring run of Himmelberg did start in round eleven against Brisbane. It’s here when he was deployed across the backline and scored 101 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 126 in SuperCoach.

After the GWS bye rounds, Himmelberg was ripe for picking. A risky pick, no doubt, but triple nonetheless. He’d have set you back $350k in SuperCoach, $472k in AFLFantasy and $511k in AFLDreamTeam. The nine game stretch has had some monster high scoring matches (north of 150+). In addition to some games, he struggled to get to 70. However, he’s averaged 101 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 115 in SuperCoach. Additionally, he’s gained DEF status and has become a helpful linkman in creating squad versatility as injuries have hit teams.

Owning him has been a gauntlet to run most weeks, with interim coach Mark McVeigh constantly hinting at him returning to the forward line. However, for the most part, he’s been a phenomenally smart pick for the brave coaches that jumped on.

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Zach Merrett | Trade In | Round Fifteen

Until a week ago, nobody would’ve questioned Zach Merrett’s inclusion in the list. But, as disappointing as his scores last week may have been, the reality is that he’s been among the top scoring premiums across the formats. After the bye rounds, Merrett was a popular buy low premium, but it wasn’t until round fifteen that he started to turn the scoring on. These past seven weeks, he has averaged 125 in SuperCoach and 121 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

Entering round fifteen in AFLFantasy, he’d have set you back $774,000 for SuperCoach it was $529,600 and DreamTeam $774,900. So getting him now will cost you almost $200k more in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and over $100k in SuperCoach. So not only has he been scoring phenomenally, but he’s also returning sensational value for money!

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Possible DPP’s | Round 18
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Before rounds 6, 12 and 18, the gang at Champion Data add some new DPP into the game. After round 18 concludes on Sunday, the first list of names and positions will be released. Historically, players need a minimum of 35% to be considered for a new allocation in a new position. So, we have in-season DPP additions for the first time in SuperCoach & DreamTeam history. For AFLFantasy coaches, you are an old hand at these. So let’s see which players are locks, close or no chance of getting DPP.

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ADD DEFENDER

Harry Himmelberg

I never thought I’d do a ‘DPP’ write-up for Harry Himmelberg; he seemed destined to always be a tall target inside the Giants forward line. However, in rounds 10 & 11, he was thrown into a key defensive position under a new coaching regime. To his credit, he’s looked very good there, and his scoring has taken a considerable bump. Even the return of Nick Haynes and Phil Davis has done little to move him from the role. He looks a genuine premium and is someone you can lock in for DEF/FWD status.

Brady Hough

He’s likely no longer in your classic team and even less likely in your draft team, so many won’t get too excited by this addition. However, with the Eagles cavalry starting to return, it won’t shock me to see Brady Hough squeezed out of the West Coast lineup. But keeper and dynasty league coaches might be paying a little more attention. Hough has looked at home across the Eagles halfback flank, and his round 11 score of 99 against the Bulldogs shows that he can score well within the teams structure and style. So depending on the depth of ‘keepers’, be may be worth a stash on your list.

Andy McGrath

During the preseason, Andrew McGrath was one of the most hyped players. As a midfielder, his average in the mid to high 80’s is less than ideal in drafts, let alone in classic. However, with the potential inclusion of defensive DPP being added, he does become a player of interest in drafting formats. His run off the halfback before some injuries hit was starting to look like a promising fantasy footy role.

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ADD MIDFIELD

Tom Atkins

The role change of Tom Atkins has been sudden and obvious at Geelong over the past six matches. Over this stretch of games, he’s attended 29%, 73%, 73%, 83%, 77% & 54% of centre bounces for the Cats. Tom’s hard at it contested nature has thrived as a centre bounce midfielder, and his scoring has increased as a direct result. The addition of midfield status might not help you on field scoring in drafts, but if he holds this role, he will be selected on the field in your backline given the good scores. 

Bailey Williams

What a surprise, but Luke Beveridge has given a player a role change! All jokes aside, Bailey Williams has taken his opportunity on the wing. With the absence of Lachie Hunter, he has owned the wing for the past few months. His true value to his owners is he can be played as a backman. However, squad versatility is always helpful, and so should this DPP land; it’ll be another layer of potential versatility within your team.

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ADD RUCK

Jeremy Finlayson

Two things. First, the addition of ruck status for Jeremy Finlayson is an absolute lock to happen. Since round 11, he’s been the primary ruckman for the pear and had multiple games where he’s attended north of 70% centre bounces. Second, how the Power continues to use him over Sam Hayes is beyond me. Hayes has his shortfalls, but so does Finlayson in the ruck. Port Adelaide has been lucky that the decision to play Jeremy over Hayes hasn’t cost them a game… yet! 

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Mason Cox

Ever since his debut as a Magpie, Mason Cox has spent some game time in the ruck. But over the past six weeks, it’s been increasingly evident. In the past four weeks, he’s attended an average of 44% of Collingwood’s centre bounces. Even without the impending return of Brodie Grundy within the next week or two, he’s not someone to consider trading into in classic or draft formats. 

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ADD FORWARD

Wayne Milera

It’s been a tough run over the past few seasons for Wayne Milera, but he seems to have finally gotten confidence and strength back into his body. Since getting back into Crows side over the past month, he’s been deployed as a half-forward. I like this role and the use of his skill set. With Jordan Dawson and Brodie Smith playing the primary ball users across half-back and Jake Soligo and Jackson Hately holding down the wings, it’s as a forward the greatest opportunity for his skills can shine. So much has been made about Adelaide’s poor inside 50 entries over the past few years; by having Wayne as a half-forward, we should see this increase in better entries. He’s only played 6 games for the year, so while the positional data os sufficient he hasn’t played enough games to qualify.

Griffin Logue

A DPP gain that’s not fantasy relevant for us but is a warranted add if the gang at Champion Data feel inclined. Griffin Logue was initially deployed as a forward after the Dockers underwent a calamity of injuries to their key position forwards. However, he did a good job bringing the ball to the ground and applying defensive pressure on the opposition’s best interceptor he’s been given a great opportunity in the role. Again, it’s not a beneficial fantasy gain but a factual one.

Lachie Jones

Port Adelaide fans have been calling for Lachie Jones to get a strong run at the AFL level for a while. The pear has found the best place to give him this opportunity has been to use him as a forward. His trademark physicality has been on display, and while he’s not scoring massively, it is a DPP gain that’s warranted. 

Nat Fyfe

Plenty will be calling for it, but Nat Fyfe has played just three games, and the minimum qualifying amount is ten at this stage of the season. He won’t get it as much as Fyfe is certainly being used as a primary forward. 

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Sam Walsh

Fantasy coaches have come to understand more in 2022 that players starting position at centre bounces play a significant role in a player being DPP eligible. Sometimes without being at the games to watch the ground and how players have been coached to set up, it’s hard to notice this. However, the TV stations covering his games have quickly said that Walsh is starting inside the forward 50 under the 6-6-6 rule and then pushing up into the contest as an extra midfielder.
Over the year, Walsh is averaging 54% of centre bounce attendances and just 47% in the last seven weeks. What’s not factored into CBA’s is when a player starts on the wing, which Walsh has done, especially in the first few months of the season. So I’d suggest it’s more doubtful than probable that it gets MID/FWD status. But if he does, it’ll be a positional change that will shake up the team’s ideal best on-field forwards.

Jack Billings

Much like Fyfe above, Jack Billings is spending plenty of time forward but won’t be eligible due to him playing insufficient games.

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UltimateFooty | Possible DPP Additions | Round Fifteen
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After rounds 3, 6, 12 & 15, the drafting format of Ultimate Footy awards additional player positions to players that have had a role change in the season. As always, players are required to have played a minimum of 3 games to be eligible and to be playing the new position as their primary role in the side. So, for the final time this season, let’s look at who they are and their relevance to your draft sides and leagues.

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Elliot Yeo | ADD BACK

It’s been a tough few seasons if you’ve owned Elliot Yeo. Injuries have sadly got the best of him. However, in the limited games that he has played, he’s been deployed into the backline as an interceptor. The role isn’t unfamiliar to him as it’s where he played when he first got traded to the Eagles. Adding back status is a huge boost to his owners potential scoring. In the past two weeks, he’s scored 84 & 80. As a centre only, that’s just in contention to be on the field. Now, he’s an absolute lock to play on the ground as a defender. 

Harry Himmelberg | ADD BACK

Some positional moves come out of the blue and pay massive dividends for coaches every year. In 2022 the move down back Harry Himmerlberg is in contention for that mantle. He was drafted in just 18% of teams with an ADP of 293. However, since the move, he’s been an animal playing the intercepting and key position defensive role. To his credit, he’s looked very good there, and his scoring has taken a considerable bump. After having just one score over 70 between rounds 1-9, he’s scored a 74, 101, 161, 99 & 117 in this new role. Even the return of Nick Haynes and Phil Davis has done little to move him from the role. 

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Jayden Short | ADD CENTRE

Normally when a player gets some heavy midfield time, we see a spike in scoring. Sadly for Jayden Short owners, that hasn’t been the case. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still been very good, but he hasn’t entered the uber scoring that owners might have been hoping for with the role shift. Since round six, Short has been attending an average of 52% of centre bounces for the Tigers. An obvious and easy addition for the gang at UF!

Tom Atkins | ADD CENTRE

The role change of Tom Atkins has been sudden and obvious at Geelong over the past five matches. Over this stretch of games, he’s attended 29%, 73%, 73%, 83% & 77% of centre bounces for the Cats. Tom’s hard at it contested nature has thrived as a centre bounce midfielder, and his scoring has increased as a direct result. The addition of centre status might not help you on field centre line scoring, but if he holds this role, he will be selected on the field in your backline given the good scores. 

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Bailey Williams | ADD CENTRE

What a surprise, but Luke Beveridge has given a player a role change! All jokes aside, Bailey Williams has taken his opportunity on the wing. With the absence recent absence of Lachie Hunter, he has owned the wing for the past few months. His true value to his owners is he can be played as a backman. However, squad versatility is always helpful, and so like Atkins above, it’s just adding versatility to your team

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Jeremy Finlayson | ADD RUCK

Since round 11, Jeremy Finlayson has been the primary ruckman for the pear and had multiple games where he’s attended north of 70% centre bounces. He’s delivered a couple of scores in the high 70s in this role and has been a handy player pool pick-up. Just be aware that first choice ruckmen Scott Lycett is due to return shortly.

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Wayne Milera | ADD FWD

It’s been a tough run over the past few seasons for Wayne Milera, but he seems to have finally gotten confidence and strength back into his body. Since getting back into Crows side over the past month, he’s been deployed as a half-forward. I like this role and the use of his skill set. With Jordan Dawson and Brodie Smith playing the primary ball users across half-back and Jake Soligo and Jackson Hately holding down the wings, it’s as a forward the greatest opportunity for his skills can shine. So much has been made about Adelaide’s poor inside 50 entries over the past few years; by having Wayne as a half-forward, we should see this increase in better entries. 

Lachlan Jones | ADD FWD

Port Adelaide fans have been calling for Lachie Jones to get a strong run at the AFL level for a while. The pear has found the best place to give him this opportunity has been to use him as a forward. His trademark physicality has been on display, and while he’s not scoring massively, it is a DPP gain that’s warranted. 

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Is It Too Late To Get Luke Jackson? | Patreon Exclusive
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After a dominant first up performance as a solo ruck, many are looking at Luke Jackson as a trade target this week? But is it too late to get him?

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It’s the question that cash and trade strapped fantasy coaches are wrestling with throughout this week. In his first week without Max Gawn, Jackson delivered a 125 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 122 in SuperCoach. He’ll make some decent coin over the next few weeks and likely score well again this week against Reilly O’Brien. But is trading into Jackson the right move?

Giving generalised trading advice can be filled with danger at any time of the season. But it’s even more so in the final third of the year. The reason being is teams are all in varying shapes with the variables of injuries and bullets teams have copped throughout the year. Despite this, I’m happy to make a ‘sweeping statement’ across teams.

In SuperCoach and DreamTeam, I cannot advocate for trading into Luke Jackson! All the news from Melbourne is that Max will be back next week. As a result, coaches will likely only get one more week of maximum output before his scoring returns to something that resembles his prior scoring trend. Which, for the record, is low 70’s in AFLFantasy and low 80’s in SuperCoach. Even with the flexibility of long-term structure support as a RUC/FWD DPP, it was a move that needed to be made last week to capitalise on the maximum games of Gawn’s absence. By getting him now, your chasing points missed and have lost the trade’s full value. A vast majority of teams in the limited trade formats aren’t in the luxurious position of trading into bench depth, which, based on his scoring history, you’ll need Jackson to become.

Ultimately, in these formats, it was a last week trade!

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In AFLFantasy, it’s a little more team dependent. The weekly ‘use or lose‘ two trades mean that coaches can play a slightly different strategy. Should Jackson score 90 this round, he’ll increase his value by approximately $43,000. Should Gawn return the following week and Jackson returns to scoring a 70 he’ll still make a further $21k. One more week beyond that of a 70, he’ll increase his value by just $3,000.

I highlight this to ask one question? Is the forecast scoring of 160 points over two weeks and $64,000 generated the best moves for your team? After that, you’ll likely want to trade him out.

For some teams, it’s how they can get a cash cow off the ground and make some money simultaneously. So for those scenarios, I don’t hate the move. However, most teams can do better over a three week period from a cash generation and points on-field perspective.

So is it too late to trade into Luke Jackson? Unfortunately, for most coaches and their teams, the answer is yes.

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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