Salary Cap Strategy

Patreon Exclusive | What to do when your team gets stuck
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Read Time:2 Minute, 19 Second

Wednesday 17th February will go down in history for fantasy football coaches in 2021. It was the day that for many coaches, their side got screwed over. It all started with news that RUC/FWD Rowan Marshall would miss that start of the season due to a stress fracture in his foot.

Not only was Rowan a great top 10 forward option, but he also provided some security for those starting with Braydon Preuss at R2. Despite him being a relatively easy pick, that DPP movement gave coaches a security blanket if the selection failed. A few hours passed, and now another ruck is on the cutting room floor. GWS confirm that Preuss will now miss 4-5 months due to a shoulder reconstruction.

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So now you’re stuck. You had a structure and players you loved, and within a matter of hours, that’s been destroyed. What do you do when you find yourself stuck with your side in the preseason?

Do you try and find another value ruck at R2? Does Ben McEvoy, Toby Nankervis or even a Sam Draper take the place of Preuss? Do you adjusted structure and remove Wayne Milera and go set and forget? Sooner or later, your side starts to change quickly and drastically and all in the case of one or two injuries. So, what should you do when your team finds itself stuck?

The answer is simple! Clear the decks, don’t save any remnant of it, do whatever you can and delete the team from existence. I know it feels like you’ve previously struck upon fantasy utopia and eliminating the team now will undo months of hard work. Now is the time to delete your team and start again.

Stop trying to squeeze players ‘in and out’ around a particular structure that clearly now will not work. Since first creating your team, potentially as early as December when the team pickers opened up so much has changed between now and then

.Whether it be injuries to premiums, key rookies emerging, role changes within sides and that’s all without seeing a few ‘competitive’ games of football with the AAMI community Series.

So try it out, see what happens you may find players, structures and strategies you’ve been battling with for weeks all find a natural way of landing smoothly. With still a month till the first lockout you’ve got plenty of time to tinker, so why not start again with a clear base. Who knows, you might find the perfect starting squad.

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SuperCoach Team Reveal | Rainman
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Read Time:41 Second

In the past 24 hours, my side has undergone some serious surgery. With just hours until round one commences this is what my SuperCoach side will look like.

Defenders

There is too much value in defence to ignore so whilst I acknowledge it is a risk I think it is balanced by strength on other lines

Midfield

Mids have a heavy focus on PPM with the first 5 being rolled gold SC studs and “The Suitcase” being next in line for the throne

Ruck

Can’t go past the big boys in Ruck. With reduced minutes, you would think that their ceiling and scaling makes them huge captaincy options

Forward

All midfielders as fwds. Tracca might finally be delivering what he have hoped for years and Andy Brayshaw has 3rd year breakout written all over him

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DreamTeam Team Reveal | Jordox
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Read Time:2 Minute, 30 Second

I’ve squeezed every penny so if teams aren’t kind, I will need to make some structural adjustments and therefore personnel could be drastically changed! But as of right now, this is how I’m hoping to start what is going to be the strangest and most unpredictable season of Dream Team anyone has ever seen.

Jordox’s DreamTeam

Backline:

Jack Crisp was one of my first picked and his huge Marsh series meant he didn’t budge at all but also annoyingly now means he’s less unique. Rory Laird hasn’t been spoken about much and I think there will be plenty of ball for him with the Crows tipped to struggle and Brodie Smith getting more midfield time. I really wanted to pick a unique over Dan Houston but his Marsh series was irresistible and no one can resist the value of Sam Docherty and Dylan Roberton. I’m hopeful Jarrod Brander can at the very least keep his spot and at the very best average 60-70 because either way, he’ll be a great cash generator early.

Midfield:

Luke Beveridge and his bizarre magnet spinning ways still make me nervous so the prospect of spending north of $800k on two Bulldog mids just didn’t sit right. I’ve gone with the tried and true Jack Macrae and am happy to take Josh Dunkley on and reel him in later. Zach Merrett and Stephen Coniglio are underpriced for their potential averages and if Patrick Cripps can get those stinky sub 70 scores out of his game, he’s a steal at $733k. Mitchell, Rowell and Pickett all pick themselves for different reasons and will be in most sides. Tom Green gets a guersney because getting a game for the Giants means he’s highly rated and will be part of a rotation used to replace Taranto.

Rucks:

I didn’t start with Brodie Grundy last year and regretted it as my overall ranking tanked early. Not this year! Sam Jacobs is an incredible value and I have no concerns his spot will ever be under threat from Shane Mumford. If he does have a rest at all, though, I’ve paid up for Naismith on the bench who is going to help bankroll my upgrades later in the season.

Forwards:

Not starting Whitfield is probably the biggest gamble I’m taking but I’m confident I can get him cheaper. All it will take is a few scores in the low 100s and his breakeven should sky rocket. We’ve been given a gift in Dustin Martin as a forward this year and I’m really surprised more aren’t selecting him. Jack Martin just came back into my team at the expense of Jack Steven but I’ve liked him all pre-season as a new team breakout option and Dev Smith presents serious value if he gets anywhere near his 2018 numbers. Andrew Brayshaw wasn’t on my radar pre-Marsh series but his form and role demanded I pick him. Taylor and Rankine will hopefully do their job as my kids on the field.

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AFLFantasy Team Reveal | MJ
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Read Time:2 Minute, 34 Second

With Hours to go until the opening round of AFL gets underway, I’ve decided to share with you my current AFLFantasy side.

Please note, this team could drastically change should the number of games in season or game length change.

Defenders

One thing was clear for me during the Marsh Community Series. The Adelaide Crows are playing a high possession game style. Players like Rory Laird should pick up plenty of ‘plus six’ scores as the club look to retain possession of the ball. The remainder of the backline seems very similar to others. Dan Houston and Sam Docherty present way too much value to go against the grain. While Cumming, Roberton and Zeeeeeerk Thathcerrrrr (that Rids) all look to be named round one and should score well above their price point.

Midfield

Jack Macrae is a gun! It was a toss of a coin between him and Josh Dunkley for M1, but I’ve decided on Macrae as my default captain if needed. Matt Crouch is a point per minute machine, and with less than 2% of coaches owning him, his uniqueness is insane. Should the games shrink quarters, Matt’s less likely to need a rest, bring on the points! Stephen Coniglio is an absurd value. Tom Mitchell‘s scoring potential, price point and ownership numbers make him a ‘must-have.’

All preseason I’ve been keen on Jack Viney and his preseason games further highlighted why. Sadly he’s gone from 1% ownership to nearly 7% in the past three weeks. The remaining three cash cows on the field are relatively common and obvious.

Rucks

Brodie Grundy isn’t just the clear #1 ruckman he’s also a captaincy option. However, as we discussed on a recent podcast, the ‘top-priced players’ could drastically have their scoring ceiling impacted should quarters shrink. No guarantee to start if they do.

Sam Naismith is there as a cash generation option, the handcuffing him with Jon Ceglar means if one (or both picks) fail to deliver the scores needed I can adjust quickly and fix the structure.

Forwards

Lachie Whitfield, much like Grundy in the ruck division is far ahead of the next best selection. You can build the case that even with a shorter quarter, he still presents a selection that is almost impossible to pass on. 

Dustin Martin will honestly get the chop if the AFL decide to decrease the length of quarters. His splits between midfield and forward arguably won’t change much, but his scoring will dip if game time does.

Jon Ceglar presents supreme value if he stays as the first choice ruck. The fact is he averaged mid 70’s last as the second ruck showcases his scoring. With less than 2% of coaches on him, I’m thrilled at how unique he is. He’s pushing that average 10 points easily higher. Andy Brayshaw needs no explanation while the cash cows will change based on team selection.

MJ’s AFLFantasy Team
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Patreon Only | Fox SuperCoach Team Reveal
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Read Time:1 Minute, 50 Second

Not long to go now as I safely sip on my last remaining Carona Extra 355ml stubbie, here goes.

Fox has revealed what his SuperCoach will look like for round one

Backline:

Going Laird over Lloyd as I feel Rory may be unders in 2020 and Lloyd will be my first defence upgrade, hopefully, get him a little cheaper and TBH just can’t afford both. The backline falls away quickly after Doch, but I feel there’s considerable cash to be made on this line, and certainly opens up my salary cap to spread across other lines.
Apologies to Houston and Weller who are still in and around my thought process’.

Midfield:

A 4 Premo midfield with Jack Stevens as the mid pricer. Would love to start 5 premo mids but happy to fit the 6 cab making rooks along this line, and needed a bit extra for Big Max.
Feels a little strange going into a season without Fyfe and Danger but feel the combination of my boy Lachie Neale, Macrae and Cripps can deliver big, especially adding my value pick in Coniglio. Will give Tom Mitchell a miss in this format. Clarrie Oliver will likely be my first mid upgrade.

Rucks: 

After much prayer I’ve decided to go the Gawn-Grundy combo, can I get an Amen? Set and forget in Super Coach feels right, an extra two mids pretty much and no tossing and turning with sleepless nights. Timmy English was very highly considered here, but the cash was finally found for the 2 big dogs. Comden appears the reasonable loop

Forwards:

Whitfield’s ceiling picks himself, the dynamic duo of Dusty/Tommy Lynch with a plethora of early MCG games and this forward line is looking pretty good, add the midfield services of Andy Brayshaw and Devon Smith and we’re getting to Wowee Boyoboy proportions.
Biggest unique is Tommy Lynch who is priced at 72, went at 99 in 2019 after the bye including finals, and at 7% ownership is an easy pick

Cash: 108k in the bank could be handy early

Rooks: Rooks at this stage are just pencilled in

What Do you think of Fox’s Team?

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Delete Your Team And Start Again
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Read Time:1 Minute, 45 Second

Clear the decks, don’t save any remnant of it, do whatever you can and delete the team from existence. I know it feels like you’ve struck upon fantasy utopia and eliminating the team now will undo months of hard work. Now is the time to delete your team and start again.

However, nothing could be further from the truth. Right now your team is stuck in fantasy purgatory and what you’ve got right now will be the undoing of your season if you do not make this change.

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Since first creating your team, potentially as early as December when the team pickers opened up so much has changed between now and then.

Whether it be injuries to premiums, key rookies emerging, role changes within sides and that’s all with seeing a few ‘competitive’ games of football with the Marsh Series wrapping up last week.

By deleting your side the fear of ‘losing’ everything is great, but rather what this exercise does is it does is empowers you to look at every player, every line and maximise the information and resources you’ve consumed to create a side based on all the absorbed data.

No longer are you trying to squeeze players ‘in and out’ around a particular player or look for reasons to keep a person in, but letting the data and knowledge determine your direction.

So try it out, see what happens you may find players, structures and strategies you’ve been battling with for weeks all find a natural way of landing smoothly. I know when I did it this week it changed everything and I was able to see a structure that is now barring injury I’ll use entering into the season.

Good luck! Step out and take a risk. I can’t wait to hear the results of what happens for you.

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Why St Kilda And Port Adelaide are now more fantasy football relevant
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Read Time:1 Minute, 36 Second

Earlier today the AFL relocated the clash between St Kilda and Port Adelaide. The game will now take place a week later at Marvel Stadium. For fantasy football coaches this now provides a massive change to how we navigate the multi bye rounds.

St Kilda training at Jiangwan Stadium in June, 2019. (C) AFL

Due to the continued worldwide concern around the spread of coronavirus, the AFL have adjusted the fixture for 2020.

The round 11 clash was intended initially for Sunday, May 31. However, it will now be played at Marvel Stadium in round 12. Both St Kilda and Port Adelaide will have their scheduled bye round moved seven days earlier.

What does it mean for fantasy coaches?

This means that during the multi bye rounds Power and Saints players will now be available across all three weeks of the bye weeks. This could further enhance the fantasy relevance and value of some premiums.

In our defensive players like the already popular, Dan Houston could have his ownership further boom. Teammate Darcy Byrne-Jones and breakout candidate Hunter Clark could both receive an ownership boost.

Through the midfield, St Kilda pair Seb Ross and Jack Steele could be value selections. A round 13 clash against Gold Coast might be the tipping point for selection. While former Port skipper Travis Boak and even fantasy favourite Tom Rockliff could also provide valuable points during the ‘best 18 rounds.’

In the forward line Power trio Connor Rozee, Robbie Gray and Brad Ebert are the best possible options while Scott Lycett or Rowan Marshall could be great ruck options if you’re looking for a ‘one week fix’ when Gawn and Grundy take a week off in round 13.

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The move of the AFL has made a substantial positive readjustment for how fantasy coaches of all formats chose to navigate the multi bye rounds.

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Six players that could replace the injured Tim Taranto
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Read Time:4 Minute, 15 Second

Last weekend the GWS Giants were hit with horrible news. The clubs reigning best and fairest winner Tim Taranto injured his shoulder and will require surgery. This reconstruction will mean he misses the next four to five months. With a return unlikely until after the bye round, it opens up an opportunity inside the Giants midfield. But for who?

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The season could not have had a disastrous start to the season for the Giants. Tim Taranto injured his shoulder in the within minutes of the club’s first Marsh Series match against Sydney. However, if any team has the depth to cover his loss, it’s GWS. Here are six players that could fill the void left by Tim Taranto.

Stephen Coniglio

Just weeks ago Giants coach suggested his new captain could spend more time forward as he looked to juggle the star-studded midfield. With Taranto’s injury, Stephen Coniglio could be released to play the majority of game time as a midfielder. Should this occur, the already underpriced premium midfielder presents more definite value for fantasy coaches.

His 2019 AFLFantasy average of 104 is excellent, but if we remove then injury impacted game where he scored 0, it boosts up seven points to 111. Similarly in SuperCoach his average of 101 is more than respectable, but with the injured game removed then he spikes up to 108.

That backs up his scoring from 2018 where he averaged 110 in AFLFantasy and 108 in SuperCoach.

Earlier in the preseason, I wrote about him in the 50 Most Relevant, and you can read that article here.

Tom Green

As a junior Tom Green highlighted that he was one of the best midfielders available in his draft year. Last year he averaged 24 disposals, eight clearances and four tackles per game in the Under-18 Championships. 

In the same game that Tim Taranto was injured, we got our first look at the future Giants star. He amassed 21 possessions, 15 of these were contested and kicked two goals. From a fantasy perspective, he scored 106 in SuperCoach and 76 in AFLFantasy. Should he debut round one and pick up some or all of Taranto’s midfield minutes we have a reliable midfield cash cow option to consider.

Jackson Hately

For many among the footballing community, Jackson Hately was already pencilled in for more opportunities with the departure of Adam Tomlinson. Given the similar physical and football traits, it’s understandable for the expectation. Taranto’s injury has just created an even bigger hole in the midfield. Given Hately’s physical presence and ability to win the ball on the inside and outside of the contest, I expect him to cement himself inside the sides best 22. 

Hately has had limited opportunities, but in his first two games with scores of 84 and 80 in AFLFantasy and 95 and 85 in SuperCoach, he has shown his fantasy scoring potential already.

Jye Caldwell

The explosive and damaging midfielder is one to come under substantial consideration for the Taranto role. The former #11 draft pick is a stoppage king who brings with him a healthy defensive mindset. Additionally, Caldwell has a burst of speed from the contest that will make him a fan favourite.

Toby Greene

Round 17 at the MCG, the Giants injury crisis hit its peak. Already Callan Ward, Josh Kelly and tagger Matt deBoer were all out. However, it was also the infamous match the Stephen Coniglio injured his knee and scored a giant doughnut for coaches. These injuries forced the coaches hands, and Toby was thrown into the midfield.

During the final six matches of the season, he showed his class, ball-winning and presence as a midfielder. The injury to Taranto could see the coaching staff ‘go back to the well’ and place him back into the midfield. When place there he scored: 144, 115, 126, 146 142 & 99 at an average of 128 in AFLFantasy. For SuperCoach he scored; 138, 112, 107, 134, 122 & 115 at an average of 121.

Given the lack of genuine forward premium candidates we have available this year, this move could be one of the most beneficial for fantasy coaches.

Earlier in the preseason, I wrote about him in the 50 Most Relevant, and you can read that article here.

Callan Ward

He’s still a minimum of six weeks away from getting back into AFL calculations. However, when he does, the former skipper is one of the more natural candidates to take on the additional midfield responsibility.

Back in 2018 he averaged 27 possessions, 13 of these were contested, seven score involvements and averaged 96 in AFLFantasy and 104 in SuperCoach.

Earlier in the preseason, I wrote about him in the 50 Most Relevant, and you can read that article here. 

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What the State of Origin Match Means for your Fantasy Footy Team
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Read Time:1 Minute, 51 Second

For the first time in over a decade, State of Origin Footy is back! And while on first glance it may not seem like it, it has huge implications on our fantasy footy teams for 2020.

Image result for state of origin 2020 afl
Tiger Teammates Shane Edwards & Bachar Houli will be on opposing teams this Friday.

So on the first reflection, you might be pondering ‘what the hell does an exibition match have to do with my fantasy side? On the surface, I agree with you. Not alot.

However, with many of the best players in the AFL taking part, we can get one significant takeaway from those playing. Should a player line up, we must conclude that they are match fit.

Players like Ben Cunnington and Dayne Zorko have removed themselves from this game eligibility after being initially selected. If it was playing for premiership points, they might still have been selected. However, with ‘nothing’ on the line we the football public can have one conclusion. If a player does participate, they are match fit.

As much as players want to ‘represent their state’ at the end of the day, this is a fundraising game. While clubs and coaches are allowing players to participate, they will not be doing so at a higher risk than what a regular Marsh Community Series match would.

This is positive news for players like GWS Giants star Josh Kelly. Who has historically struggled for getting through a full preseason Yet, this Friday night he’ll line up for the Big V. For him to play the club must be content with the training loads and health of their star player.

If a player has an ‘injury history’ concern for fantasy coaches and is playing this Friday night, then the fear is nothing to worry about.

As we talk about often on The Coaches Panel, nobody can predict an injury. History can be a helpful guide, but it doesn’t mean it will happen.

If anything, ‘injury’ prone players need to start with them as the only option. Then run the ‘injury gauntlet’ selections. Or Ignore them for the year. Remember, the injury risk only further increases with each match played.

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10 Players Unlucky to Miss the 50 Most Relevant for 2020
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Read Time:7 Minute, 35 Second

One of the hardest things in doing my annual 50 Most Relevant is culling players from the countdown that could be relevant in fantasy footy in 2020. Here are 10 Players Unlucky to Miss the 50 Most Relevant for 2020

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Andrew Brayshaw | MIDFIELD/FORWARD

Potential can be a dangerous word in fantasy footy circles. Andrew Brayshaw has plenty of points-scoring potential, and a case can quickly be built that he takes on plenty of responsibility in the midfield.

While he is every chance of pushing his season average north another 15 points per game into the mid 80’s he’s had only six scores in AFLFantasy and seven in SuperCoach over 80 in his 39 game career.

The positive trend is that four of those scores game over the final seven games of last season, but with only a few scores north of 90 in his career he’s filled with potential, but as yet he’s relatively unproven.

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Jordan Dawson | DEFENDER/FORWARD

Jordan Dawson came of age as a fantasy footballer last year. And now entering in 2020 he has arguably the most beneficial DPP pairing as a Defender/Forward.

My concern around Dawson is that last year his role changed multiple times across the season. Firstly as a wingman, then a half-forward and to finish the season across half-back. It was apparent that John Longmire liked him as the ‘Mr FixIt.’

In the right role, ‘JD’ has shown his scoring capacity, with eight scores above 90 in AFLFantasy and 10 in SuperCoach. However, I have a genuine concern that should one injury occur to the ideal Swans best 22 he’s the first guy moved to plug the hole meaning his fantasy scoring deviation week to week is a considerable risk.

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Harley Bennell | MIDFIELD

When I was initially crafting the top 50, Bennell was firmly in mind. However, there was one problem. At the time, he didn’t have an AFL contract.

Less than a month ago (around about halfway through the countdown) the Melbourne Football Club offered Harley a contract as a rookie. 

Last year I started the 50 Most Relevant with Harley, and if you want to see my take on his scoring history and potential, then you should check it out.

It’s pretty simple though, at his price and when if gets named, he’ll be hard to pass on even with the injury history.

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Adam Cerra | DEFENDER

It’s a similar line of argument for why ‘Chez’ missed as there was for Andrew Brayshaw. The role is there for the taking and as a junior, he showed he’s got the skills to be a phenomenal midfield talent. The question is very much around how do they structure up under a new coach?
Additionally, will he generate enough funds and score enough points to be the stepping stone you need?

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Brad Ebert | FORWARD

Last season Brad Ebert was flying in his new role as a half-forward. Between rounds 1-6 he had just the one score below 90 and was averaging 100 in all formats. From there he suffered a severe concussion and struggled across the remainder of the season.

In recent days the Port Adelaide coaching staff have declared he’ll be moving back into the midfield where he consistently averaged around the 90 marks. If that information had been publicly available a few months earlier he probably would’ve found himself into the 50 given the low number of potential forwards capable of scoring in that range.

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Brad Crouch | MIDFIELD

2019 was the year that Brad, his club and fantasy footy fans were anticipating. He played every game and ended the year with an average of 98 in SuperCoach and had the ninth highest average overall in AFLFantasy with 107.8.

At his price point, he no longer presents the value of 2019, and to be a viable option you need him to look to elevate his game a further 10-15 points per game in SuperCoach and an additional 5 in AFLFantasy. Could he? Yes! But at his price and given his career injury history, there is little merit in starting with him.

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Seb Ross | MIDFIELD

Seb, I don’t know what you did to ‘Richo’, but he had it in for you last year. After being a constant inside midfield presence and averaging over 100 in 2017-2018 in all formats suffered a decent scoring dip. Last year he dropped 5 points per game in SuperCoach and 13 in AFLFantasy.


However, under Brett Ratten, he posted scores of 159, 100, 129, 116 and 126 in SuperCoach. While in AFLFantasy it was 146, 97, 112, 99 & 103. Not a bad end to the year. While Seb does offer value with so many players moving into the Saints side, we need to see the midfield dynamic before getting the confidence needed to pick him.

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Darcy Byrne-Jones | DEFENDER

This preseason his teammate Dan Houston is the ‘hype man’ that every man and dog is on. I do understand the attraction, but DBJ is just as competent as a scoring companion.

In SuperCoach, from round nine onwards he had seven scores over 100, two additional 90’s and averaged 103. During the same timeframe in AFLFantasy, he scored five tons, two other 90’s and averaged 101.

What’s even more compelling about those averages over 14 game is that it includes a game where he played deep defence and scored single figures.

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Elliot Yeo | MIDFIELD

It’s a fairly simplistic answer, but an honest one. There are only so many premium midfielders you can include in a countdown like the 50 Most Relevant. Otherwise, the list turns into a ‘premo midfielders’ ranking.

Over the past two seasons, Yeo has proven his a consistent ‘105’ range midfielder and should you get the timing of him right he could be a perfect unique in your midfield.

There is one thing I’m convinced of though. Of all the midfielders that ‘could’ be impacted by the arrival of Tim Kelly, I’m least concerned about Yeo.

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Jacob Townsend | FORWARD

Now at his third AFL club, this premiership Tiger is hoping for another chance at the elite level. At the VFL level the past few seasons he’s been a reliable inside midfielder averaging 18 disposals, six tackles, four marks and four inside ’50s per game

At Essendon, the need for a big-bodied midfielder has been evident for years, and ‘Towner’ should be given a chance through this role.

As much ‘potential’ as he holds he’s also competing for this spot against Tom Cutler and Mitch Hibberd. Should he win out this battle and play forward, he will be a strong stepping stone candidate.

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