#10 Most Relevant | Tom Stewart

Read Time:8 Minute, 1 Second

Over the past few seasons, one of the most reliable premium defenders has been Tom Stewart. But, after finally achieving the ultimate goal of a premiership, is it business as usual for this Cat? Or will we start to see a change in his fantasy football scoring?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Stewart
Age: 29
Club: Geelong Cats
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score:
169 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
187 Vs Fremantle (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
169 Vs Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2022)
187 Vs Fremantle | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average:
94.4 (AFLFantasy)
109.7 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $604,000
AFLFantasy Price: $836,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $857,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

He finally did it! Tom Stewart achieved the ultimate goal when he and his Geelong Cats lifted the premiership cup on the Grand Final day in 2022. The Cats were able to get there off the back of some sensational performances from this club champion. He ranked second in the league for intercepts per game and was top ten for both marks and rebound 50s. Stewart was also ranked per game inside the top twenty for kicks, meters gained and effective disposals.

During the year AFLFantasy/DreamTeam had some amazing highs and some frustrating lows. But they levelled each other out if you owned him over most of the journey. By the end of the season, his average of 94.4 had him ranked as the seventh-best defender by average and was the 30th-best for points. Good for a guy who missed five matches. He scored five tons, including two monsters over 120, a 157 & a 169. He had six additional scores between 90-99 and just five under 80, one of which was a concussion sub-game.

His SuperCoach year was even better. His average of 109.5 was the third-best among defenders, with only James Sicily and Jack Sinclair averaging more. In comparison, that average was the 20th best in the format overall. He’s got a higher average than Josh Kelly, Josh Dunkley, Luke Parker and Ollie Wines. He scored eleven tons, with five of them over 120. That includes 161, 174 & 187. Alongside this was three additional scores of 90+ and just three scores under 80, one of which was his concussion game.

When you spend big coins on premiums, you can rarely find yourself getting a slice of value, but with Tom, that might be the case. He went off early in the second term in round twelve after getting subbed out with a concussion. If you take this game out of his averages, he had about three points per game of upside in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and almost five in SuperCoach.

Over the past two seasons, Tom’s been among the best defensive premiums we could own. He’s averaged 95.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, scored sixteen tons, had three over 120 and only dropped his scoring under 80 in just seven matches. For SuperCoach, he’s averaged 108.5 over the previous 37 games. He’s scored 25 tons, nine above 120, and his scores have fallen under 80 in just four games.

Over this series, both through the articles and the podcasts, we’ve highlighted the importance of a player’s ceiling and how players with such a strong ceiling can quickly take seasons away from you. Tom has a strong ceiling but the proven capacity to do it over multiple weeks. For example, just last year in SuperCoach, he spent the first seven weeks of the season averaging 120. While in AFLFantasy/Dreamteam between rounds 3-11, his average was 114.

Stewart has one of the best ceiling scoring going around. You can see exactly what I mean when you compare his 169 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 187 in SuperCoach against some of the more prominent premium defenders’ career-best scores.

Player	SuperCoach	AFLFantasy
Jordan Dawson	158	158
Jack Sinclair	146	150
Caleb Daniel	154	135
Mitch Duncan	156	169
James Sicily	164	151

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

With Tom Stewart, the discussion point is very simple. Is he someone you want in your squad from round one/ Or will he be someone you intend to target during the season as an upgrade? Does he start this season on a hot streak, or can we jump on him as an upgrade before the streak begins? Over his career, he’s been a player that always provides us with a hot 6-10 game stretch annually.

For example, in 2022, there was even an eight-game stretch between rounds 3-11, wherein AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 114 and had his scoring range between 93-169. However, in SuperCoach, over the first ten games, he went at an average of 120, and that run included a 74, his second-lowest score of the year. So if he starts this year the way he scored in that patch, it could be a season-winning selection.

We’ve got two significant fixture changes for 2023. The first is an additional round; the year is now made up of 24. The other is that the bye rounds are split over four, not three weeks. What’s significant about this is that DreamTeam and SuperCoach have decided to treat all four weeks of byes as the best ’18’ scorers, and round thirteen has just the Gold Coast Suns and Geelong Cats with the week off.

Finding 18 players to field in round 13 will be simple. The others can be challenging. Being able to bank a premium defender like Stewart could become extremely valuable. He becomes the constant theme in your backline during the other three bye rounds as you make upgrades and team benchings. And it’s not just selecting a bye runner; it’s using the byes as potentially a deal breaker if you can’t split the difference between Stewart and another premium. As a matter of reference, Geelong plays Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Melbourne during those three weeks. Using 2022 data trends, two of those are phenomenal matchups for intercepting defenders and defenders.

One of the primary attractions behind starting Stewart is his inbuilt value alongside a relatively friendly fixture to the premiers. Over the first six weeks, they play Magpies (MCG), Blues (MCG), Suns (Metricon), Hawks (MCG), Eagles (Adelaide Oval) & Swans (GMHBA). Speaking of fixtures, many have noted that Tom’s scoring last year was supreme. Last year in the games he played at GHMBA Stadium, he averaged 124.8 in SuperCoach and 107.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. At all other venues, he averaged 95.3 for SuperCoach and 87.1. in AFLFantasy. Six of his last ten games this year are at GMHBA, and five of his last seven are there.

And while the data looks amazing, there are a few ‘holes’ to note in one of those games. One game at Marvel stadium includes his concussion game. The other, but least important, was that he got tagged against the Saints by Mitch Owens. Of course, tags can happen at any venue against any opponent, but those two games heavily throw the data trend out.

One of the most compelling reasons to fade on starting Stewart, especially in the more limited trade formats of DreamTeam and SuperCoach, is the probability of the Cats resting their star defender. In 2022, Geelong timed their run at the finals beautifully. They ensured that the whole squad was playing their best football in September. One of the ways they did that was by managing their older players and eliminating the risk of injury niggles to ensure they were primed for finals. That’s common for teams in the premiership window to do. However, the challenge alongside this is Geelong are notoriously hard to get a read on when or if these might occur. It’s now a question of who, not if the Cats have a late change. I’m convinced we’ll see multiple games where Stewart & other older Cats are managed, and for the most part, outside of the blockbuster games, you won’t predict when they might come.

So is Stewart someone you must start? Or do you want to grab him on the cheap during the season? The answer is both strategies are viable. We’re not discussing speculative options in the fifty most relevant in the top ten. Stewart will be among the best defenders in 2023, and most coaches will want him on their sides by the time the season ends.

DRAFT DECISION

Some players draft range is stable across all formats, while others see some ranking and range differential. With Tom Stewart, the selection as a D1 won’t change, but his draft range will have a few rounds differential. In SuperCoach, I expect him to head off draft boards in the middle to the late second round. For AFLFantasy, he’ll likely start getting selected from the third into the top of the fourth.

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#11 Most Relevant | Rory Laird

Read Time:7 Minute, 40 Second

A single player can rarely define the success of a fantasy football season. But if you owned or didn’t own Rory Laird in 2022, then it’s safe to say he was a difference-maker in the outcome of your season. Will he be that again in 2023?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Rory Laird
Age: 29
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score:
163 Vs Collingwood (AFLFantasy)
156 Vs North Melbourne (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
163 Vs Collingwood | AFLFantasy (2022)
185 Vs Collingwood | SuperCoach (2020)

2022 Average:
120.3 (AFLFantasy)
127.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $703,900
AFLFantasy Price: $1,070,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $1,092,500

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

As strong as the season was for Rory Laird overall, it didn’t start well. The Adelaide midfielder suffered a broken hand in a pre-season game against Port Adelaide and missed the opening few rounds of the 2023 season. However, once he returned to play in round three, everything he touched turned gold from that point on. He ranked first in the league for disposals, effective disposals and handballs per game. Alongside this, he ranks second for tackles per game and top ten for clearances, stoppages, score involvements, uncontested possessions, and almost every other category that champion data measure.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored sixteen tons; twelve were above 120, five were above 130, and he posted his career-high score of 163. Alongside this was that his scoring didn’t dip below 90 all year. His average of 120.35 makes him the top-scoring player in these formats. Despite missing two games, he still ranked fifth for total points. And he ended the year less than 70 points away from overall top scorer Andrew Brayshaw. Don’t gloss over this. That ceiling and consistency so were so supreme to everyone else.

For SuperCoach, the season was equally as exceptional. His average of 127.85 consisted of 18 tons, and 77% of those he translated into scores of 120 or higher. He had ten scores over 130 and seven over 140. His worst score of the year was 93, which was his comeback game from injury. Like in AFLFantasy, Laird is the player with the highest seasonal average. Only Callum Mills, Touk Miller, Clayton Oliver and Lachie Neale scored more. However, he’s under 150 short of taking the top-scoring mantle from Neale.

Last season there was a stretch in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam between rounds 11-21 where he averaged 132. His lowest score in that ten games was 119. While over in SuperCoach, his hot streak of back-to-back tons was even longer. Over seventeen weeks between rounds 2021, his scoring dip below 105 on his way to averaging 131.4. But this volume and frequency of tons go well beyond just 2022.

During the 2021 season, he scored eighteen tons from 22 games played, including 11 consecutive to end the year. Of these tons, six were above 120, and two monsters of 140+. That’s scoring a ton in 81% of games last year. To go with his consistency of tons is his high-scoring basement. Just once all year did his scoring fall beneath 90. He ranked seventh for total averages and points scored in the competition for these formats.

His scoring was similarly dominant in SuperCoach with 18 tons, 11 consecutive to wind up the year and 10 of those tons 120 or higher, including a 144, 149 and a seasonal high 179. Like in AFLFantasy, he had just one score below 90 all season. He ranked 10th overall for total points, and averages ranked 11th.

It was back in mid-2020 that Laird moved from the halfback flank and became a permanent centre-bounce midfielder. In the 51 games in his role, he’s averaged a ton in 78% of AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 84% of SuperCoach games. But it’s not just the frequency of triple digits scores. The volume of big scores has seen him dominate for two and 1/2 seasons. Visually here’s what the past 51 games look like in summary.

What do you want from your premiums? Let’s run a quick dream checklist to see if Rory hits the criteria.

Durable
High Scoring Ceiling
High Scoring FFloor
Low Scoring volatility
Never tagged
Multiple scoring categories and avenues
Reliable with a C or VC armband every week

The answer to all of these regarding Rory Laird is yes! He is the most trustworthy premium midfielder of the past 50 games and looks set to maintain the position heading into 2023.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Moment of truth, at some stage during 2023, we all plan to own Rory Laird. His final ten games post-bye from last year put the rubber stamp on that. With him, most teams will feel complete but nervous about battling against him every week. So the question comes down to this, will you start with Rory? Or are you planning to trade with him?

So often, we make a big deal about the value and a player’s price in our starting squads. And when we do that to an extreme, we start looking only to start players that are ‘value’ and potentially underpriced. You’re not picking him for value at the price tag of obtaining Laird. You’re selecting him for his points delivery. The price is what he is, so he’s not expensive or overpriced; it’s what he is! So, yes, there will likely be a time in the season he’s cheaper. But my question to you is twofold.

One, can you secure him at the lowest price point? Unless you’re predicting a massive scoring drop, it will be little you save, and you’ll need to capitalise early. Second, even if you can generate the funds to trade into him, will the volume of cash and trades to get up towards him be worth it?

Ultimately, starting with Laird or any high-end premium, it’s all about the combination of players rather than just looking at a straight one-for-one. For example, which combination do you like more? Rory Laird at M1 and Darcy Cameron at R2. Or Tim English at R1 and Josh Kelly at M2? Neither is wrong, and both are possible combinations. But it’s where you feel most confident and comfortable getting the best bang for your buck.

One last thing on price because the tag only matters in two scenarios. When your selling and when your buying. How expensive he is or what value he has no relevance to owners. Only those looking to jump on.

In DreamTeam & SuperCoach, the game is evolving and running, and spinning value is increasingly more important. But still, at its foundation, success in those games has come down to making sure you own the best players for the longest time. It’s why in DT & SC if you believe Laird is an elite premium, he needs to be considered a starting squad candidate.

AFLFantasy is different; the weekly price changes mean you must treat this format differently. The history of recent winners would tell you to spend less on midfield premiums like this. But history is only a guide, not a mandate. The question you need to ask is this. What do you believe he will average over the first six weeks of the season? Adelaide plays GWS, Richmond, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Carlton & Hawthorn. Does he go 120-125? If so, there’s a place where he’s ripe for you to start? If he’s 110 or below, then clearly, you’ll be backing in another player as your VC/C option early and hoping to trade into Laird quickly.

Whether you start him or not is different from what makes him relevant in the preseason. He’s relevant because of what he can and probably will do again in 2023. So, when will this relevant midfielder be on your side?

DRAFT DECISION

Rory Laird will be the first defender off the draft boards in 2023. In some leagues, he’ll go as the first pick overall. While others will opt for one of the top-end forward premiums. Either way, if you don’t have one of the first picks of the draft, safe to say you’ll not own him this year.

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#12 Most Relevant | Rowan Marshall

Read Time:7 Minute, 57 Second

Nobody has questioned the fantasy potential of Rowan Marshall. Since his breakout season in 2019, we’ve known about his potential to be one of the best-scoring rucks in fantasy football. However, with the retirement of Paddy Ryder, the need and the opportunity is for Marshall to elevate himself to fulfil his potential.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Rowan Marshall
Age: 27
Club: St Kilda Saints
Position: Ruck

2022 Highest Score:
163 Vs Hawthorn (AFLFantasy)
173 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
163 Vs Hawthorn | AFLFantasy (2022)
173 Vs Hawthorn | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average:
91.3 (AFLFantasy)
92 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $506,600
AFLFantasy Price: $808,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $828,700

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It happens in fantasy football every year where the metaphoric ‘red sea’ parts and coaches are given an absolute selection gift. While it is the early Crow, Rowan Marshall is one of the less controversial and easier selection decisions. The catalyst was the retirement of Paddy Ryder. At his best, Ryder was one of the best tap ruckmen in the game and added a strong dynamic to the St Kilda lineup. However, the result was that he and Marshall often split ruck responsibilities and cap each other’s fantasy output.

Even with a ruck share, we still saw glimpses of his fantasy-scoring ability of Rowan. Last year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 91.2 across the season. Over the year, he scored nine tons, and his top two were 131 & 163. Alongside this was seven scores under 80. While for SuperCoach, his average of 92 consisted of five tons, 113, 124, 125, 156 & his career-high 173. To go with these five tons is eight scores under 80.

Overall that statistic line is fine. But it’s not the true story. The retirement of his good friend Patrick Ryder has opened up the opportunity again for him to be the lead ruckman and no longer be second fiddle. Thankfully, we’ve got some encouraging data splits that inform us of a potential fantasy football premium output. Last year the combination of Ryder/Marshall was used in eleven games. He averaged 78.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 75.8 for SuperCoach. However, Marshall played in ten matches with Paddy, and in those games, he averaged 105.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 109.8 for SuperCoach. A differential of 26.8 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 34 in SuperCoach.

This isn’t just a ten-game data stretch; that’s designed to use data to create confirmation bias. This trend is seen across the 2021 season also. In the seven games Marshall & Ryder played together, Rowan averaged 77.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 89.4 in SuperCoach. However, in the six he played solo, the scoring average for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam spiked up to 103.7 and 109.3 in SuperCoach. That’s a differential of 26 points per game in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 19.9 in SuperCoach.
The scoring of Marshall playing as the #1 ruck isn’t just something that we’ve seen spurts of for a few games and nothing more. In 2019, Marshall was forced to play through the ruck, and we saw some exceptional scoring. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 99, scoring twelve tons with three over 120. Then, he went on a seven-week stretch of consecutive hundreds, averaging 114. For SuperCoach, he averaged 110, featuring fourteen tons and a nine-week run where he averaged 129.

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MY TAKE

Watching coaches flip-flop on Rowan Marshall in the offseason was exceptionally fun to spectate. One minute they’re excited to start him due to the absence of Paddy Ryder. The next minute, they’re fading on starting him due to a long-term injury to Max King. Honestly, it’s one of the most bizarre narratives developed in the offseason. The only similarity between Max’s injury and Rowan himself is that they share the same team. However, they do not, under any circumstance, have any connection to the role that Marshall will play in 2023.

Assuming that the absence of the Saints landmark key position player means Marshall must play as a primary forward shows a general lack of understanding about the Saints list. Beyond Rowan, the only pure ruckman they have on the list is developing Max Heath. If push came to shove and he had to play at the elite level, I’m sure he could, but he’s not pushing Rowan out. Next in line is a few part-timers, Tom Campbell and Jack Hayes. The latter should be the clubs leading relief ruck candidate after overcoming his ACL injury in 2022. Lastly, it’s the new draftee Isaac Keeler. He’s the club’s last-line option in the ruck and will take significant time to develop to be ready for play at the AFL level. Rowan is a lock to be the club’s lead ruck and take the primary share in the #1 role. Others will play a relieving role, but that will be a small percentage clip and not significant enough to rule Marshall out of fantasy football relevance. He is and will be the saints #1 ruckman.

This narrative was squashed by Rowan himself with an interview with channel seven reporter Mitch Cleary. He clearly states within it that he will be the Saints leading ruckman and, more importantly, that he’s stronger and healthier than ever.

Rowan Marshall is embracing the burden of being St Kilda’s number one ruckman. Farewelling his veteran sidekick, Marshall is in career best shape and delivered an insight into his new coach’s hard edge. https://t.co/5zYfOfFT4D @cleary_mitch #7AFL #7NEWS pic.twitter.com/mqGDs72fxq
— 7NEWS Melbourne (@7NewsMelbourne) January 28, 2023

Another core reason behind his relevance in 2023 is that the long-heralded kings of the ruck division have seen a significant change. Over many years, it was Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn’s domain, and everyone else wasn’t worth considering. But over the past few years, the 115-120+ averages have started to drift south, and the next generation no longer has to ascend as high. Alongside that, players like Gawn, Grundy & Sean Darcy have all got some serious internal competition for how they’ll structure and be used as the #1 midfielder. We can all speculate, but ultimately, outside the clubs, we are guessing. Beyond Tim English, he has the easiest and most clear pathway to pushing the upper end of scoring of all rucks in 2023.

And lastly, it’s the inbuilt value. Earlier in the article, I highlighted the proven scoring pedigree of Rowan when he’d been allowed to play as the #1 ruck. That’s not just a historical piece from 2019, but backed up for the games in 2021 & 2022 when he was allowed to play in this space. He presents anywhere from ten to twenty points per game of value.

Twelve months ago, I was very public in my stance that I didn’t believe a ‘set & forget’ strategy was the right one. That turned out to be right, as value options like Braydon Preuss & Jarrod Witts across formats were highly valuable. We do have some value options to consider at R2. In 2023, the combination of Marshall alongside English is a viable starting ruck combination. Yes, a set & forget strat is viable this year.

Marshall can also provide you value and low risk with him at R1 and run some value prospects at R2. Earlier in the preseason, we discussed Darcy Cameron, while on this article’s corresponding podcast, Jordox highlighted Scott Lycett as a viable prospect.

So whether he’s R1, R2 or just someone you are watching as an upgrade target Rowan looks destined to determine the direction of coaches fantasy football seasons. The fact that he’s in 40% of DreamTeam, 42% of SuperCoach & 36% of AFLFantasy teams tells you he will be relevant in 2023.

DRAFT DECISION

Tim English will be the first ruck taken on the draft day across formats. In comparison, Rowan Marshall will be taken somewhere in the first handful. For some, it’ll be #2, while others will back in the ‘name’ appeal of Brodie Grundy or a Max Gawn ahead of him.

Marshall isn’t a first-round selection and should only be selected there if your league has some variables that spike the relevance of rucks. I’d be open to considering him in the fourth round, but based on how I like to draft, he’s likely someone I’ll not end up drafting at the range of his average draft position.

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#13 Most Relevant | Jordan Dawson

Read Time:7 Minute, 45 Second

Jordan Dawson couldn’t have done much more for his new side, the Adelaide Crows, in 2022. He elevated his game and fantasy output to the elite level. The fantasy community is keen to jump on one of the best premium options in the backline for this coming season.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jordan Dawson
Age: 25
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score:
129 Vs North Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
145 Vs North Melbourne (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
158 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2021)
158 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2021)

2022 Average:
100.8 (AFLFantasy)
109.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $603,100
AFLFantasy Price: $893,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $914,800

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Could you have had a better first year at a brand-new club? OK, sure, winning a premiership. But from an individual perspective, Jordan Dawson had one of the most complete seasons possible. He was top ten in the league for meters gained, rebound 50s and kicks per game. And ranked inside the top 20 for marks. He even won his team a match with his after the siren goal against Port Adelaide!

From an AFLFanrtasy/DreamTeam perspective, he was one of the best selections you could’ve made during the season, both as an upgrade target or as an option for your starting squad. His average of 100.7 consisted of twelve tons, with 120, 128, 129 & 129 being his four highest scores across the season. Alongside these tons was an additional four scores between 93-99. To round it out, he had just three scores under 80 all year and just one under 75. He’s now ranked third among defenders for both total points and average.

His SuperCoach season was even stronger. On thirteen occasions, he scored 100 or more, with eight of them above 120. Three were between 130-135, while his three biggest scores of the season were 140, 144 & 145. Alongside these triple digits, scores were a further six games between 90-99. Meaning he scored 90 or above in 86% of games last year. In the year’s final game, he posted his only score under 80 all year, a lowly 74. His season now ranks him as the fourth top scorer by points and fifth for averages amongst all defenders. But he’s not just a good defensive scorer; he’s also ranked 14th across SuperCoach for total points. He scored more than Josh Dunkley and was only 50 points shy of breaking into the top ten total points scorers. What a year!

The signs of his fantasy relevance were in his final season as a Swan in 2021. From an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam perspective that year, he posted five tons, two over 120, including a final round of 158 and seven scores under 80. He ended the season ranked 12th for defenders by averages and seventh for total points. While in SuperCoach, he delivered nine tons, four of them over 120, including 141, 145 & 158. To go with this high ceiling is a relatively higher-scoring floor. Last year he had just four scores beneath 80.
It’s undoubtedly a strong season for Dawson, but his scoring improved as the season went on. After the bye rounds, Dawson picked up the opportunity to push higher up the ground and play up through the wings. As a result, his average ballooned. In the first thirteen games of the year, he averaged 80.8 in AFLFantasty/DreamTeam. But post-bye, in his final nine games, he averaged 100. While In SuperCoach, he averaged 92 pre-bye and 114 post-bye.
When you consider the defenders across SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam, there are few players across the formats that can say they are elite. But Jordan is one of those. He’s one of just three current eligible defenders who averaged 100+ across the game formats. His skills and scoring cross the game platforms, and as an owner, you do rest easy knowing he’s on your side and not someone you have to come up against. Sometimes it’s best to start players like this in your team. It can certainly take some of the stress out of your starting sides.

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

The scoring ceiling in fantasy football is vital. Players that possess it can win you matchups, rounds, championships and overall rankings. You need players in your SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam sides that possess the ceiling that can break past the good sides and elevate yourself above the pack. Equally as important is a player’s scoring consistency. No point being able to put up a 120+ when the weeks on either side of it are in the 60-70 range. It’s rollercoaster players like that, which become frustrating to own. Whenever you find someone in fantasy that boasts both ceiling scoring and consistency of a strong scoring floor, they become a gold mine!

Jordan Dawson is one such defender that has that. Four scores last year over 120 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and eight over that in SuperCoach highlight that ceiling. But Jordan isn’t just a ceiling player; he’s also a consistent player. Only three times in SuperCoach dip under 90, his lowest score for the season was 74. While in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he had just three scores under 80 all year and just one under 75. So again, this is a phenomenal ability from one player to deliver the two key elements you need from your premiums: consistency and ceiling.

In the offseason, murmurings and changes to teams playing styles and positions start to seep out. From Adelaide, the talk is that Wayne Milera is returning to full fitness and returning to his role across the half-back line. It was here that Milera’s speed, skills and evasiveness were on full display. But does Wayne’s move into defence hurt Dawson’s scoring output? Ultimately, we’ll determine how it will work in the preseason games over the coming weeks. But at a first reflection, I’m not too concerned. They are different types of weapons in the Crows backline.

Some have suggested that Dawson could be deployed up on the wing like he was used in the backhaul;f of his 2021 season at Sydney. From a fantasy perspective, that seemed to work ok, with him averaging 100+ across the formats. The best position for Jordan is across the backline. If Crows can isolate him into space in the backline, he will generate some serious scoring. His ability to read the ball in flight to intercept is seen here, as well as his beautiful kick to set up the play.

Watching the Adelaide Crows play in 2022, you start understanding the club’s DNA and game style. It’s built on pressure, contested footy and competitiveness. But they’ve identified they need to sit alongside these players with elite skills to help execute when they win the footy. It’s one of the reasons they went so hard after Jordan Dawson almost 18 months ago, while last offseason, they chased and secured Izak Rankine.

The Crows don’t just love but need the ball in his hands. His elite kick opens up the wings and the forward line and creates opportunities to attack and relieve pressure on the defensive group. So you shouldn’t be surprised if the tag comes to him a few times throughout the season. Thankfully, his combination of intercept marking, taking kick-ins, combined with his willingness to tackle will many any ‘tag’ affected scores won’t be a disaster for his owners.

You’ll want Jordan Dawson on your side sometime during the season. Barring an injury or some sensationally big DPP inclusion mid-season, I don’t see a world that has him missing from the top five defenders by average and points across the year. So he’s either a starting squad option, or you’ll be putting in place a plan to bring him into your side during the 2023 season.

DRAFT DECISION

As we get to the upper areas of the fifty most relevant, we’re hitting the players that will be regularly flying off draft boards early on your draft day. Jordan Dawson will easily be someone’s D1 and will probably start flying off SuperCoach drafts as a mid-second round into an early third-round selection. It wouldn’t shock me either in AFLFantasy formats if he went in a similar space, but we’ll likely see him picked regularly between selections 20-30 overall.

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#14 Most Relevant | Andrew Brayshaw

Read Time:7 Minute, 50 Second

The breakout to the elite scoring tier for Andrew Brayshaw was always a question of when not if. And in 2022, he answered it for us. Now at 23 and stepping into his prime, Brayshaw is primed to deliver yet another strong fantasy AFL season.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Andrew Brayshaw
Age: 23
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score:
181 Vs St Kilda (AFLFantasy)
189 Vs St Kilda (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
181 Vs St Kilda | AFLFantasy (2022)
190 Vs Richmond | SuperCoach (2021)

2022 Average:
112.4 (AFLFantasy)
111.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $615,600
AFLFantasy Price: $995,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $1,020,000

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

That was some season from Andrew Brayshaw. He elevated himself from a good AFL midfielder to the upper elite echelon. He averaged career-high disposals while finishing fifth in the AFL for uncontested possessions, 8th for disposals, 10th for effective disposals and 10th for tackles. To round out this phenomenal season, he was awarded selection in the All-Australian team, won the club’s best & fairest and snagged the AFL PA’s MVP award.

His AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season was an absolute banger. He scored thirteen tons across the season; nine went over 120, and six were above 130. It featured 141, 144 & 181 as his three highest scores. Alongside this high volume and frequency of tons was a further four scores between 90-99, and all year his scoring dipped below 80 in just two matches. By the conclusion of the 2022 season, he had the third-highest average going at 112.3 and was ranked number one for points! A superb achievement.

Over in SuperCoach, he also scored thirteen tons over the seasons, eight of which were above 120. In six of those, he went 130+, and he gave us his second-highest-ever SuperCoach score in round two against the Saints by scoring 189. Alongside these thirteen tons were six additional scores between 93-96. That’s 86% of his game last year, where he scored 93 or higher! Last year he had just two scores below 80, with his lowest a 77. By the end of the year, his average of 111.8 has him ranked thirteenth by average across the game, and tenth for points

2022 isn’t just an isolated one good season, he’s been building his scoring over the past three seasons, and in 2021 he gave you his first season where he averaged 100+ across all formats. During the 2021 season, he scored thirteen AFLFantasy/DreamTeam tons; five were above 120 and two higher than 135, including his best of 156. In addition, he had three more scores between 90-99. That’s 80% of his 90 or above scores last year. From a scoring basement, he had three scores under 70. All of these were when he copped a heavy tag. Closing out the season, he averaged 104.2

For SuperCoach, he scored twelve tons, with a lowest of 109 and a top score of 190. He had seven tons over 120, four additional 90-99 and just three scores beneath 70. His 107 is ranked nineteenth for all midfielders

When a guy comes off the back of a 110+ average across the formats, it’s hard to expect more growth; if anything, you’re hoping they can back it up. But with Brayshaw, the belief of an increase from 111 in SuperCoach and 112 in AFLFantasy last year does have merit. When you look at his scoring trend over 2020-2022 and then consider how he scores, the upside is potentially huge!

Last year he had just eight games where he had 30+ possessions. He had just two games with more than six marks and seven with eight or more marks. The crazy thing is when he puts it together, you get those monster ceiling games, as you saw against St Kilda in round two, where he scored over 180 across the formats. If he can do that a few times a year, he’ll elevate himself to the tiers of scoring that only Tom Mitchell, Dane Swan and Tom Rockliff have been able to tread across formats.

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MY TAKE

You don’t end up as the top-scoring prospect in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and top ten in SuperCoach and not become someone you consider seriously in your starting squad. If you haven’t even looked at starting with Andrew Brayshaw, you’re missing a trick. Yes, he’s expensive, but that’s because he’s scored at this level before! He’s still got a little bit of natural growth in him. In the first thirteen games of the season, he averaged 118 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 114.6 in SuperCoach; that’s 3-5 points per game of upside.

When you drill into the scoring numbers of Brayshaw, there is an interesting little trend. Over his AFLFantasy/DreamTeam career, he hasn’t scored more than three consecutive tons. While in SuperCoach, he has yet to do more than three in a row over his past two seasons. The thing about a stats line like this is that you can view it in two lights. Firstly, for him to still go at such a high-scoring clip and do it with a low consecutive nature of tons is only a good thing. Remember that history isn’t always an indicator of the future. Maybe the big run of tons is coming this year. The flip side is that without historical data of being runs of tons, he’ll always feel like he gives you a window of cheaper availability. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

Without question, the tag is coming to Brayshaw. We saw that happen in numerous games across 2022. And it’ll happen again in 2023. What’s pleasing for his current & future owners is he’s already shown signs of using his workrate and other scoring avenues to ensure his basement scores aren’t disasters. Whenever a player is tagged, we see a scoring blip, but with Andrew, these have yet to be in the 50s or 60s. Rather, the high 70s is more than tolerable when you know the next week they’ve got the ceiling capacity to go 170! Currently, at training, he’s getting tagged in every match simulation by James Aish. This isn’t just for Andrew’s benefit, as Aish did a few negating roles last year and seems destined to do it again. It’s good training and learning for James.

If you’re starting with Andrew, you’re comfortable placing the vice-captaincy or captaincy on him early in the year. If your not, he’s then just an upgrade target. He must be viewed as such because you can only afford a small number of options in his price range in your starting squad. And if they’re not VC/C candidates, why are you spending so much coin?

The positive news for coaches is that Brayshaw and Fremantle have a remarkable early fixture. They play Saints (away), North (home), Eagles (home), Crows (away), Suns (home) and lastly, Dogs (home). That’s as good a run as coaches could expect. It is even more exciting because St Kilda is one of Brayshaw’s favourite teams to score against. In his last three matches against them, he’s averaged 142.6 in AFLFantasty/DreamTeam and 144.3 in SuperCoach!

One thing to keep in mind, though, is the tag. Late last year, Marcus Windhager showed his ability to play the role well, and under Ross Lyon at both St Kilda & Fremantle, he’s shown a desire to use a tagger.

Even if you don’t start with Brayshaw, you’ll keep a close eye on him, especially after his round 12 byes. He could be the perfect player to run through the following three weeks of multi-byes. He’ll play Richmond, GWS & Essendon during that time as a reference point. I’m not planning on starting him, but I want to have him in my team coming out of the byes.

DRAFT DECISION

Where Andrew Brayshaw goes off draft boards will be based on two variables on draft day, the format you use & how desperate the community is to lock away an F1. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he’s in the mix to be selected in the first round and will only drift a little beyond the first few selections of round two, if at all. While in SuperCoach, he’s an M2 selection and will likely go in the late second – early third portion of the draft.

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#15 Most Relevant | Conor McKenna

Read Time:5 Minute, 27 Second

The Brisbane Lions couldn’t have had a better offseason with the quality of players they added to their squad. One of the more unheralded but potentially most valuable is the recruitment of former Essendon defender Connor McKenna. The Irishman isn’t just a key for the Lions; he has huge relevance for fantasy coaches in 2023.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Connor McKenna
Age: 26
Club: Brisbane Lions
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score:
Did Not Play

Career Highest Score:
116 Vs Collingwood | AFLFantasy (2019)
141 Vs Collingwood | SuperCoach (2019)

2022 Average:
Did Not Play

SuperCoach Price: $167,500
AFLFantasy Price: $373,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $235,300

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For some seeing Conor McKenna in the fifty most relevant, let alone this high, might be startling. But it’s the perfect reminder that this series is about players relevance, not about scoring alone. What McKenna could become is one of the most vital selections in your starting squad. It’s been a few seasons since we’ve seen him at the AFL level after retiring and moving back to Ireland in 2020. McKenna is a line-breaking defender who can burn away from any opponent when given the opportunity.

In 2019 he had his best season where he had a career-high record of disposals, led the AFL for bounces and had a career-high SuperCoach and AFLFantasy season. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 70.2, which consisted of a top score of 116 and eight additional scores over 75. His average of 79.8 in SuperCoach featured four tons, three above 110 and a career-high 141 against the Magpies. He had seven further scores over 75, including a 99.

Over his career, he’s closer to a mid-’60s in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and high 60’s in SuperCoach. Those scores and averages might not be appetising, but when you consider the price point were are paying for him, It’s a play with some handy upside. He’s priced at an average point of 42 in AFLFantasy, in the high 30’s in DreamTeam and mid-low 30s in SuperCoach. So based on his price point against his proven scoring potential, there are approximately 30 points per game of value built into him.

In November, Conor chose Brisbane ahead of St Kilda, Port Adelaide and a return back to Essendon. The primary question you have to ask yourself is, why? Primarily it’s a premiership run. He wanted to have a chance at tasting ultimate AFL success, and the Lions, he believed, gave him the best opportunity to do so.

Conor hasn’t relocated over 15,000km from Ireland back to Australia to play in the secondary levels through the VFL. He’s back to play AFL, and while nothing is a certainty, I cannot fathom a world where Conor didn’t pick Brisbane without the club ensuring he has a spot inside that is his to lose.

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MY TAKE

So where does Conor McKenna fit into the Brisbane Lions structure and plans? Ultimately the practice and preseason trial games will give us the greatest understanding. But from early reports, he’s getting his chance as a rebounder out of the back six. And while the Lions don’t lack speed in the backline with Kiddy Coleman, Conor does add some greater defensive power for the smalls. If anything I think Conor might just have gone past him.

To achieve ultimate success and win a format overall will ultimately be done through successful trading during the season. You win it all by nailing the upgrades and downgrade movements across the season. While success is done through trading, you can set the platform nicely with your starting side.ddddd

Getting the balance right in your starting squad is always hard. That’s no different to any season, but each season does have different nuances. Heading into the 2023 season, one of the most intriguing decisions on how to structure sides this year is what you do at D5. With coaches desperate to run deep in the forward lines and unwilling to go skinny in the midfield, the backline is partly responsible for some pain in our structures.

Throw in that early preseason doesn’t appear to be too many candidates for backline cash cows. Beyond Darcy Wilmont, Josh Weddle, Campbell Chesser and Reuben Ginbey, I’ve seen few being discussed outside of club land for getting a game early.

Enter Conor McKenna. What the selection of Conor at D5 provides in SuperCoach & DreamTeam is confidence that your structure can hold up for the first few rounds. Unlike others in this price point, he provides us with an element of proven scoring alongside seemingly solid job security. Like any player sub $200k, his job is just to make cash, and it’s impossible to generate it when your not playing. McKenna has a history of regular scores of 80+ and even the capacity to get tons. If he can do that early on in the season, he’ll be a hero in the fantasy community.

He is less relevant in AFLFantasy because his price point is just about $400,000. But he’s not irrelevant. Coaches might be forced to restructure their side if some of those names mentioned above don’t get opportunities at round one. A popular structure amongst teams is having two players sub $300k on the field in the backline. Should some of these not eventuate, it’s pretty close to reaching up to McKenna.

DRAFT DECISION

The relevance of Conor McKenna in 2023 is almost exclusively in classic formats and not really in drafts. However, depending on your draft, a late flyer as a final selection could be worth a punt.

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#16 Most Relevant | Connor Rozee

Read Time:6 Minute, 48 Second

One of the most remarkable in-season fantasy football turnarounds came from Connor Rozee. From being in the dog house to winning the club’s best & fairest, the move into the midfield was sensational for both his confidence and his fantasy football output. The benefit of the slow scoring start is we have a forward premium with some inbuilt value. Are you on board in 2023?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Connor Rozee
Age: 23
Club: Port Adelaide Power
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score:
144 Vs Adelaide (AFLFantasy)
162 Vs Adelaide (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
144 Vs Adelaide | AFLFantasy (2022)
162 Vs Adelaide | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average:
88.1 (AFLFantasy)
93.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $513,800
AFLFantasy Price: $780,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $799,700

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It could have been a better start for Port Adelaide or Connor Rozee. Over the opening month, they had yet to win a game, and many called for Port to drop Connor as he struggled to impact the games by playing deep inside the Power forward lines. However, by the end of the season, he’d have turned it around that he was named in the 2022 All-Australian squad, won the club B&F and picked up 14 Brownlow Medal votes.

The club significantly changed from round five by throwing Rozee into the midfield. The move happened more out of necessity, with Ollie Wines missing the clash against the Carlton. But from then on, he was sensational. His speed, class and poise were on full display, adding a new dimension to the Power midfield.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 88 across the season, which places him as the sixth-highest-ranked forward available to us. He scored nine tons, including 125 and 144, in the season’s final round. He delivered nine scores under 80, but four of them were his opening month of the year.

For SuperCoach, he averaged 93.3 across the year and posted nine tons, and all three of his scores over 120 were monsters! A 153, 154 & 162! His scoring dipped below 80 in nine matches, but like in AFLFantasy, four were before his role changed.

The real story is what happened after the role change. From round five onwards, he scored nine tons across the formats and averaged 97.7 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 102.6 in SuperCoach. As a reference point, ranking that eighteen-week average compared to the other top forwards, he’d be ranked as the third forward in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and second in SuperCoach.

As strong as that data trend is, there’s more upside. In the final eleven games after the bye, he averaged 101.5 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 106.8 in SuperCoach. And in the last seven matches of the year, he averaged 110 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 112 in SuperCoach.

He’s shown glimpses of his fantasy pedigree over the three previous seasons, with multiple tons and good stretches of games going 80+. But 2022 was different; he did this as a midfielder more than as a crafty forward who occasionally pushes up the flanks.

The primary attraction behind selecting Rozee is that he’s shown the capacity to score at the top end of the forwards but to do so at a haircut of the same price point. Anytime we get some value and save some coin without compromising on our scoring potential is always a win. It allows us to reinvest that cash into some other players and improve our scoring in the totality of our squad.

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MY TAKE

Everything about Connor Rozee lends itself to the narrative that he’s clearly on an upward trajectory to becoming a premium forward selection for us this season. The combination of value + upside is why so many coaches are starting him this year. At the time of writing, he’s in 36% of SuperCoach, 41% of DreamTeam and 42% of AFLFantasy sides. Those are staggeringly high numbers. I get the appeal, but that is your level for a make-or-break guy in your starting squad. I’m not convinced fading Connor from your starting squad will ruin your season.

Have you been listening to these accompanying podcasts? Over the past few days, Rids has made some valid points on several players that can take a season away from you. However, as good as Rozee could and should be, I’m not sold he has yet shown the ability to take a season away from you. So, are you choosing to get him for value and skimping coin on investing in either Stephen Coniglio, Tim Taranto or Josh Dunkley? Or Can he be at their level?

We can only start so many forward premiums, and we need to create space for variable change should some big names appear to pick up DPP. So to start Rozee, the belief is that you believe he’ll be close enough; if not, score himself enough to become a topline forward option this year.

What should provide coaches with some additional confidence in selecting him isn’t just the fact he’s been having an elite preseason through the midfield. But Port Adelaide has invested seriously in the forward line in the offseason. The addition of Junior Rioli brings a smart, crafty forward into the mix with a dynamic trio of tall forwards. With Junior coming in alongside Orazio Fantasia & Sam Powell-Pepper, it adds some depth immediately. Throw in some more forward rotations from Travis Boak and a developing youngster in Jason Horne-Francis, and it starts to fill out nicely without Connor. This means that Port can now choose to place Connor there when desired, not out of necessity—freeing him up to take up some more slack through the midfield.

Sometimes, we weaponise statistics and data to suit our narrative in the fantasy community. And in this case, the statistics indicate the potential to be a topline premium. However, they also show a four-week average of 44 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 51 in SuperCoach. These aren’t injured games; they happened. And while on the probability scale, he’s more likely to be a premium and a bust, there is a world where he holds and potentially marginally regresses. That could be due to a role split more 50/50 in MID/FWD, or it could be due to the tag. Unlikely doesn’t mean impossible.

Coaches starting with Connor can easily feel justified that he’ll be a strong starting selection. At the same time, those without him will monitor his start to the season and the DPP additions heading into round six. Either way, Connor is relevant and worthy of serious conversations and considerations this preseason.

DRAFT DECISION

The top five forwards off draft boards have a consensus about them amongst the community. Josh Dunkley, Tim Taranto and Stephen Coniglio are many people’s clear top three. However, once these guys are off the draft board, the attention will quickly turn to a forward like Connor Rozee. He’ll be an F1, but he’s someone you could get in the third round of your draft, maybe even fourth if you’re lucky. I know the top-end forwards fall off quickly, but I couldn’t jump onto Rozee with a second-round selection.

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#17 Most Relevant | Tom Mitchell

Read Time:8 Minute, 45 Second

Tom Mitchell was one of the biggest names for the fantasy football community that moved clubs in the offseason. With a return to a lead midfield role at a new club, there is plenty of expectation that we could see some vintage scoring from the former Brownlow Medalist.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Mitchell
Age: 29
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: Midfield

2022 Highest Score:
120 Vs Brisbane (AFLFantasy)
142 Vs Geelong (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
195 Vs GWS Giants | AFLFantasy (2018)
192 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2018)

2022 Average:
96.3 (AFLFantasy)
96 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $528,600
AFLFantasy Price: $853,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $874,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Have you played any format of fantasy football for more than one season? If that’s the case, then the legacy of Tom Mitchell will be well known to you. Ever since he moved to Hawthorn, ‘Titch’ had been one of the top-scoring prospects we’d ever seen. In his 2017-2019 seasons, we’ll go down in SuperCoach & AFLFantasy folklore for a long time, with averages pushing the edges of 130 for the season.

It wasn’t the most prolific season for Tom, yet despite a significant fall away from his normative statistical dominance as a Hawk, he still posted some elite numbers. He ranked eighth in the AFL for contested possessions and handbells and top twenty in the league for disposals and stoppage clearances.

From his twenty-one games last year, he averaged 96.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. It featured ten tons; for SuperCoach, his average of 96 consisted of nine tons. Across all formats, his scoring dipped below 80 on just two occasions. Some solid tons are scattered across the 2022 season, which isn’t bad for a guy who had only one game all season where he attended 70% of more centre bounces all year.

You don’t have to go back to the 2017-2018 data before his broken leg to find strong scoring from Tom. His 2021 AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season was brilliant in totality but spectacular when you look into the more refined timing. Over the year, he scored nineteen tons, ten of them above 120 and five over 130. He had three scores under 100 all year and nothing dropping below 71. Before his bye round, he averaged 105.1. However, in the final eleven games of the year, he averaged 126 and didn’t let his scores fall below 105. He’s ranked fifth overall for averages and points, with only Jack Steele, Touk Miller, Jarryd Lyons and Jack Macrae.

This scoring pattern is similar in SuperCoach. He ranked eighth for total points and ninth for averages last year. It consisted of seventeen tons; nine were over 120, eight over 130 and a season-high score of 171. Entering into the Hawks round twelve byes, he’d scored just six tons and was going at an average of 105. From round thirteen onwards, he averaged 128.6, and his lowest score was 110.

Ultimately, the scoring he’s done is lately irrelevant. Not because he no longer possesses that capacity but because the variables have changed too drastically with him moving clubs. But what we do know about Mitchell is this. From his debut at Sydney back in 2013 to now, he’s shown that when he’s allowed to be in the midfield and around the ball, he scores at such a high points-per-minute output that he is nearly unmatched. He might never be the ‘Pig’ again that everyone loved, but he doesn’t have to be for his selection to be a masterstroke.

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MY TAKE

There are two schools of thought regarding the fantasy football impact & relevance of Tom Mitchell at Collingwood. The first is that he’s no longer the fantasy football beast he’d been in his early seasons at Hawthorn. The other is that we’ve got a proven top-tier premium at a crazy value. So much needs to be considered and unpacked. At his best, he’s the number one performer, but to do so, he needs to sit within a game style and team structure that allows that.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, Collingwood ranked 12th for total team points scored and 13th in SuperCoach. Specifically, from an individual player perspective, just one listed Magpie in Jack Crisp averaged over 90 for the season for AFLFantasy/Dreamteam. While in SuperCoach, we had three, Scott Pendlebury, Nick Daicos and again Jack Crisp. No current Collingwood player averaged 100 or higher in 2022. That’s not due to a lack of fantasy pedigree but more to do with an AFL system that isn’t fantasy football friendly. It’s similar to what we’ve seen from Richmond for the past five years.

All this data can and does start to create a rather compelling narrative, that being that Collingwood isn’t the most fantasy football-friendly side going around. The key to remember is that Mitchell was specifically recruited to address the club’s clear deficiency in winning contested possessions. Last season, the Magpies ranked 13th for clearances, 14th for contested possessions, and just two players ranked inside the top 75 for centre clearances in the AFL. The Pies have seen an issue and believe they’ve addressed it with Mitchell. They see him as the ticket to a better clearance rate and picking up a stronger share of contested footy.

During the 2020 & 2021 seasons at Hawthorn, Tom attended 74% & 70% of centre bounces. However, last year he dropped to 53%. I expect we’ll see Mitchell have a similar level of centre bounces (70% plus) at Collingwood. But the issue won’t be around his role; the big question is this. Will he get enough of a split between contested and uncontested possesions to make his scoring high enough?

Last year Mitchell ranked 8th for contested possesions per game with 13 but was 34th for uncontested possesions with 16. Compare that to 2021, where he ranked 25th for contested possessions, winning 12, but was first for uncontested possesions with 23. The data trend is similar across all of his career. When Mitchell is a dominant fantasy present, he racks it up more in the uncontested space than in tight. For bigger scores of Tom to pop, he needs a high volume of ball in space, something that the Magpies game style might not be allowed freely.

There is a world where mega scores can happen. But it requires a major change to the regular midfield makeup at Collingwood. Last year Jordan De Goey attended 77% of centre bounces. The next biggest three were Taylor Adams (65%), Scott Pendlebury (63%) and Jack Crisp (59%). It’s a relatively tight four, and for Mitchell to squeeze in, it’ll require a combination of either injuries or a bigger role change of some of these players. Thankfully, there’s a world where this can happen. De Goey has shown dominance as a damaging forward 50 option, while Crisp has spent a major slice of his AFL career across halfback. And while I don’t wish injuries on anyone, Adams has missed about 30% of games in the past two seasons. If a combination of these elements eventuates, I can see a world where he pushes the top 8-10 midfield averages again. He might not reach the 120+ days again, but i don’t think he has to. Anything near the vicinity of 115 is a monsterous win.

At this pricing range, we have significant options. We’ve discussed multiple lof them through the 50 most relevant. Luke Davies-Uniacke, Caleb Serong, Tom Green, Adam Cerra, Jai Newcombe and Chad Warner are within a few grand of his price point. Even former #1 draft pick Lachie Whitfield is in that pricing space. For the Mitchell selection to be deemed a success, he needs to score at a minimum average of 105 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam & 110 in SuperCoach. I can’t see him going less than his price point, so I don’t think he’ll hurt you if you pick him, but unless he can pop up that average of 15 points per game, he’ll also not burn you if you go against him. Personally, I find it easier to jump onto Mitchell than off him. He’ll always have the ‘fear of missing out’ feel if you ever move off him.

His current ownership stats have him inside the top ten most-owned players in AFLFantasy with 33%, the top twenty in DreamTeam with 36% and the top 30 in SuperCoach with 27%. With ownership that high and some uncertainty that I have that he can hit the scoring levels required to make it, I’m happy to take him on. But I’m not so proud and stubborn to miss him if he’s flying out of the gates. I’m more than prepared to use a corrective trade and go into him if he does show in those first few games the ceiling that made him the fantasy beast we’ve known and loved for years.

DRAFT DECISION

Tom Mitchell has the upside to be an M1 pick, you won’t have to spend that level of capital, but it’s within his scoring potential. If you want to own him, you might have to reach M2, but I would happily let someone else take him there. I feel comfortable taking him at an early M3 space, but that’s because I’m less bullish than others. As a result, I’ll hardly get ‘titch’ falling to a range I’m happy to select him.

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#18 Most Relevant | Stephen Coniglio

Read Time:8 Minute, 0 Second

Rarely can a premium still be seen with significant value built into it’s price. Stephen Coniglio has that potential in 2023. But, as good as he has been, and can be, is Cogs the perfect player to start within our teams? Or should we be watching what happens under a new coaching regime?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Stephen Coniglio
Age: 29
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield/Forward

2022 Highest Score:
130 Vs North Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
174 Vs North Melbourne (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
192 Vs Gold Coast | AFLFantasy (2019)
207 Vs Gold Coast | SuperCoach (2019)

2022 Average:
98.4 (AFLFantasy)
101.3 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $557,700
AFLFantasy Price: $871,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $893,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

For over a decade, we’ve spoken favourably about Stephen Coniglio in fantasy football circles. The Giants co-captain has spent multiple seasons as part of this series and in the conversation of being a valuable premium and value pick since his debut in 2012. However, over recent seasons Cogs has shown whether he’s playing as a centre-bounce midfielder or as a high half-forward when he’s on the park, he’s still a damaging prospect for opposition teams to play against.

The 2022 season started promisingly enough, stalled in the middle and flew home over the final few months. His average of 98.3 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 101.3 in SuperCach places him as the second-highest-ranked forward available this year based on averages. For a true reflection of Stephen’s season, the year should be split into two halves. He had the nine games of the season under Leon Cameron and then what he did in the next twelve under interim coach Mark McVeigh.

No fantasy coach enjoyed the rollercoaster ride of the final few months of Leon’s coaching reign. But the positive is it created some inbuilt value into his price point for 2023. He’s priced at 98 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 101 in SuperCoach. But shown in the twelve games he played under McVeigh, he could score upwards of ten points per game higher than he’s priced at. You rarely get this much potential upside with premiums at this pricing range, but with Stephen, we have it.

This scoring under McVeigh echoes some of his historical data of years gone by. In 2018-2019 he averaged 110.3 & 103.6 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 108.4 & 101.2 in SuperCoach. So the data is really clear. If we can get Cogs north of 60% of centre bounces, then we’ve got a serious top-end forward-eligible premium that can score at the same levels as our midfield premos.

Even though our forward lines have taken a significant hit with the loss of MID/FWD DOPP to Bailey Smith, Marcus Bontempelli and Luke Parker as a notable big three, we’ve still got some top-end talent, and Coniglio, based on proven scoring, can be right in the conversations as a top tier forward this season.

Over previous seasons there had been significant concerns about his injury history. And while he’s still yet to play a full season, he played 95% of games last year and 94% of 2020, showing that he’s just as likely recently to play out the majority of a season as he is to miss big chunks. Therefore the injury narrative can get in the bin.

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MY TAKE

Whenever a team undergoes a coaching change, that can significantly change several elements. From a club culture, the game style, the best on-field 22 mix, and even player roles can all see significant transformation under a new coach. We saw this play out in real-time last year under the difference of how Leon utilised Stephen Coniglio as opposed to Mark McVeigh.

Fantasy football coaches must seek answers to several primary questions to make an informed decision regarding Cogs in your starting squad. First, what is the game style that Adam Kingsley will deploy at GWS? Will this game style be conducive to fantasy scoring? What is the midfield mix like for the Giants? And what roles will Stephen be asked to fulfil within this?

What does the midfield mix look like for GWS? Regardless of the mix and approach, I can’t see Tom Green missing out on being a senior figure and being the one that they build this new Giants era around. We spoke about him earlier in the 50 most relevant here. But who is standing at centre bounces alongside him? Is it a heavy reliance on experienced hands in Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio and Callan Ward? If that’s the case, the path to a 105+ average is potentially very clear and simple.

Also available for consideration in the mix for Kingsley and co are Lachie Ash & Harry Perryman, who’ve both sown potential through the guts when given opportunities, all be it limited. It could be trickier if the CBA mix is expanded and spread more evenly to include these lads. And then the likes of Finn Callaghan, Harry Rowston and even Toby McMullin are all likely key pillars of the future. Does ‘Pipes’ Kingsley give them just glimpses, or will he throw them into the deep end at the centre bounce? Ultimately, we will know season proper, but how you view this mix will inform the decision substantially around his selection on your side.

How much of what Kingsley sat under at Richmond as an assistant coach will translate to GWS? Historically we’ve seen Richmond over the recent era give us only a few fantasy prospects. While Collingwood got a new coach from the Richmond regime last year, we also saw a need for genuine fantasy prospects at the top end. Does that mean we’ll see something similar from Adam at GWS? Ultimately, the trend isn’t positive, but it’s far from definitive. As I spoke about with Rids on the podcast, this GWS midfield, in a pound-for-pound battle at the top end, is still one of the most elite units in the AFL. Just as probable as a poor fantasy-friendly game style is that he plays to his playing cattle strength and leverages the elite midfield players on the list.

Many coaches will have Josh Dunkley as their first forward selected and would strongly argue that by season’s end, he’ll be the top-performing forward in 2023. The fact he is already it and done in a split MID-FWD role at Western Bulldogs, the expectation of an even higher performance as a pure midfielder at Brisbane is highly valid. Only a few currently eligible forwards have the potential to match Dunkley, let alone challenge him for that mantle. Stephen has the proven scoring ceiling to not just go on hot runs of a few months of 110+ but has multiple seasons of average north of 100.

As of February 1st, 35% of DreamTeam, 34% of AFLFantasy and 21% of SuperCoach players have him on their side. So either with a valid reason or not, there is a level of high selection confidence across the community that Coniglio will be open to the top performing forward this year. That’s likely because at his ‘downside,’ he’s still a mid-high 80’s performer. While the upside

He will be cheaper than this if he’s a player attending anything higher than 60% centre bounces. However, he is valuable, and he can take a season away from you if he has a hot start through the midfield.

If you have any significant doubts about Coniglio, he’s an upgrade target for you. Whether that be in a role or how the Giants structure up. If you trust two or three more premium forward options than Coniglio, then he’s an upgrade target for you. The fact that the community is split on what to do makes him highly relevant, and his early season performance will impact your season’s success.

DRAFT DECISION

The first forward off the board on draft day will be Josh Dunkley. That seems a fait accompli universally across all drafts and formats. But where will Stephen Congilio go? Some have him ranked second, while others are hesitant on the GWS midfield and will fade him marginally. Either way, he’ll be in the first handful of forwards selected.

Forward premiums fall away fast this year, and the popular community sentiment is to lock away the best forward early. Should this sentiment get actioned, I can see coaches leaping for him in the first round. If he doesn’t go there, he’ll be a snaffled up as an early selection in the second round

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#19 Most Relevant | Jack Sinclair

Read Time:5 Minute, 50 Second

Jack Sinclair was the premium defender that nobody predicted would arrive in 2022. Was it an aberration? Or is this the new normal? Either way, Sinclair is incredibly relevant for fantasy football in 2023.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Jack Sinclair
Age: 27
Club: St Kilda Saints
Position: Defender

2022 Highest Score:
146 Vs Western Bulldogs (AFLFantasy)
150 Vs Carlton (SuperCoach)

Career Highest Score:
146 Vs Western Bulldogs | AFLFantasy (2022)
150 Vs Carlton | SuperCoach (2022)

2022 Average:
102.9 (AFLFantasy)
113.7 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $626,200
AFLFantasy Price: $911,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $934,200

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

In the preseason, fantasy football content creators speculate about the players that could become premiums every preseason. But, unfortunately, there weren’t many (if any) that forecasted the breakout of Jack Sinclair.

Sinclair was ranked first in the league for kicks per game, ninth for effective disposals and inside the top twenty for bounces; metres gained and disposals. He is ranked elite for inside 50’s, groundball gets, intercept possessions, pressure acts, score involvements, effective kicks, and contested and uncontested possessions. In summary, his 2022 was ELITE! He deserved his maiden club best & fairest win and his place in the 2022 All-Australian team.

This stunning season certainly translated into a strong AFLFantasy/DreamTeam season. He scored ten tons last year. It included three scores above 120; 133, 140 & 146. On top of this, he had seven scores between 93-99 and dipped his coring under 80 just once. He ended the season with an average of 102.9 and was ranked second behind Sam Docherty for all defenders’ total points and averages. He scored 2,264 points last year, thanks ranked him tenth overall, and he finished with the 16th-highest average overall.

It was a near-perfect season in SuperCoach. His average of 113.7 had him the top defender for overall points and averages. He posted nineteen tons. That’s a triple-digit score from 86% of his games played. He went over 120 five times, including 133, 135, 140 & 150. He also dipped his score once under 80 (79) all season! If you include all player lines, he ranked seventh for total points and had the eighth-highest average.

Before 2022 his best fantasy football performances came the season prior. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he scored four tons and five additional scores over 80 on his way to an average of 79.3. For SuperCoach, he scored five tons, one over 120 and an extra seven scores over 80, with an average of 86.2. These numbers could look better. But it’s a reminder that players develop at different rates and sometimes need the right role to become fantasy relevant.

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MY TAKE

Almost everything is open to change whenever a club has a coaching change. From game style, players positions even to the sides best 22. So much can evolve. Under Ross Lyon, he has given early indications that Brad Hill will play on the wing in a similar role to what he did at Fremantle. This is relevant because Jack Sinclair now appears to have the freedom to be the sole mover of the ball off the Saints halfback line.

Becoming the man could be a double-edged sword for Jack. The upside, St Kilda rebound the ball almost exclusively. He already has the monopoly on kicking duties, but by becoming the backline general, he could see his scoring power increase, let alone hold. The negative is that he becomes the opposition team’s sole target for a tag. While they aren’t as regular as in previous eras, we did see teams happy to deploy a forward tag on the opposition’s team’s most damaging halfback. For St Kilda, that’s Sinclair.

In some corridors of the fantasy community, there’s some concern that Jack won’t have the plumb role across halfback. Some track watchers have talked about him spending significant time with the midfield group. While that’s not a role where I believe he’ll score at his optimum, it’s hardly a disaster if he roles through there. He spent four weeks last year attending between 31%-71% of centre bounces. In those four games, he averaged 99 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 103 in SuperCoach. If we contrast his scoring in that role against last season’s top defenders, he’d still be a top-six across all formats.

With such low ownership compared to what he’s done, what would classify a ‘success’ in starting teams? Simple that he scores need to have him at or alongside the top defenders. Over nine weeks between rounds 9-18, he averaged 120 in SuperCoach and 114 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam. If he does that, then he’s been an outstanding selection. Side note, that’s not cherry-picking data; that’s deliberately including his tagged game against Sydney, where he posted his lowest season score!

Relevance is the keyword of this series. Jack will be one of the most relevant defenders this year. If Sinclair holds his current low ownership but maintains his high scoring this season, he’ll be near impossible to catch cheap again. That makes him relevant. If he starts slow, the community will flock to him as an upgrade target and get a bargain. That makes him relevant. No matter what happens with his season, his fantasy output will directly correlate to the success of people’s seasons this year in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy & DreamTeam. For me, he’s right in the mix to start for SuperCoach.

DRAFT DECISION

If you want to own Jack Sinclair this year, you won’t be getting him at the bargain spaces you did in 2022. Instead, it’ll cost you a premium draft selection. As good as his 2022 season was, I still don’t see coaches choosing him as the first defender off draft boards. Even in SuperCoach, most will feel safest with Sam Docherty as the first defender selected.

He’ll be selected as someone’s D1, and his range will be mostly in the second round across formats. In AFLFantasy formats, he might sneak early into the third, but I can’t see him falling much beyond that.

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