Salary Cap Strategy Archives - Page 3 of 8

#9 Most Relevant | Stephen Coniglio

Read Time:5 Minute, 19 Second

For years Stephen Coniglio has shown the ability be to be among one of the best premium midfielders. Is 2020 the season we see Cogs put it all together for 222 games?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Stephen Coniglio
Age: 26
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfield

2019 Highest Score:
192 Vs Gold Coast (AFLFantasy)
207 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

2019 Average:
103.6 (AFLFantasy)
101.2 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $549,500
AFLFantasy Price: $769,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $749,400

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It was a crazy 2019 season for Stephen Coniglio. After considering his future for a majority of the year ‘Cogs’ officially committed to being a one-club player. Additionally, he had to sit on the sidelines while his side was belted from pillar to post in the Grand Final.

Along with all of this happening throughout the seasons, he missed seven games across the year with multiple injuries. Despite this, he was still able to average 26 possessions, six score involvements, five clearances, four marks four tackles and four inside 50’s a game when fit and firing Cogs is one of the elite midfielders in the AFL.

From 15 games last season in AFLFantasy he had nine scores over the ton including four over 120. That number may look small. However, when you drill into those 120+ scores, he goes on and converts them into monster scores. 126, 146, 161 and 192 was what he delivered when getting over 120.

In SuperCoach he joined the elite company of scoring over 200. He did this in round 11 against the Gold Coast Suns with a 207. Across the season he had nine tons, and four over 130.

His fantasy football numbers look sharp, but due to a knee injury early against the Tigers in round 17, he scored a 0 across all formats. Because of this, he’s been given a natural ‘discount’ to his pricing. I’m generally anti ‘removing’ injury affected games, but given it was within the opening minutes in this instance I’ll make an exception.

His AFLFantasy average of 104 is excellent, but if we remove then injury impacted game, it boosts up seven points to 111. Similarly in SuperCoach his average of 101 is more than respectable, but with the injured game removed then he spikes up to 108.

Before 2019 ‘Cogs’ has shown a continued ability to put up a stable frequency and ceiling of hundreds.

In 2018 he played 21 games and averaged 110 in AFLFantasy which included 15 tons and six scores over 120. In SuperCoach he averaged 108 which was made up of 12 tons, and half of those were 120 or higher.

A closer look at this season reveals to us how strong his value is in the rolling lockout formats of SuperCoach and AFLDreamTeam. Over the opening six weeks of that season, he delivered numbers that make him a captaincy loophole candidate. In SuperCoach he scored: 129, 120, 124, 116, 116 & 93. For AFLDreamTeam he posted 146, 120, 111, 121, 112 & 102.

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MY TAKE

One of the critical factors for the scoring variation being so drastic for Coniglio this year was he found a way to pick up niggling injuries across the season. First, it was a hand injury, then corkie and a knee concern before finally succumbing to another knee problem that cost him a grand final spot. This stop-start season with injury meant he got no consistency in his game and was also protected in-game with multiple times being used deep forward.

In terms of recovery from his season-ending knee injury, everything is tracking positively. Many within the GWS camp believed that should the Grand Final have been a few days late that Cogs would’ve been able to play. So it’s no surprise to hear that he’s a strong performer on the track. Right across this preseason, he’s been leading from the front both metaphorically and literally. It looks like the captaincy sits well upon his shoulders.

One of the big question marks around Stephen Coniglio isn’t about him, but rather about who he shares the multi bye with. Arguably, round 14 is the most stacked for midfield premiums. Rory Sloane, Matt Crouch, Brad Crouch, Josh Dunkley, Jackson Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli, Josh Kelly, Callan Ward, Tim Taranto and Tom Mitchell are just some of the candidate’s coaches are considering. Where you rank Cogs amongst these names will give you the information you need to know about whether he is someone you should select or not.

I have no concern that he will score well in the Giants midfield. He’s shown across multiple seasons no matter who is missing or playing he scores well. He’s also a dangerous option when resting inside the Giants forward 50.

We rarely get built-in value into premiums, but with Cogs, we have it. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he’s in my starting squad. He’s shown over two seasons he can go 110, and we are paying for much less than that.

I like him for value in SuperCoach, but is his 108-110 potential enough for you to start him? I don’t have him as a top 8 averaging midfielder in that format, so I’ll instead choose to upgrade to him.

DRAFT DECISION

Given his ‘injury affected’ average, he’s sliding down some draft boards a little further than I rank him. The positive is he could be available late in the second round/early third which given I rate him as a top-eight midfielder is a great value pick up.

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#10 Most Relevant | Rory Laird

Read Time:5 Minute, 22 Second

Over the past few years, he’s been one of the most consistent defenders in the game. After a ‘quiet’ season and with a new coach, is Rory Laird headed back to a triple figure average?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Rory Laird
Age: 26
Club: Adelaide Crows
Position: Defender

2019 Highest Score:
134 Vs St Kilda (AFLFantasy)
124 Vs St Kilda (SuperCoach)

2019 Average:
96.9 (AFLFantasy)
96.8 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $525,800
AFLFantasy Price: $719,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $700,600

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

In what many considered ‘down season’ for the Adelaide superstar, Rory Laird still had phenomenal numbers across the season. In 2019 he averaged 28 disposals & 5 marks per game. Across the AFL he was ranked fifth for total effective disposals, sixth for uncontested possessions, 11th for total intercepts, 12th for rebound ’50s and 18th for disposals.

Last season in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he posted eight scores of 100 or more, but just the one above 120. Added to these tons were eight scores between 90-99 and only three below 80. With a seasonal average of 97 and the lowest score of 74, it’s easy to see why Laird was a popular premium in 2019.

In SuperCoach he averaged just shy of 97 across the year and barely disappointed owners with a terrible score. With a seasonal low of 73 and only two scores under 80, he was a picture of consistency. Laird also showcased some of his strong scoring with eight tons, three of them over 120 and an additional six scores between 90-99.

In isolation, Rory Laird’s 2019 season looks strong. And it was, however, coaches that started with him would’ve been hoping to see a similar return to his 2018 season.

That year he scored fourteen tons in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam seven of them where over 120 and just the three scores under 89 across the season. While in SuperCoach he scored thirteen tons, six of those were over 120 and in his opening twelve games of the year had just one score below 98.

These scores build off the strong fantasy scoring from the 2017 season where he averaged 100 in all formats and AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he scored over the ton in twelve matches, while in SuperCoach is was eleven scores of one hundred or more with six of them over 120.

Since forcing his way into the Crows side, he’s been incredibly durable missing just the eight games in the past five years and only two games in the past three years.

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MY TAKE

His scoring ceiling wasn’t on display as much in 2019, but his consistency certainly was. To average in the high 90’s and have approximately only 1/3 games reach the ton is impressive. This highlights his scoring basement and that even if he fails to ‘ton-up’ for you, he’s not the type to burn coaches with reduced scores.

What was the ‘cap’ on the scoring? You can build plenty of narratives. And rather than it being one I think it’s a combination of several. However, one of the most significant differences in personal for Adelaide in from 2018-2019 was Brodie Smith. He is one of the Crows best running players but also arguably the best user of the ball by foot. The club loves to get the ball into his hands and at times that meant Laird was overlooked. In addition to this Wayne Milera was also being used alot off the half-back. Rory was still able to score well, but with these two arguably stronger users of the ball by foot, he lost some ceiling.

However, a new era has arrived under Matthew Nicks, and like with any coach, an element of caution must be given. What game style do they play? What position will he play? While I don’t believe he will be too impacted with what Nicks and the Crows choose to do, it is a factor we need to consider.

By the time round 23 comes around, I believe every coach will want him in their side. He has been so good for so long and given I can’t see a drastic scoring cliff. I think he still ends in most coaches completed side.

However, when it comes to players like Rory Laird who have high consistency but can lack ceiling coaches have two thought process to consider. Neither is ‘wrong’, but we default to one over the other.

Start him and build around it. This approach is where you pick safe, reliable and consistent premiums in your starting squads. Someone who will not destroy you with scores in the 50’s and 60’s. What they may lake inconsistent ceiling, they make up for in minimal scoring deviation.

The other is to take on the reliable guy and pick those with high ceiling. Players that are capable of putting an average of 110+ over six weeks. The players who can very quickly set your starting squad apart from the pack.

Which side of the fence do you land on with your premium defenders? Your answer to that will tell you whether you should start or upgrade to Laird.

DRAFT DECISION

A popular trend that’s developing in mock drafts is the early selection of defenders very early. It’s even more common than not to see Rory Laird rightly or wrongly off the board by the end of the opening 15 selections. For me, he’s certainly worth a second-round selection, but I’d personally be targetting him as a very early third.

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Take On The Panel | AFLFantasy

Read Time:30 Second

Think you’ve got what it takes to beat the Coaches Panel in DreamTeam?

Below are the league codes where you can take on members of the panel in a head to head combat.

Be sure to also sign into the Coaches Panel official group, this will be the code you need to use for the ‘Nobel Koel’ competition.

COACHES PANEL RIDS | N9663LUJ (FULL)

COACHES PANEL TIM | EUV6W5TF (FULL)

COACHES PANEL KANE | A4VXMAPX (FULL)

COACHES PANEL MJ | HMCZU46E (FULL)

Looking for more from the Coaches Panel? We have cash leagues, exclusive articles, podcast, team reveals and more for our Patreons.

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#11 Most Relevant | Tom Mitchell

Read Time:6 Minute, 30 Second

He’s one of the most elite fantasy footballers we’ve ever seen. However, coming off a severely broken leg will Tom Mitchell return to his brilliant best?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Tom Mitchell
Age: 26
Club: Hawthorn Hawks
Position: Midfield

SuperCoach Price: $630,900
AFLFantasy Price: $671,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $747,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

The date was January 10th, 2019. A day that on the surface seems to be irrelevant, but for Tom Mitchell, the Hawks and fantasy coaches it was super important. It was the day that ‘Titch’ broke his leg at Hawthorn training.

It was a disappointing start to the season for all after what was a phenomenal 2018 season. Mitchell, led the league in disposals with 848, an average of 35 per game. The inside beast averaged more than 16 contested possessions and eight clearances a game. Mitchell also ended winning the AFL Players Association MVP award, being included in the All Australian Team and winning his first Brownlow Medal.

During the 2018 season, he was dominant in all fantasy formats of the game. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he played 22 games, had only one score below 80 and averaged 129.1. It consisted of seventeen scores of 100 or more, fifteen of them higher than 120 and a ridiculous ten over 140. That year he reached his personal best AFLFantasy score with a 50 possession and 13 tackle game against GWS. In that game, he posted a 195.

As a reference point, only Dane Swan’s 2012 season were he averaged 133 and Tom Rockliff’s 2014 going at 134 have averaged more in a single season.

Across that season for SuperCoach he had only one game where his scoring dipped beneath 80. Mitchell reached triple figures in 18 games, had 14 scores over 120 and nine that was over 140. Two of those games were over 180 including personal best against Carlton. That game he had 46 possessions, nine tackles, two goals and 192 SuperCoach points.

However, ‘Titch’ has been a scoring beast for a long time. In his first season at Hawthorn for SuperCoach he had only two matches all season he failed to reach the ton with scores of 98 & 85. That year (2018) he averaged 118.8, which consisted of 20 scores over one hundred, and nine over 120.

Tom Mitchell’s in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam has a seasonal (2018) low of 94, and it was one of only two scores that he didn’t reach the ton. From his 20 scores over the hundred markers, fifteen of them were above 120 and five over 140 including a 177 against the Magpies.

Since joining the Hawks, he has played 44 games and scored an AFLFantasy ton in 83% of matches (37) 86% of games (38) in SuperCoach.

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MY TAKE

No coach in SuperCoach, AFLFantasy or DreamTeam would doubt that Tom Mitchell is one of the most elite scoring forces we’ve ever seen. However, we have one gigantic question we must answer before selecting him?

No, it’s not about if he’ll struggle to maintain such a high possession game. Even with the development of James Worpel last season and the continued positive health of Jaeger O’Meara the way Titch gets to the ball both on the inside and outside of contests will not stop him from pushing as one of the top-scoring players.

Even if the club does ease him back into it via a different role he’s shown even at Sydney he can score with low time through the midfield.

The big concern is, how does the broken leg impact his scoring this year? The positive for coaches is just in the past week Hawthorn has been very positive in that he will be right to go for the opening game of the year.

Former Hawthorn champion and now assistant coach Sam Mitchell had this to say recently. “He’s certainly looking pretty sharp … the plan at this point is that he’ll be ready to play sometime in the pre-season games and be ready for round one.”

That’s positive news, but will he return as the scoring beast of old? Or will we see some regression? Honestly, hindsight will tell us in the end, but what we can do is look to other players that have suffered similar injuries and see what differential occurred (if any) coming back from a severe break.

In 2005 Richhmond’s Nathan Brown was dominating the fantasy landscape with an average of 101 in AFLFantasy and 121 in SuperCoach. However, the following season since recovering from an equally as horrific break he managed to only average 60 in AFLFantasy and 65 in SuperCoach.

Michael Barlow, in his debut season of 2010, was dominating the game. An average of 109 in AFLFantasy and 116 was cut short horrifically with a broken leg. The following season he managed to average only 85 in AFLFantasy and 83 in SuperCoach.

While the numbers aren’t as drastic, we have seen scoring dips from Michael Voss, Robbie Gray and Mitch Wallis all coming back from injury. So based on history, the question to ponder isn’t will he regress? But instead, how much and is he still worth selecting?

It’s only a small flag, but Mitchell does fave two of the more damaging taggers in the game after the bye Round in Ben Jacobs and Matt de Boer. He’s far from a certainty give O’Meara is arguably more damaging with the ball, but it is something to consider.

In AFLFantasy it’s an absolute no brainer selection. Give his discount, the two trades a week and the fact he’s in over 50% of teams he is as close to a ‘must have’ as you can get. Honestly, if this list was for AFLFantasy only he would’ve been #1.

SuperCoach, I’m more cautious. I don’t believe he offers the value to start him given the potential risks. So in that format, I’ll target him as an upgrade. In DreamTeam, he does present value and is someone I will consider seriously.

I’ll be watching him very closely in the Marsh preseason games, not just for his scoring points but how he moves and does he show any hesitation or drastic role change.

DRAFT DECISION

His draft range is incredibly challenging to forecast. While we all say we won’t reach to own him, the fact is when it comes around to your selection on draft day, you’ll have a split second dilemma. To take or not to take Tom Mitchell. In all honesty, while there are risks associated, I still see him flying off draft boards in the second round.

His potential upside is so significant that even the most experienced coach will find it hard to pass him up.

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AFLFantasy Preseason Watchlist | Gold Coast Suns

Read Time:4 Minute, 8 Second

Lewy & Checkers from Lane Kicking are back with their take on the Gold Coast Suns. Take a look to see who is on their AFLFantasy watchlist.

BREAKOUT: Will Brodie – $612,000 (MID)

It’s going to be really hard to pick a bloke at 600K+ who has only ever played a best of 8 games in a season, but here goes. If Brodie can crack the Sun’s midfield there is upside galore about this young fantasy jet who showed just some of his talent with 29 disposals, 9 tackles and 142 fantasy points against North Melbourne in Round 12.

At 189 cm, he is the prototype of the modern-day (fantasy) midfielder, a tall, big-bodied inside mid who is good overhead, finds plenty of contested ball and loves to tackle. Sounds a lot like Patrick Cripps doesn’t it? While he struggled to get a good crack at it last year, he was doing everything he could to prove his case in the NEAFL averaging 33 disposals, 5 marks and 4 tackles a game.

Coming into his fourth year, the fantasy potential is obviously there, we are just hoping Stewy Dew gives the former Pick 9 some time in the middle.

TRACK: Izak Rankine – $170,000 (FWD)

This young and exciting forward was labelled a once in a generation player in his draft year, only to spend his first season at the Suns on cotton wool after a hamstring tear in the pre-season. Coming off back to back All Australian honours at U/18 level, plus spending two seasons in the West Adelaide SANFL side, we can now add an entire season in the AFL system to his resume, you would be hard-pressed to find a young 19 year old more prepared to play his first game of AFL.

He made his senior SANFL debut at just 16, kicking 2 goals on debut, and averaged 14 disposals and 1.5 goals per game in 2018. His ability to make something out of nothing and break open games is something that will come in really handy for the young team at Gold Coast. In the Under 18 State Championship Final, he had kicked 3 goals in the first 5 minutes of the match and ended up with 5 goals and 17 disposals as a crumbing forward.

While his role up forward can be a little restrictive for fantasy scoring, where we see Izak being handy is his potential high ceiling, and the fact he might be able to kick a few bags of goals which would do wonders for the breakeven of a rookie priced player. He has the talent and he has played against the bigger bodies and held his own for 3 years now, we just want to track his first few pre-season games and make sure his body is all good to go for Round 1

ROOKIE: Noah Anderson – $268,000 (MID)

Every man and his dog is so hot on Number 1 Pick Matt Rowell, we thought we would do our write up on his best mate who comes in 2k cheaper. Noah’s 191cm frame should help him make an impact at AFL level from Round 1, and his ability to rotate up forward as a third tall (Think Dangerfield/Bontempelli) should mean he sees a fair bit of game time in his first year.

While he only averaged the 84.5 points at the U/18 champs, he did average 107 for the season in the TAC Cup including a 155 point game where he had 44 touches (26 kicks, 18 handballs), including 20 contested, and kicked 2 goals, showing his AFL Fantasy Potential.

It’s going to be a line call if you start Anderson or Rowell, starting both would be hard setting you back $538k, so we are very keen to see what they can dish up in the Marsh Community games.

UNDERDOG: Brandon Ellis – $629,000 (MID)

Other than being a MID only in 2020, the toughest task for Brandon will be seeing if he can maintain or even improve his 84 average from last year. Track record is against him, as we have seen in the past with players who have come to the Suns, they generally drop off in scoring, and while I don’t have the stats to prove why I would like to think it would be due to probably losing a few more games than they win.

Pearce Hanley dropped 11 points in his first year at the Suns, while George Horlin Smith and Jordan Murdoch dropped 16 and 15 points off their averages last year after swapping across from the Cats.

The upside for picking Ellis is he has been rumoured to be playing a midfield role, where he averaged 102.5 back in 2015. Will be one to watch, if he can get back up to those numbers, or even high 90s, he will be a steal in draft leagues.

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#12 Most Relevant | Aiden Bonar

Read Time:3 Minute, 16 Second

The former first-round draft pick found it challenging to break into the GWS Giants best 22. An offseason trade to North Melbourne brings him right into the best Kangaroos side and a fantasy-relevant player.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Aiden Bonar
Age: 20
Club: North Melbourne Kangaroos
Position: Midfield/Forward

2019 Highest Score:
49 Vs Sydney (AFLFantasy)
50 Vs Sydney (SuperCoach)

2019 Average:
42 (AFLFantasy)
41.5 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $202,800
AFLFantasy Price: $333,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $273,300

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

I like what the Kangaroos are doing with the addition of Aiden Bonar. In his draft year, he was viewed as one of the best athletic prospects in the pool. The Roos will be hoping he can continue his development from a powerful forward role player to a genuine inside bull.

Despite the injury issues the GWS Giants suffered throughout the season, Bonar found it almost impossible to get game time. From the 2 games, he did play he was used predominantly forward with minimal opportunities through the midfield. In those two games, he scored 49 & 35 in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam and 50 & 33 in SuperCoach.

Last year in the NEAFL he found himself playing in multiple roles and not being able to get settled through the midfield. In the NEAFL he averaged 18 disposals, 6 tackles, 3 marks & 4 inside 50.

The Kangaroos need to bring some fresh faces with Shaun Higgins (31) Ben Cunnington (28) and Jack Ziebell (28) the current midfield leaders.

Bonar (20) along with Luke Davies-Uniake (20), Tarryn Thomas (19) and Jy Simpkin (21) are the future of North Melbourne. 2020 and 2021 are crucial years for the Roos, and a successful transition of responsibility in the midfield is critical.

MY TAKE

He moves from fantasy footy irrelevance at GWS into the conversation at North Melbourne. From his two games this season he averaged just over 40 across the formats. The key questions will be first, is he worth the premium cash cow price tag in our starting squads?

A few weeks ago, we spoke about this when Matt Rowell was featured in the 50 Most Relevant. For the selection to be worthwhile, the three key questions to answer will be… How many rookies will we get that are midfield and forward eligible? How are they priced? Do you forecast he will score approximately 15 points per game more than the lower-priced rookies?

Fantasy coaches have plenty of strong cash cows /midprice already entering 2020, so for him to be a good selection, he’ll need to outscore them.

Can he force his way into the Roos engine room which already boasts Cunnington, Ziebell, Davies-Uniake, Higgins, Anderson, Simpkin, Dumont and Thomas? This will be something fantasy coaches need to watch with great interest. If he can, based on his likely price point, he needs to be on your preseason watchlist.

We are yet to see some preseason games, but from track watchers at North Melbourne, he’s been a dominant force at stoppages matching it with the likes of Ben Cunnington and using his penetrating kick to move the ball deep inside 50.

If he stays through that Kanagaoo midfield, then we could have an extraordinary value MID/FWD candidate.

DRAFT DECISION

In a single season league, he’s worth a late-round selection given the risk at this point of the draft is non-existant. The upside could be that you get a forward option that is worth placing on the field.

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#13 Most Relevant | Adam Treloar

Read Time:5 Minute, 18 Second

Ever since he joined the Magpies, he’s been one of the most reliable midfield premiums available. Everything looks set for that trend to continue for Adam Treloar and his owners.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Adam Treloar
Age: 26
Club: Collingwood Magpies
Position: Midfield

2019 Highest Score:
152 Vs Richmond (AFLFantasy)
177 Vs Gold Coast (SuperCoach)

2019 Average:
113.6 (AFLFantasy)
113.4 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $615,800
AFLFantasy Price: $839,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $820,500

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Adam Treloar is one of the most enjoyable players to own in fantasy and watch in AFL in general. Adam wins plenty of his own ball, he posses a great burst of speed away from stoppages, can get on the outside and link up and impacts the scoreboard.

Last year in the AFL he ranked first for total overall disposals, third for effective disposals, 4th in uncontested possessions, 12th clearances. Across the 2019 season, he averaged 32 possessions going at a 71% efficiency. It included six score involvements, six clearances, five tackles and four inside ’50s per game.

From his 22 AFL games year In AFLFantasy, he ended up averaging 113. That placed him third for overall points, ranked second for all midfielders and fourth for averages. Breaking down the numbers he posted 18 scores of 100 or more, scored over 120 in 10 games and only dropped below 90 in two.

In SuperCoach he ended the 2019 season ranked fifth for total points of all midfielders, ninth by averages and had an average of 113. That year posted 17 tons across the season, with seven over 120 and dipped his scoring below 83 in just one game.

It was a personal best season for him in all formats, and if you owned him at any point of the season, you would’ve been happy. However, between rounds 12-21 was when he was at his peak. Over these nine weeks, he toned up every single week.

While it was a career season for this talented Magpie, he’s been delivering strong scoring for years. He now has six consecutive seasons in all formats averaging 100 or more, and two of those years he averaged 110 or higher.

A player scoring ceiling is essential, and with Treloar that’s evident. In his past 56 games, he’s posted 41 AFLFantasy tons (73% of games) and 38 in SuperCoach (67%). However, his scoring basement is equally as important. Nobody likes paying the big dollars on a premium only to get a rollercoaster of scoring variation. With Adam, that doesn’t happen. He barely will give you a sub 80 score. Over the past three seasons 56 games in SuperCoach he’s had only six games (10%), and in AFLFantasy it’s four (7%).

Embed from Getty Images

MY TAKE

Adam Treloar is certainly known more as an AFLFantasy/DreamTeam midfield premium than SuperCoach. However, last year we saw the potential both in terms of scoring consistency and ceiling. In this format, though, many will still have questions.

The significant one being, can he elevate his game to average close to 120? In SuperCoach Patrick Cripps, Lachie Neale, Patrick Dangerfield, Nat Fyfe, and Jackson Macrae have shown recently the ability to average this or over. While this is a fair argument, he doesn’t have to do so to be relevant. Last year Adam was ranked fifth for midfielders for total points ahead of many of the names above. What he has in this format that those names don’t is a low ownership percentage. Not bad to get a top 5 total points scorer in less than 10% of teams.

In AFLFantasy you don’t have the luxury that DreamTeam and SuperCoach players do. In these formats, you get multiple chances to nail your skipper with the rolling lockout. However, in AFLFantasy, you can only ever try the ‘captaincy loophole’ during Thursday night games. In 2019 Collingwood have three, which is the second-most of any club. Two of these come in the opening four rounds. Many will be tempted to use Brodie Grundy and with good reason, but over these opening few rounds, Treloar looks a get unique vice-captain option.

In Round two the Pies play the Tigers and last year he scored 152 and 130 against the eventual premiers. While in round four they take on the Lions and last year he scored a 120 against them. Not bad VC scores if you can get near that again this year.

Adam Treloar ticks every box as a premium midfielder. Durable, high scoring ceiling, frequency of hundreds and a secure scoring basement. I have him locked firmly as a starting squad player in my AFLFantasy and DreamTeam sides. In SuperCoach, I can’t find room for him, but he is one I like as an upgrade target.

DRAFT DECISION

No matter your drafting format of choice, Adam Treloar is a good M1 selection. However, for those in SuperCoach formats, he will slide under the radar and will be someone you can select in the second round and maybe even third. Depending on your strategy this will allow you to either bolster your midfield deep or let you fill up other lines with your first 1-2 picks and still have a topline midfielder with him.

In AFLFantasy, I can see him going anywhere in drafts from an overall pick #4, right through to a mid-second-round selection.

Whoever ends up owning him after draft day will have one of the best midfielders going around.

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#14 Most Relevant | Sam Docherty

Read Time:6 Minute, 43 Second

Injuries have robbed the Blues and fantasy coaches of seeing one of the best halfbacks in the game. With Sam Docherty back, at his price, he is arguably one of the most straightforward selections for fantasy coaches this year.

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Sam Docherty
Age: 26
Club: Carlton
Position: Defender

SuperCoach Price: $436,100
AFLFantasy Price: $563,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $591,200

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WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

It’s been a tough two seasons for Sam Docherty, his teammates, Blues supporters and fantasy coaches in general. Thankfully, it looks like in 2020 the Carlton co-captain is ready to play at the elite level.

When fit ‘Doc’ is an elite defender in the game, who has the rare ability to cut teams apart with his damaging ball use by foot, but also is a difficult one on one matchup for forwards.

Docherty’s presence both as a defender and leader will be crucial for the development of the entire Carlton playing group let alone for a still young defensive core six. So how well is Doc travelling? Defensive coach Dale Amos had this to say on just how well he is going.

“He’s in fantastic shape… he’s training as well as anyone, and he’s back in full training,”

“We’re excited about what he’s going to produce over the coming weeks.”

“His growth has come from not being able to play: his leadership has grown because he hasn’t been able to play.”

Fantasy coaches remember with great fondness 2017 season of Sam Docherty. That year in AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averaged 117, it featured 16 scores of 100 or more, with ten of them above 120. All year he had just the two scores below 90. In SuperCoach he averaged 115, that year consisted of 17 tons, ten over 120 and had only three scores below 90.

He’s far from a one-season wonder. While 2017 was scores in the territory of elite midfielders the season earlier he was still the best backmen going around. In 2016 he averaged 101, had 12 tons and four of these were over 120. While the ceiling wasn’t as high, the healthy scoring basement was on display with only two scores beneath 80.

The 2016 season was even stronger in SuperCoach as he finished the season averaging 108.5. Across the season he posted 16 tons, six of them were over 120, and he failed to score over 80 in just three games.

The big selling point for Docherty coming off the back of his injuries isn’t just around the potential scoring. It’s the potential value that comes with it. He doesn’t have to reach the 2016-2017 scores to be an excellent selection.

In AFLFantasy he’s priced as a mid-range 70’s average, while in SuperCoach and DreamTeam it’s the low 80’s. This means that at a worst-case scenario of an 85 average he’s still delivering value for investment.

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MY TAKE

There is so much upside around the possibilities of what we could get with Sam Docherty. And sometimes as a fantasy coach, we can get caught in the hype of a player and fail to do a proper analysis. However, that’s not like the Coaches Panel to get all preseason hype on someone. Let’s crunch the facts and data on the selection.

Whenever a player comes back from a severe injury like an ACL, we often see some scoring regression over the first twelve months. Whether it be a midfielder like Tom Liberatore a key forward in Taylor Walker or running defender in Brodie Smith, history gives us enough data to suggest the majority of players come back and score below what they did pre-injury. Additionally ‘Doc’ isn’t coming off the one, but rather two ACL injuries. While everyone hopes he does get back to his best as quickly as possible, expectations do need to be tempered.

Carlton is also a very different team with new players and a vastly differing game style. Back in 2016 & 2017, the Baby Blues were starting yet another rebuild. Rather than getting blown off the back week in and week out Brendan Bolton devised a game style to help protect them. It was a highly defensive style of play. Only twice in those two seasons did the Blues kick over 100 points in-game. This slow, methodical ball movement often centred around the experience in the back half of Sam Docherty.

Carlton no longer player under that coach, or it’s game style. What we saw under David Teague and anticipate he will allow in 2020 is a high paced, open game plan where players are encouraged to move the ball with speed into forward 50. Will this be a factor in curtailing some of Docherty’s scores? Maybe, maybe not.

The Blues backline the majority of the team has turned over in the past few seasons. In the backline, during 2016-2017 it was only Kade Simpson along with Doc that could be trusted to the ball well rebounding out of the defensive half. Now, they are stacked for options. In addition to these two, they have recruited Nic Newman and Sam Petrevski-Seton, both of which are reliable distributors of the ball by foot. Will one be used in a different role or higher up the ground? Possibly. But again, the Carlton team is structured differently to the prime time years of Docherty.

Right now, Sam Docherty is the most highly selected ‘top line’ defensive premium. In some coaches eyes, that makes him the perfect player to take on. Long time supporters of the Coaches Panel will know we often encourage and advocate for being brave, bold and calculated with your decisions. Is there a risk of going against him? Your paying for him at the value of around an 80- average with the potential of a 10-20 point increase. Additionally, there could be a reward if you choose to take him on, and he only goes 85-90, and with such high ownership, it would be a substantial reward that sets you away from the pack.

Only hindsight will guide you into what was the right call, but like with any selection, you make this preseason sure to count the cost, way up the risks and rewards and then make this best and most informed decision you can.

Currently, Sam Docherty is locked away for me in all forms of the game. The move to start him isn’t aggressive at all, but if he gets through the preseason games, it’s going to be hard to say no. Additionally, if Carlton shows the desire to allow him to be the general both as a leader and accumulator, then he’s arguably the value selection of the year.

DRAFT DECISION

He’s got the potential to be not just your D1, but the #1 defender across all lines. However, you shouldn’t use an opening few rounds selections on him. He’s the perfect no-risk D2 selection, and a selection from the fifth round or beyond is certainly acceptable.

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#15 Most Relevant | Josh Kelly

Read Time:5 Minute, 3 Second

Nobody questions his scoring ability. But his durability over his career has been the cause for concern. Can Josh Kelly play every game in 2020?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Josh Kelly
Age: 24
Club: GWS Giants
Position: Midfielder

2019 Highest Score:
148 Vs North Melbourne (AFLFantasy)
124 Vs West Coast (SuperCoach)

2019 Average:
115.8 (AFLFantasy)
117.4 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $637,700
AFLFantasy Price: $860,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $838,100

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Josh Kelly is the complete package. A strong inside the contest, damaging on the outside. Whether it’s dancing around players at stoppages or using his silky skills on the outside to finish the game off, he is one of the modern-day greats in the AFL.

Last season from the 14 games he averaged 28 possessions, 11 of those were contested. On average he’d win five clearances, four inside ’50s, five tackles per game and nearly a goal per game.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he is the highest priced midfielder available as he has the top average from the 2019 season. Last year his seasonal average of 115.9 was made up of 12 scores of 100 or more. Seven of them were over 120m, and between round 9-15, his lowest score was 120. And only twice last year did he fail to reach triple figures

His SuperCoach numbers were very similar. A seasonal average of 117 consisted of 11 tons, with six of them 120 or higher. His lowest score was 82, and he failed to register the ton in only three games.

GWS Giants failed at the final hurdle last year in the Grand Final but look set yet again to challenge for the Premiership. The positive for prospective Kelly owners is that when the Giants win it has a substantial impact on his scoring. In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he averages 123.8 in wins as opposed to a very healthy 105.5 in losses. That’s a differential of 18.3. It’s similar in SUperCoach with an average of 124.3 when the giants win as opposed to 108.3 if they lose. That’s a gap of 15.9 points per game.

In the two seasons prior he played 36 of a possible 44 games. In that time for AFLFantasy/DreamTeam, he averaged 111 while for SuperCoach it was 113. Across all formats of the game, he posted 23 scores over 100 in those seasons combined which is a ton every 63% of games.

The concern isn’t around his scoring potential. The query is around games played. While those concerns are valid (and we’ll talk about them soon), he is in the rare territory of midfield premiums that has shown multiple years averaging well over 110 in the past three seasons.

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MY TAKE

Nobody would question that Josh Kelly is one of the elite midfielders in the AFL. Nor would anyone challenge if he’s a genuine uber premium in SuperCoach or AFLFantasy. What makes people uncertain about him is the fact that only twice in his six AFL seasons has he played 20 twenty games or more.

Those that do pick Kelly need to factor in based on the previous history the high likelihood that he will not play 22 games. The past gives us an understanding that he and the club are yet to get his body cherry ripe. The thing is that history doesn’t always repeat itself with these ‘injury-prone’ players.

Before last year, Brad Crouch had struggled to play a full season and yet was able to for the Crows and for the fantasy coaches that selected him. Before the 2018 season, Devon Smith had never played a full season but didn’t miss a game in 2018. The same thing happened to Taylor Adams in 2017, after never played more than 18 games in a year he played all 22 that year.

History shows, 22 games could be unlikely it’s far from a guarantee. We’ve seen plenty of examples of players overcoming history, learning how to manage themselves to play out a full season.

Unlike other GWS Giants we’ve spoken about in the 50 Most Relevant, I have zero concern on the scoring impact on Josh of a fully fit midfield. He’s too good of a player not to be the centrepiece of their midfield. He is equally as damaging when on the inside or outside of the contest.

A players ownership percentage should never be the only factor for selecting a player. Still, currently, across formats, Kelly is criminally low given what his potential is if you’ve found yourself split between him and another premium midfielder it could be the determining factor in picking him.

One thing is sure, he’s going to average enough top be a top tier midfielder, but will he play enough games for you?

DRAFT DECISION

He’s an M1, but I’m seeing him slide into the second round with his games played the reason for concern. Whether that’s a wise decision or not, it’s an excellent move for coaches who have a late first-rounder that can select him either there or on the turn into the second.

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#16 Most Relevant | Nat Fyfe

Read Time:5 Minute, 11 Second

It was a disappointing season for the Fremantle Dockers. However, for Nat Fyfe, it was the season that saw him win his second Brownlow Medal. Will the cavalry come for him in 2020 and will it impact his scoring?

PLAYER PROFILE

Name: Nat Fyfe
Age: 28
Club: Fremantle Dockers
Position: Midfield

2019 Highest Score:
133 Vs Carlton (AFLFantasy)
154 Vs Hawthorn (SuperCoach)

2019 Average:
104.9 (AFLFantasy)
120 (SuperCoach)

SuperCoach Price: $651,600
AFLFantasy Price: $779,000
AFLDreamTeam Price: $758,700

Embed from Getty Images

WHY IS HE RELEVANT?

Nat Fyfe is one of the premier midfielders in the league. No matter where on the ground he plays he’s unmatched in almost every area of the game. Inside the contest, he’s a bull, in the air he’s strong and imposing and to top it all of when need he’s a daunting presence inside forward 50 for any defender to stop him.

2019 was a strong personal season for the Fremantle captain. He was awarded his third club best and fairest, recognised as captain this year of all Australian side and won his second Brownlow Medal. Individual accolades like this will see him go down in history as an all-time great.

From his 20 games he averaged 30 possesions, 18 of them were contested, went at 70% efficiency, averaged eight clearances a game and five inside ’50s. Across the entire AFL, he ranked third for contested possessions, sixth for clearances and tenth for total disposals.

In AFLFantasy/DreamTeam he was ranked 15th for all midfielders ending the year with an average of 104.9. It featured fourteen scores over the ton, with seven of them over 120. Along with a high frequency of hundreds, he rarely let owners down with a poor score. Just twice throughout the season did he dip below 75.

Despite missing two games in the season, he ranked eighth in SuperCoach for total points of all midfielders and is one of only three available that averaged over 120 last year. In 85% of games last year (17) he scored one hundred or more. Of those 17 tons, 12 of them were over 120, and an insane six were 140 or higher. Across the season he had only three games where he didn’t reach triple figures and ended the season averaging 120.

Take a look at his scoring consistency in terms of averages since 2013.

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MY TAKE

The further up the list of the 50 most relevant we get, the harder it is to dismiss selecting a player. More often than not, now it will be personal preferences’ or small variables that create the reason for non-selection.

Based on previous history coaches who play AFLFantasy/DreamTeam would attempt to build the case that Nat Fyfe doesn’t score beyond ton frequently enough to start him. While it is true he’s playing style lends itself to more rewards in SuperCoach he’s far from someone to discount.

In a fourteen game stretch last year between round 6-21 he averaged he 109 and had only three games that he didn’t post a ton. Yes, it’s not a full season, but with a seasonal average of 105 (ranked 15 for midfielders) he’s shown he’s capable of scoring well enough that when you time the run, he’s a genuine candidate.

The only compelling case you can create for passing on Nat Fyfe is his durability. Only three times across his career has he played 20 games or more and is yet to complete a full season. While it is a concern, it shouldn’t be a complete deterrent to starting with him.

Whatever side of the selected coin you land on, you have an element of risk with Fyfe, especially in SuperCoach. Should you choose to select him, the risk is that the durability concern becomes real and your forced to either trade or use your bench cover on field. The alternate side is that his scoring is so strong he’s one of only a handful of midfielders capable of scoring multiple 140+ over an extended period and taking a season away from you.

In SuperCoach, it’s a classic case of risk vs reward and the risk you’d prefer to be on the side of will inform your decision of what’s right for your team.

Don’t forget, 12 months ago Brad Crouch was ‘injury-prone’ and had never played 22 games. He had no problems doing it in 2019. Just because someone has a history, it doesn’t automatically dictate their future. Should it inform your decision? Absolutely! But not determine it.

DRAFT DECISION

In SuperCoach, Fyfe is a natural first-round selection. This year if you have a late range pick, there is every chance he’ll fall to you as some may be turned away due to his durability concerns. Gosh, he might be available on the turn early in the second which would be a steal.
In AFLFantasy formats, I think the earliest you’ll have to jump for him is the third round. He could drift into the early fourth, but his name value let alone scoring potential would be a reason he doesn’t slide any further. A Strong M2 candidate and wouldn’t be the worst M1 if you’d locked away two superstar selections in the defence, forward or ruck line.

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