Tag: St Kilda Saints

#37 Most Relevant: Dylan Roberton

He was one of the surprise packet premiums of 2017 but after a sudden fall mid game that was triggered by an irregular heartbeat. Thankfully he’s got the medical all clear and now presents fantasy coaches a real value selection.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Dylan Roberton
Age: 27
Club: St Kilda Saints
Position: Defender

2018 Highest Score: 
103 Vs Brisbane (AFLFantasy)
90 Vs Brisbane (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 

63 (AFLFantasy)
68.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $297,500
AFLFantasy Price: $
537,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: 
$360,500

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2018 started full of fantasy footy promise for Dylan Roberton and the owners that started with him. He opened up the seasons scoring with a 103 for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 90 in SuperCoach, however just 3 weeks later he collapsed midway during the game against the Cats. He somehow ran off the ground, yet was correctly sent off to the hospital by the St Kilda medical team where an irregular heart was discovered. Sadly for Saints fans and fantasy coaches that was the last we saw him play, thankfully the club took all necessary precautions to take care of his long-term health.

While not yet back to full training Roberton is doing a modified program but the St Kilda fitness staff and coaches have said on more than one occasion during the preseason that they expect him to be ready to play in the JLT Community Series. This is great news for a variety of different reasons but for fantasy coaches, this once premium defender is priced in both DreamTeam and SuperCoach especially in a range you must consider him.

Reason being, just 12 months earlier Dylan was coming off a personal best fantasy footy season and averaged over 90 across all formats off the game. In SuperCoach he averaged 92.5, he went over 100 in 8 matches including a monster 149 against the Hawks. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam coaches he averaged 90 and scored 8 tons with 3 of them over the 120 range. As great as these numbers are it was actually the early 12 games of the season where the numbers are even more impressive.

Over the first 12 rounds of the 2017 season, he averaged 102.83 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 104 in SuperCoach. For under $300,000 in SuperCoach and just over $350,000 in DreamTeam, you can get a guy who’s capable of going on big scoring runs like that. If Dylan could get near those early seasons numbers, he’ll be an easy sideways trade to a fallen premium after 5-6 rounds.

2017 is far from a ‘once off’ fantasy relevant year. In 2015 his first season at the club he played 20 games and averaged 82.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and scored four times over the hundred, while SuperCoach he averaged 90.5 and hit the triple-digit score five times all of which were over 115.

MY TAKE

We’re blessed with so many value options in 2019, and while it could probably be said for most seasons this year more than many others feels like we’re blessed with multiple robust value options across all lines. While we can’t have all of them, selecting the correct one for the right format will pay huge dividends. While he does have some value in him for AFLFantasy, the real value is DreamTeam and even more so in SuperCoach.

Priced at just under $300k in SuperCoach he’s less than $100k than first-year player Sam Walsh, and given that price tag, any coach that is looking for a midprice option in defence needs to consider what Roberton can do. He’s proven for multiple seasons in SuperCoach he’s capable of averaging 90 which is good enough to put him around the top 15 defenders and a likely D6 keeper. Even if he doesn’t get at his price, he’s a very capable stepping stone that will get you close enough to one of the first fallen defensive premiums.

Right now I have Dylan Roberton placed into my D4 position for SuperCoach and will only need to see him back into full training and complete the JLT unhindered to lock him away. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s not out of contention, but I’d need to change my current backline structure to fit him in.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

It’ll be fascinating to see where he goes in drafts, as he seems to be one of the forgotten defenders in fantasy circles. In some drafts, he may even go unselected entirely due to those who use the 2018 average as a there selection guide. In all honesty, I’d be certainly wouldn’t mind drafting him as a D4; maybe I’ll even get lucky to have him round out my on-field side at D5. It’s early in the season, but he looks like he could go in the mid-late teen rounds of a draft. Which based on scoring potential is a huge bargain!

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#39 Most Relevant: Seb Ross

He’s always been a consistent performer and highly relevant in drafts for many seasons. But late last year things changed, and for the better. So much so that he’s a relevant player in 2019 salary cap games.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Seb Ross
Age: 22
Club: St Kilda Saints
Position: Midfield

2018 Highest Score: 
160 Vs Western Bulldogs (AFLFantasy)
160 Vs GWS Giants (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 

107.3 (AFLFantasy)
102.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $558,400
AFLFantasy Price: 
$779,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: 
$767,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Prior to entering into the 2018 AFL season, Seb Ross was always a well-loved selection for drafters over the past few years given his scoring consistency and durability but was never was hugely relevant in the salary cap formats. In 2016-2017 he played every game and averaged 98.4 and 102 in AFLFantasy and of those 44 games 25 of them he scored 100 or more. In SuperCoach he averaged 93.9 and 100.9 and scored 19 tons. While those are some consistent scores if you take the time to look at his 2017 numbers in detail you start to see the makings of a fantasy scoring beast.

Between rounds 2-16 he scored 11 times over the hundred, 9 of these were over 110 in AFLFantasy and 6 for SuperCoach. During this stretch of games, he only failed to score a ton in 3 matches and never dropped below 80. His average during this window was 110 in all formats.

This 2017 form was echoed in the back portion of last season where after early on in 2018 it seemed to be a ‘standard’ Ross season with some handy 120+ scores but littered between them scores that range from ’60s-’90s he got back into ton scoring mode. During the last 6 games of the year for AFLFantasy, he scored 121,105, 160, 143, 107 & 122 at an average of 126. While in SuperCoach his scores to end the year were 120,79, 158, 152, 103, 129 at an average of 123.

Apparently, I’m not on my own noticing the scoring and fantasy footy potential of Seb Roos. Longtime fantasy footy community favourite and dear friend of The Coaches Panel Rob Rainbird recently tweeted this.

The recruitment of Dan Hannebery to go along with running machine Jack Steven should only further help him slide down the oppositions pecking of midfielder to stop. There’s plenty to like about Seb Ross in 2019 and the fact that I project less than 5% of coaches in any formats, but especially in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam where his relevance is at it’s peak is highly inviting.

MY TAKE

While he is a handy SuperCoach scorer and I do think he posses some relevance, I think it’ll largely stay in drafts. However, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam like Rainman, I think 2019 could be the year he becomes a 110+ average across the year and possibly even a captaincy option. So sorry SuperCoachers the rest of my take will squarely be focussed with the ‘other’ format in mind.

When it comes to selecting our premiums yes we want high scoring ceiling and consistent good scoring, but we also don’t want to get burned by a players basement. A fantasy basement is a player’s low scores, and while everyone is entitled to bad weeks and they do generally get balanced out by the peaks a player who shows a poor fantasy scoring floor can kill you either in head-to-head matchups or in crucial moving rounds when it comes to your rankings.

Last year Ross only had 4 scores under 80 and didn’t drop below 67. Contrast that with Dayne Zorko who last season had 8 scores below 80 and 3 under 60. Rory Sloane had almost 1/4 of last seasons games under 70 even Dayne Beams despite what many considered a phenomenal season went sub 70 in 3 matches including a 50. Yes, they all possess a fantastic ceiling, but so does Seb Ross.

Added to his high ceiling and the strong scoring basement is his AFLFantasy scoring history at Marvel Stadium. This year the Saints play 11 games there including 4 of the Saints first 6 games. In Seb’s last 12 games at the ground, he’s scored 9 tons, a low of 86 and an average of 117.75… Not Bad Seb, not bad!

In SuperCoach I’d be only looking to upgrade to him if he shows he’s lifting his basement, while in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam on current trends he looks like he’s developing along into a midfielder who is believably pushing towards the golden 110 average in 2019 and worthy of starting a squad consideration. If you don’t trust him enough to start, plonk him on the watchlist and look to upgrade him mid-season.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Based on 2018 averages he’s ranked inside the AFLFantasy/DreamTeam top 10 midfielders yet despite that I don’t see him being anybody’s M1. Players like Merrett, Crouch, Fyfe and Beams are sexier and well-known names and likely to be selected ahead of him despite that his average last year is higher. I think if you can land Seb Ross as your M2 you’ll be well on your way to building a nice midfield. He’ll be gone inside the first 3-4 rounds.

For SuperCoach drafts he’s just ranked outside the top 20 and like it AFLFantasy some bigger names are beneath him so despite his durability and relative scoring consistency I can see him being selected in a majority of drafts as an M3.

In a keeper league, good luck getting him out of the existing coaches hands, especially in AFLFantasy as his big end of year run is fresh in the memory.

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#42 Most Relevant: Jack Billings

When he’s on fire he’s an unstoppable points-scoring machine, when he’s not you’d be better off with a rookie. So why is Jack Billings in the 50 most relevant?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jack Billings
Age: 23
Club: St Kilda
Position: Forward

2018 Highest Score: 
123 Vs Brisbane (AFLFantasy)
133 Vs Brisbane (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 

85.1 (AFLFantasy)
80.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $437,600
AFLFantasy Price: 
$618,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: 
$609,300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It was a tale of two halves for fantasy coaches that owned Jack Billings last year. Things started off OK with a 123 in AFLFantasy and 133 SuperCoach against the Lions, however, that was the only time he’d score over 90 until round 13 against Gold Coast. Between round 2-12 he averaged 69.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 62.6 in SuperCoach. During this time St Kilda coach Alan Richardson chose to use Jack as an exclusive forward. He barely ventured outside forward 50 and was given almost no midfield rotations let alone the freedom to push up the flanks. The back half was a totally different story, despite not picking up huge centre bounce numbers we started to see Billings released back into the role that made him a premium forward just 12 months earlier.

That role is of a forward who doesn’t just stay inside 50 but rather starts from then and then pushes up the ground, adds support to midfielders up the wing and his elite field kicking skills is used to cut the angles.

From round 13 until seasons end in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he scored 4 tons, didn’t dip below 75 and averaged 96.8. For SuperCoach during this 10 week period, he registered 3 tons, went under 77 just once and averaged 93.4.

These averages start to reflect the scores from 2017 across all formats. That year he scored 11 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam hundreds and averaged just shy of 95. While for SuperCoach it was 10 triple-figure scores with an average of 92. For coaches who take the punt and select Jack in there starting squads they could be getting a premium forward at the value price of 10 points below his pervious season.

MY TAKE

If you were bullish on Jack Billings last preseason then, in all honesty, you should be again in 2019. Last year if anything reconfirmed to fantasy coaches that when utilised in the right way Billings is a top 10 averaging forward in all formats. The reason I suggest you should be bullish again is because if anything he’s priced under his proven scoring potential that you banked on him to deliver last year. Priced around 10 points below last seasons average should certainly indicate you should be just as if not more invested in him.

Sometimes as a fantasy coach, we use the same logic to rule a player into contention, yet we don’t follow that same logic for another player. Sadly, confirmation bias can reign supreme in certain sections. For example one of the most hyped forwards of the preseason so far is Josh Dunkley he flew home in 2018 with an average of 115.7 in SuperCoach and 112.4 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam in his final 9 games of the year. The reason coaches are hot on selecting him is that of his end of season points and role many believe that will continue for Dunks. That may be true, and fingers crossed it is, but Billings also averaged as a premium forward during the same stretch but is not being talked up with the same potential. Both have shown that when given the preferable role they are fantasy forward premiums. My bugbear is when fantasy coaches don’t use the same logic for different players subjectively. If you don’t wanna select Billings, don’t pick him, just don’t dismiss the similarities of the end of season role vs positional risk he along with others posses.

Whether you choose to start or upgrade Jack Billings the possible risk of role change still exists, as the Saints coaching staff have shown they have no hesitation moving him. However, if you choose to upgrade to him mid-season the possible value reward that he offers doesn’t exist. Seems to me as though is that coaches who begin with him gain all the possible reward and share equally in the risk with coaches who upgrade.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

12 months ago if you wanted to own Jack Billings you’d have been likely picking him inside the top 20-25 selections overall. In 2019 you won’t be needing to draft him that early. While still inside the top 20 forwards in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 30 in SuperCoach I believe he presents potential value to jump into the top 10 averages overall on where his current average currently ranks him. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam coaches he’ll likely end up being drafted as an F2, while in SuperCoach you might get lucky to pick him as an F3, although I’m not certain you’ll get that lucky.

In a keeper league now is the time to strike, 12 months ago he was one of the first forwards off the board and I do believe now is the time to strike, because if he bounces back like his end of season numbers suggest you’ll be paying way overs at some point in the future.

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