50 Most Relevant

#48 Most Relevant | Dan Houston
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Read Time:5 Minute, 56 Second

He broke out late in 2019 and became one of the top-scoring defensive eligible players across all formats of the game. Can he do it for a full season? Or was it just a purple patch?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Dan Houston
Age: 22
Club: Port Adelaide Power
Position: Defender/Midfield

2019 Highest Score: 
123 Vs Essendon (AFLFantasy)
134 Vs Essendon (SuperCoach)

2019 Average: 
80.3 (AFLFantasy)
89.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $484,800
AFLFantasy Price: $596,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $580,800

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

In 2015 Port Adelaide struck upon a massive win in the 2016 rookie draft by selecting Dan Houston. The former Oakleigh Chargers co-captain was picked by the club as a medium-sized forward target at selection 45. At the under 18 championships he was lauded for is clean hands and for his reliability as a set shot for goal. Once walking into the club, he quickly developed into someone who could play off half-back for the club.

After spending a few years on the Port list a strong preseason saw him debut in round one of 2017 and play the opening seven games for the year. As a cash cow during this time he averaged 70 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 67 in SuperCoach. However, since then for the majority of the next two seasons, he’s been fantasy footy irrelevant for coaches.

From 2018 and the majority of the 2019 season he had games where he scored across half-back. However, on the most part was nothing more than a solid depth squad player for Drafts and Daily Fantasy games.

Things changed drastically for him in the latter third of last year. It started in the round fourteen clash against the Cats. Ken Hinkley and the coaching staff sent him to tag Tim Kelly. He did a pretty decent job on him too, keeping Kelly to 17 disposals and at 52% efficiency and the Power going on to win the game by eleven points. In that match, Houston managed 25 possessions, eleven of them contested. He won five clearances, six inside ’50s and scored 89 in AFLFantasy and 110 in SuperCoach.

Over the final five rounds of the year, Houston moved back into the midfield, and the strong fantasy footy scores flowed. During that five games stretch in SuperCoach, he posted three tons, one of which was a personal best of 134 and averaged 105. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam during this same stretch of games, he scored 100 or more in three matches didn’t drop a score below 89 and averaged 103.

In may only be a small sample size of games, but based off the seven games (Rounds 14-15 & 19-23), I tracked him playing as a midfielder he averaged 99 in SuperCoach and 93 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

It can be misleading and dangerous to begin ‘splitting’ a players averages. However, for Houston who had such a clearly defined role change, it can give fantasy coaches a level of insight about what we may lay ahead.

SUPERCOACHAFLFANTASY
PLAYING MIDFIELD9993
PLAYING DEFENCE8473

If those scoring trends continue into the new season that could place him as the enormous value, given his end of season average, he’s priced at 89 in SuperCoach and 80 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. He could have between 10-13 points per game of value in him.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

He’s a tricky one to pin down, as such he’s quite low in the 50 Most Relevant. Back in August Ken Hinkley explained the major reason for the midfield move. It was due to the need to bring quality ball use into the midfield unit, something Houston has in spades. So far this preseason he’s been training with midfield group and impressing the coaching staff in his continued development.

A look at the Port defensive unit would suggest he isn’t required there any longer. Hamish Hartlett, Darcy-Byrne Jones and Ryan Burton all can use the ball well by hand and foot and can play attacking roles off defensive 50/ Tom Jonas & Tom Clurey take up the key defensive posts while Riley Bonner rounds out the core defensive six. Should injuries strike Joel Garner Sam Mayes & Jarrod Lienert have all shown something at AFL level across half-back.

Houston needs to play through the midfield. Travis Boak, Ollie Wines, Tom Rockliff, Robbie Gray and Sam Powell-Pepper form the nucleus of the midfield group. Xavier Durrsma and Connor Rozee still need multiple rotations per quarter to keep fast-tracking their development. At first glance, things don’t look too bad for the Power, but to kick winning score players like Rozee and Gray must be used often inside forward 50. Added to this, Rockliff’s injury history implies he’s no certainty to play 22 games.

Dan Houston adds a combination of quality disposal, clean hands in the contest and some defensive pressure which they currently lack from that group. To select him in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy and DreamTeam you need him to have this role change to make the selection worthwhile.

Selecting him in your starting squad is a classic case of risk versus reward. The risk is that at his price point he must breakout and average in the ’90s for the selection to pay off. Without it, you’ll be stuck with a defender who’s scoring OK (late 70’s-early 80’s) but won’t be doing badly enough to prioritise him as a sideways trade. The reward is if he does play midfield he’ll score as a premium in our backlines and you’ll get them at a fraction of the price returning value on investment.

I believe he continues to play through the guts but I to give me the confidence to start him I’ll be watching his Marsh series games to determine his role. If he retains that midfield role, then he’ll be a popular D3 starting option for all formats.

Should he continues to play through the guts it will give me the confidence to start him. I’ll be watching his Marsh series games to determine his role. If he retains that midfield role, then he’ll be a popular D3 starting option for all formats.

DRAFT DECISION

I like the potential of Dan Houston when it comes to drafts of all formats. He’s got the potential to score as your topline defender (D1), but he won’t cost you that on draft day. In an ideal world, I’d love to be able to select him as my third defender. However, with strong preseason hype already surrounding him, you might have to bite a round or two early at D2 to secure his services. 

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#49 Most Relevant | Tom Doedee
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Read Time:4 Minute, 55 Second

An ACL Injury ruined his 2019 season just minutes into the year. Thanks to a tasty discount, this young Crow could be the perfect stepping stone in 2020.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Doedee
Age: 22
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Defender

2019 Highest Score: 
38 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
56 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

2019 Average: 
38 (AFLFantasy)
56 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $273,700
AFLFantasy Price: $403,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $247,200

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

After being selected in the 2015 AFL draft, Tom Doedee had to bide his time on the Adelaide Crows list. The departure of Jake Lever after 2017 cleared the way for Tom, and he went on on debut in 2018 and had a stunning season.

That year Doedee made himself at home in the Adelaide back six. A combination of being near impossible to beat when marked on-on-one in a marking contest. He’s shown elite intercept skills and scary quick closing speed has made him a fan favourite quickly. In 2018 he averaged 18 disposals, five marks per game, 3 rebound 50’s, three tackles, two score involvements and over seven intercept possessions per game.

From a SuperCoach perspective, he posted eleven scores of 82 or more including five tons with three of them over 110. That year he finished the season averaging 82.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he scored above 80 in eight different matches including two scores over 100. He finished the season averaging 73.

Adelaide’s hopes for the 2019 season were dealt a significant blow in round one, with Tom Doedee injuring his ACL and ending his season.

Injuries should never hope upon anyone; however, for the fantasy footy community, there is a silver lining. With long term, injuries come discounts and with discounts comes to value for money selection.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Missing the vast majority of last season has meant that Tom Doedee has been given a significant discount and is priced at under $300,000 in SuperCoach and under $250,000 DreamTeam. As a reference point, he’s only about $50,000 – $70,000 more expensive than the top-priced rookie in Matt Rowell.

At this price point, you are often picking players who are unproven scorers, lacking in job security for their AFL side or not yet shown they can cut it at the elite level. However, this isn’t the case when it comes to Tom Doedee.

At well under $300,000 in DT/SC and $403k in AFLFantasy he should be looked upon favourably even coming back off an ACL. As a point of contrast 12 months ago Adelaide teammate Brodie Smith was one of the most popular stepping stones in our backlines last year. At the start of last year, he was priced at $332,500 (SuperCoach), $439,000 (AFLFantasy) and $388,000 (DreamTeam.)

Before the season, Brodie’s past 64 games was at an average of 76 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 78 in SuperCoach. With Doedee, he’s priced cheaper than Smith last year in all forms and has a comparable scoring average.

Everything is currently on track for Doedee to return from his Christmas break and commence contact work at training. At this stage, he and the club are confident of playing in the Marsh Preseason games. What impact does the knee injury have on his scoring?

Unless you can time travel, you can not claim to know the impact it will have on him. However, what we can do is look at a comparable player who’s recently come off an ACL and see the effect it had for them. That player is former Crow Jake Lever. Here’s a breakdown of his scoring for AFLFantasy and SuperCoach both pre and post ACL.

AFLFantasy
AVG PRE ACL		AFLFantasy
AVG ACL SEASON		AFLFantasy
AVG POST ACL		DIFFERENTIAL
AVG PRE & POST
68.259.859.8– 8.4
SuperCoach
AVG PRE ACL		SuperCoach
AVG ACL SEASON		SuperCoach
AVG POST ACL		DIFFERENTIAL
AVG PRE & POST
796970.7– 8.3

The scoring drop is common for most talls coming back off ACL injuries. The range gap is between 5-20 points for players when you look at names like Jon Patton, Matt Scharnberg, Taylor Walker and Nic Naitanui.

At his price point, he’s a stepping stone to get you quickly to a bottomed-out premium if you need a fast mover. Ideally, if he’s scoring well we’d be a final defender upgrade with the Crows having the last multi bye week. He’s the perfect candidate to hold until the round 14 bye and then upgrade if required to a premium defender coming off the bye. Additionally, especially in SuperCoach if he can average back around the 80 markers, then he’s a perfect D7 bench cover if needed.

In reality, the gap (if any) from what he did pre-injury as opposed to what your forecast he’ll deliver will ultimately determine if you select him or not.
For SuperCoach he finds himself in my starting squad, and it’ll take some doing to remove him from there even if he does have the projected scoring dip.

DRAFT DECISION

If he can back up a similar average this year as to what he delivered in 2018 then for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’ll be a bench filler at best in deeper draft leagues. However, in SuperCoach leagues he could provide great value on selection point and can fill one of your final two defensive spots on-field if things go well.

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#50 Most Relevant | Blake Acres
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Read Time:5 Minute, 40 Second

For years Blake Acres has shown he has the potential to breakout. At a new club is 2020 finally his time? Let’s kick off the 2020 fantasy footy season of the 50 Most Relevant.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Blake Acres
Age: 24
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Midfield/Forward

2019 Highest Score: 
96 Vs Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
105 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

2019 Average: 
67.5 (AFLFantasy)
70.7 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $384,400
AFLFantasy Price: $501,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $488,200

Blake Acres is a new recruit for the Fremantle Dockers. PIctured is Blake at the Dockers HQ in Cockburn. Picture: Justin Benson-Cooper The West Australian

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Long-time players of SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam will be familiar with the potential of Blake Acres. After being drafted at pick 19 in the 2013 AFL draft, the West Australian native has shown glimpses of his potential.

As a junior, the versatile modern-day midfielder drew comparisons early in his career to Sydney’s Josh Kennedy and Adelaide’s Bryce Gibbs. What makes Acres such a damaging player is his versatility. He posses the ability to play as a ball-winning inside midfielder, outside runner and even a third tall forward target.

At St Kilda, Blake Acres was denied opportunities to play significant minutes as a midfielder. He’s been stuck behind the likes of Seb Ross, Jack Steele, Dan Hannebery, Jack Billings and to a lesser extent Luke Dunstan all getting a role ahead of him.

On the occasions, he was allowed to use his hulking frame through the midfield his fantasy numbers showed plenty of promise. In 2018 his opening five scores in SuperCoach were 144, 90, 97, 92 & 107 averaging 106. He finished the SuperCoach season averaging 88. 

In AFLFantasy it was 124, 92, 77, 83 and 100 with a five-game average of 95.2. At the end of 2018, he managed a total of twelve matches and averaged 81.

Across last season he continued to show promise with AFLFantasy scores of 96 (Melbourne), 93 (Hawthorn), 92 (Melbourne) and 91 (Carlton.) These numbers were more superior in SuperCoach with a 105 (Hawthorn), 103 (Melbourne), 102 (Carlton) and 99 (Western Bulldogs).

Sometimes your key strength (which for Acres is his versatility) can go against you. Instead of being allowed to find a home inside the St Kilda midfield he was used by the coaching staff to plug gaps in the side. This made it difficult for him to find a rhythm in a roll as well as impact his fantasy football output.

Thankfully for prospective owners, we have two positive out of this. Firstly the move to Fremantle could not have been to a more perfect club who are needing to bolster the midfield. Secondly, he’ll be priced significantly cheaper than what he’s capable of delivering. In AFLFantasy Blake starts the 2020 season priced 13 points less expensive in contrast to his 2018 season. For SuperCoach it’s 18 points below his personal best season.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Fremantle has done the opposite of Acres firmer club St Kilda. The club has allowed established players to depart and will head to the draft to top up the list. With the departures of Brad Hill and Ed Langdon, outside midfield opportunities have arisen at the club. Lachie Neale departed twelve months ago, and David Mundy is a further year older. The Dockers must look to the future stars of the club, and Blake Acres must take the opportunity in front of him.

Andrew Brayshaw and Adam Cerra could be given large amounts of responsibility in the midfield to support skipper Nat Fyfe. Michael Walters should also move into an even more dominant midfield role too. Given damaging small forward Liam Henry was taken in the draft.

Acres could be a perfect fit inside the contest for the Dockers. If he can get his body right, he could be a genuine fantasy candidate if he maintains his forward status again.

Role in the team is the key to his relevance. If played as a midfielder (inside or out) this he must be on the Preseason watchlist. Best case scenario is he’s a keeper. However, to make him an excellent selection, he needs to go 85 or higher in AFLFantasy and 90+ in SuperCoach. As always with stepping stone and breakout candidates, you need to save a trade as an upgrade. It is just in case they don’t deliver on the best-case scenario.

Fremantle has the week off in round thirteen, meaning he’s a potentially strong candidate to run into the byes before upgrading him. It’s not a pretty listing given that Geelong, Essendon, Port Adelaide, West Coast, St Kilda and Brisbane are the teams coming off the round twelve bye. That said you could target someone like Devon Smith, Gary Ablett, Jack Steven, Jack Darling and maybe even Robbie Gray.

There is plenty of upside about Blake, but coaches need to go into this selection with eyes wide open. As he enters into his seventh AFL season, he’s yet to play more than 19 games in a single season. Injuries have been cruel to him with no continuous injury pattern occurring.

He also has come from a side with one of the shallowest midfield groups, where he was unable to secure a permanent position. He’s no certainty at Fremantle just like he was at St Kilda.

I’m keeping a sharp eye on his preseason, however, right now he’s a strong candidate to start in my AFLFantasy side and consideration in the other formats should I look for a breakout candidate at F3/F4.

DRAFT DECISION

His draft range will be wide given were people rate him and when your draft is held. The key in your draft is being really clear in your ranking of him and making sure it’s based on your average projection not on what he did last year.

For some, that’ll put him in the high 80’s and others he’ll be a super late-round pick up. Personally I’d feel comfortable taking him as a forward 4 position knowing that he could either breakout and become your F2.

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What is the 50 Most Relevant?
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Read Time:2 Minute, 32 Second

And so it begins! Another fantasy football preseason filled with optimism, hope and the possibilities that in 2020 maybe this year will be your year for fantasy success. 

Between now and when the season opens, and lockouts commence you will consider hundreds of players, trial thousands of combinations and probably tinker with your fantasy football side multiple times per day. Here at the Coaches Panel, our desire is never to tell you what to do. Instead, it’s to give you useful information for you to make informed decisions about your side. 

What makes a player fantasy football relevant?

It’s several factors, including but not limited to: starting price, scoring ceiling, scoring consistency, what position they hold, and the opportunities that may have become available during the offseason. These are just some of the reasons a player is relevant in salary cap formats. 

The list isn’t about predicting the top 50 averaging players for the year, far from it. Instead, it’s about looking at all players, across all salary cap formats to see who could help us achieve our goal of fantasy footy success.

The goal of the 50 most relevant and fantasy footy content, in general, this early in the preseason is about doing the research, having open-minded conversations and seeing the potential possibilities at our fingertips.

Too often as fantasy coaches, we can become entrenched in a certain way of thinking and don’t enter into a new season with an open mind. Whether it by being ‘burnt’ by a player previously or having a strategy fail. By closing our mind we close ourselves to possibilities. Great coaches always consider different players, alternative approaches and new ways of playing the game. Who knows, we may find ourselves missing out on the very manoeuvre that could be the difference in you winning the title.

When Does it Start?

Starting January 1st, and then for the following 49 days, I’d like to invite you to join with me as I share with you who I believe are the 50 most relevant players in one combined universal list. 

The countdown will include a daily article, podcast as well as a drafting range projection for both single-season and keeper leagues. And if you wish to get early access to 50 Most Relevant podcasts, then you can do that by joining our Patreon. 

I look forward to spending the next few months discussing fantasy footy and can’t wait to hear about your thoughts on who I believe are the 50 Most Relevant players for the coming season. 

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Throughout the countdown some players you’ll agree with, others you won’t, and that’s OK. This is a subjective list, but one that I hope encourages you as a fantasy coach. Other members of the panel and I would love to chat about all forms of fantasy with you. 

Have your say at our Facebook,  Twitter or Instagram. 

About Post Author

CP Writers

mj.want@lightmelbourne.com.au
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#1 Most Relevant: Patrick Dangerfield
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Read Time:3 Minute, 48 Second

Christmas came early for fantasy coaches when it was announced in early December would be forward eligible in 2019.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Patrick Dangerfield
Age: 28
Club: Geelong Cats
Position: Midfield/Forward

2018 Highest Score: 
158 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
187 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 
106.3 (AFLFantasy)
121.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $660,500
AFLFantasy Price: $771,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $760,900

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2018 never started the way he wanted injuring his hamstring in the JLT community series, and as such he missed the opening round of the year. That didn’t dint his ability to deliver another strong season that ends with him being part of the All-Australian team for the sixth time.

Upon return, He was still a dominant force in the midfield with his explosive power and skills on show averaging 28 disposals, eight score involvements, five tackles and five inside 50’s a game.

Last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he scored 15 tons from his 21 games and had just four matches where his centuries were above 120 ending the year with an average of 106. For SuperCoach he scored 19 tons, 9 of those were over 120 and a season-ending average of 121.

Danger always spent time up forward both as a Crow and now as a Cat, but last year it was considerably more as he managed 24 goals for the year and a season highlight of 4 goals and 34 possessions in round 23, 2018 against the Suns. This extra time as a forward dint limit his fantasy ceiling in contrast to previous seasons, but the positive for us as coaches is that now we get him as a no brainer forward selection

What’s interesting to me is that even though he spent more time FWD in 2018, he kicked more goals ‘resting there’ in 2017. From a fantasy footy perspective in 2017 from his 21 games in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored 18 tons and a colossal ten of those being over 120 ending in an average of 120. For SuperCoach he posted 19 tons, but his ceiling went next level as 16 of those were over 120 and ended the year averaging 136.

MY TAKE

What was the reason for the scoring dip last year? Simple, The need for Geelong to create better support inside forward 50 coupled with an overabundance of midfielders that are mainly one dimensional in terms of their versatility.

Geelong has identified and have rectified this with some offseason recruits but also in the plan to play Gary Ablett more as a forward. Further to this Chris Scott has spoken at length about Danger and his desire as a coach to use him more frequently in the guts like in 2016-2017 seasons. What will add this is Patrick has slimmed down, and while ‘best preseason ever’ feels like a game of fantasy footy bingo in the preseason it certainly looks correct for Danger.

Sometimes you can over complicate fantasy football because I can see no benefit to choosing to start without him. At worst he maintains his current output which still makes him the likely #1 forward for the year. Best case scenario he returns to his previous year’s numbers and becomes a candidate for the #1 scoring player overall.

While you can’t win your league or overall rankings glory in the first few weeks, you can make it near on impossible to succeed if you get ‘too cute’ and start the most bankable starting squad option in years.

I’m starting him everywhere, and I’m yet to hear a compelling and coherent argument not to start him. Save the pain, do it, pick Dangerfield!

Embed from Getty Images

DRAFT DECISION

In a SuperCoach scoring format, he’s the easiest selection for me as the number one overall selection. Grundy or Macrae may tempt some, but for me, it’s a one-horse race. In AFLFantasy scoring he’s undoubtedly in the conversation as the first picked, but not a certainty. If you have a top three selection, he could be in play, but anything beyond that, and you’ll almost certainly be without him this year.

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#2 Most Relevant: Will Setterfield
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Read Time:3 Minute, 42 Second

The talented Will Setterfield finally became part of the navy blues in 2019, and he now will add some physical presence and support for Patrick Cripps.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Will Setterfield
Age: 21
Club: Carlton Blues
Position: Midfield/Forward

2017 Highest Score: 
70 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy)
63 Vs Richmond (SuperCoach)

2017 Average: 
49.5 (AFLFantasy)
44.5(SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $144,900
AFLFantasy Price: $251,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $212,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

After joining the Giant’s academy as a teen, Will Setterfield was initially being bid on by Carlton in his draft season by was matched by GWS in the 2016 draft. Now that he has made it to Carlton he provides a long-term option for Carlton’s developing outfit.

He may only have two career games at AFL under his belt due to an unfortunate run with injuries. However, in his second match, he copped a heavy knock to the heard early in the third quarter causing him to miss the remainder of the game. In his AFL debut, he had 12 possessions, three marks & 6 tackles. However, Setterfield had shown promise, averaging 25 disposals, 4.7 clearances and 7.6 tackles across seven NEAFL games in 2017.

Entering into the 2018 season Will was again priced cheaply and looked to be a promising cash cow. Sadly thought Setterfield ruptured an anterior cruciate ligament during a practice match against the Swans which ended his season.

At under 18 levels, many talent scouts had compared him to Western Bulldogs star Marcus Bontempelli and even Fremantle’s David Mundy where his physical presence and composure was evident.

MY TAKE

Something that can destroy the momentum of any fantasy coaches season is when their cash cow is in and out of the side and not consistently making money week in week out for 6-10 weeks. One of the great unknowns with many first and even some second-year players is their security to stay in the side week in week out. Who cares how good they can score, but if they’re not in the team, they won’t be making you any money. The strength of Will Setterfield is that he is safely inside Carlton’s best 22.

The other weapon as a cash cow which he possesses is the fact is he’s a dual position player and eligible both in the midfield and forward line. The DPP link opens up numerous opportunities both for on-field scoring flexibility b in the rolling lockout formats of the game where you can even more easily maximise on-field scores of cash cows by moving him (if needed) to the bench in either line.

The only real knock on Setterfield has been his body and his run of injuries across not just his time at AFL but even in his junior seasons. In 2014 he injured his patella and required surgery. The season following he missed the back half of the season with another knee injury. 2016 saw him suffer from a concussion, foot injury and injured his AC joint. 2017 saw his season interrupted with a reasonably major ankle injury and then last year he did his ACL.

He hasn’t had a faultless preseason, but over the past few weeks he’s entered into full training and will be ready to play in the JLT community series and barring any more setbacks is a certainty to debut for the Blues in round one.

He’s already one of the most highly owned players across all formats of the game and by round one I expect he could be the most popular cash cow across every format. I’m starting him everywhere, and I expect you probably are too.

Embed from Getty Images

DRAFT DECISION

I wouldn’t be opposed to the using one of the last few rounds selection in either a keeper or single season draft. The possibilities are substantial, and the risk at that position in the draft is not existent.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

Do you believe he is fantasy relevant?
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#3 Most Relevant: Brodie Grundy
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Read Time:5 Minute, 33 Second

Last year he took his fantasy game and his Magpies to another level. Can he do it again in 2019?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Brodie Grundy
Age: 24
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: Ruck

2018 Highest Score: 
151 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
167 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 
120 (AFLFantasy)
130.4 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $708,200
AFLFantasy Price: $871,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $858,300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Brodie Grundy is the prototype of the modern ruckman. A mobile big man who’s an expert at winning the ball to advantage and feeding it down to his fleet of dominant midfielders. Equally as capable at creating tackle pressure at ground level, being used in the link up forward plays and using his aerobic and endurance to cover the ground from end to end.

Over many years, Brodie Grundy has been building as a fantasy beast. Even in his debut against GWS in round 18, 2013 it became very quickly apparent he’d one day be a superstar of the game. That night he had 14 possessions, seven tackles and scored 92 in AFLFantasy and 75 in SuperCoach. In 2017 he ended the year averaging 106 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and posted 13 tons with 4 of them being over 120. While in SuperCoach he averaged 97 with 9 tons and three of those over 120.

Heading into 2018 many fantasy coaches, myself included got scared off starting him because of the potential ruck share with Mason Cox. Right across the year prior anytime they split the ruck role Brodie’s fantasy numbers would drop away and even after Round 1 you were right to have the concern. In that match against the Hawks, Grundy had 28 Hit Outs for Grundy while Mason had 18. Thankfully for us for the rest of the year Nathan Buckley got the structures right beyond that Cox never won more than 15 hitouts in a game again.

Last season he lifted his average by 14 points per game in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and an insane 33 in SuperCoach to post his personal best averages. In all scoring formats, he had only three matches that he didn’t score over the hundred markers. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he posted 19 tons, 13 of which were over 120 and a massive five over 150. His numbers for SuperCoach were even stronger with 19 tons, 12 of them over 120, seven above 150 and his lowest score of the year was 95.

MY TAKE

He may be the highest priced SuperCoach and third highest in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, but Brodie Grundy is worth every single cent. While you may be able to get him cheaper after the first price drops, based off last years history, it may be a tiny window of time and only a marginal reduction. Is $50K that big of a ‘gain’ to your side given the number of points you may miss trying to get him in? This pain may be compounded if you’re also running against likely top tier scorers in Jackson Macrae or Rory Laird.

To top off his high scoring ceiling, consistency of hundreds and a relatively strong scoring floor is the fact that he barely misses matches. Last year he didn’t miss a game, in 2017 he didn’t play in two, but that was due to a Ben Brown sling tackle, while in 2016 he missed one game when he was omitted from the side in favour of Jarrod Witts.

Do the new ruck rules help or hurt his scoring? The rule I’m referring to states that “A ruckman who takes direct possession of the ball from a bounce, throw-up or boundary throw-in will no longer be regarded as having had the prior opportunity.” 

Taking direct possession at stoppages is something Brodie Grundy is already doing consistently in games and could only further encourage this. While it may impact a fraction of his hitout numbers, it could see an increase it kicks, handballs and even tackles making sure any potential hitout losses are levelled out in his fantasy scoring.

He is a good captaincy choice and without ‘permanent captain’ Tom Mitchell we’ll need players of his ceiling and consistency to help us post massive scores across the season. The often unspoken benefit of starting with him is the fact that his team have many of their games pre-bye as one of the first few matches in each round. Inside the opening seven rounds, they have only one Saturday night game, and the rest are all Thursday/Friday matches. To make it even stronger, the Pies have only one game before the bye where they are playing after a Saturday making him a robust Vice Captaincy loophole options weekly in SuperCoach and DreamTeam while also a reliable option for the Thursday matches in AFLFantasy.

If you wanted to look for a reason to pass on him then the only ‘straw; you can grasp for is the limited training schedule he’s been on over the past few weeks as the club manage a toe injury. Any injury in the preseason is never ideal, but the club is adamant that at this stage it will not impact his ability to play in the JLT community series.

I’m starting him in all formats, and the only change on this would be if his current ‘light training’ turned into something more serious which would force him missing JLT Series matches and being in doubt for round one.

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DRAFT DECISION

The only way you’ll have a chance to own Brodie Grundy this year in a seasonal draft is if you have a top 2 selection. I’d still happily take him as the #1 pick in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam scoring. I know it’d weaken me in other lines but I still think he’s that good of a scorer and given the late value in the forward lines especially I’d happily take him. In SuperCoach, I’d prefer someone else who’s yet to be revealed in the 50 Most Relevant as the #1 selection over him. However, If I had pick 2 or 3 and Grundy was on the board I’d easily select him.

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#4 Most Relevant: Jackson Macrae
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Read Time:6 Minute, 10 Second

In 2018 he went from consistent premium to be one of the elite scorers across every format. The big question is, can Jack Macrae do it again?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jack Macrae
Age: 24
Club: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfield

2018 Highest Score: 
190 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy)
189 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 
122.6 (AFLFantasy)
127 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $689,700
AFLFantasy Price: $793,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $781,900

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For years Jack Macrae has been a faithful and consistent fantasy football premium, but in 2018 he took it to the elite levels of scoring and was incredibly unlucky to win his first All Australian selection. Last year Macrae averaged 32.8 disposals per game and led the Dogs’ contested possessions and clearances. Even though he missed three matches due to a hamstring injury, Jack was ranked ninth in the AFL in total handballs and total disposals.

In AFLFantasy he was the second-best averaging midfielder of the season with only Tom Mitchell eclipsing him and with third place Andrew Gaff 12 points per game behind him. His season average of 122.6 was an increase of 18 points per game on last seasons and was made up of sixteen tons, ten of those were over 120, five of those were over 140 and one which included personal best 190 in the final round of the year. Chances were if you captained Macrae that week, you won your league Grand Final.
On top of his consistent hundred scores, he had only two matches last year that he failed to reach 90, one of which he injured his hamstring before halftime. If you were to refocus his average on games, he completed his average for completed games increased to an outstanding 127.

For SuperCoach he delivered a stunning season with only Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn and Tom Mitchell providing stronger seasonal averages. His average of 127 was an astounding 20 point jump on his 2017 season and included 16 over 100, 12 over 120 and like in AF he had just the two scores under 90 one, of course, being an injury impacted the game. If we were to remove this match his already strong SuperCoach average would lift to 131.

Last year he went to a new level, but for years Macrae has been a premium midfielder even since his second season in the AFL back in 2014. Since that time his season averages for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam have been 104, 104, 98, 104 and last years 122. For SuperCoach it’s averages of 100, 99, 93, 107 and 127. In the space of the past five seasons, he’s missed just ten matches but some of those included games where he was dropped back to the VFL and weren’t injury affected as he struggled for form at times in 2016.

MY TAKE

We have to applaud his season, but at the same time, we need to ask the question ‘where did this scoring boost occur’? From a statistical perspective he increased his disposals by 5 per game, he kicked six more goals than the year prior and delivered the ball inside 50 on average an extra time per game. Interestingly his Uncontested rate of possession increased, and on average he tackled less than he did in 2017.

Anecdotally he became the midfield leader after years of Marcus Bontempelli being viewed by the footy public as the only real elite midfielder in the Dogs side. Macrae elevated his game to a new level, and the unsung hero to his success is that fact that he is a running machine. Countless times last year he showed he is more than capable at winning the ball at a contest then, through his elite endurance make his way to the next stoppage, collect another possession on either the inside or outside of the contest, all the while leaving his opponent in his wake.

The big many fantasy coaches face can he maintain anywhere near last years seasonal numbers? The inclusion of Tom Liberatore does undoubtedly take some midfield rotations away from somebody, but in all honesty, I do not see how the damages the scoring potential of Macrae. Instead, it’ll be the bit players that run through the midfield group that may get more limited opportunities.

He isn’t dependant on ball winning at the contest to build up his scoring columns. If you look at his season statistically you’ll see he wins both the contested and uncontested ball, can tackle, pick up marks, impacts the scoreboard and just never stops running. This also bodes well for when the tagger comes and lines up on him given that even if certain areas of his game get limited, he can find another way to impact the game and generate fantasy points.

I find it funny, so many in the fantasy community seem to have doubts on Macrae’s ability to ‘do it again’ after jumping 18 AFLFantasy and 20 SuperCoach points per game on his previous averages. However, they have none on Brodie Grundy who also had a breakout season jumping 14 AFLFantasy points and 33 SuperCoach points on his 2017 average. Both are very different players, but I find minimal signs (like Grundy) to suggest his scoring will drop away so significantly that he shouldn’t be a worthy starting squad selection.

Whether you choose to start or not you’ll want Jack Macrae in your completed side. If your passing on him in the hope he’ll be cheaper, later on, make sure you have a plan for how you can quickly get him in. By the times off the bye in round 13 it’ll be too late as he’s the type of player who can take a season away from you quickly if you don’t have him.

His opening five games of the season and scores against them from last year are are against Sydney (128 AF,103 SC), Hawthorn (DNP), Gold Coast (151 AF, 189 SC), Collingwood (113 AF, 102 SC) and Carlton (124 & 145 AF, 141 & 110 SC). If he scores in 2019 against them as he did in 2018, then he’s not going to be dropping that price anytime soon.

Right now I’m choosing to start with him in every format of the game, while I know I could potentially pick him up cheaper as the year goes on I’d rather bank the points now and not worry about his price. After all, his price only matters as an owner if you ever have to trade them.

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DRAFT DECISION

If you have a pick in the opening round outside of the top five don’t even worry about it, you’ve got no chance of owning Jack Macrae.

In a Keeper league that’s just commencing he departs the draft board at a similar time while in an existing league you don’t trade players like Macrae at all.

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#5 Most Relevant: Jake Lloyd
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Read Time:4 Minute, 35 Second

In my mind, the only injury can prevent Jake Lloyd from ending 2019 as the #1 defender across SuperCoach, AFLFantasy and DreamTeam.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jake Lloyd
Age: 25
Club: Sydney Swans
Position: Defender

2018 Highest Score: 
163 Vs Fremantle (AFLFantasy)
173 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

2018 Average: 
101.6 (AFLFantasy)
112 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $608,200
AFLFantasy Price: $738,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $726,900

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Jake Lloyd is one of the leagues most underrated and consistent players in the league. He’s a gut runner who’s outside disposal compliments a side that has plenty of midfield grunt and is one of the reasons why his teammates love to get the ball into his hands whether it be departing their defensive fifty or transitioning the ball across the ground.

2018 wasn’t his only strong fantasy year as a premium defender, in 2017 he averaged 92 in AFLFantasy and scoring 8 tons across the season while SuperCoach he averaged 87 and six tons. These averages while strong are not an accurate reflection of the whole year. In round 10 he was concussed within the opening minutes and didn’t score over 5. His actual average of ‘full’ games is 96.7 in AFLFantasy and 91.4 in SuperCoach.

In 2018 he led the club in highest average disposals (28) and rebound 50’s (6) and tallied 30-plus possessions eight times throughout the season. Furthermore, he went at a disposal efficiency of 79%, and 20 of these possessions were uncontested. How he increased his fantasy numbers was due to a bump in his use of the ball by foot (an increase of 2 per game) as well as marks (0.7 per game.)

From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective, he scored 11 tons with nine of those being over 110 while in SuperCoach it was 14 tons and 12 of them were over 120. These are elite numbers for a defender for a season, but he scored better as the season went one.

Between round 1-7 he averaged 88 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 89 in SuperCoach. However, from round 8 until seasons end, he had just 2 SuperCoach scores under 100, he didn’t drop under 90 and averaged 122. For AFLFantasy he averaged 107 and had only two scores below 90 in those 15 weeks.

MY TAKE

When investing the level of your salary cap that it takes to secure Lloyd you want to ensure that he’s worth shelling out the big bucks on, thankfully it is! He possesses a high scoring ceiling, strong basement and barely has a low score and has missed just three games in 4 seasons making him reliable and durable.

Recently Champion Data stated that “As per previous seasons, there will be no disposal given when a player kicks-in while still in the square, even after the umpire has called “play on”. Once the player steps completely out of the square before kicking-in, this will count as disposal, similar to past seasons after a kick-in to self. All handballs will be counted as disposals regardless of where the player is standing.”

One of the new variables fantasy coaches will need to navigate to succeed the new Kick-ins rules and the impact to scoring that will have. Last year Lloyd took just 50% of all Sydney kick-ins, and about a third those he played on. While it is only limited data both in the lower levels that have trialled such rules such as WAFL and even in the AFLW, the vast majority of kick-ins end up seeing a ‘play on’ be signalled by the umpire, and thus disposal being awarded to the player. With still two third’s of his kick in duties ‘up for grabs’ in terms of gaining more fantasy points coaches can be optimistic that Lloyd doesn’t just retain his 2018 averages but could even potentially eclipse them.

Rarely does a defensive player who’s delivered a seasonal average in the 100’s come in as a possible value selection but given these new rules barring someone taking the kicks away from Lloyd (which I don’t see happening) then he’s got room to go up again. I believe Jake Lloyd will be the #1 averaging and highest scoring defensive option of this season and I am starting him in every scoring format. Nobody is a ‘must have’ it’ll be complicated to win your league or succeed in overall rankings if he’s not in your side for a large portion of the year.

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DRAFT DECISION

I believe Jake Lloyd is the safest and best across the formats defender and as such he’s going to go very early in drafts of all formats. It’s not uncommon to see him taken in mock drafts as soon as pick 4 in AFLFantasy scoring drafts. In SuperCoach it’s probably a touch high but as a later opening selection if you coupled that with a strong M1 with your second pick would undoubtedly be a strong base to start from.

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#6 Most Relevant: Michael Gibbons
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Read Time:3 Minute, 51 Second

He may have only officially joined the Carlton Football club some days ago, now Michael Gibbons is an AFL listed player, and for fantasy coaches, it couldn’t have been at a better club.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Michael Gibbons
Age: 23
Club: Carlton Blues
Position: Midfield

SuperCoach Price: $102,400
AFLFantasy Price: $170,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $130,300

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Last year in the Victorian Football League (VFL) Micahel Gibbons tied with Anthony Miles to win his second consecutive J.J Liston Medal, the VFL equivalent of the Brownlow Medal. In 2018 he ranked first in the league for total disposals (averaging 28 per game), clearances (seven) and inside-50s (6.5) as well as recording club high numbers in contested possessions (12) and tackles (six) across all 18 VFL matches. Gibbons has also been named in the VFL Team of the Year in each of the last three seasons.

Gibbons is a natural ball-winner who’s capable of disposing of the ball confidently on either side of the body, possesses strong athletic ability and a desire to win every contest he finds himself in. Since joining Williamstown five seasons ago, this midfield-forward has been a consistent and standout performer.

After missing out numerous times to be selected by an AFL club in the past few drafts, Michael Gibbons had thought yet again his AFL dream had passed him by when the final rookie selection was called out on November 23rd last year. Little did he know that within three weeks he would find himself invited to train at Carlton after the news that co-captain Sam Docherty had once again suffered a season-ending knee injury.

Since arriving at the club, he’s won over teammates and coaches with his insatiable hunger to learn, ferocity for the contested ball and his elite running has tested even longtime club leader Ed Curnow.

As a basement priced rookie, Michael Gibbons has done everything possible to earn his way onto an AFL list, and if the past eight weeks is anything to go by, he’s going to continue to press his case for an early season debut.

MY TAKE

Given the list profile of the Carlton, you don’t recruit a player like Gibbons unless you expect him to play. The Blues list position is such where kids need to be given every opportunity to develop and giving the games at the elite level is the only way possible to see whether they’ll make it at AFL level or not. Previously the club has used some more mature age players from other clubs (who I’ll politely call list cloggers) to take places of kids but it does appear at least in the last 12 months they’ve moved away from this.

The only real criticism on Gibbons wasn’t on his actual footballer ability, but instead, it was that he’s not tall enough, but at 175cm he’s nearly the same size as new Lions Lachie Neale who’s just the 2cm Taller. Like Neale, he has shown an insatiable hunger in the contest and keeps getting the football over and over in the contest.

As part of the Carlton midfield, he will add additional inside support for Patrick Cripps. On top of this, he’ll also model hunger, effort and passion to the young players at the club, three traits that haven’t been essential qualities of the Blues. Here’s a look some of the most recent VFL seasons data numbers as shared by Champion Data.

Even if he doesn’t start the year, he’ll be given a good crack at it during the season and will be one if the most popular rookie upgrades. At some point in the season Gibbons will be among the most popular owned rookies and if his VFL is anything to go by he should be a fantastic cash cow for fantasy coaches in all formats.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

I wouldn’t be opposed to the using one of the last few rounds selection in either a keeper or single season draft. The possibilities are sky high, and the risk at that position in the draft is not existent.

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