50 Most Relevant Archives - Page 31 of 32

#37 Most Relevant: Dylan Roberton

Read Time:4 Minute, 30 Second

He was one of the surprise packet premiums of 2017 but after a sudden fall mid game that was triggered by an irregular heartbeat. Thankfully he’s got the medical all clear and now presents fantasy coaches a real value selection.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Dylan Roberton
Age: 27
Club: St Kilda Saints
Position: Defender

2018 Highest Score:
103 Vs Brisbane (AFLFantasy)
90 Vs Brisbane (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
63 (AFLFantasy)
68.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $297,500
AFLFantasy Price: $537,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $360,500

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2018 started full of fantasy footy promise for Dylan Roberton and the owners that started with him. He opened up the seasons scoring with a 103 for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 90 in SuperCoach, however just 3 weeks later he collapsed midway during the game against the Cats. He somehow ran off the ground, yet was correctly sent off to the hospital by the St Kilda medical team where an irregular heart was discovered. Sadly for Saints fans and fantasy coaches that was the last we saw him play, thankfully the club took all necessary precautions to take care of his long-term health.

While not yet back to full training Roberton is doing a modified program but the St Kilda fitness staff and coaches have said on more than one occasion during the preseason that they expect him to be ready to play in the JLT Community Series. This is great news for a variety of different reasons but for fantasy coaches, this once premium defender is priced in both DreamTeam and SuperCoach especially in a range you must consider him.

Reason being, just 12 months earlier Dylan was coming off a personal best fantasy footy season and averaged over 90 across all formats off the game. In SuperCoach he averaged 92.5, he went over 100 in 8 matches including a monster 149 against the Hawks. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam coaches he averaged 90 and scored 8 tons with 3 of them over the 120 range. As great as these numbers are it was actually the early 12 games of the season where the numbers are even more impressive.

Over the first 12 rounds of the 2017 season, he averaged 102.83 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 104 in SuperCoach. For under $300,000 in SuperCoach and just over $350,000 in DreamTeam, you can get a guy who’s capable of going on big scoring runs like that. If Dylan could get near those early seasons numbers, he’ll be an easy sideways trade to a fallen premium after 5-6 rounds.

2017 is far from a ‘once off’ fantasy relevant year. In 2015 his first season at the club he played 20 games and averaged 82.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and scored four times over the hundred, while SuperCoach he averaged 90.5 and hit the triple-digit score five times all of which were over 115.

MY TAKE

We’re blessed with so many value options in 2019, and while it could probably be said for most seasons this year more than many others feels like we’re blessed with multiple robust value options across all lines. While we can’t have all of them, selecting the correct one for the right format will pay huge dividends. While he does have some value in him for AFLFantasy, the real value is DreamTeam and even more so in SuperCoach.

Priced at just under $300k in SuperCoach he’s less than $100k than first-year player Sam Walsh, and given that price tag, any coach that is looking for a midprice option in defence needs to consider what Roberton can do. He’s proven for multiple seasons in SuperCoach he’s capable of averaging 90 which is good enough to put him around the top 15 defenders and a likely D6 keeper. Even if he doesn’t get at his price, he’s a very capable stepping stone that will get you close enough to one of the first fallen defensive premiums.

Right now I have Dylan Roberton placed into my D4 position for SuperCoach and will only need to see him back into full training and complete the JLT unhindered to lock him away. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s not out of contention, but I’d need to change my current backline structure to fit him in.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

It’ll be fascinating to see where he goes in drafts, as he seems to be one of the forgotten defenders in fantasy circles. In some drafts, he may even go unselected entirely due to those who use the 2018 average as a there selection guide. In all honesty, I’d be certainly wouldn’t mind drafting him as a D4; maybe I’ll even get lucky to have him round out my on-field side at D5. It’s early in the season, but he looks like he could go in the mid-late teen rounds of a draft. Which based on scoring potential is a huge bargain!

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#38 Most Relevant: Josh Corbett

Read Time:3 Minute, 46 Second

He was one of a number of players plucked from state-based leagues. While Corbett may not be the highest fantasy scoring cash cow we get, I believe In January he does bring one thing that many other cows lack. Best 22 Job Security.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Josh Corbett
Age: 22
Club: Gold Coast Suns
Position: Forward

SuperCoach Price: $123,900
AFLFantasy Price: $170,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $157,900

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

In 2018 Josh Corbett was highly regarded as one of the VFL’s best-contested marks and averaged 7.6 marks per game before an eye injury prevented any more appearances for the year. In his 9 matches, he scored 22 goals and won the Fothergill-Round-Mitchell Medal the award presented to the most promising young talent in the VFL.

The other key weapon to his footballing arsenal is his strong aerobic capacity, this year he averaged 14 k/m per game, impressive for a guy who is 190cm tall and weights 90kg.

With former co-captain and #46 Most Relevant in this list Tom Lynch departing the club as a free agent, the Suns are desperate for some support and goal scoring power inside 50. Outside of a developing tall Peter Wright, the occasionally fit Sam Day and the craft of Aaron Young, they lack targets that provide compelling forward presence and avenues to goal, something I believe Josh will add immediately to the Suns.

Gold Coast have desperately lacked a player they can target firstly as a tall target to link up across the ground or secondly kick it to as a ‘get out of jail’ option from defensive 50. His strong overhead marking and aerobic skills could perfectly lend himself to a role not too dissimilar to what Adelaide’s Tom Lynch has done so well for many seasons if the Suns wanted to. The new rules that force a 6-6-6 starting structure at centre bounces and also the new hands in the back rule for a player likely to get the third tall certainly increase the positives in Corbett’s favour.

Like many of the state league call-ups, he’s priced at the basement in all salary cap formats of the game and is someone who I can see easily make his way into the Suns best 22 making him a prime candidate for cash generation. Something I can’t confidently say about all Special Assistance selections provided by the AFL Commission.

MY TAKE

Almost 2 weeks ago I launched the 50 Most Relevant listing with Harley Bennell. One of the key reasons Harley and now Josh make the 50 is they possess something that many cheap players lack, that’s job security. Cash Cows that have a stellar ceiling in contrast to their price is fantastic but it’s no benefit for fantasy coaches if they are in the side one week and out of the next.

In December he signed a 4-year contract extension locking himself to the club until 2022. Regardless of the clubs inability to retain quality talent long term, you don’t sign up a player for that long who isn’t apart of your current and future long-term plans. By heading to the Gold Coast Suns a side who are desperately trying to reshape their list, Corbett, now will be given every opportunity and early in the season to show he’s of AFL standard. From the games I’ve seen of him I believe he’s more than ready for a shot at the big leagues. Smash it bro!

While I don’t have a crystal ball and neither am I apart of the Gold Coast selection committee It seems very apparent to me that Josh Corbett will play a lot of footy this year for the Suns. Because of that, given his basement price and likely consistent scoring output, I think he’ll be one of the most owned and successful forward cash cows for 2019!

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DRAFT DECISIONS

He’s only relevant in salary cap formats of the game, can’t see him scoring enough to make him worth drafting. If he shows something then grab him off the waiver wire.

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#39 Most Relevant: Seb Ross

Read Time:5 Minute, 13 Second

He’s always been a consistent performer and highly relevant in drafts for many seasons. But late last year things changed, and for the better. So much so that he’s a relevant player in 2019 salary cap games.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Seb Ross
Age: 22
Club: St Kilda Saints
Position: Midfield

2018 Highest Score:
160 Vs Western Bulldogs (AFLFantasy)
160 Vs GWS Giants (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
107.3 (AFLFantasy)
102.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $558,400
AFLFantasy Price: $779,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $767,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Prior to entering into the 2018 AFL season, Seb Ross was always a well-loved selection for drafters over the past few years given his scoring consistency and durability but was never was hugely relevant in the salary cap formats. In 2016-2017 he played every game and averaged 98.4 and 102 in AFLFantasy and of those 44 games 25 of them he scored 100 or more. In SuperCoach he averaged 93.9 and 100.9 and scored 19 tons. While those are some consistent scores if you take the time to look at his 2017 numbers in detail you start to see the makings of a fantasy scoring beast.

Between rounds 2-16 he scored 11 times over the hundred, 9 of these were over 110 in AFLFantasy and 6 for SuperCoach. During this stretch of games, he only failed to score a ton in 3 matches and never dropped below 80. His average during this window was 110 in all formats.

This 2017 form was echoed in the back portion of last season where after early on in 2018 it seemed to be a ‘standard’ Ross season with some handy 120+ scores but littered between them scores that range from ’60s-’90s he got back into ton scoring mode. During the last 6 games of the year for AFLFantasy, he scored 121,105, 160, 143, 107 & 122 at an average of 126. While in SuperCoach his scores to end the year were 120,79, 158, 152, 103, 129 at an average of 123.

Apparently, I’m not on my own noticing the scoring and fantasy footy potential of Seb Roos. Longtime fantasy footy community favourite and dear friend of The Coaches Panel Rob Rainbird recently tweeted this.

The recruitment of Dan Hannebery to go along with running machine Jack Steven should only further help him slide down the oppositions pecking of midfielder to stop. There’s plenty to like about Seb Ross in 2019 and the fact that I project less than 5% of coaches in any formats, but especially in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam where his relevance is at it’s peak is highly inviting.

MY TAKE

While he is a handy SuperCoach scorer and I do think he posses some relevance, I think it’ll largely stay in drafts. However, in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam like Rainman, I think 2019 could be the year he becomes a 110+ average across the year and possibly even a captaincy option. So sorry SuperCoachers the rest of my take will squarely be focussed with the ‘other’ format in mind.

When it comes to selecting our premiums yes we want high scoring ceiling and consistent good scoring, but we also don’t want to get burned by a players basement. A fantasy basement is a player’s low scores, and while everyone is entitled to bad weeks and they do generally get balanced out by the peaks a player who shows a poor fantasy scoring floor can kill you either in head-to-head matchups or in crucial moving rounds when it comes to your rankings.

Last year Ross only had 4 scores under 80 and didn’t drop below 67. Contrast that with Dayne Zorko who last season had 8 scores below 80 and 3 under 60. Rory Sloane had almost 1/4 of last seasons games under 70 even Dayne Beams despite what many considered a phenomenal season went sub 70 in 3 matches including a 50. Yes, they all possess a fantastic ceiling, but so does Seb Ross.

Added to his high ceiling and the strong scoring basement is his AFLFantasy scoring history at Marvel Stadium. This year the Saints play 11 games there including 4 of the Saints first 6 games. In Seb’s last 12 games at the ground, he’s scored 9 tons, a low of 86 and an average of 117.75… Not Bad Seb, not bad!

In SuperCoach I’d be only looking to upgrade to him if he shows he’s lifting his basement, while in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam on current trends he looks like he’s developing along into a midfielder who is believably pushing towards the golden 110 average in 2019 and worthy of starting a squad consideration. If you don’t trust him enough to start, plonk him on the watchlist and look to upgrade him mid-season.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Based on 2018 averages he’s ranked inside the AFLFantasy/DreamTeam top 10 midfielders yet despite that I don’t see him being anybody’s M1. Players like Merrett, Crouch, Fyfe and Beams are sexier and well-known names and likely to be selected ahead of him despite that his average last year is higher. I think if you can land Seb Ross as your M2 you’ll be well on your way to building a nice midfield. He’ll be gone inside the first 3-4 rounds.

For SuperCoach drafts he’s just ranked outside the top 20 and like it AFLFantasy some bigger names are beneath him so despite his durability and relative scoring consistency I can see him being selected in a majority of drafts as an M3.

In a keeper league, good luck getting him out of the existing coaches hands, especially in AFLFantasy as his big end of year run is fresh in the memory.

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#40 Most Relevant: Angus Brayshaw

Read Time:5 Minute, 51 Second

12 months ago he was 1 concussion away from a career over, but in 2018 he was one of the best defenders.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Angus Brayshaw
Age: 22
Club: Melbourne Demons
Position: Midfield

2018 Highest Score:
166 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
130 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
105.1 (AFLFantasy)
97 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $526,900
AFLFantasy Price: $763,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $751,800

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It all finally came together for this much-beloved Demon in 2018. For 2 straight years of battling constant concussion issues, he found health and my goodness did he find plenty of the ball. After starting the season in the VFL for the first few rounds he finally won his way into the side, however, was used sparingly in the middle and like the 5 games he played in 2017 Brayshaw was used off half-back and kept out of the contest as much as possible.

Then from Round 7, everything changed for Angus Brayshaw a move that would make him one of the most owned fantasy footy defenders for the rest of 2018. Gus was released into the midfield and his numbers skyrocketed. From that point on in the year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he posted 12 scores above the hundred, 4 of them over 130 and between round 7-23 (16 matches) he averaged 112. For SuperCoach while not as strong during the same stretch, he still managed to hit the triple figure mark on 10 occasions, 7 of these above 115 and averaged 101.

Some may suggest that the reason Brayshaw scored as well as he did was due to the absence for most of the season of captain Jack Viney from the Melbourne midfield. However, during the 7 games, he played with Jack in the side during the Home & Away season it seemed to have minimal fantasy impact given Angus Brayshaw averaged 100 in SuperCoach and 113 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam.

Last year Gus got the balance right in his game averaging 27 possessions a game, but just 11 of those contested. Instead of always being the one winning the contest like in his debut season it appears he and the Dees are using him in a perfect way for his fantasy numbers to make him very relevant. That said, given his at times wayward disposal efficiency (66% last year) his fantasy footy scoring lends himself more to DreamTeam and AFLFantasy. And in 2019, while he could present value in SuperCoach I feel his relevancy is in the other formats for salary cap coaches.

With the loss of defensive status this year, his ownership numbers will plummet but like we saw last year with Jackson Macrae a loss of DPP shouldn’t mean we rule them out of the equation. If he can deliver what he did last year during that 4 month stretch for the whole season, then especially in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s got potentially 10 points of growth in his game and become a top 10 midfielder.

MY TAKE

Can hold his scoring, let alone go another gear? That’s a valid question not just for Gus but for most players that broke out and went well over and above what anyone could forecast. He isn’t ‘overpriced’, as I’ve seen some in the fantasy community suggest as he’s priced at what he delivered last year. However, at his price point especially in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he needs to go on and become a top 10 midfielder by seasonal average.

Can you confidently see him matching it in averages for the full season with the likes of Josh Kelly, Nat Fyfe, Zac Merrett, Matt Crouch, Tom Mitchell, Jack Macrae, Andrew Gaff, Stephen Coniglio, Patrick Cripps and even teammate Clayton Oliver who depending on which fantasy footy site you read seem to all be locks for 110+ averages. Do you have confidence Gus can do that in AFLFantasy? If you don’t, while yes being unique, at his price to start him you need to be otherwise he’s just one to consider as an upgrade in season.

While for those playing SuperCoach you’re choosing him over a player I wrote about a few days ago in Rory Sloane who’s less than $3,000 cheaper and more proven in terms of both ceiling and seasonal averages. Personally, I know which way I’d prefer to go. At his price, he’s not a stepping stone but a cheap, and potentially unique M8. He needs to be able to bump that average up to a minimum of 105 for the year, while that’s not getting him into the top 10, it would rank him likely in the top 15-20.

While it certainly seems well past him we do have to consider his history of head injuries and concussions. While any player is one twist, turn, knock or bump away from serious injury, based on his history fantasy coaches that do select him to need to know the possible risks that come with it. Fingers crossed it doesn’t happen but a concussion for Brayshaw may seem him miss more than just the standard week, but multiple and may even cost you a trade. Again, I hope and pray he gets through the year unscathed as I love watching him play, but more than other players his history suggests the impact of another head injury would take him longer to overcome.

It’s a hard pass for me in starting squads for SuperCoach as I have more confidence in a Rory Sloane type player, while in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s not in my starting squad but right in calculations as an upgrade target. Especially after the sides round 13 bye with matches against Fremantle, Brisbane, Carlton and the Western Bulldogs the first 4 games after the break. That’s a delicious 4 games considering last year against those sides he scored 113 (Dockers), 101 (Blues) and 133 (Bulldogs).

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Depending on the format you play will determine what round and what midfield position you select him in. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s currently ranked as a top 15 midfielder so he’ll likely go inside the first 2-3 rounds and likely be someone’s M2.

For SuperCoach drafters he’ll go much later and likely go in an M3-M4 position but still be gone somehwere inside the opening 7-9 rounds.

In a keeper league given what he delivered last year and the fact he’s still inside his early 20’s, I can’t see the existing owner giving him up, for a start-up league he’ll likely go inside the first 30 selections.

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#41 Most Relevant: Brad Crouch

Read Time:5 Minute, 0 Second

When he plays he delivers premium numbers, but will he play enough games in 2019 to make his selection worth your investment?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Brad Crouch
Age: 23
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Midfield

2017 Highest Score:
133 Vs West Coast (AFLFantasy)
138 Vs West Coast (SuperCoach)

2017 Average:
103.1 (AFLFantasy)
96.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $418,000
AFLFantasy Price: $524,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $641,700

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2018 never really got going for this Adelaide Crow. Multiple injuries hijacked Brad Crouch’s season. First, it was an abdominal strain that halted his JLT community series plans, however, once over that, a more severe groin injury (some would even say OP) occurred. While he and the club had hoped surgery would not be needed the decision was eventually made in June to get the work necessary for a full run at the 2019 season. Now while he, Crows fans and keeper league coaches were sad not to see him not play a game last year, the upside is that in 2019 we do get a guy who’s proven he can average 100 at a considerably cheaper price tag.

His 2017 season, while it did take a few weeks to get going, reminded the AFL at large of how highly talented a player he is. He averaged a career-high 28 disposals, seven tackles, six clearances and four inside ’50s. Crouch also showed off his burst off speed from stoppages gaining an average of 354 meters gained. From just 17 games he ended up ranked second at the club for tackles, third for clearances and contested possessions and fourth for total possessions.

From his 17 games, he scored over 100 in 11 of his matches, with 5 of those over 110 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and averaged 103 for the year. While in SuperCoach he posted just the 6 tons at an average of 96. On top of this, his finals series was scores of 124, 133 and 106 for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 120, 110 & 99 in SuperCoach. During the year he went on a 10-week fantasy footy scoring bender and between rounds 9-20 he averaged 110 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102.5 in SuperCoach.

When Crouch plays, he’s a proven fantasy scorer, and the upside for coaches that do choose to take the selection plunge on him means that while he’s on the field, you should be getting premium scores but for a fraction of a price.

MY TAKE

Injuries are the theme of his career; last year was the second time in his short career he’s now he’s missed full seasons, the other was 2015. To rub insult to injury his younger brother Matt Crouch was he was drafted two seasons later but has played almost 30 games more than him. Since being age-eligible Brad’s career games tally reads like a Joe Denly BBL08 batting scorecard with his annual games played 14,11,0,14,17 & 0.

The thing with his injuries which have been many and varying is that often ones that occur during the preseason. The positive for coaches this preseason is he’s currently completed everything asked of him and now upon return back to the club from Christmas leave he’ll enter into 100% of the preseason training load. Generally speaking, once he’s got up and going, he hasn’t missed playing of recent years. In 2017 once entering into the side in round 5 he missed just one game with a fractured cheekbone playing a total of 20 games including finals while 2016 he played 12 games straight including finals. Neither of these games stretches is incredibly compelling unless you’re looking for a reason not to select him.

Those that do pick Crouch need to factor in based on the previous history the high likelihood that he will not play 22 games. And while the past gives us an understanding that he and the club are yet to get his body cherry ripe the thing is that history doesn’t always repeat itself with these ‘injury prone’ players. Before the 2018 season, Devon Smith had never played a full season but didn’t miss a game in 2018. The same thing happened to Taylor Adams in 2017, after never played more than 18 games in a year he played all 22 that year. While history shows, 22 games could be unlikely it’s far from a guarantee. We’ve seen plenty of examples of players overcoming history, learning how to manage themselves to play out a full season.

I’ll likely pass in DreamTeam given his price-tag and the strategy I’m looking at. SuperCoach he’s undoubtedly on the watch-list, while in AFLFantasy he’s a likely starter for me as I seek to build my midfield with plenty of value options that could score like premiums.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

When looking at building our midfield approximately 25-30 players (depending on the format you play) come with a 100 average or higher. Likely these players (league size dependent) will all be gone within the first four if not five rounds. From that point on coaches will start looking for midfielders who’ll likely go 100+ and this is where Crouch will begin to be considered.

Every league is different, some he may slide outside the first ten rounds and be as low as an M5, while others will be extra bullish on him and pick him up as M3 and drafted inside the top 6 rounds. Given all the factors I’d be happy drafting him at M4.

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#42 Most Relevant: Jack Billings

Read Time:4 Minute, 54 Second

When he’s on fire he’s an unstoppable points-scoring machine, when he’s not you’d be better off with a rookie. So why is Jack Billings in the 50 most relevant?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jack Billings
Age: 23
Club: St Kilda
Position: Forward

2018 Highest Score:
123 Vs Brisbane (AFLFantasy)
133 Vs Brisbane (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
85.1 (AFLFantasy)
80.6 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $437,600
AFLFantasy Price: $618,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $609,300

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It was a tale of two halves for fantasy coaches that owned Jack Billings last year. Things started off OK with a 123 in AFLFantasy and 133 SuperCoach against the Lions, however, that was the only time he’d score over 90 until round 13 against Gold Coast. Between round 2-12 he averaged 69.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 62.6 in SuperCoach. During this time St Kilda coach Alan Richardson chose to use Jack as an exclusive forward. He barely ventured outside forward 50 and was given almost no midfield rotations let alone the freedom to push up the flanks. The back half was a totally different story, despite not picking up huge centre bounce numbers we started to see Billings released back into the role that made him a premium forward just 12 months earlier.

That role is of a forward who doesn’t just stay inside 50 but rather starts from then and then pushes up the ground, adds support to midfielders up the wing and his elite field kicking skills is used to cut the angles.

From round 13 until seasons end in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he scored 4 tons, didn’t dip below 75 and averaged 96.8. For SuperCoach during this 10 week period, he registered 3 tons, went under 77 just once and averaged 93.4.

These averages start to reflect the scores from 2017 across all formats. That year he scored 11 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam hundreds and averaged just shy of 95. While for SuperCoach it was 10 triple-figure scores with an average of 92. For coaches who take the punt and select Jack in there starting squads they could be getting a premium forward at the value price of 10 points below his pervious season.

MY TAKE

If you were bullish on Jack Billings last preseason then, in all honesty, you should be again in 2019. Last year if anything reconfirmed to fantasy coaches that when utilised in the right way Billings is a top 10 averaging forward in all formats. The reason I suggest you should be bullish again is because if anything he’s priced under his proven scoring potential that you banked on him to deliver last year. Priced around 10 points below last seasons average should certainly indicate you should be just as if not more invested in him.

Sometimes as a fantasy coach, we use the same logic to rule a player into contention, yet we don’t follow that same logic for another player. Sadly, confirmation bias can reign supreme in certain sections. For example one of the most hyped forwards of the preseason so far is Josh Dunkley he flew home in 2018 with an average of 115.7 in SuperCoach and 112.4 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam in his final 9 games of the year. The reason coaches are hot on selecting him is that of his end of season points and role many believe that will continue for Dunks. That may be true, and fingers crossed it is, but Billings also averaged as a premium forward during the same stretch but is not being talked up with the same potential. Both have shown that when given the preferable role they are fantasy forward premiums. My bugbear is when fantasy coaches don’t use the same logic for different players subjectively. If you don’t wanna select Billings, don’t pick him, just don’t dismiss the similarities of the end of season role vs positional risk he along with others posses.

Whether you choose to start or upgrade Jack Billings the possible risk of role change still exists, as the Saints coaching staff have shown they have no hesitation moving him. However, if you choose to upgrade to him mid-season the possible value reward that he offers doesn’t exist. Seems to me as though is that coaches who begin with him gain all the possible reward and share equally in the risk with coaches who upgrade.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

12 months ago if you wanted to own Jack Billings you’d have been likely picking him inside the top 20-25 selections overall. In 2019 you won’t be needing to draft him that early. While still inside the top 20 forwards in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 30 in SuperCoach I believe he presents potential value to jump into the top 10 averages overall on where his current average currently ranks him. For AFLFantasy/DreamTeam coaches he’ll likely end up being drafted as an F2, while in SuperCoach you might get lucky to pick him as an F3, although I’m not certain you’ll get that lucky.

In a keeper league now is the time to strike, 12 months ago he was one of the first forwards off the board and I do believe now is the time to strike, because if he bounces back like his end of season numbers suggest you’ll be paying way overs at some point in the future.

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#43 Most Relevant: Rory Sloane

Read Time:3 Minute, 42 Second

Injuries impacted Rory and the Crows 2018 season, but the bright-side of a down season is that he’s priced at his lowest average since 2011. Hello value town.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Rory Sloane
Age: 28
Club: Adelaide
Position: Midfield

2018 Highest Score:
115 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy)
141 Vs Richmond (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
89.9 (AFLFantasy)
96.1 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $524,300
AFLFantasy Price: $653,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $643,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

From a fantasy perspective, it was his worst season since 2011 when he was just 21 years old. The reason behind such a poor season was a foot injury he suffered during the Crows win against Richmond in round 2. Despite the injury, he went on to finish the game with a score of 115 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 141 SuperCoach points. He struggled his way through matches against St Kilda and Collingwood but after round 4 he wasn’t seen again until the round 15 clash against West Coast. From then on we started to see some scores that were familiar from the Crows vice-captain.

From his remaining 8 games of the season 6 times in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored 90+ including 3 scores over 106. While in SuperCoach he had just the one game where failed to score over 84 and had 4 hundred plus scores including 3 consecutive to end the year.

These numbers are much similar to what he’s previously delivered especially in the past 2 seasons. Over the 2 seasons prior he averaged 108 & 110 in SuperCoach and missed just the one match. In these 43 matches 23 of these, he scored over 100 with 15 of these being over 130. For DreamTeam/AFLFantasy in 2016-2017 Sloane averaged 106 & 107 in those seasons he reached the triple figures mark in 24 games and went over 120 in 17 of them.

He’s previously been scoring high enough to be a top 10 midfielder in terms of the total points and given that we’re paying for someone who at his price isn’t inside the top 20-30 midfielders it screams huge potential value.

MY TAKE

The big question mark on Sloane’s fantasy career is on how he handles a tag. Even last year his scores were impacted when an opposition midfielder tagged him. In his return from injury in round 15 Eagles midfielder Mark Hutchings limited his output to 14 possessions and a 68 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 89 in SuperCoach. A month later Melbourne’s James Harmes slowed him to a score of 95 in AFLFantasy and 66 for SuperCoach and Brisbane’s Jarrod Berry had a similar impact restricting him to just 16 possessions and a score of 77 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 84 in SuperCoach.

The fact is at some point that he will be tagged and it will dent his scoring for that week, however, if coaches are patient historically his low games will be balanced out by his big ceiling weeks. A few early tags like potentially in round 3 against Scott Selwood and round 4 against Ben Jacobs may be enough of a reason though to scare off a few coaches. However, matches Crows will be pencilling in to win against St Kilda, Gold Coast and Fremantle between round 5-7 may just level things back if Sloane gets off the leash.

The big difference between Sloane and others at his price point is that he’s a proven performer over a number of years and isn’t someone that offers unproven potential. He offers fantastic value based on the price investment and could very well be the 2019 version of Stephen Coniglio. By that I mean to be someone who’s averaged 100 before, offers value due to an injury impacted previous season and ends up being someone you keep as your final on-field midfielder. For mine, he’s a certain start for AFLFantasy and right in the mix for DreamTeam and SuperCoach.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Sloane presents some great value for his eventual owner in a draft, you should be able to pick him up in the place when drafting your MID 3, even the possibility of a M4 spot, but in reality he could push as high to become your MID 2 based on his potential output. He’ll still go inside the top 7-9 rounds but that’s still a few rounds later than where you’d have got him in previous seasons.

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#44 Most Relevant: Callum Mills

Read Time:5 Minute, 1 Second

The time is now for Callum Mills to establish himself as a young star of the game. The good news for him, the Swans and fantasy footy coaches is he has been presented with the opportunity.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Callum Mills
Age: 21
Club: Sydney Swans
Position: Defender

2018 Highest Score:
97 Vs GWS Giants (AFLFantasy)
105 Vs GWS Giants (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
74.2 (AFLFantasy)
79 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $428,900
AFLFantasy Price: $N/A
AFLDreamTeam Price: $530,900

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

As a junior Callum Mills was a dominant midfielder and he’d often use his big-bodied frame to win the ball and dominate games. In 2014 as a bottom age player he gathered 40 disposals in a NEAFL game for the Swans reserves team not bad for a 17-year-old. Many talent scouts in his draft year (2015) believed Mills was the complete midfielder in the draft and were it not for injuries would’ve been widely viewed as the best player in the draft pool.

In his debut season, he was one of the best cash cows for fantasy coaches, and he went on to win the Rising Star award. That year of 2016 he averaged 72 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam points from 22 games and 77 in SuperCoach, not bad for a guy that was used almost exclusively off half-back in a role he’d never played before as a junior.

What excited fantasy coaches for the long-term were his final nine games of the year. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 85.4 and didn’t score below 73 while in SuperCoach during this stretch of 9 games he averaged 87.5 and had the lowest score of 74 while hitting the hundred mark twice.

His 2017 season showed some further skill and competence development and while his averages did take a dip, one of the factors was a game he was KO’d early in the opening term by Tom Bugg and failed to register a score in SuperCoach while AFLFantasy/DreamTeam owners would’ve enjoyed his 1 point from that game. 2018 started well enough with 2 of his opening three games with 90+ scores across all formats. However, an injury where Mills broke his foot in an accident after training before round 10 ended his season.

While the stats don’t indicate a huge fantasy breakout is on the cards, the fact is that with the departure of Dan Hannebery and the need to add some new dynamics to the Swans midfield, I can see Mills being released to play as an influential midfielder this year. He’s already declared his hand is saying his wish is to move there permanently and going by the few midfield rotations he was given last year he’s shown he’s more than ready to take the mantle along with Isaac Heeney and Luke Parker in the Swans new midfield era.

MY TAKE

Here’s the thing, while he’s produced nothing of spectacular fantasy note thus far he’s done all his scoring off the halfback, in a position while very competent is not his natural environment. The Swans 2018 season while still managing to make finals started to show some midfield cracks in what had been for years the side’s strength. If Sydney is to go again and have a crack at finals in 2019 and beyond, I believe it’ll be the inclusions of young stars like Mills into the midfield that will aid this.

In my opinion, they won’t get back to the top of the tree on the back of the current midfield group, something new needs to be done and Callum Mills has fine-tuned areas of his game that needed work on for him to be the complete midfielder at AFL level. The time for Mills to enter into the Sydney side as an out and out midfielder is now. While Isaac Heeney is part of the long-term midfield of the Swans, I still believe his presence is still needed heavily inside forward 50 for the Swans to be less Lance Franklin dependant. The significant midfield change the Swans need to make is Mills into the guts.

At his price, he doesn’t offer a large amount of price growth in him, and so if you are selecting him, it’d be because you believe he can stretch his way upwards towards the top 10 averaging defenders which I think could happen if he’s released into the midfield.

Mills is very much a gut call that I’m bullish on and makes the 50 most relevant because if he does transition into a substantial gain of midfield minutes I can see a comfortable 15 points per game increase if not more, especially with growth in the tackles and disposals columns as he’d be around the ball considerably more.

Until we see it declared in the preseason by coach John Longmire of a permanent move and then played out in some of the 2 JLT matches, then fantasy coaches can have nothing more than have him placed on a watch list as a potential breakout defender.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Depending on when you hold your draft and also if the scenarios happen that I mention above do take place where he goes in the draft will be of huge variation. He’s currently ranked within the range of around the 40th defender depending on the format you play, however, his return on investment could see him be anywhere from a small boost to pushing inside the top 30 if he retains his half back role right up to a top 10 if he’s given the midfield role.

If you were to draft him in the place of a D3, you’d be content that either way, you’ll get either a consistently performing defender or a potential D2 breakout. Drafting him as a D2 means your either jumping just marginally too early on him, or you’ve gone for a strategy that sees you go harder in either the midfield or forward lines and lighter on down back.

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#45 Most Relevant: Jacob Hopper

Read Time:4 Minute, 28 Second

When Dylan Shiel departed the GWS Giants he did have one former teammate who was beaming with excitement, Jacob Hopper. Finally, a full-time midfield spot was up for grabs and I fully expect the beast to take it.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jacob Hopper
Age: 21
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield

2018 Highest Score:
112 Vs Carlton (AFLFantasy)
131 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
78.3 (AFLFantasy)
79.4 (SuperCoach

SuperCoach Price: $431,100
AFLFantasy Price: $N/A
AFLDreamTeam Price: $560,100

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

In his draft year, he was ranked by Champion Data as the top prospect and constantly would dominant games inside the contest. In his final season at TAC Cup level the midfielder averaged 23 disposals and more than half of those were won in contested situations. He recorded nearly seven clearances a game and also averaged five tackles.

In his first season of AFL managed just the 8 games but showed plenty of promise with a score of 97 AFLFantasy and 106 SuperCoach points on debut. His second season was interrupted by hamstring and finger injuries, but his return just before finals certainly was a boost for the Giants including arguably his best career game to that point in the preliminary final loss to the Tigers where he won 13 of his 27 possessions where contested and more than held his own against the eventual premiers.

His 2018 saw his development continue with an increase of his averages with a rise of 13 points in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam to 78 and 17 points in SuperCoach to 79 from the year prior. It’s only a small sample size, but during a 10-week window between mid-season he scored 3 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons and averaged 87.8 while in SuperCoach during the same stretch he averaged 90 with just the 2 centuries. Everything is trending that his fourth season at AFL level he should see him further develop and increase this scoring again and that was before one of the sides best midfielders departed the club.

During the trade window, GWS lost one of the sides premier midfielders in Dylan Shiel and while losing stars from your side hurt the Giants are far from lacking for youngsters ready to take the responsibility inside the midfield unit. These midfield rotations need to be distributed among a few players and while I can see new draftees Jye Caldwell or even Jackson Hateley getting a chance in the side it’ll be existing youngsters like Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper that take on the bulk of the work and responsibility of these rotations. More midfield rotations, more responsibility inside the contest and another preseason under his belt could see Hopper push that average right towards the triple figure range.

MY TAKE

From junior level to NEAFL and now in the AFL Jacob Hopper digs into contests, finds ways to extract the ball out and opponents are finding it increasingly more difficult to stop him. Furthermore, he’s a terrific mark overhead for his size, and also a more than capable finisher around the goal. The comparisons as a junior were to AFL stars, Patrick Dangerfield and Sydney’s Josh Kennedy are certainly not far off the mark.

The question shouldn’t be will he increase his scores and averages, but rather will the increase be enough for salary cap coaches to choose him in there starting squads? We certainly don’t lack for value in all lines, but in the midfield alone players that have already averaged as a premium like Tom Liberatore and Dan Hannebery are strong competitors for a midprice midfield spot. While Anthony Miles hasn’t done it at AFL level consistently he certainly shows promise. All three push could towards the 90’s average marker early on in the year and are cheaper than him. Given his price point in contrast to these others, Hopper needs to average over 100 for coaches that do take the punt on him to gain full benefit from his selection.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Hopper averaged over 100 in all formats of the game this year, but neither would it if he only jumped up 10-13 points and get inside the low 90’s. He’s right in the mix for me in AFLFantasy as I love to look for value options who could push out some premium scores and generate cash early, while in SuperCoach and DreamTeam he faces tough competition for a spot. Far from ruled out of selection, but at this stage, he’s a JLT watch and wait.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Given his current average, Hopper is someone that without any improvement in points would like just be bench coverage probably at best. However, as I’ve discussed I believe there will be significant points gain and as such if you want to own him in a seasonal draft you’ll need to jump a few rounds ahead of where he’s currently positioned. While based on current average he’s a likely M7, in all honesty he’s going 2 maybe 3 midfield positions ahead of that so if you want him M4 wouldn’t be out of the equation. Coaches that land him at M5 would be thrilled.

In a keeper league, I’d be seriously targetting him right now. Everything points to him being a scoring beast for a very long time.

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#46 Most Relevant: Tom Lynch

Read Time:5 Minute, 45 Second

He was arguably the biggest name to move clubs during the offseason, but will he have a big fantasy footy impact at the Tigers?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Lynch
Age: 26
Club: Richmond Tigers
Position: Forward

2018 Highest Score:
139 Vs Carlton (AFLFantasy)
180 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

2018 Average:
67.1 (AFLFantasy)
78.4 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $425,600
AFLFantasy Price: $487,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $479,900

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

2018 wasn’t a good season for the Gold Coast Suns as a whole let alone for Tom Lynch. Despite his entering into the season relatively health it became apparent after the opening 6 weeks as Gold Coast coach Stuart Dew confirmed he’d been battling a knee injury as well as managing a sore ankle. He spent the next month getting himself right, and despite playing rounds 11-14 the decisions were made to send him in for surgery on his PCL and see him miss the rest of the season. Even battling an injury he was still able to deliver a few 80+ games against the Saints and Hawks and one standout performance against Carlton where he kicked 8.1 and scored 139 AFLFantasy and 180 SuperCoach points. Yes, I know it’s Carlton, but still, that’s some ceiling. Imagine what he might be able to deliver entering into the high-quality Tigers unit.

Looking at his best fantasy season in 2016 where he averaged that 86 he managed to score above 80 on 16 occasions, 7 of those were hundreds and twice he went on some very impressive scoring runs. Between rounds 1-5 he averaged 101 with a lowest of 81. While in the final 11 games of the season he only dropped his scores below 80 once and averaged 93.5. Not bad for a guy priced in the range where your options include Steven Motlop, Rory Lobb and Shane Edwards.

For SuperCoach the numbers are even more encouraging. During his season of averaging 93, he scored north of 90 in 13 matches, 9 of those hundreds and 4 over 120. Between rounds 1-5 he averaged 105 with a lowest of 71. While in the final 11 games of the season he only dropped his scores below 82 once and averaged 101. If he gets even close to numbers like that and considering his price you could be made for choosing not to start him.

This isn’t a ‘once off either’ during 2014-2017 his lowest SuperCoach seasonal average was 83 with a peak of 93, while in AFLFantasy his lowest was 75 with a personal best of 86. So despite only one season that would have him edging into the top 10 forwards, he’s shown consistently over many seasons he can score well and given his price point he needs to be considered as he offers value of upwards of 20 points per game.

MY TAKE

There was a reason Richmond Football Club made such a big play and offered such a long-term deal for Tom Lynch. When fit and firing he’s arguably one of the (if not the) most dominant big men in the game. Before his 24th birthday, he’d already won All Australian honours, won the Suns club champion twice (both years when Ablett was still at the club) and the side’s goalkicking for 3 consecutive seasons. He’s a fierce competitor, a tireless worker always offering an option on the lead and a difficult matchup in the air for any defender. Even though he’s 199cm and 98kg he’s still in the contest even at the ground level and will more than play his role inside the Tigers offensive pressure. To top it all off his a brilliant leader and already is much loved in and around the club.

During the Tigers shock loss to the Magpies in the Preliminary Final, it was exposed what many die-hard Richmond fans had been quietly saying for years and that is that the club needed another taller avenue inside the forward 50. The inclusion of Lynch not only solves that problem but also gives Jack Riewoldt the opportunity to play higher (if needed) and also likely to get the oppositions second best key defender.

His 2018 numbers are anywhere between 15-20 points beneath his average across all formats from the years prior, and should this normally durable player get through the season unscathed I can see him not just matching those numbers 2016 & 2017, but even pushing them a fraction higher. Richmond’s game style will need to evolve with him inside 50, but I can see that being something only for the better for the side and certainly won’t impact the fantasy output of Lynch.

SuperCoach owners will be more tempted by him at his price, but he does provide value across all formats and has shown a huge ceiling before. An opening round one matchup against a young Carlton backline and on the big stage of the G all the while kicking off the 2019 season is a grand stage and one that Tom has been longing to play one. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the coaches that did start with him were immediately rewarded with a good score. Three of his last 4 scores against the Blues have been 139, 132 and 123 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 112, 161, 180 for SuperCoach.

If you’re considering a mid-range priced forward, then Lynch is someone that needs to be placed on a watchlist at the very least. From my perspective, the only reason you don’t at least consider him is that you’ve decided this far out you’ll only be running a ‘Guns and Rookies’ forward line.

I know plenty of fantasy coaches who have the rule of ‘no key position players except Buddy.’ However, I find rules like that limiting and especially in the preseason closing your mind to possibilities is incredibly dangerous. Tom Lynch was arguably the biggest offseason player move last year and this move should pay immediate dividends for both the club and the player’s fantasy output.

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DRAFT DECISIONS

Another difficult player to place in drafts. On potential, he’s certainly in the conversation of a top 10-15 forward in all formats, but I certainly wouldn’t be drafting him in that spot. Because of an injury-interrupted season, you’ll be able to get him later (on the whole) than in previous years of drafts. As always, coaches can often have a bias towards a player who players for the club they support so Tom may go a few rounds ahead of time depending on the amount of Tigers in your league.

I wouldn’t be drafting him in the opening 10 rounds, but if you were able to land Lynch in your F4 position on field that’d be a massive win given he could give returns of an F2. However, if you want him you’ll probably need to go for him as an F3.

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