50 Most Relevant Archives - Page 21 of 32

#39 Most Relevant | Wayne Milera

Read Time:6 Minute, 16 Second

Injuries have robbed football fans from seeing Wayne Milera at full flight. Is 2021 his breakout season? I think it is.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Wayne Milera
Age: 23
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Defender

2020 Highest Score:
63 Vs Sydney (AFLFantasy)
96 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
116 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2018)
112 Vs Melbourne | SuperCoach (2018)

2020 Average:
51.1 (AFLFantasy) | 63.8 (Adjusted Average)
83 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $312,200
AFLFantasy Price: $446,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $380,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Wayne Milera is a tease! Over the past few seasons, he has shown multiple games where he looks like he’s the second coming of club hero Andrew McLeod. The way he moves through traffic and users the ball, it’s had supporters salivating at his potential.

Even in limited games last year he showed fantasy footy coaches what he could deliver. In round one against the Swans, he scored 96 in SuperCoach and 70 AFLFantasy (87 Adjusted). This is one of only two games he played across the season. And while his injury concerns are starting to pile up, what it does mean is he’s been handed a tasty discount on his starting price.

In 2019, Milera came out of the blocks flying with scores off the half back of 87, 95, 96 & 86 in AFLFantasy while in SuperCoach he scored 82, 105, 109 & 86. Not a bad first four rounds. However, a dislocated shoulder sidelined him for the next five weeks.

Upon his return he delivered a further six scores above 80 including a ton in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and three scores 96+ including a 114 in SuperCoach. Amazing, certainly not. But we aren’t paying for him to be a top 6-10 defender this year. His job is to be a stepping stone. Should anything above that eventuate that’s all well and good but he doesn’t need to be a premium.

Further proof that Milera has been giving us these scoring glimpses for years is to look at his 2018 stats. Over the final eleven rounds of the year, he dipped his scoring beneath 70 just once across the formats.

In SuperCoach he posted three tons, three additional scores over 90 and averaged 89 from round 12-23. In the same period of time in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam Wayne posted 2 tons and averaged 82.

In total if you combined his last 9 games of 2018 and first four of 2019 he averaged 87 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 93 in SuperCoach.

At his price point, if Wayne Milera can return an average in the ’80s up until his bye round across the formats, he’ll have more than done his job. On the chance he sneaks that average higher he might reach the level required to be a year end keeper.

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MY TAKE

Last year was Wayne Milera’s worst ever season in terms of games played and it was due to injury. Milera complained of some foot soreness. Ultimate the scans revealed a stress fracture which put an end to his hopes of further games in 2020.

Just prior to the Christmas break Wayne was slated to get involved in full training in the middle of January, and according to the club is on track.

The Adelaide Crows are in a complete rebuild. While I don’t think they’ll pick up back to back wooden spoons they still have some gaps on the list to fill before they can be finals bound again. One of the most underrated players on the club’s list that fills a critical void is Wayne Milera. For years, the club has been exposed in two key areas.

Firstly, outside speed. Since the Crows recent tumble down the AFL ladder, they’ve lacked players on the outside that can continuously impact and open up the game. Wayne is one of a few young Crows with the wheels to break out of traffic and open up the game.

Lastly, his willingness to take the game on. Whether it be when it tight traffic, or needing to pinpoint a difficult pass, Milera thrives on pressure. A quick GIF search and you’ll find numerous passages of play like this one where Milera takes on the opposition, and through his skill and composure, he gets his side out of trouble.

via GIPHY

The Crows can choose to use him across half back alongside Will Hamill, Rory Laird and Andy McPherson. Or they can play him higher up the ground on the wings alongside Brodie Smith, Lachie Sholl or Jackson Hately. In either role, Wayne will add to the rebuilding Crows and should maintain some solid scoring. For what it’s worth, I believe he’ll play more half back than wing.

As a stepping stone selection, Milera has the perfect bye round. He, along with the rest of his Crows, has the final of the multi-bye rounds. This will enable coaches at round 14 to look at who the best available option is coming off the round 12 & 13 teams.

Players like Caleb Daniel, Sam Docherty, Jayden Short, Jordan Ridley, Alex Witherden, Tom Stewart and Nick Haynes are just some of the players in contention.

At his price point, he doesn’t need to be a keeper. He could be, but you need to plan for him not to be. For those not selecting him, it’s not choosing to pass on selecting him because of that. Rather, the major concern over Wayne Milera is a continuing poor Injury history.

Since becoming part of the Crows ‘best 22’ in 2018, he hasn’t had a season that hasn’t been interrupted by injury. That’s certainly a worry for those selecting him. Especially given he hasn’t yet been in full training.

However, the flip side is the potential reward he could deliver. Ultimately there is a risk with selecting any player with an injury history. However, the question you must answer is ‘will the reward outweigh the risk?

If you play AFLFantasy, I believe he’s a relatively easy and safe pick. Currently, he’s in 12% of teams, but I expect that to be well over 20% by the start of the year. In SuperCoach & DreamTeam if your structure allows you a stepping stone defender, he needs to be right in the mix for selection.

DRAFT DECISION

SuperCoach drafters will be hoping he can push that average closer to 90 rather than 80. If he can do that he’ll return value of a D3, but likely be selected as someone D4. In AFLFantasy scoring, it’s a similar position. Drafting him on the day at D3 feels a spot too high, but he has the potential to be your third best defender by seasons end maybe even a low end D2.

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#40 Most Relevant | Adam Treloar

Read Time:5 Minute, 46 Second

Adam Treloar might not have been the most prominent names to move club during the trade period, but it was undoubtedly the most talked about. With a fresh point to prove, does this former Magpie champion need to be picked in your fantasy footy side?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Adam Treloar
Age: 27
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield

2020 Highest Score:
119 Vs Geelong (AFLFantasy)
158 Vs Geelong (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
159 Vs Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2014)
177 Vs Gold Coast| SuperCoach (2019)

2020 Average:
87.8 (AFLFantasy) | 109.75 (Adjusted Average)
109.4 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $687,600
AFLFantasy Price: $812,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $810,300

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2020 didn’t go the way I’d planned it was gonna go, and maybe for you that’s the same. It’s certainly true for Adam Treloar. From injuries, media speculation about his parters netball career and ultimately a late trade to the Bulldogs. I’m certain none of these would’ve been on his new years resolution list.

Despite battling playing only eight games and battling some injuries last season, 2020 from a statistical perspective was just as strong as ever. On ‘per game’ averages he ranked 1st for disposals, 2nd for contested possessions and stoppages, 4th for handball, 7th for clearances, 13th for effective disposals and 15th for inside ’50s

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam point of view, he posted two tons, two additional scores over 86 and had a season low score of 68. On first glance, these look poor but remember the shorter quarters come into effect. His year end average of 87.8 has him ranked as the 12th best midfielder by averages.

SuperCoach players will remember his season high 158 which was one of 5 tons across the season, and during the year he didn’t drop his scoring below 80. While only 8 games of data, it’s a conversion rate like this that reminds coaches just how good he has been over several years.

In 2019 from his 22 AFL games in AFLFantasy, he ended up averaging 113. That placed him third for overall points, ranked second for all midfielders and fourth for averages. Breaking down the numbers he posted 18 scores of 100 or more, scored over 120 in 10 games and only dropped below 90 in two.

SuperCoach he ended the 2019 season ranked fifth for total points of all midfielders, ninth by averages and had an average of 113. That year posted 17 tons across the season, with seven over 120 and dipped his scoring below 83 in just one game.

Over a long period of time Adam has just found a way to average well into the triple digits. Ever since his breakout third season he’s averaged 100+ across all formats of the game.

*2020 is an adjusted average based on AFLFantasy pricing/scoring.

As impressive as these scores are at the moment, coaches need to remember that he’s no longer apart of the Collingwood side where the majority of these seasons happened.

That being said, put yourself in Adam’s shoes last year where your name is being constantly mentioned throughout October in the trade period. And these apparent ‘insiders’ are dishing the dirt on you. Stuff like this will be an incredible motivator for him. Adz is already one of the premiere fantasy scorers in the game, imagine what he could deliver with a ‘point to prove.’ Especially round one against his former side.

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MY TAKE

There are two big question marks when it comes to selecting Adam Treloar. The first is around the Bulldogs midfield mix, while the other is about a concerning trend of soft tissue injuries.

Let’s address the first, the Bulldogs midfield mix. Ever since his trade to the West, fantasy coaches have been worried about the cascading impact on what was an already crowded midfield rotation.

Focussing on Adam (which this article is about) I’m not concerned about him being given a new potential role. I don’t see a world where he’s given a role off half back, our pushing up the ground from a forward flank. Adz is an out and out midfielder. He might play more outside at times, others on the inside. But I see no world where he plays outside of the midfield beyond a ‘rest.’

Rather I think it’s more like Bailey Smith, Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore or even a Lachie Hunter have a rotation or two further outside of the middle.

That said, given the calibre of high volume possession winners in the side like Jack Macrae and quality users like Marcus Bontempelli it’s the smarter play to target him as an upgrade and give yourself a few rounds to see how this midfield unit gels together.

Second is the injury concerns. Normally, for a player of Adam’s growing injury history, I’d suggest that ‘if you don’t start with him (insert player with injury history name) you cannot upgrade to them during the season’. The reason being is with every game played the ‘risk’ of that potential injury occurring only increases with every game played. However, I believe with Adam; it’s different on one caveat.

That is that if the reason you passed on him had nothing to do with his injury resume at all. But rather, you have chosen to initial pass based on a desire to see how (if any) this new club will impact his scoring.

DRAFT DECISION

History would suggest that across the formats, Adam Treloar is a safe M1. In AFLFantasy he’d normally be a late first round selection, while in SuperCoach it’s arguably a round later.

However, the question marks around the Bulldogs midfield mix will have drafters scared off not just him, but all Bulldogs midfielders. As a result, I think coaches will be able to snag Adam at the value of an M2 (rounds 3-5) but with the prospective rewards of him being your top scoring midfielder.

As you can tell, I’m more optimistic than maybe others in the community about his ‘scoring dip’, but for me, I believe it will be an inconsequential drop if one at all.

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#41 Most Relevant | Jack Crisp

Read Time:5 Minute, 20 Second

Since arriving at Collingwood via Brisbane, Jack Crisp has been a picture of durability and consistency. In 2021 can he go up yet another scoring gear?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jack Crisp
Age: 27
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: Defender

2020 Highest Score:
121 Vs Brisbane (AFLFantasy)
138 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
147 Vs Geelong | AFLFantasy (2018)
153 Vs Richmond | SuperCoach (2018)

2020 Average:
76.1 (AFLFantasy) | 95.1 (Adjusted Average)
99.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $533,200
AFLFantasy Price: $726,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $702,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Jack Crisp has become a crucial member of the Pies backline. His ability to apply defensive pressure on the ground and beat his man one-on-one has made him the underrated cog of the Pies backline. Standing at 190cm, he can easily intercept in the air and then distribute the ball with his booming left foot

At times during the season, owners were both in love and loathing his performances. Yet, as he has for many seasons prior he found a way to deliver another top tier scoring season.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he posted two tons, plus had four additional scores over 80. Remember that in shortened quarters last season that 80 was the new 100. By the end of the year, he ranked third among defenders for total points and sixth for averages.

It was a career high season from Crisp in SuperCoach. He posted 8 tons, 3 of them were above 120 and had an additional 4 scores over 90. On top of his scoring heights, he barely burnt coaches with a poor score. Just one all season did his scoring drop under 60. By the end of the year in that format, he ranked 7th among all defenders for total points and 11th for averages.

2020 isn’t an outlier he’s been scoring for years! Back in 2019 for AFLFantasy, he had a career-best season averaging 97.7. From round 5-20 he had only one score below 84. Across the year Jack posted twelve scores over 100, four of these were 120+ including a seasonal best 142 against eventual premiers Richmond. It’s an impressive scoring ceiling, but having just three scores below 75 reveals his scoring consistency.

2019 was a down scoring season for Crisp in SuperCoach, but he still managed to average 88.9 and be ranked 10th for defenders for total points scored. Four times he reached triple digits, all of which were 109 or above. His 2018 numbers for SuperCoach are much stronger averaging just shy of 96 for the year. Ten times he scored 100 or more, with seven of these being above 110.

Since being a magpie his seasonal averages have been fantastic. In SuperCoach he’s delivered 89, 85, 82, 95, 88 & 99. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam it’s 91, 84, 88 87, 97 & 76 (95 adjusted average.)

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MY TAKE

Jack Crisp has the scoring to match it with the best, but what sets him apart is his durability. Since moving to Collingwood, he’s played every game of the past six years. It’s incredibly rare to have this level of availability.

Go back and look at those averages, he’s played every game and has the clear top availability of any premium defender. While this could change entering this year, it should give potential owners high confidence that when you pick him as a premium, you’re getting 22 games from him.

What ultimately sets him apart from other premiums is that he has zero durability concern in his history. Should you find yourself needing to find a further $40,000 in your salary cap then skimming back to him via a Rory Laird or even a Lachie Whitfield isn’t the worse idea.

SuperCoach players, if you are picking him in your starting squad, then you’re doing at his peak career price after delivering a career high average in 2020. That said if you believe he’s likely to start the year the way he finished last year (averaging 117 in the final five) then you can argue he’s underpriced.

If you’re picking him as a starter in any format, then you need to believe he’s more closely going to deliver the scoring of his final month. And not so much that of the majority of the season. Which isn’t bad at all, but it’s quite a distance from the rest of his year.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam there’s a scoring differential of 18.1 (22.6 adjusted) between what he did over the final five rounds in contrast to his total season average. While for SuperCoach, it’s also 18 points per game gap.

His bye round could make it challenging for you (round 14) if you don’t structure your squad right. The other premium defenders from that bunch of squads include Jake Lloyd, Rory Laird and Luke Ryan. The absolute most you could carry into this MBR of premiums would be three.

As good as a player as he is, I can’t see myself starting with him. But I do think he’ll be a top 10 defender by seasons end across all formats. Therefore, he’s an upgrade target for me.

DRAFT DECISION

Crispy will be among the first defenders off the board once Jake Lloyd, Rory Laird and Lachie Whitfield are taken. These three players I have ranked ahead of him. Jack Crisp is a D1 and will likely be considered for selection alongside Tom Stewart, Caleb Daniel and Luke Ryan’s. The earliest I’d be happy to select him is ‘on the turn’ early in the third round.

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#42 Most Relevant | Connor Rozee

Read Time:5 Minute, 15 Second

Everyone loves a breakout candidate, and one of the most anticipated is that of Connor Rozee. Will 2021 be his year?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Connor Rozee
Age: 20
Club: Port Adelaide
Position: Forward

2020 Highest Score:
85 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
145 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
121 Vs Brisbane | AFLFantasy (2019)
145 Vs Adelaide | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
54.2 (AFLFantasy) | 67.75 (Adjusted Average)
68.7 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $377,200
AFLFantasy Price: $518,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $500,600

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Maybe it’s dangerous to quote Kane Cornes in an article, but he’s adamant that Port Adelaide ‘won the 2018 draft’ when they selected Connor Rozee with pick five.

I believe he’s among the top three players at Port Adelaide already. That’s not a slide at Port’s list, rather an indicator at how quickly this 20-year-old is starting to be a dominant force in the AFL. Rozee is quick, athletic, a terrific mark, clean with the ball and isn’t afraid to apply defensive pressure too.

With only limited midfield opportunities, Connor has shown the ability to some big fantasy footy numbers. Rozee played almost exclusively forward in his debut season, and in SuperCoach he averaged 78, posted five tons and an additional four scores above 80. While for AFLFantasy it was two tons, and four more scores above 80.

Entering into 2020 the preseason hype for Connor Rozee, many believed he could be among the rare few players who breakout in their second season. And those who started with him were instantly rewarded. He scored a 105 & 145 in SuperCoach and a 85 & 76 (adjusted 106 & 95).

From then until the final few games of the season Rozee struggled to score. That was largely due to a nagging heel injury that impacted him across the middle portion of the season. He even missed three matches because of it.

However, in round 16 & 17 we saw more of his potential with a 74 & 78 in AFLFantasy and 109 & 95 in SuperCoach, Throw in his preliminary final performance of 81 in AFLFantasy and 96 SuperCoach.

Injuries are never great, but it’s clear from his performances in 2020 that he’s a fantasy performer when he’s fit. Then benefit of these injury impacted games for potential owners in 2021 is that he has some natural value built into his pricing.

It’s evident to all that Connor is moments away from not just dominating the fantasy footy world, but the AFL in general. The question is when will it happen not if.

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MY TAKE

Ultimately, Port Adelaide have a franchise player in Rozee and should be looking to build the list around him. The question will be are the building with him in mind as a long-term midfielder? Or a midfield/forward? The role he plays long term will ultimately determine his scoring potential both this season and future years.

Securing Orazio Fantasia from Essendon could be a huge benefit not just for what he can do, but the way he releases others. If Fantasia can stay on the park, given his XFactor ability inside forward 50 the necessity for Rozee to play forward minimises.

Additionally, as Robbie Gray is in the twilight of his career he should spend even greater time forward. These two moves will allow Connor Rozee more midfield rotations and an increased scoring projection.

Truth be told the midfield increase could just as easily go to Zac Butters, but there is also a world where I can see both he and Connor take key midfield roles in 2021 and beyond. It’s certainly not a ‘one or the other’ approach.

The heel injury that impacted his 2020 season seems to not to be impacting him this preseason. Recently on the club’s website, he’s ‘good to go‘ and ready to play more time further up the field.

Over the past few articles, we’ve looked at several midprice and stepping stone forwards. The same ‘dilemma’ for them is identical for Rozee. Can he reach near enough to our peak forwards to make his selection worthwhile? Ultimately, your confidence level at answering that question will determine whether or not he’s a good selection in your starting squad.

There are enough question marks on Connor Rozee to put a line through in starting squads. However, In SuperCoach I’m bullish on Connor being a breakout performer, and I believe he’s good enough to push near the top 10 forwards by seasons end.

AFLFantasy he could be a nice stepping stone option over the first few weeks if you think he can fire. For DreamTeam I don’t think he’ll be a season long keeper, so for that reason, it’s a pass.

DRAFT DECISION

By the end of the 2021 AFL season, Connor Rozee will finish ranked clearly inside the top 20 forwards across all formats. However, to snag him on draft day, you likely won’t have to shell out an F2 selection.

If there was a format you’d ‘reach’ early to own him, it would be SuperCoach and is certainly worth a pick before the end of the 10th round. However, in AFLFantasy scoring leagues that is too high in my books.

SuperCoach scoring he’ll be taken as an F3 by someone at the latest. Even though he’s ranked currently as the 52nd best forward, someone will happily pay F3 positioning for him. While in AFLFantasy scoring it’s more likely an F4-F5 pick at the latest.

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#43 Most Relevant | Jordan Ridley

Read Time:5 Minute, 3 Second

Jordan Ridley was one of the best breakout performers in 2020 across all formats. Heading into a new season, the question fantasy coaches wonder is he can he do it again?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jordan Ridley
Age: 22
Club: Essendon Bombers
Position: Defender

2020 Highest Score:
108 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
136 Vs West Coast (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
108 Vs West Coast | AFLFantasy (2020)
136 Vs West Coast| SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
71.5 (AFLFantasy) | 89.37 (Adjusted Average)
101.9 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $547,700
AFLFantasy Price: $683,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $661,000

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Twelve months ago Jordan Ridley wasn’t locked into the Essendon Football clubs best 22. But by the end of the season, he’s the clubs best & fairest winner.

Last season he averaged 18 disposals 6 marks, 4 rebound 50’s and went at an elite 87 disposal efficiency. He ranked 2nd for effective disposals per game across the league, 6th for total marks per game and ranked 16th for total rebound ’50s.

His SuperCoach season saw a total increased of 35 points per game from his 2019 average. During the 2020 season, he averaged 101, had ten scores over 100, four over 120 and dipped below 70 in just one game. He ended the season ranked fifth for total points and seventh by the average for all defenders.

For DreamTeam/AFLFantasy he averaged 72 (adjusted 89) it included just the one ton and had nine scores 70+, In the shortened quarter and no weighting that’s a solid return. In adjusted scoring terms, those ’70s are high 80’s-90’s. He ended the season ranked thirteenth by averages and seventh for total points in comparisons to his fellow defenders.

Ridley was a picture of consistency for the majority of the season. However, he still has some room for growth, and ‘full length’ games might assist in that. In 5 games last season he took under 5 marks per game, and in only two matches, he took more than 10. For a player of his aerial supremacy, the Bombers will be hoping for an increase to 7-8 marks a game on average.

Furthermore, Jordan had just 4 games with 20+ possessions. While it’s rare for a ‘tall’ back to have the ball that much, he’s now efficient ball user in the Essendon defensive unit with Adam Saad and Connor McKenna no longer at the club.

It’s rare for big men to take the kick in duties, but as Aiden Corr showed at GWS, it’s not impossible. If that happens, Ridley could genuinely push the top tier backs of each format.

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MY TAKE

You can rarely see the potential for scoring improvement in a player after delivering premium numbers like his 2020 season. However, with Jordan Ridley, it’s a fairly easy ‘sell’.

As you might recall, towards the back end of last season Ridley started to be a questionable selection weekly. Late in the loss against GWS in round 10 he took a big late hit from Tim Taranto that injured his shoulder. From then on he became a ‘wait and see’ selection in most matches.

It’s no surprise that his lowest scores in the season came beyond this injury with four of his lowest scores coming in these final seven weeks for SuperCoach. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam it was just one score above 70 in the final five.

Jordan Ridley’s scoring success is linked to health and games of Michael Hurley. With Hurley holding down a key defensive pillar, it allows Jordan to play the intercepting role and not have to think 100% defensively.

Opposition teams may force him to be more accountable and use his direct opponent to create a damaging field position. While I believe this is the case, I think the Dons can still force a way to free him up.

A combination of key talls in Hurley, Cale Hooker, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher plus new draftees Nikolas Cox and Zach Reid can all be used to be more ‘accountable.’ Over the years the Eagles have done this well for Jeremy McGovern and Essendon will be hoping to replicate this.

Jordan Ridley has gone from a fringe player to arguably the clubs most important player for the long term in the space of one AFL season. At 22 years old, he’s still got plenty of improvement left in him

Fantasy footy coaches might choose to overlook him in starting squads, with many choosing the ‘The L’s in defense of Lloyd, Laird and Lachie (Whitfield). Sprinkle in some value defenders and all of a sudden it’s hard to squeeze a Ridley in.

If you opt to not start with him, I think he needs to be firmly in your upgrade plans. With a bye round at round 13, he provides a strong upgrade target, potentially directly from an underpriced Wayne Milera who takes a rest in round 14.

In SuperCoach and AFLFantasy he’s battling it out at D3 for me, in DreamTeam he’s right in the mix for an in season upgrade.

DRAFT DECISION

Each format requires a different draft ranking. In SuperCoach he’s a clear D1 and is currently ranked 7th based on last seasons averages. I expect that ranking range to hold in 2021.

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#44 Most Relevant | Jye Caldwell

Read Time:5 Minute, 23 Second

The talented former first round pick Jye Caldwell has made a move desperate for midfield opportunities. Thankfully for him and fantasy footy coaches he’s come to the right club.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jye Caldwell
Age: 20
Club: Essendon Bombers
Position: MID/FWD

2020 Highest Score:
75 Vs Western Bulldogs (AFLFantasy)
84 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
75 Vs Western Bulldogs | AFLFantasy (2020
84 Vs Adelaide | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
54.2 (AFLFantasy) | 67.75 (Adjusted Average)
64.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $348,600
AFLFantasy Price: $502,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $500,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Ever since Jobe Watson’s retirement, the Essendon Football Club has had a large vacancy inside their midfield unit. Ask any Bombers fan, and they’ll tell you they lack an inside bull, someone capable of being that first touch and inside ball winning midfielder.

It’s why the club identified but ultimately failed in securing Josh Dunkley. The club is utterly aware of the need to fill this role. It’s what has fantasy coaches frothing at the prospect of what this means for Jye Caldwell. With no Dunkley, the responsibilities on Caldwell should only further increase.

As a junior, he was renowned as a physical, big bodied midfielder with clean hands and a special burst of speed from the contest that reminded recruiters of GWS Giants skipper Stephen Coniglio.

After being selected at pick ten in the 2018 AFL draft, Jye played eleven games over two seasons at GWS. Breaking into that midfield unit has been near impossible for multiple years, and ultimately it was a primary reason both he and Jackson Hately moved on from the club.

In his AFL debut back in 2019, we saw glimpses of his scoring potential. Even without getting much midfield opportunities he won 13 possesions, took five marks, had six tackles and finished the game with 72 AFLFantasy and 73 SuperCoach points.

Last year he played nine games and delivered three scores over 70 in SuperCoach and two in AFLFantasy. Again these aren’t stunning numbers, but in shortened games and limited midfield minutes, it shows potential. Remembering that he’s now at a team who need his skill set in the midfield.

A few days ago we spoke about Tom Phillips, a career midfielder who due to being played out of position has picked up MID/FWD DPP. Similarly, Jye is also available as a MID/FWD and now presents as a genuine forward breakout candidate.

One of the reasons for he played so few games at the Giants was also due to the club being ultra conservative with his body. Through his final season in under 18’s he played three games for TAC Cup club Bendigo Pioneers, one for Vic Country and a handful for school side.

For years he’d struggled with a variety of soft tissue injuries. However, last year after the club’s cautious approach, he’d finally got the confidence to be able to play regularly.

The Bombers will now reap this approach’s rewards with him entering his third season in the AFL system he looks primed to deliver on his potential.

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MY TAKE

The planets all seem to be aligning for Jye Caldwell to breakout as a fantasy footballer this season. He’s forward eligible, coming into his third season in the AFL system and he’s moved to a club with a vacancy in his preferred inside midfield role.

However, this is all projected positive outcome. and as yet he’s not a proven commodity. Even in his junior days, he doesn’t have the resume of high SuperCoach & AFLFantasy scoring. Part of that can be put down to continual injuries but that further muddies the waters for those wanting to select him.

Caldwell clearly has the potential to push the level required of being a premium forward. But this season we are not short on either value options or top tier scoring forwards. Can you afford to take the risk this year on a player who as yet has only shown glimpses?

Last season some coaches were hesitant to pick Andrew Brayshaw for similar reasons. He was a former high draft pick who had spent a few seasons in the league developing his craft with little midfield minutes.

However, in 2020 as a MID/FWD option, everything went right, and he delivered big numbers. He finished the year ranked 4th for averages and points among all forwards in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 5th for points and averages in SuperCoach.

Just because it happened with Brayshaw, it’s no certainty for Caldwell. But it does give coaches hope that third year breakouts can deliver some high rewards.

For fantasy coaches looking for a breakout candidate in the forward line, then Jye Caldwell needs to be on your watchlist. The key to him scoring well will ultimately determine how many midfield minutes a game he can acquire.

We’ve been hoping largely in vain for years that Darcy Parish could pick up a full time midfield role. Hopefully, for both Darcy and Jye under a new coach, this eventuates.

DRAFT DECISION

The preseason hype level in salary cap formats will ultimately determine just how early he goes in certain leagues. In some leagues, you’ll have an overly zealous ( and likely Essendon supporter) in that league that will draft him at F2. For me, that’s too early. He’s much more like to be an F3 selection, but personally, I’d feel most comfortable drafting him at F4.

If you want him, you’ll need to reach to get your man, so an F3 draft position is likely what it will cost because I can’t see him lasting into the early teen rounds on draft day in too many leagues.

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#45 Most Relevant | Caleb Daniel

Read Time:5 Minute, 14 Second

Ever since his move to defence, Caleb Daniel has shown himself to be a consistent premium. In 2021, the trend looks set to continue, and it’s easy to see why.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Caleb Daniel
Age: 24
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Defender

2020 Highest Score:
128 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
154 Vs St Kilda (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
135 Vs Collingwood | AFLFantasy (2019)
154 Vs St Kilda | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
70.9 (AFLFantasy) | 88.6 (Adjusted Average)
101.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $545,500
AFLFantasy Price: $676,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $655,000

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Over the past few seasons, Caleb Daniel has developed a reputation in the league for being one of the most deadly users of the ball by foot. 2020 was no exception, averaging 20 disposals a game and at 82% efficiency. He capped off a brilliant season winning his first club best and fairest as swell as being recognised as the clubs most courageous player.

Last season he was ranked 19th for total rebound ’50s, 16th for kicks and 11th for total effective disposals across the league. It’s a stats line like this that makes him especially damaging in SuperCoach. In that format, he scored nine tons with three of them over 120.

While his ceiling might not be as high as other premium defenders, his scoring variations are considerably less. Last year he had just one score below 81 all season. At the conclusion of last year, he ended the year ranked 6th for total points and 8th by the average for all defenders.

AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 71 (adjusted 88) and had just one score of 128 (adjusted 160) across the season. Those scores might not feel as impressive as previous seasons, yet it’s still a solid return. He ended the season ranked 8th for total points and 15th for averages among all defenders.

In 2019 from his 17 matches, he averaged 99 in SuperCoach and had ten scores of 100 or more and dipped below 80 in just four games. AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 93, had six scores over 100 including two over 120. He had just four scores below 80 throughout the season.

One of the potential benefits coaches in DT/AF can be hopeful of is that with the return to full length quarters we also see a return to teams ‘icing’ quarters late with possession footy especially in the defensive half. Should that eventuate, Caleb Daniel will see that ceiling reached more frequently.

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MY TAKE

During the past two seasons, Caleb Daniel couldn’t have done much more to put himself into the preseason selection mix. He rarely misses games, having missed just five games in the previous three seasons and none in 2020.

With the arrival of Adam Treloar into the Bulldogs midfield mix, fantasy footy coaches are quick to write off all dogs players from their side. I understand some hesitancy in starting a midfielder, but Ads arrival both directly and indirectly will have zero impact on his scoring potential.

For the better part of two and a half seasons, Luke Beveridge has shown that he’s the ball’s preferred user by foot when coming out of defensive 50. Even should another midfielder be forced into taking additional time off the ball, nobody in that Bulldogs unit is as daring and precise by foot as Caleb. His role and subsequently scoring potential should be secure.

Despite not missing much much footy and consistently average high 80’s low 90’s in AFLFantasy and 99-101 in SuperCoach the past few seasons the selection love for Caleb Daniel is scarily low.

One of the reasons for this is that he is not a ceiling pick while he is a consistently good scoring option. By that I mean he’s not the player that will go on a tear of scores like Luke McDonald, Rory Laird or even a Lachie Whitfield who within a six game stretch can average 120-130 and deliver multiple 150+ scores.

Scoring variance (ceiling) and scoring predictably (consistency) will always continue to be a debate that rages across the community. The benefit for coaches is that both are needed to succeed, and sometimes the less glamorous pick can return you the best performance.

It might be early in January, but a look across the teams it appears we have some very common trends across teams. Many are starting a combination of two of Jake Lloyd, Rory Laird and Lachie Whitfield then sprinkling in a mix of value defenders like Zac Williams and Wayne Milera before kicking into the rookies. Yet, I’ve barely sighted a team with Caleb Daniel in it.

Selecting a player just because they have low ownership is always filled with danger. However, should his numbers continue to be as low across the formats as they are right now then he’s a genuine, safe point of difference in your side.

With his low scoring variance, he can enable you to build a solid scoring base across the season. This can then allow you the freedom to pursue the ceiling players when they are on a hot streak eg Luke McDonald of 2020 and not feel that your entire backline scoring is on a knife edge weekly.

DRAFT DECISION

Going off what he’s delivered over the previous two years across all formats of the game Caleb Daniel is a D1 for your draft side. Anywhere from a late third-fifth round selection is a strong space to select him.

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#46 Most Relevant | Joe Daniher

Read Time:8 Minute, 3 Second

Just twelve months after his failed attempt to depart Essendon, Joe Daniher has finally got the football restart he wanted at a new club. At Brisbane, can this son of a gun bounce back to his scoring best?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Joe Daniher
Age: 26
Club: Brisbane Lions
Position: Forward

2020 Highest Score:
85 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
103 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
127 Vs Western Bulldogs | AFLFantasy (2017)
134 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2016)

2020 Average:
48 (AFLFantasy) | (60 Adjusted Average)
48.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $233,300
AFLFantasy Price: $432,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $398,900

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It’s an understatement to suggest that the past three season for Joe Daniher haven’t exactly gone to plan. Since 2018 the key position forward has played fifteen of a possible sixty one games, with a season high of seven games in that period of time.

The reason for missing multiple games across each season is simple. Injury. Since playing 22 games back in 2017 has battled through osteitis pubis and along the way has had numerous setbacks. What long term and consistent injuries do to fantasy coaches is two things.

Firstly, it scares people off selecting him with the belief that history will repeat itself and that Joe will be moments away from his body, breaking down. Second, and more importantly, is it makes us forget the talent and ability of the player.

Despite just four games last season, it was in round 14 we got a reminder of his ability to impact a game and deliver. In that game against the Hawks, he took ten marks, five were inside 50 and three contested. He had eight score involvements, kick 3.3 and finished the game with a 103 in SuperCoach and 85 (adjusted 106) in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

These score echo that what he was able to score in 2017. That year he played every game, and in SuperCoach he averaged a career-best season of 86. That 86 included going 90+ on nine occasions, six times over 100, including a five-goal haul and a 124 point match against the Eagles.

While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam coaches he boosted his previous seasons average by 13 points up to a best of 85. That seasonal average included 11 scores north of 90, including 6 tons.

Like all key positions forwards he does require bags of goals to accumulate his scores, it’s important to note that from his 22 games he kicked 3 or more goals in 14 matches. Not a bad conversions rate. Thankfully, the Lions don’t just intend to plonk him inside forward 50.

Brisbane have declared publicly on multiple occasions they intend to use Joe as a relief ruckman to big Oscar Mcinerney. This is good news, as Joe’s previously rarely been used outside of forward 50 continuously. If this role eventuates, Daniher will now have a whole new realm of scoring available to him.

No longer will his scoring be entirely linked to his ability to kick bags. Now he’ll have centre bounces, stoppages and through the ground general play to boost his scoring.

Speaking of the Lions, the club has been able to do wonders for other players that have struggled to get consistently onto the park. A quick look back at former Cat and now Lion Lincoln McCarthy would remind us of his physical transformation since moving clubs. Between 2017-2018 he played just five games for Geelong, but he’s played 37 of a possible 39 home and away games since being a Lion.

The story is similar to Grant Birchall, in 2018-2019 at Hawthorn, he played eight games. While in his one season at Brisbane he played 14 of a possible 17 games. The medical and conditioning staff at the Lions should be applauded for the work they’ve done. Given their current history, I’d be backing them in to get Joe back to full health.

At his starting price point, he’s more than half that of Steele Sidebottom and Patrick Dangerfield. That’s some huge potential upside if he and his new Lions can get off to a strong start. If you’ve tried to build a team at the moment, you’d quickly realise that significant value is needing to be found on multiple lines to feel like you have a side that resembles competitiveness. Players like Daniher will play a valuable stepping stone role in 2021.

Speaking of the half, Daniher ‘s SuperCoach average last year 48 was approximately 40 points beneath that which he delivered in 2017. While in AFLFantasy it’s nearly 25 points per game. That’s supreme value if he can return anything near that this season.

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MY TAKE

One of The Coaches Panel’s regular mantras is that every game’s format requires a different strategy. Sometimes it means certain players are only relevant in a single format. While for others, they are genuine candidates no matter what.

In the case of Joe Daniher, it is SuperCoach that he’s at his peak of return on investment. There he’s priced just $30,000 over new bulldog Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. In this format, the risk is almost non-existent at that price, for that financial output you’re getting a proven commodity when normally you’re getting some untried.

Joe’s still worth considering in AFLFantasy and DreamTeam, but the question coaches will need to ponder is ‘can I get a comparable scoring output for a player with less risk at a cheaper output’? Furthermore, even with some ruck time, talls notoriously have a large scoring variance. From any week it could be 100 points depending on how often he converts his chances.

I like the inclusion of Daniher into the Lions side because he should get himself better opportunities to convert on the scoreboard due to that star-studded Brisbane midfield. For years his former side has lacked the clearance ball winners that have enabled a quick inside 50 entry, especially from the centre bounce.

With Lachie Neale, Dayne Zorko, Jarryd Lyons, Hugh McCluggage and Jarrod Berry rotating through the middle that won’t be an issue anymore. Given Joe’s marking strength both in contests and on the lead, we should see countless quick entry opportunities.

Brisbane have their scheduled bye in round 13 right in the middle of the MBR’s. That provides coaches that do start him with the opportunity to play him for the first twelve weeks, and then flip him to a premium forward coming off the bye.

Players like Patrick Dangerfield and Toby Greene as arguably the most prominent scoring candidates. Other options could be Connor Rozee, Jack Ziebell or Zac Butters. All will score well in 2021 if given the midfield minutes to succeed.

The elephant in the room is his durability, and on recent form at Essendon, coaches can have zero confidence he can get through a full season. Thankfully, as a fantasy coach, you don’t need him too. Anywhere from 6-12 weeks is what you need.

With a player like Joe, you need to identify why you won’t start him. Is it because you believe at his new side he won’t score well? I’d propose that a forecasted scoring dip isn’t a founded reason to pass in him. That’s an unfounded assumption right now.

Is he priced too awkwardly (especially in DT/AF) to given you the cash generation and scoring your looking for? Does he not fit your starting squad structure or strategy? Do you believe you can get a better performer cheaper? Certianly I’d be much more easily convinced to endorse these reason as to why you’d miss selecting him.

The major reason across formats to rule out Joe is his durability. It’s certainly a factor. If that’s the reason for passing then my encouragement for you would then be consistent with that across your squad. So that would mean missing on guys like Josh Kelly, Lance Franklin, Toby Greene and Zac Williams who all have a poor ‘injury history.’

Don’t pick and choose reasons for some and not for others, be consistent across how and why you choose the players that you do.

SuperCoach is an easy decision for me. If Joe Daniher gets through the preseason unscathed, then he’s a lock in my starting squad. At the price point, I see no risk. In AFLFantasy he’s still on the watchlist, while DreamTeam I’m likely to pass.

DRAFT DECISION

Similar to yesterday’s player revealed Lance Franklin, Big Joe is a perfect mid to late teen rounds of your draft selection. Here, coaches often look for flyers and value picks, which can have a minimal negative impact on your year.

At best, he flies and becomes a draft bolter that establishes a strong season for you. Conversely, he is a late round pick you discard into the pool which is common in this portion of draft day.

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#47 Most Relevant | Lance Franklin

Read Time:5 Minute, 42 Second

After not playing a game in 2020, Buddy Franklin is back and is priced at a price almost too good to be true.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Lance Franklin
Age: 33
Club: Sydney Swans
Position: Forward

2020 Highest Score:
Did Not Play

Career Highest Score:
204 Vs North Melbourne | AFLFantasy (2012)
236 Vs North Melbourne | SuperCoach (2012)

2020 Average:
Did Not Play

SuperCoach Price: $312,000
AFLFantasy Price: $377,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $416,600

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Last year didn’t quite go to plan for Lance Franklin. After exiting 2019 playing his lowest ever career games tally (10),’ Buddy’ was looking forward to turning the clock back and dominating the season. During last preseason many were already saying that he was in the best physical condition of his life. Once it hit into the Christmas break that’s when things turned for the worse.

After suffering a knee injury in the preseason, he was required to miss months in recovery. The COVID break actually gave him a chance to get back and play. However, with still a month to go in the season, the Swans ruled out a return in 2020.

While a disappointment at the time for AFL fans, what it means for fantasy football coaches is we’ve got a former topline premium forward at an insane price.

If you’ve spent any time playing fantasy football in the past decade, then you’d be familiar with the scoring power of Lance Franklin. Since 2008 the Hawthorn and Sydney superstar has been a premium staple in our forward lines.

A look at his fantasy foot averages during this time will remind you, just how good of a performer he is. In the past twelve seasons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he has averaged 96, 81, 99, 101, 101, 79, 95, 82, 95, 96, 91 & 70. For SuperCoach, he’s averaged 107, 88, 107, 110, 115, 90, 99, 87, 94, 98, 100 & 72

Over the past decade plus, Buddy has been an outstanding forward premium. His final seasons where he averaged 70 was actually an injury impacted season cause him to dip over 20 points per game from the previous year.

The added benefit coaches have is he’s now been further discounted by missing a full year. Arguably we’ve got a ‘double discount’ because of that.

Even at 33, the concern isn’t on his ability to score; the concern is around is the body. However, no realistic fantasy coach is expecting him to be a 20 game player. You need him to be the stepping stone that goes 80 over the opening few months. He can then be moved seamlessly to a bottomed out premium.

Coaches can choose one of two places to do this. After the opening 6-8 rounds, or at his multi-bye round at 14, he makes him an easy move to a forward premium coming off a goodbye.

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MY TAKE

What does Lance Franklin need to do to be selected in our round one side beyond just being named to play against Brisbane? Ultimately, it’s a pretty clear call. Have a preseason free of interruptions.

That’s not to say he must be going hell to leather from day dot. Certainly, it can be gradual load management increases. However, it needs to be free of setbacks. If this can happen, and he’s given a preseason game, he’s right in the selection mix in many formats.

Does the injury risk for an in season decrease just from a clear run at it during the preseason? No! It’s there for every player who plays. But an injury free preseason does give you clear visibility that he’s ticked every box possible. That way any mishaps were marginally more unavoidable.

Furthermore, the risk in selecting him even if he goes down with an injury is minimised with two things. Firstly, his starting price. In SuperCoach he barely $100,000 cheaper than Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. That’s an insane value given his scoring history. Worse case scenario you drop him down to a playing forward rookie you missed and pocket the cash.

Second, his current selection popularity. AFLFantasy is the only format of the game that’s ‘open’ at the time of writing, and he’s currently in one in five teams. With ownership trends that high even with an injury mid-game will still affect a high portion of coaches, you’ll be less impacted if chasing overall ranking.

DreamTeam coaches will see that at just over $400K he still has plenty of fat on the bone to warrant selection, right now he’s priced at 50% of Steele Sidebottom who’s the top priced forward. Buddy is certainly going to bring a strong scoring return should he plays. Similarly, in both AFLFantasy & SuperCoach, his value is immense.

Don’t worry about asking ‘can he still score?’ That’s the wrong question. Rather it should be this. Can you get a minimum of six games out of him? That means matches against Brisbane, Adelaide, Richmond, Essendon, GWS & Gold Coast. If he plays, he’ll average anywhere from 75-85 in AFLFantasy and 80+ in SuperCoach. That’s a handy reward given the starting price investment.

If you’re in the market for a stepping stone forward, then at very least Lance Franklin needs to be seriously considered with a preseason of interruptions.

DRAFT DECISION

Twice in the past decade played 20+ games, which speaks volumes that even when ‘fit’ his availability for a full season cannot be counted on. Scoring is great, but availability is crucial to draft success.

Lance Franklin is a perfect mid to late teen rounds of your draft selection. Here, coaches often look for flyers and value picks, which can have a minimal negative impact on your year.

At best, he flies and becomes a draft bolter that establishes a strong season for you. Conversely, he is a late round pick you discard into the pool which is common in this portion of draft day.

I’d not be selecting him any earlier than as your F4 on draft day.

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#48 Most Relevant | Luke McDonald

Read Time:5 Minute, 45 Second

Last season Luke McDonald was one of the most damaging scoring defenders in the back half of the year. Was it a sign of things to come? Or just an outlier?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Luke McDonald
Age: 25
Club: North Melbourne
Position: Defender

2020 Highest Score:
123 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
144 Vs Collingwood (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
133 Vs Brisbane | AFLFantasy (2018)
144 Vs Collingwood | SuperCoach (2020)

2020 Average:
72.5 (AFLFantasy) | 90.6(Adjusted Average)
95.4 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $512,900
AFLFantasy Price: $692,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $669,700

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

If you could hit ‘ALT-CTRL-DEL’ on the 2020 year, I’m pretty sure you wouldn’t have too many North Melbourne fans trying to stop you. Sadly for them, it was one of the worst years on recent memory.

Like in everything, you can always look for the bright sparks in the dark moments to give you hope for a brighter tomorrow. And that’s certainly what Luke McDonald’s season delivered. He averaged 20 disposals last year, up five per game more than 2019. Averaged five rebounds 50’s, up two from last year. He had more inside ’50s, increased handballs and clearances and capped it all of with winning the clubs best and fairest.

It wasn’t all roses for Luke; he started the year from a fantasy footy perspective quite slowly. In the opening seven rounds of the season, he averaged 62 in SuperCoach and had just one score over 80. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 50 (adjusted average 62) and scored over 60 in just two matches.

From round eight until the season completed he averaged 118 in SuperCoach, with only one match he failed to score over 94. Luke didn’t just sneak over the triple figure mark, but he constantly among the top scoring ceiling players in defence each week. His top five scores in the final eight games of the year were: 144, 138, 136 131 and 121.

During the final eight games of the season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 88.2, it included a 123, 121, 118 and three 80+ scores. If you were to look at as an adjusted average (current year x 1.25) to try and replicate a full season he’d have an average of 110. In the last five weeks of the season only Lloyd, Laird, Crisp, Stewart & Houston average higher.

2020 wasn’t just a drastic outlier. McDonald has shown over his career that he can deliver some fantasy friendly numbers. Back in 2017, he averaged 83 in SuperCoach which featured five tons and an additional four scores between 90-99. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 85, scored five tons and had five more scores between 90-99.

Beyond his impressive scoring capacity, what also makes McDonald extra tempting to select is the value that he offers coaches. Even though he’s priced as the 10th best AFLFantasy/DreamTeam defender and 17th in SuperCoach he’s priced approximately 20 points per game below the scoring rate he delivered in the final half part of 2020.

Given the challenges coaches have found building a starting squad, getting some inbuilt value to a premium scorer like McDonald is crucial. Should you look to McDonald over a Rory Laird or Lachie Whitfield you’ll be saving anywhere from $50,000-$100,000+ depending on the format you play.

Luke will also likely be unique ownership prospect in starting squads. With many choosing to pair the likes of Jake Lloyd, Lachie Whitfield and Rory Laird as the starting three defensive premiums.

If he does replicate the back half of 2020 into this new season, you’ll have both picked up a value selection and a likely point of difference in your side. The perfect platform to start the season.

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MY TAKE

One of the major reasons I cannot advocate for starting Luke McDonald is I do not believe the preseason game/s he plays will give you enough confidence to select him, especially in the limited trade formats.

In the preseason clubs are looking to take the game on and create match synergy between the whole side. For an AFL side, they get two games against opposition to test, trial and execute the preseason plans.

We rarely see teams employ taggers, heavy defensive tactics, or look to possess the ball in defensive 50 heavily. As a result, we often see quite ‘open’ football that doesn’t truly reflect the in season pressure and defence.

My point being, the things that helped McDonald flourish as a fantasy player last year cannot be proven in these games. That means your decision would be based predominantly on a hope that he retains that scoring rather than anything current.

For that reason, I believe he’s an upgrade target in DreamTeam & SuperCoach. In AFLFantasy, given the multiple ‘use or lose’ trades, you can be more adventurous with selections. In that format, I’m not opposed to starting him, ensure you have both a points threshold and be on an early season role watch to the Roos game style.

DRAFT DECISION

It was a dream scenario for owners in the draft last season. Just 14% of UltimateFooty leagues drafted for Luke McDonald with an average draft position of 287. At that price, he was easily the biggest bargain pick of 2020.

This season, if you wish to own him, then it’ll cost you substantially more. While he has the scoring potential to be a clear D1, he’s also no certainty to average 90+. With the backs available this season I’d be nervous having him as my top defender in my side.

If I could land him as a D2, I’d feel more comfortable that even should he regress in scoring I’m not leaving my defensive line too exposed.

The time to sell him in a keeper league was when he was on a hot streak late last season. Now, you won’t get anything ‘better’ for him that what he’s shown he can deliver. I’d recommenced holding and then hoping that last years form is the new normal for him.

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