Salary Cap Strategy

#49 Most Relevant | Tom Doedee

An ACL Injury ruined his 2019 season just minutes into the year. Thanks to a tasty discount, this young Crow could be the perfect stepping stone in 2020.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Doedee
Age: 22
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Defender

2019 Highest Score: 
38 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
56 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

2019 Average: 
38 (AFLFantasy)
56 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $273,700
AFLFantasy Price: $403,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $247,200

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

After being selected in the 2015 AFL draft, Tom Doedee had to bide his time on the Adelaide Crows list. The departure of Jake Lever after 2017 cleared the way for Tom, and he went on on debut in 2018 and had a stunning season.

That year Doedee made himself at home in the Adelaide back six. A combination of being near impossible to beat when marked on-on-one in a marking contest. He’s shown elite intercept skills and scary quick closing speed has made him a fan favourite quickly. In 2018 he averaged 18 disposals, five marks per game, 3 rebound 50’s, three tackles, two score involvements and over seven intercept possessions per game.

From a SuperCoach perspective, he posted eleven scores of 82 or more including five tons with three of them over 110. That year he finished the season averaging 82.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he scored above 80 in eight different matches including two scores over 100. He finished the season averaging 73.

Adelaide’s hopes for the 2019 season were dealt a significant blow in round one, with Tom Doedee injuring his ACL and ending his season.

Injuries should never hope upon anyone; however, for the fantasy footy community, there is a silver lining. With long term, injuries come discounts and with discounts comes to value for money selection.

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MY TAKE

Missing the vast majority of last season has meant that Tom Doedee has been given a significant discount and is priced at under $300,000 in SuperCoach and under $250,000 DreamTeam. As a reference point, he’s only about $50,000 – $70,000 more expensive than the top-priced rookie in Matt Rowell.

At this price point, you are often picking players who are unproven scorers, lacking in job security for their AFL side or not yet shown they can cut it at the elite level. However, this isn’t the case when it comes to Tom Doedee.

At well under $300,000 in DT/SC and $403k in AFLFantasy he should be looked upon favourably even coming back off an ACL. As a point of contrast 12 months ago Adelaide teammate Brodie Smith was one of the most popular stepping stones in our backlines last year. At the start of last year, he was priced at $332,500 (SuperCoach), $439,000 (AFLFantasy) and $388,000 (DreamTeam.)

Before the season, Brodie’s past 64 games was at an average of 76 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 78 in SuperCoach. With Doedee, he’s priced cheaper than Smith last year in all forms and has a comparable scoring average.

Everything is currently on track for Doedee to return from his Christmas break and commence contact work at training. At this stage, he and the club are confident of playing in the Marsh Preseason games. What impact does the knee injury have on his scoring?

Unless you can time travel, you can not claim to know the impact it will have on him. However, what we can do is look at a comparable player who’s recently come off an ACL and see the effect it had for them. That player is former Crow Jake Lever. Here’s a breakdown of his scoring for AFLFantasy and SuperCoach both pre and post ACL.

AFLFantasy
AVG PRE ACL		AFLFantasy
AVG ACL SEASON		AFLFantasy
AVG POST ACL		DIFFERENTIAL
AVG PRE & POST
68.259.859.8– 8.4
SuperCoach
AVG PRE ACL		SuperCoach
AVG ACL SEASON		SuperCoach
AVG POST ACL		DIFFERENTIAL
AVG PRE & POST
796970.7– 8.3

The scoring drop is common for most talls coming back off ACL injuries. The range gap is between 5-20 points for players when you look at names like Jon Patton, Matt Scharnberg, Taylor Walker and Nic Naitanui.

At his price point, he’s a stepping stone to get you quickly to a bottomed-out premium if you need a fast mover. Ideally, if he’s scoring well we’d be a final defender upgrade with the Crows having the last multi bye week. He’s the perfect candidate to hold until the round 14 bye and then upgrade if required to a premium defender coming off the bye. Additionally, especially in SuperCoach if he can average back around the 80 markers, then he’s a perfect D7 bench cover if needed.

In reality, the gap (if any) from what he did pre-injury as opposed to what your forecast he’ll deliver will ultimately determine if you select him or not.
For SuperCoach he finds himself in my starting squad, and it’ll take some doing to remove him from there even if he does have the projected scoring dip.

DRAFT DECISION

If he can back up a similar average this year as to what he delivered in 2018 then for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’ll be a bench filler at best in deeper draft leagues. However, in SuperCoach leagues he could provide great value on selection point and can fill one of your final two defensive spots on-field if things go well.

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#50 Most Relevant | Blake Acres

For years Blake Acres has shown he has the potential to breakout. At a new club is 2020 finally his time? Let’s kick off the 2020 fantasy footy season of the 50 Most Relevant.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Blake Acres
Age: 24
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Midfield/Forward

2019 Highest Score: 
96 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
105 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

2019 Average: 
67.5 (AFLFantasy)
70.7 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $384,400
AFLFantasy Price: $501,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $488,200

Blake Acres is a new recruit for the Fremantle Dockers. PIctured is Blake at the Dockers HQ in Cockburn. Picture: Justin Benson-Cooper The West Australian

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Long-time players of SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam will be familiar with the potential of Blake Acres. After being drafted at pick 19 in the 2013 AFL draft, the West Australian native has shown glimpses of his potential.

As a junior, the versatile modern-day midfielder drew comparisons early in his career to Sydney’s Josh Kennedy and Adelaide’s Bryce Gibbs. What makes Acres such a damaging player is his versatility. He posses the ability to play as a ball-winning inside midfielder, outside runner and even a third tall forward target.

At St Kilda, Blake Acres was denied opportunities to play significant minutes as a midfielder. He’s been stuck behind the likes of Seb Ross, Jack Steele, Dan Hannebery, Jack Billings and to a lesser extent Luke Dunstan all getting a role ahead of him.

On the occasions, he was allowed to use his hulking frame through the midfield his fantasy numbers showed plenty of promise. In 2018 his opening five scores in SuperCoach were 144, 90, 97, 92 & 107 averaging 106. He finished the SuperCoach season averaging 88. 

In AFLFantasy it was 124, 92, 77, 83 and 100 with a five-game average of 95.2. At the end of 2018, he managed a total of twelve matches and averaged 81.

Across last season he continued to show promise with AFLFantasy scores of 96 (Melbourne), 93 (Hawthorn), 92 (Melbourne) and 91 (Carlton.) These numbers were more superior in SuperCoach with a 105 (Hawthorn), 103 (Melbourne), 102 (Carlton) and 99 (Western Bulldogs).

Sometimes your key strength (which for Acres is his versatility) can go against you. Instead of being allowed to find a home inside the St Kilda midfield he was used by the coaching staff to plug gaps in the side. This made it difficult for him to find a rhythm in a roll as well as impact his fantasy football output.

Thankfully for prospective owners, we have two positive out of this. Firstly the move to Fremantle could not have been to a more perfect club who are needing to bolster the midfield. Secondly, he’ll be priced significantly cheaper than what he’s capable of delivering. In AFLFantasy Blake starts the 2020 season priced 13 points less expensive in contrast to his 2018 season. For SuperCoach it’s 18 points below his personal best season.

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MY TAKE

Fremantle has done the opposite of Acres firmer club St Kilda. The club has allowed established players to depart and will head to the draft to top up the list. With the departures of Brad Hill and Ed Langdon, outside midfield opportunities have arisen at the club. Lachie Neale departed twelve months ago, and David Mundy is a further year older. The Dockers must look to the future stars of the club, and Blake Acres must take the opportunity in front of him.

Andrew Brayshaw and Adam Cerra could be given large amounts of responsibility in the midfield to support skipper Nat Fyfe. Michael Walters should also move into an even more dominant midfield role too. Given damaging small forward Liam Henry was taken in the draft.

Acres could be a perfect fit inside the contest for the Dockers. If he can get his body right, he could be a genuine fantasy candidate if he maintains his forward status again.

Role in the team is the key to his relevance. If played as a midfielder (inside or out) this he must be on the Preseason watchlist. Best case scenario is he’s a keeper. However, to make him an excellent selection, he needs to go 85 or higher in AFLFantasy and 90+ in SuperCoach. As always with stepping stone and breakout candidates, you need to save a trade as an upgrade. It is just in case they don’t deliver on the best-case scenario.

Fremantle has the week off in round thirteen, meaning he’s a potentially strong candidate to run into the byes before upgrading him. It’s not a pretty listing given that Geelong, Essendon, Port Adelaide, West Coast, St Kilda and Brisbane are the teams coming off the round twelve bye. That said you could target someone like Devon Smith, Gary Ablett, Jack Steven, Jack Darling and maybe even Robbie Gray.

There is plenty of upside about Blake, but coaches need to go into this selection with eyes wide open. As he enters into his seventh AFL season, he’s yet to play more than 19 games in a single season. Injuries have been cruel to him with no continuous injury pattern occurring.

He also has come from a side with one of the shallowest midfield groups, where he was unable to secure a permanent position. He’s no certainty at Fremantle just like he was at St Kilda.

I’m keeping a sharp eye on his preseason, however, right now he’s a strong candidate to start in my AFLFantasy side and consideration in the other formats should I look for a breakout candidate at F3/F4.

DRAFT DECISION

His draft range will be wide given were people rate him and when your draft is held. The key in your draft is being really clear in your ranking of him and making sure it’s based on your average projection not on what he did last year.

For some, that’ll put him in the high 80’s and others he’ll be a super late-round pick up. Personally I’d feel comfortable taking him as a forward 4 position knowing that he could either breakout and become your F2.

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What is the 50 Most Relevant?

And so it begins! Another fantasy football preseason filled with optimism, hope and the possibilities that in 2020 maybe this year will be your year for fantasy success. 

Between now and when the season opens, and lockouts commence you will consider hundreds of players, trial thousands of combinations and probably tinker with your fantasy football side multiple times per day. Here at the Coaches Panel, our desire is never to tell you what to do. Instead, it’s to give you useful information for you to make informed decisions about your side. 

What makes a player fantasy football relevant?

It’s several factors, including but not limited to: starting price, scoring ceiling, scoring consistency, what position they hold, and the opportunities that may have become available during the offseason. These are just some of the reasons a player is relevant in salary cap formats. 

The list isn’t about predicting the top 50 averaging players for the year, far from it. Instead, it’s about looking at all players, across all salary cap formats to see who could help us achieve our goal of fantasy footy success.

The goal of the 50 most relevant and fantasy footy content, in general, this early in the preseason is about doing the research, having open-minded conversations and seeing the potential possibilities at our fingertips.

Too often as fantasy coaches, we can become entrenched in a certain way of thinking and don’t enter into a new season with an open mind. Whether it by being ‘burnt’ by a player previously or having a strategy fail. By closing our mind we close ourselves to possibilities. Great coaches always consider different players, alternative approaches and new ways of playing the game. Who knows, we may find ourselves missing out on the very manoeuvre that could be the difference in you winning the title.

When Does it Start?

Starting January 1st, and then for the following 49 days, I’d like to invite you to join with me as I share with you who I believe are the 50 most relevant players in one combined universal list. 

The countdown will include a daily article, podcast as well as a drafting range projection for both single-season and keeper leagues. And if you wish to get early access to 50 Most Relevant podcasts, then you can do that by joining our Patreon. 

I look forward to spending the next few months discussing fantasy footy and can’t wait to hear about your thoughts on who I believe are the 50 Most Relevant players for the coming season. 

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Throughout the countdown some players you’ll agree with, others you won’t, and that’s OK. This is a subjective list, but one that I hope encourages you as a fantasy coach. Other members of the panel and I would love to chat about all forms of fantasy with you. 

Have your say at our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

AFLFantasy Discounts and Prices for 2020

The team at AFLFantasy HQ have started to reveal the AFLFantasy Discounts and Prices for 2020. Take a look at some of the players that you may be considering this AFL preseason.

On the most recent AFLFantasy podcast from The Traders, they revealed the magic number (7418), which is what you multiply against players averages to get there starting price. Here are some of the players set to get big discounts in 2020.

AFLFantasy | The Discounts

One of the most anticipated prices reveals is Brownlow Medalist Tom Mitchell (MID). Tom has received the full 30% discount and will enter the season priced at $671,000. After missing the past two seasons, Carlton defender Sam Docherty will set coaches back just $563,000. As a price point reference that will see him priced in the range of players who averaged 76 like Brayden Maynard and Michael Hurley.

Former GWS Giants skipper Callan Ward (MID) may be of interest as an early-season stepping stone. He’s been given a 27% discount and will start the year priced at $539,000. Before his ACL injury, you have to go back to 2011 for the last time he didn’t average over 90.

Devon Smith (MID/FWD) receives a small 9% discount, but this will not be on his 2019 average (79.4), but rather his 2018 average of 106. He’ll enter the 2020 season priced in the high 90’s averages, based on that he doesn’t present significant value as a starter so at this early stage he’s an upgrade target.

Keep an eye on the health of St Kilda defender Dylan Roberton. He featured in last years 50 most relevant series and before succumbing to further health complications he was already one to consider. However, another missed season has meant he’ll be priced at a bargain of $327,000. For a reference point that’s just $57,000 more than what Matt Rowell (MID) will be priced. Not a bad price for a guy who averaged 90 In 2017.

If you’re considering a cheaper ruck in your starting lines, some coaches might be tempted to start a discounted ruck. Coaches might consider starting either or both of Nic Naitanui ($471,000) or new Giant Sam Jacobs ($514,000).

AFL Fantasy | More Price Reveals

Fantasy coaches keen on the Angus Brayshaw (MID) rollercoaster will be outlaying $653,000. Lance Franklin (FWD) will be priced at his lowest average (70.5) in over a decade at $523,000.

After a career-best season in 2019 and averaging 122 Brodie Grundy (RUC) is the most expensive player next year starting at $906,000. Lachie Whitfield (MID/FWD) will be the most expensive forward this year starting at $844,000.

AFLFantasy | Launch Date

Next week on the AFL website The Traders will commence club by club price reveals starting with the Gold Coast Suns. These will run until the format opens around the last week of January.

What about DreamTeam & SuperCoach?

Both formats are just days away from releasing the Team Pickers. For those who purchased the assistant coach, you’ll be able to start creating your teams and trialling different strategies shortly. For the rest of us, we’ll be waiting a further 30-40 days before both formats open.

What the AFL fixture means for SuperCoach and AFL Fantasy players

The 2020 AFL Fixture has been released and for coaches who play AFL Fantasy, SuperCoach or DreamTeam it’s another step closer to the preseason getting into full swing. For a breakdown by round or club of the fixture, you can find it here.

For the fantasy coach, the fixture is crucial in a variety of areas. It can determine which premiums you start with and which you don’t. It can decide which lines you load op on premiums and can even help with the selection of rookies. The fixture will play a role in shaping the upgrade plans across the season and even in which priority order.

Whether your an experienced or relatively new fantasy football coach the fixture is a huge factor in what you do in 2020.

The Multi Bye Rounds


Round 12 often provides us with the premiums we target as upgrade targets during the multi bye rounds. It seems like we’ll have plenty of midfield options to choose from with Andrew Gaff, Elliot Yeo, Mitch Duncan, Lachie Neale, Zach Merrett and Seb Ross among the premiums among the possible candidates.

Round 13 provides us with some possible issues to navigate in both our defensive lines and midfield. Down back Bachar Houli, Jake Lloyd, Jack Crisp and Sam Docherty lead the charge of big-name defenders on the bye. Possible more unique picks in Christian Salem, Nic Newman and Connor Blakely will also have a rest. 

In the midfield, Nat Fyfe, Adam Treloar, Patrick Cripps and Clayton Oliver are the most notable absent premiums. Added to the list would be Steele Sidebottom, Dustin Martin, Dion Prestia, Luke Parker and Josh Kennedy.

If you are going to go against the grain and not start both Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn, you will have one less issue to deal with in round 13 with both premiums missing that week. For those considering value options like Tim English, Sam Jacobs, they do make potential stepping stones given they don’t have a rest until the following week. Both of these options could then make seamless trades to one of the big rucks that you don’t own. Other round 14 ruck candidates include Reilly O’Brien, Todd Goldstein and Jarrod Witts.

Round 14 presents a potential gap in our premium midfield options all on the bye. Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio, Tim Taranto, Lachie Whitfield, Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli, Matt Crouch, Brad Crouch and Tom Mitchell are all missing. Thankfully, given the trading plans, coaches should be making, any potential pain should be offset with upgrades made around this.

There is the potential for further adjustments and planning given we do not have full visibility on the complete positions list. Who does or doesn’t gain an additional position will impact our defensive and forward lines. Furthermore, on what our overall starting squad and trading plans will be.

Thursday Night Captains

With the current rolling lockout for SuperCoach and DreamTeam, the Thursday night fixture has minimal impact. However, for an AFLFantasy coach, it presents you with the opportunity to have two chances of getting a good captaincy score. Nine teams during the season will have the opportunity to kick off the round.

The opening five rounds of the year commence with Thursday night games. Carlton, Essendon, Collingwood and Richmond all have two games while Brisbane and Adelaide also have one. The Tigers games are in the opening two rounds of the year so players such as Dion Prestia and Dustin Martin could well prove popular starting squad options. They could move quickly to an Essendon midfielder like Zach Merrett where they play in round three and five.

Essendon also has a further two Thursday night clashes in round 13 & 16. However, the big winner post-bye for Thursday night games is Hawthorn. In round 15 they play Brisbane and follow it up with a match against Essendon. The obvious VC candidate for those games is Tom Mitchell.

Collingwood also has two Thursday night matches in rounds 2 and 4. Brodie Grundy, Adam Treloar is among several Pies that coaches will be VC candidates