Tag: Geelong Cats

#18 Most Relevant | Tom Stewart

Diving into the AFLFantasy & SuperCoach prowess of Geelong’s Tom Stewart, we analyze his standout performances and consider his role evolution ahead of the 2024 AFL season

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Tom Stewart is widely recognized as one of the AFL’s premier defenders, known for his exceptional ability to read the play and intercept opposition attacks. His calmness characterizes his style of play under pressure, precise decision-making, and elite marking ability, allowing him to disrupt opponents’ forward entries effectively.

Stewart’s skill set is complemented by his excellent use of the ball, ensuring he can launch counter-attacks with accurate disposals once he takes possession. Defensively, he is robust in one-on-one contests, leveraging his physicality and football intelligence to outmaneuver forwards. Beyond his contributions, Stewart’s leadership and communication at the back are invaluable, organizing the defence and instilling confidence in his teammates.

His consistent performance and ability to impact games defensively while contributing to his team’s offensive play make him an integral part of Geelong’s lineup and one of the most respected defenders in the league.

His 2023 season solidified his reputation as one of the AFL’s elite defenders, with key statistics underscoring his immense value on the field and in fantasy football. Stewart’s prowess is highlighted by his ranking in the top five per game for crucial defensive metrics, including intercepts, marks, rebound 50s, and kicks. This ability to disrupt the opposition’s play and initiate counter-attacks makes him a cornerstone of Geelong’s defensive strategy.

In AFLFantasy, Stewart had a commendable season, averaging 96.3 points. His performance included 12 tons, with three scores surpassing 120, though he had six scores under 80. His consistency and impact earned him a seventh-place ranking for averages among defenders and sixth for total points, showcasing his reliability as a fantasy option.

SuperCoach further highlighted Stewart’s exceptional season, with a career-high average of 113.6 points. Across 22 games, he amassed 16 tons, 11 of which exceeded 120 points, and two exceptional scores over 150, demonstrating his potential for high-scoring outputs. With only two scores below 80, Stewart ranked second for total points, trailing slightly behind Luke Ryan. His average placed him third among defenders, a testament to his scoring efficiency and consistency.

Stewart’s early-season setback, a Grade Two MCL injury, paradoxically offers fantasy coaches potential value due to the impact on his starting price for the following year. Priced at 96.3 in AFLFantasy and 113.6 in SuperCoach, Stewart’s performance from round 3 onwards—averaging 100.2 in AFLFantasy and 118.2 in SuperCoach—indicates his scoring resilience and potential for value.

His reliability and excellent track record bolster Tom’s fantasy football credentials. With five consecutive seasons averaging over 90 in AFLFantasy and four consecutive seasons averaging over 100 in SuperCoach, Stewart stands as one of the most dependable premium defenders in the game. This consistency, combined with his on-field leadership and defensive acumen, makes Stewart a highly sought-after player in fantasy drafts, offering coaches a blend of scoring potential and stability in their defensive lineups.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

With Tom Stewart, the discussion point is very simple. Is he someone you want in your squad from round one? Or will he be someone you intend to target during the season as an upgrade? Does he start this season on a hot streak, or can we jump on him as an upgrade before the streak begins? At some stage in the season, you’ll want to own him; the question is when not if.

Over his career, he’s been a player who always provides us with a hot 6-10 game stretch annually. For example, in 2022, there was even an eight-game stretch between rounds 3-11, wherein AFLFantasy/DreamTeam averaged 114 and had his scoring range between 93-169. However, in SuperCoach, he averaged 120 over the first ten games, and that run included a 74, his second-lowest score of the year.

Tom Stewart’s performance in the latter half of the 2023 season, particularly between rounds 15-21, underscores his status as a fantasy powerhouse. In SuperCoach, his average soared to 124.7, never dipping below 100, while in AFLFantasy, he maintained a solid average of 102, with only one game falling below 94. This stretch of games highlighted his scoring potential and consistency, making him a cornerstone for fantasy defences.

The prospect of Stewart playing more in the midfield for Geelong adds another layer of intrigue to his fantasy outlook. Given the additional opportunities for possessions, clearances, and tackles, a midfield stint could elevate his scoring ceiling even further. This versatility and elite defensive play could make Stewart an even more valuable fantasy asset.

Geelong’s early-season fixture further enhances Stewart’s fantasy appeal, notably favourable for defenders. Matchups against teams like St Kilda, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, North, and Brisbane present ample opportunities for high-scoring performances, making Stewart an attractive option from the outset.

Despite his undeniable talent and fantasy relevance, Stewart’s history of in-season injuries, which have often led to missed games and subsequent price drops, is a consideration for fantasy coaches. This pattern presents a potential buy-low opportunity during the season but carries the risk of temporary gaps in fantasy lineups.

Stewart emerges as a prime candidate for those searching for a D1 option with a high-scoring ceiling, particularly if looking beyond Nick Daicos. His track record, the potential for midfield minutes, and favourable early fixtures position him as a must-consider player in fantasy drafts.

The decision to start with Stewart or aim to acquire him at a value during the season depends on individual strategy and risk tolerance. Both approaches have their merits, with the former capitalizing on his immediate impact and scoring potential and the latter potentially maximizing value following any price drops due to injury. Regardless of the strategy employed, one thing is clear: Tom Stewart is poised to be among the top defenders in 2024, making him a highly desirable asset for fantasy coaches aiming for success by season’s end.

Embed from Getty Images

DRAFT DECISION

Some players draft range is stable across all formats, while others see some ranking and range differential. With Tom Stewart, the selection as a D1 won’t change, but his draft range will have a few rounds differential. In SuperCoach, I expect him to head off draft boards in the middle to the late second round. For AFLFantasy, he’ll likely start getting selected from the third into the top of the fourth.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy-relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say on our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the crowd here.

#48 Most Relevant | Cam Guthrie

A big buzzword of every fantasy football preseason is ‘value.’ Cam Guthrie has the historical backing to give coaches plenty of score upside and deliver fantastic value. While many won’t be talking about him yet, he will be one of the most relevant players in 2024.

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

After Geelong’s breakthrough Premiership with the lovingly dubbed ‘retirement home’ list in 2022, the football club fell immediately in 2023. The primary contributing factor was injuries to multiple key players which meant before schedule the next generation of Cats started taking some more central figures in the side. The result was the club’s worst ladder position since 2003. Cameron Guthrie’s season probably best reflects that of Geelong’s fortunes.

His season hit its first hurdle in round six, where he was subbed out of the Grand Final rematch against the Swans, complaining of a toe injury. After surgery in June, the club was confident he’d be able to play late in the season; however, after an impressive return via the VFL in mid-August, the club chose to put him on ice for the final few weeks of the season.

Before his season-ending injury, Cam still managed to put up his season-high and only AFL Fantasy/DreamTeam ton of the year with 111. He also posted two additional scores over 90 on the way to a season-ending average of 86.8. Over in SuperCoach, it’s a very similar stat line: one ton, two additional scores of 90+ and an average of 83.6.

Cam’s scoring potential is on full display in the two prior seasons. During the 2022 season, he scored ten tons across the formats, three over 120 and averaged 95.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 99.2 in SuperCoach. In 2021, he averaged 109.9 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, posting sixteen tons, four over 120 and just one score under 80. Meanwhile, for SuperCoach, he averaged 113.2, scored fifteen tons, eight over 120, and fell under 80 in two matches.

He’s priced at an average of 84 in AFLFantasy, 75 in SuperCoach & 78 in DreamTeam. Depending on the format, his potential 25-40 pints per game is based on his 2024 price and his career-high year of 2021.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

When considering if Cam Guthrie is the right player for your starting squad, you need to consider four primary considerations for you to process before either selecting him in your starting squad or fading your interest. The first is his role in the Cats midfield; the second is Geelong’s opening fixtures; and lastly, there is the overall structural importance of midprice players for fantasy in 2024.

The Geelong Football Club are in an interesting position. Last year, they had the most players of the AFL club attend a centre bounce. Thirty players (including rucks) went through there. Do they still allow some older crew to lead the midfield pack? Or do they phase them out in favour of the younger crew? Cam Guthrie (31), Patrick Dangerfield (33), Tom Atkins (28), Jack Bowes (25) and new mature-age recruit Shaun Mannagh (26) are all over 25. Then there’s the young brigade 22 under Tanner Bruhn, Mitch Knevitt, Max Holmes, Jhye Clark & George Stevens.

Arguably, there’s not just a role but a need for him. That role is as a midfielder present at centre bounce, not just a wingman who gets his hands on it at stoppages. In 2023, he averaged 58% attendance at CBA; in 2022, it was 65%, and in 2021, it was 68%.

How heavy do Geelong lean into this rebuild? They still have a powerful forward line with Tom Hawkins, Jeremy Cameron, Tyson Stengle and Oli Henry. Any backline with Tom Stewart and Sam DeKoning will be hard to score on. But are the Cats prepared to ‘waste‘ some legend’s final years and let the next generation take the wheel? Thankfully, as the preseason evolves, we’ll get great insight into how Geelong will function as a midfield core this year.

Whenever you start a midprice/breakout player, you want to be rewarded with a favourable role and a fixture that could allow for that scoring upside. Geelong has that fixture, taking on many more favourable scoring matchups using 2023 data. Here’s who they play over the opening six weeks of the season:

  • Round One | St Kilda (GMHBA)
  •  Round Two | Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
  •  Round Three | Hawthorn (MCG)
  •  Round Four | Western Bulldogs (Adelaide Oval)
  •  Round Five | North Melbourne (GMHBA)
  •  Round Six | Brisbane (Gabba)

Do we need players priced in this range in 2024? Historically, we’d be looking at players in this range with this scoring pedigree of Guthrie. He’s priced at an average of 84 in AFLFantasy, 75 in SuperCoach & 78 in DreamTeam. That’s a potentially strong output upside. However, the games are different in 2024, with four of the first six weeks scoring a best 18. Because of this, the conversation around our team structures will be of significant interest and difference this preseason.

How should we structure our sides this year? Is a more ‘traditional’ approach of guns and rookies the best play? Should we max out the scores on premiums and maximise the best cash generation from more rookies? Or do we still need some players in this middle range that can score like a premium but do some with some financial upside both in dollars saved and in money generated?

Ultimately, if you do jump onto Guthrie, you’ve got three core outcomes that can work out for you. Firstly, you see him get that midfield role in the preseason and start with him. He returns to his 100+ average and, in doing so, nets you that twenty points per game of value, gets you a season-long midfield premium, and ensures you’ve got a flying start to round out your squad.

Option Two: he doesn’t quite live up to the forecasted scoring, but in doing so, he becomes a trade asset that you move early into the season. He can then be moved with a single trade into the guy having a flying start. For example, last year, Will Setterfield was the fast money many delivering bumper scoring at a discounted range. With an asset player like Guthrie, you’re doubling down on the possibilities without damaging any structural integrity in other lines.

And lastly, and potentially a new way of playing the game with these early byes/ best 18 early fixture weeks is using Cam Guthrie as an in-season runner trade. How coaches approach the variable of the opening round will no doubt be a strategic conversation that fills up plenty of processing time from now until early March. With all formats confirming that while the format will only ‘officially’ start in round one, the player’s price movement will be impacted by what a player scores in the opening round. In essence, you’ll get two price movements for the price of one.

This creates a strategy loophole that bold coaches can potentially exploit. We’ll be given a ‘free hit’ to view a player’s performance, role and fantasy scores and get a small indicator of what we might see unfold before the formats ‘officially’ commence and lockouts/trades start to become activated. A player like Josh Kelly, given his scoring ceiling history over his career, is the perfect type of person to consider early on, particularly in AFLFantasy, where you’re often only using early trades as correctional movements.

He’s also got a strong recent scoring history against Collingwood, who the Giants face in the opening round. His last three scores against the Magpies, including the Giants 2023 preliminary finals loss, are 106, 113 & 116 in AFLFantasy and 110, 116 & 115 in SuperCoach. GWS then take on North Melbourne & West Coast in the following two rounds. Both are amongst the easiest teams to score against using 2023 data. If Kelly comes out of the gate firing, you could see a significant boost in cash generation and a player who’s a legitimate VC option.

It’s here you could flip Kelly, take the cash he’s generated, and turn him into Guthrie just before the Cats fixture opens up to be equally as fantasy-friendly between rounds four and six. The challenge with starting with a strategic play like this is you’re banking a trade with no guarantee you’ll be able to take the offramp. All it will take is some unplanned variables of multiple injuries/suspensions, and suddenly, your plans hit a frustrating stall.

The beauty of the preseason is you need to spend it not married to a strategy or a structure but to use it to test and trial multiple approaches. The outcomes of the opening round, let alone the preseason matches, will significantly affect how your team looks heading into the season’s first round. For now, place Cam on your watchlist. If his midfield role unfolds the way I forecast, he’s someone to consider this preseason.

Embed from Getty Images

DRAFT DECISION

The summation of Cam Guthrie’s last three seasons is key to where we should rank him. The last three years of averages (2021-2023) rolled up is 97.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 98.7 in SuperCoach. That’d be a great outcome if he could deliver that level of scoring output.

Based on a roll-up average, that’d place him just outside the top thirty midfielders using 2023 data. The potential positive is you should be able to target him with your M5 selection, potentially even M6, with the upside of being an M2 if he can return to his 2021 scoring era. More realistic is you get M4 returns on a M5 pick.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say on our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the crowd here.

Practice Match Review: Brisbane Vs Geelong

On a beautiful Thursday evening in Ipswich, the reigning premiers Geelong took on the Lions at Brighton Homes Arena. We’ve got plenty of fantasy-relevant names to discuss, so let’s check out my game review.

Embed from Getty Images

Josh Dunkley

Everything you wanted to see from Josh Dunkley was on full display tonight. The midfield role was evident. He won centre clerances; he tackled, and when he did drift forward was involved in impacting the scoreboard and did it all without breaking out of second gear. Keep the game simple; start Dunkley. I can only foresee an injury as the reason he isn’t one of the top-scoring forwards in 2023. 

Cam Rayner

The halfback role that was mooted in the preseason eventuated for Cam Rayner. His speed and class were on display. He’ll share his time through this line with Daniel Rich, Conor McKenna and Kiedean Coleman. On paper, that’s a powerful rebounding core. All can be elite with the ball by foot. The challenge is they’ll potentially clip the scoring capacity of each other and make it very hard to own any of them across all formats, not just in classic but drafts and daily fantasy.

Will Ashcroft

Is Will Ashcroft as special a talent as he’s been touted? Oh, you bet he is! This kid is going to be something special. The perfect combination of power & precision, speed and smarts. He will be an elite player in the AFL very soon. So lock him into your side. While he might not his the scoring ceiling years of Sam Walsh and Nick Daicos from their debut seasons, I wonder if he’ll be far behind. 

Lachie Neale

This a perfect reminder from Lachie Neale to the SuperCoach community. Sleep on him at your peril. 31 touches, a goal, all while barely breaking a sweat. The newly crowned skipper will again lead from the front and through the midfield in 2023. He’ll cop a few tags throughout the season, but we know by season’s end, he’ll be among the top SuperCoach scorers again. 

Darcy Wilmot

Darcy spent his time running across the wing, and while he didn’t get a high volume of opportunity with the ball, he did look composed and functioned well within the Lions structure. He’s no lock inside the best 22, but I’d be surprised if he isn’t named in round one.

Hugh McCluggage

On our most recent podcast, Kane articulated a point beautifully. He stated that practice games like these often suit the more outside and athletically gifted players. It’s often due to the need for more defensive pressure and intensity. So it’s no surprise that a player with Hugh McCluggae’s skill had a good game. Both teams were barely getting out of first gear. 

Embed from Getty Images

Tanner Bruhn

Last week Jack Bowes was the standout that the fantasy community jumped on, and I suspect it’ll be Tanner Bruhn this week. The former Giant had plenty of midfield opportunities and looked composed with the ball. I’m not convinced he’ll get the volume of midfield opportunities in the season proper when they have their full complement of midfielders available. But he’s a decent late-round selection within your drafts. 

Esava Ratugolea

I liked the look of Esava Ratugolea. He held the key position spot in the backline well but didn’t just look to defend. Instead, he used his athleticism and strength to impose himself on every opportunity to intercept he could. It’s worth noting that in this match, Sam DeKoning did play predominantly as a key position forward in the second half. I would’ve loved to see how the Cats and Stewart would use these two in the backline for a match. Regardless, it looks probable the Cats will give him a go in round one, and for DreamTeam and SuperCoach, his RUC/FWD status will make him a viable option for us. Copped a decent knock to the head the cut him open, so did spend plenty of time off the field in the third term.

Tom Stewart

Can I cntrl C & cntrl V the sentiments from Lachie Neale and place them here for Tom Stewart? He was exactly what we have known and loved about him over his career. He found space to chop off the lions movements inside forward 50. He intercepted beautifully and was ever-reliable with the ball in hand. Over the season, he will have multiple 150+ scores, but that’s not in doubt. The question coaches will continue to process is whether I should start him or make room for him as an upgrade. 

Become a Patron!

Max Holmes

As Tanner listed above, I liked the look of Max Holmes. You can see why the Cats rate him so highly internally. He’s a clever footballer who makes good decisions consistently. I’d be looking at him if he retained MID/FWD DPP this season. But with the volume of strong other stepping-stone midfielders, he looks destined to be a daily fantasy and draft pick.

#10 Most Relevant | Tom Stewart

Over the past few seasons, one of the most reliable premium defenders has been Tom Stewart. But, after finally achieving the ultimate goal of a premiership, is it business as usual for this Cat? Or will we start to see a change in his fantasy football scoring?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Stewart
Age: 29
Club: Geelong Cats
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score: 
169 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
187 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
169 Vs Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2022)
187 Vs Fremantle | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average: 
94.4 (AFLFantasy)
109.7 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $604,000
AFLFantasy Price: $836,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $857,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

He finally did it! Tom Stewart achieved the ultimate goal when he and his Geelong Cats lifted the premiership cup on the Grand Final day in 2022. The Cats were able to get there off the back of some sensational performances from this club champion. He ranked second in the league for intercepts per game and was top ten for both marks and rebound 50s. Stewart was also ranked per game inside the top twenty for kicks, meters gained and effective disposals.

During the year AFLFantasy/DreamTeam had some amazing highs and some frustrating lows. But they levelled each other out if you owned him over most of the journey. By the end of the season, his average of 94.4 had him ranked as the seventh-best defender by average and was the 30th-best for points. Good for a guy who missed five matches. He scored five tons, including two monsters over 120, a 157 & a 169. He had six additional scores between 90-99 and just five under 80, one of which was a concussion sub-game.

His SuperCoach year was even better. His average of 109.5 was the third-best among defenders, with only James Sicily and Jack Sinclair averaging more. In comparison, that average was the 20th best in the format overall. He’s got a higher average than Josh Kelly, Josh Dunkley, Luke Parker and Ollie Wines. He scored eleven tons, with five of them over 120. That includes 161, 174 & 187. Alongside this was three additional scores of 90+ and just three scores under 80, one of which was his concussion game.

When you spend big coins on premiums, you can rarely find yourself getting a slice of value, but with Tom, that might be the case. He went off early in the second term in round twelve after getting subbed out with a concussion. If you take this game out of his averages, he had about three points per game of upside in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and almost five in SuperCoach.

Over the past two seasons, Tom’s been among the best defensive premiums we could own. He’s averaged 95.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, scored sixteen tons, had three over 120 and only dropped his scoring under 80 in just seven matches. For SuperCoach, he’s averaged 108.5 over the previous 37 games. He’s scored 25 tons, nine above 120, and his scores have fallen under 80 in just four games.

Over this series, both through the articles and the podcasts, we’ve highlighted the importance of a player’s ceiling and how players with such a strong ceiling can quickly take seasons away from you. Tom has a strong ceiling but the proven capacity to do it over multiple weeks. For example, just last year in SuperCoach, he spent the first seven weeks of the season averaging 120. While in AFLFantasy/Dreamteam between rounds 3-11, his average was 114.

Stewart has one of the best ceiling scoring going around. You can see exactly what I mean when you compare his 169 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 187 in SuperCoach against some of the more prominent premium defenders’ career-best scores.

PlayerSuperCoach AFLFantasy
Jordan Dawson158158
Jack Sinclair146150
Caleb Daniel154135
Mitch Duncan156169
James Sicily164151
Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

With Tom Stewart, the discussion point is very simple. Is he someone you want in your squad from round one/ Or will he be someone you intend to target during the season as an upgrade? Does he start this season on a hot streak, or can we jump on him as an upgrade before the streak begins? Over his career, he’s been a player that always provides us with a hot 6-10 game stretch annually.

For example, in 2022, there was even an eight-game stretch between rounds 3-11, wherein AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 114 and had his scoring range between 93-169. However, in SuperCoach, over the first ten games, he went at an average of 120, and that run included a 74, his second-lowest score of the year. So if he starts this year the way he scored in that patch, it could be a season-winning selection.

We’ve got two significant fixture changes for 2023. The first is an additional round; the year is now made up of 24. The other is that the bye rounds are split over four, not three weeks. What’s significant about this is that DreamTeam and SuperCoach have decided to treat all four weeks of byes as the best ’18’ scorers, and round thirteen has just the Gold Coast Suns and Geelong Cats with the week off. 

Finding 18 players to field in round 13 will be simple. The others can be challenging. Being able to bank a premium defender like Stewart could become extremely valuable. He becomes the constant theme in your backline during the other three bye rounds as you make upgrades and team benchings. And it’s not just selecting a bye runner; it’s using the byes as potentially a deal breaker if you can’t split the difference between Stewart and another premium. As a matter of reference, Geelong plays Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Melbourne during those three weeks. Using 2022 data trends, two of those are phenomenal matchups for intercepting defenders and defenders.

One of the primary attractions behind starting Stewart is his inbuilt value alongside a relatively friendly fixture to the premiers. Over the first six weeks, they play Magpies (MCG), Blues (MCG), Suns (Metricon), Hawks (MCG), Eagles (Adelaide Oval) & Swans (GMHBA). Speaking of fixtures, many have noted that Tom’s scoring last year was supreme. Last year in the games he played at GHMBA Stadium, he averaged 124.8 in SuperCoach and 107.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. At all other venues, he averaged 95.3 for SuperCoach and 87.1. in AFLFantasy. Six of his last ten games this year are at GMHBA, and five of his last seven are there.

And while the data looks amazing, there are a few ‘holes’ to note in one of those games. One game at Marvel stadium includes his concussion game. The other, but least important, was that he got tagged against the Saints by Mitch Owens. Of course, tags can happen at any venue against any opponent, but those two games heavily throw the data trend out.

One of the most compelling reasons to fade on starting Stewart, especially in the more limited trade formats of DreamTeam and SuperCoach, is the probability of the Cats resting their star defender. In 2022, Geelong timed their run at the finals beautifully. They ensured that the whole squad was playing their best football in September. One of the ways they did that was by managing their older players and eliminating the risk of injury niggles to ensure they were primed for finals. That’s common for teams in the premiership window to do. However, the challenge alongside this is Geelong are notoriously hard to get a read on when or if these might occur. It’s now a question of who, not if the Cats have a late change. I’m convinced we’ll see multiple games where Stewart & other older Cats are managed, and for the most part, outside of the blockbuster games, you won’t predict when they might come.

So is Stewart someone you must start? Or do you want to grab him on the cheap during the season? The answer is both strategies are viable. We’re not discussing speculative options in the fifty most relevant in the top ten. Stewart will be among the best defenders in 2023, and most coaches will want him on their sides by the time the season ends.

DRAFT DECISION

Some players draft range is stable across all formats, while others see some ranking and range differential. With Tom Stewart, the selection as a D1 won’t change, but his draft range will have a few rounds differential. In SuperCoach, I expect him to head off draft boards in the middle to the late second round. For AFLFantasy, he’ll likely start getting selected from the third into the top of the fourth.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say on our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

#46 Most Relevant | Mitch Duncan

From the 2022 season, we’ve lost plenty of topline defensive premiums. One of the potential big gains is Mitch Duncan. This premiership Cat shapes as one of the new defenders that could populate our teams in 2023. 

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Mitch Duncan
Age: 31
Club: Geelong Cats
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score: 
138 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
123 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
169 Vs Western Bulldogs | AFLFantasy (2017)
156 Vs Collingwood | SuperCoach (2020)

2022 Average: 
92.6 (AFLFantasy)
88.4 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $486,800
AFLFantasy Price: $820,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $840,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It happens every single season. We lose some top-end premium options in the defensive line. For the 2023 season, we’ll start without Jack Crisp, Jayden Short and Lachie Whitfield. All of whom have been high-scoring options in our backline. But with the departures comes the arrivals, and in our backline, one of the biggest new additions is Mitch Duncan. The Premiership Cat spent the entirety of last year across the half-back line, and had he not held MID/FWD DPP in 2022, he would’ve gained defensive status during the season.

The move into the backline enabled his decision-making and clean kicking skills to shine as he, alongside Tom Stewart, became the primary movers of the ball out of the Geelong defensive 50. Last year he averaged 23.4 touches a game, 8.4 marks, and 3 rebound 50s per game. In fact, across the league, he ranked by average second in the AFL for marks. Only he and James Sicily averaged more than 8 per game. He also ranked 14th by average for uncontested possessions. However, he got that much space due to his football smarts and workrate to create open opportunities for his teammates to get him the ball.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 92.5 across the season. That featured six tons which included 124 & 138. He also had three additional scores between 90-99 and had his scoring dip below 70 on just two occasions.

While in SuperCoach, his average was marginally lower, with an 88. He scored just four tons, but pleasingly they were all above 115. He had four scores between 90-99, and just like in AFLFantasy had only two scores dipping under 70.

If you look over his career of Mitch, it’s evident that he always could execute high fantasy football scores and averages. Since 2014 he’s had a season averaging 110 across the formats, along with multiple other triple-digit averages. While these are important to highlight his fantasy pedigree, they were done when he played as a midfielder. So as good as the averages look, we can only consider his 2022 data as that’s his only season playing as a defender.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

At the time of writing this article, one important piece of information currently needs to be discovered. And that piece of information could significantly sway the way people view Mitch Duncan. That is how the formats will treat round thirteen in contrast to the other bye rounds. Over recent seasons we’ve had only three bye rounds and six teams on a break each week. In those weeks, the formats function of a ‘best 18’ on field scorers counting towards your weekly total. However, in 2023 we have four bye rounds, with round thirteen having just the Gold Coast Suns and Geelong Cats with the week off. Whether the formats treat this round as a ‘best 18’ or a standard 22 will ultimately determine how Duncan (amongst other Suns and Cats premiums) is viewed.

If the formats opt into this being the best 18 scorers on the field scoring round, then a premium defender like Duncan could become extremely valuable. He becomes the constant theme in your backline during the other three bye rounds as you make upgrades and team benchings. While in round thirteen, getting 22 on-field options to get into a scoring 18 should be easy to accomplish. If round 13 is treated in such a way, you should consider bumping Duncan (amongst others) up in your rankings. Having a consistent premium in the harder three MBRs is a gift.

The formats could also maintain the 22 scoring on-field options and force coaches to look to their bench options to cover any Suns or Cats players. Should this be their approach, covering Duncan with a bench option for a week is relatively easy. As a non-playing ‘blue dot’, he also can provide you with an easy vice-captaincy loophole player if needed.

As a reference point, years ago, Port Adelaide would often host a game in China, and as a result, the AFL would schedule them alongside their opposition with a standalone bye-round. The fantasy formats viewed these rounds as a standard scoring round of 22 on the field.

Sometimes it pays to look beneath the surface and see the causation behind a scoring jump. For example, between rounds 2-11, Duncan had only two scores over 90 and one above 100. During that stretch of games, he averaged 86 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 81 in SuperCoach. However, in round 12, Tom Stewart went down early in the game with a concussion.

From then on, and over the next nine weeks, he became the primary transition player out of defensive for the Cats and averaged 100 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 96.8 in SuperCoach. Remember, Stewart missed four of those games through suspension, plus the concussion sub-affected game. As a reference, from 14 games, Duncan averaged 89.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam when playing with Tom and went at 101.8 in five games without him. That’s a differential of 12.5. While in SuperCoach, he scored 86.1 with Stewart and 95 without him. A gap of 8.9 per game.

While those points might not feel enormous, that’s enough to take Duncan from pushing the topline of our backline premiums to a few levels below where we need our premium defenders to be. If you’re considering him in your starting squad, you are confident he’s a top 5-6 averaging defender for the majority of the season. If not, why is he in your starting squad? You are better to off paying up for someone you believe that is, or getting on a breakout candidate.

I’d rather target him as an upgrade than consider him a starting squad selection unless the bye-round ruling I described above eventuates. In that case, he needs to be considered as a starter.

DRAFT DECISION

Over his career, Mitch Duncan’s always had a low scoring gap between his SuperCoach & AFLFantasy averages. That trend continued into this role across half-back. Despite that, Mitch’s drafting range varies depending on which platform/format you choose to draft. We have a likely deeper pool of 90+ averaging defenders due to the scoring avenues of SuperCoach in contrast to AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

His average of 92.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam puts him above the top 10 defenders. After Sam Docherty, Jordan Dawson and Jack Sinclair, the next group of defenders open up for the next few picks. I see Mitch getting picked anywhere from the next man as the fourth defender selected overall right through to the tenth defender drafted. Either way, he’s a D1 selection, and coaches will start looking for him no later than the fourth or fifth round.

Over in SuperCoach, with an average of 88.4, he falls just outside the top 30 defenders based on last seasons averages. That said, purely on name value, I see him getting picked up as early as a D2. He’ll certainly get picked ahead of guys like Nick Hind, Tom Barrass and Luke McDonald, who averaged more than him last year.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say on our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

Trade Review | Jack Bowes


Career High SuperCoach Score: 146 Vs West Coast (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 135 Vs West Coast (2021)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 83.6 (2020)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 80.5 (2021)

Impact on new club

Did teams really want Jack Bowes? Or was it just posturing to land the real target, pick seven? Geelong was adamant about their interest in Jack outside of any incoming draft selections with him. So now that they’ve secured him, where will he be used?

Of the Cats premiership players, only Joel Selwood is a noticeable ‘out’ heading into the new year. The club will automatically include Max Holmes while also wanting to find space for recruits in Ollie Henry, Tanner Bruhn and Jack himself. Around the fringes of the team, throw in Sam Menegola, Mark O‘Connor and Brandan Parfitt, who are all good enough; it’s a tight team to break into. Don’t forget whoever they land at pick 7, which could well be local midfield junior Jhye Clark.

Jack’s going to have his work cut out for him, but his versatility of being able to play across half-back plus through the midfield should only benefit his case. I don’t see him inside the Cats best 22, but he could well force his way through the season with some strong VFL form.

Impact on the old club

Is saying none too harsh? It probably is, but the reality is that Jack Bowes had fallen significantly out of favour at the club. As a result, the club’ salary dumped’ him and also gave up access to the seventh pick in the upcoming AFL draft. Never before has a pick this high been used to ‘sweeten’ a player trade.

Gold Coast lose some depth across the midfield and half-back lines, but they’ll be confident that Alex Davies, Brayden Fiorini and James Tsitas can cover it. The return from an ACL injury for Lahie Weller should also help.

Fantasy Summary It’s all about his role. Because with the right opportunities, Jack Bowes might be worth keeping more than an eye on for the upcoming season. His 2021 fantasy season is proof of his potential. He averaged 80 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 83 in SuperCoach. At first glance, those numbers are solid, but his early-season form is worth noting.

In the opening eight games of the year, he averaged 101 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, which featured scores of 113, 124 & 135. While in SuperCoach, he averaged 104 and had four scores over 110, including a 146 but just one score under 90 during that eight game stretch. This is the career ceiling, but it does showcase the potential fantasy pedigree when all the elements land correctly for him.

As we discussed earlier, just where and how the Cats opt to use Bowes is ultimately the key to his fantasy relevance. He’ll have DEF status, so he’ll get drafted in a single-season and keeper league. Just his pure potential of him is enough to ensure that. But in salary cap formats, so much will depend on his preseason. He has a potential upside of around 25 points per game, and that’s before any injury-impacted discounts hit his price point.

If all the variables land his way, his certainly a prospect, but there’s a significant number of them to overcome. At the very least, keep him on your preseason watchlist.

#6 Most Relevant | Mitch Duncan

Now and then, we’re gifted a player in our forward lines that are just a walk-up in our starting squads. In 2022 we’ve been given Mitch Duncan as a MID/FWD. Is he as obvious a selection as he appears? Or are there some underlying signs we need to be scared of?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Mitch Duncan
Age: 30
Club: Geelong Cats
Position: Midfield/Forward

2021 Highest Score: 
146 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
149 Vs West Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
169 Vs Western Bulldogs | AFLFantasy (2017)
156 Vs Collingwood | SuperCoach (2020)

2021 Average: 
100.3 (AFLFantasy)
99.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $540,000
AFLFantasy Price: $841,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $855,200

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For the past few seasons, Mitch Duncan has been one of the secret weapons of coaches in fantasy footy. With a solid historical ceiling, coaches would often look to him to be a point of difference in their sides. However, Duncan’s ability to be the perfect modern midfielder is damaging. He has no issues winning the contested footy or getting his hands on the ball for a clearance. But it’s when allowed to find space he becomes one of the most damaging midfielders in the game.

He ranked ninth in the league for marks by averages, fifteenth for score involvements and sixteenth for uncontested possessions. Of course, with no context or understanding, these averages may mean little to you. But what they show is Mitch’s fantastic ability to get into damaging open spaces on the ground and then capitalise in those moments by turning them into scoreboard impacts for his Cats.

It was a frustrating season for Duncan with just ten games, but he still displayed his fantasy pedigree within those matches. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored six tons, four of them over 130 and only one score under 80 that wasn’t injury impacted. In round 14, he played just 6% time on the ground. If we removed just that match his average balloons up to 110.5. Higher than Zach Merrett, Callum Mills and Sam Walsh. Yet, even without any ‘manipulation’ of the numbers, he’s still the clear number two ranked midfielder based on his average.

For SuperCoach, he ended the season with an average of 99.2. Then, using the same ‘manipulation’ of deducting that Bulldogs clash, his average jumps a further ten points per game to 109.1. Last year he posted five tons, four of them over 120 and two over 130. He’s also the second-highest ranked forward in this format, but this time behind Josh Dunkley.

2021 isn’t an out of the box scoring season. Mitch Duncan, for years, has been one of the most reliable 100+ performing midfielders. Since 2017 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s averaged 112.5, 101.8, 105.6, an adjusted 105.8 and 1003 last season. While in SuperCoach in the same five-year stretch, he’s averaged 109.8, 106.2, 103.2 & 99.2. So his average over the past five years is 104.4 in SuperCoach and 105.2 in AFLFantasy from the past 89 home and away games. So from a visual perspective, it looks like this.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

So much of the storyline around Mitch Duncan is that he’s injury-prone. However, is it a trend that’s been building over the past few seasons or is it a relatively new trend? Between 2016-2020 Duncan had missed just four games and had never missed more than two matches in a single season. While he did miss twelve games last year, three separate issues were the primary cause of missing bulk games:

  1. His preseason and ultimately the season was ruined by a nagging calf injury.
  2. A PCL injury was sustained against the Bulldogs that kept him out for two months.
  3. He also did have a concussion in round ten against Gold Coast.

However, beyond last year he’s been relatively durable. So what’s caused the ‘injury’ tag outside of three separate issues the previous year? Beyond recency bias, it’s actually that there are three distinct ‘in game’ injuries in the past twenty home and away games. Two of them last year and one in 2020. These early injuries further compound the notion that he’s injury-prone, as he’s gone down early in the matches on all occasions.

The reality is the only genuine case for not selecting Mitch Duncan is around the growing injury history. I see no evidence to suggest his scoring will dry up. Equally, The Geelong squad is entirely primed for now, so while I expect some tweaks to the game style, I don’t see a drastic overhaul. That means the Geelong possession heavy game will be here to stay.

A players injury history is a relevant piece, but it’s not a certainty that it continues. There are numerous times players have had a poor injury but then get to a point in their career and turn it around. The best most recent example is Josh Kelly. He delivers after years of failing to play 20+ games in a season. The way you offset the history is by starting the player in question. That way, you bank the player’s points on the field for the maximum amount of weeks possible. And should an injury occur, it’ll only cost you the one trade out of your team.

However, if you opt to go against a player in your starting squad, I always encourage coaches to commit to that thought process and stay away for the season? Why? Because with every completed game, the variable of injury only further increases. Therefore, if you trade into the player and go down injured, the move is costing you two trades, not one.

I can justify any coach not choosing to start with him because he suffers some form of injury setback in the final few weeks before round one. As potentially valid as that risk is, you also have an inverse risk with Duncan. If you opt to go against him early, you could be getting burnt by weeks of a player scoring 110+. I have zero concerns or questions about his scoring abilities. Therefore, starting Mitch Duncan is one of the simplest starting squad options I can advocate for in 2022.

DRAFT DECISION

I’ve been clear throughout this series that I think the first three forwards off the board will be Josh Dunkley, Tim Taranto, and Mitch Duncan in drafts. Of course, coaches might have a personal preference on who they’d take first. But the range for each will be similar from the middle portion of the first round right through the middle of the second.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

#32 Most Relevant | Cam Guthrie

One of the most underrated fantasy footy premiums over the past two seasons is Geelong midfielder, Cam Guthrie. With coaches clamouring to spend the megabucks on the big premiums, Guthrie looms as one of the best sneaky options in 2022.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Cam Guthrie
Age: 29
Club: Geelong Cats
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score: 
153 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
163 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
153 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2021)
163 Vs Hawthorn | SuperCoach (2021)

2021 Average: 
109.9 (AFLFantasy)
113.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $616,700
AFLFantasy Price: $922,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $937,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

One of the biggest dirty little secrets of fantasy footy over the past few seasons has been the consistency of Cam Guthrie. Since moving from a defined wing role into a centre bounce midfielder, he’s become a reliable scoring premium across the formats. His combination of elite endurance, two-way work rate and a team game style that rewards him for getting into open space is a perfect combination. It allows him to always be in the game, whether it be picking the uncontested ball or through his high-level clearance work.

Cam ranks elite in the league for effective disposals, uncontested possessions, stoppage clearances, and midfielders’ marks. He finished seventh for total uncontested possessions and top twenty for stoppage clearances, handballs and effective disposals. Over the year, Guthrie delivered sixteen AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons from twenty games last year, including four over 130. He had just four games where he failed to ton-up, and in the one match he was unable to go above 80, he suffered an in-game injury in round 16. On averages, he’s ranked eleventh in. the competition and has a higher average than Sam Walsh, Clayton Oliver, Marcus Bontempelli and Darcy Parish.

For SuperCoach, he had arguably a better if not comparable season. He delivered fifteen scores of 100 or more, including eight over 120 and six above 130, including his career-high 163 against the Hawks. On averages, he ranked as the sixteen best players in the game and has a higher average than Brownlow Medalist Ollie Wines, Callum Mills, Christian Petracca or Andrew Brayshaw.

These scores rubber-stamped his premium status after breaking out in 2020. In his All-Australian season, he played every game and averaged 103 in SuperCoach. He scored ten tons, four over 120, two over 140 and had just three under 80. Overall he ranked thirtieth in the competition for total points. Similarly, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged an average of 84.8 (106 adjusted) and scored five pure tons, seven additional scores 80+ and only had five games where he missed the 80 range. Remember, these covid affected shorter games; it meant ’80 was the 100′ for 2020. By the close of the year, he was fifteenth for total points.

To go with these scoring capabilities is that his low ownership means coaches have been getting optimal impact. To illustrate this, he ended the season in just 16% of teams owned him in SuperCoach and 10% in DreamTeam. Anytime you can get a guy with this combination of lower ownership alongside multiple seasons of proven performance, it certainly supplies a gold mine for coaches to farm.

Over the previous two years, there have been two types of coaches, those that have owned Guthrie and secretly loved it and those that have discounted him as someone having just a few good weeks. It’s time for historical non-owners to awaken to the possibilities he could provide you in 2022.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

One of the offseason stories has surrounded what Geelong will do this year. Over the past two seasons, the club has fallen short in big moments, and the premiership window is nearly shut. But will we see a drastically big difference in the game style or player positions? As an outsider looking into the club, I don’t forecast anything moving away from this. That’s based on two primary factors.

Under Christ Scott Geelong, one has always played a high skilled possession game plan. Second, the cattle of players available to them have spent multiple years training and recruiting players that fit within this structure. So until the cats evolve into a complete rebuild, I believe they’ll continue with the players and game plan. And that is good news for those considering Cam Guthrie in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam.

If you’re considering him a starting option, you need him to be a captaincy consideration most weeks. SuperCoach is the format where he has a high frequency of 125+ performances historically, but as good as he is, I’d struggle to advocate for him as an M3 or M4 premium in your team. Could you start him over a Sam Walsh, Clayton Oliver or Zach Merrett? Across the formats, it’s not something I could get behind. Let alone that we have comparable options at a lower price point.

Instead, I’d pursue him as an upgrade target during the season. Given the lack of ceiling in some formats, he’s unlikely to hold, let alone increase his starting price. However, Cam Guthrie could be the perfect midseason move at the correct cost and the right time.

DRAFT DECISION

On draft day, there’ll be one coach that’ll have Cam Guthrie in their sights ahead of everyone else. That’s the coach that enjoyed owning him in 2021. Last year he had an average draft position in UltimateFooty of 64. He won’t be available that late this year, as he’ll be off the board as an M2 on most drafts. Depending on the league, his range will be from the mid-third round to the late fourth.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

AFL Trade Review | Nathan Kreuger | Patreon Exclusive

The first official ‘trade’ of the period went down, with Nathan Kreuger heading to Collingwood. But is the first AFL Trade a SuperCoach or AFLFantasy relevant move? 

Career High SuperCoach Score: 56 vs GWS Giants (2021)

Career High SuperCoach Average: 52 (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Score: 51 vs GWS Giants (2021)

Career High AFLFantasy Average: 45 (2021)

Embed from Getty Images

Impact on New Club

Collingwood has long been missing a critical forward presence with the departure of Travis Cloke at the end of 2016. Since 2017 the Magpies have trialled a variety of players and forward structures. However, it’s apparent under a new coaching regime that the inclusion of Nathan Kreuger can be a core building block alongside Brody Mihocek, Jamies Elliott and Darcy Cameron. If Kreuger can deliver at the AFL level what he’d done at lower levels, then he’ll be an excellent addition for them.  At best, he’s a bargain buy; at worst, he’s a cheap depth option—a win/win scenario for the Magpie faithful.

Impact on Old Club

After being selected at the midseason draft several seasons ago, Nathan Kreuger finally got his AFL opportunity this year. However, at Geelong, he was never much more than a developing and depth tall. The aging Cats still have plenty of key position forward prospects, which is why he was trialled as a defender. However, his departure to Collingwood, along with the retirement of Lachie Henderson, does leave them thin in this line.

Geelong currently has Mark Blicavs, Jack Henry and Tom Stewart as the three ‘talls’ in the backline. Beyond that, they’d need Jake Kolodjashnij or Mark O’Connor to play ‘taller’ should an injury occur. I expect the club to use this offseason to bolster this line both through the draft and trade period. 

Fantasy Summary

Key position players rarely are consistent fantasy performers. Of course, there are always exceptions to the rule, but they are not players we should be targeting for the most part.  With Nathan Kreuger set to play forward at Collingwood, we can’t look at his previous scoring as a guide to forecasting his output. He played a key defensive post role in his two AFL games, not the touted tall forward role at Collingwood. 

If he were priced as a cash cow at basement price, Kreuger would be a prospect to consider in classic versions of the game. However, deeper draft leagues and daily fantasy genres of the game are likely relevant, if at all. 

#5 Most Relevant | Patrick Dangerfield

For years Patrick Dangerfield has been a prominent feature of our fantasy football sides. With him now available to be picked in our forward lines it feels like an easy selection. But is he someone you can start with?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Patrick Dangerfield
Age: 30
Club: Geelong Cats
Position: MID/FWD

2020 Highest Score: 
110 Vs Collingwood (AFLFantasy)
170 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
187 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2016)
229 Vs North Melbourne | SuperCoach (2016)

2020 Average: 
81.7 (AFLFantasy) | 102 (Adjusted Average)
113.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $611,900
AFLFantasy Price: $780,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $754,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For almost a decade Patrick Dangerfield has been a staple in our fantasy footy sides. Not only has he been a top performing player, but he’s also one of the most enjoyable to own. Last year was no different, and he was one of the key reasons his Geelong Cats made it to the big dance.

In 200 he ranked first in the AFL for total goal assists, inside ’50s, ranked second for total contested possessions, meters gains and ranked third for total centre clearances.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, his seasonal average of 81.7 converted to an adjusted average of 102. It’s perfectly serviceable as a MID only, but now as a MID/FWD his relevance has skyrocketed. He ended the year with 3 tons, an additional 4 scores between 90-99 and 3 above 80. In short 10 of 17 games were the equivalent of a ton in 2020 due to the shorter quarters.

In his more preferred scoring format of SuperCoach, he posted 12 tons, 5 of these were above 130. On his way to his seasonal average of 113.8, he had just 2 scores all season that fell below 83. As someone who is a MID/FWD, these are incredibly consistent scores.

For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam in 2019, he averaged 107. It featured fourteen scores over 100, six of those he converted into 120+ score including a final round 150 Vs Carlton. Based on the 2019 data, he’s ranked tenth by averages amongst all midfielders but finished last year inside the top 13 for total points scored.

In SuperCoach his averaged 115. From 21 games he scored 13 times over 100, 8 of those were insanely huge as he went over 140. For available midfielders, he was ranked sixth for total points and eighth for averages.

Often Patrick is criticised for being ‘too dramatic’ when it comes to in-game niggles. While for some (cough Kane Cornes cough) it dints his reputation. One thing that is true though, even though he has a crash and bang style of football, he’s been incredibly durable over his career. In just the past six seasons he’s missed only four games.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

One of my greatest disappointments of last years AFL grand final was not seeing Patrick Dangerfield fulfil his potential and dominate the game. Just moments after the Cats loss, news started to filter through Danger battling a severe groin injury.

This injury is still lingering. The former Brownlow medalist is still yet to participate in full training and now has serious question marks over his availability for the AAMI community series clash and round one.

Even for the most devoted Dangerfield owner, that needs to put some level of doubt about whether or not he’s a starting squad option should be named round one. Ultimately, with anyone carrying some injury concerns through the preseason, we need to ask ourselves ‘what do they need to do in the pre-round one for me to select them?’ Without this, you’ll either find yourself seduced by a name, or go with the flow (right or wrongly) of what the popular ‘group think’ of the fantasy community is.

For me to start Patrick, I need to see him do two things. First, play in the AAMI community series / intra club match. Second, display that explosive ability from a contest/stoppage that he’s renowned for. Without this, even if name round one I’ll be targeting him as an early upgrade.

The risk in that is he’s one of a handful of players who have the capacity to take a season away from you with a strong scoring run to start the season. And for Danger, he’s got the fixture to do it. The Cats years kicks off against last seasons easiest team to score against in Adelaide. The following 7 weeks he plays, Brisbane (home), Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne (home), West Coast (home), Sydney and Richmond.

It does include some difficult matches, but the Cats should dominate early beyond the Brisbane and Richmond clash. They play 3 rebuilding clubs in the Crows, Hawks and Kangaroos and none of these teams possesses a recognised tagger capable of slowing him down.

During the offseason, the Cats clearly went ‘all in’ on the current list in a tilt for a premiership. The largest name being that of Jeremy Cameron. However, Isaac Smith and Shaun Higgins are no scrubs. These three big in’s allow further flexibility in game for the Geelong coaching staff and give them options to use Patrick.

I believe it’ll still be a split role of midfield and forward, but with the additional marking target up forward it’ll no longer be some forced necessity to play him as a forward. Instead, it’ll be a luxury and an opportunity to expose the opposition.

By the time round 23 comes around, you’ll want Patrick in your team. He isn’t an ‘if’ but a ‘when’ to target to have in your side. Even a 3/4 strength Danger in your team is still considerably better that the vast majority of our forward stocks.

DRAFT DECISION

Once the position allocations were revealed, Patrick Dangerfield was locked in many coaches eyes as a first round selection. Ordinarily, I’d agree, but given the question marks around his availability for round one, I’d be hesitant to pick anyone in the opening round that has question marks on them.

For that reason, he’s an early-mid second round selection, but still a clear F1 for whoever owns him.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd!

Become a Patron!