#39 Most Relevant | Jayden Short

Read Time:6 Minute, 12 Second

With Bachar Houli departing the club, many fantasy football coaches expect Jayden Short to take the next step as a premium defender. But will he be able to push his average over 100 in 2021?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jayden Short
Age: 25
Club: Richmond Tigers
Position: Defender

2021 Highest Score:
122 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
129 Vs Collingwood (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
122 Vs West Coast | AFLFantasy (2021)
169 Vs Geelong | SuperCoach (2020)

2021 Average:
93.3 (AFLFantasy)
98.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $535,200
AFLFantasy Price: $783,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $796,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Over the past few years, Jayden Short has emerged from fringe option role player to a core member of the Tigers defensive six. Short is an elite rebounding defender who offers an elite run & carry game and quality decision-making and ball use. Last season in the league, he ranked third for the total number of rebound ’50s, sixth for kicks and bounces and tenth for total metres gained. The departure of some of their aging premiership starts does hurt Richmond, but with him still just 25 years of age, the future is still bright at Tiger land. He’s only now just starting to hit the peak of his powers.

Playing all 22 games last year, Short returned another strong AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season. He posted nine tons, five additional scores 90 plus and only dipped his scoring beanth 80 in four games all year. He’s currently ranked tenth for averages and the sixth-best defender; Short scored 100 more points than Jordan Dawson, who we highlighted just days ago in this series.

The story is just as promising in SuperCoach. By averages based on his 2021 scoring, he’s the sixth-best defender in the game for total points and ranked eleventh for averages. He posted twelve tons, four of the above 120 and just had five games all year where he failed to score over 80. He ended the season with an average of 98.

These numbers have further enhanced his premium status after a breakout in 2020. That year he again played all 17 games, averaged 97 in SuperCoach, scored seven tons, and had three sub 80 scores. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged an adjusted 91 (93 pure) and scored four times over 80, remembering that in the shorter quarters season, that ’80 was the 100 of 2020.’

Increasingly over the past two years, the club has looked to him as the key user out of Defensive 50. And arguably, this could further increase with the departure of Bachar Houli. Historically, Richmond isn’t a fantasy friendly scoring team, but With no Houli, he could have a monopoly as the primary rebounding and distribution avenue.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

So no Bachar Houli through retirement, that must mean we see a bump for Jayden Short? Statistically, there are grounds for that case to be made. In twelve games he played with Houli last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 91.8 & 92.8 in SuperCoach. And for the ten matches he played without him, he averaged 3.4 more points per game in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 12.3 points in SuperCoach. If that small sample size of games holds, that means he could elevate his game to be above 105 in SuperCoach and to touch 100 in AFLFantasyDreamTeam. It’s limited data, but small trends like this can make significant differences for coaches. And given his relatively low ceiling, it’s stats like this that might see him start to turn his 80 games into 90-95’s and his 105-110’s in 120+ performances.

When I look at the defenders available to use this season, I can only see a few defenders with legacy scoring capabilities to average near or over 110. They are Lachie Whitfield, Jake Lloyd and Aaron Hall. All have either seasons (or large portions of one) where they’ve delivered this. However, beyond them, I see a bunch of very talented and reliable scorers, but none that might ‘burn’ me if I go against them in my starting squad. It’s why a combination of Hall/Whitfield/Lloyd can appear to be popular when you look at other coaches teams.

In 2022 we’ve got plenty of consistent 90+ defenders across the formats with players like Daniel Rich, Jack Crisp, Jordan Dawson, Tom Stewart, Dyson Heppell etc. But there’s not a bounty of defenders seemingly able to take the next step into the next level. For coaches to have confidence in starting Short over some of these other options, they’ll need a narrative of how Jayden could outperform them. At 25 years of age, I don’t see a world where scoring regression hits. So the only direction of his scoring is to hold or increase.

Short already has the majority share of the kick-ins. He took 115 last year, Nick Vlastuin is the next in line, but with just 40 all year, it’s a long gap between the two. And the 28 Houli take might be enough to boost Jayden’s Short marginally, but I wouldn’t bank on it making a significant jump in scores.

Will coaches have the luxury to start three premium defensive options this year? Ultimately, it’s still too early to tell. In January every year, it’s easy to build an exciting squad with every cash cow you pick that are ‘certain to play’. But as the weeks go by, suddenly, certain lines stand out for the best value stepping stones and the cash cows with the best scoring and security. So suddenly, your two premium defender lines and six premium midfield line might need some tweaking.

Can he emerge and crack the magically 100 average? I can see a world where this can happen. And the absence of Houli makes that much easier to see. For me, Jayden Short is right in the mix at D3 across all game formats. The downside feels like he’ll hold, but if he gets any of the upsides mentioned above, coaches might have atop five defenders for the season.

DRAFT DECISION

Given where his 2021 averages land him, Jayden Short will be a D1 on draft day. It wouldn’t shock me if someone reached for him as a late third-round selection. But the reality is it’s more normative to see him go through the fourth. I can’t see him sliding outside of the top 40-45 picks overall. He’s too durable and consistent to pass up.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

#40 Most Relevant | Jordan De Goey

Read Time:6 Minute, 57 Second

When Jordan De Goey finally cracked the midfield role, he showcased that he could be a regular 100+ performing player. But with some significant questions marks surrounding him, the range of outcomes is one of the largest in 2022.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jordan DeGoey
Age: 25
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: MID/FWD

2021 Highest Score:
125 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
138 Vs West Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
125 Vs West Coast | AFLFantasy (2021)
151 Vs Geelong | SuperCoach (2020)

2021 Average:
84.3 (AFLFantasy)
85.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $463,500
AFLFantasy Price: $707,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $718,800

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

One of the hyped players of the 2021 preseason was Magpie Jordan De Goey. Why? Because the now-former coach Nathan Buckley was vocal about increasing his role in the midfield from a part-time to permanent. However, when push came to shove, it didn’t eventuate for the first portion of the year. It took longer than fantasy coaches had hoped, but by the time Jordan was released into an exclusive midfield role, we finally saw the fruit of why many had jumped on to start the year.

It was a tale of two seasons in one for the De Goey express. Over the whole season, the stats line masks both the horrible first nine games, while it could discredit how just how dominant his scoring was to end the year. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 94, scored eight tons, three over 120 and an additional four over 90. He’s currently ranked ninth among forwards available in 2021.

While in SuperCoach, he finished the season with an average of 85, scoring eight tons, two of them were over 120, and he had a further four scores above 80. He’s currently ranked sixteenth by average among all forwards.

In the first nine games, he averaged 57 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 61.5 in SuperCoach.these numbers do include an injury impacted single digit score is here he was subbed out early the pies round 5 clash. There was just 1 ton & 0 games with 20+ disposals in those nine games. However, from round in the final 11 games in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 106, including seven tons, three of them over 120 DT – avg 106, 7 tons, three over 120 and just one score below 90. Similarly, SuperCoach averaged 104, posting seven tons, two over 120 and had over 20 possessions in ten of the last eleven matches.

In the preseason, a regular activity, I encourage all coaches to map out who they think will be the top 15-20 players by ranks in each line. Mitch Duncan, Tim Taranto & Josh Dunkley are likely top-five scoring forwards across the formats. But the agreement amongst the ‘experts’ of the best forwards diversifies drastically in the top 10 beyond them. For example, if given the exclusive midfield role again like this year, Jordan De Goey is destined to average over 100 in that role and be potentially priced 20 points per game of value unders, making him near impossible value to pass.

Jordan has shown fantasy pedigree as a forward before. In 2018-2019 he averaged in the low to high 80’s across the formats. That’s when he played a 60/40 MID/FWD split. But a split role isn’t what brought the 2021 back half ceiling. If he does have a split comparable to that, then I won’t want anything to do with JD5.

There’s plenty of ‘if’s’ surrounding Jordan, but should they all land on the elements land in his favour, then every fantasy coach will want him in their teams.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

The possibilities surrounding Jordan De Goey and what might happen this coming season are some of the broadest outcomes of anyone. There’s a world where he might not even be on an AFL list, right through to him being one of the best forward eligible guys in the game.

Ultimately any fantasy prospects could be voided depending on the outcome of the upcoming court case. Depending on the verdict, he faces some serious legal consequences and being dropped from an AFL list might be the least of his concerns. The New York Criminal Court will decide his fate on January 18. From that point on, we’ll know if he’s even a consideration in 2022 or not.

We see it almost every year; when a new coach takes over, we see game styles and structures of teams undergo massive overhauls. Just look at the game style changes of Adelaide & North Melbourne in the past two seasons under new coaches. Under Craig McRae, what style of footy will they play, and how much will they invest the midfield roles into the next generation of Pies?

The preseason news coming from the club is Brayden Maynard is being moved up the ground to provide some toughness and speed through the midfield. Do the mature hands of Taylor Adams, Jack Crisp, Steele Sidebottom, and Scott Pendlebury take most minutes? Or does McRae fully embrace the rebuild and give heavy opport7nities to the kids? Over the past few offseasons, the magpies have drafted heavily with midfield talent. Finlay Macrae, Reef McInnes, Nick Daicos, Caleb Poulter, Trent Bianco, Arlo Draper and Cooper Marley deserve time. But how much will it be? And how much will his addition impact De Goey?

It won’t shock me if McRae decides to build a midfield unit around him. But, equally, he’s so damaging forward that they look to use the likes of Jamie Elliot, Oliver Henry & Will Kelly as the building blocks around him inside forward 50.

Regardless of the outcome of the court case, you cannot start him. Why? He’s not been in the AFL environment all preseason! He’s lost trust currency with his teammates and the new coaching unit. Even if he is allowed back, he will be starting at the back of the pack for footy ‘touch’ & arguably fighting to get further midfield opportunities again.

I’m convinced that he will start slow if he gets back into the AFL system. The pies have spent months planning and training without him for the preseason. So if anything, I suspect a slow build to start the year with MID/FWD splits to begin the year. And then midseason, if that midfield role does eventuate, he is absolutely someone to consider as an upgrade target.

DRAFT DECISION

Jordan De Goey is a tough one to rank. On potential, if the role aligns, he could be a top 5 Fwd. However, he could also float in the ’80s and be ranked from 10th-20th as per previous seasons. Additionally challenging is the uncertainty about if he plays footy at all. Thankfully we’ll know the verdict In a week of the court case and the Magpies suspension.

I won’t want to spend an early rounds draft rank on him if he’s allowed to play. Due to the lack of AFL environment around him, I think he will start slow and build into his scoring. But that probably means in many drafts I’ll miss out on him. As most all it takes is one coach to be bullish on his upside early, and he’s gone. I stated earlier. There’s a world where he’s a top-five ranked forward.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

#41 Most Relevant | Jordan Dawson

Read Time:5 Minute, 51 Second

It’s been a long time since the Adelaide Football Club has had excitement around the club with a significant new addition. Finally, Jordan Dawson brings his booming right foot home to South Australia, and fantasy football coaches are hoping the way he ended last season is a sign of things to come.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jordan Dawson
Age: 24
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Defender

2021 Highest Score:
158 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
158 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
158 Vs Gold Coast| AFLFantasy (2021)
158 Vs Gold Coast| SuperCoach (2021)

2021 Average:
88.8 (AFLFantasy)
101 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $550,300
AFLFantasy Price: $745,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $757,300

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

One of the biggest players to move clubs during the most recent trade window was Jordan Dawson to the Adelaide Crows. The extra media attention was due to the breakout performances he showed across the season. The 191cm rebounder is best known for his booming left boot that often would pinpoint his teammates in all areas of the ground.

Dawson is often referred to as a 70-metre player, where he’d run and carry the ball for 20 metres and then deliver the ball by foot the final 50. In 2021 he ranked 16th in the league for total metres gained and 19th for rebound ’50s. He ranked elite in the league for disposals with an average of 22.3 per match, tackles and metres gained (467.6) to finished third in the Swans’ Best and Fairest.

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, last year, he posted five tons, two over 120, including a final round of 158 and seven scores under 80. He ended the season ranked 12th for defenders by averages and seventh for total points. While in SuperCoach, he delivered nine tons, four of them over 120, including 141, 145 & 158. To go with this high ceiling is a relatively higher scoring floor. Last year he had just four scores beneath 80. He’s currently the seventh-highest averaging defender in the game and fifth for total points. Only Jack Ziebell, Jake Lloyd, Daniel Rich and Jack Crisp scored more.

It’s undoubtedly a strong season for Dawson, but his scoring got better as the season went on. After the bye rounds, Dawson found himself picking up the opportunity to push higher up the ground and play up through the wings. As a result, his average ballooned. In the first thirteen games of the year, he averaged 80.8 in AFLFantasty/DreamTeam. But post-bye in his final nine games, he averaged 100. While In SuperCoach, he averaged 92 pre bye and 114 post-bye.

2021 was a culmination of the gradual build in his fantasy game over the past few seasons. From twenty games in 2019, he averaged 83 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and posted four tons and four additional scores over 90. For SuperCoach, he averaged 86, scoring six tons and four more 90+. And during the shortened quarter games of 2020, he averaged 66.3 (adjusted 83) in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 85 in SuperCoach.

At 24 years of age and moving back to play for the club he supported as a child, fantasy coaches will be hoping that the scoring trend of last year continues. If it does, then Dawson will be a genuine top tier defender in 2022.

AFL trade news 2021: Adelaide Crows recruit Jordan Dawson on returning home, the deal, new position | The Advertiser

MY TAKE

Anytime a player moves AFL sides, the first question to consider is always about what role they play in the structure of their new side. Crows coach Matthew Nicks when asked about how they’ll Jordan Dawson, told the media that he’s someone that can fill multiple roles. From playing between the flanks on the wing, as an inside midfielder and across the halfback.

Over the past few seasons, the Crows have lacked in multiple areas of the ground. A common thread for teams at the bottom of the ladder. The recruitment of Dawson adds a significant increase to the quality of ball use. If you’ve watched the Crows over the past three years, you’ll have observed how poorly they’d often deliver the ball inside forward 50. It’s why I’d love to see him play a role as a half-forward/wingman for the Crows, comparable to what Lachie Whitfield has done for GWS. There, his lethal left foot can have the most significant impact on the scoreboard impact.

Jordan still has the opportunity to score well at his new club, but the Swans list is anywhere from 12-24 months ahead in development to that of Adelaide. The reality is the quality of the Swans forward group is superior to the Crows. In SuperCoach, where to score involvements and effective disposals are rewarded, it might just clip his scoring ceiling.

Speaking of SuperCoach, he’s the seventh most expensive defender. And as good as he might be in that format, I can’t start him. Not precisely because of Jordan, but more because I believe there are better options at a lower price. Remembering Dawson has only had this breakout season and is in a new structural set-up at the Crows. I couldn’t pick him at $50k more than Lachie Whitfield.

As consistent as he was in scoring for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam beyond his final round heroics, he lacked the ceiling that could threaten to take a season away from you early if you don’t own them. As a result, a combination of that plus the unknowns of sitting into the new system mean he’s an upgrade option for me in these formats.

I believe Jordan will be a popular pick in all formats of the game, and if he carries on the scoring this year that he ended up within 2021, then he’s a serious candidate for being a top tier defender in 2022.

DRAFT DECISION

Based on points scored and defender options available, Jordan Dawson is sure to be a D1 option in SuperCoach and a D1/2 in UltimateFooty. But the more intriguing conversation to have is about how people draft the upper echelon of defenders this year. The top tier of forwards is high scoring and thin in depth. By ranking the top15 onwards, it starts to get hairy. This could see coaches value F1 & F2’s in the opening four or five rounds of a draft by osmosis. Without proper consideration, it could mean players like Dawson may be available later in some drafts than where he should go due to others overvaluing positional lines.

Depending on the draft, Dawson’s draft range could be anywhere from the third to the fifth round.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

#42 Most Relevant | Jarrod Witts

Read Time:7 Minute, 38 Second

The 2021 season was a disaster for the Suns and Jarrod Witts, with an ACL injury ending his season. Now entering a new year, and with a significant discount, is he primed to be a strong stepping stone option this year?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jarrod Witts
Age: 29
Club: Gold Coast Suns
Position: Ruck

2021 Highest Score:
110 Vs North Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
115 Vs North Melbourne (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
154 Vs GWS Giants| AFLFantasy (2019)
152 Vs GWS Giants| SuperCoach (2019)

2021 Average:
86.3 (AFLFantasy)
87.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $380,300
AFLFantasy Price: $572,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $588,900

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2021 was a disaster for the Gold Coast Suns, and it started in round three when against the Adelaide Crows, Jarrod Witts went down with a season end ACL knee injury. It was a cacophony of issues in the ruck for the Suns from that point on. Players like Chris Burgess and Caleb Graham were experimented with in the rucks. But to no surprise, it didn’t work. Thankfully, he’s on the mend for round one for the Suns, Jarrod and fantasy coaches, and it couldn’t come soon enough.

Despite only playing 2 & 2/3 of a game last year, he did show some of his fantasy football abilities. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored 83, 110 & was on track for another 90+ performance before going down with his ACL injury on 66 in the third term. He ended the season with an average of 86. While in SuperCoach, he scored 75, 115 & and the ACL affected 72 meant his average stagnated to an 87. In both of these formats, he’s been given a discount that will see him priced in the mid-high ’60s.

The appeal for those considering Witts as a starting squad option is more about what he can do at his price point as a proven performer. Since moving to the Suns in 2017, he’s averaged in SuperCoach 94, 88, 99 & 93 before last year. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTEam between 2017-2020, he averaged 92, 93, 104 + an adjusted average of 80 in 2020. Yes, he’s coming back off an ACL (and we’ll talk about it), but we are paying for someone at the price range of the mid ’60s across the formats, which has upwards of 30 ppg of value based on his best.

There’s a notion that you need to start set & forget rucks for success in salary cap formats. You don’t need to isolate rucks from other lines. The approach isn’t set & forget = success. Instead, success comes by identifying the value in all positions, making sure you have captaincy choices, and the best rookies are being played on the field. Without a doubt, starting Matt Flynn was a fantastic call at R2 last season. Yes, it provided pain points, but in the early rounds, he was a godsend. Jarrod certainly isn’t priced at the value of Flynn, but what he can provide is a clear and proven value. And for those struggling to be confident in locking down the best ruck pairing, Witts can offer a helpful stepping stone to clarity and success.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Some players in the 50 Most Relevant, especially at this stage, have some big question marks about them. Some are about the fluid and uncertain role, but for Jarrod Witts, that isn’t the question mark. As the club’s skipper, he’s in the best 22 and cannot play any other position beyond ruck. If he’s fit, he’s playing as the ruckmen!

The first significant hesitation that comes in picking Witts is surrounding the return from his ACL. The club has been relatively quiet about his recovery, but internally they are confident he’ll get some practice games in ahead of round one. But how do key positions players and ruckmen generally fair after coming back from an ACL? Over the past decade, Max Gawn, Sam Draper, Ivan Soldo and Sam Naismith have all done an ACL. The latter three are not fantasy footy premium rucks, while Gawn’s happened early in his career. So, whatever dip in data that was evident is partially limited due to their already low fantasy numbers. I could’ve included Tex Walker, Jon Patton or even Jeremy Howe in the research, but all are very different players to Witts and none play in the ruck. Therefore, in the past 5-6 seasons, the best player contrast is Nic Naitanui.

In 2016 before his first ACL injury, NicNat averaged 84.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 105.8 in SuperCoach. Upon his return in 2018, his average dipped four points per game in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and nine in SuperCoach. NicNat then did a second ACL that season and saw a further drop away in his three games played in 2019. That year he averages 72.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 93.6 in SuperCoach of minimal game time.

It’s far from complete science, and both rucks are very different to each other. But it does confirm the anecdotal notion that ‘talls’ coming off an ACL do regress in scoring the following season. As much of a concern for some as the possible scoring regression off an ACL is for some coaches, I have two other matters that have much greater potency.

Firstly, what is the percentage split of the ruck/forward time given to Mabior Chol? The former Tiger left Punt Road for regular AFL opportunities, and at the Suns, he’ll get it. Chol’s athleticism will help support both Witts in the ruck and Ben King up forward. But what’s the percentage of the split? The tighter the spit, the fewer midfield minutes for Witts and the likely drastic dip in scores. Is the split tighter over the first few rounds to build Jarrod into the season? Or will he be able to resume the high workload from the onset?

Second, and arguably the most significant, is how Jarrod Witts scores his points. He’s always been a heavy hitout dependant scorer. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam in some seasons, it’s made up north of 40% of his scores. Between 2017-2019 as a Gold Coast player, he averaged 38, 39 & 45 hitouts. I’ve opted not to include 2020 data here, not suit a narrative. Instead, the shorter quarters meant all stats columns were slashed. In 2021 we saw the ruck game change. Last year only four ruckmen averaged over 30 hitouts a game. Brodie Grundy & Max Gawn with 32, Nic Naitanui with 31 & Paddy Ryder 30. This fall away in hitouts has multiple variables, but the takeaway for those considering Witts is that it’s a cap that could impact his scoring.

To rule him in or out of our fantasy sides at this point is silly. He needs to be on every coaches watchlist. At best, Witts could be the best value R2 for the season. He’s averaged 90+ multiple times across all formats. And if he did that again, it’d be a masterstroke for coaches. Equally, the inverse is that he starts slow and never really makes a significant dent in either the points on field or cash generation columns.

In the preseason and trial games, you need to watch:

– The RUC/FWD splits with Witts and Chol

– Does Witts have a monopoly on the CBA’s

– Is he moving freely and uninhibited

– Has stronger value options appeared in the ruck line at comparable/cheaper prices

The answers to these questions in the preseason will ultimately inform your decision to pass or start with him.

DRAFT DECISION

If you are in league with some coaches that drafts on name value, then Jarrod Witts probably will be the 6th or 7th ruck off the board and go inside the top 10 rounds. Madness, but I can see it happening as the annual ruck run panic sets. Depending on the league, he could be a super late pick up for those looking to select a ruck with one of their final picks. I don’t mind Witts in a draft, especially if it’s in the back third, and you can handcuff his selection by also drafting Mabior Chol.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

#43 Most Relevant | Aaron Hall

Read Time:6 Minute, 46 Second

Nobody predicted it, but in 2021 Aaron Hall became a season-defining player. If you had him, you had success. Without him, you struggled. Now he enters a new season with a hefty price tag, and the question is can he go big again in 2022?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Aaron Hall
Age: 31
Club: North Melbourne
Position: Defender

2021 Highest Score:
143 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
141 Vs GWS Giants (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
156 Vs Geelong| AFLFantasy (2017)
150 Vs Brisbane | SuperCoach (2015)

2021 Average:
108.9 (AFLFantasy)
105.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $585,800
AFLFantasy Price: $914,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $929,00

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It was the premium season that nobody saw coming! Aaron Hall completely reinvited himself as a rebounding defender and proved to be the player that almost single handily defined the success of fantasy coaches seasons in 2021. Based on averages per game, he ranked first in the AFL for metres gained, second in kicks, third for rebounds ’50s, 8th for uncontested possessions and tenth for marks. Hall dominated the ball coming in and out of the Kangaroos defensive 50.

From an AFLFantasy perspective, he delivered a stunning season scoring 14 tons, with 12 of them (85%) going at 120 or higher. To go with his ceiling is his scoring basement with just three games under 90 all year. Of those three matches, one was subbed out with a concussion, and the other was subbed into the game. So, in reality, when playing full games, it’s just one game beneath 90. Hall’s ranked as the top defender with the highest average and is ranked second in total points by just 60 to Jack Crisp. Not bad for a guy who missed a few games and had two limited times on ground games.

The scoring is just as impressive in SuperCoach. He posted 16 tons, 7 of them were over 120, and he had just four scores under 100 all years. Remember two of these; he was involved as a sub. He ended the year where he’s now ranked as the 8th best defender for total points and fifth for averages.

As much as 2021 was a shock, it wasn’t a total surprise. Hall’s got fantasy pedigree in his past. When he played for Gold Coast in the final seven games of 2015, he averaged 106 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 112 in SuperCoach. The following year in 2016, he played 17 games, averaged 105 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and scored 11 tons, three over 120, including a 151. All year he had just two scores under 90. And in SuperCoach Hall averaged 95, which consisted of seven tons with three over 120.

Hall is a fantasy performer, and while durability has been a legacy concern, barring a concussion last year, it was a pretty worry-free season. If he can hold, let alone grow his scoring power, not only will he likely be the top defender in 2022 choosing to pass on him in your starting side could be catastrophic to your plans for success.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

A narrative in the fantasy footy community suggests that Aaron Hall is priced at his max potential. But that’s a false view. He’s not. The scoring of his 2021 is better than his average suggests. From the 18 matches he played in full, Aaron averaged 118 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 114 in SuperCoach. That’s approx ten points per game of value inbuilt to his price point. So to suggest he’s at ‘max’ price is inaccurate. Arguably, he’s underpriced on his ability.

A more helpful conversation that creates questions around Hall isn’t around his scoring capability. A better one is to ask the possible game style of North. Last season he and Ziebell often had a monopoly on possessions as the Roos attempted to maintain the ball to stem the bleeding. Does the game style evolve? As the team improves, I’d propose that the need to play defensive possession heavy footy isn’t required.

North’s defensive structure should look different also. The free agency departure of Robbie Tarrant is significant. Who replaces him? Some extra help should come with Aiden Corr. After joining the club as a free agent, he played just two matches last year. Does that impact the structures? And by osmosis Hall’s monopoly on the rebounds?

Additionally, Luke McDonald missed three-quarters of the 2021 season. Just twelve months ago, it was him that had the quarterback role. Does he gain it back? We wrote about Luke last season in the 50 most relevant about this exact function. The reality is there are several unknowns about North that could impact his fantasy performances.

The magic number (how prices and formulated based on averages) is at the highest point at the start of the season. To put it simply, if you believe Hall can outperform his current price points, then he’ll hold or grow that price. If not, even a scoring hold on current average holds, let alone some regresses, will mean he’ll drop in price. You cannot start if you don’t think he starts with a bang.

On the flip side, a players price doesn’t matter once you own them. If your starting Hall, it’s because you’re confident, regardless of game style or durability concerns, That he’ll carry on as his 2021 season did. If you start, you believe he’s in the top handful of defenders, and your banking on his ceiling games appearing in some of the early games. All it would take is him delivering a 5 round average of 115-120 to start the season and have his acquiring him starts to get challenging. With your first few premiums upgrades, you’re looking to take advantage of premiums that have dropped in value, not pay up to get someone.

The selection or non-selection of Hall is a big one. I genuinely believe it can define your season and quickly. The decision for coaches could be one they contemplate long into the preseason. For some, he’ll be a cause of celebration. Others a moment of lament. To spend this much salary cap, I’d need to. Be confident he can go 110+ over the first six weeks and then maintain a 100-105 minimum for the whole season. Some might be, but I’m not confident currently. I need to see the defensive structure, players used and game style at North before committing to him. Right now, he’s an upgrade target, but the preseason is long, and things can change for better or worse.

DRAFT DECISION

Undoubtedly Aaron Hall is a D1. And without question, he’ll be gone after the second round. But at what point? For me, I don’t see him, nor could I advocate for someone spending a first-round pick on him. Early in a draft, you cannot take a risk on anyone. And even the most bullish Hall supporter can acknowledge some risk is around. Someone will bite in the second round. He was so good for so long last year someone will find him irresistible. For me, I have a few defenders ranked ahead of him. And where I’d be happy to take him based on ranks would mean that I’d be missing drafting him in most drafts.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

#44 Most Relevant | Daniel Rich

Read Time:6 Minute, 7 Second

Over the past two seasons, Daniel Rich has been one of the most undervalued and consistent defensive premiums. It’s time to shine a light on potentially one of the best low ownership premiums of 2022.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Daniel Rich
Age: 31
Club: Brisbane Lions
Position: Defender

2021 Highest Score:
131 Vs Fremantle (AFLFantasy)
138 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
131 Vs Fremantle| AFLFantasy (2021)
149 Vs Fremantle| SuperCoach (2009)

2021 Average:
98 (AFLFantasy)
107 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $582,700
AFLFantasy Price: $823,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $836,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Daniel Rich has found himself flying under the radar for the past few seasons as a consistent top-end defensive premium in fantasy football. However, his elite kicking has long been lauded since his debut back in 2009. Last year he ranked first in the AFL for total kicks, rebounds 50’s and metres gained. He also rated 11th for effective disposals and 17th for intercepts. These stats highlight that Rich isn’t just a beautiful kick but arguably among the most elite rebounding halfbacks in the AFL today.

From a fantasy footy perspective, he delivered personal best averages across all game formats. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored nine tons, including a career high 131. He had an additional seven scores of 90+ and just once, his scoring dipped below 80. He’s now ranked as the third best defender based on points scored and sixth for average.

Across in SuperCoach, he was even more prolific with his points scoring. From 22 games, he registered 13 tons, with 7 of those being above 120. In addition, he had six games between 90-99 and only failed to score over 80 in just two matches. By the close of the season, he ranked fourth amongst all defenders by average and was the top scoring defender of 2021 in SuperCoach.

Last year was undoubtedly a career season, but he’s been building his scoring towards this over the past few. In 2020 from thirteen games, he averaged 90 in SuperCoach, scoring four tons and an additional four games over 90. While in AFLFantasy, he averaged an adjusted 84.25. Back in 2019, he averaged 97 in SuperCoach, which featured 10 tons and eight more scores of 80+. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored six tons, ten additional 80 performances and an average of 88.

So is Daniel Rich relevant? You bet! He’s a super consistent performer, and while he may lack the ceiling scoring of others in specific formats, he’s a reliable and durable premium candidate. If you’ve loved owning Tom Stewart and his low scoring deviation over the past few years, then Rich is someone in a similar vein. In some formats, he’s even better than him.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Whenever a player knocks out a personal best season at the age of 31, I always have a level of scepticism. Daniel Rich, who turns 32 in June, had a personal best in disposal number, AFLFantasy & SuperCoach averages. Many at his age believe regression is the only possible outcome for his fantasy scores. And that opinion is undoubtedly justified but by no means a certainty.

I see a world where not only does Rich’s monopoly of the footy in the half-back continue, but it could also increase. The retirement of Grant Birchall could further open up him being not just the preferred, but even the sole rebounder of the football from the Lions back half. The experiment with Callum Ah Chee hasn’t worked, and despite Keidean Coleman growing in a role down back, I can’t see him clipping the scoring off Daniel. The most likely inclusion into the Brisbane backline is the new draftee Darcy Wilmont. His dashing run and carry could add another elite sting to the Lions bow, but as a first-year player, it won’t affect Rich drastically. As you can see, the world where he holds his scoring and ball distribution monopoly can easily remain.

Every fantasy coach plays with specific strategies and views. For some, a player with high scoring ceiling is seen more favourably, while others will accept a lower ceiling for scoring consistency and fewer basement scores. It’s the age old Ceiling Vs Consistency debate. For coaches wanting to start Daniel Rich, it would be because you highly value his low scoring variation. The theory would be that for what he doesn’t provide for you in regular 125+ ceiling games, he makes up for it with minimal sub 80 performances. By osmosis, you can build you a side of consistent performances and then target other players that might boast the ceiling scores you require.,

To start the season, the premiums you select not only do you want guys that you believe will be in the top handful for the year but. I also believe you should pursue players that could hurt opposing coaches. Premiums can create separation between you & the pack and make others ‘chase’ to own them. A player like Daniel Rich, who doesn’t have a frequency of ceiling in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, is someone I’d feel comfortable taking on, knowing that his scoring ceiling won’t see his price increase too drastically start with. There is a greater ceiling capability in SuperCoach, given the seven 120+ performances last year, but I still believe he won’t shift too far off his starting price.

To go with Rich’s scoring consistency across the formats is an equally dependable ‘games played’ column. Since 2015 he’s missed just ten games and has only missed multiple games in a year for two of those seasons. I believe 2022 is his last hoorah as a premium defender. I think the regression comes in 2023. The only format I think you can start with him is SuperCoach, but I’ll be looking elsewhere based on my structure and preferences.

DRAFT DECISION

How people choose to draft in the first and second rounds of a draft is fascinating. Ultimately, it’s partially dictated too by your drafting position. Without question, Daniel Rich will be a D1 for a coach, but how early will some coaches jump for him? Potentially in some SuperCoach formats, he could go as early as the later portions of the second round. More commonly, I think he’ll go inside the third round across the formats but could be a fourth-round option in AFLFantasy scoring if a league doesn’t value defenders and instead is more prominent on the midfielders.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

#45 Most Relevant | George Hewett

Read Time:7 Minute, 39 Second

For multiple seasons the Blues have strived to get the midfield group string enough to compete for finals. With the addition of George Hewett, he may just add the missing ingredient to send the Navy Blue back into September action.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: George Hewett
Age: 26
Club: Carlton Blues
Position: Midfield/Defender

2021 Highest Score:
106 Vs GWS Giants (AFLFantasy)
134 Vs GWS Giants (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
113 Vs Melbourne| AFLFantasy (2017)
154 Vs Brisbane| SuperCoach (2019)

2021 Average:
63.9 (AFLFantasy)
73.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $399,000
AFLFantasy Price: $537,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $545,300

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For some, the inclusion of new Carlton midfielder George Hewett might be the first big surprise of the fifty most relevant. Don’t worry; there’s potentially a couple more coming throughout this series. But when we look at the player, the forecast role he plays in his new side, his positional status and price point, then he’s someone your need to at least consider.

2021 was a challenging season for George Hewett. He found himself in and out of the team and battled to lock down a consistent role in the developing Swans midfield. At his best, he’s a reliable midfielder capable of getting hands to the footy first at stoppage and negating opposing teams top midfielders. However, at Sydney, he spent time rolling through the midfield and playing some defensive roles on opposition damaging forwards.

From an AFLFantasy perspective, he posted just one ton last year, but it was in his side’s elimination final loss to GWS, so it wasn’t in the fantasy season proper. However, over the whole season, he seven scores over 80, including four over 90. While in SuperCoach, he posted four tons, including 134 and four additional scores of 80+. So yes, it’s not outstanding in isolation, but when you look into the data, there are some promising scoring signs especially given his price point.

In the ten games last year where Hewett won 20 possessions or more, his average is 81.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 90.8 in SuperCoach. The vast majority of these games were when Hewett was used in his preferred midfield role. That’s approximately 18 points per game, more than his price point across the formats. To go one step further, using the current 2021 averages for defenders would rank him 26th overall in AFLFantasy and SuperCoach.

Statistically, you can make numbers do anything, but these midfield scores reflect his 2019 season where he played as a defensive minded midfielder. He averaged 88 in SuperCoach and scored six tons and seven additional scores over 80. While in AFLFantasy, he averaged 75, scored three tons six additional 80+ scores. Amazing again? No! But show the value of anywhere from 15-20 points per game of growth on his current price point.

Without question, I’m picking and choosing the games to make him look good. But that’s the point. At his price, if Hewett pits it all together for the first six to eight weeks as he has done previously, then coaches will have a flying start to the season. Both from a cash generation and a points on-field perspective.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Over the past few seasons, Carlton has been the team that’s ‘dominated’ the offseason with winning the trade and draft period, but in reality, by the time round one has come around, they’ve been forgotten by the footy public and genuinely considered an outsider chance at best of making finals. The addition of Adam Cerra as the most notable move in the offseason is undoubtedly a good one, but the addition of George Hewett could be even more critical.

We’ve known about the pedigree of Sam Walsh since the moment he walked into the AFL. While skipper Patrick Cripps has historically been a contested beast, the Blues midfield has fallen away drastically beyond that. They’d hoped players like Zac Williams, Will Setterfield and even Matt Kennedy would be the next tier of support their two stars. Sadly none of them worked to the level desired thus far. However, I think the addition of Hewett could be a masterstroke.

The most significant support Carlton’s midfield has needed has been someone to apply defensive pressure on the opposition midfielders. Having a player/ that can fulfil this function would allow the Cripps, Walsh & Cerra’s of the world to play with their regular attacking flair & not get defensively exposed. George can do this for Carlton. Hewett brings experience, leadership, consistent effort and a high defensive footy focus. I say defensive midfielder, not tagger on purpose because I don’t see that exclusive lockdown role being necessary or part of the Blues game style moving forward.

Even though he’s listed as a defender/midfield in fantasy footy, I assure you he’s been targetted to play a midfielder. Carlton doesn’t need another half-back or another pressure forward. He’s been recruited to play accountable roles in the midfield. Whenever a player listed outside of the midfield in fantasy footy is playing in the midfield, that’s a viable watchlist option. And if he can repeat the scoring fortunes of new teammate Ed Curnow who has previously held this role, then it could be a goldmine for coaches who jump on Hewett.

Between 2016-2019 Ed Curnow played this role perfectly. He still won plenty of the footy but was primarily focussed on negating the influence of the oppositions top midfielders. Over these four years, Curnow averaged 102, 88, 100 & 89 in AFLFantasy while he went at 101, 86, 102 & 92 in SuperCoach. If Hewett can match or even get near these numbers across the formats, then he’s not just a valuable stepping stone defender but rather a legitimate top 10 defensive candidates.

As we look at our starting squad selection, it’s the backline that is the place to take some risks. We’ve got some apparent top tier forward premium and value options. It’s the same across the ruck and midfield lines also. But in the backline, the question can pop up quickly.

Can you start players like Jack Crisp, Daniel Rich and Tom Stewart, who are arguably maxed out price? Will North Melbourne’s game style allow the continued easy ball accumulation for Aaron Hall and Jack Ziebell? Does Jayden Short increase with the absence of Bachar Houli? Statistically, it’s not a certainty. Will Lachie Whitfield ever give us another entire season? The same goes for Shannon Hurn? While does Christian Salem or Jordan Dawson score enough to push the top 10, or are they just good but not great options?

Without too much pushing, the possible top tier of defence holes starts to open dramatically. It’s why a player like Hewett can allow two things. One, provide a potential value stepping stone for some cash generation while also giving you a look at which defenders are emerging as premiums in 2022.

At his price point, he enables you three very viable situations in the first few rounds:

If he comes flying out of the gate with good scoring early, you’ve got yourself a winner and can choose to upgrade to a fallen premium early or hold as premium.
If he struggles to deliver early, he can be moved quickly onto the firing stepping stone.
If he stinks, he can be moved quickly into the cash cow you missed and free up some cash to potentially patch another hole in your team.

In reality, the risk of starting him is minimal if you have a plan, set a scoring benchmark for him and then execute based on the results. It’s why for me, in multiple formats, I’ve got Hewett right in the Mix at D3/D4.

DRAFT DECISION

I can see two scenarios unfolding in drafts for George Hewett. Scenario One: Someone reaches for him at a D3 position hoping that he can become a top 30 averaging defender. Scenario Two: He slides in certain leagues to become nothing more than bench cover. The reality is he’s likely to go somewhere between the two spots. However, if he gets more preseason hype by clarifying his role, these ranges could move drastically.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

#46 Most Relevant | Josh Kelly

Read Time:7 Minute, 31 Second

After a quiet first six weeks of the season, Josh Kelly stormed home to deliver his usual high output. With some potential value built into his price, is he set to be a top 10 midfielder in 2022?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Josh Kelly
Age: 26
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score:
152 Vs North Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
148 Vs Richmond (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
166 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2018)
205 Vs Carlton| SuperCoach (2018)

2021 Average:
103.7 (AFLFantasy)
106.9 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $582,200
AFLFantasy Price: $922,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $884,300

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Long time followers of the Coaches Panel will be well familiar with my fondness for Josh Kelly. For multiple years he’s been one of ‘my boys’, and I’ve owned him more times in every format than I probably care to admit. In 2021, that love for Josh was tested, but it ended happily ever after like a good romantic comedy.

Despite the rocky start, he still finished an underrated 10th for tackles in the AFL, 14th for inside ’50s, 20th for metres gained and averaged 26 possessions a game. The primary reason for the sluggish start was a role change. Rather than playing as the preferred inside/outside pure midfielder, he found himself playing as a high half-forward. Kelly spent so much time inside forward 50 that Champion Data allocated MID/FWD DPP status in AFLFantasy after round six.

The trigger for the initial role move seemed to be linked to the absence of Lachie Whitfield. The moment Lachie returned to the side, he moved to the pure midfield role. However, in the opening six weeks, he averaged 85 in AFLFantasy and 90 in SuperCoach and failed to register zero AFLFantasy tons and just one in SuperCoach.

From then on till the season ended in AFLFantasy, he averaged 111 and scored twelve tons with just three over 120, but they included a 152 and a 141. From these final 15 games, he just had one score below 96. Similarly, in SuperCoach, from round seven onwards, he scored 12 tons, six of them over 120 and averaged 113. It included a run of ten consecutive hundreds from rounds 7-17.

The last 15 games of the season across the formats are reflective of what he’s done ever since the 2017 season. Over the past five seasons in AFLFantasy, he’s averaged: 113, 108, 116, 106 (adjusted) & last year, the 104. The scoring line for averages is better in SuperCoach with 113, 113, 117, 114 & 107.

If you’ve played fantasy footy over the past five seasons, you’d be familiar with his scoring consistency. That should never really be a concern. Instead, it’d been his durability. But with him playing 21 games last year, can that ‘excuse’ be used anymore? Kelly did miss the match with the Giants coming off a five-day break and the club being ultra-conservative with him.

For the better part of 100 games, he’s proven he’s a 110+ premium consistently. He’s now shown his durability. So is 2022 the season his ownership rightly heading back to the high percentages he belongs?

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Twelve months ago, the concern around Josh Kelly was around his durability. But after a near faultless season in terms of games played, that can no longer be a viable argument against starting him. However, a different concern has emerged—the GWS Giants midfield mix. In reality, Kelly is the Rolls Royce of the Giants and should never be too far gone from the midfield. But in the past season, we’ve learnt a lot about Leron Cameron and his happiness to make drastic structure adjustments.

In 2021 Tim Taranto spent significant time in the back quarter of the season as a forward. Stephen Coniglio spent nearly complete games inside forward 50 often. Lachie Ash was trialled as a defensive midfielder. Harry Perryman was used in every possible crevice of the ground while Nick Haynes was experimented with on a wing. Oh, and don’t forget the aforementioned move of Josh himself to playing high half-forward. Is Kelly positionally safe? The later three quarters of last year should give us the confidence to suggest ‘yes.’ But there is some cause for concern in reality. Is his midfield minutes linked to the health of Lachie Whitfield? If it is, that’s some cause for second thoughts.

Whenever a premium performer has some queries regarding role security, that can often be enough cause to disregard them as a starter in our fantasy football sides. But in reality, if the Giants are to go deep into finals footy again, they’ll need him to be centre stage and starring through the midfield. As strong as his support cast is, GWS cannot play finals, let alone win them, without him being a significant piece of the success.

How confident are you that he can deliver a season averaging 110 or, in reality, 115? Last season in AFLFantasy, we had ten midfielders average 110 or higher and fifteen in SuperCoach over 115. Kelly was none of these? Do you believe he’s a top 10 midfielder? With a stacked Giants midfield, can he average 110+? Can he do it if Stephen Coniglio is fit alongside a midfield role for Tim Taranto, Jacob Hopper, and the cast of thousands rolling through? If you’re not convinced, then he’s an upgrade target.

With GWS having the round twelve byes, he could be the perfect upgrade target during the multi bye rounds. Especially if you already own multiples of Jack Steele, Sam Walsh or Zach Merrett who share the same week off. Speaking of those three premium midfielders, where do you rank him against them? That alone might be the telltale sign of the correct approach for you.

Over the past few days in the 50 most relevant, we’ve discussed Callum Mills and Rory Laird. Both are coming off seasons with averages higher than Kelly, so why is he higher? Simple, Kelly’s delivered 110+ seasons multiple times over while they have done it just once. Yes, the past scores don’t count in 2022, but I have greater confidence that he could not only push scoring again past 110-115+ can but be a captaincy consideration with a greater frequency of 130+ scores.

I believe Josh Kelly is a clear potential 115-120 scoring option across the formats. And given we have potentially ten growth points on his starting price, he looms as a viable underpriced starting option. Additionally, if you look into his 2021 numbers, there isn’t the frequency of 125+ games, but in 2017-2020 they exist. So I’m strongly considering starting him across all formats of the game.

By starting him, I remove the risk of loss of games to injury. By starting him, I get the value of his starting price. By starting him, I get the maximization of him being unique. By starting, I optimize my enjoyment of owning him. So I’m calling it now, Kelly to average 115+ across the formats and be a top-five midfielder.

DRAFT DECISION

On your draft day, whoever selects Josh Kelly could get some serious early draft value. As discussed throughout this article, his year in totality was closer to his regular 110+ seasonal averages. Someone will select him as an M2, possibly even M3, if they draft midfield positions heavy but get M1 value. I’d be shocked if someone picked him inside the first two rounds. I’d certainly be happy to pick him in the third round, and should he slide to the fourth, I wouldn’t be able to click the ‘draft’ button quick enough.

The biggest hesitation historically on getting Kelly was around his injury history. But after delivering near faultless season in 2021, will coaches be more confident to jump on? Josh Kelly is one of the most enjoyable players to own in drafts when fit and firing. Hopefully, if you draft him, he will deliver another great year.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

#47 Most Relevant | Rory Laird

Read Time:8 Minute, 22 Second

In 2021 Rory Laird was the best defender of the season. Entering into a new year he may have lost his defensive status but his scoring power shows no signs of disappearing. ‘The Desk’ could one of the best low ownership stars of 2022.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Rory Laird
Age: 28
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Midfield

2021 Highest Score:
142 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
178 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
142 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2021)
185 Vs Collingwood| SuperCoach (2020)

2021 Average:
111.6 (AFLFantasy)
116.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $632,600
AFLFantasy Price: $937,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $952,300

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Was the move of Rory Laird into the Adelaide midfield in 2020 just a one-off experiment? Hardly! Laird took the skills honed as a defender and translated them into a top-level midfielder. Per game, he ranked second in the league for handbells, third for contested possessions, fourth for disposals, sixth for effective disposals, and seventh for stoppage clearances. This statistical dominance translated into him becoming one of the best performers last year. And despite being available as a midfielder, his numbers hold up against many big boys in fantasy footy.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam last year, scored 18 tons from 22 games played, including 11 consecutive to end the year. Of these tons, 6 were above 120, and two monsters of 140+. That’s scoring a ton in 81% of games last year. That more 100’s than Ollie Wines, Zach Merrett, Sam Walsh and Jarryd Lyons were also top 10 scoring midfielders the previous year. To go with his consistency of tons is his high scoring basement. Just once all year did his scoring fall beneath 90. That’s something, not even last years top performing player Jack Steele can boast about. He ranked seventh for both total averages and points scored in the competition for these formats.

His scoring was similarly dominant in SuperCoach with 18 tons, 11 consecutive to wind up the year and 10 of those tons 120 or higher, including a 144, 149 and a seasonal high 179. Like in AFLFantasy, he had just one score below 90 all season. He ranked 10th overall for total points and averages ranked 11th and outperformed Brownlow Medalist Ollie Wines and Norm Smith Medalist Christian Petracca. Of course, some of us are more ‘visual’ learners than others. So for those more like me, here’s a visual representation of his strong scoring 2021 across formats.

If you’ve played any formats of fantasy footy beyond twelve months, you’d know the scoring pedigree of Laird. What matters isn’t his accomplishments across half-back. What he’s done since being a midfielder does. In 2020, after his move into the Crows midfield in round nine, he averaged 118 in SuperCoach and 89 in AFLFantasy. If you want to play the ‘adjusted’ averages game due to the shorter quarters, then, in reality, it’s a 112.

When selecting a premium, three of the most critical factors are scoring consistency, scoring ceiling, and games available. Of course, the scoring and consistency are on show for all now. But Laird’s availability is equally as impressive. In the past five seasons, he’s missed just two games of AFL. And since 2019, he’s played every game possible.

Over the past thirty games, between 2020-2021, he’s shown as a 110+ performer in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and a 115+ in SuperCoach. The evidence is irrefutable; Laird is a top tier scoring option. Given his low ownership due to a loss of defensive status, he could be the perfect differential in your starting squad or upgrade plans.

Given that he’s only played the midfield role for 30 games, there’s a line of argument that suggests he could be getting better in the position. However, based on his 11 consecutive tons to round out the season, that thought process might have some grounds for consideration.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

One word can define an AFL player and his career. When you say ‘premierships’, you think of the Grand Final day heroics of players like Luke Hodge, Dustin Martin and more recently, Christian Petracca. All were difference makers in helping their team win a flag. However, the word that comes to mind when I think of Rory Laird is ‘consistent.’ His effort, workrate, ball winning, defensive pressure and fantasy scoring is just consistent. Undoubtedly, over the last 30 games of AFL is among the most consistently high performing midfielders in the AFL.

If you look over the past few years, whenever someone loses defender or forward status and become just a midfielder, they often get underrated and under owned. Currently, AFLFantasy is the only format open to the public, and there he’s owned by just 3% of coaches. Madness right? Possibly, but for me, I have a few question marks around Laird.

The primary concern is not so much around Rory but more around the impending return of Matt Crouch. What impact (if any) will he have on Laird’s scoring ceiling and capacity? Granted, Crouch is yet to return to full training, but when fit, he’s best 22 and knows how to find plenty of footy. Between 2016-2019 Crouch averaged over 30 possessions per game and went at 26 in the shorter quarters of 2020. That’s plenty of ball winning that could skim the ceiling off Laird’s top end numbers.

We did get nine games in 2020 where they played together in these midfield roles. It was the final nine games of the season. Laird averaged 118 in SuperCoach and 89 in AFLFantasy. If you want to play the ‘adjusted’ averages game due to the shorter quarters, then, in reality, it’s a 112. Crouch also won plenty of the ball in this time. While that’s positive vibes, the Crows midfield and game style has adjusted drastically since then. Harry Schoenberg has become a centre bounce regular, Luke Pedlar and Sam Berry has been added to the midfield stocks via the draft, and they’ve traded in a gun recruit, Jordan Dawson.

In short, the team has changed and for the better. I don’t think Crouch’s return can be safely assumed to have little or no impact on Laird’s game. To start the year with Rory is going to cost plenty of coins. He’s among the top group of expensive midfielders in the games. When you are forking out this much cash of your salary cap on a player, you cannot do it when they still pose significant question marks. The return of Matt Crouch is substantial. You must wait and see the impact before jumping on.

There are parallels between him and Callum Mills, who we wrote about here a few days ago? But is Laird a better pick than Mills? In my eyes, yes, and for a straightforward reason. Laird’s got a significant frequency of translating 100’s to 120+ scores. Both are good reliable, and consistent performers, but the historical ceiling means you must place Rory over Callum in all ranks.

Can Laird get better? Arguably his basement can’t get any stronger. With just one game beneath 90, all season is insane. So if you believe he’s going to score better, he must add to his disposal count. But averaging 32 touches a game, six tackles and nearly four marks, I’m not sure I see colossal growth avenues. I think he’s at top dollar, and unless he can outperform his points per game by 10+ over the first six weeks, he will drop in value. Combining this and the chance to ‘watch and see’ the possible Crouch impact makes him the perfect upgrade option.

The only justifiable reason to start him is that you believe he can get better, and if he is to improve, you’re picking him as one of your weekly captaincy candidates. If you don’t think he can be a VC/C for you over the first six weeks, then he’s not a starter for you. That’s why for me, Laird is an upgrade target. He’ll be a reliable and consistent performer, but you remove all potential elements of risk by waiting on him. I’ll be certainly looking to him as a possible early premium upgrade.

DRAFT DECISION

When a player losses defender or forward status and become just midfielders, they can slide later in drafts than where they should. In reality, based on Rory Laird’s ceiling, consistency and durability, he is a legitimate M1/M2 and a candidate for a pick as early as the second round. However, some might be a little turned off and try to load up on either another positional line or a legacy name midfielder.

His range will be anywhere from the middle of the second round right through to the mid fourth on draft day. I’d be shocked to see him still on the draft board entering into the fifth. He’s too good to pass up on even with some uncertainties around the flagged Matt Crouch impact. Regardless I still see him as a top 10-15 midfielder for 2022.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %

#48 Most Relevant | Wayne Milera

Read Time:7 Minute, 3 Second

Injuries have robbed football fans of seeing Wayne Milera at full flight. So is 2022 the year it all turns around? Fantasy football players are hoping so.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Wayne Milera
Age: 24
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Defender

2021 Highest Score:
DNP

Career Highest Score:
116 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2018)
112 Vs Melbourne | SuperCoach (2018)

2021 Average:
DNP

SuperCoach Price: $271,100
AFLFantasy Price: $378,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $263,500

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

One of the worst things in football is seeing highly talented players continue their careers interrupted by injuries. And for Wayne Milera, Crows fans and us fantasy footy coaches. Whenever we don’t see players like him play for the better part of two seasons, we can forget just how good a footballer he is. At his peak, he’s a dashing player who’s able to break the game open with his line breaking speed, elite foot skills and uncanny ability to get out of the most deadly traffic.

He only played two games in 2020 before a foot injury ended his season. But he showed fantasy footy coaches what he could deliver. In round one against the Swans, he scored 96 in SuperCoach and 70 AFLFantasy (87 Adjusted). It’s limited data, but it was tracking with his scoring of the previous season. At the start of 2019, Milera came out of the blocks flying. He scored off the half-back of 87, 95, 96 & 86 in AFLFantasy, while in SuperCoach, he scored 82, 105, 109 & 86. Not a bad first four rounds. However, a dislocated shoulder sidelined him for the next five weeks.

Upon his return, he delivered a further six scores above 80, including a ton in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and three scores 96+ including a 114 in SuperCoach. Amazing, certainly not. But we aren’t paying for him to be a top 6-10 defender this year. His job is to be a stepping stone and is closer to the cash cow price range.

Further proof that Milera has been giving us these scoring glimpses for years is to look at his 2018 stats. Over the final eleven rounds of the year, he dipped his scoring beneath 70 just once across the formats. While in SuperCoach, he posted three tons, three additional scores over 90 and averaged 89 from rounds 12-23. In the same period, AFLFantasy/DreamTeam Wayne posted 2 tons and averaged 82.

If you combined his last nine games of 2018 and the first four of 2019, he averaged 87 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 93 in SuperCoach. At his price point, if Wayne Milera can return an average in the ’80s up until his bye round across the formats, he’ll have more than done his job. On the chance he sneaks that average higher, he might reach the level required to be a year end keeper.

When you consider players in this price range, you often look at unproven performers hoping to deliver. However, with Milera, the question marks surrounding him, especially at this price point, have nothing to do with his scoring power. Instead, he’s shown that he can get it done over the past few seasons when he’s on the park.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Success in the salary cap formats of the game isn’t nailing your starting squad, don’t get me wrong, having a solid base helps. But, ultimately, it’s a trading game that makes you successful or not. It is the timing of moving players in & out of your side that eventually will get you to the top of the mountain. What players like Wayne Milera provide proven value as a starting squad option.

At his price point, he doesn’t need to be a keeper. He could be, but you need to plan for him not to be. For those not selecting him, it’s not choosing to pass on selecting him because of that. Instead, the primary concern over Wayne Milera is a continuing poor Injury history. Since becoming part of the Crows’ best 22’ in 2018, he hasn’t had a season that hasn’t been interrupted by injury. That’s certainly a worry for those selecting him. Especially given he hasn’t yet been in full training.

However, the flip side is the potential reward he could deliver. Ultimately there is a risk with selecting any player with an injury history. However, the question you must answer is ‘will the reward outweigh the risk? In the preseason, Milera is still focused on rebuilding strength in his left knee but has received the green light to ramp up training after the Christmas break. However, the club has cleared him to resume full training in January finally.

As a stepping stone selection, Milera has the perfect bye round. Along with the rest of his Crows, he has the middle of the multi-bye rounds. Meaning that should the stars align and he gets a good run of injury, he could be perfect t to move out at the commencement of round 13. From there, you could target the defensive premiums coming off the bye like Jayden Short or Jordan Ridley.

Over the previous few seasons, the Crows have unearthed a wealth of talent with the development of Lachie Sholl, the resurrection of Paul Seedsman, and Jordan Dawson’s trade. A healthy Milera will only add to the outside run and class of the Crows. I expect him to play off the flanks and push high up to the wings.

The risk surrounding Milera is clear. He’s played one full AFL game in the past two seasons and, to this point, has been managed through the preseason. For coaches to have confidence in selecting him, he needs to have a flawless preseason from here. One more setback, and I’ll be looking elsewhere. I pivot away from them whenever injury-riddled players have even a minor issue in the second half of preseason.

Ultimately, if you are picking Wayne, you need a backup plan. As we’ve discussed, he’s a sublime value at his price point, and to get anyone worth picking at the same range is near impossible. So, if recent injury history continues (and let’s all hope it doesn’t), you’ll need to have plan b. Will you be dropping him down to another cash cow in the backline? Are you restricting the squad? Whatever it is, know what to do. Without a plan, you’re setting yourself up for failure.

All the preseason signs are promising. Milera is ticking off every box this preseason, and should he manage to continue to build and get through the preseason unscathed; then I’ll be starting him everywhere.

DRAFT DECISION

Since Wayne Milera has missed the better part of two seasons, coaches will be hesitant to select him on draft day. The best weapon in your fantasy football drafting arsenal is availability, and for Wayne, he currently doesn’t instil coaches with confidence he’s got it. But eventually, on draft day, the reward of scoring potential and selecting him trumps the risk of injury.

A selection as one of the final two defenders on the field could become a dream outcome. While at that point of the draft, you are just picking flyers who more often than not end up thrown back into the player pool. For me, If I’m in the middle to late teen rounds of a draft and he’s there, I’ll be jumping on picking him.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
Will you be starting with him?
Have your say at our Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.

WANT EARLY ACCESS?

Want access 24 hours early to the 50 Most Relevant podcasts? Join our Patreon and get ahead of the Crowd

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au

Happy

0 %

Sad

0 %

Excited

0 %

Sleepy

0 %

Angry

0 %

Surprise

0 %