50 Most Relevant Archives - Page 30 of 32

#27 Most Relevant: Alex Witherden

Read Time:4 Minute, 54 Second

He’s one of the most hyped defenders of the preseason, but is it worthwhile excitement or just froth and bubble?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Alex Witherden
Age: 20
Club: Brisbane Lions
Position: Defender

2018 Highest Score:
138 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
131 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
88 (AFLFantasy)
83.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $455,000
AFLFantasy Price: $639,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $629,400

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

History suggests that the most common season a player has a ‘breakout’ into the premium territory as a fantasy player is in the third year in the AFL system. While there are always exceptions to any rule, it’s probably a fair enough call to suggest that Alex Witherden ‘broke out’ from the moment he entered into the AFL.

After making his debut in round 14 against the Giants in 2017, he didn’t miss a game playing nine games consecutively and scoring above 70 for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and averaged 88. While in SuperCoach he posted 2 tons, didn’t score below 69 and averaged 87. Then last year he continued where his debut year left off. He played 21 games, posted 5 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scores over 100 of those triple-figure scores his lowest was 116, a ceiling that not too many premium defenders can match. For SuperCoach he averaged 83 across the season with six matches him posting a century, and 4 of those were above 110. These averages include an injury-affected score of 15 in AFLFantasy & 13 in SuperCoach.

As promising as his fantasy development is, a look at his final ten games of the year (1/3 of his total career) is where fantasy coaches heading into 2019 start to get excited about the development. Over his final ten full games, his AFLFantasy/DreamTeam average was 99.6 while in SuperCoach it was 93.6. If Witho was to maintain that average point across the year that would place him currently as the #4 ranked defender in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 8th overall in SuperCoach

Even just based on natural development and the scoring trajectory the potential increase of scoring gets even better thanks to the new kick-in rules. Over the summer the AFL announced multiple rule changes, but one of them was that players no longer had to ‘kick to themselves’ to play on. Rather they could now just run the ball outside of the goal square and ‘play on’ would be called by the umpire. Champion Data announced recently that all kicks that are taken outside of the goal would be awarded as disposal, while any handball in or out of the square will also be recorded to the player.

In 2018 Alex Witherden took 50% of all kick in’s for the club and elected to play on close to 50% of the time. I’d expect given the current defensive structure of the Lions he should maintain the role in 2019. While in contrast to others the possible points boost is smaller given his already high play on percentage, this new scoring points avenue plus the projected natural development can only be a good sign for his scoring

MY TAKE

Yes, the new kick-in rules should mean that players who take this duty frequently should see a scoring increase. While for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam this is 100% the case, for SuperCoach it does present a potential concern. If disposal is deemed a clanger by champion data, they will do deduct points which could impact his (and other defenders) scoring potential. For what it’s worth Alex went to 78% disposal efficiencies in 2018 and 75% in 2017, so clangers and he are so not a big concern.

All signs point to a bump that makes him a premium defender, but the concern about him is can you in what defensive position you select him. Can you start him over the big boys like Rory Laird and Jake Lloyd especially in the limited trades of DreamTeam & SuperCoach? For me, I feel my defensive unit would be too shallow if I had him at D2 and if I had him at D4 your probably running the backline too deep. How coaches structure up the defensive 6 is a fascinating decision and will ultimately impact points and cash options in other lines. In our backline, we do possess plenty of value options we have in Brodie Smith, Pearce Hanley, Zac Williams & Dylan Roberton among others plus numerous strong cash cows. Therefore, in the limited trades that leaves him as a D3 and puts him squarely fighting for a spot with Kade Simpson, James Sicily, Connor Blakely, Lachie Whitfield, Shannon Hurn and Jack Crisp. I’m happy to pay the extra to get him in these formats and upgrade to him in season. I certainly wouldn’t talk anyone out of starting him as the likely scoring increase looks all but certainly based on all known variables.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

On current average he’s ranked as a top 10 defender in AFLFantasy/SuperCoach and I certainly think he’s in the top 10 heading into the new year. Based on that he’ll likely be an D1 in many leagues, that said I’d feel selecting him inside the top 20 overall selections feels a little too high for mine. In SuperCoach he’s currently ranked 26th so in those scoring leagues he’s a D2 at highest but ideally I’d be stocked to grab as my D3.

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#28 Most Relevant: Stephen Coniglio

Read Time:4 Minute, 15 Second

In 2018 he was one of the most popular midfielders, but with no discount does the fantasy community believe he can do it again?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Stephen Coniglio
Age: 25
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield

2018 Highest Score:
152 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
157 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
110.3 (AFLFantasy)
108.4 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $588,600
AFLFantasy Price: $801,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $789,500

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

After a frustrating 2017 was interrupted by injuries, we finally got to see the best of the former #2 draft pick. Last year he delivered one of his most consistent seasons to date averaging 28 possessions, 11 of those were contested, 17 uncontested, seven score involvements, five tackles, five clearances, four inside ’50s and a goal a game. On top of this in 6 matches last year he hit the scoreboard kicking two goals or more.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective in 15 matches he scored 100 or more, 6 of those were above 120, and he averaged 110 for the year. Last year only twice all year did his scores drop below 90. To start the year, he flew out of the gate too with his opening six games all being scores over 100 and during that time he averaged 118.6.

While not as hot of a year in SuperCoach he was still a brilliant selection with 12 scores over 100 including 7 of them over 120, 4 of them over 138 and a seasonal average 108. To round out his year only twice did he score below 80.

Last year was much more than a once off stunning season, despite many injuries in 2017 he still showed he could score well with multiple big hundreds. Similarly, in 2016, he averaged over 100 and raised the ton in 13 matches in all formats.

He posses firm scoring ceiling across all formats, is consistent enough that he can honestly be in consideration as a genuine captaincy option given the right matchup. His scoring basement is strong especially in contrast to other premiums and then the fact that many within the fantasy community are seemingly forgetting his history from last year means those who do choose him will have a robust and unique option who last year was a top 10 averaging midfielder in all formats.

MY TAKE

Earlier in the 50 Most Relevant series, I wrote about Jacob Hopper and the likely bump in midfield rotations and potential fantasy output he’ll have with the departure of Dylan Shiel. Does his exiting of the club damage Coniglio’s scoring? I don’t believe so. Firstly, Stephen is the player the Giants use to negate opposition midfielders at stoppages, and while he did have some time during games when opposing coaches did choose to shut him down, I’d be shocked if consistently teams locked him down and let Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield free through the midfield.

Last year he scored 16 AFLFantasy tons and 12 in SuperCoach if you contrast with the other top 10 midfielders by average you’d see he lands in a strong position especially in AFLFantasy where only Tom Mitchell scored more tons than him.

Speaking of the fantasy beast ever since he went down with a likely season-ending injury it’s opened up a whole new world of possibilities for coaches, and that can only be a good thing. Not only just from a captaincy choice perspective but from the plethora of unique options and combinations that now can create points of difference in midfield. A player like Stephen Coniglio is a more than worthy replacement (all be it cheaper) mainly based on his previous scoring history.

If you aren’t convinced in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he can go 110 again or push that average beyond slightly, let alone hold his 108 in SuperCoach you need to probably then look to consider Cogs as an upgrade more so than a starting squad option. He’s an upgrade target for me but I’d certainly strongly back in any coach who started with him given I can see him continuing on his current scoring trend and that fact he’ll likely have a highly unique factor is a hugely exciting prospect for owners.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Where he goes will be fascinating to watch as based off last years numbers he’ll be a likely M1 for coaches. Whether or not he goes in the top 10, I’m not sold on, but he’s almost certain to be off the board inside the top 20 selections overall. If by some miracle you jag Stephen Coniglio in the 3rd round you’ve probably won the draft already.

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#29 Most Relevant: Kade Simpson

Read Time:4 Minute, 27 Second

Reliable, Consistent, Durable and just keeps finding a way to get it done. Is Simmo set for another big fantasy season in 2019?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Kade Simpson
Age: 34
Club: Carlton Blues
Position: Defender

2018 Highest Score:
131 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
150 Vs Richmond (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
95.2 (AFLFantasy)
105 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $570,300
AFLFantasy Price: $692,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $682,200

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Every single year Kade Simpson seems to find a way to be among the top scoring defenders and be one of the most reliable fantasy premium options. Last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he scored over 100 in 10 matches and impressively 8 of them over 110 and finished the year averaging 95. For SuperCoach from his ten scores over the ton, just one of them under 110 and he increased his output by 12 points up to 105.

One of the primary reasons for a scoring bump especially in SuperCoach was the need for him to take further responsibility inside defensive 50 with the season-ending ACL injury to Sam Docherty. Sadly, yet again in 2019 ‘Doc’ will once again miss another year of footy and despite the Blues being a developing young side they still rely heavily upon the leadership, influence and disposal of Simmo.

Over the past three seasons he’s been a picture of durability and scoring consistency, he has only missed just the one game and hasn’t averaged beneath 93 in any format during that time. Only once since 2005 has he not played 20 games or more, even at 34, he doesn’t show any signs of slowing down with many around the club believe he has at least another good season in him beyond this one.

One of the new variables fantasy coaches will need to succeed is the new Kick-ins rules and the impact to scoring that will have. Last year Simmo took 36% of all Carlton kick-ins, and about half of those he played on. However, due to the way Champion Data has confirmed what they’ll be doing with statistics Kade (among others) should be optimistic about receiving a points scoring bump.

As per previous seasons, there will be no disposal given when a player kicks-in while clearly still in the square, even after the umpire has called “play on”. Once the player steps completely out of the square before kicking-in, this will count as a disposal, similar to past seasons after a kick-in to self. All handballs will be counted as disposals regardless of where the player is standing.

These likely additional points should only further enhance what is already a reliable premium option in our backlines.

MY TAKE

Traditionally the further you enter into the 30’s you start to slowly drop away certainly as a fantasy player if nothing else. However, nothing indicates that Kade Simpson will slow down his points scoring anytime soon. The fact that with the new rules he actually could yet again gain in scoring is quite a likely possibility.

While nothing is ever certain in fantasy footy, history suggests to us that another stronger 90+ if not a 100+ year from Simmo is likely. With many coaches being attracted to the potential of youngsters in James Sicily, Alex Witherden and Jack Crisp it could be entirely possible that Simpson’s ownership is considerably lower than it should. On the topic of other defenders he shares his bye round with Rory Laird and Lachie Whitfield in round 14 and is a worthy candidate to start alongside or potential even instead of either of these premiums.

He also loves the big stage of the opening game of the year, over the past three seasons he’s opened up his AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scoring with 129, 126 & 118 while in SuperCoach it’s scores of 150, 107, 104.

Some may suggest that due to his age and the Blues list profile that he may be forced to call it quits mid-season to give more kids game time. While it may well be his final year, he won’t be forced to retire during season or kids selected over him. Simpson is the heart and soul of this football club and is a true warrior for them. For me, I currently have Simpson locked into my DreamTeam side and will plan to bring him in at some point for SuperCoach & AFLFantasy as an upgrade target.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Across all formats most fantasy coaches seem to believe it’s a pretty clear top 2 in Rory Laird and Jake Lloyd but then you can start to build a case for a variety of defenders to finish top 5. For me I still believe Simmo is a worthy D1 selection, but whether or not he goes inside the top 30 overall selections will be of great interest to me.

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#30 Most Relevant: Elliot Yeo

Read Time:4 Minute, 14 Second

A loss of defensive status doesn’t mean it’s a loss of fantasy relevance for this premiership Eagle.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Elliot Yeo
Age: 25
Club: West Coast Eagles
Position: Midfield

2018 Highest Score:
138 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
150 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
106.7 (AFLFantasy)
107.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $570,300
AFLFantasy Price: $692,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $682,200

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

After previously being awarded All Australian selection at half-back, Yeo took the next evolution in his game by moving into the midfield and arguably is now among of the games elite midfielders. In 2018 he delivered career-highs for disposals, tackles, inside 50s, clearances, contested possessions and goal assists plus he ended up winning the clubs best and fairest in a year where they won the flag.

From a fantasy footy perspective, it was a career best for the Eagles star. In SuperCoach he finished the year with 15 tons, 7 of those were over 120 and an average of 107. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he scored 100 or more in 14 matches, 6 of them over 120 and an average of 106.

Not only does he boast a strong ceiling but his scoring basement is consistently high. Only 3 times in SuperCoach and 4 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam did his scores dip below 90 which included a clear once off a shocker against the Cats in round 3 where he was used as a lockdown defender and scored 46 AFLFantasy/SuperCoach and a 27 in SuperCoach. Take this clear once off out of his seasonal average is around that of 110 across all formats.

Yeo in 2018 and likely again in 2019 will rarely get the attention of taggers given Andrew Gaff and also Luke Shuey are both arguably more damaging by foot or susceptible to the attention.

MY TAKE

The loss of dual position status can sometimes be a blessing in disguise for Fantasy coaches. If Yeo were to retain defensive status he’d be in contention as the #1 defender and a likely 40-50% ownership. However, the midfielder only status can turn coaches away from selecting him. Just last year Jackson Macrae went from a popular owned forward to a rarely selected midfielder in starting squads and yet turned out to be one of the best fantasy options in the game. The low ownership numbers of a premium can be either a blessing or a curse depending on how they start their season. The positive, is you have a unique gun killing it for you and something that’s setting your side up different from the pack. The negative is if he fails to deliver only barely anyone feels the pain and can seriously stall your push for rankings early in the year.

One does need to wonder whether or not he’s a better or worse fantasy option with Andrew Gaff in the side. While we have only 3 games of ‘home and away’ footy data we did a bump of 15 points per game in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and a dip of 10 points in SuperCoach when Yeo played without Gaff. Truth be told though, Gaff is due back from suspension in the 3rd round of the year. So any potential impact (positive or negative) is minimal.

The big question for those seriously considering starting with Yeo is can he find a way to give a further bump to his seasonal averages and go over 110. In just pure midfield for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, only 4 are currently available one of which is Tom Mitchell while in SuperCoach it’s 8. Elliot’s close enough to the big boys, and as I said if you remove the clear one off against Geelong last year and he’s a 110 midfielder.

His bye round means he’ll miss round 13 along with premium midfielders in Lachie Neale, Adam Treloar, Dayne Beams, Joel Selwood, Clayton Oliver and previous inclusion in the 50 Most Relevant Angus Brayshaw. At 25 he’s just starting to hit his peak and needs to be seriously considered as a unique starting squad option in all formats of the game.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Based on current avg: Ranked 12th mid in SuperCoach and 10th in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam despite this he will likely be many teams M2 with guys that a more ‘attractive’ fantasy names like Matt Crouch and Zach Merrett ranked below him.

In many drafts, the earliest he’ll go is late second round but it’ll be pretty safe to suggest he’ll be we’ll and truly gone before the end of the fouth.

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#31 Most Relevant: Josh Dunkley

Read Time:4 Minute, 37 Second

He flew home as one of the most inform scoring forwards in fantasy footy last year, is scoring like that a sign of the future or a lucky scoring run?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Josh Dunkley
Age: 22
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield/Forward

2018 Highest Score:
132 Vs Carlton (AFLFantasy)
157 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
95.7 (AFLFantasy)
95.1 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $516,300
AFLFantasy Price: $695,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $685,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

One of the sweetest feelings for a Fantasy footy coach is jumping on a player that’s in red hot form who’s pumping out massive scores week in week out and at any time over the final 9 games, you owned Josh Dunkley last year you got to experience that sweet feeling. During this stretch of games in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 112 and scored 7 tons, 5 of them were over 110 and his lowest score was 96. For SuperCoach he averaged 115 and scored 7 tons, 3 of them were over 130 and his lowest score was 86.

The reason for the points explosion was after making his way back into the side from a VFL stint the move was made by the coaching staff to move him from a forward-based role to an exclusive ball winning midfielder. However, while it’s not quite the lofty scores he was still being reasonable in his opening 10 games of the year he averaged 80 in AFLFantasy with just the one ton, while SuperCoach he scored 2 tons at an average of 76.5.

Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge does have a history of changing a players role late in the year and then if a player is successful in that space he’ll maintain that into a new year. Over the final 10 games of 2017, Toby McLean averaged 95 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam after only having only one score over 90 in his first 9 games. While in SuperCoach he ended the year final 10 game stretch with an average of 97 after failing to score a ton in the opening 9 games. This impressive form was enough to secure a fulltime midfield role in 2018. While nothing is ever for certain, it does give coaches confidence that Luke Beveridge has rewarded performance before.

Even in his debut season, we could see the development of a fantasy player. In 2016 he averaged 80 in AFLFantasy and scored 4 tons while in SuperCoach he averaged 69 and had 3 scores in the ’90s. Not bad for a first 13 games at the elite level.

MY TAKE

The biggest question mark surrounding Dunkley isn’t his scoring capacity but rather whether or not he’ll be afforded the role that he so well played towards the conclusion of 2018. Just a few days ago we spoke about Tom Liberatore who when playing is an elite clearance and contested ball winner. By all reports, he’s had a bumper preseason and is ready to be released back into the midfield group. Equally, can Toby McLean and Josh Dunkley co-exist in the same midfield? I believe the answer is ‘yes’ in part as they are different types of players, but also as we saw it for a majority of the last 9 games of the year. Both were part of plenty of midfield rotations, rather it was the now-departed Luke Dahlhaus that had a decrease in his midfield opportunities as he was used more forward.

One of the things that helped the Dogs win them the premiership in 2016 was the versatility and flexibility, the negative for fantasy coaches is when players are used in multiple roles unpredictably it can be difficult to have confidence in the selection of a player, especially if one of those secondary roles isn’t fantasy friendly.

Given what we know he can deliver he must be firmly on your watchlist if nothing else. I know plenty of coaches will choose to view him as an upgrade target up until the JLT if not beyond depending on the potential role adjustments the Dogs midfield unit may make. If he does retain that primary midfield role he’d need to be among one of your first forwards you upgrade to because he could very quickly price himself into a position where you may have to use 3 trades in DreamTeam or SuperCoach or acquire him. If he goes back forward predominantly coaches will be burned badly and misfire early in the season.

For mine, he’s on my watchlist and if I like the role I see in the JLT I can see myself starting with him.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

If you want to own Josh Dunkley in 2019 he’ll likely cost you an F1 spot even with all the potential question marks around him his upside means he can be seriously in the conversation as the highest scoring forward overall. A selection inside the top 3 rounds probably feels early, but I can’t see him being there by the time you get around to your 5th overall pick.

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#32 Most Relevant: Chad Wingard

Read Time:5 Minute, 2 Second

When given the right role he’s a premium forward but does a move clubs help or hinder his fantasy footy relevance?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Chad Wingard
Age: 25
Club: Hawthorn Hawks
Position: Midfield/Forward

2018 Highest Score:
124 Vs Western Bulldogs (AFLFantasy)
122 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
82.3 (AFLFantasy)
88.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $407,800
AFLFantasy Price: $598,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $474,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Chad Wingard is a special player! He posses a rare combination of line breaking speed, terrific goal sense, elusive in the contest, strong overhead grab and the ability to find players in space at seeming ease. While Power fans will be very happy with there haul from the trade it cant be understated just how big of the loss his talent will be for the club and how much of a gain to the Hawks he is.

In his final season at the Power, it was very much a split season from a fantasy footy perspective. Over his opening 9 games of the season, he had just one score over 90 and averaged 64 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 69 in SuperCoach. During this time Wingard was barely used outside forward 50 often as a crumbing forward at the feet of the Port tall forwards. From round 12 until seasons end his role in the side changed drastically as he was released to play predominantly as a midfielder and as such his fantasy numbers skyrocketed. During these 12 games, he scored 5 tons, didn’t drop below 73 and averaged 96 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. While for SuperCoach it was 8 scores over the hundred markers, a lowest of 80 and an average of 102. Coaches that timed his inclusion correctly where rewarded with premium numbers at a minimal amount.

Time and time again over his career Wingard has shown off his elite talents winning All Australian honours in 2013 and 2015. In both of these years, he averaged 90 in SuperCoach so he’s from a one season wonder when it comes to his fantasy scoring.

In 2017 Ken Hinkley used him in almost the perfect role for most of the year and it returned him a consistent season across averaging 22 disposals, 4 marks, 3 tackles, just over a goal a game and in all formats, he averaged over 90 with just a handful of tons in each.

His career has also shown that when allowed to get the right role which can include rotations through the midfield then he’s got the capabilities to be a premium forward.

MY TAKE

Ever since fantasy footy beast Tom Mitchell went down a little over a week ago the speculation about who does take the responsibility in the midfield has been frantic. While I do think Chad Wingard can and has played a role in the Port midfield group, to suggest he alone will replace Titch and play exclusively midfield is ignorant. Yes, Chad is more than capable of winning the ball inside the contest, but he’s far from the inside bull, clearance player and first touch extraction specialist that Mitchell was. While Mitchell going down does further weaken an already shallow midfield his role in the side won’t be replaced by exclusive midfield rotations from Wingard, rather players such as James Worpel, James Cousins and even Daniel Howe will need to take greater responsibility as ball winners. To believe Mitchell out equals Wingard a fantasy lock without proof is a misunderstanding of each players strengths. That said, I do believe he’ll be required to increase his midfield rotations by a few per term, but just won’t be the ‘1 in 1 out’ that some in the fantasy community have proposed.

So what role does he have in the Hawthorn side? Plenty of times Hawks Coach Alastair Clarkson has spoken very favourably of Wingard in the past having watched him closely when he coached the international rules team. For mine, I believe Clarkson sees Wingard as a forward who can certainly take his turn in the midfield; but be predominantly used as a match winner inside the forward half. By recruiting him the Hawks have gone as close as they can get to a Cyril Rioli replacement.

At Port when he’s given the chance to not just be a small pressure and goal kicking forward Wingard has shown even with minimal midfield rotations he’s capable of scoring enough to be a premium forward and an average north of 90. Given the talent, they have deep inside forward 50 with smalls like Luke Bruest and even Paul Puopolo added to that the hefty price the Hawks have paid a hefty price for him and I do not believe they’ll misuse use this elite star of the game. While he’s far from locked given the unknowns of how he will be used for certain, he does offer strong value if he does get the role I predict. A potential underpriced premium is on offer and during the JLT Series and preseason intra club match simulation I’ll watch with interest how Clarko uses him.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

On potential he can push a top 10 average and be a worthy F1 selection in any format, but given the unknowns and the calibre of forwards that we have it’d be foolish to do so. While some leagues may have him fall to an F3, I do think more often than not coaches who want to own him will be using an F2 selection to own Chad.

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#33 Most Relevant: Tom Liberatore

Read Time:3 Minute, 43 Second

2018 was billed as the year we’d see Libba and his Bulldogs back to there premiership winning best. Sadly injury stalled his season, but he looks happy, hungry and ready to deliver a huge 2019 season.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Liberatore
Age: 26
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield

2018 Highest Score:
9 Vs GWS Giants (AFLFantasy)
13 Vs GWS Giants (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
9 (AFLFantasy)
13 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $300,400
AFLFantasy Price: $392,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $360,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Sadly 2018 ended almost as soon as it started for the 2016 Premiership midfielder. Just minutes into the first quarter of the opening game of the season an ACL injury ended his year. This was especially cruel for fantasy coaches taking the plunge on Libba as he’d shown during the preseason he was finally back to his best with scores of 86 & 96 for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 99 & 123 in SuperCoach for the JLT Community Series.

2017 was a difficult season for Tom but he wasn’t the only Bulldog that struggled to back up from a fairytale premiership. After averaging 108 in SuperCoach and 103 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam over the opening 3 rounds he only scored one more ton for the year across all formats and ended up with an average of 79 in SuperCoach and 72 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

During the later parts of the year, he received plenty of media criticism and from within the 4 walls of the club and while some of the heat was unwarranted he’d set such a high standard in years previously that any drop off was noticeable.

As a fantasy performer, his best years came in 2013 & 2014 where he played every game and averaged 98.1 in AFLFantasy and 108 in SuperCoach combined over the 44 games. During that time he posted 27 SuperCoach tons and 19 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, yes it’s some time ago now, but worth reminding ourselves of his scoring capabilities when injury free and allowed to dominate inside the contest.

MY TAKE

This isn’t the first time Libba’s come back from an ACL injury, he first did one that saw him miss the entirety of the 2015 season. After returning from injury he averaged 81 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 90 in SuperCoach. Fantasy footy coaches who role with Libba will happily take scores like that again.

Can he get back to his 2013 and 2014 averages? Honestly, The game has evolved so much and so many more players go through the Bulldog midfield than back than. However, for the selection of Libba to pay dividends he doesn’t need to. He’s priced against someone in the early ’50s and even if like last time he comes back and delivers a bad season, he should still score 20-25 points per game higher on that price point.

Some fantasy coaches may see the value but not want the selection because the Bulldogs have the opening bye round and would prefer a midprice midfielder to be able to run through at least one of the bye rounds like an Anthony Mils or Aaron Hall which I can understand that perspective I wouldn’t let that dictate whether I selected him or not. If you believe he’s the best scoring option of the stepping stone midfield bunch rather adjust your upgrade plans and strategies not sacrifice on selecting the ‘better’ scorer.

I’ve got Libba locked in my SuperCoach as at that price point he’s basically an inflated Cash Cow. For Fantasy and DreamTeam he’s right in the mix, but not currently locked away.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Libba will be drafted make no mistake about it, the question is where not will he. The range and midfield space he goes will depend in large to the amount of coaches in the league. For mine if Libba was my last drafted midfield on ground I’d be over the moon, potential you may have to jump earlier than that given his scoring history.

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#34 Most Relevant: Zac Williams

Read Time:4 Minute, 11 Second

Is he the best value of all the mid-price defender? Is he the safest option? Or do better options exist?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Zac Williams
Age: 24
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Defender

2017 Highest Score:
131 Vs Essendon (AFLFantasy)
145 Vs Essendon (SuperCoach)

2017 Average:
83 (AFLFantasy)
94 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $407,800
AFLFantasy Price: $421,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $474,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Zac’s the type of player I love to watch. At every opportunity, he looks to take the game on when he has the ball in his hands and creates multiple scoring opportunities with his speed and run and carry a skill combination the Giants desperately lacked last year.

Since debuting back in 2013 he’s always shown his fantasy footy potential. In just his 9th game of AFL against the Dockers, he scored 97 in AFLFantasy and 101 in SuperCoach. The potential became a reality in 2016 where from 20 games he averaged 82.5 in AFLFantasy and 88 in SuperCoach, across all formats in 10 matches he scored over the average including 4 tons.

The following year he went up another gear and posted a personal best AFLFantasy season average of 83, this included 9 scores over his average including 5 tons. For SuperCoach, it was an even stronger year with an average of 94 which featured just the 6 tons. If you look at his opening 6 games of the year he averaged 99 in SuperCoach and 90 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Owners that do start with Zac will certainly be hoping he can recreate that start to the year.

Injury dinted the majority of his season last year suffering an Achilles injury at a preseason training in January. When he did finally make his return from injury for the finals series he played as if he hadn’t missed a beat. Returning with 23 disposals, 9 marks, 4 tackles and a 107 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 117 in SuperCoach. The better news about it is that due to this coming in the finals it didn’t count towards impacting any discount he was likely to receive in 2019.

MY TAKE

How many of these midprice and stepping stone defenders do I want? Already in the past few days, we’ve discussed Dylan Roberton, Pearce Hanley, Brodie Smith and now Williams. The reason I’ve grouped them all together is that they are all so incredibly difficult to split when discussing fantasy relevancy across every format. All have different strengths over the other but all present serious value and if you’re looking at a stepping stone you, depending on the format at least one, if not maybe multiple need to be considered. The more of them the pick certainly the greater the potential risks, but as the risk variables increase so too does the potential rewards. Zac along with all these defenders offer plenty of upside given the price point and have a proven history of handy scoring.

Obviously, I’ve given Williams the higher ranking in the 50 due to the fact I feel more confident in him being someone that I could keep for the year, at least in SuperCoach. That said, you could probably put the 4 in any order based on personal preference as they’re all offering supreme value and all highly capable fantasy footy options.

A fit and firing Zac Williams based on his recent years is a safe 80 average across the formats and I believe he should do the job again. Time will tell if what he does is enough to be a hold for the year, but for mine in SuperCoach, it’s certainly within the realms of possibility.

The only reason Zac isn’t on your watchlist is that your going a pure Guns & Rookies strategy this year. For mine he’s right in contention in all formats, but I do have him locked away in SuperCoach and AFLFantasy currently.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

If he were to average over 80 in all formats that’d place him inside the top 20 defenders in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam based on this seasons rankings, while for SuperCoach it would be around the top 40 mark. The thing is you won’t likely have to use a draft selection on him that high.

He may drift out to a D4 in some low-quality draft leagues, but I certainly wouldn’t be banking on landing him there. Given how much talk about him is happening in the fantasy community I think if you want to own him you’ll be parting with him in a selection as your D3.

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#35 Most Relevant: Brodie Smith

Read Time:3 Minute, 45 Second

The Crows dashing defender was desperately missed for most of 2018, and while for some coaches he’s placed on the ‘never again list’ for the coaches that do select him I can see him playing a valuable role.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Brodie Smith
Age: 27
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Defender

2018 Highest Score:
101 Vs GWS Giants (AFLFantasy)
129 Vs GWS Giants (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
77.5 (AFLFantasy)
87.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $332,500
AFLFantasy Price: $439,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $388,000

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

The Crows injury curse started in the qualifying final in 2017 against GWS, and it was in that game Brodie Smith injured his ACL and missed not only the rest of the Crows finals campaign but the vast majority of 2018 season. The positive of this for fantasy coaches is he’s priced cheaper than he’s been for several years and no longer does he have to be a top 10 averaging defender to select him.

It’s dangerous sometimes to go too many seasons back in averages, but it is worth reminding ourselves of his scoring pedigree. In 2014 a year he was honoured with All Australian selection he ended the year with a SuperCoach average of 93.5 including nine scores over 100 with 3 of them over 130. For AFLFantasy coaches that season he averaged 82 and hit the triple figure mark in 7 matches.

In his last full season at AFL level in 2017, he averaged 82 in SuperCoach scored on his average or higher in 10 matches including four scores over the hundred with the lowest a 108. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 79, 13 of those scores were above the average, and in 4 games he scored over the ton. In his final 11 games of the season, he averaged 93 in SuperCoach and 88 in AFLFantasy. For his two matches on the comeback trail from his ACL, he scored 54 and 101 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and a 46 and 129 in SuperCoach.

When fit and firing Brodie Smith is one of the most damaging run and carry players in the league let alone at the club. He possesses a booming and accurate right foot, and has plenty of speed to burn. In his game against the Giants, he showcased precisely what the footy club had missed all year with 29 disposals, six marks, six rebound 50s and a team-high 599 metres gained.

MY TAKE

Of more recent seasons he’s struggled to hit those fantasy defensive premium heights consistently of his All Australian season where he was a good fantasy premium. The key is, we’re not paying for him at the price tag of an 80-90 average defender, nor while a possibility especially in SuperCoach we are not likely to keep him. We are paying to own him at a considerably less price than what he’s consistently delivered and coaches that select him to have a straightforward strategy at play.

Brodie Smith is one of the best pure defensive stepping stones this season. He’s set to generate cash plenty of cash for you this year and also bank you a ton of points on the way through. The only real reason your choosing to not seriously consider him, even just as a JLT Community Series watchlist is because in 2019 you’ll be ignoring any stepping stone options in the backline and opt for only a Guns and Rookies approach.

For me, he’s in all my sides currently in every format, and it’ll take some effort to dislodge him. Indeed, we’ve got plenty of stepping stones to consider, but for me, I think he’s one of the best.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Another interesting selection based on his previous history of averages would be likely to place him as a D4 option in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam depending on the depth of your league squads and teams. For SuperCoach historically he’d go at about D3 but due to his injury, you may be able to get him a position later than that at D4.

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#36 Most Relevant: Pearce Hanley

Read Time:5 Minute, 26 Second

Hopefully we’ve learnt our lesson. Even though his name may be on the ‘never again’ list, Pearce offers supreme fantasy value IF he can get his body right.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Pearce Hanley
Age: 30
Club: Gold Coast Suns
Position: Defender

2018 Highest Score:
90 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy)
88 Vs Richmond (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
60.3 (AFLFantasy)
60.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $296,400
AFLFantasy Price: $414,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $345,200

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Pearce Hanley has always shown when up and running he’s a relevant fantasy footy option. During his time at the Brisbane Lions in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam between 2011 – 2016 his averages over this period of time never dipped below 80. While many years ago now his 2014 season was a thing of fantasy footy beauty where he averaged 98.5 and played 20 games. That year he averaged 98 and scored 8 times over the ton, including a phenomenal 182 against the club he now plays for. For SuperCoach his lowest seasonal average during this time was 82 had 2 seasons over 90 plus a monster in 2014 with a 103. During that year he had 10 scores over the hundred, 5 of them over 130 including a career best 191.

Since his trade to Gold Coast, his body has hindered his ability to consistently play and deliver the fantasy scores coaches would want. But when he has played, on the most part he’s scored. In 2017 from his 13 games in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam 8 times he scored over 70 including a 96, 101 & 121. For SuperCoach he averaged 77 and in his final 5 games of the season his lowest score was 87 and averaged 100.

While at the Suns he hasn’t hit the same fantasy footy high’s and consistency at Gold Coast that he did at Brisbane he doesn’t have to go 90 and play 20+ games to be relevant for you. At his price, he just needs to show that he can average about 80 over the opening 6-8 weeks of the year to do his job. Even last year despite only playing less than a handful of games he was still able to score well against the Tigers (88 AFLFantasy, 90 SuperCoach). Yes, it’s one game but he’s shown he can deliver scores like that. Can he get through a full season? Absolutely, don’t rule that out, but given his price point and potential scoring he doesn’t have to.

When fit and firing not only is he a proven fantasy footballer but he’s a sublime player to watch. Hanley posses a rare skills set that makes him a damaging player. His ability to burst away from the stoppages and opponents makes him difficult to catch while he is one of the most exquisite kicks in the competition.

The Suns have seen plenty of departures over the past few seasons and while they are certainly looking to the next generation of players to take the club forward there is still a need for his skill set let alone someone of his experience inside the Suns midfield unit. It would make plenty of sense for Gold Coast to play him as a wingman and use his high-quality ball by foot both for inside 50 entries and link ups across the ground. Doing this would make a significant impact on a side that needs class outside of the contest and also gives his fantasy scores a healthy boost.

MY TAKE

Yesterday we spoke about Dylan Roberton and quite possibly in the remainder of the list, we’ll look at some more stepping stone type defenders. The difficulty is it’s the risk in SuperCoach and DreamTeam increases to select more than one of these options, while it could be an inspired move, conversely it could be the end of the road by round 5. Astute coaches will find themselves balancing the variables of the scoring ceiling, basement scores, price increase, cash generation, bye structure and injury history to identify the correct player for them.

Like many players that have a history of solid scoring that now find themselves in fantasy footy purgatory, he’s got a history of missing games and getting injured rather frequently. That shouldn’t be an automatic deterrent but rather be a variable factor that coaches take on board.

While for some coaches he’s burned them with injury far too many times lately to even consider him, but we must remind ourselves of what purpose we’re selecting him. Is it a keeper? Frankly, while it’s a slight possibility I’d not be banking on it, rather you’ve got to set a realistic time frame when Hanley is likely to be moved on from your team. That needs to be fluid based on how he’s scoring, what other cash generators are doing in your side, which defensive premiums outside of your team have dipped in value early plus what players you want to target in other scoring lines. An extra positive for coaches is the Suns are in the final bye round so should his body allow him he’d be able to be held right through the byes and then traded to someone coming off their bye like an Alex Witherden or Jake Lloyd.

Track his preseason and role from the JLT Community series, I’ll find it difficult to not seriously have Hanley in at least one of the formats if he’s fit and spends plenty of time apart of the Suns midfield group. While there may be cheaper options he presents the most likely of all our defensive options to hit the big fantasy football scoring heights with some monster scoring games.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Given his recent history with injuries and also less than favourable averages I can see Hanley being available late in a lot of drafts. A fit and midfield role for Hanley would certainly equate to an 80 averaging defender which would place him at a D3 in most sides. That said, I believe you’ll be able to draft him in spot later than that.

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