Tag: Cam Rayner

10 Players Unlucky to Miss the 50 Most Relevant in 2022

Every season after I conclude the 50 Most Relevant, we love to look back at some of the unlucky players to miss the countdown. Here are 10 Players Who Missed The 50 Most Relevant

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Isaac Heeney

Timing is everything in the creation of the fifty most relevant. There is always some fluidity about the names and the ordering. However, as the preseason continues, adding and dropping certain players from the 50 is near impossible. For example, once the news of Issac Heeney being moved to a primary midfield role had been established, it was too late to add him over the top of others inside the top twenty or twenty-five.

Historically Henry has multiple years across the formats of averaging in the low to mid 90’s. With a more defined midfield, role coaches should be expecting that as the minimum return upon investment. If his scoring matches that of other recent Swans midfielders in Callum Mills, then we might have a candidate for one of the essential starting squad selections of the year. With the news of Mitch Duncan’s calf injury, coaches that previously couldn’t fit him in now have a straightforward pathway to add him without blowing up an existing structure.

Patrick Cripps

Just two years ago, Patrick Cripps was coming off the back of averaging 117 in SuperCoach and 101 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. Entering into 2022, he’s priced twenty points per game off that in AFLFantast/DreamTeam and nearly 35 in SuperCoach. With the news of Sam Walsh’s injury and him missing the opening few rounds, many could rightly presume that the Carlton skipper’s scoring will default to his 2016-2019 era.

The good news around Crippa is he’s as fit as he’s been in years. The challenge is that we’ve got players like Matt Crouch, Elliot Yeo, and Caleb Serong priced similarly in the formats. Where you rank Patrick alongside them will ultimately determine if he’s a viable option for you or not.

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Cam Rayner

Value is the name of the game, and across all formats, the potential value in Cam Rayner is exceptional. Across the formats, he’s priced as a genuine stepping stone option where his selection can have a dual impact. He provides a solid cash generation avenue while also delivering points on the field that are significantly stronger than the cash cow options.

He’s another victim of timing and his opportunity to be placed in the 50. With Rayner returning off an ACL, the club had until recently downplayed just how well he’d rehabilitated his knee and were playing a cautiously optimistic approach. However, track watchers and those within the club have no longer water down the expectations. It seems likely finally his talent, body and mind are all in sync to deliver him a stunning season. The final cherry on the top was when Chris Fagan said Rayner was ‘back to normal regarding his body and will have a significant role to play in the Lions midfield. Many have decided to lock him into their side with that news, and understandably so.

Nick Daicos

Much has been made about the fantasy pedigree of Nick Daicos, with many AFL recruiters speaking of him in the same vein as Matt Rowell or Sam Walsh. In his five NAB league games last year in SuperCoach, he scored 177, 166, 145, 169 & 138. In AFLFantasay, he averaged 136 over these games and was going at 35.8 disposals per game. In short, Daicos is a ball magnet and will be a regular feature of our fantasy teams once he reaches his potential.

He’s already part of the Magpies best 22. That’s no knock on the Magpies list, but rather an exclamation on how good a player he is already. The club has already given plenty of preseason love to him and hyped up his elite running patterns and ball use. Recently, magpie midfield coach Brendon Bolton told The Age that Nick would play a split role between the midfield and halfback. With in-season DPP gains now standard across all formats, I suspect we’ll see Daaicos become a MID/DEF by round six if the mooted role eventuates.

Rowan Marshall

The question isn’t when will Rowan Marshall fulfil his fantasy potential, but rather when. Some might even argue he already has. Back in 2019, when he played the clear #1 ruckmen, he averaged 99 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 110 in SuperCoach. Last year in the six games he played without Paddy Ryder, he averaged 103.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 109.3 in SuperCoach. With many unsure who will be a top-two ruck in 2022, Marshall looms as a potential option should the patron get passed along in 2022, especially if he gets the majority share of the ruck minutes.

Jy Simpkin

One key thing that held Jy Simpkin back from being an option in the fifty most relevant is can he average 110+? In his 2020 breakout year as a forward, he became one of the best buys for the season. Simpkin had an average in the mid-’90s across the formats. For example, in his opening ten matches of 2021, he averaged 84 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 88 in SuperCoach. However, in the final en matches, he averaged 104.5 and had just one score under 90, while in SuperCoach, he averaged 104.8 and scored seven tons.

A 105 average is acceptable if your starting price point is an 80-85 range, not 95. However, to make him a worthwhile selection, he must close the gap between his average ceiling and those of the best premium midfielders in the game. I think a 110+ is well within his capabilities; the key will be to work his way through the tags and defensive attention from opposition coaches. If he can, then he’s every chance of knocking the door down to be a top-level premium.

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Charlie Curnow

It feels like an eternity ago, but when Charlie Curnow was drafted at the end of 2015, he was sold as someone who could become the most dominant tall in the AFL. His athleticism, strength, and contested marking were on full display in his first three seasons. However, Since 2019 a combination of injuries has seen him play just fifteen games.

Back in 2017 & 2018, he averaged low 70’s in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and mid-high 70’s in SuperCoach. From a price point in SuperCoach, he priced at $23,000 more than Jason Horne-Francis. In reality, he’s priced as a cash cow and given he’s best 22 and has a history of going 70+ for multiple years; it’s an easy selection. In AFLFaantasy/DreamTeam, he’s priced approximately at $350k, and while he presents value at his price point, it might not fit everyone’s structure. Regardless, he should still be a viable stepping stone candidate for those that jump on if fit.

Jason Horne-Francis

I rarely add players who’ve just been drafted into the 50 most relevant. Barring Matt Rowell and Sam Walsh, no other new draftee has ever made the countdown. Both of these guys and their debut seasons scoring have revolutionized the way people select cash cows. Previously, coaches had paid for the job security more than the scoring pedigree, but now it seems that these high-end midfielders are delivering both earlier in their AFL career.

The potential of what Jason Horne-Francis could be is scary. When playing against men last year in the SANFL preliminary final, he had 24 disposals, 11 clearances, three goals and scored 160 in SuperCoach and 112 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. North Melbourne has indicated he’ll play a MID/FWD split, with the latter more likely to be the heavier percentage. But, again, much like Nick Daicos above, the in-season DPP gain would only be of further benefit to coaches already thinking he’s worth spending up for.

A possible heavy forward time might cap some of his scoring ceilings, but he genuinely looks safe in the Roos best 22 and wouldn’t shock me if he pumped out a few 80+ scores early. The kid looks a beast!

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Dylan Stephens

Another example of how formats all handle the salary caps differently. As a result, a player like Dylan Stephens, regardless of his potential, cannot be considered in AFLFantasy. When you’re priced at $526,000 but Matt Rowell is $62k cheaper, you just can’t select him. It’s a different story in the other formats where he’ll set you back $167,800 in SuperCoach and $282,700 for DreamTeam.

The departure of Jordan Dawson to Adelaide opens up space on the Sydney wing, and it’s in that role that as a junior and the SANFL, he thrived and won plenty of his share of the outside ball. In SuperCoach & DreamTeam, he needs to be on the watchlist for how he tracks in the preseason games because if he gets the role and the share of the ball Dawson does, then we need to consider him seriously.

Tarryn Thomas

Over the past twelve months, it’s become impossible not to like what you’ve seen from North Melbourne in this rebuild. Plenty of attention has been put on recruits like Jason Horne-Francis, Tom Powell, and to a lesser extent, Will Phillips. However, not enough has been made of Tarryn Thomas. The classy first-round pick had a slow start to the season, playing predominantly as a forward. However, between rounds one – nine, he averaged 32% of centre bounce attendances, 15 possessions, and a 66 in AFLFantasy and 68 in SuperCoach.

It was from round ten that the role change hit, and as a result, we saw a dramatic increase in all elements. His CBA’s went up to an average of 49%. While his possessions jumped up to 20 per game, and in AFLFantasy, he averaged 92.5 and 96.7 in SuperCoach. All the noise coming from the Roos this preseason is that they expect to maintain this 50/50 MID/FWD split, and as a result, his scoring could push the top ten forwards.

Watch his role in the community series, but keep in mind which Roo midfielders might be missing. Otherwise, the splits might be misleading.

Marsh Community Series Review | Blues Vs Lions

The Blues took on the Lions in a scrappy affair at Ikon Park with both sides keen to snag a win after falling short last time out. It was a tale of two halves with Carlton looking exceptional for most of the first half before running out of steam and being completely overrun by Brisbane who went on to post a handsome 45 point win. It was a modest game fantasy wise with Cripps the only player on the ground to have more than 25 disposals. But there’s still plenty to unpack as we start finalising our squads for round 1.

Patrick Cripps: Started on fire with 11 touches in the first quarter and was in the thick of it throughout but didn’t look his usual dynamic self. To really elevate himself in the fantasy world (he’s already done it in Supercoach), he needs to straighten up his kick to handball ratio. This game was a great example of this as he had 30 touches on the night but only 9 kicks. He has another gear to step into and we’ll see that Thursday night in a couple of weeks against the Tigers.

Sam Docherty: What did we need to see? Looks fit, tick. Taking kick ins, tick. Plenty of game time (81%), tick. Embracing his love of playing kick to kick, tick. I was having 2017 flashbacks at times in that first half when Docherty was +6’ing his way all over the back half. Finished with 21 touches and 10 marks and is the biggest lock in the game. Don’t over think it, pick him!

Ed Curnow: Has been a gutsy soldier for the Blues for years now and thankfully his days as a forward look certain to be over under Teague. Was solid early and spent parts of the night running with Neale. Just 20 disposals but 7 marks and a goal make his fantasy scores look better. One for Drafts.

Sam Walsh: I honestly cannot believe this guy is only 19 years old, the way he moves out there and how hard he works, you would swear he’s a seasoned veteran. Started hot with 9 touches in the first quarter but went very cold in the second. Finished with the second most touches on the field with 25 and everything he did looked good. Maybe won’t become elite in the fantasy world this season but we’re going to love selecting him over the next 10 years.

Paddy Dow: Another Carlton kid that looks excellent whenever he goes near it. He had modest numbers tonight and is still a mile off fantasy relevance, but he has a huge future.

Jack Martin: A fantastic acquisition for the Blues with his class and precision disposal. He had a great time roaming up and down the flanks all night recording 23 touches with 9 marks from just 68% game time. Nice unique for the forward line but there’s possibly better value on offer.

Jack Newnes: Potentially another handy pick up for the Blues as he will bring some experience after 8 years at St.Kilda. He tried hard in this game and was involved throughout with 20 touches but there were a lot of bad ones. He also didn’t lay a tackle and gave away 3 free kicks. I think his disposal was so poor that we won’t see him in the seniors in round 1.

Marc Murphy: Did his part with 5 kicks and 10 handballs from 60% game time. Even though he finished last season with a bang, I’m expecting his numbers to decline as Carlton continue to give more responsibility to the kids.

Nic Newman: I didn’t notice him a great deal, but his numbers weren’t terrible with 19 disposals and 8 marks. I didn’t think Docherty’s return would impact him too greatly as they have a shared love of playing kick to kick but I’m not so sure now. He was quiet in Marsh 1 too.

Charlie Cameron: Touted as having the potential to become the greatest small forward of all time by someone who would know, Eddie Betts, Cameron looks like picking up right where he left off in his breakout season last year. This was a seriously good performance with a stat line to back it up, 21 touches, 7 marks, 8 tackles and 5 goals. Despite this, the reality is he is a small forward and they scarcely find themselves in our fantasy squads. Enjoy watching him this year but don’t pick him.

Dayne Zorko: A mature performance from the captain. He was well held for most of the first half but slowly got himself into the game. He didn’t have huge numbers with 23 disposals, but they were quality and with his 6 tackles and 2 goals, he was one of the most prolific players in the game and a huge catalyst for the turnaround on the scoreboard.

Lachie Neale: A far cry from his 47 disposal beast mode game in Marsh 1 but was still important at times. He had just the 23 touches this time as he dealt with some mild tagging throughout the night and even spent a little bit of time deep forward. I wouldn’t stress if you’re an owner though as I think Brisbane were just experimenting with ways for him to deal with the expected tags he will cop this year. He ain’t no Dusty or Fyfe though and he’ll be playing pure mid in the regular season.

Jarrod Berry: Did some really nice things and looks to improve again in his 4th season. He looked really strong over the ball and used his big body well to take some great marks around the ground. He kicked a couple of goals to help cap a fine performance.

Hugh McCluggage: Like Berry, looks set to improve again in what is also his 4th season. He was the Lions best player in the first half and arguably kept them in the game playing wing and around the ball. Had 22 touches and a goal in 74% game time but his impact was greater than the numbers suggest.

Alex Witherden: On the watch list as a potential break out after a surprisingly poor 2019. Unfortunately, this game and his Marsh series have done nothing to tempt me and I don’t think you should be tempted either. He was largely unsighted taking just 2 marks for the game (70% game time) and looked frustrated as teammates constantly over looked him, denying him any easy touches in the process. Perhaps his first two seasons were merely a tease. It’s just a shame, that’s all.

Brandon Starcevich: There were hardly any rookies of interest in this game but Starcevich looked excellent. He only had 11 touches but everything he did was so clean that he must be a chance for round 1. Like McCluggage, he was important for the Lions early in the game against the tide. With Brisbane’s list looking very healthy from an injury perspective, there’s a tight squeeze for spots but Starcevich may have done enough to get a spot.

Deven Robertson: Not sure he gets a gig in round 1 but he looked good when he got his chance with 11 touches and 5 tackles from 63% game time.

Grant Birchall: The wily veteran should have a similarly strong impact at the Lions as Luke Hodge did and is at an extremely tantalising price. He had 15 touches and kicked a trademark raking long goal, but I don’t think we can trust his body enough for our fantasy sides this year.

Cam Rayner: There’s been murmurings about Rayner bulking up and potentially breaking out this year. It’s a no from me. The kid just isn’t there yet.

AFLFantasy Preseason Watchlist | Brisbane Lions

It was a phenomenal season from the Lions in 2019. AS the enter a new season can others join the fantasy relevance of Dayne Zorko and Lachie Neale?

BREAKOUT: Hugh McCluggage – $678,000 (MID)

McCluggage was impressive in his 3rd season, almost scored himself an All Australian jacket playing 23 of the Lions 24 games and only dropping below 80 on 3 occasions. The big thing we hope he can find in 2020 is some ceiling, consistently landing scores between 80-100 but struggling to go on with it. He did finish the season with scores of 125 and 122, then 90 and 93 in the finals, so hopefully that is a little sign of what is to come.

WATCH: Cameron Rayner – $334,00 (FWD)

Former Number 1 Draft Pick, has spent his first two seasons earning his stripes as a deep forward pocket which has seen his numbers drop massively from the large scores he was posting in his junior days. Priced at an average of just 45, he is coming off a very non-fantasy friendly season where he genuinely posted two scores under 20 and only went over 70 once.

However, Cameron has been training with the midfield and working on his tank. Don’t expect massive numbers from the young star, but if he does find himself on some more midfield rotations he could work out to be an almost rookie priced cash cow

ROOKIE: Brandon Starcevich – $170,000 (MID)

While you could also push a case for prized 2019 first-round pick, Ely Smith, all the news coming out of Brisbane early this season is Starcevich is primed and ready to break out and deliver. Was pick 18 back in the 2017 Draft but has had a troublesome run with injuries, finally getting his chance to put in a full pre-season and is taking it with both hands.

He averages the 16 disposals a game in the NEAFL so don’t expect monster numbers, but he is a contested inside mid who likes to tackle, if Ellis Yolmen isn’t fit early then Starcevich should hopefully get some early games

UNDERDOG: Cameron Ellis Yolmen – $652,000 (MID)

We actually caught up with Cameron a few weeks ago over the Christmas break and found out he had, unfortunately, had a few setbacks on the track already. Was on both of our lists early on in the piece, at his best he can be a damaging tall inside mid, who finds the ball, tackles hard and has some x-factor. Unfortunately, his body has let him down over the journey, but if he can get it all together at Brisbane we believe he would really fit well in their midfield set up alongside Zorko, Neale and Lyons.

He is awkwardly priced at an average of 87.9, but he showed his fantasy potential in Round 10 last year against Fremantle where he collected 30 disposals and had 10 tackles for 134 points. If he is picked Round 1 he could still be a very handy point of difference, remembering Lincoln McCarthy managed to play every game at Brisbane last year after an interrupted pre-season also.

JLT Players Of Interest: Brisbane Vs Hawthorn

The Hawks sent a very young side up to Morton Bay to take on the Brisbane Lions in hot conditions. For fantasy coaches, we learnt plenty from this match.

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Hawthorn

James Cousins

With Liam Shiels, Jaeger O’Meara and Isaac Smith missing he (along with Worpel) Cousins was one of the more ‘experienced’ of the Hawks midfield. He picked up 29 touches, the majority of which were uncontested at 79% efficiency. As a slightly inflated cash cow, he does present value and should be someone we watch his scoring and role when the midfield leaders return this week.

James Sicily

Whether it be because they lacked forward options with no Jack Gunston or Jarryd Roughead or Clarko was experimenting we saw James Sicily spend considerable time forward during the game. He was also given time in the midfield and even time in his usual role down back.

Don’t read too much into this just yet; instead, it only causes for concern if in next weeks match with the experienced players he plays multiple roles only then should you consider not starting with him.

James Worpel

Listed with forward eligibility but playing predominantly midfield ‘Worpedo’ gave current owners enough confidence to suggest he’s capable of scoring well as a stepping stone candidate. Like Cousins wait to see his exact role once clear best 22 midfielders return this week, but so far it’s a promising sign for his fantasy relevance.

Jack Scrimshaw

Started slowly but worked his way into the game nicely across half back. His teammates loved getting the ball into his hands especially rebounding from defensive 50. With no Grant Birchall early in the season, he should be given some early opportunities and be a worthy defensive cash cow to consider.

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Brisbane Lions

Lachie Neale

If you were big on Neale before today, then nothing in today’s match should have dinted that confidence in him. Neale was the dominant midfielder in the game, and given the inexperience of the Hawks midfield, he needed to. Earlier in the preseason, I wrote about Lachie Neale, and nothing in the game changed my view that he’s a top 10 midfielder in SuperCoach, but won’t be in AFLFantasy.

Hugh McCluaggage

In time this kid is going to be something special! As a junior, he often was compared to Collingwood Captain Scott Pendlebury, and we saw moments of that evident in this game. Damaging inside the contest and precise on the out ‘Suitcase’ rounds out the Lions midfield perfectly. I’m not sure I could go there in salary cap formats, but it drafts and daily fantasy he’ll present great value early in the season.

Alex Witherden

He’s one of the most hyped defensive premiums of the preseason, and if you were big on him before the JLT, then we saw nothing that should dampen that enthusiasm. Played the same role from his previous seasons and looks set to push into the top 6 averaging defenders of 2019. I wrote about Alex earlier in the preseason here.

Cam Rayner

Noticeably bigger and a full preseason has shown the benefits in his fitness base. We saw him get some limited midfield opportunities, but it was inside 50 he created multiple headaches for the Hawthorn defenders. He’s going to win the Lions 2-3 games this year of his brilliance and certainly bumps his seasonal average up. Whether it’s enough to make him fantasy relevant time will tell.

Archie Smith

Was given the first opportunity to lead the Lions ruck division and ended up being the leading ruckman on the ground in terms of hitouts (25). While the combination of Pittonet/Ceglar isn’t the most dominant to come up against Archie more than held his own, for those looking for a cheap R3 he’s certainly one to keep an eye on if he can keep holding Stefan Martin at bay.