Tag: Steele Sidebottom

Upgrade Targets After Their Bye | Round 14
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The multi bye rounds are over. We now have an additional eight teams with no more scheduled rests for the remainder of the season. So here’s a club by club breakdown of potential upgrade targets who have just had their bye round.

Of all the club write-ups, I think the Crows have the least potential ‘relevant picks.’ The move of Rory Laird into the midfield has been inspired, and his scoring has been prolific across the season. Across the formats, he is the #2 ranked defender in averages and by total points. In fact, he’s under 20 points shy of the top spot. If you don’t own him, the damage has been done. The only world I’d advocate for him as a ‘trade in’ target is if you need to minimise his impact against you in rankings or league battle.

Ben Keays has been a star for his owners! In the draft formats of UltimateFooty, his average draft position was 207. With an average of 109 to date, he’d easily make the podium of the top draft day picks of the year. What’s fantasy footy 101? Ask those who traded into Darcy Parish this past round. Sadly they know it well now. Buy low, sell high! I wouldn’t be buying stocks on Keays, he’s been great, but even with his low ownership, it’s not worth paying up for.

You either have Reilly O’Brien at R2 currently, or your planning on trading in Brodie Grundy ASAP. ‘ROB’ was only an option three weeks ago when Brodie went down injured. He isn’t someone I’d advocate for as an upgrade now. His previous 3 game average is an improvement on his season in total. But for the extra $100-$150k across the formats, I’d rather Grundy every day of the week.

It’s not an upgrade, but expect the Crows to give a handful of games to last seasons #11 pick Luke Pedlar. The tough clearance winner possesses explosive speed from traffic. He’s not a basement price midfield cow, but he might be a pulse to end the season.

Two weeks ago, Nick Haynes was an obvious ‘buy low’ premium. From Collingwood, coaches have another ‘obvious’ buy low pick up in the midfield. Scott Pendlebury is coming off the back of a 167 in SuperCoach and is priced at just over $424,000. He had an injury affected role change midseason, but since overcoming that hand injury in the past fortnight, he’s delivered consecutive 100’s. If you need a cheap M7 or M8, then Pendls is your man. He has a decade of averaging over 100 in this format.

He’s arguably even more tempting in AFLFantasy, where he’s recently picked up forward status. With scores of 104 & 98 in his past fortnight and priced at under $600,000, he’s an easy no brainer selection.

We spent plenty of time on our latest podcast discussing the urgency of when to trade into Brodie Grundy. My best encouragement is to go and listen to it. Ultimately the who (you trade out) and how you plan to get him determines whether or not I feel he’s a priority this week or not. Ideally, we’d all want him on our completed side.

Mr Consistency in our backline over the past few seasons has been Jack Crisp. With low scoring deviation, he’s certainly a player that has some appeal to coaches. Personally, I’d look for either someone that is a comparable performer but cheaper. Or someone at a similar price with a greater scoring ceiling.

Due to suspension Jordan DeGoey isn’t available to play for the Pies or our fantasy teams this weekend. But prior to the bye his previous three games we’d started to see the preseason midfield role eventuate. In his last three games in SuperCoach he’s scored 88, 70 & 115 with an average of 91. Not bad for a guy priced less than $100,000 upgrade from Harry Jones.

Similarly, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam his past three have been 109, 78 & 106 at an average of 97.7. He’s the ultimate definition of ‘buy low’ and while I get he can be frustrating to own, he’s still a high potential value F6 for coaches looking to finalise their team if cash is tight.

At the start of the season, it felt like one of the most obvious premiums we’d want in our forward lines would be Steele Sidebottom. For one reason or another, it’s been a patchy season from Sidey. He’s getting some midfield minutes, but what role does he hold under Robert Harvey? Best to wait a week or two to see before committing.

I’m a big fan of Andrew Brayshaw. I genuinely believe that he’s on the cusp of becoming one of the next big midfielder Uber premiums. He’s in a weird price where he’s not the crazy value of others, but not also the safe 110 of others at a slightly high price point. Still, he should be a consideration as an option.

The scoring of Luke Ryan certainly lends himself more to SuperCoach than other formats, but he’s still got the ability to get on a hot run of form everywhere. In SC, he’s averaging 110 in his past five, including two scores over 125. In just 8% of sides, sometimes paying up for something different is worth it.

The time to trade into Sean Darcy has come and gone. The two opportunities were when Matt Flynn was dropped when Darcy what at his basement. Or a month ago when Brodie Grundy was injured. Not now! Yep, even in AFLFantasy, where he’s an RUC/FWD. I couldn’t pay the $100,000 more to choose him over Pendls.

Clayton Oliver has been one of the best midfield picks of the season. However, I don’t believe he’s worth paying up for. Part of this is linked to the substantial value options we have across the midfield. Many of them covered off in this article. The other is that next week he comes about against the tagging nemesis Matt DeBoer in round 16 and also Mark O’Connor in round 23.

If the value is the name of the game and you’re keen on trading into a Demon, then Christian Petracca is the guy. In SuperCoach last year, he broke out with a 117. Currently, he’s priced 12 points per game off this based on the current season. However, in his past five, he’s averaging 109 and scoring variation between 96-130. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s a great financial option too. At his start of the season, a glance highlights his scoring potential, whereby in round six this year, he was averaging 115.8. He’s slowed since then, but it highlights his capacity.

With no Brodie Grundy for the past three games, chances are you already have Max Gawn. If not, you’re probably not in contention in either your leagues or overall rankings. That said, In my view, Gawn is clearly the top ruck for the rest of 2021 and is someone you’ll want to have.

Christian Salem isn’t a value pick. He’s not a ceiling pick. But it is a unique pick that’s on the safer side. He’s not for me, given the value we have and the ceiling guys we have. But he’s solid if you keen.

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The Tigers have a brilliant fixture run home for non Dustin Martin that might be enough of a reason to sway you to bring him into your side finally. Beyond his opening two rounds, he hasn’t hurt those who opted against him. Personally, given his high ownership, I’d encourage you to continue to go against him and look to another option, potentially even a teammate of his.

Heading into the final nine rounds of the season, coaches want to trade into premiums that can be a top-tier option. Bachar Houli has a proven history of going on hot runs of 110+. His upcoming opposition is as friendly as any other defender, so the only cause for concern is his poor durability over recent years. But on scoring potential, he’s as good as any.

If the injury history of Houli concerns you, then his teammate Jayden Short is certainly a comparable option. A seasonal average of 96 in SuperCoach & 92 in DreamTeam/Fantasy have him ranked in the upper tiers of defensive premiums.

The Tiger I personally like the most is Shai Bolton. He’s damaging through the midfield and inside forward 50. He’s still relatively unique, considering his multiple week injury layoff just over a month ago. In SuperCoach, he’s priced at an average of 97 but is averaging 109 in his past five. In fact, since round four, his lowest score is 96. Not bad for a player under $525k.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s performing equally as strong in our forward line. Since round four, he’s scored 4 tons (including 122) and has a low of 85. Not a bad run of 8 games, if you ask me. Shai offers four key ingredients that should be appealing to prospective owners. Scoring ceiling, low variable deviation, relatively low ownership and still some value for money. If he’s not on your watchlist, at the very least, your playing the game wrong.

Quite simply, Jack Steele is worth every cent. He’s a VC/C option every single week!

Brad Crouch is more of an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam selection and still offers some value. Two seasons ago at the Crows, he showed his ability to be a season, long 110 performer. In his last five games, he’s averaging 110, and in his previous three, he’s going at 123. He’s one of a handful of Saints that have been relevant fantasy prospects for us this year. Personally, as good an option as he is, I’d wait a week and grab Neale.

It’s starting to get late in the season for Rowan Marshall to be an option for you. Sadly injuries have damaged his season for fantasy coaches and the Saints. Even if he does play this week, many coaches are only one or two forward spots away at max. With options like Patrick Dangerfield, Toby Greene and even Shai Bolton all within range of him, you can’t pick him. The best thing about him is his DPP, but with some rookie RUC/FWD options getting games, its value has taken a marginal dip.

The move of Callum Mills into the midfield has seen him become a topline defensive premium for the year. And given how good he’s performing, his ownership numbers are scarily low in some formats. For example, he’s coming off the back of eight consecutive SuperCoach tons, and he has dropped under 90 in just one game all season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

He’ll give you a great points return, but the real question beneath this especially for DreamTeam and SuperCoach players is this. What’s the value of a trade? Based on the amount you have remaining and current ‘completion level’ of your side will ultimately have an impact on whether he’s worth paying up for.

Jake Lloyd has been good without being great. Which, if we are honest, is a reflection of how amazing he has been over the past few seasons. An average of 108 in SuperCoach & 98 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam is nothing to sneeze at. So if you can afford to trade him in, you’ll be rewarded. But personally, if you’ve got that far, you might as well go all the way and grab Mills.

I’m aware that the title of this article is ‘upgrade targets.’ But Joel Amarety’s important enough to sides to need to be discussed in this article. His value is twofold. Firstly, a downgrade to him should generate the cash you need to make another upgrade. Second, his RUC/FWD positional creates great flexibility, especially if you own Callum Coleman-Jones or target Rowan Marshall as a final forward spot upgrade.

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Finding value to finish off our sides can be challenging, but West Coast champion Shannon Hurn is genuinely an option. Barring his injury affected round four clash against St Kilda (scored 6), he’s been delivering strong premium scores. Removing this early in game injury from his scoring, he’d be averaging 106 in SuperCoach and 100 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. To go with his dependable scoring, Hurn is incredibly unique. He’s in 2% or under of sides across the formats.

A picture of consistency over the past few seasons has been wingman Andrew Gaff. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s historically been a 105-110 midfielder and a 100-105 in SuperCoach. This year he’s currently averaging about 10-12 points per game beneath that.

The midfield of West Coast has been smashed with injuries, with all of Elliot Yeo, Tim Kelly and Luke Shuey all missing multiple games. With all either back or returning over the coming days, we should see Gaff recommence getting that silver service on the outside of the packs. With some luck, he could be the perfect ‘buy low’ candidate to complete your midfield.

While Gaff represents value, Elliot Yeo, for me, is the pick of the Eagles mids. Across the formats, he’s a proven historical performer of 105. Yeo has been building his fitness base after a long time out of the game. However, after match winning final quarter against Richmond, I’ve seen enough to suggest he’ll be able to get back somewhere near his best.

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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SuperCoach Weekend Wrap | Round 6
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Read Time:3 Minute, 32 Second

Injuries, injuries, injuries. What more needs to be said. It was the round for it.  In 13 years of playing this game I’m not sure I’ve seen a start quite like this. To have so many premiums out at one time, so early on in the season, it certainly feels unique this year. But in the words of the all wise and knowledgeable Conor McGregor, “An injury is not just a process of recovery, it’s a process of discovery.”

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This early on in the week it feels more like recovery; particularly for those coaches dealing with multiple outs. I feel for coaches I know who need to manage Josh Dunkley, Lachie Neale, and Dustin Martin all at the same time. Just like I feel for the poor bloke I know that traded Neale in about 10 minutes before the bounce. Ooft. Needless to say, it’s these three injuries that will be taking up the majority of the Supercoach conversion this week. 

To continue on with McGregor’s wisdom, it’s fair to say that we are now in a week of discovery. The opportunities we have before us for some unique points of difference in our teams makes this a fun week. If you’re still in the recovery stage, this might not sound so fun but you’ll get there. 

In my mind, we’ve got three places of opportunity. Or as I like to call it, POO.

First, is the opportunity to bring fresh blood into our forward line.

I will grant you, there aren’t many standouts here. 

One of the most popular trades will be Steele Sidebottom. He’s been increasingly finding form and numbers, and importantly he’s now priced under $500k. Toby Greene is another solid option, and is certainly being praised for his on-field maturity in the media these past few weeks. He’s the 4th best forward right now, priced at the $500k mark, and has 10% ownership. Tom McDonald and Shai Bolton have averaged decent numbers the past few weeks. I’m not personally looking at them, but you do you. 

Second, is the opportunity to repair/improve/change our ruck strategy.

Those who are still dealing with the Matt Flynn ruck strategy could use this time to move to a set-and-forget policy. We have no idea what Leon Cameron’s ruck policy is and whether Shane Mumford will come back sooner rather than later. This week can now be a time where we define our own ruck policy more clearly. 

If you’re not going to go to Gawn or Grundy then perhaps NicNat, Reilly O’Brien, or even Sean Darcy would do the job well. It might be a more conservative route, but then it could pay-off in the long run and give other options elsewhere. Again, you do you. 

Third, is the opportunity to bring some PODs, particularly in the midfield. 

As it stands I only have two of the top 10 midfielders right now. Yes, it concerns me. But I suspect there may be some players on this list that you don’t have either. Think Cam Guthrie, David Mundy, and Jarryd Lyons; all under 6% ownership. Other options outside of the top 10 include Touk Miller (0.6%), Jaeger O’Meara (1.5%), and Luke Parker (1.8%), who have averaged 105+ over the past few weeks. I mean, there’s more to add here too: Adam Trealoar (3.1%), Ollie Wines (1.6%), and Hugh McCluggage (2.2%), who are all scoring well and all able to be snatched up at a decent price. 

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Whatever your injury concerns may be this week I hope you can see this as a time of discovery, Conor McGregor would want you too. And I mean, you’ve got to do those recovery required rage trades too of course. Anyway, you do you. 

Till next week!

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CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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Ripe For The Picking | Round 5
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One thing that separates good coaches from great coaches is that they aren’t just looking at trades for this week. Rather great coaches are looking multiple weeks ahead to be ready to be traded into their teams. In this new series, we look at players who this week and the following two weeks will have likely bottomed out in price and could be a tasty trade target for your side. Each week we’ll focus on the players in DreamTeam, AFLFantasy and SuperCoach you should be forecasting to bring into your side because they are ripe for the picking.

Priced at $531,900, Steele Sidebottom (MID/FWD) has had an up and down start to the season. As yet, he’s still yet to crack a score over 90. With a breakeven of 181, he’s still got a few weeks before his price flattens out. If he averages 90 over the next 3 weeks, he’ll bottom out at around $480,000, and he ripe for the picking heading into round 8.

Depending on Clayton Oliver’s scoring this week against Hawthorn, ‘Clarry’ is either one or two weeks away from his basement price. Priced at $612,000 and breakeven of 161, his round 3 score of 67 is about to fall out of his three game cycle. If we are lucky, we should be able to pick him up for under $600k, not bad for a guy who has scores of 122, 130 & 133 from three of his four games this year.

Over the past few seasons, Caleb Daniel has been a safe top, 10 defenders. But 2021 has seen some indifference to his scoring. He’s had just the one ton, and his score of 19 on the weekend was infuriating for owners. To compound the pain, he’s missing this week through suspension.

‘The Helmut’ has already dropped almost $80k from his starting price and will be a steal for coaches in three weeks once that suspension and score of 19 rolls through his price cycle. If non-owners get lucky, he’ll be a slight chance of dropping marginally under $400,000.

The wait to trade into Lachie Neale continues, especially given his top score for the year is 89. With a breakeven this week of 168, it could be anything from one to three weeks away before coaches jump on. If he bounces back to his best with a 130+ score this week and passes the ‘eye test’, then it might well be worth picking him up at around $550k. Should he have a quieter fortnight, his price could drop right towards $500k, making him an almost impossible to say no option.

Both of Jake Lloyd and Marcus Bontempelli have breakevens just over 150, but in any game both have shown both historically and in 2021 that a score of that ceiling is right in their wheel house. Both have dropped around $30k from their starting price and don’t really fit the ‘bye low’ tag.

Andrew Brayshaw started like a house on fire with scores of 125 & 132. However, the last 2 weeks of scores have seen him now be priced $30k under his starting price and with a breakeven of 186. This week he plays the Crows, and potentially a Ben Keays stopping job awaits. The following week it might be Kangaroo Kayne Turner who did a job on Rory Laird last week.

If you believe he’s good enough to work through the tag pressure he’s currently copping and that he’ll be able to score 110+ for the remainder of the season, then at potentially him being priced at $457k in 2 weeks, he might be your preferred target.

70% of SuperCoach players own Dustin Martin. After back to back scores in the ’80s, the 30% of coaches without him might consider him their prime target over the coming weeks. This week the $545,900 MID/FWD has a breakeven of 146, so a score of 110 will see him drop less than $15k.

We know Dusty loves the big stage and with big matches against probable top 8 teams Geelong, Melbourne, St Kilda and Western Bulldogs over the next month. We might see a return to his round 1 & 2 scoring. You’d certainly want to be on the right side of his scoring if he does.

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In AFLFantasy, given the way the prices cycle through and adjust each week it feels like on any given week any premium is just ‘a week away’ from bottoming out. That said, there are a number of guys that we should consider as by low targets.

In 2-3 weeks, Sam Menegola should be right in the coaches sweet spot. Having already dropped $66k, he’s got another $50k to go before being ripe for the picking around $670,000. Andrew Brayshaw will also be at a similar price point in 2 weeks, and after starting the season with a 105 & 127, he’s shown he’s capable of delivering premiums scores.

Last weekends score of 20 was clearly an aberration for Caleb Daniel. After scores of 111, 86 & 89 this season, he’s clearly a top defensive premium. For non-owners, a combination of this poor score + one week suspension means that in two more matches, he’s forecast to drop another $50k and be priced just under $60,000.

One caveat. In round seven, the Bulldogs play Richmond, and opposition defenders have feasted on fantasy points against the Tigers for years. So it might be worth jumping a week early and that even though he could be ‘$20k’ cheaper the following week, you might have also banked yourself a nice ton.

If Lachie Neale continues to show signs that his back injury is playing little to no impact on his movement, then last seasons best midfielder must be considered. With a breakeven this week of 133 and having dropped already almost $200k from his starting price, it’s getting close to time and picking up the Brownlow Medal winner.

Josh Kelly has a breakeven of 131 and has already leaked $85,000. However, the community hopes that AFLFantasy announces him as part of the upcoming DPP changes and award forward status. If he does, then he’s someone that you should consider. Even with this weird role, he’s still scored 3 times over 90. And given his historical ceiling, that’s a tasty forward proposition.

Our ruck twin towers in Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy appear to have hit the basement. Brodie Grundy has only dropped $15k from his starting price and with a breakeven of 120 agasinst West Coast it’s certainly achievable. The fortnight after The Magpies play the ruckless Bombers and Suns. It could be a painful fortnight for over half the comeptition that don’t own him based on that fixture.

While Max Gawn has dropped $78k, his price tag of $886,000 leaves him with a breakeven of 113. Given he’s averaging 125 in his last 3, it’s looking likely this is as cheap as we might get the Demons skipper.

That might not be the same for Andrew Gaff, but if it’s not, he’s certainly close to it. Outside of his 154 a fortnight ago, the Eagles wingman hasn’t shown AFLFantasy coaches much to be excited by. With him now priced at $745k, that a total price change of $86k. His breakeven of 109 has him likely not moving the bank balance much on either side.

If you were considering Gaff, I’d encourage you to lower your gaze a little more as I believe there is a better option cheaper. Adam Treloar is back playing as a centre bounce midfielder and has scored 106 & 127 in the previous fortnight. Having prodded $92,000 from his starting price, you can now pick him up at $720k with a breakeven of 90. If you have confidence that it won’t be him that’s stuck in Luke Beveridge’s weekly game of ‘you won’t get midfield time even though you’re a midfielder, then pick him.

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Last season, coaches loved the scoring consistency of Sam Menegola. However, in 2021 it’s been a slow start due to injuries. With the unachievable breakeven of 192, you’ve got a few weeks of watching his cash leak before considering him. If he averages 80 over the next month, he could drop as much as $150k from his current price and be nearing the $600,000 range.

If the former Docker and Hawk can get himself up to full fitness and the Cats get their game style going, he’s certainly got the history of showing he can match it with some of the best midfielders.

I’ve already highlighted Andrew Brayshaw in the SuperCoach section, but he’s well worth a mention here too. At his best, he could average 100-110. But so far this season, he’s delivered 2 scores worthy of that while a further two have been in the territory of cash cows. In a fortnight, he’ll be about $50-$60k cheaper and a unique upgrade target.

Western Bulldogs pair Marcus Bontempelli and Caleb Daniel are both $50k cheaper than starting price and have breakevens over 150. When they get on a hot streak, both can match it with the top performing players in their line. In 2-3 weeks, and if they show us something, it could be time to jump on.

After his first ton of the season last week, it’s almost time to get Steele Sidebottom. His price of $782,600 probably has another $30,000-$40,000 more to drop given his breakeven of 149. However, after that, there are 2 reasons why I’d be quickly targetting him.

Firstly, the injury to Taylor Adams should see this premiership Magpie increase his midfield presence and responsibility. Second, In round 7 & 8, they play Gold Coast & North Melbourne. Both teams are leaking DreamTeam scoring to opposition sides.

It’d take a role change back into the midfield to make non-owners convinced. Next week, Josh Kelly will be under $700,000 and have dropped almost $100,000 from his starting price. Three of his past four weeks, he’s scored 90-91, and that’s without minimal midfield minutes. If his centre bounce attendances are up this week, then that might be all we need to see to jump on this midfielder who’s proven he can go 110+ over multiple seasons.

Both Dustin Martin and Clayton Oliver look set to be topline selections in their lines of eligibility. With breakevens of 139 & 140, they could each hit their season low prices. It might only be around $50k cheaper than starting prices, but barring an injury, both rarely drop enough poor scores to leak cash.

You can probably throw Tom Mitchell and Jack Crisp into that mix too, but it’s the price of Lachie Neale that coaches must keep an eye on. Last years Brownlow medal winner already dropped over $158,000, and with a breakeven of 122, he’s starting to flatline in price. Over the past 2 weeks, he’s scored 103 and 96, and should he score like that again this week, then at $730k, he’d be ripe for the picking, especially if he continues to look like he’s overcoming his back injury.

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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AAMI Community Series Review | Magpies Vs Tigers
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Read Time:7 Minute, 10 Second

This was a different game to last night, but there was plenty of entertainment and fantasy interest. Richmond jumped out of the blocks, but Collingwood lifted before the scoreboard got away from them. The game’s intensity levels were up and down, and it did feel like a practice game for the most part, but the final 10 minutes were thrilling as the Tigers just held on. Plenty of talking points, so let’s get to it.

Jordan De Goey: A man that has been dubbed a potential Dusty 2.0 may finally be able to honour that comparison this season. De Goey was huge tonight, playing up the field and impacting the play all over the ground. His numbers matched his impact with 27 touches, 11 marks, 5 clearances and 2 goals. He sent a scare through the Collingwood camp late coming off the ground looking proppy but thankfully returned unharmed. He’s ready and will be a worthy selection this year.

Brodie Grundy: The big fella didn’t look all that interested for most of the night and had his hands full with Nankervis early. He was more involved late once Nank had hit the showers and will surely show more urgency once the real stuff starts. The main concern here was how functional Collingwood looked with Grundy, Cameron and Cox all in the same line up. Grundy is still the main man in the middle when the game is on the line but honestly, it’s hard to see him recreating his 2018-19 scoring if the three talls all play.

Jack Crisp and Brayden Maynard: I’ve lumped these two together because they both look like playing the same fantasy friendly roles as last year and are both viable options once again down back. They had 29 and 24 touches respectively and were both frequently involved in link up plays exiting the defensive 50. Maynard did finish the game with ice on his lower leg after a nasty knock but should be fine.

Jeremy Howe: It was great to see the high flyer return from the serious knee injury he suffered last year and get through unscathed. He played the familiar role off half back and looked pretty good for his 20 touches in only 67% game time. He only took 3 marks but showed great spirit in one play that stood out. Running out from full back, Howe kicked the ground instead of the ball and turned it over. He chased the ball down and laid a big tackle winning a free and showing the old legs are good to go for another season. Could be a shrewd pick.

Isaac Quaynor: Just when you think Collingwood have enough run and dash off half back, this guy puts in a performance like this. Quaynor was clean, composed and put himself in all the right places helping to repel many Richmond attacks. He finished with 23 touches and, entering his third season, is primed for a breakout season.

Brayden Sier: On our watchlist since Treloar’s departure, Sier really grew into the game tonight and showed plenty to suggest he could play good consistent footy in Collingwood’s midfield. He contributed across all four quarters and finished with 22 touches and 4 tackles. The role is his for the taking and if he can take it with both hands, is very tastily priced.

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Just quickly…

Scott Pendlebury: It’s just year in, year out with this guy so it was no surprise that he was huge again tonight. 24 touches and a game high 9 tackles for the fantasy legend and yet another 100 plus average across the formats is on the cards.

John Noble: Yet another decent defender option for the Pies and a good game from him tonight too with 20 touches, 5 marks and 4 tackles. Unfortunately, I think there’s too many ahead of him but a great choice in Drafts.

Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox: We’re not going to pick these guys, but their output is important because of the impact on Grundy as noted earlier. They were huge in the second half, both finishing with 3 goals apiece, and were crucial in Collingwood nearly pinching the win.

Steele Sidebottom: Yikes, last year’s number 1 forward went off early with what we are being told is calf awareness. How could you not already be aware of your calves? Anyway, fingers crossed it was just precautionary, especially for those that nabbed him early in Drafts.

Josh Daicos: There’s been a bit of hype around this son of a gun this pre-season but tonight he didn’t justify it. Matched up on Dusty early gave him an opportunity to learn from the best and although I wouldn’t put a line through him, I’ve cooled on him.

Oliver Henry and Trey Ruscoe: Both showed signs at times but if I had to pick one for round 1, it’d be Henry. He only had 6 touches, but his 5 marks showed he has good awareness for a kid, and with the injuries mounting, is a good chance to debut against the Bulldogs. Ruscoe was ok in patches but was a bit too fumbly and I’d be surprised if he keeps his spot.

Jayden Short: Goodness me, where did that come from?? If that doesn’t shout top 6 defenders this year, then I don’t know what does. I don’t want to overreact to a preseason game but Short looked like short circuiting the stats machine towards the end there. 43 touches, 35 of which were kicks, and 12 marks are crazy numbers. His AF/RDT score of 171 was the second highest in a pre-season match in the last 10 years. Once we’ve calmed down, though, we need to work out if this was just a bit of March madness or is Short about to step into the elite fantasy category?

The short answer is both. He has been building his fantasy game steadily over the last couple of years in Houli’s shadow, but I don’t see him being afforded the same amount of space as tonight in a regular season game. Don’t be too swayed by tonight but if you like him, put him in and he won’t disappoint.

Josh Caddy: Now this one I AM putting down to March madness. Caddy was taking uncontested marks all over the place and, if it wasn’t for Short, would’ve been the fantasy story of the night for the Tigers.

He had 27 touches from his 11 marks and kicked a goal for good measure. Bump him up in your Draft ratings if you were impressed tonight but don’t expect him to become relevant in salary cap comps.

Dustin Martin: Did as he pleased for most of the night and as usual, his ball use and strength was first class. He had 23 touches from three quarters in what was a ho-hum performance. He’s not as prolific a scorer as he used to be but still an assured pick in our forward lines.

Callum Coleman-Jones: It was great to get another look at this guy tonight as we haven’t seen him since his one and only game in the seniors in 2019. I thought he really took his opportunity collecting 12 touches and kicking what ended up being the winning goal.

Standing at 200cms, Coleman-Jones would be a great foil for Nankervis in the absence of Ivan Soldo and could be a handy DPP ruck/forward cash cow for us once his AFL imposed suspension ends.

Just quickly…

Shai Bolton: Was quiet with just the 16 touches but did show flashes of what he can do. A dynamic player when he’s up and going and still worth considering in the forward line, particularly in Draft.


Toby Nankervis: A popular R2 option this year and he showed enough in just 35% game time with 8 touches and 8 hitouts. He did a great job of negating Grundy’s influence and looks set for a solid year.

Riley Collier-Dawkins and Will Martyn: Both got a bit of the ball when they came on but it was hard to get a read on them with such little game time (39% and 21% time on ground). The fact that they got a run with the reigning premiers means they should be close to senior action this year, particularly Collier-Dawkins who has been knocking on the door for some time now.

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#3 Most Relevant | Steele Sidebottom
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Read Time:5 Minute, 1 Second

Every year fantasy footy coaches get some new top tier DPP candidates. For 2021, Collingwood’s Steele Sidebottom joins our forward lines.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Steele Sidebottom
Age: 30
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: MID/FWD

2020 Highest Score: 
126 Vs St Kilda (AFLFantasy)
150 Vs St Kilda (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score: 
161 Vs Geelong | AFLFantasy (2019)
179 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2014)

2020 Average: 
90.8 (AFLFantasy) | 113.5 (Adjusted Average)
109 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $588,000
AFLFantasy Price: $841,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $839,200

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It happens every season and 2020 was no different. The vast majority of our top performing forwards from one season, find themselves not forward eligible the season following. Thankfully, Champion Data have gifted us a replacement top end forward with the addition of Steele Sidebottom.

Despite only playing 9 of the 17 games in 2020 it’s not due to any injury concerns. Instead, it was two unrelated reasons. Firstly he missed four matches due to him breaching COVID protocols after the Magpies loss to GWS. The other was after round 13 so that he could be present for the birth of his child.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he averaged 90.8, or an adjusted 113 which would’ve ‘technically’ count as a career high average in these formats. From his 9 games, he scored 4 tons including a 126 and an additional 3 scores over 80.

In SuperCoach his average of 109 was his highest average since 2014. He delivered 5 tons, with 2 huge scores soaring past 140. Across his year, he had just one score below 93 all season.

The season prior in 2019 he played 21 games and averaged 98.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. It consisted of 10 tons, 4 of which were over 120. He posted an additional 6 scores between 90-99 and had just 3 scores under 80 all season.

His scoring was similar in SuperCoach. In this format, he averaged 94.5 and scored 10 times over 100. 3 of those tons were over 120, and his scoring dropped under 80 in just 5 matches across the season.

Over multiple seasons, Steele Sidebottom has been just outside of many coaches considerations due to his pure midfield status. But with his scoring consistency over that time he’s often found himself outside the top 10-15. However, now as a DPP MID/FWD, these considerations can be adjusted. Take a look at his scoring consistency over his career since 2012

*2020 averaged is adjusted to suit AFLFantasy 1.25 pricing

Between 2017-2019, Steele’s missed just the one match. With Sidey, we’ve got ourselves one of the safest top tier options in our forwards. He’s got a ceiling to match it with everyone else in the line, a high scoring floor and availability to give coaches confidence that he’ll be available most weeks.

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MY TAKE

Looking back at his averages over the past decade, Steele Sidebottom historically is a hiugh 90’s – low 100’s guy. We must consider if we are paying ‘top dollar’ for a guy who is more likely to regress that hold/grow on his average.

An argument could be stacked for that to be the case. But when you consider the other topline forwards, a case can be made that he might be the ‘safest’ if spending big bucks on an option.

Rowan Marshall is still ruck sharing with Paddy Ryder. All it takes is a few games for Ryder to hold the dominant ruck role and his scoring could slide. Josh Dunkley has 0 positional security. Patrick Dangerfield and Isaac Heeney are both coming off injury affected preseasons. Dustin Martin has a history of cruising in third gear for most of the year awaiting footy finals and the ‘real season’ to begin While Dayne Zokro is far from a spring chicken.

What does go against him, is he’s yet another player with the dreaded round 14 bye. With Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, Melbourne, St Kilda, Fremantle, and Collingwood all missing that week, coaches could find themselves starved of points that round if not careful.

The bye round is annoying. But to be honest, you want the best scoring options on your side for as long as possible. It’s why if you don’t choose to start with him in your team, he is someone you do want as an upgrade target.

For me, I’m just biting the bullet and starting with him in DreamTeam. It might be an ‘overpay’, but at least I have the player I believe is the safest top tier forward in 2021. In AFLFanatsy, due to him being priced at an adjusted average of 113, I cannot start with him. With so much value in all lines in this format, I’m maximizing every dollar to get as many rookies off the field as possible. In this format as well as SuperCoach he’s an early upgrade target.

DRAFT DECISION

There’s no question that on draft day Steele Sidebottom will be F1 for their owner on draft day. It feels wrong, but in AFLFantasy he’s likely going in the first round given the lack of top end forward options. In SuperCoach he’s a 2nd round pick for the same reason.

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SuperCoach Player of the Decade | Collingwood Magpies
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Read Time:3 Minute, 21 Second

We’ve decided to look at who I believe has been the best SuperCoach performer from each AFL club over the past ten years. Here’s who I believe it is for the Collingwood Football Club.

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Scott Pendlebury

Of all the clubs I’ve gone through, I found Collingwood the easiest so far. Over the past decade current captain Scott Pendlebury has been a SuperCoach beast. During this decade ‘Pendls’ has averaged over 100 every season with the lowest (2018) was 103.5.

He started the decade as one of the most dominant SuperCoach performers with averages of 110, 129, 124, 126 and 124. During that five-season stretch, he missed only five games. Over 2010-2014 era, Pendls was arguably one of the most dependable captaincy options. Over this period, he had only six scores under 90, that’s an insane 94% of games going 90+.

The pinnacle of this period was his 2011 season, where he scored a ridiculous 21 scores over 100 and a seasonal low of 94. Those 21 tons included 11 scores over 130 and four over 150.

His back half of this decade has been nothing to sneeze at too—multiple years averaging over 115 and nothing below 103. Even though the 120 averages have gone, Pendls still has a robust SuperCoach ceiling. Even last year he posted scores of 133, 135, 138, 138 and 146 as his top five scores.

The moment Scott Pendlebury finishes his AFL career,, he’ll go straight into the SuperCoach hall of fame. His twelve consecutive seasons of averaging 100+ is a thing of fantasy footy folklore.

Scott Pendlebury SuperCoach averages by season.

Who Missed Out

Brodie Grundy is currently the most dominant Magpie from a SuperCoach perspective. Back to back seasons averaging 130 and playing every game in that time has made him the most dominant scorer in the game. And in the three-seasons prior he averaged between 90-97. As prolific a scorer he has been over the previous two seasons it wasn’t enough data over the decade to dethrone his captain.

Much like Pendls, Dane Swan has been a longtime fan favourite. And like Scott was among the most damaging scorers in the early half of the decade. From 2010 – 2013 he posted averages of 126, 122, 121 and 126. Sadly, a career-ending injury at the start of 2016 dashed any chance of him taking the Magpie SuperCoach mantle.

Adam Treloar has had four seasons as a magpie and with three of them over 109 he’s well on his way to forming a strong scoring history as a Pie. However, with only limited seasons at Collingwood, he couldn’t match his scoring over the decade.

Since joining Collingwood via Brisbane in trade, Jack Crisp has been one of the most durable players in the AFL. As a magpie, he hasn’t missed a game and has averaged between 82-95 in the past five seasons. The fact that he’s been a defender during that time does play in his favour, but like others on the list, he just can’t compare to Scott’s scoring over the decade.

Steele Sidebottom is one of the few pies that matches Pendls both for longevity and also durability over the decade. Since 2010 he’s missed only 14 AFL games. However, with just five seasons with an average over 100, but with just one of them higher than 110, his scoring doesn’t match his captain’s ceiling.

Before seeking a trade to Brisbane mid-decade, Dayne Beams was starting to build a nice SuperCoach resume at Collingwood. From 2011 he had four consecutive seasons averaging over 100 including a 115 and a career-high 123. However, a trade to Brisbane after the 2014 season put an end to any chance of Beamer being a contender.

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JLT Players of Interest: Fremantle Vs Collingwood
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Read Time:3 Minute, 51 Second

The Pies ventured over to Joondalup in WA to take on the purple warriors of Fremantle. There was quite a breeze blowing to one end of the ground which made for a clear scoring end. However, the focus for us was on the players and their roles.

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Fremantle

Andy Brayshaw: Looked good. Played midfield and got plenty of it. Might be an awkward price for some but in keeper leagues, he should be highly sought after.

Michael Walters: As promised all pre-season (and last pre-season, and the one before that…), Walters did get stints in the midfield. He did also play some footy up forward though and very likely that’s going to be his lot. A similar average to recent years beckons but could be one to jump on if Freo cop many midfield injuries. As per last year when in midfield, he scored quite well given his TOG.

Luke Ryan: Did take a few kick-ins (along with Wilson), although disposal wasn’t quite up to his usual standard. Potentially one to keep an eye on in SC.

David Mundy: As mooted in recent weeks, he played majority midfield for Freo. He wasn’t amazingly prolific but the role, at least in this game, was good. If he stays midfield there’s no reason to think he won’t end up near the better premium forwards in scoring this year.

Adam Cerra: Looked classy as always but didn’t get a heap of it. Seemed to be running through the midfield somewhat.

Brett Bewley: Could not be said to have had an amazing game, however, did have 13 disposals in only 39% TOG. One to watch further in JLT2.

Jesse Hogan: Coming back from injury, struggled through 2-3 quarters before being rested. Wasn’t limited to the forward 50 either, was often seen in midfield and even down back chasing the ball. Only had a handful of touched on the night however and went scoreless. Seems to have kept his roaming role from the Dees which bodes well for his scoring. Doesn’t seem quite fit enough at present to warrant a starting berth, however.

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Collingwood

Scott Pendlebury: You may have forgotten it but Pendles was in the All-Australian squad last year as one of the best midfielders in the comp. As he has been pretty much every year for more than a decade. The skipper was everywhere in this game, particularly early, and showed his usual class. May not be the upper-echelon fantasy premiums he has been in years gone by but he won’t be far behind. Will still be excellent value in drafts.

Steele Sidebottom: Sidey appears to have flowed from 2018 into 2019 without concern, appearing to have the ball on a string as he racked up 34 touches and a goal. Played basically wherever he wanted.

Brodie Grundy: Seemed slightly rusty but that is likely just due to us measuring him against his amazing standard. Still had 15 touches and 46 hitouts, albeit he was not really up against anyone (Sandi & Darcy being out, Grundy rucked against Lobb & Scott Jones). Nonetheless, nothing not to like here and if nothing else dispelled any suggestions that a pre-season toe injury was a concern.

Dayne Beams: Played midfield, got a lot of it, kicked a goal – basically just did Dayne Beams things. With Taylor Adams out for the first few rounds, it’ll basically be Adams out & Beams in for the Pies during that stretch. Business as usual.

Jack Crisp: A somewhat under the radar defender these days, Crisp kept his high scoring role from last year and had a good outing.

Jamie Elliott: Looked like he was back! Taking marks, kicking goals, almost refusing to celebrate – yep, this was the Jamie we’ve come to know and love. An excellent first outing for him and did not look hampered at all. Someone to consider as a mid-priced option.

Darcy Moore: By no means had the hoped-for monopoly on kick-ins (see Aish, Crisp, etc) but played well and got easily enough of the ball in his role to justify his SC price-tag.

Isaac Quaynor: Strong body for an 18-year-old will hold him in good stead. Looked confident and eager to get involved. Nonetheless, he is trying to break into a suddenly strong and settled Collingwood team (even with Dunn & Scharenberg out) and he may struggle to crack a game early. If named Round 1 though, could be a good rookie option for us.

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mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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